InvestMacro

GBP/USD Tumbles: Investors Lose Confidence in UK Fiscal Sustainability

The GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3366 on Wednesday, reflecting intensified selling pressure on the pound. Sterling’s weakness stems from a sharp rise in UK government bond yields and broader global concerns regarding fiscal stability.

The yield on 30-year gilts climbed to 5.695%, marking its highest level in 25 years. This surge highlights mounting borrowing costs and raises the risk of a debt spiral. Higher yields increase debt-servicing expenses, potentially forcing the government to borrow additional funds and further pushing yields upward.

Amid a broader sell-off in debt markets, the pound has depreciated by over 1% within 24 hours, with losses continuing into mid-week. The situation evokes memories of the Liz Truss crisis, which severely eroded confidence in the UK’s fiscal management. Markets now question whether the government can effectively address the budget deficit and curb debt accumulation without implementing stringent reforms.

Pressure on the pound is mounting from two key directions: deteriorating investor confidence in UK fiscal sustainability and a global bond market rout driven by rising debt burdens across major economies.

In the coming weeks, the government’s response to mounting criticism and upcoming budget announcements will be critical for the sterling. These statements will indicate whether policymakers are prepared to adjust their fiscal course.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 chart:

GBP/USD completed a downward wave towards the 1.3340 USD level. A corrective wave towards the breached support level of 1.3420 USD – now likely to act as resistance – may follow. Once this correction concludes, the pair could resume its decline, with initial support expected at 1.3340 USD, followed by a further drop towards 1.3283 USD, where another corrective wave may form. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where both the histogram and signal line remain below zero and continue trending downward.

H1 chart:

The pair tested the 1.3340 USD level and is forming a corrective wave. The pullback may target resistance at 1.3420 USD, where a rejection could trigger a resumption of the downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view: having failed to reach the 50.0 level, its signal lines are declining towards 20.0, indicating sustained bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Sterling faces intense pressure from both domestic fiscal concerns and global bond market dynamics. Technically, the pair remains in a downtrend, with any near-term corrections likely to be short-lived. The UK government’s upcoming fiscal announcements will be crucial in determining whether confidence can be restored or if further declines lie ahead.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Sep

Gold Near Record Highs Poised for a New Peak

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices extended their rally on Tuesday, reaching 3,490 USD per troy ounce, approaching an all-time high. The metal found support in growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September, along with a concurrent weakening of the US dollar.

Last week’s US inflation report bolstered hopes of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Markets are now pricing in an almost 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Officials from the central bank itself reinforced this view after Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, openly expressed her support for such a move.

The key event risk this week will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to define the scale and pace of the upcoming rate-cutting cycle.

US trade policy is also creating substantial uncertainty. An appeals court ruled that the majority of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump were illegal, but kept them in force until 14 October to allow for an appeal to the Supreme Court. This political uncertainty is further fuelling demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 chart:

The XAU/USD pair completed an upward wave towards the 3,508.65 USD level. The focus now shifts to a potential corrective wave towards the breached resistance level, which could now function as support. The target for this correction is 3,469 USD. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s supportive economic outlook, a test of this support could see prices stage another rally, with the first target likely being the 3,530 USD mark. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose histogram and signal line remain above zero and continue to rise, confirming the potential continuation of the upward trend. However, minor corrections cannot be ruled out.

H1 chart:

After testing the 3,500 USD level, the price is forming a corrective wave. The target for this pullback could be the support at 3,469 USD. Testing this level could pave the way for the resumption of the upward trend. This outlook is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal lines, after a period of increase, are now declining towards 50.0.

Conclusion

A combination of dovish Fed expectations, a softer dollar, and geopolitical trade uncertainties continues to support gold prices. The technical picture suggests a brief period of consolidation or a shallow pullback is likely before a potential retest of record highs.

Disclaimer:

Metals Opinions

02 Sep

Historical silver price: the metal hit a 14-year high. European indices are rising because of strong PMI figures

By JustMarkets

The US stocks were not traded yesterday due to the bank holiday (Labor Day).

