InvestMacro

COT Bonds Speculators trim their Eurodollar bearish bets

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (115,943 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (38,817 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (25,883 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (24,484 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-44,174 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-13,433 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-12,393 contracts), and the 5-Year Bond (-5,695 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the continued decrease in speculator bearish positions for the Eurodollar market. The large speculator position in Eurodollar futures fell this week for the third straight week and for the eighth time out of the past eleven weeks. This recent trimming of the bearish position has shaved off a total of 1,167,970 contracts – going from a total of -2,877,322 contracts on September 13th to this week’s total of -1,709,352 contracts.

Eurodollar contracts are a bet on short-term interest rates where more bullish bets equal a bet on lower interest rates while more bearish bets means speculators are looking for higher interest rates. The Eurodollar speculator contracts hit a bearish peak on August 9th at a total of -2,885,979 contracts and since then speculators have reduced their bearish bets in eleven out of those sixteen weeks.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,234,801	0	-1,709,352	22	1,952,152	76	-242,800	51
FedFunds	1,641,595	58	-32,618	36	42,973	65	-10,355	33
2-Year	2,099,117	15	-528,178	9	519,516	89	8,662	56
Long T-Bond	1,197,681	42	-103,917	51	66,851	34	37,066	82
10-Year	3,897,383	58	-296,772	27	359,620	65	-62,848	65
5-Year	4,303,419	69	-529,349	5	618,522	89	-89,173	57

US Treasury Bond tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (50.8 percent) leads the bonds category and is the only market above its three-year midpoint (above 50 percent).

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (5.5 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (41.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (55.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (26.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.4 percent)
Eurodollar (21.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (19.5 percent)

Strength Trends led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Treasury Bond

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (6.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) and the Fed Funds (-7.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-31.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-6.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-0.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-10.9 percent)
Eurodollar (6.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (5.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,709,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 115,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,825,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	68.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	41.6	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,709,352	1,952,152	-242,800
– Gross Longs:	520,547	4,964,242	360,091
– Gross Shorts:	2,229,899	3,012,090	602,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.3	-3.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	75.0	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	72.3	2.5
– Net Position:	-32,618	42,973	-10,355
– Gross Longs:	184,273	1,230,567	30,497
– Gross Shorts:	216,891	1,187,594	40,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	65.1	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.7	-4.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -528,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 38,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -566,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	81.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	56.3	8.5
– Net Position:	-528,178	519,516	8,662
– Gross Longs:	156,249	1,700,306	186,732
– Gross Shorts:	684,427	1,180,790	178,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	89.2	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	17.4	34.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -529,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -523,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	68.0	9.3
– Net Position:	-529,349	618,522	-89,173
– Gross Longs:	316,986	3,544,108	309,862
– Gross Shorts:	846,335	2,925,586	399,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	88.7	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	3.9	2.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -296,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 24,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	75.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-296,772	359,620	-62,848
– Gross Longs:	469,072	2,939,872	351,940
– Gross Shorts:	765,844	2,580,252	414,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	64.6	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-1.4	-1.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	77.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	65.3	17.6
– Net Position:	-79,249	159,553	-80,304
– Gross Longs:	142,588	1,050,386	159,395
– Gross Shorts:	221,837	890,833	239,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	81.2	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	2.1	-3.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	78.8	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	73.2	12.1
– Net Position:	-103,917	66,851	37,066
– Gross Longs:	47,371	943,291	182,448
– Gross Shorts:	151,288	876,440	145,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	34.4	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	4.9	3.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -389,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	82.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	60.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-389,404	331,412	57,992
– Gross Longs:	60,228	1,222,893	175,631
– Gross Shorts:	449,632	891,481	117,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	75.4	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	11.5	10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

03 Dec

Soft Commodity Speculators drop Cotton bets for 12th time in 13 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (21,477 contracts) with Soybeans (16,969 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,333 contracts), Coffee (1,550 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-8,927 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-8,233 contracts), Wheat (-5,787 contracts), Cocoa (-5,586 contracts), Live Cattle (-1,481 contracts) and Cotton (-1,143 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued decline in Cotton‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Cotton have declined for three straight weeks and in twelve out of the past thirteen weeks. Overall, Cotton bets have dropped by a total of -35,187 contracts in the past thirteen weeks going from a standing of +51,767 total net contracts on August 30th to just +16,580 total net contracts this week.

