InvestMacro

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.03%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.22%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower by 1.54%. Investors began to doubt the justification for high investments in AI, which led to a collapse in Micron Technology shares by -10.6%, AMD fell by -6.9%, and Intel by -9%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones remained almost unchanged, as companies from “non‑tech” sectors limited the overall market decline.

Speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target despite the recent stabilization of price pressures. The head of the regulator emphasized the preservation of the Fed’s institutional independence and announced the final abandonment of the “forward guidance” practice, shifting to a fully data‑dependent decision‑making model. Considering that at the June meeting the Fed adopted a hawkish stance with an emphasis on potential rate hikes before the end of the year, the abandonment of preliminary guidance increases volatility in expectations and underscores the institution’s determination to maintain restrictive conditions until the downward inflation trend becomes sustainable.

European indices closed mixed on Wednesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.79%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.34%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.18%. Preliminary data for June 2026 indicated a significant slowdown in Eurozone inflation to 2.8% from 3.2% in May, which was noticeably below market expectations of 3.0%. This is the lowest reading since February, achieved thanks to a substantial decline in energy price growth to 8.7%, as well as cooling inflationary pressure in services to 3.2% and food to 1.6%. The core Index, excluding volatile energy and food components, also fell to 2.4%, indicating a gradual weakening of overall price pressure. Positive dynamics were observed in almost all major economies of the bloc, with indicators in Germany, France, and Italy declining significantly, while Spain maintained inflation at 3.6%.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices fell below the psychological mark of 68 dollars per barrel, updating to a four‑month low amid signs of de‑escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The resumption of shipping and constructive indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Qatar reduced the geopolitical premium in energy prices, triggering a wave of selling in the markets. Pressure on prices is also being exerted by the fundamental factor of oversupply. Despite Tehran maintaining claims to administrative control over the strait, the partial restoration of tanker flows has significantly eased market participants’ concerns about the stability of global supplies, forcing investors to revise their positions toward a bearish scenario.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.59%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.64%.

The Australian dollar continues to consolidate near a three‑month low below 0.690 USD under pressure from weak macroeconomic data and revised market expectations for monetary policy. The unexpected trade deficit for May of 3.02 billion Australian dollars, the worst figure since late 2015, resulted from a decline in export shipments alongside a record high in imports, which significantly worsened investor sentiment. As a result, markets sharply reduced the probability of an August rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 15%, with every second market participant now expecting the tightening cycle to end.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.26%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.79%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.52%. The main driver of growth was the technology sector, where investors ignored concerns about AI‑company valuations in favor of strong expectations from semiconductor manufacturers: AMD shares jumped by 7.7%, Intel rose by 6%, and Nvidia added 2.6%. Additional support for the market came from the stabilization of oil prices at pre‑conflict levels, which reduced inflationary pressure and eased fears of aggressive Fed rate hikes.

European indices closed in the green on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.44%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.12%. On Tuesday, European stock markets ended trading with solid gains thanks to easing inflationary pressure, which strengthened expectations of a softer monetary policy and lower borrowing costs for businesses. Weaker‑than‑expected inflation readings in Germany, France, and Italy reinforced investors’ belief that the price growth, which accelerated due to the Middle Eastern conflict, is beginning to stabilize. Against this backdrop, market participants revised expectations for ECB rates, reducing the likelihood of further tightening this year. This supported the bond market and improved credit activity predictions. The banking sector reacted with gains: shares of UniCredit, BNP Paribas, and ING rose by about 2%. Significant growth was also seen in technology and industrial companies – Siemens and Siemens Energy shares rose after positive prognosis for the development of the data‑center market, while ASML shares jumped 7% following renewed interest in semiconductor manufacturers.

The rise of silver to the level of 60 dollars per ounce after falling to seven‑month lows shows that the market has begun reacting more strongly to fundamental industrial demand rather than solely to interest‑rate factors. Unlike gold, silver remains both a safe‑haven metal and an industrial raw material, so its dynamics often differ during technological cycles. Support for prices is currently provided by renewed interest in the semiconductor sector, data‑processing centers, and the expansion of computing infrastructure – areas where silver is used due to its high electrical conductivity.

