InvestMacro

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by Heating Oil & Brent Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Heating Oil & Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Heating Oil (6,479 contracts) with Brent Oil (6,278 contracts), Gasoline (1,964 contracts) and Natural Gas (1,170 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were WTI Crude (-7,044 contracts) and the Bloomberg Index (-288 contracts) which saw lower bets on the week.

Natural Gas led Energy Price Performance

Energy market performance this week was led by Natural Gas, which saw a 2.94% gain on the week. Despite that, Natural Gas is down by -6.64% over the last 30 days and is lower by -22.14% over the last 90 days.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest mover with a 0.64% gain on the week. Heating Oil also saw a tiny gain this week with a 0.04% increase. Heating Oil has been up by 13.75% over the last 90 days.

On the downside, Gasoline fell by -0.58% this week. Gasoline has been higher by 3.44% over the last 30 days and up by 7.92% over the last 90 days. Brent Oil fell by -2.92% over the last five days. Brent Oil has been higher by almost 8% over the last 90 days.

And finally, WTI Crude Oil was down by -3.47% this week, but has been up by 7.19% over the last 90 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil & Natural Gas

On the downside, WTI Crude (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (40.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (31.4 percent)
Natural Gas (60.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (59.1 percent)
Gasoline (41.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (38.5 percent)
Heating Oil (83.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (47.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (48.3 percent)

Heating Oil & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Heating Oil (12 percent) and Gasoline (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

WTI Crude Oil (-21 percent), Natural Gas (-19 percent) and Brent Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-20.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-21.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-16.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-38.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-19.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-23.0 percent)
Gasoline (9.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-6.9 percent)
Heating Oil (11.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-8.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-6.4 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude vs Oil ETF

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	41.2	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	47.3	2.5
– Net Position:	102,428	-121,395	18,967
– Gross Longs:	293,055	819,102	67,712
– Gross Shorts:	190,627	940,497	48,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	23.2	-19.8

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT Chart

Brent vs Oil ETF

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -28,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	45.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	31.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-28,642	28,295	347
– Gross Longs:	38,506	92,395	6,853
– Gross Shorts:	67,148	64,100	6,506
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.3	62.5	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	18.6	-4.4

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas vs ETF

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -102,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,170 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	30.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	25.4	2.5
– Net Position:	-102,776	89,212	13,564
– Gross Longs:	284,272	504,792	55,175
– Gross Shorts:	387,048	415,580	41,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	43.1	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	23.5	-13.1

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

Gasoline vs ETF

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.1	49.1	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	64.4	5.1
– Net Position:	41,306	-48,980	7,674
– Gross Longs:	83,524	157,003	24,129
– Gross Shorts:	42,218	205,983	16,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.3	66.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-10.7	13.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT Chart

Heating Oil vs ETF

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,246 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	40.9	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	55.5	7.6
– Net Position:	30,246	-53,510	23,264
– Gross Longs:	64,603	149,076	51,122
– Gross Shorts:	34,357	202,586	27,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.3	15.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-5.6	-8.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index vs ETF

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,969 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	81.7	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	75.1	0.1
– Net Position:	-13,257	12,966	291
– Gross Longs:	26,750	160,982	406
– Gross Shorts:	40,007	148,016	115
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	52.7	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	8.1	0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn, Lean Hogs & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn, Lean Hogs & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (18,485 contracts) with Lean Hogs (7,272 contracts), Wheat (7,146 contracts), Live Cattle (3,958 contracts), Coffee (3,712 contracts) and Soybeans (3,231 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-21,568 contracts), Sugar (-11,067 contracts), Cotton (-10,606 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,127 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,299 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Weekly Price Gains

Leading the soft commodities gains this week was Cocoa, with a 9.3% rise for the last five days of trading. Cocoa has been up by almost 28% over the last 90 days.

Next up, Soybean Meal was up by 2.64% on the week. Soybean Meal, however, has been down by -3.5% over the last 30 days and is down by just -1.11% over the last 90 days.

Lean hogs came in third this week with a gain of 2.17%. Lean Hogs is up by 6.52% in the last 30 days and up by over 7% in the last 90 days.

Corn was the only other riser on the week, with a 1.56% gain. Despite this gain, Corn is down by -7.64% in the last 90 days.

On the downside, Soybean Oil saw a small decline by -0.43% this week. Cotton was down by -0.8% this week. Live cattle saw a decline by -1.53%, but has been up by 17.56% over the last 90 days.

