Australia’s labor market is cooling. The Canadian dollar is depreciating under the influence of falling oil prices

By JustMarkets 

At the close on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.40%. The Technological Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.66%. US stocks finished a volatile session on Wednesday mostly higher, despite lingering trade tensions between the US and China and a protracted government shutdown. Morgan Stanley shares hit a record high, climbing by 4.7%, and Bank of America rose by 4.4% after both banks exceeded third-quarter profit expectations due to robust deal-making.

In mid-October, the Canadian dollar depreciated to a six-month low, falling to 1.4 per US dollar, influenced by declining oil prices, slowing domestic data growth, and expectations of Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. Oil prices, Canada’s largest export, dropped to a five-month low amid persistent US-China trade tensions, rising supply, and an expected increase in US inventories, fueling fears of oversupply and weakening demand, and stripping the currency of key support.

European indices traded mixed on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.23%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a gain of 1.99%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) dropped by 0.10%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.30%. Industrial production in the Eurozone contracted by 1.2% in August 2025 compared to the previous month, a reversal from the upwardly revised 0.5% growth in July, and slightly exceeding market expectations, which had predicted a 1.6% drop. Sweden’s annual inflation rate fell to 0.9% in September 2025 from a six-month high of 1.1% in August, confirming preliminary estimates and remaining below the 2% target set by the Riksbank. Meanwhile, the CPI with a fixed interest rate (CPIF) – the Riksbank’s preferred measure of inflation – rose to 3.1% year-on-year in September, slightly easing from the 3.2% growth in August, which was the highest since January 2024.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.7% to reach $58.3 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses for a second day and hovering near a five-month low, as persistent US-China trade tensions and increasing supply concerns weigh on sentiment. The International Energy Agency warned that the global oil market could see a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day in 2026, intensifying worries about sluggish demand. Expectations of another weekly rise in US crude oil inventories amplified signs of oversupply, which could mark the third consecutive week of inventory growth. Traders are now awaiting official US inventory data for clearer demand signals as the market continues to absorb returning OPEC+ production.

Asian markets were mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.76%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.84%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.03%.

The Australian dollar weakened below $0.650 on Thursday, reversing the previous session’s gains, after a weaker employment report revived expectations of an RBA rate cut. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose more than expected to 4.5%, the highest level in almost four years, while employment increased by only 14,900 people, falling short of the 20,000 prognosis. This data signals a further softening of the labor market, strengthening bets that the Reserve Bank (RBA) may resume cutting rates as early as next month. Investors now price in a 71% chance of policy easing, compared to 40% before the data release. Attention now turns to third-quarter inflation data.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,671.06 +26.75 (+0.40%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,253.31 −17.15 (−0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 24,181.37 −55.57 (−0.23%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,424.75 −28.02 (−0.30%)

USD Index 98.69 −0.36 (−0.36%)

News feed for: 2025.10.16

  • Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3);
  • Canada BoC Macklem Speech at 20:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Gold Extends Its Rally as Safe-Haven Demand Builds

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The gold market continues to attract strong inflows, underscoring its appeal as a premier defensive asset. Growing anxieties over a potential US government shutdown are fuelling investor nervousness, with Congress once again at a budget impasse. This political deadlock is prompting a flight to safety, benefiting traditional havens like gold and the Swiss franc.

Further pressure on the US dollar stems from the escalation of the trade war, as Donald Trump’s rhetoric grows increasingly assertive. Proposals for higher tariffs, a overhaul of import flows, and fresh threats against China are being factored into market expectations for future inflation and Federal Reserve policy.

Amid this backdrop, the yield on 10-year US Treasuries has dipped below 4.2%, while the DXY dollar index struggles for direction. Markets are progressively pricing in a more dovish Fed stance by year-end, creating a solid fundamental base for gold.

Investors are increasingly turning to XAU/USD as a hedge against mounting political and economic uncertainty, viewing the metal as a reliable insurance policy.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, gold found strong support at 4,190 USD and is advancing towards an initial target of 4,266 USD. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback towards 4,100 USD is anticipated. Provided the broader bullish structure holds, this could establish a foundation for a subsequent upward wave, with potential targets at 4,300 – 4,400 USD. The MACD indicator corroborates this constructive outlook. Its signal line is firmly above zero and trending higher, confirming the current dominance of buyers.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the instrument decisively broke above the 4,190 USD resistance, consolidating around this level before extending its gains towards 4,266 USD. A period of profit-taking is expected here, likely triggering a retracement to retest 4,190 USD as support. A successful hold above this level could signal a resumption of the uptrend, targeting 4,300 – 4,400 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line positioned above 50 and advancing towards 80, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

Conclusion

Gold’s rally is being driven by a powerful confluence of political uncertainty, trade war escalation, and shifting monetary policy expectations. While a short-term technical correction is likely as profits are taken, the fundamental and technical backdrop remains decidedly bullish.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Industrial facilities owned by profitable companies release more of their toxic waste into the environment

By Mahelet G Fikru, Missouri University of Science and Technology and Jennifer Brodmann, California State University, Dominguez Hills 

How much pollution a facility engaged in production or resource extraction emits isn’t just based on its location, its industry or the type of work it does. That’s what our team of environmental and financial economists found when we examined how corporate characteristics shape pollution emissions.

