InvestMacro

Speculators push Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (14,984 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (783 contracts), Bitcoin (759 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (146 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,657 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,772 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,345 contracts), the British Pound (-5,790 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,816 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-666 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

Leading the speculator changes this week for the major currency markets was the Brazilian Real, which saw a gain of almost 15,000 speculator contracts on the week. This was the second straight week of gains for the Brazilian Real and the third time out of the last four weeks that speculator bets have increased. Overall, the Real position is at +39,582 contracts, which is the best mark over the last five weeks. The Real has been at least +20,000 or above speculator contracts for the last 24 weeks in a row.

The Brazilian Real exchange rate versus the U.S. Dollar rose for a second straight week this week and continues to be in an uptrend after falling to a record low to end December. Overall, for the year of 2025, the Brazilian Real is up by over 12% while since the December bottoming, the Brazilian Real is up by over 16.65%.

Next up, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a small edge higher in their weekly speculator bets. The U.S. Dollar Index speculator positions rose by 783 contracts this week following two weeks of decreases. At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index standing is at -6,247 contracts, and overall the USD positioning has now been in a negative or bearish level for nine consecutive weeks with a speculator strength score of just 1.8% (out of a 0 to 100 range), illustrating the current weakness of the U.S. Dollar.

In the exchange rate markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell for a second straight week and closed the week at 97.695 exchange rate. The dollar had rebounded all the way up to the 100 level a couple of weeks ago but found resistance and got pushed back down. Overall, since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index is down by over 12%.

British Pound Sterling led weekly market prices

The major currency market prices did not see much movement this week with no currency rising or falling by over 1%. The leader in price gains was the British Pound Sterling which was higher by 0.78% on the week. The Euro came in next with a rise of 0.50%, followed by the Brazilian Real at 0.44%. Bitcoin was higher by 0.42%, the Japanese Yen was slightly higher by 0.35%, followed by the Swiss Franc at 0.20%.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar was slightly lower at -0.23%, followed by the US Dollar Index, which saw a dip by -0.33%. The Canadian Dollar was at -0.41%, the New Zealand Dollar at -0.43%, and the biggest loser in the week was the Mexican Peso at -0.77%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (77 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (71 percent), Mexican Peso (60 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.0 percent)
EuroFX (72.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (71.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (58.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.5 percent)
Bitcoin (37.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.9 percent)

Bitcoin, Peso & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (21 percent), the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.3 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-33.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-32.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.3 percent)
Bitcoin (21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	37.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	20.5	10.1
– Net Position:	-6,247	5,122	1,125
– Gross Longs:	12,729	11,370	4,202
– Gross Shorts:	18,976	6,248	3,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	96.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.0	26.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 115,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	55.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	75.8	5.4
– Net Position:	115,431	-167,063	51,632
– Gross Longs:	246,299	458,037	96,093
– Gross Shorts:	130,868	625,100	44,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	24.3	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.2	-3.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	50.5	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.2	34.1	12.4
– Net Position:	-39,093	35,517	3,576
– Gross Longs:	73,736	109,217	30,321
– Gross Shorts:	112,829	73,700	26,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	78.6	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.5	32.9	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	41.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	63.0	10.1
– Net Position:	74,234	-73,895	-339
– Gross Longs:	164,693	147,170	35,172
– Gross Shorts:	90,459	221,065	35,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	32.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-53.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	75.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	34.2	22.7
– Net Position:	-28,043	33,224	-5,181
– Gross Longs:	6,091	60,689	13,086
– Gross Shorts:	34,134	27,465	18,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	53.7	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	18.7	-31.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	73.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	31.3	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,077	93,571	-3,494
– Gross Longs:	20,898	162,833	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	110,975	69,262	26,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	52.8	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.0	-17.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -87,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	66.8	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.3	17.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-87,905	84,233	3,672
– Gross Longs:	25,631	114,396	24,097
– Gross Shorts:	113,536	30,163	20,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	80.1	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.9	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	45.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-4,687	5,799	-1,112
– Gross Longs:	11,160	27,937	3,806
– Gross Shorts:	15,847	22,138	4,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	40.7	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	13.0	-34.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	37.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	72.8	1.6
– Net Position:	61,239	-64,848	3,609
– Gross Longs:	106,539	67,876	6,499
– Gross Shorts:	45,300	132,724	2,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.9	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.6	-9.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	34.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	76.4	0.8
– Net Position:	39,582	-43,069	3,487
– Gross Longs:	59,388	35,788	4,287
– Gross Shorts:	19,806	78,857	800
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	22.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	8.1	14.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	4.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	4.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-742	118	624
– Gross Longs:	23,438	1,371	1,624
– Gross Shorts:	24,180	1,253	1,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	59.2	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-26.4	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Aug

