InvestMacro

GBP/USD Hits New High: The Pound Defies Market Pressures

The British pound has reached another three-year peak against the US dollar, stabilising around 1.3400.

Key factors driving GBP/USD strength

Sterling is closing April with its strongest monthly performance since November 2023, gaining over 3% against the US dollar.

Two key factors support the pound’s resilience:

Monetary policy divergence – Markets expect the Bank of England (BoE) to slow the pace of interest rate cuts compared to other central banks. Current projections suggest the BoE will reduce rates by 85 basis points in 2025, roughly in line with expectations for the US Federal Reserve.
Dollar alternatives in demand – Investors seek alternatives to the US dollar, and the UK appears less vulnerable to US tariff risks. A 90-day moratorium on increased US tariffs expires in late July, renewing global economic uncertainties.

Against this backdrop, the UK and its currency appear more stable than many peers.

Technical analysis: GBP/USD

H4 chart

GBP/USD continues to consolidate around 1.3344, with the range now extending to 1.3440.
A downside retest of 1.3344 is expected, followed by potential upward momentum towards 1.3455, defining the range boundaries.
A break below consolidation could trigger a downward wave targeting 1.3080 as the initial objective.
The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line above zero but poised for a decline.

H1 chart

The pair has broken above 1.3344, achieving a local target at 1.3440
A corrective decline towards 1.3344 is anticipated before potential renewed growth towards 1.3455
The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, with its signal line below 20 and primed for an upward move towards 80

Conclusion

The pound remains defensive yet strong, buoyed by relative monetary policy stability and its appeal as a dollar alternative. Technically, the pair is testing key levels, with further direction contingent on consolidation breaks.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Forex and Currency News Opinions

28 Apr

Trade tensions remain in focus. ECB aims at further rate cuts

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.05% on Friday (+3.10% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.74% (for the week +5.59%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped 1.14% (for the week +7.82%). The US stocks closed higher on Friday, posting their fourth consecutive session of gains, helped by strength in large technology companies. Alphabet shares rose by 1.5% after beating earnings expectations, announcing its first-ever dividend, and revealing a $70 billion share repurchase plan. Tesla shares are up 9.8% after unveiling new rules for self-driving cars. Intel is down 7% due to weak expectations, and T-Mobile is down 11% due to low subscriber growth.

President Trump’s recent statements on tariffs have left trade tensions in the spotlight. Trump’s suggestion of 50% tariffs as a “total victory” added uncertainty, and Beijing disputed claims of ongoing negotiations, which offset optimism from China’s decision to exempt some US goods from tariffs.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index showed inflation expectations for the year ahead jumped to 6.5%, the highest since 1981. However, the figure was slightly lower than the 6.7% in the preliminary release. Long-term inflation expectations rose to 4.4% from 4.1%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.81% (for the week +3.77%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.45% higher (for the week +3.07%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.33% (for the week +3.35%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.09% higher (for the week +1.69%). This is the fourth consecutive session of gains, helped by strong corporate results across Europe and renewed hopes of easing trade tensions between the US and China. Reports that China may slap a 125% tariff on some US imports and President Trump’s more conciliatory tone toward Beijing eased fears of a potentially devastating global trade war.

European Central Bank (ECB) governors are becoming increasingly confident of cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues its downward march. Data from the Eurozone also showed that business activity growth slowed this month, and wage growth is expected to fall significantly. Crucially for inflation, the 20% tariffs tentatively imposed by Trump on European goods have been less harsh than the ECB had anticipated, and the risk of retaliatory measures from the European Union has so far been averted.

WTI crude oil prices rose nearly negative 0.4% to settle at $63/bbl on Friday, but posted a weekly loss of more than positive 1% amid lingering oversupply concerns and uncertainty over US-China trade talks. Market sentiment remained cautious as there were reports that the US and Russia are moving towards ending the conflict in Ukraine, although key terms have yet to be defined. Adding to geopolitical tensions was the fact that the US imposed new sanctions this week against a key Iranian figure involved in the transportation of oil and liquefied natural gas.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) slipped to as low as $33.30 an ounce on Friday, trimming gains made earlier in the week as signs of easing global trade tensions drove the dollar higher, putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 3.33%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 4.34%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive 2.66%.

China remains confident of achieving its 2025 economic growth target of around 5%. Despite the negative impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, Chinese policymakers are optimistic that the US will soften its stance first, allowing Beijing to proceed with its planned stimulus measures. Central Bank deputy governor Zou Lan reiterated the continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, increased economic support and efforts to keep the yuan stable.