Pollution emissions rates also vary with specific characteristics of the company that owns the facility – such as how many patents it holds, how profitable it is and how many employees it has, according to an analysis we have conducted of corporate pollution data.

We found that industrial and mining facilities owned by profitable companies with relatively few patents and fewer employees tend to release higher proportions of their toxic waste into the environment – into the air, into water or onto soil.

By contrast, industrial sites owned by unprofitable companies with higher levels of innovation and more personnel tend to handle higher proportions of their toxic waste in more environmentally responsible ways, such as processing them into nontoxic forms or recycling them, or burning them to generate energy.

Corporations publish their pollution data

A 1986 federal law requires companies that are in certain industries, employ more than 10 people and make, use or process significant amounts of certain toxic or dangerous chemicals to tell the government where those chemicals go after the company is done with them.

That data is collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in a database called the Toxics Release Inventory. That data includes information about the companies, their facilities and locations, and what they do with their waste chemicals.

The goal is not only to inform the public about which dangerous chemicals are being used in their communities, but also to encourage companies to use cleaner methods and handle their waste in ways that are more environmentally responsible.

Overall, U.S. companies reported releasing to the environment 3.3 billion pounds of toxic chemicals (1.5 billion kg) in 2023, a 21% decrease from 2014. The decline reflects increased waste management, adoption of pollution prevention and cleaner technologies, in addition to the fact that disclosure requirements motivate companies to reduce releases.

The 2023 releases came from over 21,600 industrial facilities in all 50 states and various U.S. territories, including Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam and American Samoa. One-fifth of the facilities reporting toxic releases in 2023 were in Texas, Ohio and California.

What kinds of businesses release toxic pollution?

Metal mining, chemical manufacturing, primary metals, natural gas processing and electric utilities represent the top five polluting industrial sectors in the U.S. Combined, businesses in those sectors accounted for 78% of the toxic chemicals released in 2023.

Research has found that, often, higher levels of toxic chemical releases come from industrial facilities in less populated, economically disadvantaged, rural or minority communities.

But geography and population are not the whole story. Even within the same area, some facilities pollute a lot less than others. Our inquiry into the differences between those facilities has found that corporate characteristics matter a lot – such as operational size, innovative capacity and financial strength.

In our analysis, we combined the data companies reported to the EPA about toxic chemical releases with financial information on those companies and ZIP-code level geographic and demographic data. We found that corporate characteristics like profitability, employment size and number of patents are more strongly connected with toxic chemical releases than a community’s population density, minority-group percentage or household income.

We looked at what percentage of its toxic chemical waste a facility or mine released to the environment versus how much it treated, recycled or incinerated.

The average facility in our sample, which included 1,976 facilities owned by companies for which financial data is available, released about 39% of its toxic chemical waste to the environment, whether to air, water or land – with the remaining 61% of it managed through recycling, treatment or energy recovery either on-site or off-site.

But facilities in different industries have different release rates. For example, about 99% of toxic chemicals from coal mines are released to the environment, compared with 81% for natural gas extraction, recovery and processing; 25% for power-generating electric utilities; and less than 3% for electrical equipment manufacturers.

The role of innovation

One corporate attribute we examined was innovation, which we measured by counting corporations’ patent families, which are groups of patent documents related to the same invention, even if they are filed in different countries. We found that companies with more patent families tend to release less of their toxic waste to the environment.

Specifically, facilities owned by the top 25% of companies, when rated by innovation, released an average of 32.5% of their toxic waste to the environment, which is 8 percentage points lower than the average of facilities owned by the remaining companies in the sample.

We hypothesize that innovation may give firms a competitive advantage that also enables them to adopt cleaner production technologies or invest in more environmentally conscious methods of handling waste containing toxic chemicals, thereby preventing toxic chemicals from being directly released to the environment.

Size and profitability matter, too

We also looked at companies’ size – in terms of number of employees – and their profitability, to see how those connected with pollution rates at the facilities the company owns.

We found that larger companies, those with more than 19,000 employees, own facilities that release an average of 31% of their toxic chemical waste to the environment. By contrast, facilities owned by midsized companies, from 1,000 to 19,000 workers, release 45%, on average. Those owned by smaller companies, with less than 1,000 employees, release an average of 42% of their toxic chemical waste to the environment.

An important note is that those larger companies, which are more likely to have multiple locations, often own facilities that handle larger volumes of chemicals. So even if they release smaller proportions of their toxic waste to the environment, that may still add up to larger quantities.

We also found that industrial facilities owned by profitable firms have higher average rates of releasing toxic chemicals to the environment than those owned by unprofitable companies.

Facilities owned by companies with positive net income, according to their income statements obtained from PitchBook, a company that collects data on corporations, released an average of 40% of their toxic-chemical-containing wastes to the environment. Facilities owned by companies with negative net income released an average of 31% of their toxic chemical waste to the environment. To us, that indicates that financially strong companies are not necessarily more environmentally responsible. That may be evidence that profitable firms make money in part by contaminating the environment rather than paying for pollution prevention or cleanup.