Speculator Extremes: Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the Nasdaq-Mini speculator level currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled an increase by 22 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 42,312 net contracts this week with a gain of 8,476 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level is now at a 99 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 7,794 net contracts this week with a weekly increase by 1,940 contracts in speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level is at a 93 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -209,132 net contracts this week with a rise of 19,235 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position rounds out the top four in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Lean Hogs speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 73,927 net contracts this week with a small boost by 789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,141 net contracts this week with a dip of -234 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the 5-Year speculator level sits at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline of -4 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -2,566,369 net contracts this week with a drop by -29,492 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -51 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 116,742 net contracts this week with a reduction by -25,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week with the USD Index speculator level resides at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -6,247 net contracts this week with a gain of 783 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Sugar speculator level is at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the speculator strength score was 0 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -68,512 net contracts this week with a boost by 8,460 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

Next, the 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -1,379,597 net contracts this week with a drop by -54,074 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Stock Market News

17 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (7,525 contracts) with Platinum (1,126 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-7,565 contracts), Silver (-6,390 contracts), Palladium (-1,161 contracts) and with Steel (-626 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Weekly Metals Performance

The metals markets on the week were mostly lower as 4 out of the 6 markets saw declining prices. Platinum led the week with a 0.58% increase, while Copper rose by 0.54%. Palladium was lower by -0.5%, Silver was down by -1.09% and Gold was down by -1.80%. Steel was the biggest loser on the week with a -3.33% decrease.

In the longer term, over the last 90 days, all these markets are higher, with Copper seeing just a 4.65% rise and is the smallest gainer over 90 days. Palladium, Silver, and Steel are all up by over 20% in the last 90 days, while Gold is up by 12.32%. Platinum is the biggest mover over the last 90 days with a gain of 42.67%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (78 percent) and Silver (71 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.2 percent)
Silver (71.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.3 percent)
Copper (59.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.5 percent)
Platinum (58.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.4 percent)
Palladium (78.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.9 percent)
Steel (59.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.0 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (10 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.0 percent)
Silver (-23.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.4 percent)
Copper (-5.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.1 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.2 percent)
Palladium (7.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.3 percent)
Steel (-8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 229,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 237,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.6	14.2	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	73.2	4.5
– Net Position:	229,485	-263,065	33,580
– Gross Longs:	288,115	63,427	53,656
– Gross Shorts:	58,630	326,492	20,076
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.4	27.6	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-9.7	-1.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 44,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	26.4	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	68.9	6.7
– Net Position:	44,268	-66,421	22,153
– Gross Longs:	66,252	41,331	32,647
– Gross Shorts:	21,984	107,752	10,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	21.5	77.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	19.9	4.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	33.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	52.6	4.7
– Net Position:	28,211	-38,033	9,822
– Gross Longs:	58,802	63,855	19,016
– Gross Shorts:	30,591	101,888	9,194
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	37.7	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	-0.6	37.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 17,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	19.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	47.2	5.4
– Net Position:	17,788	-23,015	5,227
– Gross Longs:	47,458	15,571	9,606
– Gross Shorts:	29,670	38,586	4,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.0	41.3	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.5	-3.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,335 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.6	34.1	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	26.4	5.5
– Net Position:	-3,496	1,558	1,938
– Gross Longs:	8,005	6,891	3,049
– Gross Shorts:	11,501	5,333	1,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.2	9.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-10.2	14.0

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	77.3	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	-718	501	217
– Gross Longs:	4,023	17,306	444
– Gross Shorts:	4,741	16,805	227
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	40.3	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	8.9	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

17 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (158,614 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (49,646 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19,235 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (17,611 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-54,074 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-29,492 contracts), the Fed Funds (-6,397 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-3,468 contracts) and with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-699 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Bond market prices this week

The major US bond market prices this week were pretty subdued, with the 3-month secured overnight financing rate (3-M SOFR) leading the way for the last 5 days with a 0.64% increase.