Singapore’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 2.1% in Q1 2025, up from 1.9% in the previous three quarters, according to Express estimates. This is the highest unemployment rate in a year, driven by slowing economic activity and escalating global trade tensions. The worsening economic outlook is expected to affect companies’ hiring and wage expectations.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,525.21 +40.44 (+0.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,113.50 +20.10 (+0.050%)

DAX (DE40) 22,242.45 +177.94 (+0.81%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,415.25 +7.81 (+0.093%)

USD Index 99.59 +0.21 (+0.21%)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Apr

Gold Under Pressure as Market Hopes for US-China Trade Progress

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold fell on Monday, dropping to 3,290 USD per troy ounce amid easing market tensions.

Key factors driving gold’s decline

The sell-off in the safe-haven asset was driven by reduced risk aversion, as trade tensions between the US and China showed signs of easing. This weakened gold’s appeal as a traditional hedge against uncertainty.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump hinted at a potential softening of his tough trade stance towards China, signalling the possibility of tariff negotiations. On Friday, China exempted certain US goods from its 25% tariffs, though Beijing stopped short of confirming any scheduled trade talks with Washington.

Additional downward pressure came from a strengthening US dollar, which made dollar-priced gold more expensive for foreign investors.

Upcoming US economic data in focus. This week, a raft of key US economic indicators will be released, including:

The first estimate of Q1 2025 GDP
Core PCE inflation data for March
April employment figures

These reports could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves and the broader economic outlook.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD is forming the fifth structure in the first wave of decline to the 3,232 level. A move to this target level seems likely. Further, a correction to the level of 3,365 is possible. After completing this correction, a new wave of decline to the 3,100 level is probable. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line under the zero level and directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD has formed a consolidation range around the level of 3,300, and with an exit down, a decline to 3,232 is probable. Today, the fifth wave of the decline to at least 3,232 seems highly likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under the 50 level and directed strictly downwards to the 20 level.

Conclusion

Gold remains vulnerable to further losses amid improving US-China trade sentiment and a stronger dollar. Traders will closely monitor upcoming US data for further directional cues.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Apr

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index Bets into Bearish territory

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (16,693 contracts) with the British Pound (13,981 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,896 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (6,183 contracts), the Japanese Yen (5,959 contracts), the Australian Dollar (4,266 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,110 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (855 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-4,252 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,802 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-1,392 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators drop US Dollar Index Bets into Bearish territory

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued decrease in sentiment for the US Dollar Index. Speculative positions for the USD Index declined this week by -2,802 contracts and have fallen in five out of the last six weeks. This amounts to a total decline of approximately -10,000 net contracts over the past six weeks.

The deterioration in sentiment has brought the Dollar Index into its first bearish position (currently at -974 net contracts) since December, a span of 19 weeks dating back to December 10th 2024.

The Dollar Index (DXY) price has been falling sharply as well and the DXY closed this week under the major 100.00 level for the first time since a very brief spell in July of 2023. The DXY has tested this level numerous times over the past few years but has bounced higher each time. The DXY price has experienced a sharp decrease since January with an approximate decline by 10% which is a significant move for a major currency in a short amount of time.

The current pricing for the DXY is oversold and could bring dip buyers into the market but continued bearish action would bring the 95 level into play which looks to be the next major historical support level. The next level lower would by the 92-93 area which has not been touched since 2021.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (100 percent) are at extreme high levels and lead the currency markets this week. The Canadian Dollar (58 percent) and the EuroFX (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent), Bitcoin (34 percent) and the Australian Dollar (38 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (10.5 percent)
EuroFX (53.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (45.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (39.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (98.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (50.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (34.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (45.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (98.8 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (64.1 percent)