Our analysis shows that geography and demographics alone do not fully account for industries’ and facilities’ differing levels of pollution. Corporate characteristics are also key factors in how toxic waste is handled and disposed of.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Mahelet G Fikru, Professor of Economics, Missouri University of Science and Technology and Jennifer Brodmann, Associate Professor of Accounting, Finance and Economics, California State University, Dominguez Hills

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

How this year’s Nobel winners changed the thinking on economic growth

By Antonio Navas, University of Sheffield 

What makes some countries rich and others poor? Is there any action a country can take to improve living standards for its citizens? Economists have wondered about this for centuries. If the answer to the second question is yes, then the impact on people’s lives could be staggering.

This year’s Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences (commonly known as the Nobel prize for economics) has gone to three researchers who have provided answers to these questions: Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt and Joel Mokyr.

For most of human history, economic stagnation has been the norm – modern economic growth is very recent from a historical point of view. This year’s winners have been honoured for their contributions towards explaining how to achieve sustained economic growth.

At the beginning of the 1980s, theories around economic growth were largely dominated by the works of American economist Robert Solow. An important conclusion emerged: in the long-run, per-capita income growth is determined by technological progress.

Solow’s framework, however, did not explain how technology accumulates over time, nor the role of institutions and policies in boosting it. As such, the theory can neither explain why countries grow differently for sustained periods nor what kind of policies could help a country improve its long-run growth performance.

It’s possible to argue that technological innovation comes from the work of scientists, who are motivated less by money than the rest of society might be. As such, there would be little that countries could do to intervene – technological innovations would be the result of the scientists’ own interests and motivations.

But that thinking changed with the emergence of endogenous growth theory, which aims to explain which forces drive innovation. This includes the works of Paul Romer, Nobel prizewinner in 2018, as well as this year’s winners Aghion and Howitt.

These three authors advocate for theories in which technological progress ultimately derives from firms trying to create new products (Romer) or improve the quality of existing products (Aghion and Howitt). For firms to try to break new ground, they need to have the right incentives.

Creative destruction

While Romer recognises the importance of intellectual property rights to reward firms financially for creating new products, the framework of Aghion and Howitt outlines the importance of something known as “creative destruction”.

This is where innovation results from a battle between firms trying to get the best-quality products to meet consumer needs. In their framework, a new innovation means the displacement of an existing one.

In their basic model, protecting intellectual property is important in order to reward firms for innovating. But at the same time, innovations do not come from leaders but from new entrants to the industry. Incumbents do not have the same incentive to innovate because it will not improve their position in the sector. Consequently, too much protection generates barriers to entry and may slow growth.

But what is less explored in their work is the idea that each innovation brings winners (consumers and innovative firms) and losers (firms and workers under the old, displaced technology). These tensions could shape a country’s destiny in terms of growth – as other works have pointed out, the owners of the old technology may try to block innovation.

This is where Mokyr complements these works perfectly by providing a historical context. Mokyr’s work focuses on the origins of the Industrial Revolution and also the history of technological progress from ancient times until today.

Mokyr noted that while scientific discoveries were behind technological progress, a scientific discovery was not a guarantee of technological advances.

It was only when the modern world started to apply the knowledge discovered by scientists to problems that would improve people’s lives that humans saw sustained growth. In Mokyr’s book The Gifts of Athena, he argues that the Enlightenment was behind the change in scientists’ motivations.

illustrated headshots of the 2025 nobel prizewinners in economics.
The 2025 winners Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt.
Ill. Niklas Elmehed © Nobel Prize Outreach

In Mokyr’s works, for growth to be sustained it is vital that knowledge flows and accumulates. This was the spirit embedded in the Industrial Revolution and it’s what fostered the creation of the institution I am working in – the University of Sheffield, which enjoyed financial support from the steel industry in the 19th century.

Mokyr’s later works emphasise the key role of a culture of knowledge in order for growth to improve living standards. As such, openness to new ideas becomes crucial.

Similarly, Aghion and Howitt’s framework has become a standard tool in economics. It has been used to explore many important questions for human wellbeing: the relationship between competition and innovation, unemployment and growth, growth and income inequality, and globalisation, among many other topics.

Analysis using their framework still has an impact on our lives today. It is present in policy debates around big data, artificial intelligence and green innovation. And Mokyr’s analysis of how knowledge accumulates poses a central question around what countries can do to encourage an innovation ecosystem and improve the lives of their citizens.

But this year’s prize is also a warning about the consequences of damaging the engines of growth. Scientists collaborating with firms to advance living standards is the ultimate elixir for growth. Undermining science, globalisation and competition might not be the right recipe.The Conversation

About the Author:

Antonio Navas, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sheffield

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Oil prices continue to fall. Platinum narrows its price gap with gold

By JustMarkets 

The Dow Jones Index (US30) closed up 0.42% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.20%. The technological Nasdaq Index (US100) closed lower by 0.69%. Speaking at the NABE meeting in Philadelphia, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that economic activity was somewhat stronger than expected but warned of rising risks to employment. The Chair also indicated that the Federal Reserve could complete the reduction of its balance sheet in the coming months, noting that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening. He warned that procrastination risks increasing the impact of tariffs and potential job cuts, and the recent lack of key data has added uncertainty to the policy outlook.

