14 Aug

Bitcoin set a new all-time high. Oil prices fell to a 2-month low

By JustMarkets

By the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index grew by 1.04%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.32%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up by 0.04%. On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed higher, extending recent momentum, as growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September continued to lift sentiment. The rally continued the gains from Tuesday, which were triggered by softer-than-expected inflation data that fueled bets on monetary easing, with traders fully pricing in a September rate cut and some even expecting a 50 basis point reduction. Among the gainers were AMD, which rose by 5.4%, while some mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia, Alphabet, and Microsoft saw declines.

On Thursday, Bitcoin climbed above $123,000, setting a new record, fueled by growing institutional demand and expectations of monetary easing. An executive order issued last week opened the possibility of including digital assets in 401(k) retirement plans, signaling a more favorable regulatory stance in the US. Further boosting Bitcoin’s rise were steady inflows into spot exchange-traded funds and purchases by public companies following the example of MicroStrategy, which has transformed from a software company into a major player in the Bitcoin market. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin has appreciated by approximately 28%.

European stock markets grew steadily yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was up by 0.67%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.66%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 1.08%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.19%. European stocks surged on Wednesday, reaching a two-week high, as prospects of US interest rate cuts and the possibility of lower energy prices supported a backdrop of stronger growth in the bloc. Banks, the luxury sector, and the technology sector were among the session’s leaders. Healthcare stocks also closed sharply higher after a change in their performance from the first half of the month: Sanofi and Bayer added 2% and 3.5%, respectively, while AstraZeneca jumped 3% outside the Eurozone Index. Conversely, oil producers declined, primarily due to a 1% drop in TotalEnergies shares following a signal from the IEA about a global surplus.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $62.6 per barrel, their lowest level in more than two months, after the International Energy Agency (IEA) expected a growing oil surplus this year and next. Inventories are expected to grow at a record pace and reach a 46-month high by June 2026, confirming similar expectations from the US government. The US oil production is projected to peak this year and then decline next year, driven by improved efficiency in existing wells. Meanwhile, EIA data showed that inventories grew slightly last week, which aligned with an industry report on Tuesday.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) grew by 2.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.41%.

In July 2025, employment in Australia grew by 24,500 to a record high of 14.64 million people, a sharp increase after a downwardly revised gain of 1,000 in the previous month, but slightly missing the market consensus of a 25,000 increase. Full-time employment rose to a record level of 10.13 million people. The employment-to-population ratio grew to 64.2%, while the participation rate remained at 67.0%. The strong labor market reduced the likelihood of further rate cuts from the RBA.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,466.58 +20.82 (+0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,922.27 +463.66 (+1.04%)

DAX (DE40) 24,185.59 +160.81 (+0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,165.23 +17.42 (+0.19%)

USD Index 97.83 −0.27 (−0.27%)

News feed for: 2025.08.14

  • Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Employment Change (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
13 Aug

For America’s 35M small businesses, tariff uncertainty hits especially hard

By Peter Boumgarden, Washington University in St. Louis and Dilawar Syed, The University of Texas at Austin 

Imagine it’s April 2025 and you’re the owner of a small but fast-growing e-commerce business. Historically, you’ve sourced products from China, but the president just announced tariffs of 145% on these goods. Do you set up operations in Thailand – requiring new investment and a lot of work – or wait until there’s more clarity on trade? What if waiting too long means you miss your chance to pull it off?

This isn’t a hypothetical – it’s a real dilemma faced by a real business owner who spoke with one of us over coffee this past spring. And she’s not alone. As of 2023, of those U.S. companies that import goods, more than 97% of them were small businesses. For these companies, tariff uncertainty isn’t just frustrating – it’s paralyzing.

As a family business researcher and former deputy administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration and entrepreneur, we hear from a lot of small-business owners grappling with these challenges. And what they tell us is that tariff uncertainty is stressing their time, resources and attention.

