By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was a jump by the Canadian Dollar (20,358 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (7,052 contracts), Brazilian Real (2,910 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,132 contracts), Bitcoin (321 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (122 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,600 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,599 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,612 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,948 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-475 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Canadian Dollar bets gained strongly for 2nd week as CAD price rises for 4th week
Highlighting the Currency markets this week were the Canadian dollar speculator bets, which rose by over 20,000 contracts this week following last week’s approximate gain of 20,000 contracts as well. Canadian dollar speculators have boosted their positions in the past two weeks following the previous five weeks where speculator bets had declined sharply and brought the overall standing to its lowest level since December. The current standing for speculator bets is still in bearish territory at -38,476 contracts but is at a 67% strength score compared to the past 3-years range illustrating how bearish the CAD has been recently.
The Canadian dollar, as one of the commodity currencies, is typically helped out by higher commodity prices and could see an outlook for a higher upside with higher energy and commodity prices likely to persist going forward. There is also speculation the Bank of Canada (BOC) may be inclined to have a bias of raising interest rates with the economic outlook. The Canadian dollar’s price in the Foreign Exchange market has risen for four consecutive weeks. This week the CAD closed out trading at a 0.7374 exchange rate and above its 200-week moving average. Currently, the CAD is in an ascending triangle pattern with overhead resistance around 0.7400. A break above this could test the highest levels for the Canadian dollar versus the US dollar since September of 2024.
The Australian dollar speculator positions got a boost this week by over 7,000 contracts and halts a three-week streak of declining bullish bets. The overall positioning for the Australian dollar speculators comes in at 71,869 contracts this week, which is an extreme bullish score for the Australian dollar compared to the last three years. The Australian dollar’s strength score is currently at a 94.9% reading compared to these last three years which had seen net positions mainly in bearish territory until January 27th. The Australian dollar currency price in the Foreign Exchange markets has been on a strong bullish run and has risen for five consecutive weeks and in 13 out of the past 15 weeks. The Aussie closed out the week at 0.7204, and this marks the highest weekly price close since May of 2022. The AUD is currently sitting right at resistance in the 0.7200 area and a further break above this could bring 0.7350 into play.
Next up, the Brazilian real rose by roughly 3,000 speculator contracts this week, and has risen for two consecutive weeks, as well as three out of the past four weeks. The real has seen a consistently bullish net contract position dating back to February of 2025. The real currently has a total net standing of 46,443 contracts and the current positioning is at a strength score of 73.7% of its three-year range — bullish, but not extremely bullish as of yet. The BRL price has been in a strong uptrend in the Currency markets and has risen for six out of the past seven weeks. Currently the BRL, which closed at 0.2006 this week, is at the highest weekly close since March of 2024, a span of over two years.
Finally, the US Dollar Index saw a slight decline in its speculative bets this week for the third consecutive week. Right now, the US Dollar Index has a total net position of 4,508. Compared to the past three years, this positioning is almost right down the middle with a 56.3% strength score signalling an almost a neutral position for speculators at this time compared to the past three years. In the FX markets, the US Dollar Index continues to fluctuate in a range between 96.50 on the downside and with prices being capped around the 100.00 level on the upside. The current pricing is very close to the middle of that range, and we will have to wait to see if the US Dollar Index decisively breaks either of those barriers before evaluating the next levels to be.
Japanese Yen (BOJ Intervention) and Australian Dollar lead Currency markets price performance.
Over the past week, the Japanese Yen was the highest mover in the Foreign Exchange market, with a 1.62% gain over the past five days. The Yen’s sharp gain this week was reportedly helped out by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Currency intervention. This was the first time the BOJ had intervened in the Currency markets in the past couple of years, and this was to stem a slide in the Yen’s performance. The intervention helped cut the US Dollar strength against the Yen as the USD/JPY Currency pair dropped from an exchange rate mid-week over 160.70 to approximately around the 156.00 area. The USD/JPY pair closed the week out at the 157.08 exchange.
Coming in second for the week was the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.83% and has now risen by 4.79% over the past 30 days. Over the past 90 days, the Australian Dollar has been up by 7.75% against the US Dollar.
The Canadian Dollar came in next with a 0.59% gain and was followed by the Swiss Franc, which rose by 0.53%. The New Zealand Dollar was higher by 0.45%, while the Brazilian Real was close behind at 0.44%, and the British Pound Sterling was also not too far behind with a 0.38% rise. Rounding out the week for the gainers was the Euro, which edged up by a small 0.13%.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index was lower by -0.18%, followed by the Mexican Peso, which fell by -0.27%, and Bitcoin came in as the biggest decliner with a -0.57% shortfall.
Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin has seen the biggest rise with a roughly 15% gain, followed by the Brazilian Real, which is up by 5.86% over the past 30 days. The only market lower over the past 30 days is the US Dollar Index with a -1.91% decline.
Over the past 90 days, the Brazilian Real is the performance leader with an 8.42% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 7.75%. On the downside, the US Dollar Index is lower by -1.14% and is followed by Bitcoin, which is lower over the past 90 days by a modest -0.54%.