Next up, Wheat was lower by -1.65%, and Soybeans were lower by -1.75%. Coffee saw a drop by -3.2% this week, and Sugar saw the biggest drop with a -4.82% decline. Sugar is now down by -10.36% over the last 90 days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (90 percent) and Live Cattle (87 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (67 percent), Coffee (60 percent) and Soybeans (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (8 percent), Soybean Meal (12 percent) and Cocoa (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (29.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.6 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (59.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.2 percent)
Soybeans (56.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (67.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (72.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (12.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.4 percent)
Live Cattle (86.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (82.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (90.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (84.7 percent)
Cotton (8.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (14.9 percent)
Cocoa (16.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (18.1 percent)
Wheat (37.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.8 percent)

Corn & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (11 percent) and Soybean Meal (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (6 percent), Coffee (4 percent) and Live Cattle (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-14 percent), Cotton (-13 percent) and Sugar (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.0 percent)
Sugar (-7.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Coffee (3.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.1 percent)
Soybeans (-3.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-16.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.8 percent)
Live Cattle (1.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-7.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-14.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-10.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	46.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.7	40.2	10.9
– Net Position:	-52,455	87,814	-35,359
– Gross Longs:	350,610	672,040	123,585
– Gross Shorts:	403,065	584,226	158,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.1	70.5	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-11.8	-4.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -85,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	53.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	44.3	7.8
– Net Position:	-85,805	88,575	-2,770
– Gross Longs:	184,300	505,407	70,352
– Gross Shorts:	270,105	416,832	73,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.8	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	3.9	13.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	38.4	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	60.4	3.9
– Net Position:	34,986	-37,500	2,514
– Gross Longs:	57,564	65,225	9,080
– Gross Shorts:	22,578	102,725	6,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	41.2	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-5.4	30.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,189 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	56.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	56.8	7.5
– Net Position:	21,420	-6,672	-14,748
– Gross Longs:	157,352	483,406	49,895
– Gross Shorts:	135,932	490,078	64,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	42.3	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	3.2	7.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	44.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	53.3	4.2
– Net Position:	46,383	-54,688	8,305
– Gross Longs:	134,545	268,814	33,950
– Gross Shorts:	88,162	323,502	25,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.5	33.7	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	18.1	-26.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -54,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	53.0	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	45.8	5.9
– Net Position:	-54,464	41,895	12,569
– Gross Longs:	108,170	308,856	47,190
– Gross Shorts:	162,634	266,961	34,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	91.4	14.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-4.1	-46.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 110,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.4	27.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	50.4	12.5
– Net Position:	110,235	-89,518	-20,717
– Gross Longs:	192,249	110,848	28,932
– Gross Shorts:	82,014	200,366	49,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.7	13.3	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-4.2	7.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,272 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	26.5	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	48.3	7.6
– Net Position:	83,340	-79,175	-4,165
– Gross Longs:	163,887	96,532	23,591
– Gross Shorts:	80,547	175,707	27,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.2	8.2	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-7.1	4.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -48,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	49.9	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	30.5	5.3
– Net Position:	-48,212	48,968	-756
– Gross Longs:	70,472	126,343	12,788
– Gross Shorts:	118,684	77,375	13,544
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.5	92.7	16.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.7	12.6	-7.8

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 6,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,299 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	47.0	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	58.7	8.0
– Net Position:	6,697	-10,548	3,851
– Gross Longs:	24,029	42,365	11,040
– Gross Shorts:	17,332	52,913	7,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.8	83.2	58.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	1.8	-1.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -71,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,782 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	37.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	20.5	7.6
– Net Position:	-71,636	71,701	-65
– Gross Longs:	126,625	159,079	32,467
– Gross Shorts:	198,261	87,378	32,532
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	63.1	53.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	10.3	37.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Sugar, VIX, 5-Yr Bond & WTI Crude lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 2nd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the MSCI EAFE-Mini speculator level currently at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a rise by 6 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 12,692 net contracts this week with a drop of -2,006 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week as the Lean Hogs speculator level is now at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a gain of 6 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 83,340 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 7,272 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 87 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a small gain by 1 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 110,235 net contracts this week with an advance by 3,958 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at an 85 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -6 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 55,923 net contracts this week with a positive change of 9,457 contracts in the speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings with the Heating Oil speculator level sitting at an 83 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a boost of 12 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 30,246 net contracts this week with a rise of 6,479 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in tied as the most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Sugar speculator level resides at a 0 percent score or at the bottom of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -85,805 net contracts this week with a change of -11,067 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes in also tied as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was big drop by -48 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -13,814 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week as the 5-Year speculator level is also at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -9 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -2,681,987 net contracts this week with a reduction by -218,016 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fourth market tied as this week’s most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21 percentage points this week. The speculator position was 102,428 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,044 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

US Dollar Index

Next, the US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The USD Index speculator level is at a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a fall of -4 percentage points this week. The speculator position was -5,021 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,084 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

05 Sep

Pound Steadies as Markets Await Key US Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair found stability on Friday, trading around 1.3453 as anxiety in the debt markets eased. Investor attention has shifted firmly to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls report, with softer US labour data reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end.

