InvestMacro

China’s trade balance data disappoints investors. Bitcoin reaches a one‑month high

Monday ended with gains in the US stock market. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.63%. The S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.02%. The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up 1.06%. Investor optimism was driven by a correction in oil prices and a decline in bond yields amid hopes for diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran. Despite the failure of Sunday’s negotiations and Donald Trump’s announcement of a blockade on Iranian exports, his subsequent statement that Iran was willing to resume dialogue calmed the market. The main driver of growth was the technology sector, where Oracle shares surged 12%.

Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the 74,000‑dollar mark, reaching a four‑week high. The digital assets’ positive momentum is linked to investors returning to risk‑on strategies amid signals of a possible resumption of dialogue between Washington and Tehran. Analysts highlight Bitcoin’s strong resilience: it has gained more than 10% since the start of the conflict, outperforming many traditional assets. However, experts believe that a full‑scale rally requires regulatory clarity. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce expressed support for establishing a stable regulatory framework for crypto brokers – a signal the industry interpreted as a step toward broader institutional acceptance of digital assets.

On Monday, European stock markets closed in the red, although indices managed to recover part of their intraday losses by the close. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.26%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.17%. The main source of concern was Donald Trump’s announcement that the US Navy had begun enforcing a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of diplomatic efforts in Islamabad. This reignited fears of an oil shortage. Beyond geopolitics, markets also reacted to major political shifts within the EU following Hungary’s election results. Péter Magyar’s victory marked the end of Viktor Orbán’s 16‑year tenure, a development seen as strengthening the position of pro‑EU forces.

Platinum prices (XPT) surged to a four‑week high, reaching 2,100 dollars per ounce. The rise in precious metals was driven by signs of potential de‑escalation in the Middle East: Washington and Tehran signaled readiness to return to negotiations. However, despite the current rally, platinum remains under pressure from declining industrial demand. The automotive sector continues to reduce purchases of the metal due to the global shift toward electric vehicles, which do not require catalytic converters.

WTI crude oil prices stabilized near 98 dollars per barrel, posting a gain of less than 2%. Notably, early in the session, prices had jumped as much as 9%, but the market cooled after signals of a possible resumption of dialogue between Washington and Tehran. According to the latest OPEC+ report, the alliance’s daily output fell by 7.9 million barrels in March due to shipping disruptions in the strait. The supply deficit was partially eased by news from Saudi Arabia: the kingdom reported the restoration of production at the Manifa oil field and full capacity of the East–West pipeline, which provides access to the Red Sea.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.74% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed down 0.90%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.39%.

On Tuesday, China’s 10‑year government bond yield fell to a six‑week low of 1.78%, marking its third consecutive day of decline. The main driver was weak trade data: annual export growth slowed to 2.5% (a five‑month low), totaling 321.03 billion dollars. At the same time, imports surged by 27.8%, the fastest pace since autumn 2021, reaching 511.3 billion dollars. This sharp imbalance reduced the trade surplus to 51.13 billion dollars, nearly half of last year’s figure and significantly below analyst expectations.

The Australian dollar (AUD) stabilized at 0.709 USD, holding near a four‑week high. The currency was supported by hopes for de‑escalation between Washington and Tehran as well as signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser expressed concern that inflation remains above the 2-3% target range and that current interest rates may not be high enough to contain price growth, especially given elevated oil prices. His comments pushed the probability of a rate hike at the May meeting from 69% to 72%, although the final decision will depend on upcoming labor‑market and consumer‑activity data.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,886.24 +69.35 (+1.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 48,218.25 +301.68 (+0.63%)

DAX (DE40) 23,742.44 −61.51 (−0.26%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,582.96 −17.57 (−0.17%)

USD Index 98.43 −0.22 (−0.22%)

News feed for: 2026.04.14

Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (LOW)
Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3) – AUD (MED)
China Trade Balance (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3) – CHA50, HK50 (MED)
Sweden Inflation Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – SEK (MED)
US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 Apr

Geopolitics remains at the center of investor attention

By JustMarkets

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.56% (weekly result +3.11%). The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.11% (weekly result +3.48%). The tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed Friday up 0.14% (weekly result +4.03%). The upcoming week will be a moment of truth for the US market, as the geopolitical agenda collides with the hard numbers of corporate reality. Vice President J.D. Vance conducts difficult negotiations in Islamabad, attempting to turn the fragile ceasefire into a stable agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street is preparing for the start of earnings season. Reports from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, will show how well the financial sector has adapted to high volatility and interest rates that the Federal Reserve continues to hold at restrictive levels.