The Mexico Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in August 2025, up from 49.1 in July. This was the first reading above the 50.0 threshold in 14 months, indicating an improvement in factory activity. On the other hand, business sentiment has significantly worsened compared to July, with companies becoming more cautious about their one-year outlook, despite some respondents expecting production volumes to grow.

European equity markets were primarily up on Monday. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.57%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.05%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.02%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.10%. On the first trading day of September, the DAX closed higher, ending a five-day losing streak, helped by defense and pharmaceutical stocks. Traders assessed a series of PMI indices and anticipated key economic releases this week, with Eurozone inflation data and the US Non-Farm Payrolls report in focus.

Domestically in Germany, the final manufacturing PMI came in at 49.8 in August, up from 49.1 in July and slightly below the flash estimate of 49.9, marking the best reading since mid-2022. Defense stocks were among the top gainers: Renk climbed 6.8%, Hensoldt added 5%, and Rheinmetall jumped 3.5% after the UK secured a £10 billion warship deal with Norway, the largest naval export in history. The stock rally was further boosted by comments from EU President von der Leyen about deploying troops to Ukraine as part of future security commitments.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG/USD) traded at around $40.7 per ounce (a 14-year high) after rising more than 2% in the previous session. Markets are pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut later this month. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated on Friday that the Central Bank is prepared to ease policy given risks to the labor market, while suggesting that tariff-driven inflation might be temporary. Demand for safe-haven assets also supported precious metals amid concerns about the Fed’s independence and renewed uncertainty tied to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. In the industrial sector, demand was supported by China’s solar energy boom, with solar panel exports growing by over 70% in the first half of the year, driven mainly by strong shipments to India.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $64 per barrel on Monday, recovering from earlier losses amid concerns about supply disruptions caused by the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy promised on Sunday to expand strikes deeper into Russian territory following drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities. Traders are also assessing whether India will yield to US pressure and halt purchases of Russian oil after Washington imposed secondary tariffs against Delhi last week. Investors are also awaiting this week’s OPEC+ meeting, as the group’s accelerated production increases are raising the global supply outlook.

In early September, the US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices climbed above the $3 per MMBtu mark, continuing a rally from a nine-month low of $2.73 on August 20, amid expectations of reduced domestic supply. New data showed that Russia’s LNG exports dropped by more than 6% year-on-year through August, which is increasing the share of US LNG in global trade as European and Asian partners source energy elsewhere. Accordingly, US gas consumers face higher competition for smaller domestic stockpiles. According to the latest data, gas storage inventories remain tight, with EIA data showing a 3.4% year-on-year decrease.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.24%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 2.15%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.51%.

On Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar fell to around $0.589. Sentiment worsened due to uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, as recent court rulings heightened concerns and caution regarding export-dependent currencies. Domestically, attention is focused on the upcoming appointment of a new RBNZ head, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon indicating that a decision could be made within weeks. At the same time, markets continue to assess the likelihood of further monetary policy easing after the Central Bank’s recent rate cut and its signal that additional measures may be needed to protect the economy from global and domestic headwinds.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,460.26 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,544.88 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 24,037.33 +135.12 (+0.57%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,196.34 +9.00 (+0.10%)

USD Index 97.67 -0.11 (-0.11%)

News feed for: 2025.09.02

Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

01 Sep

EUR/USD Gains Ground Amid Fresh Doubts Over the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1704 on Monday. The US dollar is trading near one-month lows as the market awaits a series of US labour market reports. These figures could influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.

The key event will be Friday’s August employment report, alongside data on the unemployment rate, job openings, and private sector employment.

Investors continue to assess Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. It confirmed rising prices and heightened uncertainty regarding the pace of future interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, the market is pricing in an approximately 88% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut this month.

On the trade front, a federal appeals court ruled that the majority of former President Donald Trump’s retaliatory tariffs were unlawful, giving the administration until 14 October to appeal to the US Supreme Court.