The IMF expects a slowdown in global economic growth to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, compared to 3.3% in 2024, as the world economy adapts to conditions of increased protectionism and fragmentation, according to the latest “World Economic Outlook” (WEO) report. By country, US economic growth is expected to be 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, while China’s economic growth rate will slow to 4.8% and 4.2%, respectively. Eurozone economic growth will be 1.2% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, the UK’s 1.3% in both years, and Japan’s 1.1% and 0.6%. Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to continue to decline, although trends will vary across countries: it will remain above target in the US, with risks skewed to the upside, while remaining subdued in other countries.

European indices traded mixed on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down by 0.18%, Spain’s IBEX35 Index (ES35) rose by 0.29%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.10%. In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced plans to suspend pension reform this autumn, partially yielding to the demands of the Socialists, whose support is crucial for the government’s survival. On the corporate front, German parts manufacturer Continental showed a drop of more than 4%, following losses by the French company Michelin after the latter cut its outlook. It was followed by Siemens, which fell 3.2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the company’s stock rating to “equal-weight” from “overweight”.

WTI crude oil prices fell 1.3% to reach $58.7 per barrel on Tuesday, recovering slightly after hitting a five-month low earlier in the session, as escalating US-China tensions and a bearish prognosis from the International Energy Agency weighed on sentiment. Beijing announced sanctions against five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean and hinted at further retaliation after Washington imposed new trade restrictions, increasing market uncertainty. The IEA expects a record global oil surplus in 2026 of nearly 4 million barrels per day, 18% higher than the previous outlook, as OPEC+ ramps up production and output from rivals continues to grow.

Platinum (XPT/USD) held above $1640 per ounce, nearing a 12-year high, supported by favorable market fundamentals and escalating US-China trade tensions. Platinum is regaining share in luxury jewelry as its price gap with gold narrows. Steady industrial demand persists for catalysts in gasoline cars, in refining, and the chemical industry. Demand for a “safe-haven currency” increased amid plans by the US and China to impose additional port fees on shipping companies starting Tuesday.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.58%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.72%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.73%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.19%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan rose to 7.12 per dollar, breaking a three-day losing streak, as the People’s Bank of China reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining currency stability. The central bank continued to set the daily yuan reference rate significantly above market expectations, aiming to mitigate the broader economic and geopolitical fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions. On the economic front, the latest inflation data indicated continued weakness, reflected in persistent deflationary pressure.

The Australian dollar strengthened to around $0.650, recovering some of the previous session’s losses, as investors assessed comments from an RBA official who indicated the probability of higher-than-expected inflation. Markets now estimate the probability of a rate cut at the November 4 meeting as roughly equal, and the probability of a December cut at about 60%, down from the previous 70%. Attention now turns to labor market data to be released later this week.

The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.572 but remained near the six-month low reached in the previous session, as investors digested statements from Reserve Bank of New Zealand Chief Economist Paul Conway. Conway noted that the current Official Cash Rate of 2.5% is at the lower end of the central bank’s neutral range but emphasized that the central bank remains open to further policy easing if necessary. He added that policymakers prefer to wait for economic data before making a decision. Additional pressure on the currency came from renewed US-China tensions, which introduced new uncertainty to global markets and dampened risk appetite.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,641.51 −13.21 (−0.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,262.69 +195.11 (+0.42%)

DAX (DE40) 24,236.94 −150.99 (−0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,452.77 +9.90 (+0.10%)

USD Index 99.03 −0.24 (−0.24%)

News feed for: 2025.10.15

  • China Inflation Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia RBA Gov Bullock Speech at 22:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

British Pound Braces for Further Losses

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The British pound remains under sustained pressure, driven by a weakening domestic economy and receding inflation concerns. Recent UK macroeconomic data indicate stagnation in the service sector and a continued decline in consumer spending.

At the same time, slowing wage growth is giving the Bank of England greater flexibility to adopt a more dovish stance. Market expectations now point to a high likelihood of a rate cut at one of the bank’s forthcoming meetings.

Political uncertainty is also weighing on the currency. The government’s fragile parliamentary position and deepening internal divisions over tax and fiscal policy are adding to sterling’s vulnerability. This is compounded by falling business confidence and subdued investment activity, raising concerns about the UK’s economic trajectory into the fourth quarter.