Canadian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (34 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (23 percent), the EuroFX (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-37 percent), Australian Dollar (-5 percent) and the British Pound (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-36.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-26.8 percent)
EuroFX (19.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (30.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-5.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (18.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-4.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (30.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (7.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (5.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-50.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.9	28.2	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.8	22.2	12.0
– Net Position:	-974	1,985	-1,011
– Gross Longs:	18,696	9,286	2,951
– Gross Shorts:	19,670	7,301	3,962
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.7	98.0	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.9	38.0	-19.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.8	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	72.2	6.0
– Net Position:	65,028	-117,941	52,913
– Gross Longs:	196,205	401,257	96,353
– Gross Shorts:	131,177	519,198	43,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	41.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-23.9	40.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 13,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	30.3	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	44.5	13.6
– Net Position:	20,490	-25,439	4,949
– Gross Longs:	94,021	54,477	29,322
– Gross Shorts:	73,531	79,916	24,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	51.3	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	2.8	3.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a new all-time record high net position of 177,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 171,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.6	28.6	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	85.8	6.1
– Net Position:	177,814	-200,922	23,108
– Gross Longs:	202,373	100,299	44,643
– Gross Shorts:	24,559	301,221	21,535
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-13.1	18.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	74.4	18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	37.7	19.8
– Net Position:	-25,474	26,742	-1,268
– Gross Longs:	5,322	54,226	13,198
– Gross Shorts:	30,796	27,484	14,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	43.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-25.2	17.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -67,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 16,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	52.9	11.9
– Net Position:	-67,167	73,173	-6,006
– Gross Longs:	18,357	205,325	23,821
– Gross Shorts:	85,524	132,152	29,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	44.6	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-35.2	22.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -54,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	65.8	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.9	39.4	10.5
– Net Position:	-54,582	50,430	4,152
– Gross Longs:	27,175	125,583	24,156
– Gross Shorts:	81,757	75,153	20,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	60.0	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	-3.0	29.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	77.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.7	33.3	7.2
– Net Position:	-26,895	27,449	-554
– Gross Longs:	9,897	48,333	3,948
– Gross Shorts:	36,792	20,884	4,502
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	65.0	46.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-31.3	23.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,896 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	43.2	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	75.7	2.8
– Net Position:	41,165	-42,348	1,183
– Gross Longs:	67,624	56,341	4,828
– Gross Shorts:	26,459	98,689	3,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	52.4	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-6.2	5.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 49,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.2	23.5	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	81.5	2.2
– Net Position:	49,887	-51,682	1,795
– Gross Longs:	63,534	21,010	3,743
– Gross Shorts:	13,647	72,692	1,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.7	0.4	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-7.4	-0.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -806 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.8	3.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.6	1.7	3.8
– Net Position:	-806	612	194
– Gross Longs:	23,058	1,080	1,253
– Gross Shorts:	23,864	468	1,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	78.7	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.9	47.7	25.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

27 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Yen, BRL, 5-Year & Dollar Index lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 22nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position, once again, comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range as the speculator net positioning continues to make new all-time highs for the 3rd week in a row.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score increased by 12.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 177,814 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,959 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up next in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is now at a 99.7 percent score compared to its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.6 this week. The speculator position registered 49,887 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 855 contracts in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 97.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 23.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 37,680 net contracts this week with an increase by 5,886 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Nikkei 225

The Nikkei 225 speculator position comes in at number four in the extreme standings this week as the Nikkei 225 speculator level is at a 96.4 percent score over its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 35.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,904 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,025 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the VIX speculator level at a 89.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled 10.8 this week.

The speculator position sits at -5,745 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,552 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or the bottom of the 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,191,434 net contracts this week with a decrease of -129,859 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as USD sentiment has been deteriorating. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at just a 4.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -36.9 this week. The speculator position was -974 net contracts this week with a reduction of -2,802 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 6.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -93,969 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,643 contracts in the speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish standing with the MidCap400 speculator level at a 11.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.4 this week while the speculator position totaled -86 net contracts this week with a tiny change of 5 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Finally, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish standing for this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 13.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.2 this week and the speculator position was -1,297,995 net contracts this week with a drop of -43,222 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

26 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,288 contracts) with Silver (777 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-26,832 contracts), Palladium (-835 contracts), Platinum (-357 contracts) and with Steel (-327 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

The Gold speculator bets continued their recent cool off over the past couple of months despite the metal’s rapid ascent to all-time high levels. Gold speculator positions have now fallen in nine out of the past eleven weeks and since February 12th, gold speculator bets have been on the decline with -127,130 contracts coming out of the bullish position that was at +302,508 contracts on February 4th. The gold futures price this week surged to an all-time high above $3,500 but did u-turn mid-week and closed the week almost unchanged at right around $3,300.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (82 percent) and Silver (73 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (56 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (23 percent) and Platinum (29 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (46.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (57.0 percent)
Silver (72.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (71.7 percent)
Copper (56.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.4 percent)
Platinum (29.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (30.2 percent)
Palladium (23.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (29.3 percent)
Steel (81.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (83.1 percent)

Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only market with a positive trend.