The latest ADP employment report showed the US economy added just 54,000 jobs in August, well below the forecast of 65,000 and July’s figure of 104,000. The dollar faced additional headwinds from a decline in job openings, which fell to their lowest level since September 2024, and a rise in unemployment claims to a two-month high.

Domestically, the pound remains sensitive to uncertainty surrounding the autumn budget, due in November. Market participants also noted remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who emphasised “significant uncertainty” regarding the timing of interest rate cuts in the UK.

Interest rate futures currently imply no further policy changes this year, with the first cut not fully priced in until April.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD has completed an upward wave to 1.3460. The pair may now extend this movement towards the resistance level at 1.3548. Following a corrective phase, a rebound from this resistance could trigger a new downward wave, with initial support expected at 1.3420 and further downside potential toward 1.3340. This view is supported by the MACD indicator: both the histogram and signal line remain below zero but are rising.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair tested 1.3460 and continues its corrective advance. The near-term upside target remains the 1.3548 resistance level. A rejection at this level could signal a resumption of the broader downtrend. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line hovering near 80.0 – indicating overbought conditions and a potential reversal.

Conclusion

The pound has paused its decline amid calmer debt markets and a weaker dollar, though domestic fiscal and monetary uncertainties linger. Technically, the pair shows potential for limited near-term gains followed by a bearish reversal. All eyes now turn to the US NFP report for clearer directional cues.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Sep

Trump is reducing tariffs on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15%. Oil inventories continue to rise, slowing demand

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, US stocks rose as investors evaluated fresh labor market data and increased bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month. The Dow Jones (US30) climbed 0.77%, the S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.83%, and the Nasdaq (US100) was up 0.98%. New data showed that private sector jobs in August increased by only 54,000, which was significantly below expectations. Additionally, jobless claims rose to their highest level since June, signaling a cooling labor market. Traders interpreted this slowdown as a catalyst for a September rate cut, with federal fund futures pricing in a more than 95% chance of a reduction.

Corporate earnings also influenced market momentum. Amazon shares jumped 4.3% on optimism about the company’s AI connections, Meta added 1.6%, and Broadcom rose by 1.2% ahead of its results. However, Salesforce dropped 5.1% following a weak prognosis.

The Mexican peso (MXN) weakened to around 18.75 per US dollar, a two-week low, due to a stronger US dollar and weaker domestic flows. The outlook on Banxico’s (Mexico’s Central Bank) policy appears increasingly gradual. Unemployment rose to 2.8% in July from 2.7% in June, a moderate increase that is cooling consumption and strengthening the case for further monetary easing. The Central Bank started a moderate easing cycle by cutting its rate by 25 basis points to 7.75%, signaling a slow, data-dependent path for reductions, which lessens the appeal of interest-rate carry trades.

European stock markets were mostly higher on Thursday, with the German DAX (DE40) up 0.74%, the Spanish IBEX35 (ES35) gaining 0.87%, and the UK FTSE 100 (UK100) closing 0.42% higher. The French CAC 40 (FR40), however, closed down 0.27%. European equities closed with solid gains on a drop in long-term bond yields and easing concerns about rising borrowing costs.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $63.5 per barrel on Thursday, extending a 2.5% drop from the previous session. Supply concerns were heightened by an unexpected increase in US inventories. US commercial crude oil stocks rose by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 29, significantly exceeding expectations. This signals slowing current demand and inflated stockpiles, confirming data from the API (American Petroleum Institute). Meanwhile, OPEC+ is poised to increase production further, with talks underway for additional cuts to output and increased supply in October, which would exacerbate an already saturated market.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.53%, while the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 1.24%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) dropped 1.12%. The Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result, up 1.00%.

Japan: According to an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on Thursday, the United States will cut tariffs on imported Japanese automobiles to 15% by the end of the month. This move formalizes a trade agreement between Washington and Tokyo announced in July, easing months of negotiations and reducing uncertainty for the Japanese automotive sector. The 15% cap will also apply to most other Japanese imports under the agreement. The deal also confirms Japan’s commitment to invest $550 billion in US projects. The tariff cuts will take effect seven days after the order is published, with some benefits retroactive to August 7.

Australia: Strong economic data this week led investors to lower expectations for further RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) policy easing. Markets are now pricing in an 80% chance of a 0.25% rate cut in November, down from 100% at the start of the week. Economists note that rising household consumption and improving sentiment are supporting the Australian dollar, while robust consumer spending and a stable labor market could limit further rate cuts.