On Tuesday, oil prices remained around 70.2 dollars per barrel, while in the second quarter the market recorded a decline of roughly 30%, marking the sharpest quarterly drop since 2020. Pressure on prices intensified due to increased supply linked to rising shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz after progress in peace negotiations, which allowed previously restricted volumes from the Persian Gulf to be released. Additional influence came from US sanctions exemptions for Iran, which added new oil volumes to the market amid already high supply, including shipments bypassing restrictions.

Natural gas prices in the US rose by more than 3%, approaching 3.30 dollars per MMBtu. The main growth factors were increased supply to LNG export terminals and expectations of record electricity consumption. Additional support for the market comes from a massive heat wave: high temperatures are forcing households to use cooling systems more actively, and in some regions, including New York, outlooks point to levels close to historical highs. Given projections of persistent extreme heat until mid‑July, increased load on gas‑fired power plants is expected, which provide about 40% of the country’s electricity generation.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.86%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.97%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.63%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.51%.

On Monday, the offshore yuan weakened to around 6.79 per dollar, breaking a two‑day rise amid growing investor concerns about China’s economic outlook. Negative sentiment was reinforced by the results of a private business‑activity survey, according to which the manufacturing PMI fell to a three‑month low (51.7 versus 51.8 in May). These data contrasted with official statistics published on June 30, which showed an increase in the manufacturing PMI, but markets focused on more alarming assessments from Goldman Sachs analysts: experts noted weak consumer confidence, a prolonged real‑estate crisis, and persistent pressure on the labor market. Pressure on the currency intensified despite the People’s Bank of China setting the daily midpoint at 6.8067 per dollar, the strongest fixing in three years.

The New Zealand dollar fell to 0.566 USD, consolidating near seven‑month lows amid continued strengthening of the US dollar. Investors remain cautious, assessing the monetary policy outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand ahead of next week’s meeting. Analysts’ opinions on further rate hikes remain mixed: on the one hand, the market is pricing in the possibility of tightening; on the other hand, the recent decline in global oil prices reduces the need for aggressive measures.

The US stock markets on Monday showed confident growth, breaking a five‑day losing streak and recovering part of their positions after recent volatility. Investors expressed optimism amid signs of de‑escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as a reassessment of the prospects for the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.59%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.18%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 2.25%.

The leaders of growth were companies from the communication and high‑tech sectors, including Tesla, which demonstrated a significant rally, while the materials sector came under pressure despite continued activity in the energy segment. A notable event of the day was the inclusion of Alphabet in the Dow Jones Index, where it replaced telecommunications giant Verizon. Against this backdrop, Alphabet shares showed a noticeable increase.

European indices closed lower on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.20%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session down by 0.23%. European indices have been showing negative dynamics for the second session in a row due to persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Despite agreements between the US and Iran on a temporary halt to exchanges of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area, investors remain cautious ahead of new inflation data and the upcoming European Central Bank forum in Sintra, where key speeches by the heads of the Fed and ECB may clarify the future outlook for monetary policy.

Oil prices on Monday corrected upward, rising above 70 dollars per barrel after falling to a four‑month low. Despite attempts to normalize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, tanker traffic volumes remain limited, as recent weekend attacks have significantly undermined market participants’ confidence in the safety of this strategic route. Diplomatic efforts aimed at de‑escalating the conflict remain in focus: the US and Iran agreed to suspend military operations ahead of peace talks in Doha scheduled for Tuesday.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.68%.

The Australian dollar updated a three‑month low, falling below 0.687 USD under pressure from the global strengthening of the US dollar. Despite the published RBA minutes, where the regulator confirmed its readiness for further rate hikes due to inflation risks in the Middle East, the market reacted skeptically. Lower energy prices led to a revision of the probability of policy tightening in Australia to 40%, and investors began pricing in a possible rate cut in mid‑2027.

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.79 per dollar, ending a two‑month period of growth. The main pressure on the currency came from the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Fed and demand for a “safe-haven” due to geopolitical tensions. The People’s Bank of China also contributed to this trend by setting daily fixings below market expectations, signaling the authorities’ readiness for gradual yuan depreciation.