Cotton futures prices have been in sharp retreat since late-August as well. The front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over $83.00 which is down almost 30 percent from August 30th. Cotton prices are also down by approximately 47 percent from the 2022 high-point reached in early May at over $155.95.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,412,121	1	239,739	8	-262,654	93	22,915	37
Gold	433,661	1	110,003	19	-119,233	82	9,230	3
Silver	121,258	0	17,483	33	-28,997	68	11,514	26
Copper	146,760	0	1,984	38	-3,362	64	1,378	33
Palladium	7,537	8	-1,631	14	1,687	84	-56	38
Platinum	66,468	33	24,259	42	-28,762	60	4,503	28
Natural Gas	985,010	7	-163,429	30	136,191	74	27,238	45
Brent	155,500	15	-32,087	57	29,424	42	2,663	45
Heating Oil	266,829	23	30,733	88	-48,255	20	17,522	59
Soybeans	634,754	13	87,208	40	-61,551	68	-25,657	28
Corn	1,226,410	0	270,242	65	-231,169	39	-39,073	21
Coffee	196,365	9	-14,636	2	13,695	99	941	12
Sugar	876,309	34	179,035	56	-222,607	39	43,572	62
Wheat	310,667	10	-33,305	0	37,024	100	-3,719	91

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) and Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) lead the soft commodity markets with Soybean Meal residing in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (64.6 percent) and Sugar (55.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent), Coffee (1.8 percent) and Cotton (19.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (61.8 percent)
Sugar (55.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.6 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (40.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (71.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (83.7 percent)
Live Cattle (47.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.4 percent)
Cotton (19.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.8 percent)
Cocoa (26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (32.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.1 percent)

Strength Trends led Soybean Oil & Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) and Sugar (18.1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Live Cattle (15.5 percent), Soybeans (10.0 percent) and Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-38.9 percent), Wheat (-31.2 percent) and Cotton (-12.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.8 percent)
Sugar (18.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.8 percent)
Coffee (-38.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-65.2 percent)
Soybeans (10.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.8 percent)
Cotton (-12.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-31.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 270,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 21,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	45.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	63.9	13.2
– Net Position:	270,242	-231,169	-39,073
– Gross Longs:	360,350	552,816	122,723
– Gross Shorts:	90,108	783,985	161,796
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	39.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	2.6	13.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 179,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	45.2	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	70.6	5.8
– Net Position:	179,035	-222,607	43,572
– Gross Longs:	282,793	396,433	94,194
– Gross Shorts:	103,758	619,040	50,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	39.3	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-16.6	6.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	56.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	49.1	4.1
– Net Position:	-14,636	13,695	941
– Gross Longs:	35,834	110,025	9,075
– Gross Shorts:	50,470	96,330	8,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.8	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	38.8	-20.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	50.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	60.5	11.9
– Net Position:	87,208	-61,551	-25,657
– Gross Longs:	151,317	322,231	49,683
– Gross Shorts:	64,109	383,782	75,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	67.7	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-9.6	-2.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	41.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	67.5	4.6
– Net Position:	103,854	-116,889	13,035
– Gross Longs:	136,812	183,315	33,560
– Gross Shorts:	32,958	300,204	20,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	26.8	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-15.9	-8.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 102,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	40.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	73.4	6.5
– Net Position:	102,339	-122,247	19,908
– Gross Longs:	122,479	149,139	43,937
– Gross Shorts:	20,140	271,386	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.5	19.4	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-0.1	-15.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	33.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	51.2	12.0
– Net Position:	54,034	-52,522	-1,512
– Gross Longs:	106,265	95,838	33,215
– Gross Shorts:	52,231	148,360	34,727
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	41.4	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-14.3	-7.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	35.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	48.6	13.1
– Net Position:	35,499	-25,480	-10,019
– Gross Longs:	73,573	68,586	15,357
– Gross Shorts:	38,074	94,066	25,376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	63.4	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-6.5	-15.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	47.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	57.1	5.7
– Net Position:	16,580	-18,172	1,592
– Gross Longs:	63,352	92,854	12,743
– Gross Shorts:	46,772	111,026	11,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	80.3	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.2	-0.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	47.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	52.8	3.0
– Net Position:	9,698	-13,322	3,624
– Gross Longs:	80,762	123,639	11,404
– Gross Shorts:	71,064	136,961	7,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	74.3	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-0.9	24.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -33,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	42.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	30.2	11.4
– Net Position:	-33,305	37,024	-3,719
– Gross Longs:	87,807	130,938	31,815
– Gross Shorts:	121,112	93,914	35,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	33.5	17.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