Trading activity at the start of the week is expected to be subdued due to the US market closure for the Labor Day holiday.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an upward wave towards the upper boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1736. A breakout above this resistance level could signal the start of a new upward trend. However, a pullback within a corrective wave is possible, which would see the breached resistance level retested as new support. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose histogram and signal line are above zero and continue to rise. This momentum suggests the upward trend is likely to persist towards the 1.1780 level, with potential corrections along the way.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a correction as it tests the resistance level. A breakout above this resistance would indicate a resumption of the upward wave. The signal line of the Stochastic oscillator is crossing above the 80 level, signalling a potential short-term correction before the upward trend potentially continues.

Conclusion

The pair is benefiting from a weaker dollar as market participants reassess the Fed’s policy trajectory. All attention is now on the upcoming US labour market data, which will be crucial for determining the pair’s short-term direction. Technically, the outlook remains bullish, with a break above key resistance needed to confirm further gains.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Sep

PCE inflation in the US pressured indices. Silver reached a 14-year high

By JustMarkets

The US stocks finished Friday lower. The Dow Jones (US30) Index fell by 0.20% for the day and 0.13% for the week. The S&P 500 (US500) dropped 0.64% for the day and rose 0.04% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed down 1.22% for the day and 0.17% for the week. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 2.9% year-over-year in July, matching expectations but marking its fastest pace since February. Technology and AI-related stocks pressured the market: Nvidia fell by 3.4% and Dell plummeted by 8.9% amid competition and rising costs for AI products. Alibaba surged 12.9% on strong cloud results, while Caterpillar (-3.6%) and Marvell (-18.6%) declined on tariff and earnings concerns. The US stock market will be closed on Monday, September 1, for the Labor Day holiday.

The Canadian dollar traded near 1.38 per US dollar after data on Canada’s second-quarter economic growth significantly undermined recovery assumptions and raised the risk of a Bank of Canada policy easing. Statistics Canada reported that real GDP in Q2 fell by 0.4% from the previous quarter, as exports contracted by 7.5% due to the impact of US tariffs. The growth gap with the US widened after the BEA’s second estimate showed US Q2 GDP at 3.3% year-over-year, which amplified expectations that the Canadian rate would have to fall sooner/further compared to the Fed and diminished support for the Canadian dollar, even amid a mixed Dollar Index following the PCE data.

European stock markets were mostly lower on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.57% for the day (-1.36% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.76% (-3.01% for the week), Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) dropped 0.90% (-2.51% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.32% (-1.31% for the week). The DAX in Frankfurt hit its lowest level since August 5, extending losses for a fifth consecutive session. Investors turned more cautious ahead of the weekend, considering political instability in France and rising geopolitical tensions from clashes in Gaza and Ukraine. Meanwhile, inflation data in Europe pointed to limited price pressures. Domestically, Germany’s inflation rate rose to 2.2% in August from 2.0% in July, exceeding market expectations of 2.1% but remaining near the ECB’s 2% target.

Silver surpassed $39.5 per ounce, reaching its highest level since September 2011, as traders bet on a Fed rate cut and weighed high industrial demand. The US data showed that core PCE inflation rose to 2.9% year-over-year in July, its fastest pace since February, and consumer spending jumped the most in four months, signaling a strengthening economy. The data maintained expectations for a September rate cut, with Fed Chair Waller supporting a 25 basis point cut and further easing in the coming months. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, despite volatile inflation. Industrially, silver demand was supported by China’s solar energy boom, with solar cell exports growing more than 70% in the first half of the year, led by strong demand from India.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.9% to reach $64 per barrel on Friday as traders factored in weakening US demand. Attention is also on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, as the group’s accelerated output increase boosts the global supply expectations. However, this supply increase has not fully reached the US market yet, where the summer driving season is ending, fueling concerns about demand.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.26%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 2.07%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 0.79%.