New Zealand: Expectations of further monetary policy easing by the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) continued to cap the New Zealand dollar’s rise. Markets are pricing in a rate cut at the Central Bank’s next meeting in October, with rates projected to fall to around 2.50% by early next year. The currency has been on the defensive since the RBNZ lowered its official cash rate to 3.0% last month and signaled that further cuts may be needed to stimulate a sluggish economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,502.08 +53.82 (+0.83%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,621.29 +350.06 (+0.77%)

DAX (DE40) 23,770.33 +175.53 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,216.87 +38.88 (+0.42%)

USD Index 98.29 −0.15 (−0.15%)

News feed for: 2025.09.05

UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

04 Sep

OPEC+ considers a production increase. The Bank of Japan is still ready to continue raising interest rates

By JustMarkets

By the end of Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.05%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.51%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed higher by 1.02%. Wall Street finished mixed on Wednesday as tech gains offset broader market weakness, with investors weighing a favorable antitrust ruling for Google and signs of a cooling labor market. Alphabet shares surged 9.1% after a court allowed the company to maintain Chrome and its lucrative search deal with Apple, easing fears of a forced breakup. Apple shares rose by 3.8%, helping to bolster confidence in the resilience of large technology companies despite regulatory pressures. In contrast, the Dow dropped 24 points as weakness in the financial and energy sectors countered tech-sector gains. On the data front, the JOLTS report showed job openings fell to their lowest level since September, and factory orders contracted by 1.3%.

European stock markets were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was up 0.46%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed with a gain of 0.86%, Spain’s IBEX35 (ES35) gained 0.58%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.67%. The Eurozone’s HCOB Composite Business Activity Index rose to 51 in August 2025 from 50.9 the previous month, which was slightly below the preliminary estimate of 51.1 but beat initial market expectations of 50.7. The total volume of new orders increased for the first time in 15 months, despite a contraction in new export orders. The signal of renewed demand for production capacity led companies to increase staff to the highest level in 14 months. Meanwhile, input cost inflation accelerated to a five-month high, which subsequently led to a rise in output prices. Despite the stronger headline figures, overall business confidence remained unchanged during the period amid concerns about US tariffs and economic issues within the Eurozone.

WTI crude oil prices fell below $64 per barrel on Wednesday, retreating from a four-week high of $65.7 reached earlier in the session, on renewed signs of a supply increase. Reports indicate that the OPEC+ group is considering an increase in oil production at its meeting this coming weekend, surprising markets that had largely expected production levels to be maintained. Such a decision would extend the cartel’s series of production increases this year, despite expectations of slowing fuel demand, as major producers and exporters prioritize regaining market share and boosting their budget revenues from energy sales.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.88%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.96%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.60%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a negative result of 1.82%. Hong Kong stocks dropped nearly 1.0% on Thursday morning, marking their third consecutive decline amid widespread losses in the sector. Sentiment became increasingly cautious as traders continued to assess financial difficulties in major economies. The Hang Seng Index also followed mainland Chinese stocks, which extended their slide for a third straight session after reports that regulators are preparing measures to cool down Chinese markets.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan remains ready to continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices develop in line with expectations. His statement followed a meeting with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the first since February, as part of a regular exchange of views on the economy and markets. The Central Bank concluded a decade-long stimulus program last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5% in January, confident that Japan was approaching its 2% inflation target. However, political uncertainty could complicate the outlook, as Ishiba is under pressure and may resign after the LDP’s defeat in the upper house elections in July.

Indonesia’s Central Bank agreed to a “burden-sharing” arrangement with the government, under which it will raise interest rates on government deposits to help fund state programs. This arrangement is designed to support the government’s efforts to raise funds through the bond market for initiatives like building affordable housing and creating village-level cooperatives. Additionally, BI acquired IDR 200 trillion (US$12.3 billion) in government bonds on the secondary market, including IDR 150 trillion through a debt swap with the government.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,448.26 +32.72 (+0.51%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,271.23 −24.58 (−0.054%)

DAX (DE40) 23,594.80 +107.47 (+0.46%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,177.99 +61.30 (+0.67%)

USD Index 98.15 −0.25 (−0.25%)

News feed for: 2025.09.04

Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

04 Sep

USD/JPY in Equilibrium as Volatility Rises

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair held steady on Thursday, trading around 148.13 as the yen modestly recovered from the losses incurred in the previous session. The US dollar came under pressure following the release of softer US labour market data, which bolstered expectations of an impending Federal Reserve rate cut.

Domestically, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Wednesday the central bank’s commitment to a gradual pace of rate hikes, contingent on economic growth and inflation aligning with its projections.

Market participants now await further direction from the latest wage statistics, due for release on Friday.