The data backs up our anecdotal experience: More than 70% of small-business owners say constant shifts in trade policy create a “whiplash effect” that makes it difficult to plan, a recent national survey showed.

Unlike larger organizations with teams of analysts to inform their decision-making, small-business owners are often on their own. In an all-hands-on-deck operation, every hour spent focusing on trade policy news or filling out additional paperwork means precious time away from day-to-day, core operations. That means rapid trade policy shifts leave small businesses especially at a disadvantage.

Planning for stability in an uncertain landscape

Critics and supporters alike can agree: The Trump administration has taken an unpredictable approach to trade policy, promising and delaying new tariffs again and again. Consider its so-called “reciprocal” tariffs. Back in April, Trump pledged a baseline 10% tariff on imports from nearly everywhere, with extra hikes on many countries. Not long afterward, it hit pause on its plans for 90 days. That period just ended, and the administration followed up with a new executive order on July 31 naming different tariff rates for about 70 countries. The one constant has been change.

Bloomberg TV covers the administration’s “surprise announcements” on trade the day before a key self-imposed deadline.

This approach has upended long-standing trade relationships in a matter of days or weeks. And regardless of the outcomes, the uncertainty itself is especially disruptive to small businesses. One recent survey of 4,000 small-business owners found that the biggest challenge of tariff policies is the sheer uncertainty they cause.

This isn’t just a problem for small-business owners themselves. These companies employ nearly half of working Americans and play an essential role in the U.S. economy. That may partly explain why Americans overwhelmingly support small businesses, viewing them as positive for society and a key path for achieving the American dream. If you’re skeptical, just look at the growing number of MBA graduates who are turning down offers at big companies to buy and run small businesses.

But this consensus doesn’t always translate into policies that help small businesses thrive. In fact, because small businesses often operate on thinner margins and have less capacity to absorb disruptions, any policy shift is likely to be more difficult for them to weather than it would be for a larger firm with deeper pockets. The ongoing tariff saga is just the most recent example.

Slow, steady policies help small-business owners

Given these realities, we recommend the final negotiated changes to trade policy be rolled out slowly. Although that wouldn’t prevent businesses from facing supply chain disruptions, it would at least give them time to consider alternate suppliers or prepare in other ways. From the perspective of a small-business owner, having that space to plan can make a real difference.

Similarly, if policymakers want to bring more manufacturing back to the U.S., tariffs alone can accomplish only so much. Small manufacturers need to hire people, and with unemployment at just over 4%, there’s already a shortage of workers qualified for increasingly high-skilled manufacturing roles.

Making reshoring a true long-term policy objective would require creating pathways for legal immigration and investing significantly in job training. And if the path toward reshoring is more about automation than labor, then preparing small-business owners for the changes ahead and helping them fund growth strategically will be crucial.

Small businesses would benefit from more government-backed funding and training. The Small Business Administration is uniquely positioned to support small firms as they adjust their supply chains and manufacturing – it could offer affordable financing for imports and exports, restructure existing loans that small businesses have had to take on, and offer technical support and education on new regulations and paperwork. Unfortunately, the SBA has slashed 43% of its workforce and closed offices in major cities including Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, New Orleans and Los Angeles. We think this is a step in the wrong direction.

Universities also have an important role to play in supporting small businesses. Research shows that teaching core management skills can improve key business outcomes, such as profitability and growth. We recommend business and trade schools increase their focus on small firms and the unique challenges they face. Whether through executive programs for small-business owners or student consulting projects, universities have a significant opportunity to lean into supporting Main Street entrepreneurs.

Thirty-five million small businesses are the engine of the U.S. economy. They are the job creators in cities and towns across this country. They are the heartbeat of American communities. As the nation undergoes rapid and profound policy shifts, we encourage leaders in government and academia to take action to ensure that Main Streets across America not only endure but thrive.