The official China Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 rose to 49.4 from July’s three-month low of 49.3, marking the fifth consecutive month of declining factory activity and falling short of market estimates of 49.5. Employment levels remained low (47.9 vs. 48.0) due to job uncertainty. On the price front, input costs reached a high since October 2024, while the decline in output prices eased. China’s official Non-Manufacturing PMI for August 2025 increased to 50.3 from July’s eight-month low of 50.1, matching market expectations and signaling moderate growth in service sector activity. The rise occurred amid improved sentiment, helped by a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff truce, which maintained 30% tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and 10% on US goods to China. Looking ahead, business confidence rose to a five-month high (56.2 vs. 55.8), fueled by hopes for policy support and trade stability.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,460.26 −41.60 (−0.64%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,544.88 −92.02 (−0.20%)

DAX (DE40) 23,902.21 −137.71 (−0.57%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,187.34 −29.48 (−0.32%)

USD Index 97.86 +0.04 (+0.04%)

News feed for: 2025.09.01

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
China Caxin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
Mexico Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

31 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 1-Year High, Euro & Yen Bets advance

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, Mexican Peso & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (6,903 contracts), the Mexican Peso (4,473 contracts), the EuroFX (4,294 contracts), Bitcoin (828 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (300 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,936 contracts) with the British Pound (-6,168 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,703 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,035 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,494 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-117 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Bets rise to over 1-Year High, Euro & Yen Bets advance

Highlighting this week’s currency COT data is the Mexican Peso speculator positions that have risen for 2 straight weeks and in 5 out of the past 6 weeks. Overall, the Mexican Peso’s speculative positions have been in a continuous bullish position for 31 consecutive weeks as it has only had one bearish week (January 21, 2025 at -1,544 contracts) out of the last 129 weeks, dating back to March of 2023.

The current Peso standing is now at +68,998 net contracts, which marks the highest level in over a year, dating back to July 30th of 2024. The Peso’s speculative strength score is at a modest 64% of its 3-year range with a 6-week increase in strength (trend score) by 9.6% – indicating a strong bullish sentiment but not near extreme.

In the exchange rate market, the Peso has continued to rise steadily against the U.S. Dollar with a recent break above its 200-week moving average. The Peso is now up by approximately 12% on the year versus the U.S. Dollar with the futures price closing at 0.0535 this week.

More Currency Positioning:

Japanese Yen speculator bets this week rose by almost +7,000 contracts and were higher for a second consecutive week. Prior to these latest 2 weeks, the Japanese Yen bets had fallen for 3 straight weeks and for 6 out of the previous 7 weeks. From March 4th all the way to July 22nd, the Japanese Yen speculator bets were extremely bullish and above the +100,000 net contract level for a stretch of 21 consecutive weeks including new all-time record highs in April. Currently, the Japanese Yen speculator positions are still highly bullish but have fallen out of the +100,000 contract range, with this week’s standing at +84,484 net contracts.

The Euro positions rose again this week for a second straight week after seeing declines in the previous 4 weeks. This week’s increase has pushed the net position to a 4-week high of +123,039 net contracts. The Euro positioning has been highly bullish with 11 consecutive weeks of speculator positions above +100,000 contracts. Overall, the euro positioning has been in a bullish standing for 25 consecutive weeks after seeing its last bearish level on March 4th of this year. The Euro price versus the US dollar in the forex markets has been on a strong run this year as well, with gains of approximately 14% against the USD over 2025. The euro started the year around the 1.0335 level and ended this week at the 1.1710 exchange rate.

The Canadian dollar speculator positions dropped by over -11,000 contracts this week and have fallen for 5 consecutive weeks The CAD positions have now declined in 8 out of the last 9 weeks as well, with a 9-week period decline of -51,848 contracts. The Canadian dollar speculator standing sits right now at -105,015 contracts, the lowest level since June 2021. Overall, the Canadian dollar speculator position has been in a bearish level since August of 2023, a span of 108 weeks. Despite the speculator weakness for the Canadian dollar, the CAD exchange rate has been up approximately 5% against the US dollar since the beginning of 2025.