Platinum (-24 percent), Gold (-23 percent) and Silver (-19 percent) lead the downside trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.6 percent)
Silver (-18.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.8 percent)
Copper (5.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.0 percent)
Platinum (-23.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-18.5 percent)
Palladium (-17.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.2 percent)
Steel (-15.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 175,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -26,832 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.6	19.6	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	63.0	5.2
– Net Position:	175,378	-202,268	26,890
– Gross Longs:	258,896	91,128	50,904
– Gross Shorts:	83,518	293,396	24,014
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	49.5	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	22.7	-8.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	27.6	20.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	71.4	7.0
– Net Position:	44,726	-64,374	19,648
– Gross Longs:	64,693	40,479	29,975
– Gross Shorts:	19,967	104,853	10,327
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	23.2	65.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	14.4	8.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	32.1	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	44.2	6.8
– Net Position:	24,765	-23,650	-1,115
– Gross Longs:	78,607	63,199	12,266
– Gross Shorts:	53,842	86,849	13,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	50.1	11.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-1.4	-27.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.9	23.7	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.6	38.7	5.3
– Net Position:	5,677	-11,652	5,975
– Gross Longs:	45,094	18,459	10,067
– Gross Shorts:	39,417	30,111	4,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	66.8	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	21.7	5.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -10,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	53.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.1	5.2	6.9
– Net Position:	-10,843	9,913	930
– Gross Longs:	6,365	10,984	2,337
– Gross Shorts:	17,208	1,071	1,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	10.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	72.9	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	18.2	-2.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	64.4	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	67.2	0.6
– Net Position:	1,118	-1,033	-85
– Gross Longs:	11,012	24,447	147
– Gross Shorts:	9,894	25,480	232
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.6	20.1	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	17.1	-29.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

26 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-M & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-M & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (51,981 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (31,649 contracts) and the SOFR 1-Month (23,624 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-129,859 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-43,222 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-27,545 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-19,489 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-6,902 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-5,442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (80 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The Fed Funds (52 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the the 10-Year Bond (23 percent), the SOFR 3-Months (38 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (52.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (13.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (47.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (45.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (48.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (79.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (90.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (48.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (42.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (38.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (35.7 percent)

Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (34 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bond (-42.7 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (43.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-5.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-15.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-21.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-42.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (1.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-10.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-17.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (18.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,975 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	67.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	67.5	1.6
– Net Position:	-12,417	3,500	8,917
– Gross Longs:	426,751	1,637,172	46,896
– Gross Shorts:	439,168	1,633,672	37,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	42.7	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.8	-32.1	-8.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -423,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 51,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -475,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	60.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	56.2	0.2
– Net Position:	-423,810	420,573	3,237
– Gross Longs:	1,355,787	6,255,618	28,957
– Gross Shorts:	1,779,597	5,835,045	25,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.3	85.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-15.4	-14.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 23,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	69.6	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	64.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-80,790	80,731	59
– Gross Longs:	213,848	1,055,148	621
– Gross Shorts:	294,638	974,417	562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	51.4	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	5.5	51.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,297,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -43,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,254,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	79.1	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	50.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,297,995	1,181,471	116,524
– Gross Longs:	545,259	3,234,494	238,373
– Gross Shorts:	1,843,254	2,053,023	121,849
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.0	87.5	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	7.8	-6.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,191,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -129,859 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,061,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	84.0	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	54.0	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,191,434	1,997,863	193,571
– Gross Longs:	536,772	5,596,235	429,630
– Gross Shorts:	2,728,206	3,598,372	236,059
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	17.4	4.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -906,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 31,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -937,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	77.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	61.3	6.6
– Net Position:	-906,106	764,191	141,915
– Gross Longs:	495,027	3,663,652	452,338
– Gross Shorts:	1,401,133	2,899,461	310,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	72.3	94.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	15.0	13.5

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -167,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	68.2	11.1
– Net Position:	-167,888	192,447	-24,559
– Gross Longs:	277,763	1,725,230	224,733
– Gross Shorts:	445,651	1,532,783	249,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.6	38.1	88.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.7	29.4	29.2

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -107,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -100,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	75.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	74.1	7.6
– Net Position:	-107,687	30,179	77,508
– Gross Longs:	202,519	1,371,696	214,303
– Gross Shorts:	310,206	1,341,517	136,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	47.7	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	26.2	-12.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -247,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -27,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -220,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	71.4	7.5
– Net Position:	-247,602	216,313	31,289
– Gross Longs:	121,329	1,557,962	173,007
– Gross Shorts:	368,931	1,341,649	141,718
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	22.5	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-0.8	-2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