03 Dec

U.S. Dollar: Has the Mainstream Been Way Too Confident?

Meanwhile, greenback’s Elliott waves are showing the way

By Elliott Wave International

Investors who use Elliott wave analysis know that the main price trend of a financial market subdivides into five waves.

Also know that wave 1 and wave 5 are often approximately equal in length.

That knowledge helped the Global Market Perspective, a monthly Elliott Wave International publication which covers 50-plus financial markets, make a successful call on the U.S. Dollar index.

The November issue showed a monthly chart which dates back more than 14 years and said:

The U.S. Dollar Index continues to look like it’s topping. The index is testing the level where wave (5) would equal wave (1), a common relationship.

Keep in mind that Global Market Perspective subscribers get to see all the wave labeling.

With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that the top registered on Sept. 28 — still, that doesn’t discount the fact that the topping process was recognized by using Elliott wave analysis.

Since that analysis on Nov. 4, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined in price.

Another giveaway that the greenback was headed for a tumble is that the mainstream seemed to be growing a bit too confident about the prospect for a further rise in the index. These two magazine covers provide examples of that:

The late analyst Paul Macrae Montgomery showed over the years that specialist industry magazines sometimes highlight financial trends on their covers just as those trends are ending.

Of course, Elliott wave analysis nor any indicator — such as the magazine cover indicator — can offer a guarantee about future market action, but the Elliott wave model and many time-tested indicators have proven to be quite useful throughout different market cycles.

If you’d like to learn about the Elliott wave model, know that the definitive text on the subject is Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book which should be in every serious investor’s library:

[R.N.] Elliott himself never speculated on why the market’s essential form is five waves to progress and three waves to regress. He simply noted that that was what was happening. Does the essential form have to be five waves and three waves? Think about it and you will realize that this is the minimum requirement for, and therefore the most efficient method of, achieving both fluctuation and progress in linear movement. One wave does not allow fluctuation. The fewest subdivisions to create fluctuation is three waves. Three waves (of unqualified size) in both directions would not allow progress. To progress in one direction despite periods of regress, movements in that direction must be at least five waves, simply to cover more ground than the intervening three waves. While there could be more waves than that, the most efficient form of punctuated progress is 5-3, and nature typically follows the most efficient path.

Good news: You can read the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

A Club EWI membership is also free and allows you complimentary access to a treasure trove of Elliott wave resources on financial markets, investing and trading. These resources include videos and articles from Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

Hop on the Club EWI bandwagon now by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline U.S. Dollar: Has the Mainstream Been Way Too Confident?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Dec

REIT Aims To Improve Value for Unitholders

Source: David Chrystal (12/1/22)

To achieve this end, the board of trustees is currently weighing various options, noted an Echelon Capital Markets report.

The Firm Capital Apartment REIT (FCA.U:TSX.V) posted a year-over-year AFFO/unit, or adjusted funds from operation per unit, gain in Q3/22 and during the quarter, commenced a strategic review, reported Echelon Capital Markets analyst David Chrystal in a Nov. 15 research note. Firm Capital invests in U.S. multifamily properties, owns assets and interests in joint venture investments, and provides debt financing.

The Canada-based real estate investment trust’s Q3/22 AFFO/unit was US$0.09, a 7% increase over Q3/21, Chrystal relayed. The figure beat Echelon’s estimate of US$0.06 due to a foreign exchange gain.

Target Price Decreased

However, Echelon reduced its target price on the REIT to US$7 per share from US$7.50, following the release of its Q3/22 results, to reflect writedowns carried out during the quarter on certain investments. The trust’s current share price is about US$4.67.