The US dollar index saw a small decline this week in speculator positions. The US dollar index overall positioning has now been negative for 11 consecutive weeks. In the currency market, the US dollar index is now down since the beginning of 2025 by just about 11%, with the dollar index trading at 97.69 to close out the week.

Finally, the Australian dollar speculative position fell for a fourth straight week this week and has been down 7 out of the last 10 weeks. This week’s decline brings the overall speculative standing to -100,590 net contracts. This is the first -100,000 contract level for the AUD since April of 2024. The speculator contract level has now been in bearish territory for 37 consecutive weeks, with a 3-year strength score showing just 4.9% – illustrating the Australian dollar’s current level is near the bottom of its 3-year range. Despite the weak speculative sentiment, the Australian dollar exchange rate has been higher by almost 6.5% this year against the US dollar, with the currency ending the week at a 0.6547 exchange.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) lead price gains this week

The currency market price performance on the week was led by the commodity currencies. First, the Australian Dollar rose by 0.87%, followed closely by the Canadian Dollar with a 0.70% rise, and the New Zealand Dollar, which advanced by 0.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index was up marginally by 0.15%, followed by the Swiss franc which had a small gain of 0.14%. The Japanese yen was virtually unchanged on the week.

The British Pound Sterling was also virtually unchanged with a -0.03% decline, followed by the Brazilian Real, which was a tad bit lower by -0.05%. The Euro fell by -0.19%, and the Mexican Peso was lower by -0.39%. The biggest loss on the week was had by Bitcoin, with a -7.22% decline for the last five days.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the Japanese Yen (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (68 percent), Mexican Peso (64 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the Australian Dollar (5 percent) and the British Pound (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.4 percent)
EuroFX (75.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (17.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (20.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (72.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (46.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (42.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (48.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (9.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (57.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.2 percent)
Bitcoin (44.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (27.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (45 percent) and the Mexican Peso (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-18 percent), Canadian Dollar (-14 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.6 percent)
EuroFX (-2.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-28.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-27.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-5.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-10.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-10.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-10.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-18.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (9.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (3.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.1 percent)
Bitcoin (44.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (26.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	39.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.2	19.6	10.3
– Net Position:	-6,105	6,163	-58
– Gross Longs:	13,158	12,326	3,192
– Gross Shorts:	19,263	6,163	3,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	98.7	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	3.9	9.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 123,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 118,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	54.8	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.3	5.3
– Net Position:	123,039	-173,206	50,167
– Gross Longs:	258,386	461,163	95,096
– Gross Shorts:	135,347	634,369	44,929
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	22.2	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	3.8	-12.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	49.6	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	37.8	12.2
– Net Position:	-31,353	25,962	5,391
– Gross Longs:	76,001	108,993	32,163
– Gross Shorts:	107,354	83,031	26,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	74.6	73.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	26.3	-6.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 84,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.8	39.0	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	64.2	9.4
– Net Position:	84,484	-90,150	5,666
– Gross Longs:	170,765	139,358	39,284
– Gross Shorts:	86,281	229,508	33,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	28.2	57.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.2	-3.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	75.1	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	33.2	24.2
– Net Position:	-26,978	33,052	-6,074
– Gross Longs:	6,659	59,259	13,011
– Gross Shorts:	33,637	26,207	19,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	53.4	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	16.3	-24.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -105,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	74.3	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	26.5	12.8
– Net Position:	-105,015	108,560	-3,545
– Gross Longs:	20,397	168,866	25,465
– Gross Shorts:	125,412	60,306	29,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.6	58.1	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	15.8	-13.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -100,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	70.7	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	67.6	17.8	11.5
– Net Position:	-100,590	101,285	-695
– Gross Longs:	28,700	135,250	21,247
– Gross Shorts:	129,290	33,965	21,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	90.3	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.2	17.1	-8.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	53.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	38.5	10.6
– Net Position:	-6,105	7,911	-1,806
– Gross Longs:	17,143	28,377	3,839
– Gross Shorts:	23,248	20,466	5,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	43.0	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	13.4	-27.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 68,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	35.9	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	79.3	2.3
– Net Position:	68,998	-71,814	2,816
– Gross Longs:	97,158	59,405	6,642
– Gross Shorts:	28,160	131,219	3,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	37.3	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-8.0	-18.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,494 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	43.6	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	68.2	0.9
– Net Position:	28,916	-32,549	3,633
– Gross Longs:	64,875	57,495	4,767
– Gross Shorts:	35,959	90,044	1,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	30.5	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.6	-1.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.9	4.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.3	3.5	4.7
– Net Position:	-372	280	92
– Gross Longs:	22,793	1,235	1,382
– Gross Shorts:	23,165	955	1,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	62.8	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.8	-36.7	-24.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Aug