Externally, the US dollar continues to gain support. Recent remarks from Federal Reserve officials suggest a commitment to maintaining current interest rate levels through year-end, bolstering the greenback’s appeal. In addition, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing volatility in commodity markets are fuelling demand for safe-haven assets, including the dollar.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains tilted towards further GBP/USD depreciation in the near to medium term.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

A consolidation range has formed around 1.3310. A downward breakout appears likely, signalling a continuation of the third declining wave towards a local target of 1.3125. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line lies below zero and is pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has also formed a consolidation range around 1.3310, with the third wave of the broader downtrend now largely confirmed. The first leg of this wave reached 1.3252, followed by a correction to 1.3372. A further decline toward at least 1.3244 is anticipated, with an extension of the downward structure to 1.3125 also possible. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

Sterling continues to face significant headwinds from both domestic and external factors. With monetary and political dynamics aligned against it and technical structure favouring the downside, GBP/USD appears set for further declines in the sessions ahead.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Co. to Combine With Semiconductor Co. to Create AI Infrastructure

Source: Streetwise Reports (10/10/25)

Energy innovation company Jericho Energy Ventures Inc. (JEV:TSX.V; JROOF:OTC; JLM:FRA) says it has signed a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) for a proposed all-stock business combination with Smartkem Inc. (SMTK:Nasdaq). Find out the terms of the proposed merger.

Energy innovation company Jericho Energy Ventures Inc. (JEV:TSX.V; JROOF:OTC; JLM:FRA) announced it has signed a non-binding Letter of Intent (LOI) dated October 6, 2025, with Smartkem Inc. (SMTK:Nasdaq), a company pioneering a new class of organic semiconductor technology, for a proposed all-stock business combination, according to a release.

If finalized, the Proposed Transaction would create a Nasdaq-listed, U.S.-owned and controlled artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure company, merging low-cost domestic energy with advanced semiconductor packaging and materials to meet the rising demand for AI compute capacity.

JEV said it is strategically positioned at the crossroads of energy and AI, utilizing its robust energy framework and renewable innovations to provide reliable, cost-effective power for AI data centers.

The proposed transaction aims to integrate Smartkem’s patented organic semiconductor platform into Jericho’s infrastructure to accelerate: energy-efficient AI data centers designed for next-generation workloads, advanced AI chip packaging that minimizes power consumption and heat, low-power optical data transmission for faster interconnects, and conformable sensors for environmental monitoring and operational resilience, Jericho noted in the release.

“AI compute growth is driving unprecedented demand for U.S. power and infrastructure,” Jericho Chief Executive Officer Brian Williamson said. “By combining JEV’s scalable energy platform with Smartkem’s semiconductor breakthroughs, we can deliver a new generation of faster, efficient, and more resilient AI data centers.”

Ian Jenks, chairman and CEO of Smartkem, added, “This proposed transaction positions Smartkem’s technology at the center of the largest technology build-out of our era. We believe this combination provides the pathway for our patented materials to reach their full commercial potential inside next-generation AI infrastructure.”

“Together, JEV and Smartkem are developing a unified U.S. platform for AI data centers that pairs energy resilience with advanced semiconductors, a vertically integrated strategy aimed at driving sustainable growth and creating value for shareholders,” said Anthony Amato, strategic advisor to Smartkem.

According to Jericho, some highlights of the proposed transaction include establishing a fully integrated platform covering energy supply and AI data center infrastructure and positioning the combined company to capitalize on the forecasted growth in U.S. power demand for AI data centers.

The combination of JEV’s scalable energy and infrastructure expertise with Smartkem’s patented organic semiconductor materials and OTFT technologies will drive innovation and enhance data center efficiency, JEV said.

The transaction “ensures strategic technology assets are developed, deployed, and scaled under U.S. ownership for global AI infrastructure partners,” the release said.

It also combines two experience management teams “focused on commercializing disruptive innovations at scale.”

Terms of the Proposed Transaction

Under the LOI, the proposed transaction is structured as an all-stock business combination, executed through either a share exchange or statutory merger, Jericho said. In this arrangement, Smartkem would be the surviving legal entity and continue as a publicly listed company on The Nasdaq Stock Market, becoming the “combined company.”

Upon closing, Jericho stockholders would own 65%, while Smartkem stockholders, prior to the transaction, would own 35% of the fully diluted equity securities of the combined company, subject to certain adjustments.

Brian Williamson, currently the CEO of Jericho, would assume the role of CEO for the combined company, according to the release. The board of directors would be reconstituted to include a majority of members designated by Jericho, in compliance with Nasdaq and SEC requirements.

Both companies will require significant additional capital to negotiate the proposed transaction, obtain necessary stockholder approvals, and complete the transaction. Closing is contingent on several conditions, including negotiating a definitive agreement, satisfactory due diligence, board and stockholder approvals, and Nasdaq’s approval for continued listing.

Smartkem and Jericho have agreed to a 60-day exclusivity period to negotiate the terms of a definitive agreement. This period can be terminated by either party under certain conditions, including if Smartkem does not purchase Jericho common shares valued at least US$500,000 by November 30, 2025. While the LOI is active, Smartkem will purchase Jericho common shares from treasury, subject to certain conditions.

The transaction terms outlined in the LOI are expected to be replaced by a definitive agreement. The final legal structure may be adjusted based on tax, corporate, securities, and accounting considerations.