The authors would like to thank Gretchen Abraham and Matt Sonneborn for their support.The Conversation

About the Author:

Peter Boumgarden, Professor of Family Enterprise, Washington University in St. Louis and Dilawar Syed, Associate Professor of Instruction, Department of Business, Government and Society, The University of Texas at Austin

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Stock Market News
13 Aug

My research team used 18 years of sea wave records to learn how destructive ‘rogue waves’ form – here’s what we found

By Francesco Fedele, Georgia Institute of Technology 

Rogue waves have captivated the attention of both seafarers and scientists for decades. These are giant, isolated waves that appear suddenly in the open ocean.

These puzzling giants are brief, typically lasting less than a minute before disappearing. They can reach heights of 65 feet (20 meters) or greater and often more than twice the height of surrounding waves. Once a nautical myth, rogue waves have now been observed around the world. Because they’re so tall and powerful, they can pose a danger to ships and offshore structures.

To rethink what rogue waves are and what causes them, I gathered an international team of researchers. Our study, published in Nature Scientific Reports, sheds light on these oceanic giants using the most comprehensive dataset of its kind.

By analyzing 18 years of high-frequency laser measurements from the Ekofisk oil platform in the central North Sea, we reached the surprising conclusion that rogue waves aren’t just freak occurrences. They arise under the natural laws of the sea. They are not mysterious, but somewhat simple.

27,500 sea states

We analyzed nearly 27,500 half-hour wave records, or sea states, collected between 2003 and 2020 in the central North Sea. These records, taken every 30 minutes, describe how elevated the sea surface was compared to the average sea level. They include major storms, such as the Andrea wave event in 2007.

Several structures standing in the sea.
A complex of platforms on the Ekofisk oil field in the North Sea.
BoH/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Under normal conditions, waves arise from wind blowing over the sea surface. It’s like when you blow over your cup of coffee and form small ripples on the surface. At sea, with enough time and space, those ripples can turn into large waves.

We focused on understanding what causes waves to suddenly go rogue and rise far above their neighboring waves. One proposed theory is based on modulational instability, a phenomenon described by complex mathematical models. I’ve revised these models in the past, as my work suggests that this theory doesn’t fully explain what causes rogue waves in the open ocean.

A diagram showing the height of waves in different sea states, with the tallest reaching about half the height of a large commercial boat.
Sea states record the height of waves and show when some waves rise high above sea level.
U.S. Government Accountability Office

When waves are trapped within a narrow channel, the modulational instability theory describes their rippling movement well. However, it starts to fall apart when you look at the real ocean. In open environments such as the North Sea, waves are free to propagate from multiple directions.

To understand the difference, imagine a crowd of spectators leaving a stadium after a football game. If the exit is a long, narrow hallway with tall walls, people are forced to move in a single direction. Those at the back push forward, and some may even climb over others, piling up between the confining walls. This catastrophic pileup would resemble a rogue wave, caused by their confinement.

In contrast, if the stadium’s exit opens onto a wide field, spectators can disperse freely in all directions. They don’t push on each other, and they avoid pileups.

Similarly, researchers can generate rogue waves in a confined channel in the lab, where they obey modulational instability. But without the confinement of a channel, rogue waves usually won’t follow those physics or form the same way in the open sea.

Our team knew we had to study the open sea directly to figure out what was really going on. The real-world data my team examined from the North Sea doesn’t line up with modulational instability – it tells a different story.

It’s just a bad day at sea

We analyzed the sea state records using statistical techniques to uncover patterns behind these rare events. Our findings show that instead of modulational instability, the extreme waves observed more likely formed through a process called constructive interference.

Constructive interference happens when two or more waves line up and combine into one big wave. This effect is amplified by the natural asymmetry of sea waves – their crests are typically sharper and steeper than their flatter troughs.

Rogue waves form when lots of smaller waves line up and their steeper crests begin to stack, building up into a single, massive wave that briefly rises far above its surroundings. All it takes for a peaceful boat ride to turn into a bad day at sea is a moment when many ordinary waves converge and stack.