The 2-year bond (0.06%) and the 5-year bond (0.03%) were virtually unchanged, while the fed funds (-0.02%) and the 10-year note (-0.16%) were also virtually unchanged to the downside. The 1-month secured overnight financing rate was lower by 0.5%, while the longer treasury bonds were down by 1%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (93 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (62 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (9 percent), the Fed Funds (11 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (12.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (22.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (11.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (45.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (92.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (85.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (61.4 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (62.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (45.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (37.5 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (26 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-32.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-7.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-30.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (15.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (6.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.1 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (26.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (29.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (20.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (6.3 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -233,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -227,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	69.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	59.2	1.9
– Net Position:	-233,667	225,702	7,965
– Gross Longs:	260,775	1,535,528	50,810
– Gross Shorts:	494,442	1,309,826	42,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	83.1	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.9	44.8	-4.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -282,447 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 158,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -441,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	54.1	0.4
– Net Position:	-282,447	261,921	20,526
– Gross Longs:	1,818,394	6,932,254	71,213
– Gross Shorts:	2,100,841	6,670,333	50,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	53.1	88.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-20.1	-6.8

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	67.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	65.5	0.2
– Net Position:	-28,652	26,840	1,812
– Gross Longs:	187,765	910,687	4,165
– Gross Shorts:	216,417	883,847	2,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	38.1	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-25.2	-6.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,379,597 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -54,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,325,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	80.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	52.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,379,597	1,253,871	125,726
– Gross Longs:	519,409	3,638,973	262,521
– Gross Shorts:	1,899,006	2,385,102	136,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	92.2	69.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	10.0	-1.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,566,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -29,492 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,536,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	83.7	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	51.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-2,566,369	2,352,918	213,451
– Gross Longs:	492,867	6,055,630	468,638
– Gross Shorts:	3,059,236	3,702,712	255,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	4.6	1.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -942,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -959,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	76.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	61.9	6.0
– Net Position:	-942,223	793,295	148,928
– Gross Longs:	544,434	4,100,111	470,827
– Gross Shorts:	1,486,657	3,306,816	321,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	72.3	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.3	13.8	20.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -360,321 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -359,622 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.6	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	61.2	11.4
– Net Position:	-360,321	402,305	-41,984
– Gross Longs:	292,485	1,908,261	239,327
– Gross Shorts:	652,806	1,505,956	281,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.9	81.9	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-10.5	4.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -60,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 49,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	76.7	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	79.6	7.1
– Net Position:	-60,794	-51,181	111,975
– Gross Longs:	148,973	1,372,602	239,356
– Gross Shorts:	209,767	1,423,783	127,381
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	24.1	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-14.4	5.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -209,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	81.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	71.6	8.6
– Net Position:	-209,132	198,287	10,845
– Gross Longs:	138,939	1,643,416	185,310
– Gross Shorts:	348,071	1,445,129	174,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	18.1	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-11.9	13.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

17 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,585 contracts) with Soybean Meal (23,298 contracts), Sugar (8,460 contracts), Cocoa (3,706 contracts) and Lean Hogs (789 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-25,206 contracts), Wheat (-10,481 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,877 contracts), Coffee (-3,056 contracts), Cotton (-2,961 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-234 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Price Changes:

Leading the prices this week for the soft commodity markets was Coffee, which jumped by over 10%. Coffee has now been up by 16% in the last 30 days, but over the last 90 days it is down by almost 1%.

Soybeans came in second this week with a gain of over 5%, followed by Soybean Meal, which rose by over 2.5% on the week. Cocoa was next with a gain of almost 2%, followed by Cotton with a 1.3% rise, and then Sugar, which rose by just about 1.2% on the week. Corn (0.29%) and Soybean Oil (0.14%) edged up a minuscule amount on the week.