About Smartkem

Smartkem is revolutionizing electronics with a new class of transistors developed using its proprietary semiconductor materials, Jericho said in the release. Its TRUFLEX® semiconductor polymers enable low-temperature printing processes compatible with existing manufacturing infrastructure, delivering low-cost, high-performance displays. The platform is applicable in various display technologies, including MicroLED, LCD, and AMOLED, as well as advanced computer and AI chip packaging, sensors, and logic.

Smartkem designs and develops its materials at its R&D facility in Manchester, U.K., and offers prototyping services at the Centre for Process Innovation (CPI) in Sedgefield, U.K. It also operates a field application office in Hsinchu, Taiwan, near its collaboration partner, The Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI).

Smartkem is developing a commercial-scale production process and Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools to demonstrate the commercial viability of manufacturing a new generation of displays using its materials.

The company holds an extensive IP portfolio, including 140 granted patents across 17 patent families, 14 pending patents, and 40 codified trade secrets. For more information, visit the Smartkem website or follow them on LinkedIn.

JEV’s Data Center Initiative

Earlier this year, Jericho launched its data center initiative, strategically leveraging its expansive 41,000-acre portfolio of active oil and gas joint venture properties in Oklahoma. By harnessing abundant, low-cost on-site natural gas, JEV is transforming its energy assets into secure, scalable, high-performance AI computing hubs tailored for the AI era.

JEV’s build-to-suit (BTS) data centers capitalize on the company’s extensive network of over 60 miles of gas, power, and water infrastructure, along with prime positioning on a U.S. fiber “superhighway,” to offer unparalleled connectivity and performance.

In July, Jericho announced a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with M2 Development Solutions LLC to accelerate the development of AI data centers across the United States. Finalized on July 6, the agreement expands Jericho’s reach beyond its Oklahoma asset base into Ohio and Nevada, utilizing M2’s large-scale development sites.

The Ohio location spans 400 acres and includes access to utility power and on-site natural gas power generation assets. In Nevada, the 3,700-acre site offers a diverse energy mix, including utility power access, on-site geothermal and solar capabilities, and natural gas-fed power generation. These features provide energy diversification options at a scale suitable for AI data center operations, which demand substantial and reliable power sources.

“Our partnership with M2 is a transformative step in executing our AI data center strategy,” said Williamson at the time. “Integrating M2’s gigawatt-scale sites accelerates our ability to deliver scalable, energy-efficient infrastructure for modern AI workloads.”

The Catalyst: We’re Consuming More Electricity Than Ever

In a significant shift from nearly two decades of stagnant U.S. load growth, Americans are now consuming more electricity than ever, according to a report by ICF International. The rapid expansion of data centers to support AI technology, along with a surge in new manufacturing and oil and gas production, is driving a notable increase in industrial electricity demand.

Additionally, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and other energy-intensive products are further contributing to this growth. ICF’s analysis suggests that U.S. electricity demand is expected to rise by 25% by 2030 and by 78% by 2050, compared to 2023 levels. This surge in demand has significant implications for the reliability and affordability of electricity. For residential customers, electricity rates could increase by 15% to 40% by 2030, depending on the market. By 2050, some rates might even double.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Jericho Energy Ventures Inc. (JEV:TSX.V; JROOF:OTC; JLM:FRA)


In a piece for U.S. Global Investors dated July 25, Frank Holmes compared the current AI advancements to the scale and ambition of the defense expansion during the Reagan era or the shale boom of the 2010s.

According to Grand View Research, the global data center market size was estimated at US$347.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$652.01 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.2% from 2025 to 2030. “The rapid adoption of digital transformation initiatives, cloud computing, and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and the Internet of Things (IoT) have substantially increased demand,” Holmes noted.

Ownership and Share Structure

Around 41% of Jericho’s shares are held by management and insiders, the company said. They include CEO Brian Williamson, who owns 1.38%; founder Allen Wilson, who owns 0.99%; and board member Nicholas Baxter, who owns 0.49%; according to Refinitiv’s latest research.

Around 34% of shares are held by the company’s “Top 10 external shareholders.” The rest is in retail.

JEV’s market cap is CA$35.07 million, and it trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.08 and CA$0.21. It has 304.03 million shares outstanding, about 220.98 million floating.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Jericho Energy Ventures Inc.
  2. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  3. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Investors focus shifts to Q3 earnings. Silver sets all-time high since 1980

By JustMarkets 

Yesterday, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.52% on Thursday. The S&P 500 (US500) dropped by 0.28%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed 0.08% lower. Market sentiment worsened due to a government shutdown, which delayed the release of key economic data. This caused investor focus to shift to the upcoming third-quarter earnings reports, offering insight into the state of the economy, and to AI-driven growth. Shares of Apple, Alphabet, Tesla, and Walmart all lost more than -0.7%, while PepsiCo rose by 4.2% after reporting higher-than-expected revenue and profit. Delta Air Lines jumped 4.3% on optimistic guidance, Nvidia added 1.8% after the US approved billions of dollars in chip exports to the UAE, and Costco climbed 3.1% on strong September sales.