Meanwhile, political uncertainty continues to weigh on the Japanese currency. The pair briefly touched a one-month low yesterday amid news that Hiroshi Moriyama, the ruling party’s secretary-general and a key ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, had resigned. Speculation has since intensified that Ishiba himself may step down. Among the potential successors is Sanae Takaichi, a noted proponent of maintaining ultra-low interest rates, a factor likely to keep the yen under pressure.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to develop a corrective wave within a defined ascending channel. The current move suggests a continuation of the correction towards the channel’s lower boundary near 146.77. Upon completion of this pullback, the pair could form another leg higher, with an initial target at 149.00 and a further objective at 150.75. This outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator. The histogram has begun to decline, while the signal line has crossed beyond the histogram and is turning lower.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, having tested the 149.00 level, the pair is now forming a corrective decline. The support level at 146.77 serves as the initial target for this pullback. This scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently in the overbought zone above 80.0. A decisive break below the 80.0 level would signal a likely continuation of the corrective move.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is currently balancing between a dovish Fed and a cautious BoJ, amplified by domestic political risks. While the near-term bias is for a continued correction lower, the broader uptrend remains intact pending a break of key channel support. All eyes are on Friday’s wage data for the next significant catalyst.

Disclaimer:

Financial News Forex and Currency News

03 Sep

AI is transforming weather forecasting − and that could be a game changer for farmers around the world

By Paul Winters, University of Notre Dame and Amir Jina, University of Chicago

For farmers, every planting decision carries risks, and many of those risks are increasing with climate change. One of the most consequential is weather, which can damage crop yields and livelihoods. A delayed monsoon, for example, can force a rice farmer in South Asia to replant or switch crops altogether, losing both time and income.

Access to reliable, timely weather forecasts can help farmers prepare for the weeks ahead, find the best time to plant or determine how much fertilizer will be needed, resulting in better crop yields and lower costs.

Yet, in many low- and middle-income countries, accurate weather forecasts remain out of reach, limited by the high technology costs and infrastructure demands of traditional forecasting models.

A new wave of AI-powered weather forecasting models has the potential to change that.

By using artificial intelligence, these models can deliver accurate, localized predictions at a fraction of the computational cost of conventional physics-based models. This makes it possible for national meteorological agencies in developing countries to provide farmers with the timely, localized information about changing rainfall patterns that the farmers need.

The challenge is getting this technology where it’s needed.

Why AI forecasting matters now

The physics-based weather prediction models used by major meteorological centers around the world are powerful but costly. They simulate atmospheric physics to forecast weather conditions ahead, but they require expensive computing infrastructure. The cost puts them out of reach for most developing countries.

Moreover, these models have mainly been developed by and optimized for northern countries. They tend to focus on temperate, high-income regions and pay less attention to the tropics, where many low- and middle-income countries are located.

A major shift in weather models began in 2022 as industry and university researchers developed deep learning models that could generate accurate short- and medium-range forecasts for locations around the globe up to two weeks ahead.

These models worked at speeds several orders of magnitude faster than physics-based models, and they could run on laptops instead of supercomputers. Newer models, such as Pangu-Weather and GraphCast, have matched or even outperformed leading physics-based systems for some predictions, such as temperature.

A woman in a red sari tosses pellets into a rice field. — A farmer distributes fertilizer in India.
EqualStock IN from Pexels

AI-driven models require dramatically less computing power than the traditional systems.

While physics-based systems may need thousands of CPU hours to run a single forecast cycle, modern AI models can do so using a single GPU in minutes once the model has been trained. This is because the intensive part of the AI model training, which learns relationships in the climate from data, can use those learned relationships to produce a forecast without further extensive computation – that’s a major shortcut. In contrast, the physics-based models need to calculate the physics for each variable in each place and time for every forecast produced.

While training these models from physics-based model data does require significant upfront investment, once the AI is trained, the model can generate large ensemble forecasts — sets of multiple forecast runs — at a fraction of the computational cost of physics-based models.

Even the expensive step of training an AI weather model shows considerable computational savings. One study found the early model FourCastNet could be trained in about an hour on a supercomputer. That made its time to presenting a forecast thousands of times faster than state-of-the-art, physics-based models.

The result of all these advances: high-resolution forecasts globally within seconds on a single laptop or desktop computer.

Research is also rapidly advancing to expand the use of AI for forecasts weeks to months ahead, which helps farmers in making planting choices. AI models are already being tested for improving extreme weather prediction, such as for extratropical cyclones and abnormal rainfall.

Tailoring forecasts for real-world decisions

While AI weather models offer impressive technical capabilities, they are not plug-and-play solutions. Their impact depends on how well they are calibrated to local weather, benchmarked against real-world agricultural conditions, and aligned with the actual decisions farmers need to make, such as what and when to plant, or when drought is likely.

To unlock its full potential, AI forecasting must be connected to the people whose decisions it’s meant to guide.