Investors are particularly concerned about the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The Headline Index is expected to jump 1.2% month‑over‑month, confirming that the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is already filtering through production chains. Attention to the tech sector will peak at the end of the week when TSMC and Netflix release their earnings. These reports will serve as a litmus test for global semiconductor demand and consumer confidence amid inflationary pressure.

However, the situation remains extremely tense following the diplomatic marathon in Islamabad. Direct negotiations between the US delegation led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Iranian officials ended without a breakthrough. Tehran continues to maintain the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has already caused unprecedented disruptions in global oil and gas supplies. Adding fuel to the fire is Donald Trump’s tough rhetoric, warning of new fees for ships in the region – effectively turning the strait into a “toll corridor” under Iran’s control.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened slightly, falling 0.16% to 1.38 per US dollar. The main pressure on the loonie came from a combination of geopolitical calm and disappointing domestic data. Although the unemployment rate stabilized at 6.7%, analysts note that this was driven more by a decline in labor‑force participation than by genuine hiring momentum.

The Mexican peso (MXN) ended the trading week with a 0.3% gain, closing at 17.31 per dollar, reaffirming its status as one of the most resilient emerging‑market currencies. The primary driver of the peso’s strength remains the carry‑trade strategy. The large interest‑rate differential between Banxico and the US Federal Reserve makes the peso highly attractive to investors seeking yield in an environment of relative stability.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) slipped by 0.01% (weekly +3.79%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.17% (weekly +4.85%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.55% (weekly +5.12%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.03% (weekly +2.95%). This week, Europe’s main event will be the release of the final March inflation data, which will confirm the Eurozone’s transition into an energy‑shock phase. Inflation in Germany and the UK is expected to reflect a sharp rise in costs caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and oil‑price volatility. Wholesale‑price data in Germany will serve as a leading indicator of how quickly the LNG shortage will spill into retail markets in the coming months. Alongside inflation reports, markets will assess the resilience of the real economy through February trade balance and industrial‑production data – both under scrutiny due to the impact of the 10% US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

On Europe’s political map, the central event is the parliamentary election in Hungary. Investors are awaiting the outcome of the contest between Viktor Orbán and opposition leader Péter Magyar, whose TISZA party, according to recent polls, has a chance to strip the ruling government of its majority. The result will determine whether Hungary retains its veto power on key EU policy issues or whether the architecture of European unity undergoes radical change.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 6.99% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed the week up 0.01%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) climbed 3.17%. This week, investor attention in the Asia‑Pacific region will focus on China, where a batch of macroeconomic data is expected to confirm the resilience of the world’s second‑largest economy. GDP growth for Q1 2026 is outlooked to accelerate to 5.0%, an important signal amid global instability. Despite expected slowdowns in retail sales and industrial production in March, a substantial trade surplus of 112 billion dollars and strong credit expansion (up to 3.4 trillion yuan) indicate that Beijing continues to successfully stimulate both domestic and external growth drivers. In Australia, the focus shifts to the labor market, where a stable unemployment rate of 4.3% and ongoing job creation support expectations of another RBA rate hike as early as May.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,816.89 −7.77 (−0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 23,803.95 −3.04 (−0.013%)

DAX (DE40) 23,803.95 −3.04 (−0.013%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,600.53 −2.95 (−0.03%)

USD Index 98.70 −0.12 (−0.12%)

News feed for: 2026.04.13

US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

13 Apr

USD/JPY Rises for Third Day: Will There Be Yen Intervention or Not

By Analytical Department RoboForex

USD/JPY rose to 159.73 on Monday. The Japanese yen has fallen for a third consecutive day due to a fresh surge in oil prices following the failure of the United States and Iran to reach an agreement at talks in Islamabad.

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to block the Strait of Hormuz and is considering resuming attacks on Iran, dramatically increasing the risks of an escalating global energy crisis.

The protracted conflict is narrowing the Bank of Japan’s room for manoeuvre. A split remains within the regulator: some members are concerned about rising inflation, while others worry about the risks of an economic slowdown. The BoJ is scheduled to meet on 27-28 April.

Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa noted that monetary policy could be used to curb inflation through support for a stronger yen.

The exchange rate is now approaching the key level of 160 per dollar. Previously, this area served as a trigger for currency interventions by the Japanese authorities.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around the 158.88 level and, with an upside breakout, completed a growth wave to 159.82. Today, the beginning of a correction to the 158.88 level is expected, followed by a rise to 160.60. Subsequently, a new downward impulse to 157.70 is anticipated, with the prospect of a continued correction to 156.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is below the zero level and pointing strictly upwards, reflecting the potential for the wave to continue.