The Canadian dollar weakened to a level above 1.400 per US dollar, hitting its lowest level since early April amid a stronger dollar and lower oil prices. In Canada, attention turns to Friday’s official September jobs report, which is expected to show further labor market softening with the unemployment rate rising from 7.1% to 7.2%. This data could provide new insight into the Bank of Canada’s rate-change prospects.

Mexico’s annual inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, reaching 3.76% in September 2025, up from 3.57% in August, though still within the central bank’s 2-4% target range. Analysts had anticipated a slightly higher figure of 3.79%. Every month, consumer prices rose by 0.23% after a 0.06% increase in August, compared to market estimates of 0.27%.

European equity markets were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) gained 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed down 0.23%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) fell by 0.60%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.41% on Thursday. European stocks fell from record highs on Thursday. European banks lost over 1%, driven mainly by the drop in HSBC, whose shares fell by 4.5% after announcing a proposal to privatize its 63% owned Hong Kong subsidiary, Hang Seng Bank. Luxury and consumer goods stocks also took a hit: Ferrari plunged 15% after slashing its full-year and 2030 forecasts and cutting its electric vehicle sales targets, while LVMH, Hermès, and L’Oréal fell 2.6%, 2.2%, and 1.7%, respectively. Today, the focus was on France as President Macron pledged to name a new Prime Minister within 48 hours following the resignation of Sebastien Lecornu, amid calls to avoid appointing another centrist ally.

The spot price of silver jumped more than 4% to a record high of $51 per ounce, surpassing the previous peak recorded during the Hunt brothers’ market squeeze in 1980, as strong safe-haven demand met limited supply. The precious metal has surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold. This surge is driven by concerns over US financial risks, the possibility of interest rate cuts, questions about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and unsustainable levels of global deficits and debt. A shortage of freely available silver in the London market is providing further support for prices.

The US natural gas prices dropped to around $3.3 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), retreating from an 11-week high following a larger-than-expected inventory build. The US Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending October 3rd, exceeding the forecast of 77 bcf and slightly above last year’s 78 bcf, though below the five-year average of 94 bcf.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.85%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.29%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.25%.

The Australian economy is performing well with inflation within the central bank’s target range (2-3%) and the labor market remaining resilient, Governor Michele Bullock told a parliamentary committee on Friday. Household consumption is growing, offsetting weaker government demand and supporting growth. Last month, the Reserve Bank left interest rates at 3.6% after three cuts since February. Bullock noted that services inflation remains “sticky” and highlighted global uncertainty, including US protectionist policies, geopolitical tensions, and slowing Chinese demand. However, the worst-case scenarios for tariffs have not materialized.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,735.11 −18.61 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,358.42 −243.36 (−0.52%)

DAX (DE40) 24,611.25 +14.12 (+0.06%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,509.40 −39.47 (−0.41%)

USD index 99.40 +0.49 (+0.49%)

News feed for: 2025.10.10

  • Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Norway Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) (Tentative);
  • US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) (Tentative);
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD Plummets as Investors Shun Risk

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair tumbled to 1.1569 on Friday, propelling the US dollar to a two-month high. The rally comes as investors retreat from both the euro and the yen, which have lost their appeal.

The yen has depreciated roughly 4.0% against the dollar since Sanae Takaichi won the race to become Japan’s next prime minister. Markets are anticipating an expansion of fiscal stimulus and a continuation of accommodative monetary policy under the new leadership.

Meanwhile, the euro has weakened by approximately 1.5%, pressured by political instability in France. President Emmanuel Macron is now seeking his sixth prime minister in just two years, creating significant uncertainty.

In the United States, the government shutdown has entered its ninth day. This has delayed the release of key macroeconomic data, leaving markets without crucial information to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

Market pricing currently indicates a 95% probability of a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in October. However, the likelihood of a subsequent easing in December has fallen to 80%, down from 90% a week ago.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The pair completed a downward wave to 1.1622 and subsequently formed a consolidation range around this level. Today’s downward breakout from this range has completed a further decline to 1.1542. A corrective pullback to 1.1584 is now possible. Following this, a decline towards 1.1520 is expected, with the potential to extend the downtrend to 1.1500. This bearish scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing firmly downward.

H1 Chart:

A decline to 1.1640 was followed by the formation of a consolidation range below this level. The subsequent downward movement culminated in a wave reaching 1.1542. A short-term correction to 1.1580 is possible today. Upon its completion, a further decline to 1.1520 is anticipated, with the local target for the downward wave structure seen at 1.1500. Technically, this outlook is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and pointing sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD is firmly on the back foot, driven by a stronger US dollar and distinct weaknesses in both the euro and yen. The technical structure is overwhelmingly bearish, pointing towards a continued decline with key targets at 1.1520 and 1.1500.

 

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Today’s AI hype has echoes of a devastating technology boom and bust 100 years ago

By Cameron Shackell, Queensland University of Technology 

The electrification boom of the 1920s set the United States up for a century of industrial dominance and powered a global economic revolution.

But before electricity faded from a red-hot tech sector into invisible infrastructure, the world went through profound social change, a speculative bubble, a stock market crash, mass unemployment and a decade of global turmoil.