“Given the current capital market environment, a significant NAV discount is likely to persist under the trust’s current structure,” wrote Chrystal.

The target price could be raised in the future, Chrystal noted, if First Capital were to divest certain assets at an international financial reporting standards net asset value (NAV) of US$8.44 per unit.

This is because Echelon predicts near-term “incremental impairment of certain assets in the trust’s Northeast markets, where operations remain challenged due to regulatory issues delaying evictions and collections.”

Strategic Review Underway

The REIT’s board of trustees, in fact, may decide, during its strategic review, to dispose of some assets. The objective of the review is to “identify, evaluate and pursue potential strategic alternatives aimed at maximizing unitholder value,” Chrystal relayed.

Other options under consideration include effecting some type of merger or acquisition, privatizing, and changing the business to a real estate merchant bank or value-add model.

“Given the current capital market environment, a significant NAV discount is likely to persist under the trust’s current structure,” wrote Chrystal.

Distributions Paused

The analyst pointed out that while the review, in progress, is taking place, distributions by the REIT are and will remain on hold.

“A quarterly review will determine if the trust will allocate capital to unitholder distributions, unit repurchases, or reinvestment,” Chrystal added.

Echelon maintained its Buy rating on the First Capital Apartment REIT.

Disclosures:
1) Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures For Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., Firm Capital Apartment REIT, November 15, 2022

Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is a member of IIROC and CIPF. The documents on this website have been prepared for the viewer only as an example of strategy consistent with our recommendations; it is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular investing strategy. Any opinions or recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. cannot accept any trading instructions via e-mail as the timely receipt of e-mail messages, or their integrity over the Internet, cannot be guaranteed. Dividend yields change as stock prices change, and companies may change or cancel dividend payments in the future. All securities involve varying amounts of risk, and their values will fluctuate, and the fluctuation of foreign currency exchange rates will also impact your investment returns if measured in Canadian Dollars. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value and you may lose money. Data from various sources were used in the preparation of these documents; the information is believed but in no way warranted to be reliable, accurate and appropriate. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. employees may buy and sell shares of the companies that are recommended for their own accounts and for the accounts of other clients.

Echelon Wealth Partners compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of Echelon Wealth Partners including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales and Corporate and Investment Banking.

U.S. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and is not be subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. Any resulting transactions should be effected through a U.S. broker-dealer.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Company: Firm Capital Apartment REIT | FCA.U-TSXV

I, David Chrystal, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report.

Financial News Real Estate Stock Market News

02 Dec

Darknet markets generate millions in revenue selling stolen personal data, supply chain study finds

By Christian Jordan Howell, University of South Florida and David Maimon, Georgia State University

It is common to hear news reports about large data breaches, but what happens once your personal data is stolen? Our research shows that, like most legal commodities, stolen data products flow through a supply chain consisting of producers, wholesalers and consumers. But this supply chain involves the interconnection of multiple criminal organizations operating in illicit underground marketplaces.

The stolen data supply chain begins with producers – hackers who exploit vulnerable systems and steal sensitive information such as credit card numbers, bank account information and Social Security numbers. Next, the stolen data is advertised by wholesalers and distributors who sell the data. Finally, the data is purchased by consumers who use it to commit various forms of fraud, including fraudulent credit card transactions, identity theft and phishing attacks.

This trafficking of stolen data between producers, wholesalers and consumers is enabled by darknet markets, which are websites that resemble ordinary e-commerce websites but are accessible only using special browsers or authorization codes.

We found several thousand vendors selling tens of thousands of stolen data products on 30 darknet markets. These vendors had more than US$140 million in revenue over an eight-month period.

Horizontal left-to-right flowchart with four segments — The stolen data supply chain, from data theft to fraud.
Christian Jordan Howell, CC BY-ND

Darknet markets

Just like traditional e-commerce sites, darknet markets provide a platform for vendors to connect with potential buyers to facilitate transactions. Darknet markets, though, are notorious for the sale of illicit products. Another key distinction is that access to darknet markets requires the use of special software such as the Onion Router, or TOR, which provides security and anonymity.