On the H1 chart, the market completed a growth wave structure to 159.82. Today, the probability of the next downward wave developing to the 158.88 level (testing from above) will be considered. The scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20, indicating that downside potential remains in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues its three-day rally as failed US-Iran talks in Islamabad triggered a fresh spike in oil prices, with President Trump threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz and resume attacks. The yen remains under pressure, while the Bank of Japan faces internal divisions over how to respond to competing inflation and growth risks. With the pair approaching the psychologically significant 160 level-a previous intervention trigger-markets are on high alert for potential action from Japanese authorities. Technical indicators suggest a possible near-term correction before further upside, but the yen’s fate ultimately hinges on whether geopolitical tensions escalate or ease in the coming days.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Apr

Marathon talks, zero results…

By ForexTime

US-Iran peace talks fail
Oil benchmarks rally on supply fears
Dollar gains amid safe-haven flows
US30 may be rocked by big bank earnings
Time for gold to resume decline?

Over the weekend, US-Iran peace talks concluded without a resolution after 21 hours of negotiations.

Both sides were unable to agree on issues like Iran’s nuclear program or its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

This failure is poised to erode market sentiment and boost oil benchmarks amid rising geopolitical risk premiums.

And such was reflected on Sunday when markets opened with sharp gaps from Friday’s close.

WTI: ↑ 10%
BRENT: ↑ 8%
USDInd: ↑ 1%
XAUUSD: ↓ 2%
XAGUSD: ↓ 4%

Note: Gains shown represent the gap from Friday’s close.

What next?

The failure to reach a deal represents a major element of uncertainty for markets.

However, Iran’s foreign ministry left the door open to further talks, so all is not lost.

This could translate into heightened volatility across global markets due to the fragile and sensitive sentiment.

Update on the Hormuz

Shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz operated at minimal levels on Sunday before Trump vowed to begin a full naval blockage on Monday.

A full blockade of the strait will add further pressure to global oil markets.

Note: US to impose Iran shipping blockade from 10 a.m. ET Monday.

—————————————————————————-

US30 braces for big bank earnings

DID YOU KNOW:

FXTM’s US30 has gained over 3% since the start of April.

WHY?

Last week, US equities saw their biggest weekly gain in 2026 as investors evaluated economic data and a fragile truce between US-Iran.

HOWEVER

Recent gains may be relinquished due to weekend talks ending without a deal.

WHAT COULD MOVE US30 THIS WEEK?

All eyes will be on big bank earnings and speeches by Fed officials.

Q1 earnings season unofficially kicks off on Monday, led by the biggest US banks.

Monday 13th: Goldman Sachs
Tuesday 14th: JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Blackrock
Wednesday 15th: Bank of America

US banks are expected to post record trading revenues thanks to conflict-induced market volatility.

Note: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan account for almost 16% of the US30 weight.

Markets are forecasting a 2.8% move, either Up or Down, for Goldman Sachs stocks post-earnings.

Markets are forecasting a 3.1% move, either Up or Down, for JPMorgan Chase stocks post-earnings

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

BULLISH: A solid move above 48,000 may trigger an incline toward 49,000 and 50,000.

BEARISH: Weakness below 48,000 could see a move toward the 200-day SMA at 47,000 and 46,000.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Apr

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets into Bearish Territory

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Bitcoin & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the US Dollar Index (1,830 contracts) with Bitcoin (287 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-22,964 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-20,870 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-12,616 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-10,693 contracts), the EuroFX (-8,048 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-7,487 contracts), the British Pound (-3,689 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-823 contracts), and with the Mexican Peso (-213 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators Drop Euro Bets fall into Bearish Territory

Highlighting the Currencies speculator positioning this week was the weakness in the Euro speculator positions. Euro bets fell this week by -8,048 contracts and this was the eighth consecutive week that the Euro speculator positions declined. This has been a swift turnaround for the Euro, coming from a strong bullish position into a new negative bearish level. The speculator bets were as high as +180,305 contracts on February 10th and have fallen all the way to this week’s new negative position of -7,541 contracts. This is an eight-week total decline by -187,846 net positions and marks the first bearish position in the Euro speculator positions since March 4, 2025, a span of 57 weeks.

The Euro sentiment has sold off sharply, but in the Foreign Exchange markets, the Euro price has not fared too badly and closed this week at 1.1766. Euro positions have now been in a range dating back to June 2025 between 1.1500 on the downside to a topside resistance level of 1.1935 approximately. We’ve not seen a clear break of these two levels since June.