26 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (13,275 contracts) with Live Cattle (7,421 contracts), Soybeans (5,523 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,796 contracts), Sugar (3,421 contracts), Cotton (3,378 contracts), Coffee (1,122 contracts) and Cocoa (966 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-14,339 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,840 contracts) and with Wheat (-5,643 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (76 percent) and Soybean Oil (75 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (66 percent), Soybeans (65 percent) and Corn (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (7 percent) and Soybean Meal (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were Sugar (21 percent) and Cotton (23 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (63.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.1 percent)
Sugar (21.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.1 percent)
Coffee (65.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (64.6 percent)
Soybeans (64.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (75.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (72.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (14.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.5 percent)
Live Cattle (76.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (69.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (52.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (41.8 percent)
Cotton (22.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (25.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (24.9 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.0 percent)

Soybean Oil & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (34 percent) and Cotton (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Sugar (8 percent) and Soybean Meal (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Corn (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-13.2 percent)
Sugar (7.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-14.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-18.3 percent)
Soybeans (17.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (22.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (13.0 percent)
Live Cattle (1.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-22.1 percent)
Cotton (19.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.5 percent)
Cocoa (-1.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-2.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 219,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 234,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	45.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	54.8	10.5
– Net Position:	219,843	-161,479	-58,364
– Gross Longs:	450,712	773,840	121,656
– Gross Shorts:	230,869	935,319	180,020
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	39.5	38.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.5	-7.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 33,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	55.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	59.7	7.0
– Net Position:	33,235	-32,502	-733
– Gross Longs:	193,078	463,598	57,180
– Gross Shorts:	159,843	496,100	57,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	81.8	19.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-3.1	-17.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	41.9	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	71.5	3.9
– Net Position:	41,056	-43,332	2,276
– Gross Longs:	51,215	61,110	8,005
– Gross Shorts:	10,159	104,442	5,729
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	35.6	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	15.6	-15.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 55,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	52.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	55.8	8.2
– Net Position:	55,684	-31,452	-24,232
– Gross Longs:	191,535	422,467	42,698
– Gross Shorts:	135,851	453,919	66,930
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.8	35.9	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-20.3	20.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	48.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	60.7	4.5
– Net Position:	60,391	-66,889	6,498
– Gross Longs:	133,444	273,789	31,901
– Gross Shorts:	73,053	340,678	25,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	27.5	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.2	-34.3	21.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -30,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.9	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	46.7	5.1
– Net Position:	-30,976	13,581	17,395
– Gross Longs:	114,769	295,935	48,216
– Gross Shorts:	145,745	282,354	30,821
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.7	83.1	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-5.9	3.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 99,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	30.2	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	53.2	14.1
– Net Position:	99,006	-78,413	-20,593
– Gross Longs:	159,752	103,109	27,583
– Gross Shorts:	60,746	181,522	48,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.3	26.7	24.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.6	1.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	35.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	47.0	8.4
– Net Position:	31,296	-29,609	-1,687
– Gross Longs:	93,049	93,132	20,201
– Gross Shorts:	61,753	122,741	21,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	45.4	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.2	4.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	49.7	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	37.0	6.0
– Net Position:	-25,078	27,632	-2,554
– Gross Longs:	60,797	108,112	10,492
– Gross Shorts:	85,875	80,480	13,046
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.5	80.5	1.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-16.4	-19.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	41.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	63.1	6.6
– Net Position:	15,577	-18,970	3,393
– Gross Longs:	25,112	35,919	9,148
– Gross Shorts:	9,535	54,889	5,755
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	74.6	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	2.0	-3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -93,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	38.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	18.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-93,969	90,745	3,224
– Gross Longs:	114,514	173,053	35,271
– Gross Shorts:	208,483	82,308	32,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	93.7	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.1	11.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

26 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 22nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by MSCI EAFE & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (15,219 contracts) with the VIX (11,552 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (5,886 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,025 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (646 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-12,838 contracts) and with the Russell-Mini (-7,398 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (98 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (96 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (89 percent) and the Russell-Mini (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

The lowest strength score this week was the DowJones-Mini (62 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (89.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (61.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (60.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (97.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (77.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (96.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (79.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (74.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (52.8 percent)