Speculator Extremes: EAFE, Nasdaq, FedFunds & WTI Crude lead Bullish & Bearish Bets

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 26th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position once again comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level has advanced to a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise of 20 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 14,698 net contracts this week with a boost by 9,259 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in second this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq-Mini speculator level resides at a 91 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a small gain of 2 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 36,082 net contracts this week with an addition of 2,237 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes up number three in the extreme standings this week with the Lean Hogs speculator level sitting at an 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a decrease of -5 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 76,068 net contracts this week with a rise of 6,359 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a gain of 2 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 106,277 net contracts this week with an edge higher of 136 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra Long T-Bond speculator level sits at a 78 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -8 percentage points.

The speculator position was -248,945 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,783 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Fed Funds

The Fed Funds speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week with the FedFunds speculator level sitting at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -70 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -393,823 net contracts this week with a drop of -76,769 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position also comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the WTI Crude speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -22 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 109,472 net contracts this week with a reduction by -10,737 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -74,738 net contracts this week with a change of -4,445 contracts in the speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The USD Index speculator level is now at a 2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decrease by -6 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -6,105 net contracts this week with a slide by -117 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Next, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small gain of 2 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,463,971 net contracts this week with an advance of 44,412 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

30 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Steel & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Steel & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (1,721 contracts), Steel (741 contracts), Platinum (736 contracts) and Copper (198 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-407 contracts) and Silver (-83 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Price Changes led by Gold & Silver

Metals markets price performance this week was led by Gold and Silver, which were higher by just about the same percent of 2.40%. Copper came in next with a 1.30% gain on the week while Platinum was higher by 1.14%.

Palladium was lower this week by -1.52%, followed by Steel, which saw the biggest loss on the week by -4.70%.

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (74 percent) and Palladium (73 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.0 percent)
Silver (74.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (74.2 percent)
Copper (57.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.5 percent)
Platinum (53.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.5 percent)
Palladium (73.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (61.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.4 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (0.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals Gold was the only positive mover in the latest trends data and highlights the cool-off in sentiment for the metals market currently.

Silver (-16 percent), Copper (-13 percent) and Platinum (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.7 percent)
Silver (-16.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.0 percent)
Copper (-13.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-12.6 percent)
Platinum (-8.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.5 percent)
Palladium (-4.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.5 percent)
Steel (-2.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 214,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 212,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.1	16.4	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	73.0	4.5
– Net Position:	214,311	-250,965	36,654
– Gross Longs:	275,767	72,908	56,712
– Gross Shorts:	61,456	323,873	20,058
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	32.0	96.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.1	-3.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -83 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.0	29.1	20.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	72.1	6.8
– Net Position:	46,466	-68,285	21,819
– Gross Longs:	68,227	46,134	32,659
– Gross Shorts:	21,761	114,419	10,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	19.4	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	12.5	7.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	34.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	53.3	4.6
– Net Position:	26,230	-34,994	8,764
– Gross Longs:	56,762	66,222	17,555
– Gross Shorts:	30,532	101,216	8,791
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	40.3	70.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.5	6.1	45.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.6	19.3	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	44.4	5.0
– Net Position:	15,786	-21,441	5,655
– Gross Longs:	49,314	16,518	9,976
– Gross Shorts:	33,528	37,959	4,321
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	44.9	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.3	3.2	24.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	34.6	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.2	25.0	6.3
– Net Position:	-4,141	1,823	2,318
– Gross Longs:	7,433	6,552	3,505
– Gross Shorts:	11,574	4,729	1,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	11.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	-4.4	39.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	76.3	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	77.3	1.2
– Net Position:	83	-235	152
– Gross Longs:	4,544	18,488	431
– Gross Shorts:	4,461	18,723	279
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	39.2	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	3.3	-9.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