The Canadian Dollar also saw speculator weakness again this week and fell by over -22,000 contracts. This is the fourth week of bearish contracts for the Canadian Dollar positioning and has now pushed the overall net position to -55,648 net contracts, which marks the most bearish position since December 23rd. Canadian Dollar contracts had seen an overall bullish level from February 3rd until March 17th of this year before retreating back into bearish territory. In the Foreign Exchange markets, the Canadian Dollar rebounded this week after falling for four consecutive weeks and closed out the week at the exchange rate (against the US Dollar) of 0.7252. The Canadian Dollar is currently under its 200-week moving average and is trading in an ascending triangle pattern with a topside resistance of around 0.7400 while support underneath can be found at 0.7200.

The US Dollar Index saw a gain in bullish positions this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time out of the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index has now been in an overall bullish level for the fourth consecutive week and has gone from a position of -5,882 contracts on March 10 to this week’s net position of 5,511 net contracts, which is a change of +11,393 contracts in just the past four weeks. The US Dollar Index pricing, however, has continued to be stuck in a range from 98.00 on the low side to 100.00 on the upside. The DXY has been in this range for the past six weeks, oscillating between the higher side and the lower side, and this week closed out at 98.44.

Bitcoin and the Mexican Peso lead Currency prices this week

In the Currency Markets, Bitcoin, although a cryptocurrency, rose by 6.20% for the week. The Mexican Peso was up by 3.27% over the past five days. Next up, the Brazilian Real advanced by 2.94% on the week, followed by the Australian Dollar and the New Zealand Dollar, which rose by 2.78% and 2.75%, respectively. The British Pound was up by 2.14%, while the Euro also saw a boost of 1.90%. The Swiss Franc advanced higher by 1.54% and was followed by the Canadian Dollar, which saw an increase of 0.77%. The Japanese Yen rounded out the gainers with a 0.30% uptick.

The only market that saw a decline on the week was the US Dollar Index, which fell by -1.54%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (94 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Canadian Dollar (60 percent) and the US Dollar Index (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the British Pound (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (24 percent), the Japanese Yen (25 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (59.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.1 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (15.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (24.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (30.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (38.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (60.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (100.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (23.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (32.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (41.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.3 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (27 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (20 percent), the Australian Dollar (10 percent) and the Brazilian Real (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The EuroFX (-63 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-36 percent), Japanese Yen (-29 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (19.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-62.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-66.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-4.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (-29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-23.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (21.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-35.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-25.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (7.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-18.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.1 percent)
Bitcoin (27.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 1,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,681 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.1	21.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	39.9	6.4
– Net Position:	5,511	-6,675	1,164
– Gross Longs:	23,084	7,926	3,501
– Gross Shorts:	17,573	14,601	2,337
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	38.4	59.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-25.2	34.2

Euro Currency Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -7,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 507 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	60.0	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	64.2	5.7
– Net Position:	-7,541	-33,150	40,691
– Gross Longs:	200,946	464,746	85,038
– Gross Shorts:	208,487	497,896	44,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	69.9	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-62.6	60.6	-28.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Positioning Notes:

British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,665 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	70.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	44.9	11.8
– Net Position:	-56,354	62,698	-6,344
– Gross Longs:	47,344	172,233	22,515
– Gross Shorts:	103,698	109,535	28,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	84.7	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	2.5	-18.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -93,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -20,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -72,872 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	55.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	29.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-93,742	90,396	3,346
– Gross Longs:	91,560	192,103	42,118
– Gross Shorts:	185,302	101,707	38,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	73.7	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.0	26.5	0.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,694 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,871 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	74.3	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	29.6	22.5
– Net Position:	-30,694	38,686	-7,992
– Gross Longs:	10,586	64,346	11,477
– Gross Shorts:	41,280	25,660	19,469
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	62.6	44.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-2.2	-38.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -22,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	58.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.3	34.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-55,648	58,038	-2,390
– Gross Longs:	60,714	139,988	31,055
– Gross Shorts:	116,362	81,950	33,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	41.3	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.8	35.6	-14.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,813 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -10,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,506 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.1	30.9	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	67.7	5.9
– Net Position:	70,813	-97,347	26,534
– Gross Longs:	137,959	81,872	42,080
– Gross Shorts:	67,146	179,219	15,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	5.2	96.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.6	-8.8	4.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Positioning Notes:

New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -7,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,588 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	77.4	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.3	29.2	6.6
– Net Position:	-36,075	37,071	-996
– Gross Longs:	12,636	59,568	4,103
– Gross Shorts:	48,711	22,497	5,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.7	75.8	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	10.6	-37.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,684 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	45.8	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	79.6	1.2
– Net Position:	57,471	-61,787	4,316
– Gross Longs:	91,055	83,760	6,529
– Gross Shorts:	33,584	145,547	2,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	56.3	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.3	0.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 40,095 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -12,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,711 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.3	24.3	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	63.3	0.7
– Net Position:	40,095	-44,497	4,402
– Gross Longs:	80,157	27,699	5,206
– Gross Shorts:	40,062	72,196	804
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	6.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	29.5	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-2.2	-1.8

Bitcoin Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,253 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.4	0.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.0	10.7	5.5
– Net Position:	2,540	-2,232	-308
– Gross Longs:	16,142	150	927
– Gross Shorts:	13,602	2,382	1,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	6.9	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.2	-24.8	-13.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Oil, Bitcoin & AUD lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on Tuesday April 7th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category and is a current snapshot of how speculators were positioned as of Tuesday. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

The 6-WK Trend score is the change in the Strength Index over the past 6 weeks and signals how strong and which way the Strength Index is going.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in tied at the top of the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Soybean Oil speculator level is currently at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a boost by 35 percentage points this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 148,242 net contracts this week with a gain of 13,685 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in next and also tied at the top of the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is now at a 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a rise of 27 percentage points this week while the speculator position registered 2,540 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 287 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position has cooled off lately and comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The AUD speculator level now resides at a 94 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at an increase by 10 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 70,813 net contracts this week with a drop of -10,693 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score saw no change this week while the overall speculator position was 208,459 net contracts this week with a drop of -19,387 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Soybean Meal speculator level sits at a 90 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong gain of 29 percentage points this week.

The speculator position was 116,864 net contracts this week with a small dip of -3,330 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Cocoa speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -8 percentage points this week while the overall speculator position was -22,072 net contracts this week with a dip of -471 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position continues to see very weak sentiment and comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year speculator level is at a 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -31 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -1,712,015 net contracts this week with a decline of -74,691 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Natural Gas speculator level now resides at a 14 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 9 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -183,987 net contracts this week with a reduction of -16,531 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing as the GBP speculator level is at a 16 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score showed no change this week as the speculator position was -56,354 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,689 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the NZD speculator level sitting at a 24 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -7 percentage points this week and the speculator position was -36,075 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,487 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

12 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7thand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,701 contracts) with Steel (420 contracts) and Copper (123 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-6,897 contracts), Silver (-487 contracts) and with Palladium (-343 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Platinum Bets rise for 7th out of last 8 weeks

Highlighting the Metals market speculative positions this week was Platinum, which saw speculator bets rise higher for a second straight week as well as the seventh time out of the past eight weeks. Platinum bets have now risen to a net standing of over +18,000 contracts, and this week’s level marks the most bullish position of the past 13 weeks dating back to January 6th. The Platinum positioning has now been above +10,000 net contracts for 47 consecutive weeks, dating back to May 13th of 2025.

Gold positions fell this week for the second consecutive week and for the third time out of the last four weeks. Gold speculator positioning has cooled off significantly since January, when the net position was a total of 251,238 contracts on January 13th to this week’s standing of 156,305 contracts, a difference of -94,933 contracts being subtracted from the overall net bullish position. The Gold position has now had less than +200,000 contracts for 10 straight weeks, and this week marked the lowest level of bullish net contracts since February 2024.

The Metals Markets’ price performance was higher across the board.

In the metals markets, prices were higher across the board as a ceasefire in the Iran war seemed to give relief to the metals’ recent price slides. Silver was the biggest winner on the week with a 6.17% gain while Copper came in second with a 4.65% rise for the week. Platinum was a close third with a 4.24% gain. Gold was higher by 2.65%, followed by Steel, which got a boost of 2.34%, and then Palladium rounded out the gainers with a 2.12% increase for the week.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (85 percent) and Palladium (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (26 percent) and Gold (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.6 percent)
Silver (26.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.0 percent)
Copper (70.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (70.6 percent)
Platinum (56.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.9 percent)
Palladium (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.0 percent)
Steel (85.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (83.4 percent)

Platinum & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (12 percent) and Silver (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.3 percent)
Silver (2.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-0.2 percent)
Copper (-17.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-17.9 percent)
Platinum (12.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.0 percent)
Palladium (-13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.2 percent)
Steel (-2.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 156,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -6,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,202 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.9	16.3	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	70.9	3.3
– Net Position:	156,305	-193,751	37,446
– Gross Longs:	205,368	57,729	49,117
– Gross Shorts:	49,063	251,480	11,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	58.6	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	2.8	-12.2

Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,417 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,904 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	24.5	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	58.3	8.2
– Net Position:	23,417	-38,915	15,498
– Gross Longs:	32,810	28,211	24,908
– Gross Shorts:	9,393	67,126	9,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	75.0	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	3.5	-18.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 40,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,104 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	37.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	60.4	4.1
– Net Position:	40,227	-51,615	11,388
– Gross Longs:	72,637	84,019	20,588
– Gross Shorts:	32,410	135,634	9,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.7	26.0	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	17.9	-13.0

Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,038 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 1,701 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,337 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	29.0	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	67.5	4.6
– Net Position:	18,038	-23,034	4,996
– Gross Longs:	27,259	17,393	7,735
– Gross Shorts:	9,221	40,427	2,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	47.1	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-8.8	-15.8

Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,393 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,050 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	37.2	14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	34.8	8.0
– Net Position:	-1,393	375	1,018
– Gross Longs:	6,655	5,655	2,228
– Gross Shorts:	8,048	5,280	1,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	20.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	13.0	-2.6

Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 11,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,918 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	61.7	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.2	94.9	0.2
– Net Position:	11,338	-11,727	389
– Gross Longs:	12,103	21,746	472
– Gross Shorts:	765	33,473	83
– Long to Short Ratio:	15.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	5.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	14.7	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.3	-3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

12 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (33,911 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (24,825 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (8,889 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (7,746 contracts) and also the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,825 contracts) seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-74,691 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-39,561 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-27,363 contracts), and with the Fed Funds (-23,798 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

The US Treasury Bond leads the Bonds Market’s price performance

In the Bond Markets, the long US Treasury Bond was the biggest winner on the week with a modest 0.36% gain. This was followed by the Ten-Year Note, which rose by 0.34% on the week. The Five-Year Bond was slightly higher with a 0.24% rise and was followed by the Two-Year Bond, which rose by a similar 0.11% uptick.

Fed Funds were virtually unchanged at a 0.02% rise, while the 1-Month SOFR ticked up by 0.02%, and the 3-Month SOFR followed with a 0.01% edge higher.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (74 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (68 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (30 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (45.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (48.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (58.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (56.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (43.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (66.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (65.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (72.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (73.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (70.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (67.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (66.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (29.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (28.6 percent)

5-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (19 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-29 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-31.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-34.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (26.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (29.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-5.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-22.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (2.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (20.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (5.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (10.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (7.6 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -74,504 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -23,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,706 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	64.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	61.5	1.8
– Net Position:	-74,504	59,457	15,047
– Gross Longs:	315,774	1,191,545	47,913
– Gross Shorts:	390,278	1,132,088	32,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	53.3	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-17.9	-15.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -564,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 24,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -589,139 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.8	58.4	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	53.7	0.1
– Net Position:	-564,314	563,506	808
– Gross Longs:	2,024,340	7,040,930	18,517
– Gross Shorts:	2,588,654	6,477,424	17,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.5	41.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-10.5	-1.3

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -57,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lift of 8,889 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,508 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	61.4	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	57.0	0.0
– Net Position:	-57,619	57,550	69
– Gross Longs:	299,348	800,504	201
– Gross Shorts:	356,967	742,954	132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	32.3	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.1	-20.1	-0.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,712,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -74,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,637,324 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.6	45.7	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,712,015	1,638,978	73,037
– Gross Longs:	525,560	3,791,639	220,318
– Gross Shorts:	2,237,575	2,152,661	147,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	34.1	-16.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,552,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 33,911 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,586,840 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	80.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	57.4	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,552,929	1,494,039	58,890
– Gross Longs:	656,801	5,190,375	393,143
– Gross Shorts:	2,209,730	3,696,336	334,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	43.8	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.6	-23.1	-41.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Positioning Notes:

10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -823,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -39,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -784,063 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	78.7	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	63.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-823,624	799,342	24,282
– Gross Longs:	567,683	4,032,672	394,531
– Gross Shorts:	1,391,307	3,233,330	370,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.3	73.1	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	4.6	8.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -161,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position gain of 5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,212 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	81.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	70.5	12.9
– Net Position:	-161,387	268,760	-107,373
– Gross Longs:	207,781	1,934,136	196,994
– Gross Shorts:	369,168	1,665,376	304,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	46.2	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	32.6	-12.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -27,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,633 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	74.1	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	76.6	7.6
– Net Position:	-58,996	-44,309	103,305
– Gross Longs:	197,953	1,324,620	239,238
– Gross Shorts:	256,949	1,368,929	135,933
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	34.7	52.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	33.8	-47.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -260,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position increase of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -268,129 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	85.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	74.3	8.2
– Net Position:	-260,383	261,393	-1,010
– Gross Longs:	126,501	1,941,140	184,064
– Gross Shorts:	386,884	1,679,747	185,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.5	42.2	14.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-2.4	-14.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

