InvestMacro

COT Bonds Speculators drop 5-Year Treasury bets to 215-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

5-Year, 10-Year drops lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (65,490 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (17,631 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-129,257 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-72,434 contracts), the Fed Funds (-46,249 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-27,703 contracts), the Long US Bond (-11,444 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-6,362 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the further decrease in speculator positions for the 5-Year Bonds market. The large speculator position in 5-Year Bonds futures fell this week by the largest one-week amount (-129,257 contracts) since February and have now dropped for the third time out of the past four weeks (a total decline of -159,151 contracts over last 4-week period). This weakness in speculator bets for the 5-Year Bond has brought the overall level to its most bearish point of the past 215 weeks. The last time the 5-Year Bond bets were this bearish was October 23rd of 2018 with a total of -773,639 contracts at that time. Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond future prices have come off their November lows and touched their highest level since September this week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,263,670	0	-1,643,862	23	1,944,031	76	-300,169	38
FedFunds	1,323,028	31	-78,867	30	87,745	71	-8,878	37
2-Year	2,109,988	15	-534,540	8	529,893	91	4,647	54
Long T-Bond	1,170,663	37	-115,361	47	90,700	43	24,661	72
10-Year	3,775,431	49	-369,206	16	483,149	79	-113,943	53
5-Year	4,130,322	59	-658,606	0	770,224	100	-111,618	50

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) leads the bonds category.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent), the 2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.3 percent)
Eurodollar (22.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (21.7 percent)

Eurodollar tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (4.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent), the 5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent), the Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-28.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
Eurodollar (4.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,643,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 65,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,709,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	69.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	42.6	9.0
– Net Position:	-1,643,862	1,944,031	-300,169
– Gross Longs:	548,998	5,041,684	353,408
– Gross Shorts:	2,192,860	3,097,653	653,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	75.8	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-1.0	-43.2

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -78,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -46,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.6	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	2.9
– Net Position:	-78,867	87,745	-8,878
– Gross Longs:	114,699	1,039,303	30,010
– Gross Shorts:	193,566	951,558	38,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	18.5	-3.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -534,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -528,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	82.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	56.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-534,540	529,893	4,647
– Gross Longs:	171,760	1,730,674	174,708
– Gross Shorts:	706,300	1,200,781	170,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	90.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	16.4	34.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -658,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -129,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -529,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	85.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	67.0	10.1
– Net Position:	-658,606	770,224	-111,618
– Gross Longs:	229,001	3,537,413	303,580
– Gross Shorts:	887,607	2,767,189	415,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	25.5	-7.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -369,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -72,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -296,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	77.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	64.4	11.9
– Net Position:	-369,206	483,149	-113,943
– Gross Longs:	423,994	2,914,741	336,179
– Gross Shorts:	793,200	2,431,592	450,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	79.3	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	22.1	-15.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.9	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	64.5	17.2
– Net Position:	-106,952	189,505	-82,553
– Gross Longs:	142,263	1,099,122	160,187
– Gross Shorts:	249,215	909,617	242,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	88.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.8	-1.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.7	79.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.7	12.7
– Net Position:	-115,361	90,700	24,661
– Gross Longs:	55,349	930,571	173,282
– Gross Shorts:	170,710	839,871	148,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	42.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	15.3	-3.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -371,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -389,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.9	83.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	61.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-371,773	317,929	53,844
– Gross Longs:	56,272	1,193,551	168,437
– Gross Shorts:	428,045	875,622	114,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	68.3	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.8	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Corn bullish bets to 19-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (19,835 contracts) with Cocoa (8,266 contracts), Sugar (4,089 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,409 contracts), Soybeans (2,453 contracts), Cotton (2,140 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,229 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-71,867 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-37,543 contracts), Wheat (-6,592 contracts) and Coffee (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent drop in Corn‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn decreased sharply this week and by the largest one-week amount since 2018 with a -71,867 contract decline. Overall, Corn bets have now fallen by -142,413 net speculator contracts in just the past five weeks, going from a total of +340,788 contracts on November 1st to a total of +198,375 contracts this week. This week’s total is the least bullish level in the past nineteen weeks, dating back to July 26th.