Live cattle (-0.22%), Lean Hogs (-0.97%), and Wheat were all down on the week, with Wheat seeing the biggest downfall at -1.86%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (83 percent) and Lean Hogs (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (78 percent) and Coffee (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent), Soybean Meal (11 percent), Cotton (14 percent) and the Corn (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (18.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.5 percent)
Sugar (2.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (51.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (54.2 percent)
Soybeans (46.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.0 percent)
Live Cattle (82.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (83.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (82.5 percent)
Cotton (14.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.2 percent)
Cocoa (24.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (20.2 percent)
Wheat (23.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (32.0 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (11 percent) and Soybean Oil (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (3 percent) and Live Cattle (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-16 percent), Soybeans (-15 percent) and Cotton (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.1 percent)
Sugar (-0.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-8.3 percent)
Coffee (-2.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-1.8 percent)
Soybeans (-14.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-24.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (6.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (10.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.1 percent)
Live Cattle (2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-15.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.5 percent)
Cotton (-6.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-2.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.9 percent)
Wheat (-15.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -133,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,206 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	44.6	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	34.5	10.7
– Net Position:	-133,174	155,179	-22,005
– Gross Longs:	313,217	690,502	144,348
– Gross Shorts:	446,391	535,323	166,353
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	80.7	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.9	-3.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,460 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	52.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	45.2	7.5
– Net Position:	-68,512	64,008	4,504
– Gross Longs:	198,447	470,364	72,133
– Gross Shorts:	266,959	406,356	67,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	94.0	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.9	18.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	39.1	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	57.6	4.6
– Net Position:	26,202	-27,078	876
– Gross Longs:	46,593	57,194	7,616
– Gross Shorts:	20,391	84,272	6,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	51.1	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.7	-19.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -15,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	52.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	48.8	7.3
– Net Position:	-15,575	30,518	-14,943
– Gross Longs:	153,439	460,202	49,113
– Gross Shorts:	169,014	429,684	64,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	52.3	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	15.1	2.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 66,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	44.9	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	57.5	4.6
– Net Position:	66,069	-77,075	11,006
– Gross Longs:	139,219	276,377	39,003
– Gross Shorts:	73,150	353,452	27,997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	22.3	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-4.0	-2.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	51.5	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	45.4	5.1
– Net Position:	-58,312	40,390	17,922
– Gross Longs:	111,199	342,675	51,943
– Gross Shorts:	169,511	302,285	34,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.8	90.8	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.8	-45.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 106,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	29.2	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	51.0	13.5
– Net Position:	106,141	-83,367	-22,774
– Gross Longs:	183,808	111,511	28,951
– Gross Shorts:	77,667	194,878	51,725
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	20.7	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	1.2	-10.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,927 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,138 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	28.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	49.0	7.4
– Net Position:	73,927	-69,042	-4,885
– Gross Longs:	153,610	98,076	20,430
– Gross Shorts:	79,683	167,118	25,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	16.4	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	15.0	13.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -38,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,478 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	46.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	30.5	5.1
– Net Position:	-38,439	39,218	-779
– Gross Longs:	68,099	113,063	11,588
– Gross Shorts:	106,538	73,845	12,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	87.2	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.7	-7.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	59.9	7.1
– Net Position:	13,749	-18,785	5,036
– Gross Longs:	27,469	39,736	11,968
– Gross Shorts:	13,720	58,521	6,932
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.0	74.8	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.3	11.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -89,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,565 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	37.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	19.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-89,046	88,024	1,022
– Gross Longs:	133,455	180,598	38,421
– Gross Shorts:	222,501	92,574	37,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	77.9	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.7	11.8	37.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Aug

Supply Disruption Creates Opportunity for Lithium Co. as Prices Rally

Source: Streetwise Reports (8/15/25)

While the timing of the lithium market rebalancing remains under debate, demand growth fundamentals are undisputed. Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ), which,, according to analyst Heiko Ihle, is poised for near-term production, might be in the right position to capture value in the next lithium bull cycle.

The prices of lithium and lithium equities rallied early this week on unexpected news that Chinese regulators shuttered operations at the Jianxiawo lepidolite (a lithium-bearing mineral) mine due to owner noncompliance with permitting requirements.

“The current situation underscores lithium’s emergence as a truly strategic commodity in the global transition to electrification, where supply disruptions can trigger immediate and substantial market reactions across multiple industries and continents,” wrote Mark Reichman, Noble Capital Markets research analyst, in an August 11 research report.

After the news, on Monday alone, the lithium spot price rose nearly 4%, and lithium producers saw their share price increase between about 9% and 20%, reported Reichman. Spot lithium was US$10,850 per metric ton at the close of trading on Tuesday, Aug. 12, up 8.5% from US$10,008 at the end of last week.

The impact, if any, the Jianxiawo shutdown will have on the global lithium oversupply is hard to quantify, given the unknowns surrounding the duration of the closure. According to Benchmark in an Aug. 12 article, lithium prices’ gain this week primarily was due to sentiment and reflects the speculative nature of lithium trading in the Asian country.

MST Financial attributed the price movement to supply concerns amid speculation that Jianxiawo could be closed for much longer than the three months its owner, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL:ASX), announced, as long as a year, reported Stockhead on Aug. 11. CATL is China’s largest lithium battery producer. Dr. Cam Perks, Benchmark lithium product director, told Stockhead the mine is too important to the local economy, providing 30% of supply to the area’s lithium refineries, to remain closed for a significant time period.

“The fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, megatrends that we see developing within the global economy: the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence,”

Jianxiawo’s annual production of lithium carbonate equivalent, about 46,000 metric tons, is equal to about 3% of the global output forecasted for this year, Australian government data show, reported Reuters on Aug. 11.

Thus, Reichman noted, “For investors, the situation presents both opportunities and uncertainties. While the immediate supply shock has benefited lithium stockholders, the underlying fundamentals of oversupply that had previously pressured prices remain largely unchanged.”

This oversupply has persisted throughout the past 18–24 months, according to an Aug. 11 Discovery Alert article. It resulted from a large amount of capacity and production expansion during the 2011-2022 bull market. New technological advances in lithium mining bolstered output at existing operations. The oversupply conditions are still in play; global lithium production capacity is estimated to still exceed demand throughout 2025 by about 100,000–150,000 tons.