These rogue waves rise and fall in less than a minute, following what’s called a quasi-deterministic pattern in space and time. This type of pattern is recognizable and repeatable, but with touches of randomness. In an idealized ocean, that randomness would almost vanish, allowing rogue waves to grow to nearly infinite heights. But it would also take an eternity to witness one of these waves, since so many would have to line up perfectly. Like waiting for Fortuna, the goddess of chance, to roll a trillion dice and have nearly all of them land on the same number.

In the real ocean, nature limits how large a rogue wave can grow thanks to wave breaking. As the wave rises in height and energy, it can’t hold itself beyond a certain point of no return. The tip of the wave spills over and breaks into foam, or whitecap, releasing the excess energy.

The quasi-deterministic pattern behind rogue waves

Rogue waves aren’t limited to the sea. Constructive interference can happen to many types of waves. A general theory called the quasi-determinism of waves, developed by oceanographer Paolo Boccotti, explains how rogue waves form, both in the ocean and in other wave systems.

For example, for turbulent water flowing through a confined channel, a rogue wave manifests in the form of an intense, short-lived spike in vortices – patterns of spinning swirls in the water that momentarily grow larger as they move downstream.

While ocean waves seem unpredictable, Boccotti’s theory shows that extreme waves are not completely random. When a really big wave forms, the waves in the sea around it follow a recognizable pattern formed through constructive interference.

We applied Boccotti’s theory to identify and characterize these patterns in the measured North Sea wave records.

The giant waves observed in these records carry a kind of signature or fingerprint, in the form of a wave group, which can reveal how the rogue wave came to life. Think of a wave group like a small package of waves moving together. They rise, peak and then fade away through constructive interference. Tracking these wave groups allows researchers to understand the bigger picture of a rogue event as it unfolds.

As one example, a powerful storm hit the North Sea on Nov. 24, 2023. A camera at the Ekofisk platform captured a massive 55 foot (17 meter) rogue wave. I applied the theory of quasi-determinism and an AI model to investigate the origin of this extreme wave. My analysis revealed that the rogue event followed these theories – quasi-determinism and constructive interference – and came from multiple smaller waves repeatedly stacking together.

Left: Stereo video footage of a powerful storm in the North Sea on Nov. 24, 2023, recorded at the Ekofisk platform.
Right: The wave group signature of the recorded rogue wave.

Recognizing how rogue waves form can help engineers and designers build safer ships and offshore platforms – and better predict risks.The Conversation

About the Author:

Francesco Fedele, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
13 Aug

Global stocks rally on Fed easing hopes

By ForexTime 

  • US500 & NAS100 hit fresh all-time highs
  • In-line US inflation boosts Fed cut bets, September cut priced in
  • USDInd tumbles below 98.00, USD down against all G10
  • GBPUSD trades higher ahead of upcoming UK GDP data

Equities across the globe extended gains on Wednesday as mounting Fed cuts stimulated appetite for risk assets.

The US annual inflation rate held steady at 2.7% in July, defying expectations of a tariff-induced rise to 2.8%. This essentially sealed the deal for the Fed to cut rates in September and boosted the odds of another cut by October to 60%.

Markets are buzzing with activity:

  • The S&P500 and Nasdaq100 surged to fresh all-time highs.
  • FXTM’s USDInd tumbled below 98.00 for the first time since late July.
  • Bitcoin rebounded back toward $120,000.
  • Gold prices stabilized above the 50-day SMA.

The risk-on rally has also been supported by:

  • President Donald Trump extending a trade truce with Beijing until 10 November.
  • Optimism over Trump-Putin talks leading to an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

USDInd set to extend losses?

The USD has depreciated against every single G10 currency this week, with the USDInd dipping below 98.00.

Prices are bearish with more soft data fuelling the downside. Much attention will be on the incoming US PPI, initial jobless claims, and speeches by Fed officials, which may provide further insight into Fed cuts.