Corn futures prices have been in retreat since peaking in April of this year as the front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over 644’0. This is down almost 20 percent from the April peak, however, Corn does remain in an uptrend on the weekly charts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (56.9 percent) and Corn (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (1.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.6 percent)
Sugar (56.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (55.5 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (38.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (37.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (48.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.5 percent)
Live Cattle (48.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.1 percent)
Cotton (21.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (34.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.4 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Sugar leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Sugar (24.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (19.3 percent), Soybeans (10.3 percent) and Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-29.9 percent) and Wheat (-26.4 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week. The next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-16.8 percent), Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) and Cotton (-4.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.4 percent)
Sugar (24.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.1 percent)
Coffee (-29.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-38.9 percent)
Soybeans (10.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-1.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.6 percent)
Cotton (-4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.2 percent)
Cocoa (19.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.5 percent)
Wheat (-26.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-29.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 198,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -71,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	48.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	61.2	13.2
– Net Position:	198,375	-157,536	-40,839
– Gross Longs:	315,270	597,177	121,431
– Gross Shorts:	116,895	754,713	162,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	49.5	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	16.5	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 183,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	70.6	5.5
– Net Position:	183,124	-226,066	42,942
– Gross Longs:	282,673	396,317	91,614
– Gross Shorts:	99,549	622,383	48,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.3	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.5	-24.7	18.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	54.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	48.4	3.8
– Net Position:	-14,642	12,907	1,735
– Gross Longs:	40,476	111,365	9,524
– Gross Shorts:	55,118	98,458	7,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.9	28.8	-3.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 89,661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	51.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	60.9	12.1
– Net Position:	89,661	-59,882	-29,779
– Gross Longs:	160,518	319,120	45,508
– Gross Shorts:	70,857	379,002	75,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	71.3	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-8.0	-13.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -37,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	47.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	66,311	-78,867	12,556
– Gross Longs:	106,474	204,193	36,717
– Gross Shorts:	40,163	283,060	24,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.6	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	17.0	-0.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 122,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	37.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	74.4	7.3
– Net Position:	122,174	-141,761	19,587
– Gross Longs:	140,034	147,251	47,971
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	289,012	28,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.5	9.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-0.3	-28.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	32.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	50.6	12.3
– Net Position:	55,263	-52,026	-3,237
– Gross Longs:	108,912	95,851	32,667
– Gross Shorts:	53,649	147,877	35,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	42.0	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.3	-3.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	35.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.9	12.6
– Net Position:	38,908	-28,396	-10,512
– Gross Longs:	76,849	67,376	13,694
– Gross Shorts:	37,941	95,772	24,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	62.5	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.4	-2.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	47.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	57.8	5.3
– Net Position:	18,720	-20,658	1,938
– Gross Longs:	64,807	92,047	12,243
– Gross Shorts:	46,087	112,705	10,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	78.5	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	3.5	6.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	47.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	55.8	3.1
– Net Position:	17,964	-21,713	3,749
– Gross Longs:	83,808	122,383	11,758
– Gross Shorts:	65,844	144,096	8,009
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	66.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-21.1	17.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	40.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	27.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-39,897	42,820	-2,923
– Gross Longs:	95,846	135,857	34,182
– Gross Shorts:	135,743	93,037	37,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	27.0	21.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

09 Dec

Ada Lovelace’s skills with language, music and needlepoint contributed to her pioneering work in computing

By Corinna Schlombs, Rochester Institute of Technology

Ada Lovelace, known as the first computer programmer, was born on Dec. 10, 1815, more than a century before digital electronic computers were developed.

Lovelace has been hailed as a model for girls in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM). A dozen biographies for young audiences were published for the 200th anniversary of her birth in 2015. And in 2018, The New York Times added hers as one of the first “missing obituaries” of women at the rise of the #MeToo movement.

Ada King, Countess of Lovelace, was more than just another mathematician.
Watercolor portrait of Ada King, Countess of Lovelace by Alfred Edward Chalon via Wikimedia

But Lovelace – properly Ada King, Countess of Lovelace after her marriage – drew on many different fields for her innovative work, including languages, music and needlecraft, in addition to mathematical logic. Recognizing that her well-rounded education enabled her to accomplish work that was well ahead of her time, she can be a model for all students, not just girls.