Silk Road, which emerged in 2011, combined TOR and bitcoin to become the first known darknet market. The market was eventually seized in 2013, and the founder, Ross Ulbricht, was sentenced to two life sentences plus 40 years without the possibility of parole. Ulbricht’s hefty prison sentence did not appear to have the intended deterrent effect. Multiple markets emerged to fill the void and, in doing so, created a thriving ecosystem profiting from stolen personal data.

Screenshot of a webpage showing a product for sale — Example of a stolen data ‘product’ sold on a darknet market.
Screenshot by Christian Jordan Howell, CC BY-ND

Stolen data ecosystem

Recognizing the role of darknet markets in trafficking stolen data, we conducted the largest systematic examination of stolen data markets that we are aware of to better understand the size and scope of this illicit online ecosystem. To do this, we first identified 30 darknet markets advertising stolen data products.

Next, we extracted information about stolen data products from the markets on a weekly basis for eight months, from Sept. 1, 2020, through April 30, 2021. We then used this information to determine the number of vendors selling stolen data products, the number of stolen data products advertised, the number of products sold and the amount of revenue generated.

In total, there were 2,158 vendors who advertised at least one of the 96,672 product listings across the 30 marketplaces. Vendors and product listings were not distributed equally across markets. On average, marketplaces had 109 unique vendor aliases and 3,222 product listings related to stolen data products. Marketplaces recorded 632,207 sales across these markets, which generated $140,337,999 in total revenue. Again, there is high variation across the markets. On average, marketplaces had 26,342 sales and generated $5,847,417 in revenue.

Graphic with a silhouette representing a person and a dollar sign — The size and scope of the stolen data ecosystem over an eight-month period.
Christian Jordan Howell, CC BY-ND

After assessing the aggregate characteristics of the ecosystem, we analyzed each of the markets individually. In doing so, we found that a handful of markets were responsible for trafficking most of the stolen data products. The three largest markets – Apollon, WhiteHouse and Agartha – contained 58% of all vendors. The number of listings ranged from 38 to 16,296, and the total number of sales ranged from 0 to 237,512. The total revenue of markets also varied substantially during the 35-week period: It ranged from $0 to $91,582,216 for the most successful market, Agartha.

For comparison, most midsize companies operating in the U.S. earn between $10 million and $1 billion annually. Both Agartha and Cartel earned enough revenue within the 35-week period we tracked them to be characterized as midsize companies, earning $91.6 million and $32.3 million, respectively. Other markets like Aurora, DeepMart and WhiteHouse were also on track to reach the revenue of a midsize company if given a full year to earn.

Our research details a thriving underground economy and illicit supply chain enabled by darknet markets. As long as data is routinely stolen, there are likely to be marketplaces for the stolen information.

These darknet markets are difficult to disrupt directly, but efforts to thwart customers of stolen data from using it offers some hope. We believe that advances in artificial intelligence can provide law enforcement agencies, financial institutions and others with information needed to prevent stolen data from being used to commit fraud. This could stop the flow of stolen data through the supply chain and disrupt the underground economy that profits from your personal data.

About the Author:

Christian Jordan Howell, Assistant Professor in Cybercrime, University of South Florida and David Maimon, Professor of Criminal Justice and Criminology, Georgia State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

02 Dec

Murrey Math Lines 02.12.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken through the ascending trendline downwards. Hence, we should expect a test of 3/8 (84.38), a breakaway of it, and falling to the support level of 2/8 (81.25). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 4/8 (87.50). In this case, the quotes may rise to 5/8 (90.62).

On M15, further decline of the price can be signaled by a breakaway of the lower line of VoltyChannel.

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes have broken through the 200-day Moving Average and rest above it, which indicates possible development of an uptrend. The RSI has bounced off the ascending trendline and continues going upwards. Hence, we should expect further growth of the quotes to the nearest resistance level of 3/8 (4218.8). The scenario can be cancelled by a downwards breakaway of the support level of 2/8 (4062.5). This might entail further falling of the quotes to 1/8 (3906.2).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probability of price growth to 3/8 (4218.8) on H4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Energy Financial News

02 Dec

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 02.12.2022 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern. Currently, the pair may go by the signal in a correctional wave. The goal of the pullback will be 1.0435. However, the pair might grow to 1.0650, break through the level, and continue the uptrend without any correction to the support level.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, at the support level, the pair has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair may go by the signal in the form of an ascending wave. The goal of the correction will be 136.65. However, the price might fall to 134.00 and continue the downtrend without any correction to the resistance level.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