Looking at the charts, the negative momentum may drag prices toward 97.00.

dxy77

 

GBPUSD higher ahead of GDP

GBPUSD jumped as much as 100 pips yesterday after in-line US inflation readings weakened the dollar and boosted bets around the Fed cutting rates in September.

Sterling was already supported by the BoE’s hawkish rate cut last week and may see more volatility due to the incoming Q2 GDP report on Thursday.

A stronger-than-expected figure may boost confidence in the UK economy. If this reduces bets around the BoE cutting rates, the pound could rally.

A weaker-than-expected figure is likely to support the argument for lower UK interest rates, weakening the pound as a result.

  • Bullish: A solid breakout above the 50-day SMA may encourage a move toward 1.3600.
  • Bearish: Weakness below the 50-day SMA may trigger a decline toward 1.3415.
gbpusd 5
 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions
13 Aug

A Big Fall Is Coming

Source: Barry Dawes (8/12/25) 

Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on the gold sector and one stock he is looking to buy back into.

Gold has not shown any strength here.

These are not bullish market actions.

Weakness is already showing with gold, down US$22 at the time of this article.

A big fall is coming.

An interesting EW view from @ElephantCapita2

Wave 4 correction coming.

Would give 160 on XAU, then new highs coming.

Wait for re-entry to our best big gold stocks.

North American Gold Stocks

This is one for the history books.

100% ratings here!

Too much enthusiasm here:

Here likely to pull back to at least 10. Up 70$ in 2025, and up 120% in 18 months.

Look to buy back into Northern Star Resources Ltd. (NST:ASX) below AU$13 sometime in September or October.

ASX Gold Sector

ASX gold index is back to 10,000.

There are too many gaps in the ASX gold index.

Head the markets!

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: None. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Metals Opinions
13 Aug

S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach record highs. Natural gas prices fall to a one-year low

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones (US30) Index rose by 1.10% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed up by 1.33%. Major Wall Street indices rallied on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs, after July inflation data largely met expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, easing fears of rising prices amid ongoing trade tensions. This bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month. Traders are pricing in an approximately 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September. Investor sentiment was further boosted by the largest inflow into US stocks in two years and optimism ahead of the Jackson Hole Fed meeting later this month.

European stock markets traded with mixed performance yesterday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 0.23%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.71%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.02%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.20%. The ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator for Germany declined for the first time in four months to 34.7 in August 2025, down from 52.7 in July, which was its highest reading since 2022, and below expectations of 40. The significant drop in the August 2025 ZEW indicator was partly due to the poor performance of the German economy in the second quarter of 2025.

WTI oil prices fell to $63.5 a barrel on Tuesday, close to the two-month low of $62.77 reached the previous week, as President Trump extended the US-China tariff truce for 90 days and investors awaited US-Russia talks on Ukraine. Trump downplayed hopes of a breakthrough, calling the meeting a chance to “test the waters” for peace, while Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected any talks of ceding territory. Separately, OPEC projected a tighter oil market for 2026, citing higher demand and slowing non-OPEC production growth. Attention will turn to the monthly reports from the US Department of Energy and the IEA for market insights.

The US natural gas prices (XNG/USD) fell below $2.9 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest since November 2024, pressured by near-record output, high storage levels, and expectations for milder weather. August production in the lower 48 states averaged 108.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), up from the record July output of 107.9 Bcf/d. Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, the high supply has allowed for above-average injections into storage, and stockpiles are about 6% above the seasonal norm and are expected to continue rising.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.88%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.25%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.41%.