“One mine suspension alone is unlikely to rebalance the market,” the Discovery Alert article read. “The market will likely require multiple quarters of coordinated production restraint before a sustainable uptrend can develop.”

In contrast, Barry Dawes, executive chairman of Martin Place Securities, wrote in an Aug. 11 note that the needed adjustment to reduce inventory levels has happened, the lithium market has bottomed, and more than half of lithium production costs are higher than the current lithium price. Underlying demand growth is strong, and with that, prices are poised to move higher. In other words, a new lithium bull market is underway.

“Lithium has been the most hated sector in the market for some time,” wrote Dawes. “The wheel turns.”

Investing News Network (INN) wrote in a July 21 article that long-term fundamentals “promise sustained demand growth into the next decade.” Now, with digitalization (data centers) and renewable energy integration (battery energy storage systems) requiring lithium in addition to electric vehicles (EVs), demand for the metal has picked up, remains strong, and is expected to rise.

According to a BloombergNEF report in June, global EV sales are predicted to reach 22 million (22M) in 2025, up 25% from last year due to lithium-ion batteries being less expensive and greater availability of more affordable EV models.

Total global demand for lithium carbonate equivalent, reported Statista, could reach about 2,500,000 metric tons by 2030, up from 292,000 metric tons in 2020.

“The fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, megatrends that we see developing within the global economy: the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence,” Paul Lusty, head of battery raw materials research at Fastmarkets, said about lithium at a July conference, INN reported.

A more favorable lithium market, including higher prices of the metal, could benefit companies in the lithium mining space. Here’s a look at one U.S.-based lithium developer:

Atlas Lithium

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) is advancing its fully permitted Neves Lithium Project in Brazil. On August 4, 2025, the Company released its Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS), a nearly 500-page comprehensive technical report that establishes the foundation for the project’s anticipated strong financial returns. The study projects an 11-month payback period, a 145% internal rate of return, and a net present value exceeding $539 million. Additional details are available in the Company’s DFS filing with the SEC.

“With Atlas’ low-cost operations nearing first production, we believe that the company is well-positioned to generate strong long-term returns and provide valuable geopolitical diversification compared to other major lithium players, justifying its continued position as one of our Top Picks for 2025,” wrote Heiko Ihle, analyst at H.C. Wainwright & Co., in a July 14 research report.

Earlier this month, Atlas released a definitive feasibility study of Neves, Streetwise Reports reported. Study highlights were strong economics and a low capex. At an SC5.5 price of US$1,700 per ton (US$1,700/ton) and at a break-even SC5.5 price of US$735/ton, the project would yield a net present value of about US$540 million (US$540M) and an internal rate of return of 145%. Remaining capex to be paid is US$57.6M.

“The limited capex remaining, coupled with Neves’ status as a shovel-ready project, place Atlas in pole position to become the next lithium producer in Brazil’s lithium valley over the next year,” wrote Jake Sekelsky, analyst with Alliance Global Partners, in an Aug. 5 research report.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

	Retail: 52%
	Insiders & Management: 27%
	Strategic Investors: 11%
	Institutional: 10%

52%

27%

11%

10%

^*Share Structure as of 8/14/2025

Source: Atlas Lithium Corp.

Sekelsky expects Atlas to keep moving forward at Neves despite lithium market headwinds because of the project’s low cost structure and limited capex needed to take it to production. That said, the analyst expects lithium prices to start moving up as 2026 approaches, coinciding with Atlas’ project development ramp-up. Sekelsky also pointed out the expansion potential upside as Atlas could, down the line, increase plant capacity to 300,000 tons per year of SC5.5 from 150,000. Sekelsky has a Buy rating and a target price on Atlas, implying a potential return for investors of 235%.

H.C. Wainwright Analyst Ihle also rates Atlas Buy, and his target on the lithium developer suggests a possible 201% uplift, according to his report. In it, the analyst highlighted how close Atlas is to producing battery-grade spodumene concentrate and how it already secured agreements tied to future production, with Chengxin and Yahua, two major lithium companies, and Mitsui & Co. Ltd., a general trading company. Also, noted Ihle, subsidiary Atlas Critical Minerals, with about 54,000 hectares of property prospective for total rare earth oxides, titanium, graphite, and, potentially, uranium, strengthens Atlas Lithium’s position in Brazil’s critical minerals sector.

“This project complements the firm’s Neves project, as we expect the near-term cash flow to support Atlas’ long-term strategy of becoming a leading player in [the] global energy transition,” wrote Ihle.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Atlas Lithium, its management and insiders own about 27% of the company’s shares. Strategic partners, including Mitsui & Co., hold another roughly 11%. Institutional investors own about 10%. The rest, about 52%, is in retail.