China’s economic indicators showed moderate positive dynamics: the manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.3 (compared to 50.0 in May), and the non‑manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2. Steady demand for high‑tech exports helped the economy adapt to logistical disruptions caused by the Middle Eastern conflict.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.08% (weekly +0.62%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 3.47% (weekly -1.95%). The technology‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.09% (weekly -4.62%). The global economic environment remains heavily influenced by US–Iran negotiations, with the recent increase in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz having pushed commodity prices lower, easing concerns about inflation and further Federal Reserve tightening. However, new reports of US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz radically change market dynamics and threaten the fragile ceasefire, potentially restoring a high geopolitical risk premium across global markets.

This week, investor attention will be focused on US labor‑market data, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment figures, and wage dynamics, as well as manufacturing activity and consumer confidence indicators. These releases will coincide with upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada officials at the ECB Forum.

European indices closed lower on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.29% (weekly -1.46%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.55% (weekly -0.58%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.45% (weekly +0.32%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.21% (weekly +1.39%). The key event for European markets this week will be the release of fresh inflation data for the eurozone and major regional economies, where a slight slowdown in headline inflation is expected due to cheaper energy, while core inflation remains persistently high. Parallel to this, investor attention is focused on the ECB Forum in Sintra, where leaders of major global central banks will discuss monetary policy prospects. Combined with unemployment statistics for the eurozone, Germany, Italy, and Spain, these discussions will help assess the economy’s resilience to current financial conditions.

On Friday, the Swiss franc (CHF) posted a local rebound against the US dollar, recovering after a recent decline driven by lower inflation expectations and weakening dollar momentum. Nevertheless, the currency remains under pressure due to geopolitical factors: potential de‑escalation in the Middle East could weaken the franc’s status as a safe‑haven asset, while the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) current monetary stance – maintaining a zero policy rate despite raising inflation expectations – adds further challenges for the currency.

On Monday, crude oil prices (WTI) showed moderate recovery, rising to around $70 per barrel after a recent drop to four‑month lows triggered by escalating US–Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a series of reciprocal strikes affecting commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, both sides expressed readiness to pause active hostilities ahead of peace talks scheduled for this week in Doha. Although shipping activity temporarily increased amid hopes for compliance with ceasefire terms, many vessels remain blocked in the region, continuing to affect the stability of energy supplies and price dynamics.

Platinum prices (XPT) fell to $1,600 per ounce, approaching yearly lows amid a broad decline in precious metals triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The resurgence of clashes near the Strait of Hormuz erased recent progress in negotiations, causing a sharp spike in oil prices and intensifying inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the persistent strength of the US dollar further limited demand for the metal among holders of other currencies.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 4.15% (weekly -2.40%), China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 3.50% (weekly -4.69%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.76% (weekly -4.79%), while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed slightly higher at 0.18% (weekly -0.43%). Investor focus in the Asia‑Pacific region is directed toward China’s business activity indicators, where both manufacturing and services sectors are hovering near stagnation, as well as Japan’s Tankan survey, reflecting cautious business sentiment in Q2. Japan is expected to show positive dynamics in retail sales and industrial production amid extremely low unemployment, while Australia’s market will concentrate on central bank meeting minutes and updated trade data pointing to a widening surplus. Other regional economies also face a busy agenda: India is preparing to release its budget and industrial production reports, while South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will publish key statistics on trade, inflation, and GDP.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) began the week with a large liquidity injection, providing 157.5 billion yuan through seven‑day reverse repo operations while keeping the key rate at its historic low of 1.4%, confirming the regulator’s commitment to supporting economic growth through accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, to more flexibly manage short‑term liquidity and stabilize interbank conditions, the PBoC deployed a new tool – an overnight reverse repo – injecting an additional 300 billion yuan into the system.

The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to lose ground, falling below the psychological level of 0.690 USD amid geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which undermines investor appetite for risk assets. Despite the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and renewed negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices remain elevated, intensifying concerns about global inflation.