The Australian dollar weakened to $0.652 against the US dollar on Wednesday, giving up the previous session’s gains after a dovish rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia continued to weigh on the currency. On Tuesday, the central bank cut its official cash rate as expected and signaled that further easing may be needed to meet its inflation and employment goals amid a loss of economic momentum. It also lowered its 2025 GDP expectations to 1.7% from 2.1%, citing weak household demand at the start of the year that is unlikely to recover. Markets are now implying a slim 34% chance of another rate cut in September.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,445.76 +72.31 (+1.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,458.61 +483.52 (+1.10%)

DAX (DE40) 24,024.78 −56.56 (−0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,147.81 +18.10 (+0.20%)

USD Index 98.07 −0.45 (−0.46%)

News feed for: 2025.08.13

  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Australia Wage Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
13 Aug

USD/JPY Gains Ground as Market Favouring Risk Appetite

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 148.00 on Wednesday, with the yen relinquishing its earlier gains as a rally in global risk assets dampened demand for the safe-haven currency.

The move followed the release of US inflation data, which bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

In Japan, manufacturing sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in August, supported by a trade agreement with Washington. The US reduced tariffs on Japanese cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a $550 billion investment package from Tokyo.

Meanwhile, producer price growth slowed to an 11-month low in July, reflecting pressure on domestic firms from higher US tariffs.

Monetary policy uncertainty persists, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers divided on the timing and pace of future rate hikes. Some officials advocate maintaining an accommodative stance, citing risks to the central bank’s economic forecasts.

Currently, capital markets show little appetite for safe-haven assets, traditionally a role filled by the yen. Doubts over the BoJ’s policy direction further undermine the currency’s appeal.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The USD/JPY pair continues its corrective wave towards 148.60. A pullback to 147.52 is expected today, after which another upswing to 148.60 may materialise. Once this wave exhausts, a decline towards 146.40 is anticipated. This scenario is technically validated by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair has entered a consolidation phase around 148.00. A dip to 147.50 is likely today, potentially followed by an extension towards 148.65. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY remains buoyed by risk-on sentiment, though technical indicators suggest near-term volatility is likely. Traders will monitor BoJ policy signals and US economic data for further direction.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Aug

EUR/USD Under Pressure All Eyes on US Inflation Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair dipped to 1.1620 on Tuesday following sharp swings in the previous session. Investors are bracing for the release of US inflation data, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

The July CPI is forecast to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in June, while the annual rate is expected to climb for a third consecutive month to 2.8%. The core index is expected to remain steady at 0.3% month-on-month.

Despite persistent inflationary pressures, markets are pricing in a near-90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September.

On the trade front, President Donald Trump has extended the truce with China by another 90 days to allow further negotiations. Another key focus is Trump’s upcoming meeting with the Russian president on Friday, where discussions are expected to focus on a ceasefire agreement.

Aside from the US inflation figures, traders are awaiting the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index for August, which is projected to rise to 30.0 points, up from 28.1 previously. Later in the day, Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially offering further clues on monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:


The EUR/USD is currently consolidating near the top of its corrective phase. A break below 1.1611 could trigger a downward wave, targeting 1.1520, with potential for an extended decline towards 1.1343. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero but is pointing sharply downwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair has completed a downward impulse to 1.1611, followed by a rebound to 1.1679, effectively setting a consolidation range. Today, traders should watch for a downside breakout, potentially initiating a fifth downward wave towards 1.1520. A brief retest of 1.1611 (from below) could be followed by further declines to 1.1444, with an eventual target of 1.1343. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this outlook, with its signal line below 80 and trending downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

With US inflation data in focus, the EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside. A break below 1.1611 could accelerate selling pressure, while any surprises in the CPI figures may prompt a reassessment of Fed rate expectations.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Aug

Inflation in China remained flat. Nvidia and AMD will share revenue from chip sales to China with the US government

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47% on Friday (weekly gain +1.03%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.78% (weekly gain of +1.88%), while the Nasdaq (US100) finished the day 0.95% higher (weekly gain of +2.72%). Tech stocks led the rally, with Apple rising by 4.2% after announcing a $600 billion investment plan, which boosted the Nasdaq. Investor optimism was fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following President Trump’s nomination of Steven Mnuchin to the Fed Board, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy despite ongoing concerns about new tariffs on imports from several countries. Tesla shares rose by 2.3% despite the dissolution of its Dojo team, and Intel was up 0.9% after its CEO received board support following calls for his resignation from Trump.