Understanding this history matters now. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a similar general purpose technology and looks set to reshape every aspect of the economy. But it’s already showing some of the hallmarks of electricity’s rise, peak and bust in the decade known as the Roaring Twenties.

The reckoning that followed could be about to repeat.

A crowd gathers outside the New York Stock Exchange following the ‘Great Crash’ of October 1929.
New York World-Telegram and the Sun Newspaper Photograph Collection, US Library of Congress

First came the electricity boom

A century ago, when people at the New York Stock Exchange talked about the latest “high tech” investments, they were talking about electricity.

Investors poured money into suppliers such as Electric Bond & Share and Commonwealth Edison, as well as companies using electricity in new ways, such as General Electric (for appliances), AT&T (telecommunications) and RCA (radio).

It wasn’t a hard sell. Electricity brought modern movies, new magazines from faster printing presses, and evenings by the radio.

It was also an obvious economic game changer, promising automation, higher productivity, and a future full of leisure and consumption. In 1920, even Soviet revolutionary leader Vladimir Lenin declared: “Communism is Soviet power plus the electrification of the whole country.”

Today, a similar global urgency grips both communist and capitalist countries about AI, not least because of military applications.

Then came the peak

Like AI stocks now, electricity stocks “became favorites in the boom even though their fundamentals were difficult to assess”.

Market power was concentrated. Big players used complex holding structures to dodge rules and sell shares in basically the same companies to the public under different names.

US finance professor Harold Bierman, who argued that attempts to regulate overpriced utility stocks were a direct trigger for the crash, estimated that utilities made up 18% of the New York Stock Exchange in September 1929. Within electricity supply, 80% of the market was owned by just a handful of holding firms.

But that’s just the utilities. As today with AI, there was a much larger ecosystem.

Almost every 1920s “megacap” (the largest companies at the time) owed something to electrification. General Motors, for example, had overtaken Ford using new electric production techniques.

Essentially, electricity became the backdrop to the market in the same way AI is doing, as businesses work to become “AI-enabled”.

No wonder that today tech giants command over a third of the S&P 500 index and nearly three-quarters of the NASDAQ. Transformative technology drives not only economic growth, but also extreme market concentration.

In 1929, to reflect the new sector’s importance, Dow Jones launched the last of its three great stock averages: the electricity-heavy Dow Jones Utilities Average.

But then came the bust

The Dow Jones Utilities Average went as high as 144 in 1929. But by 1934, it had collapsed to just 17.

No single cause explains the New York Stock Exchange’s unprecedented “Great Crash”, which began on October 24 1929 and preceded the worldwide Great Depression.

That crash triggered a banking crisis, credit collapse, business failures, and a drastic fall in production. Unemployment soared from just 3% to 25% of US workers by 1933 and stayed in double figures until the US entered the second world war in 1941.

Lithograph of Wall Street, New York City, with panicked crowd, lightning, people jumping out of buildings, buildings falling, at time of stock market crash in 1929.
Lithograph of Wall Street, New York City, after the 1929 stock market crash. Jame Rosenberg, Ben and Beatrice Goldstein Foundation collection, US Library of Congress

The ripple effects were global, with most countries seeing a rise in unemployment, especially in countries reliant on international trade, such as Chile, Australia and Canada, as well as Germany.

The promised age of shorter hours and electric leisure turned into soup kitchens and bread lines.

The collapse exposed fraud and excess. Electricity entrepreneur Samuel Insull, once Thomas Edison’s protégé and builder of Chicago’s Commonwealth Edison, was at one point worth US$150 million – an even more staggering amount at the time.

But after Insull’s empire went bankrupt in 1932, he was indicted for embezzlement and larceny. He fled overseas, was brought back, and eventually acquitted – but 600,000 shareholders and 500,000 bondholders lost everything.

However, to some Insull seemed less a criminal mastermind than a scapegoat for a system whose flaws ran far deeper.

Reforms unthinkable during the boom years followed.

The Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935 broke up the huge holding company structures and imposed regional separation. Once exciting electricity darlings became boring regulated infrastructure: a fact reflected in the humble “Electric Company” square on the original 1935 Monopoly board.

Lessons from the 1920s for today

AI is rolling out faster than even those seeking to use it for business or government policy can sometimes manage properly.

Like electricity a century ago, a few interconnected firms are building today’s AI infrastructure.

And like a century ago, investors are piling in – though many don’t know the extent of their exposure through their superannuation funds or exchange traded funds (ETFs).

Just as in the late 1920s, today’s regulation of AI is still loose in many parts of the world – though the European Union is taking a tougher approach with its world-first AI law.

US President Donald Trump has taken the opposite approach, actively cutting “onerous regulation” of AI. Some US states have responded by taking action themselves. The courts, when consulted, are hamstrung by laws and definitions written for a different era.

Can we transition to AI being invisible infrastructure like electricity without a another bust, only then followed by reform?

If the parallels to the electrification boom remain unnoticed, the chances are slim.The Conversation

About the Author:

Cameron Shackell, Sessional Academic, School of Information Systems, Queensland University of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.