On H4, the pair has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair may go by the signal in yet another ascending wave. The goal of the growth can be the resistance level of 0.8655. Upon testing it and bouncing off it, the price will get a chance for continuing the downtrend. However, the quotes may drop to 0.8570 without pulling back to the resistance level.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.02

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0405
Prev Close: 1.0525
% chg. over the last day: +1.15 %

Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed a decline from 47.3 to 47.1. Data for European countries were mixed. Germany posted a decline from 46.7 to 46.2, France showed a decline from 49.1 to 48.3, but Spain’s PMI rose from 44.7 to 45.7, and Italy also saw an increase from 46.5 to 48.4. The unemployment rate in Europe declined from 6.6% to 6.5%. A strong labor market is room for the ECB to act more aggressively, but a drop in overall business activity is a sign of rate pressure on the economy. Therefore, the ECB is likely to choose a less aggressive path, especially given the fact that there are signs of slowing inflation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.04554, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
Resistance levels: 1.0504, 1.0562

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, without any signs of reversal but with signs of overbuying. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0455, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0504 or 1.0562, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0284 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.02:

– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 04:40 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2055
Prev Close: 1.2255
% chg. over the last day: +1.65 %

The UK Manufacturing Business Activity Index is starting to show small signs of recovery. Whether this is a temporary spike in activity in the run-up to the holidays or whether it is consistent growth, data will show next month. For now, the British pound is rising on the back of a declining dollar index. Data from retail traders show that about 35% have a net long position, and the ratio of short to long traders is 1.87:1. Usually, analysts take the opposite view of the “crowd” sentiment. The fact that traders are closing short positions suggests that GBP/USD prices may continue to rise.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2154, 1.2016, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2254, 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there are signs of overbuying. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2154, but with confirmation. It is better to look for sell deals on intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.2254, but it is also better with confirmation because the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1900 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today:

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 138.02
Prev Close: 135.33
% chg. over the last day: -1.98 %

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said Friday that the bank expects inflation in Japan to start slowing in 2023. That suggests the Bank of Japan won’t change its soft monetary policy until at least the spring of 2023, when Mr. Kuroda’s term ends. The Japanese yen is now strengthening only at the expense of the dollar index on the back of the fact that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.20, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.65, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but on the higher time frames, a divergence is formed, which indicates a certain weakness of the sellers. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on the intraday time frames from the support level of 135.20, but only with confirmation. There is none at the moment. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 136.65 or 139.09, provided there is a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 140.75, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.02:

– Japan BoJ Kuroda Speaks at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3424
Prev Close: 1.3431
% chg. over the last day: +0.05 %

Canada’s manufacturing economy remained in contractionary territory in November, but only because the rate of decline in output and new orders slowed compared to October. But overall, there are signs of an improving business climate. The Industrial PMI rose from 48.8 to 49.6 and is as close to 50 as possible. Values above 50 mean that the economy is recovering.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3479, 1.3522, 1.3658, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price is close to changing the priority. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is weak. The deals to buy should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386 or 1.3360, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3479 but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.02:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Dec

EU governments have set a price ceiling for Russian oil. NFP report in the spotlight today

By JustMarkets

The US stock market traded mixed yesterday ahead of the monthly jobs report due today. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.08% at the stock market’s close yesterday, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.13% on Thursday.

Investors are cautiously awaiting the release of key monthly US employment data, which could affect the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The monthly employment data is expected to show that the economy created fewer jobs in November than in the previous month. Treasury yields fell sharply yesterday on concerns that the economy could face a deeper recession next year, despite early signs of declining consumer inflation. Although data on Thursday showed that the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, remains well above (6%) the Central Bank’s target range (2%).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.65%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.23%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.53%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Thursday down by 0.19%.

In a speech in Thailand, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that central banks should work to get the Consumer Price Index back to target levels. But monetary policy is complicated by the uncertainty resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ms. Lagarde also added that the fiscal policies of some European governments may lead to excess demand and that fiscal and monetary policies must work in sync to ensure sustainable and balanced economic growth.