Refinitiv reports that Atlas has 19.58M outstanding shares and 11.43M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$117.3M. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–12.48 per share.

Important Disclosures:

Atlas Lithium Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium Corp.
Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Financial News Metals

15 Aug

US Administration seeks to acquire a stake in Intel. Natural Gas prices drop to a 9-month low

By JustMarkets

At the close on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.02%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.03%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 0.07%. Higher-than-expected wholesale inflation data dampened optimism for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The July Producer Price Index surged 0.9% month-over-month, the biggest increase in three years, and was up 3.3% year-over-year, which was significantly higher than the 0.2% expectations. Despite the inflation surprise, markets were still pricing in an 85-91% probability of a September rate cut, though expectations for a 50-basis-point change disappeared.

The Trump administration is in talks with Intel about a potential US government acquisition of a stake in the struggling chipmaker. The talks followed a meeting this week between President Donald Trump and Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan, which came just days after Trump publicly demanded that Tan resign over his investments in Chinese technology companies, some of which are linked to the Chinese military. Details on the size and price of the stake are still being negotiated. A deal could provide Intel with fresh capital to support its long-term turnaround efforts, as the former chipmaking leader has lost its dominant position in recent years. On Thursday, Intel stock rose by 7.4%.

The Mexican peso weakened to 18.8 per USD, near the month-low of 18.88 recorded earlier this month, amid a stronger US dollar combined with the Bank of Mexico’s recent policy easing and renewed tariff pressures. The sharp jump in US producer prices in July, the most significant in three years, reduced bets on an early Fed rate cut, which supported the dollar. Domestically, Banxico slowed its pace of easing but still cut rates by 25 basis points to 7.75% on August 7 in a split decision that acknowledged weak economic activity, currency volatility, and global trade risks. The move reduced the policy premium that had supported the peso and signaled that further small cuts could follow if disinflation continues.

European equity markets rallied strongly yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.79%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.84%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.24%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.13%. Market sentiment was supported by favorable trade news and cautious optimism about an upcoming Trump-Putin summit, where a possible resolution to the situation in Ukraine is expected to be discussed. A European Commission spokesperson said today that it had received a “new text” from the US with proposals for a joint declaration on tariffs, which is expected to follow the main political agreement. Leading the gains were Rheinmetall (+2.8%), Airbus (+2.3%), and Allianz (+2.1%). Banks also showed solid growth, with Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank adding 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

WTI crude oil prices jumped 2.1% to close at $64 per barrel on Thursday, reaching a one-week high and snapping a two-day losing streak. The rise was driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations that a US interest rate cut next month could stimulate demand. Prices rose after President Trump warned of “serious consequences” if negotiations with Russian President Putin on Ukraine fail, adding a risk premium given Russia’s status as the world’s second-largest oil producer.

The US natural gas prices fell by 1.5% to $2.79/MMBtu, their lowest level since November 2024, after the EIA reported a significant increase in storage inventories. Utilities injected 56 billion cubic feet for the week ending August 8, bringing total storage to 3.186 trillion cubic feet, which is 6.6% above the five-year average and slightly higher than the expected 53 billion cubic feet increase.

Asian markets traded with mixed results yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.70%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 0.37%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.53%. Hong Kong stocks fell by 1.3% in early trading on Friday, extending losses for a second session, as most sectors declined, led by financials, technology, and consumer stocks. Sentiment weakened after July data from China showed that industrial production and retail sales growth missed expectations, highlighting slowing economic growth amid persistent external risks, weather-related disasters, and weak domestic demand. The surveyed unemployment rate also rose to a four-month high of 5.2%. Nevertheless, the Hang Seng is on track for its second consecutive weekly gain, currently up more than 1%, helped by the extension of the 90-day US-China trade truce this week.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,468.54 +1.96 (+0.03%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,911.26 −11.01 (−0.02%)

DAX (DE40) 24,377.50 +191.91 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,177.24 +12.01 (+0.13%)

USD Index 98.19 +0.35 (+0.36%)

News feed for: 2025.08.15

Japan GDP (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
China Industrial Production (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
China Retail Sales (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Aug

Week Ahead: US30 faces Jackson Hole & retail earnings showdown

By ForexTime

US30 ↑ 6% year-to-date, futures pointing to fresh ATH
Home Depot + Walmart = 7.3% of US30 weight
Jackson Hole Symposium + US data could trigger more volatility
Technical levels: 45,500, 45,000 & 44,000

A cocktail of high-risk events may serve up fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

All eyes will be on the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, key data and earnings from the largest retail companies in the United States:

Monday, 18th August

CAD: Canada housing starts
JP225: Japan tertiary industry index
SG20: Singapore trade

Tuesday, 19th August

AUD: Australia consumer confidence
CAD: Canada CPI
US30: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, 20th August

CN50: China loan prime rates
EUR: Eurozone CPI
JP225: Japan trade, machinery orders
NZD: New Zealand rate decision
GBP: UK CPI
USDInd: US FOMC meeting minutes, Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Thursday, 21st August

EU50: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence
GER40: Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI
JPY: Japan S&P Global manufacturing PMI
UK100: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI
US30: US initial jobless claims, Conference Board leading index, existing home sales, S&P Global manufacturing PMI, Walmart earnings.

Friday, 22nd August

CAD: Canada retail sales
GER40: Germany GDP
JPY: Japan CPI
GBP: UK retail sales
US30: Fed Chair Powell speech at Jackson Hole

FXTM’s US30 is up almost 6% year-to-date, with futures pointing to a fresh all-time high when US markets open this afternoon.

Note: FXTM’s US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index.

US equities appear to be recovering from the inflation-induced selloff after US PPI data accelerated in July by the most in three years. Still, traders are pricing in a 93% probability of a Fed cut by September.

Here are 3 factors that may rock the US30:

1) Jackson Hole Economic Symposium

This is an annual event organized by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and will be held from August 21st – August 23rd.

Anything discussed during the symposium could trigger market volatility, especially if it has to do with monetary policy. The spotlight shines on Jerome Powell on Friday amid repeated calls from President Donald Trump to cut interest rates.

Should Powell strike a dovish note and signal that the Fed will cut rates in September, the US30 could push higher.
If Powell expresses concern over inflation risks and sounds more hawkish, this may weigh on the US30 as traders cut back Fed cut bets.

2) Home Depot & Walmart earnings

Earnings from two behemoths in the US retail industry could provide key insight into the strength of consumer spending in the face of Trump’s tariffs.

Home Depot releases its earnings before US markets open on Tuesday, 19th August, and accounts for 5.5% of the US30 index.
Walmart reveals its Q2 earnings before US markets open on Thursday, 21st August, and accounts for 1.4% of the US30 index.

Ultimately, a positive set of earnings from these retail giants may boost confidence in the US economy – supporting the US30 as risk sentiment jumps. If earnings disappoint, the US30 may dip, but losses could be cushioned by Fed cut bets.

Note: Beyond earnings, watch out for the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, PMIs on Thursday, all of which could influence the US30 index.

3) Technical forces

The US30 has experienced a bullish breakout above resistance at 45,000.

Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is venturing close to overbought territory.

Should 45,000 prove reliable support regions, prices may venture toward fresh all-time highs at 45,500 and 46,000.
A move back below 45,000 may trigger a selloff back toward 44,400 and 44,000.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

15 Aug

USD/JPY Declines as Yen Regains Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair dropped to 147.19 on Friday, clawing back losses from the previous session. The move followed stronger-than-expected GDP data and rising speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could hike interest rates.

Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2, up from 0.1% in Q1, matching forecasts. The growth was primarily driven by net exports, which contributed 0.3 percentage points, despite pressure from US tariffs.

The yen drew further support from remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested the BoJ is falling behind in tackling inflation. Market pressure is also mounting on the central bank to abandon its inflation target—currently tied to domestic demand and wage growth—which could limit its ability to tighten monetary policy.

However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious stance, emphasising that core inflation remains below the 2% target.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues its downward trajectory, eyeing 146.14—a level likely to be tested today. A rebound to 147.30 is possible before another decline towards 145.45, with further downside potential to 144.30. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a descending wave structure, targeting 146.16. A corrective bounce to 147.30 may follow before the downtrend potentially resumes towards 145.45. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending firmly downward.

Conclusion

The yen’s rebound reflects improving economic data and shifting BoJ rate expectations, while technical indicators suggest further downside for USD/JPY in the near term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Aug

Where America’s CO2 emissions come from – what you need to know, in charts

By Kenneth J. Davis, Penn State

Earth’s atmosphere contains carbon dioxide, which is good for life on Earth – in moderation. Plants use CO₂ as the source of the carbon they build into leaves and wood via photosynthesis. In combination with water vapor, CO₂ insulates the Earth, keeping it from turning into a frozen world. Life as we know it on Earth would not exist without CO₂ in the atmosphere.

Since the industrial revolution began, however, humans have been adding more and more carbon dioxide to the Earth’s atmosphere, and it has become a problem.

The atmospheric concentration of CO₂ has risen by more than 50% since industries began burning coal and other fossil fuels in the late 1700s, reaching concentrations that haven’t been found in the Earth’s atmosphere in at least a million years. And the concentration continues to rise.