Lovelace was the daughter of the scandal-ridden romantic poet George Gordon Byron, aka Lord Byron, and his highly educated and strictly religious wife Anne Isabella Noel Byron, known as Lady Byron. Lovelace’s parents separated shortly after her birth. At a time when women were not allowed to own property and had few legal rights, her mother managed to secure custody of her daughter.

Growing up in a privileged aristocratic family, Lovelace was educated by home tutors, as was common for girls like her. She received lessons in French and Italian, music and in suitable handicrafts such as embroidery. Less common for a girl in her time, she also studied math. Lovelace continued to work with math tutors into her adult life, and she eventually corresponded with mathematician and logician Augustus De Morgan at London University about symbolic logic.

antique black-and-white photograph of a woman in an elaborate outfit — A rare photograph of Ada Lovelace.
Daguerreotype by Antoine Claudet via Wikimedia

Lovelace’s algorithm

Lovelace drew on all of these lessons when she wrote her computer program – in reality, it was a set of instructions for a mechanical calculator that had been built only in parts.

The computer in question was the Analytical Engine designed by mathematician, philosopher and inventor Charles Babbage. Lovelace had met Babbage when she was introduced to London society. The two related to each other over their shared love for mathematics and fascination for mechanical calculation. By the early 1840s, Babbage had won and lost government funding for a mathematical calculator, fallen out with the skilled craftsman building the precision parts for his machine, and was close to giving up on his project. At this point, Lovelace stepped in as an advocate.

To make Babbage’s calculator known to a British audience, Lovelace proposed to translate into English an article that described the Analytical Engine. The article was written in French by the Italian mathematician Luigi Menabrea and published in a Swiss journal. Scholars believe that Babbage encouraged her to add notes of her own.

Ada Lovelace envisioned in the early 19th century the possibilities of computing.

In her notes, which ended up twice as long as the original article, Lovelace drew on different areas of her education. Lovelace began by describing how to code instructions onto cards with punched holes, like those used for the Jacquard weaving loom, a device patented in 1804 that used punch cards to automate weaving patterns in fabric.

Having learned embroidery herself, Lovelace was familiar with the repetitive patterns used for handicrafts. Similarly repetitive steps were needed for mathematical calculations. To avoid duplicating cards for repetitive steps, Lovelace used loops, nested loops and conditional testing in her program instructions.

The notes included instructions on how to calculate Bernoulli numbers, which Lovelace knew from her training to be important in the study of mathematics. Her program showed that the Analytical Engine was capable of performing original calculations that had not yet been performed manually. At the same time, Lovelace noted that the machine could only follow instructions and not “originate anything.”

a yellowed sheet of paper with spreadsheet-like lines — Ada Lovelace created this chart for the individual program steps to calculate Bernoulli numbers.
Courtesy of Linda Hall Library of Science, Engineering & Technology, CC BY-ND

Finally, Lovelace recognized that the numbers manipulated by the Analytical Engine could be seen as other types of symbols, such as musical notes. An accomplished singer and pianist, Lovelace was familiar with musical notation symbols representing aspects of musical performance such as pitch and duration, and she had manipulated logical symbols in her correspondence with De Morgan. It was not a large step for her to realize that the Analytical Engine could process symbols — not just crunch numbers — and even compose music.

A well-rounded thinker

Inventing computer programming was not the first time Lovelace brought her knowledge from different areas to bear on a new subject. For example, as a young girl, she was fascinated with flying machines. Bringing together biology, mechanics and poetry, she asked her mother for anatomical books to study the function of bird wings. She built and experimented with wings, and in her letters, she metaphorically expressed her longing for her mother in the language of flying.

Despite her talents in logic and math, Lovelace didn’t pursue a scientific career. She was independently wealthy and never earned money from her scientific pursuits. This was common, however, at a time when freedom – including financial independence – was equated with the capability to impartially conduct scientific experiments. In addition, Lovelace devoted just over a year to her only publication, the translation of and notes on Menabrea’s paper about the Analytical Engine. Otherwise, in her life cut short by cancer at age 37, she vacillated between math, music, her mother’s demands, care for her own three children, and eventually a passion for gambling. Lovelace thus may not be an obvious model as a female scientist for girls today.