That’s why groups such as AIM for Scale, a collaboration we work with as researchers in public policy and sustainability, are helping governments to develop AI tools that meet real-world needs, including training users and tailoring forecasts to farmers’ needs. International development institutions and the World Meteorological Organization are also working to expand access to AI forecasting models in low- and middle-income countries.

AI forecasts can be tailored to context-specific agricultural needs, such as identifying optimal planting windows, predicting dry spells or planning pest management. Disseminating those forecasts through text messages, radio, extension agents or mobile apps can then help reach farmers who can benefit. This is especially true when the messages themselves are constantly tested and improved to ensure they meet the farmers’ needs.

A recent study in India found that when farmers there received more accurate monsoon forecasts, they made more informed decisions about what and how much to plant – or whether to plant at all – resulting in better investment outcomes and reduced risk.

A new era in climate adaptation

AI weather forecasting has reached a pivotal moment. Tools that were experimental just five years ago are now being integrated into government weather forecasting systems. But technology alone won’t change lives.

With support, low- and middle-income countries can build the capacity to generate, evaluate and act on their own forecasts, providing valuable information to farmers that has long been missing in weather services.

About the Author:

Paul Winters, Professor of Sustainable Development, University of Notre Dame and Amir Jina, Assistant Professor of Public Policy, University of Chicago

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

03 Sep

Lithium Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Disruptions

Source: Streetwise Reports (9/2/25)

The lithium market faced renewed volatility with supply disruptions in China and South America. Read more to see how Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) fits into this shifting landscape.

The lithium market experienced renewed volatility in August as supply interruptions in China and South America lifted prices, even without a fundamental shortage. On August 10, Reuters reported that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) suspended production at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province after its permit expired. The mine represented about 46,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent annually, or roughly 3% of forecast global output for 2025. Reuters noted that the announcement “sparked a surge in lithium futures and miners’ share prices, amid a broader crackdown on overcapacity.”

Discovery Alert wrote on August 11 that CATL’s suspension represented “a significant disruption to global lithium supply chains,” with futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange immediately jumping 8%, marking the sharpest daily movement in more than 18 months. The site noted that lithium’s nearly 90% price decline since its 2022 peak had left producers struggling, and that this disruption provided “the first significant upward price catalyst” after two years of declines.

Stockhead wrote on August 12 that Australian spodumene producers quickly rallied on the news, with Liontown Resources Limited (LTR.AX) gaining 17.75% to close at 99.5 cents and Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS.AX) jumping 19.17% to US$2.30. Other producers such as Mineral Resources Limited (MIN.AX), IGO Limited (IGO.AX), and Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL:NASDAQ) also posted double-digit gains.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence wrote in a special issue dated August 14 that the Jianxiawo site accounted for around 30% of Jiangxi’s lithium output, ~3% of global LCE supply, and ~5% of global concentrate. The report confirmed that battery-grade lithium carbonate trades in China were assessed at 7.5% higher week-over-week by August 13. Daisy Jennings-Gray, head of prices at Benchmark, stated that “EXW China lithium carbonate prices are already heading as high as 80,000–87,000 RMB/tonne (US$11.1–12.1/kg), after operations at CATL’s Jianxiawo mine have been suspended.”

Concerns grew further in mid-August when reports surfaced of an acid tank explosion at Albemarle’s La Negra chemical plant in Chile. According to the Benchmark report, one of the plant’s three production lines was forced offline for three days. The disruption was limited, but the news added to supply concerns that were already influencing market sentiment.

Sector Dynamics: Lithium Outlook Stabilizing Amid U.S. Growth and Chinese Supply Cuts

Despite the shutdowns, Benchmark noted that China held significant inventories of approximately 130,000 tonnes LCE in July. The report explained that “this week’s price movements are primarily being driven by sentiment and reflect the speculative nature of lithium trading in China,” as buyers evaluated the duration of mine closures and their impact on downstream converters.

On July 21, Investing News Network highlighted that despite multi-quarter price weakness, long-term drivers such as electric vehicle adoption and energy storage demand remained intact. Paul Lusty told the outlet that “the fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, mega trends that we see developing within the global economy; the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system, and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence.”

Although disruptions at Jianxiawo and La Negra did not create an immediate structural deficit, sentiment-driven gains underscored the market’s sensitivity to regional supply interruptions. The August 14 Benchmark report concluded that while “the market will not move into deficit in the near term or by 2026,” uncertainty over the duration of closures and regulatory actions in China was likely to keep prices elevated in the short term.

In a Stockhead Mining article dated August 21, Kristie Batten highlighted the evolving role of the United States in lithium production and policy. While the U.S. had only one operating lithium mine in 2025, exploration investment surged, placing it third globally. S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Alice Yu noted that the U.S. imported roughly 90% of its lithium supply in 2024, largely through intermediaries in South Korea and Japan that rely on refined Chinese material.