12 Apr

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Brent Oil

By InvestMacro

Open Interest (OI) is the amount of contracts that are currently live in the marketplace. OI Strength shows the current strength compared to the past 3-years.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was Brent Oil with a gain of 4,691 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Bloomberg Index (-98,639 contracts), Natural Gas (-16,531 contracts), WTI Crude (-11,335 contracts), Gasoline (-8,734 contracts) and Heating Oil (-1,205 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Brent Crude and Bloomberg Commodity Index highlight weekly changes

Highlighting the Energy market changes this week was Brent Oil, which was the only market with a positive week in speculator bets. Brent Oil saw a sharp drop by over -18,000 contracts last week (March 31st) and rebounded by almost +5,000 contracts this week. Overall, the Brent Crude Oil speculator position remains in negative territory as this market is usually negative and incorporates a lot of hedging activity.

Next up, the Bloomberg Commodity Index positions dropped by the most on record, falling by almost -100,000 contracts this week after seeing an influx of positions by over +35,000 contracts last week (March 31st). The Bloomberg Commodity Index bets fell by -98,639 contracts this week, bringing the overall net position standing to -75,342 contracts. This means the Bloomberg Commodity Index is now at the lowest or most bearish level on record dating back to 2016, according to CFTC data.

Energy Markets Price Performance was lower across the board on the Iran war ceasefire.

In the energy markets, Gasoline fell the least this week with a -3.47% decline, followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which retreated by -4.46%. Natural Gas was down by over 6% with a drop by -6.13%.

The biggest losers on the week and most significantly affected by the Iran war ceasefire, were Brent Oil which fell by -13.91%, WTI Crude Oil, which dropped by -14.09%, and Heating Oil, which decreased strongly by -16.45% over the past five days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Heating Oil

On the downside, the Bloomberg Index (0.0 percent) and Natural Gas (14.4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (52.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (56.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (36.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (30.1 percent)
Natural Gas (14.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (25.0 percent)
Gasoline (53.0 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (62.6 percent)
Heating Oil (55.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (56.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (0.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (100.0 percent)

Brent Oil & WTI Crude top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Brent Oil (26.2 percent) and WTI Crude (9.5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Index (-63.8 percent) and Gasoline (-43.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (9.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (23.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (26.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.6 percent)
Natural Gas (9.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (11.8 percent)
Gasoline (-43.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-22.5 percent)
Heating Oil (-10.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-7.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-63.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (34.7 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 202,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -11,335 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 213,488 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	43.4	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	54.7	2.6
– Net Position:	202,153	-230,466	28,313
– Gross Longs:	381,615	883,576	81,673
– Gross Shorts:	179,462	1,114,042	53,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.3	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-4.2	-31.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -31,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position advance of 4,691 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,815 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	40.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	30.1	3.2
– Net Position:	-31,124	27,416	3,708
– Gross Longs:	67,615	107,138	12,052
– Gross Shorts:	98,739	79,722	8,344
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.2	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-32.7	37.7

Natural Gas Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -183,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position fall of -16,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,456 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	36.7	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	26.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-183,987	162,087	21,900
– Gross Longs:	212,869	572,123	56,582
– Gross Shorts:	396,856	410,036	34,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	85.2	58.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-14.0	16.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 59,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -8,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,326 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	49.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.4	72.6	5.1
– Net Position:	59,592	-74,020	14,428
– Gross Longs:	80,253	158,736	30,682
– Gross Shorts:	20,661	232,756	16,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.0	37.8	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.2	37.2	9.5

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -1,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,092 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	49.7	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	62.9	9.4
– Net Position:	8,887	-30,231	21,344
– Gross Longs:	34,892	113,696	42,973
– Gross Shorts:	26,005	143,927	21,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	37.8	76.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	9.1	-4.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -75,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -98,639 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,297 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.3	56.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.1	25.3	0.0
– Net Position:	-75,342	74,711	631
– Gross Longs:	100,140	134,711	657
– Gross Shorts:	175,482	60,000	26
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	25.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-63.8	64.0	-9.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

12 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (13,685 contracts) with Cotton (12,970 contracts), Live Cattle (11,756 contracts) and Lean Hogs (2,750 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-43,938 contracts), Soybeans (-19,387 contracts), Wheat (-9,292 contracts), Sugar (-5,636 contracts), Soybean Meal (-3,330 contracts), Coffee (-3,349 contracts) and Cocoa (-471 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soybean Meal leads Soft Commodities price performance.