30 Aug

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months, 2-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (83,284 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (61,687 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,457 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (44,412 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,030 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (10,479 contracts) also showing positive weekly position changes.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-76,769 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-11,568 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,783 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bonds lead price gains for the week

The bond markets price performance this week saw the 10-Year Note edge up by 0.40% to lead the bonds over the last 5 days. Next was the 5-Year Bond, which rose by 0.38% on the week. The Fed Funds was up by 0.23%, the 2-Year Bond was up by 0.16%, while the 3-month secured overnight financing rate was up by 0.11%. On the downside, the 1-month secured overnight financing rate was lower by a minuscule -0.01%, while the long U.S. Treasury bond was down by -0.52% on the week.

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (78 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Fed Funds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (0.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (12.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (65.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (77.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (80.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (62.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (65.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (45.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (41.3 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (33 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-70 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-70.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-54.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-4.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (32.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-7.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (30.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (33.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (14.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -393,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -76,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -317,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	70.8	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	55.3	1.6
– Net Position:	-393,823	387,741	6,082
– Gross Longs:	234,998	1,768,689	46,345
– Gross Shorts:	628,821	1,380,948	40,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-70.1	72.4	0.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -284,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 83,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	53.9	0.3
– Net Position:	-284,862	284,938	-76
– Gross Longs:	1,879,823	7,177,125	35,672
– Gross Shorts:	2,164,685	6,892,187	35,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	54.3	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-8.2	-21.8

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,930 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	59.8	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	58.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-24,498	23,079	1,419
– Gross Longs:	333,133	1,050,557	2,063
– Gross Shorts:	357,631	1,027,478	644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	37.2	69.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-30.1	-4.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,263,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 61,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,324,539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	77.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	52.9	3.3
– Net Position:	-1,263,082	1,103,308	159,774
– Gross Longs:	502,153	3,487,542	307,308
– Gross Shorts:	1,765,235	2,384,234	147,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	75.4	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-7.6	10.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,463,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 44,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,508,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	51.5	4.0
– Net Position:	-2,463,971	2,276,169	187,802
– Gross Longs:	483,232	6,128,955	488,889
– Gross Shorts:	2,947,203	3,852,786	301,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	95.8	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-3.8	6.6

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -883,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -945,516 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	76.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	63.6	6.2
– Net Position:	-883,829	729,027	154,802
– Gross Longs:	508,552	4,316,228	503,746
– Gross Shorts:	1,392,381	3,587,201	348,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	63.2	91.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	6.0	22.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -328,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	72.7	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	58.8	11.6
– Net Position:	-328,671	375,957	-47,286
– Gross Longs:	310,448	1,972,725	266,499
– Gross Shorts:	639,119	1,596,768	313,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	74.9	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-18.2	15.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,030 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	78.7	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	81.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-36,013	-72,481	108,494
– Gross Longs:	158,716	1,767,293	255,791
– Gross Shorts:	194,729	1,839,774	147,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	17.9	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.7	-36.7	31.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -248,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -242,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	81.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	69.8	8.7
– Net Position:	-248,945	250,719	-1,774
– Gross Longs:	132,974	1,797,826	191,259
– Gross Shorts:	381,919	1,547,107	193,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.8	38.1	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	4.6	8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

30 Aug

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (34,270 contracts) with Soybean Meal (15,232 contracts), Wheat (14,836 contracts), Lean Hogs (6,359 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,303 contracts), Coffee (2,614 contracts) and Live Cattle (136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-4,445 contracts), Cocoa (-4,033 contracts), Cotton (-2,501 contracts) and with Soybeans (-1,557 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Coffee leads price gains on the week

The soft commodities price performance this week was led for a second straight week by Coffee, which rose by over 6% in the last 5 days. Lean Hogs was next with a gain by over 5.5%. Soybean Meal rose by 2.27%, followed by Live Cattle, which rose by approximately 2%. Corn was up by 1.56%, and Wheat was also higher by 1.42%.