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (35 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (23 percent) and the VIX (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-26 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (10.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (20.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-28.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-17.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-1.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (23.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (15.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (35.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (25.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-26.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-20.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	43.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	42.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-5,745	3,019	2,726
– Gross Longs:	78,508	119,924	28,192
– Gross Shorts:	84,253	116,905	25,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.4	10.5	81.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-14.0	23.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -75,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	74.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	72.9	8.9
– Net Position:	-75,935	36,396	39,539
– Gross Longs:	260,930	1,646,290	236,445
– Gross Shorts:	336,865	1,609,894	196,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	40.3	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.2	38.0	-38.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	66.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	66.0	13.6
– Net Position:	887	217	-1,104
– Gross Longs:	9,623	52,324	9,616
– Gross Shorts:	8,736	52,107	10,720
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.7	38.6	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	6.8	-21.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 37,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	53.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	68.8	14.0
– Net Position:	37,680	-37,245	-435
– Gross Longs:	76,663	129,366	33,405
– Gross Shorts:	38,983	166,611	33,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	13.5	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.2	10.2	-46.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	72.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	73.1	5.8
– Net Position:	-6,719	-4,795	11,514
– Gross Longs:	83,303	334,265	38,247
– Gross Shorts:	90,022	339,060	26,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	21.0	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-0.6	7.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	60.5	19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.5	75.4	22.1
– Net Position:	1,904	-1,590	-314
– Gross Longs:	2,169	6,480	2,056
– Gross Shorts:	265	8,070	2,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.4	15.4	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.0	-26.7	-5.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	88.4	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	87.0	1.3
– Net Position:	-11,050	6,859	4,191
– Gross Longs:	41,995	412,914	10,383
– Gross Shorts:	53,045	406,055	6,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	34.5	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	25.9	-14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

25 Apr

The Mexican peso strengthened to a 6-month high. Natural gas prices fell to a 5-month low

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones (US30) was up 1.23% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.03%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 2.79%. The US stocks rose on Thursday, posting gains for the third straight session, as technology shares led gains and investors weighed mixed signals from the Trump administration on tariffs and trade talks with China. Hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut also strengthened after the Cleveland Fed president said there could be action in June if supported by data.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 19.6 per US dollar, hitting its highest level in six months, helped by the general weakening of the US dollar and expectations of a continued hawkish stance by the Bank of Mexico. Mexico’s wide real rate differential continues to attract robust carry-trade inflows, while a “very productive” conversation between Presidents Trump and Sheinbaum eased concerns over potential US tariffs. In addition, stable oil export revenues support Mexico’s external accounts.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.47%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.27% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.05% yesterday. European stock indices reversed early losses and closed higher on Thursday, recording three consecutive days of gains, helped by a positive session on Wall Street. Despite this, the German government lowered its economic growth forecast 2025, predicting stagnation instead of 0.3% growth, citing ongoing global uncertainty caused by trade tensions.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell to $2.9/MMBtu, the lowest in five months, amid lower gas prices in major European and Asian centers amid oversupply and uncertain demand due to macroeconomic factors. The new data showed that gas production in the lower 48 US states rose to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day in April, a record high. This coincided with warmer-than-normal temperatures, which are expected to persist through early May, reducing demand for gas-intensive heating.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.49% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 0.35%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.74%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed 0.60%. China has begun issuing special bonds to guard against rising trade tensions. Beijing also cut its list of sectors negative for foreign investment from 117 to 106, signaling a desire to further open up the market.

The New Zealand dollar slid to around USD0.598 on Friday but remained on track for a third straight weekly gain amid optimism over trade talks between the US and China. Earlier this week, Trump hinted at softening his aggressive trade stance toward China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, by proposing significantly reducing tariffs on Chinese imports. Domestically, expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand continue to weigh on the currency. Markets remain focused on a 25bp rate cut at the RBNZ’s May meeting, with rates likely to reach the 2.75% level by year-end.

On Friday, the Australian dollar dipped below US$0.64, trimming gains from the previous session as the US dollar strengthened on signs of easing global trade tensions. On the domestic front, data released earlier this week showed that Australia’s private sector activity rose for the seventh consecutive month in April, thanks to strong growth in both manufacturing and services. Despite the positive economic data, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points again in May as the country prepares for the potential economic impact of the recently imposed US tariffs.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,484.77 +108.91 (+2.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,093.40 +486.83 (+1.23%)

DAX (DE40) 22,064.51 +102.54 (+0.47%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,407.44 +4.26 (+0.05%)

USD index 99.31 -0.54 (-0.54%)

News feed for: 2025.04.25

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Switzerland SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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