However, I find Lovelace’s way of drawing on her well-rounded education to solve difficult problems inspirational. True, she lived in an age before scientific specialization. Even Babbage was a polymath who worked in mathematical calculation and mechanical innovation. He also published a treatise on industrial manufacturing and another on religious questions of creationism.

But Lovelace applied knowledge from what we today think of as disparate fields in the sciences, arts and the humanities. A well-rounded thinker, she created solutions that were well ahead of her time.

About the Author:

Corinna Schlombs, Associate Professor of History, Rochester Institute of Technology

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

09 Dec

China’s new space station opens for business in an increasingly competitive era of space activity

By Eytan Tepper, Indiana University and Scott Shackelford, Indiana University

The International Space Station is no longer the only place where humans can live in orbit.

On Nov. 29, 2022, the Shenzhou 15 mission launched from China’s Gobi Desert carrying three taikonauts – the Chinese word for astronauts. Six hours later, they reached their destination, China’s recently completed space station, called Tiangong, which means “heavenly palace” in Mandarin. The three taikonauts replaced the existing crew that helped wrap up construction. With this successful mission, China has become just the third nation to operate a permanent space station.

China’s space station is an achievement that solidifies the country’s position alongside the U.S. and Russia as one of the world’s top three space powers. As scholars of space law and space policy who lead the Indiana University Ostrom Workshop’s Space Governance Program, we have been following the development of the Chinese space station with interest.

Unlike the collaborative, U.S.-led International Space Station, Tiangong is entirely built and run by China. The successful opening of the station is the beginning of some exciting science. But the station also highlights the country’s policy of self-reliance and is an important step for China toward achieving larger space ambitions among a changing landscape of power dynamics in space.

A diagram of the space station. — The Tiangong space station is much smaller than the International Space Station and consists of three modules.
Shujianyang/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Capabilities of a Chinese station

The Tiangong space station is the culmination of three decades of work on the Chinese manned space program. The station is 180 feet (55 meters) long and is comprised of three modules that were launched separately and connected in space. These include one core module where a maximum of six taikonauts can live and two experiment modules for a total of 3,884 cubic feet (110 cubic meters) of space, about one-fifth the size of the International Space Station. The station also has an external robotic arm, which can support activities and experiments outside the station, and three docking ports for resupply vehicles and manned spacecraft.

Like China’s aircraft carriers and other spacecraft, Tiangong is based on a Soviet-era design – it is pretty much a copy of the Soviet Mir space station from the 1980s. But the Tiangong station has been heavily modernized and improved.

The Chinese space station is slated to stay in orbit for 15 years, with plans to send two six-month crewed missions and two cargo missions to it annually. The science experiments have already begun, with a planned study involving monkey reproduction commencing in the station’s biological test cabinets. Whether the monkeys will cooperate is an entirely different matter.

Science and a steppingstone

The main function of the Tiangong station is to perform research on life in space. There is a particular focus on learning about the growth and development of different types of plants, animals and microorganisms, and there are more than 1,000 experiments planned for the next 10 years.

Tiangong is strictly Chinese made and managed, but China has an open invitation for other nations to collaborate on experiments aboard Tiangong. So far, nine projects from 17 countries have been selected.

Although the new station is small compared to the 16 modules of the International Space Station, Tiangong and the science done aboard will help support China’s future space missions. In December 2023, China is planning to launch a new space telescope called Xuntian. This telescope will map stars and supermassive black holes among other projects with a resolution about the same as the Hubble Space Telescope but with a wider view. The telescope will periodically dock with the station for maintenance.

China also has plans to launch multiple missions to Mars and nearby comets and asteroids with the goal of bringing samples back to Earth. And perhaps most notably, China has announced plans to build a joint Moon base with Russia – though no timeline for this mission has been set.

The three-person crew of taikonauts greets the crew already aboard the Tiangong station in early December 2022.

Astropolitics

A new era in space is unfolding. The Tiangong station is beginning its life just as the International Space Station, after more than 30 years in orbit, is set to be decommissioned by 2030.

The International Space Station is the classic example of collaborative ideals in space – even at the height of the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union came together to develop and launch the beginnings of the space station in the early 1990s. By comparison, China and the U.S. have not been so jovial in their orbital dealings.