Nvidia and AMD have agreed to a deal with the US government to share 15% of the revenue from certain chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips. This unprecedented agreement reflects the White House’s strategic use of trade exceptions amid ongoing tariff pressure. President Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports unless companies “build in the United States” adds urgency to such agreements.

The Canadian dollar fell below $1.37 against the US dollar as weaker domestic employment data and looming trade factors undermined previous gains. A Statistics Canada report showing the country lost 41,000 jobs in July, far worse than the 13,500 gain analysts predicted, and a static unemployment rate of 6.9% heightened concerns about domestic demand and fueled expectations for a more dovish Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, President Trump’s decision to implement 35% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and impending duties on auto parts have added to the pressure on the trade-exposed Canadian economy.

European stock markets were mixed on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.12% (weekly gain +2.72%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.44% (weekly gain +2.11%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.91% (weekly gain +4.55%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.06% (weekly gain +0.30%). European stocks ended the week with a strong rally, posting a sharp rise in the first week of August as markets continued to assess the outlook for the European economy amid uncertainty over US tariff levels and the ECB’s response. Banks continued to rise sharply, with BBVA, BNP Paribas, and UniCredit all gaining more than 2%. Siemens was up 2.2% after a volatile week, and Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis each added more than 2%, setting the pace for automakers. On the other hand, Rheinmetall lost 1.5% on reports that the US and Russia might agree on a ceasefire in Ukraine.

WTI crude oil prices were flat on Friday at $63.9 per barrel, holding near a two-month low and showing a weekly drop of more than 5% amid growing fears of higher US tariffs and a possible meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. The recently implemented US tariffs, which took effect on Thursday, have intensified concerns about slowing economic growth and a potential decline in demand for crude oil. Meanwhile, news of a possible Trump-Putin summit raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, which could ease sanctions on Russia. However, analysts remain cautious, stressing that a breakthrough is unlikely as Putin is expected to demand territorial concessions while the US pushes for a ceasefire.

Silver fell to $38 per ounce on Monday, partially reversing last week’s gains, as investors took profits ahead of key US inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Markets are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut in September amid signs of a weakening labor market, with a possible subsequent move in December also being priced in. Fed official Michelle Bowman stated on Saturday that the latest weak jobs report reinforces her concerns about labor market volatility and strengthens her view that three rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.

Asian markets were mostly higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 4.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.75%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.68%.

In July 2025, consumer prices in China were unchanged year-on-year, defying market expectations for a 0.1% decline and following a 0.1% increase in the prior month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose to 0.8% y/y, the highest level in 17 months, after a 0.7% increase in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4% in July, slightly above the 0.3% expectations and reversing a 0.1% decrease in June. This was the highest monthly inflation figure since January, partly attributed to recent extreme weather conditions, including heavy rainfall.

On Monday, the Australian dollar paused near the $0.652 mark as investors cautiously awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision due on Tuesday. Markets broadly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.60% at the August meeting, following lower-than-expected second-quarter inflation and a rise in unemployment to a three-and-a-half-year high. This comes after the RBA’s unexpected decision in July to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, citing a more balanced assessment of inflation risks and persistent labor market resilience.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,389.45 +49.45 (+0.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,175.61 +206.97 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 24,162.86 −29.64 (−0.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,095.73 −5.04 (−0.06%)

USD Index 98.27 −0.14 (−0.14%)

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
11 Aug

Inflation in China remained flat. Nvidia and AMD will share revenue from chip sales to China with the US government

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.47% on Friday (weekly gain +1.03%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.78% (weekly gain of +1.88%), while the Nasdaq (US100) finished the day 0.95% higher (weekly gain of +2.72%). Tech stocks led the rally, with Apple rising by 4.2% after announcing a $600 billion investment plan, which boosted the Nasdaq. Investor optimism was fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following President Trump’s nomination of Steven Mnuchin to the Fed Board, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy despite ongoing concerns about new tariffs on imports from several countries. Tesla shares rose by 2.3% despite the dissolution of its Dojo team, and Intel was up 0.9% after its CEO received board support following calls for his resignation from Trump.