Soybeans was virtually unchanged with a -0.04%, edging lower this week. Sugar fell by -0.73%. Cotton was down by -1.28%, followed by Cocoa, which saw a -2.70% decline. And finally, Soybean Oil was the lowest on the week with a decrease by -3.03%.

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (85 percent) and Live Cattle (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (73 percent), Coffee (56 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (1 percent), Cotton (15 percent) and Cocoa (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.9 percent)
Sugar (0.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.9 percent)
Coffee (56.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (53.7 percent)
Soybeans (55.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (72.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (69.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.7 percent)
Live Cattle (82.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (79.9 percent)
Cotton (14.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.4 percent)
Cocoa (18.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (22.2 percent)
Wheat (31.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.8 percent)

Soybean Meal & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (18 percent) and Corn (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (2 percent) and Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cotton (-8 percent), Sugar (-6 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (5.0 percent)
Sugar (-6.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.8 percent)
Coffee (0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (17.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (1.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.0 percent)
Cotton (-7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.6 percent)
Wheat (-10.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -70,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,270 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.0	40.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-70,940	93,769	-22,829
– Gross Longs:	337,007	675,979	135,440
– Gross Shorts:	407,947	582,210	158,269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.6	71.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.6	5.8

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -74,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	45.4	7.9
– Net Position:	-74,738	75,802	-1,064
– Gross Longs:	190,535	491,865	71,165
– Gross Shorts:	265,273	416,063	72,229
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	96.8	19.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	2.4	16.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	38.2	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	59.0	3.8
– Net Position:	31,274	-33,581	2,307
– Gross Longs:	55,237	61,582	8,434
– Gross Shorts:	23,963	95,163	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	44.9	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-1.5	24.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 18,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	56.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	56.2	7.8
– Net Position:	18,189	-643	-17,546
– Gross Longs:	153,775	483,561	49,348
– Gross Shorts:	135,586	484,204	66,894
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	43.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.7	-0.2	-6.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.6	43.5	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	54.0	4.3
– Net Position:	55,510	-63,636	8,126
– Gross Longs:	142,575	262,931	34,031
– Gross Shorts:	87,065	326,567	25,905
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	29.2	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	6.6	-21.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	52.4	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	49.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-32,896	18,769	14,127
– Gross Longs:	108,956	312,972	48,413
– Gross Shorts:	141,852	294,203	34,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.4	82.5	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.8	-14.2	-54.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 106,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.5	28.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	50.6	12.8
– Net Position:	106,277	-85,211	-21,066
– Gross Longs:	189,758	112,784	28,909
– Gross Shorts:	83,481	197,995	49,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	18.5	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-4.1	5.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.5	27.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	48.4	7.3
– Net Position:	76,068	-71,664	-4,404
– Gross Longs:	152,263	93,942	20,718
– Gross Shorts:	76,195	165,606	25,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	14.2	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.3	8.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -37,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	48.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	32.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-37,606	37,534	72
– Gross Longs:	67,460	116,539	12,245
– Gross Shorts:	105,066	79,005	12,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.9	86.2	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	-1.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	45.8	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	58.9	8.1
– Net Position:	7,996	-11,793	3,797
– Gross Longs:	24,532	41,060	11,033
– Gross Shorts:	16,536	52,853	7,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	81.9	57.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	4.3	-4.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	20.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-78,782	78,683	99
– Gross Longs:	127,585	171,579	33,536
– Gross Shorts:	206,367	92,896	33,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	69.4	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	6.9	33.3

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