Yu reported that geopolitical shifts and energy security concerns were now shaping U.S. policy, with recent budget changes reducing support for electric vehicles while redirecting funds toward domestic critical minerals capacity. The U.S. Department of Energy recently announced plans to deploy nearly US$1 billion in funding for critical minerals, including up to US$500 million for lithium-related processing and recycling, and US$50 million for emerging technologies such as direct lithium extraction.

Despite recent price weakness, spodumene hit a 2025 high of US$1,000 per ton earlier in August. Two permitted U.S. projects, Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass and Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge, remain under development, with Thacker Pass expected to enter production in late 2027. Additional projects designated as FAST-41 Transparency Projects aim to expedite permitting.

Yu concluded that strong 2024 exploration activity could yield long-term production gains, reinforcing the strategic imperative for supply diversification outside China.

UBS analysts signaled renewed optimism in the lithium sector following Chinese regulatory interventions that temporarily shuttered major production assets. According to a Stockhead on August 27, UBS upgraded its spodumene price forecasts by 9 to 32% across the 2026 to 2028 window, citing supply risks that could impact up to 240,000 tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent—roughly 15% of global supply. The bank now forecasts spodumene prices of US$1,250 per ton in 2026, US$1,150 per ton in 2027, and US$1,350 per ton in 2028.

UBS analysts Lachlan Shaw and Sky Han stated that additional mine suspensions in China’s Yichun region and potential curtailments in Qinghai could further strain supply. At the time of the report, lithium carbonate prices had risen 18% since late July, following the suspension of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine and various operations by Zijin’s Zangge Mining. UBS’s base case for 2025 includes a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 RMB per ton (approximately US$13,980 per ton). The analysts also raised equity ratings and price targets for several producers, citing market signals of tightening supply and growing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage.

Despite improvements in price sentiment, the report also noted downside risks if suspended operations return to market or high-cost supply from Africa is reactivated. As of the report date, lithium carbonate was priced at US$11,388 per ton, and 6% Li₂O spodumene at US$920 per ton.

Atlas Lithium Corp.

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) is a lithium development company focused on advancing its Neves Project to production. The Neves Project has received operational permitting, and its dense media separation plant has been acquired and transported to Brazil. With approximately 797 square kilometers of lithium mineral rights, Atlas Lithium owns the largest lithium exploration footprint in Brazil among publicly listed companies. Additionally, Atlas Lithium currently holds an approximate 30% ownership stake in Atlas Critical Minerals Corp. (JUPGF:OTCQB).

On August 18, Atlas reported strong exploration progress at Salinas. Initial drilling confirmed spodumene-rich mineralization close to surface, with grades above 2.0% Li₂O at depths of just 23 meters. CEO Marc Fogassa said the early results “exceeded our expectations,” noting the project’s potential as a future growth frontier alongside Neves.

The Neves Lithium Project remains Atlas’s top priority. A definitive feasibility study prepared by SGS Canada projected an internal rate of return of 145%, a net present value of US$539 million, and a payback period of 11 months. Operating costs were estimated at US$489 per tonne, placing Neves among Brazil’s lowest-cost projects. With mining concession approvals in place and a processing plant already transported to Brazil, Atlas is progressing Neves toward production while expanding its regional exploration portfolio.

Analysts have highlighted the company’s positioning. On July 14, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko Ihle maintained a Buy rating with an US$18 target, citing low operating costs and offtake and investment agreements totaling US$80 million. On August 5, Alliance Global Partners analyst Jake Sekelsky reiterated a Buy rating following release of the Neves DFS. He called the study “an inflection point on the road to lithium production,” referencing its US$540 million net present value at a lithium price assumption of US$1,700 per tonne and modest capital expenditure requirement of US$58 million.

What Could Drive Atlas Lithium Forward

Atlas Lithium’s near-term catalysts remain centered on the Neves Lithium Project in Minas Gerais, as specified in its August 2025 Investor Presentation. A definitive feasibility study projected an after-tax net present value of US$539 million, an internal rate of return of 145%, and a payback period of just 11 months. Average annual production was estimated at 146,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate at an operating cost of US$489 per tonne, supported by a direct capital expenditure requirement of US$57.6 million.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

	Retail: 52%
	Insiders & Management: 27%
	Strategic Investors: 11%
	Institutional: 10%

52%

27%

11%

10%

^*Share Structure as of 8/14/2025

Source: Atlas Lithium Corp.

The company has already secured all necessary operational permits to assemble and operate its processing plant and to begin mining operations at one of its ore bodies, with a dense media separation facility acquired and transported to Brazil. Atlas also benefits from strategic partnerships with Tier 1 buyers. Agreements with Chengxin, Yahua, and Mitsui & Co. included US$40 million in stock purchases already received and a committed US$40 million prepayment for offtake.