The price performance of Soft Commodities this week was led by Soybean Meal, which rose by roughly 5%, with a gain of 4.87% over the past five days. Cotton comes in next with a 3.30% gain, while Live Cattle rose by 2.85% on the week. Soybeans rounded out the leaders with a 1.38% rise.

On the downside, Cocoa was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.09% decline, followed by Lean Hogs which fell by -0.72%. Next up, Corn was lower by -1.89% and was followed by Wheat which declined by -2.44%. Soybean Oil dipped by a similar -2.51%.

The biggest losers on the week were Coffee, which fell by -4.67%, and Sugar, which dropped by -8.27% over the past five days.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil, Soybeans & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (100 percent), Soybean Meal (90 percent) and Soybeans (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Wheat (88 percent) and Live Cattle (81 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (34 percent) and Coffee (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (75.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (81.8 percent)
Sugar (34.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (45.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (48.3 percent)
Soybeans (89.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (94.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (93.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (90.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (91.9 percent)
Live Cattle (80.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (68.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (59.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.2 percent)
Cotton (75.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.4 percent)
Wheat (88.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (96.5 percent)

Cotton & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (54 percent) and Corn (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (35 percent), Sugar (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (29 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-8 percent) and Wheat (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (38.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.6 percent)
Sugar (32.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.4 percent)
Coffee (8.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.2 percent)
Soybeans (-0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (35.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (45.2 percent)
Live Cattle (12.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (0.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-16.7 percent)
Cotton (53.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (62.0 percent)
Cocoa (-8.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 290,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -43,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 334,757 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	40.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	53.3	10.8
– Net Position:	290,819	-232,969	-57,850
– Gross Longs:	459,961	735,945	138,149
– Gross Shorts:	169,142	968,914	195,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	21.9	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	38.4	-37.2	-42.6

SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -70,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decrease of -5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,117 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	52.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	45.5	9.1
– Net Position:	-70,753	67,254	3,499
– Gross Longs:	193,215	487,724	87,929
– Gross Shorts:	263,968	420,470	84,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.3	67.0	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.9	-32.0	20.7

COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -3,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,056 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	38.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	51.0	5.2
– Net Position:	21,707	-21,687	-20
– Gross Longs:	50,143	68,102	9,061
– Gross Shorts:	28,436	89,789	9,081
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	57.2	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-8.4	-3.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 208,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -19,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 227,846 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	45.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	63.4	8.3
– Net Position:	208,459	-177,172	-31,287
– Gross Longs:	283,509	456,246	51,916
– Gross Shorts:	75,050	633,418	83,203
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.9	12.1	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-0.4	11.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 148,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position boost of 13,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 134,557 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	43.5	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.7	66.0	3.8
– Net Position:	148,242	-164,152	15,910
– Gross Longs:	196,916	317,878	43,469
– Gross Shorts:	48,674	482,030	27,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	97.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.2	-34.9	23.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 116,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position reduction of -3,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,194 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	43.3	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	66.1	4.6
– Net Position:	116,864	-137,109	20,245
– Gross Longs:	168,116	260,240	48,019
– Gross Shorts:	51,252	397,349	27,774
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	8.5	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-30.3	3.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 104,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position uptick of 11,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,260 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	28.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	54.1	13.6
– Net Position:	104,016	-87,776	-16,240
– Gross Longs:	154,471	98,073	30,416
– Gross Shorts:	50,455	185,849	46,656
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	15.4	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-12.8	-6.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 2,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,711 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	34.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	46.8	8.5
– Net Position:	46,461	-40,270	-6,191
– Gross Longs:	124,530	114,438	21,871
– Gross Shorts:	78,069	154,708	28,062
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	43.1	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	14.3	22.5

COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 61,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position rise of 12,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,387 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	35.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	56.0	3.2
– Net Position:	61,357	-69,843	8,486
– Gross Longs:	131,279	124,058	19,645
– Gross Shorts:	69,922	193,901	11,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	23.7	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.8	-52.5	35.5

COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -22,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position lowering of -471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,601 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	50.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	39.8	5.4
– Net Position:	-22,072	22,199	-127
– Gross Longs:	44,385	103,762	10,928
– Gross Shorts:	66,457	81,563	11,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.9	-12.4

WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -18,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
Weekly Speculator position decline of -9,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,415 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.
The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.
The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.5	35.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	31.5	6.4
– Net Position:	-18,707	17,642	1,065
– Gross Longs:	138,222	175,867	33,066
– Gross Shorts:	156,929	158,225	32,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	9.6	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	-2.6	31.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.