Currencies Data:
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Australian Dollar
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (97 percent) and the Australian Dollar (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (74 percent), Canadian Dollar (68 percent) and the US Dollar Index (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (12 percent) and the British Pound (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (23 percent) and the Swiss Franc (30 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.6 percent)
EuroFX (42.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (24.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (67.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (59.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (94.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (49.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (49.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (73.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.6 percent)
Bitcoin (97.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (90.7 percent)
Bitcoin & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the EuroFX (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (2 percent) and the Australian Dollar (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.
The New Zealand Dollar (-27 percent) was the leader in the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-20 percent), Canadian Dollar (-17 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (5.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-24.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-20.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-16.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-40.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (1.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-26.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-13.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-0.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (15.3 percent)
Individual COT Forex Markets:
US Dollar Index Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,983 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.1 | 26.5 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.4 | 44.2 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | 4,508 | -5,404 | 896 |
| – Gross Longs: | 17,180 | 8,119 | 2,687 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,672 | 13,523 | 1,791 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.3 | 41.9 | 54.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.2 | -1.2 | -6.4 |
Euro Currency Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position reduction of -5,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,324 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.1 | 58.6 | 10.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.6 | 68.0 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | 35,712 | -75,137 | 39,425 |
| – Gross Longs: | 217,091 | 469,715 | 86,558 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 181,379 | 544,852 | 47,133 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 42.4 | 55.6 | 57.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.6 | -5.7 | 4.5 |
British Pound Sterling Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -60,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position lowering of -8,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,039 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.6 | 66.7 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.6 | 42.4 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -60,639 | 64,120 | -3,481 |
| – Gross Longs: | 59,577 | 175,790 | 25,368 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 120,216 | 111,670 | 28,849 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.8 | 85.2 | 44.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.1 | -2.4 | 3.5 |
Japanese Yen Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -102,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decline of -7,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,460 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.6 | 54.1 | 11.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 56.0 | 27.4 | 10.9 |
| – Net Position: | -102,059 | 99,270 | 2,789 |
| – Gross Longs: | 106,530 | 201,527 | 43,285 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 208,589 | 102,257 | 40,496 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.6 | 76.0 | 43.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.4 | 7.4 | 13.0 |
Swiss Franc Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position decrease of -1,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,273 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 6.8 | 79.2 | 13.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.2 | 33.8 | 21.7 |
| – Net Position: | -35,221 | 42,729 | -7,508 |
| – Gross Longs: | 6,359 | 74,562 | 12,960 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 41,580 | 31,833 | 20,468 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 29.5 | 69.1 | 46.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -20.3 | 21.4 | -13.2 |
Canadian Dollar Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position advance of 20,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,834 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.3 | 60.2 | 11.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 41.6 | 45.5 | 11.0 |
| – Net Position: | -38,476 | 37,143 | 1,333 |
| – Gross Longs: | 66,517 | 152,035 | 29,088 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 104,993 | 114,892 | 27,755 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.9 | 32.8 | 49.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.9 | 17.5 | -11.1 |
Australian Dollar Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position boost of 7,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,817 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.4 | 34.7 | 15.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 23.4 | 69.8 | 6.4 |
| – Net Position: | 71,869 | -97,385 | 25,516 |
| – Gross Longs: | 136,909 | 96,356 | 43,136 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 65,040 | 193,741 | 17,620 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 94.9 | 5.1 | 93.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 1.5 | -1.6 | 1.7 |
New Zealand Dollar Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position advance of 2,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,454 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent.
- The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.8 | 84.4 | 4.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 66.3 | 27.5 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | -46,322 | 47,550 | -1,228 |
| – Gross Longs: | 9,044 | 70,524 | 3,716 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 55,366 | 22,974 | 4,944 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 3.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 11.9 | 87.6 | 36.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -26.6 | 26.6 | -5.5 |
Mexican Peso Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 67,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position advance of 122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,701 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 51.3 | 44.6 | 3.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.7 | 80.6 | 1.0 |
| – Net Position: | 67,823 | -72,704 | 4,881 |
| – Gross Longs: | 103,697 | 90,261 | 6,932 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 35,874 | 162,965 | 2,051 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.9 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 3.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 49.1 | 48.9 | 49.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.5 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
Brazilian Real Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position gain of 2,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,533 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 58.5 | 34.9 | 3.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.8 | 68.5 | 0.6 |
| – Net Position: | 46,443 | -50,794 | 4,351 |
| – Gross Longs: | 88,492 | 52,756 | 5,272 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 42,049 | 103,550 | 921 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 5.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 73.7 | 25.0 | 45.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
Bitcoin Futures:
Positioning Notes:
- Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
- Weekly Speculator position lift of 321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,071 net contracts.
- This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.
- The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent.
- The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 80.4 | 0.8 | 4.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 69.3 | 11.6 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | 2,392 | -2,332 | -60 |
| – Gross Longs: | 17,431 | 175 | 1,046 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 15,039 | 2,507 | 1,106 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | | | |
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 97.1 | 4.7 | 34.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | | | |
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.3 | -10.5 | -7.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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