Exploration provides further optionality. The Neves Project hosts 84 mapped pegmatite outcrops, with over 4,500 soil samples collected and multiple anomalies identified for follow-up drilling. Early drilling at the Salinas Project, wholly owned by Atlas, has also confirmed near-surface spodumene mineralization, positioning it as a potential expansion frontier.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Atlas Lithium, its management and insiders own about 27% of the company’s shares. Strategic partners, including Mitsui & Co., hold another roughly 10%. Institutional investors own about 10%. The rest, about 53%, is in retail.

Refinitiv reports that Atlas has 19.58M outstanding shares and 11.43M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$117.3M. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–12.48 per share.

Important Disclosures:

Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pay SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical.
James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Metals Opinions

03 Sep

Rising Treasury yields intensified pressure on US and European stock indices

By JustMarkets

Wall Street opened September on a negative note, with US stocks falling alongside bonds amid uncertainty about trade policy, interest rates, and economic data. At the close of trading on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) dropped by 0.55%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.69%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed down by 0.82%. Rising Treasury yields added to the pressure, with 10-year yields approaching 4.3% and 30-year yields nearing 5%, which is seen as an unfavorable factor for equities. Sentiment was further dampened after a federal appeals court ruled that most of Trump’s tariffs were illegal, although they will remain in effect until October 14 pending a Supreme Court decision. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s August employment report, which could influence the Fed’s next rate decision, with markets currently expecting a 25-basis-point cut.

European stock markets were mostly down on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 2.29%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.70%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 1.57%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.87%. European stocks closed sharply lower on Tuesday, following a broad sell-off in global equities amid rising long-term borrowing costs, as markets digested the latest inflation data. The Eurozone’s annual inflation rate edged up to 2.1%, while the core rate did not decrease for the third consecutive month, fueling persistent concerns about sticky service sector inflation. This data coincided with a new record for European bond issuance in a single session amid large sales in the UK and Italy, which put additional pressure on long-term securities.

WTI oil prices fluctuated around $65.7 per barrel on Wednesday, holding onto gains of more than 1% from the previous session, a rally supported by US sanctions and ongoing supply concerns. Washington recently imposed sanctions on shipping companies and vessels linked to an Iraqi-Kurdish businessman involved in transporting Iranian oil under the guise of Iraqi crude. Supply pressure also intensified after Ukrainian drones attacked facilities representing about 17% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. Meanwhile, traders are turning their attention to the September 7th OPEC+ meeting, though analysts do not expect any immediate changes to production levels.

Asian markets were mostly lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.47%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed down by 0.30%.

Hong Kong stocks fell in early Wednesday trading, marking a second straight session of losses after a weak start on Wall Street the day before, where investors were assessing the outlook for President Donald Trump’s tariffs following a federal appeals court ruling that most of his sweeping measures were illegal. Further declines in mainland Chinese stocks also soured sentiment, even as a private survey showed that China’s composite PMI rose to a 9-month high in August, indicating a third consecutive month of private sector growth amid broad gains in manufacturing and services.

The Australian dollar was little changed at around $0.652 on Wednesday after falling by 0.5% in the previous session, as a strengthening US dollar offset optimistic domestic GDP data. On the domestic front, Australia’s economy grew by 0.6% in the second quarter, surpassing expectations of 0.5% and accelerating from a revised 0.3% in the first quarter, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth. Annual GDP also increased by 1.8%, the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2023, though investors remained cautious about the outlook, with market swaps indicating more than an 80% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep rates unchanged later this month.

A quarterly survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) revealed that economists have raised their 2025 growth expectations for Singapore and expect monetary policy to remain unchanged at the next review. The median growth expectations was raised from 1.7% in June to 2.4% after the government increased its 2025 projections range to 1.5%–2.5% in August, driven by stronger first-half results. Economists projections a 0.9% year-on-year growth for the third quarter. Geopolitical tensions were cited as the primary downside risk, while an easing of trade disputes and a pickup in the technology sector were named as key growth drivers.

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar held its recent decline at around $0.585 amid growing expectations of further policy easing by the Reserve Bank, given the weakness of the domestic economy. Recent data showed a sharp fall in export volumes in the June quarter, while import volumes rose significantly, indicating that trade likely had a major impact on GDP. Analysts now expect two more rate cuts, which would bring the rate down to 2.50%, the lowest level since mid-2022.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,415.54 −44.72 (−0.69%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,295.81 −249.07 (−0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 23,487.33 −550.00 (−2.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,116.69 −79.65 (−0.87%)

USD Index 98.32 +0.55 (+0.57%)

News feed for: 2025.09.03

Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
China Caxin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+3);
German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:45 (GMT+3);
US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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