A line chart shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations mostly stable for hundreds of years and then rising with the start of the industrial revolution, and accelerating their rise starting in the mid-1900s. — Chart from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, CC BY

Excess CO₂ drives global warming

Who cares? Everyone should.

More CO₂ in the air means temperatures at the Earth’s surface rise. As temperature rises, the water cycle accelerates, leading to more floods and droughts. Glaciers melt, and warmer ocean water expands, raising sea levels.

We are living with an increasing frequency or intensity of wildfires, heat waves, flooding and hurricanes, all influenced by increasing CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere.

The ocean also absorbs some of that CO₂, making the water increasingly acidic, which can harm species crucial to the marine food chain.

Where is this additional CO₂ coming from?

The biggest source of additional CO₂ is the combustion of fossil fuels – oil, natural gas and coal – to power vehicles, electricity generation and industries. Each of these fuels consists of hydrocarbons built by plants that grew on the Earth over the past few hundred million years.

These plants took CO₂ out of the planet’s atmosphere, died, and their biomass was buried in water and sediments.

Today, humans are reversing hundreds of millions of years of carbon accumulation by digging these fuels out of the Earth and burning them to provide energy.

Let’s dig a little deeper.

Where do CO₂ emissions come from in the US?

The Environmental Protection Agency has tracked U.S. greenhouse gas emissions for years.

The U.S. emitted 5,053 million metric tons of CO₂ into the atmosphere in 2022, the last year for which a complete emissions inventory is available. We also emit other greenhouse gases, including methane, from natural gas production and animal agriculture, and nitrous oxide, created when microbes digest nitrogen fertilizer. But carbon dioxide is about 80% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.

Of those 5,053 million metric tons of CO₂ emitted by the U.S. in 2022, 93% came from the combustion of fossil fuels.

More specifically: about 35% of the CO₂ emissions were from transportation, 30% from the generation of electric power, and 16%, 7% and 5% from on-site consumption of fossil fuels by industrial, residential and commercial buildings, respectively. Electric power generation served industrial, residential and commercial buildings roughly equally.

What fossil fuels are being burned?

Transportation is dominated by petroleum products, or oil – think gasoline and diesel fuel.

Nationwide, power plants consume roughly equal fractions of coal and natural gas. Natural gas use has been increasing and coal decreasing in this sector, with this trend driven by the rapid expansion of the shale gas industry in the U.S.

U.S. forests are removing CO₂ from the atmosphere, but not rapidly enough to offset human emissions. U.S. forests removed and stored about 920 million metric tons of CO₂ in 2022.

How US CO₂ emissions have changed

Emissions from the U.S. peaked around 2005 at 6,217 million metric tons of CO2. Since then, emissions have been decreasing slowly, largely driven by the replacement of coal by natural gas in electricity production.

Some additional notable trends will impact the future:

First, the U.S. economy has become more energy efficient over time, increasing productivity while decreasing emissions.

Second, solar and wind energy generation, while still a modest fraction of total energy production, has grown steadily in recent years and emits essentially no CO₂ into the atmosphere. If the nation increasingly relies on renewable energy sources and reduces burning of fossil fuels, it will dramatically reduce its CO₂ emissions.

Solar and wind energy became cheaper as a new energy source than natural gas and coal, but the Trump administration is cutting federal support for renewable energy and is doubling down on subsidies for fossil fuels. The growth of data centers is also expected to increase demand for electricity. How the U.S. meets that demand will impact national CO₂ emissions in future years.

How US emissions compare globally

The U.S. ranked second in CO₂ emissions worldwide in 2022, behind China, which emitted about 12,000 million metric tons of CO₂. China’s annual CO₂ emissions surpassed U.S. emissions in 2005 or 2006.

Added up over time, however, the U.S. has emitted more CO₂ into the atmosphere than any other nation, and we still emit more CO₂ per person than most other industrialized nations. Chinese and European emissions are both roughly half of U.S. emissions on a per capita basis.

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere mix evenly around the globe, so emissions from industrialized nations affect the climate in developing countries that have benefited very little from the energy created by burning fossil fuels.

The takeaway

There have been some promising downward trends in U.S. CO₂ emissions and upward trends in renewable energy sources, but political winds and increasing energy demands threaten progress in reducing emissions.

Reducing emissions in all sectors is needed to slow and eventually stop the rise of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The world has the technological means to make large reductions in emissions. CO₂ emitted into the atmosphere today lingers in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The decisions we make today will influence the Earth’s climate for a very long time.

About the Author:

Kenneth J. Davis, Professor of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Penn State

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

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