Nvidia and AMD have agreed to a deal with the US government to share 15% of the revenue from certain chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses for Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips. This unprecedented agreement reflects the White House’s strategic use of trade exceptions amid ongoing tariff pressure. President Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports unless companies “build in the United States” adds urgency to such agreements.

The Canadian dollar fell below $1.37 against the US dollar as weaker domestic employment data and looming trade factors undermined previous gains. A Statistics Canada report showing the country lost 41,000 jobs in July, far worse than the 13,500 gain analysts predicted, and a static unemployment rate of 6.9% heightened concerns about domestic demand and fueled expectations for a more dovish Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, President Trump’s decision to implement 35% tariffs on Canadian aluminum and impending duties on auto parts have added to the pressure on the trade-exposed Canadian economy.

European stock markets were mixed on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.12% (weekly gain +2.72%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.44% (weekly gain +2.11%), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.91% (weekly gain +4.55%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.06% (weekly gain +0.30%). European stocks ended the week with a strong rally, posting a sharp rise in the first week of August as markets continued to assess the outlook for the European economy amid uncertainty over US tariff levels and the ECB’s response. Banks continued to rise sharply, with BBVA, BNP Paribas, and UniCredit all gaining more than 2%. Siemens was up 2.2% after a volatile week, and Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and Stellantis each added more than 2%, setting the pace for automakers. On the other hand, Rheinmetall lost 1.5% on reports that the US and Russia might agree on a ceasefire in Ukraine.

WTI crude oil prices were flat on Friday at $63.9 per barrel, holding near a two-month low and showing a weekly drop of more than 5% amid growing fears of higher US tariffs and a possible meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. The recently implemented US tariffs, which took effect on Thursday, have intensified concerns about slowing economic growth and a potential decline in demand for crude oil. Meanwhile, news of a possible Trump-Putin summit raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict in Ukraine, which could ease sanctions on Russia. However, analysts remain cautious, stressing that a breakthrough is unlikely as Putin is expected to demand territorial concessions while the US pushes for a ceasefire.

Silver fell to $38 per ounce on Monday, partially reversing last week’s gains, as investors took profits ahead of key US inflation data that could determine the Federal Reserve’s policy direction. Markets are increasingly betting on a Fed rate cut in September amid signs of a weakening labor market, with a possible subsequent move in December also being priced in. Fed official Michelle Bowman stated on Saturday that the latest weak jobs report reinforces her concerns about labor market volatility and strengthens her view that three rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.

Asian markets were mostly higher last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 4.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) climbed 1.05%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.75%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.68%.

In July 2025, consumer prices in China were unchanged year-on-year, defying market expectations for a 0.1% decline and following a 0.1% increase in the prior month. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose to 0.8% y/y, the highest level in 17 months, after a 0.7% increase in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4% in July, slightly above the 0.3% expectations and reversing a 0.1% decrease in June. This was the highest monthly inflation figure since January, partly attributed to recent extreme weather conditions, including heavy rainfall.

On Monday, the Australian dollar paused near the $0.652 mark as investors cautiously awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy decision due on Tuesday. Markets broadly expect a 25-basis-point rate cut to 3.60% at the August meeting, following lower-than-expected second-quarter inflation and a rise in unemployment to a three-and-a-half-year high. This comes after the RBA’s unexpected decision in July to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%, citing a more balanced assessment of inflation risks and persistent labor market resilience.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,389.45 +49.45 (+0.78%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,175.61 +206.97 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 24,162.86 −29.64 (−0.12%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,095.73 −5.04 (−0.06%)

USD Index 98.27 −0.14 (−0.14%)

News feed for: 2025.08.11

  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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