Oil prices traded mixed Thursday as worrisome US production data and uncertainty over the course of OPEC+ actions restrained the market. European Union governments have tentatively agreed to set a ceiling on Russian oil at $60 a barrel, which is also restraining oil bulls.

Gold hit a 5-month high on rising hopes of a slowdown in the pace of Fed rate hikes. Gold futures yesterday at $1,815.20 an ounce. Silver, which often follows gold, also rose sharply. The December through February period is a seasonally stronger time for precious metals, so there are many positives here.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.92% on the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.75%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 0.96%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda indicated that a gradual slowdown in global rate increases and gradual growth of the global economy is expected. Global inflation is also expected to exceed the 2021 level in 2022 and then decline in 2023, a forecast that applies to Japan as well.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe, speaking at an event in Thailand, pointed out that inflation expectations remain firmly entrenched. However, household spending in Australia is still resilient to higher interest rates. Lowe added that the Reserve Bank of Australia is trying to slow inflation without much negative impact on the economy. Still, this cycle of high rates will be longer than previous ones.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,076.57 −3.54 (−0.087%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,395.01 −194.76 (−0.56%)

DAX (DE40) 14,490.30 +93.26 (+0.65%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,558.49 −14.56 (−0.19%)

USD Index 104.71 −1.24 (−1.17%)

Important events for today:

– Japan BoJ Kuroda Speaks at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 04:40 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 04:40 (GMT+3);
– New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 06:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

02 Dec

Week Ahead: Big Week For Oil Markets…

By ForexTime

Fasten your seatbelts because the next few days could be wild for oil markets.

The global commodity may be injected with fresh volatility due to not only the OPEC+ meeting but developments revolving around European Union sanctions on Russian oil. Other factors like geopolitical risks, economic data and overall sentiment may play an important role in shaping the global commodities outlook for the rest of 2022.

Before we tackle what to expect from oil as December gets in full swing, here are the scheduled economic data releases/events in the coming week:

Sunday, 4 December

OIL: OPEC+ virtual meeting

Monday, 5 December

CNH: China Caixin services PMI
OIL: EU ban on Russian crude
EUR: S&P Global PMI, Eurozone retail sales, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
USD: US factory orders, durable goods, ISM services index

Tuesday, 6 December

AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
EUR: Germany factory orders, S&P Global PMI
USD: US trade data

Wednesday, 7 December

EUR: Eurozone GDP, Germany industrial production
CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
OIL: EIA crude oil inventory report
USD: MBA mortgage applications

Thursday, 8 December

JPY: Japan GDP
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
USD: US initial jobless claims

Friday, 9 December

CNH: China Inflation, PPI, money supply
USD: US PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
FIFA World Cup quarterfinal matches

Oil prices nosedived in November as concerns that a rebound in Covid-19 cases in China would hit demand. Rising US stock pilled rubbed salt into the wound with Brent shedding almost 10% last month. Nevertheless, both Crude and Brent are still up roughly 10% year-to-date and could be supported by the key risk events and data releases over the next few days.

Over the weekend, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Co. including Russia are expected to leave production unchanged after the group changed its meeting to an online format. This move comes after the cartel agreed in early October to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November despite calls from the United States to pump more oil. The decision to leave production unchanged is based on the growing uncertainty over China’s demand outlook and the looming price cap on Russian crude exports. However, any unexpected decisions could result in explosive volatility in oil markets.

It’s all about the upcoming sanctions on Russian oil which are expected to start on Monday 5th December. Back in June, the EU agreed to ban the purchase of Russian crude in an attempt to limit its earnings – ultimately impacting Moscow’s budget. According to Bloomberg, the EU is closing in a deal to cap Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel before the Monday deadline. Should this deal go through, it could have uncertain effects on the price of oil as concerns over lost supply through the price cap clash with fears over a gloomy demand outlook. Whatever the outcome on Sunday and Monday, it will most likely set the tone for oil as 2022 slowly comes to an end.

Looking at the technical picture, Brent remains under pressure on the daily charts with prices respecting a bearish channel. Should prices push back below $87 this could encourage a decline back toward $82.50 and $80.00. Alternatively, a strong breakout above $90.00 may open the doors towards $95.00 – a level above the 100-day SMA.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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