In the 1990s, when China was still launching U.S. satellites into orbit, concerns emerged that China was accidentally acquiring – or stealing – U.S. technology. These concern in part led to the Wolf Amendment, passed by Congress in 2011, which prohibits NASA from collaborating with China in any capacity. China’s space program was not mature enough to be part of the construction of the International Space Station in the 1990s and early 2000s. By the time China had the ability to contribute to the International Space Station, the Wolf Amendment prevented it from doing so.

It remains to be seen how the map of space collaboration will change in the coming years. The U.S.-led Artemis Program that aims to build a self-sustaining habitat on the Moon is open to all nations, and 19 countries have joined as partners so far. China has also recently opened its joint Moon mission with Russia to other nations. This was partly driven by cooling Chinese-Russian relations but also due to the fact that because of the war in Ukraine, Sweden, France and the European Space Agency canceled planned missions with Russia.

As tensions on Earth rise between China, Russia and the West, and some of that jockeying spills over into space, it remains to be seen how the decommissioning of the International Space Station and operation of the Tiangong station will influence the China-U.S. relationship.

An event like the famous handshake between U.S. astronauts and Russian cosmonauts while orbiting Earth in 1975 is a long way off, but collaboration between the U.S. and China could do much to cool tensions on and above the Earth.

About the Author:

Eytan Tepper, Visiting Assistant Professor of Space Governance, Indiana University and Scott Shackelford, Professor of Business Law and Ethics, Indiana University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

09 Dec

Week Ahead: USD ready to rebound?

By ForexTime

Some of the world’s largest central banks are about to make their final rate decisions of the year, while offering their updated policy outlooks for 2023.

Throw into that mix: the latest inflation data out of major economies such as the US and the UK.

All that could make for some spicy market action, with FX pairs involving the US dollar, euro, and the British Pound perhaps feeling the burn going into 2023.

Here’s a list of the main economic data releases and events that could rock markets next week:

Monday, December 12

JPY: Japan November PPI
GBP: UK October monthly GDP, industrial production, manufacturing production

Tuesday, December 13

AUD: Australia November household spending, December consumer confidence
EUR: Germany November CPI (final print), December ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK October unemployment rate, November jobless claims
USD: US November CPI – consumer price index

Wednesday, December 14

GBP: UK November CPI
EUR: Eurozone October industrial production
USD: Fed rate decision
Crude: EIA weekly oil inventories

Thursday, December 15

NZD: New Zealand Q3 GDP
AUD: Australia November unemployment, December inflation expectations
CNH: China medium-term lending rate; November industrial production, retail sales, jobless rate
CHF: Swiss National Bank rate decision
NOK: Norway’s Norges Bank rate decision
GBP: Bank of England rate decision
EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
USD: US weekly initial jobless claims, November retail sales, industrial production

Friday, December 16

AUD: Australia December PMIs
GBP: UK November retail sales; December PMIs and consumer confidence
S&P 500: ‘Triple witching day’ for US markets
USD: Deadline for avoiding US government shutdown

Markets are widely expecting a 50-bps hike respectively by the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England.

Anything other than a 50bps hike would be a surprise for markets, and likely translating into shock moves for USD, EUR, and/or GBP currency pairs.

A 50bps adjustment would also mark a “downshift” for these big 3 central banks, who had each hiked by 75bps at their previous meetings.

Focus on the Fed

As always, the Fed remains front and centre, given that it’s the most influential central bank in the world.

Consider how the rest of the FX world has found some relief from the US dollar’s declines over the past couple of months.

That’s largely due to markets becoming increasingly hopeful the eventual “downshift” (opting for smaller-sized rate hikes) by the Fed.

Such expectations have halved the benchmark US Dollar index’s year-to-date gains, from as much as 20% now down to 9.3% at the time of writing.

Watch what central bankers say and do

Markets are ready to react not just to what these central banks will do to their respective benchmark rates next week, but also to what each of these central banks say about their intentions on rate adjustments in 2023.

These policy outlooks will of course be informed by the latest figures on inflation, which we know is enemy #1 for these central bankers.

Hence, if we do see a higher-than-7.3% US CPI print next week, that should pave the way for the Fed to keep hiking its benchmark rates for longer.

Such a narrative could fuel a rebound for the US dollar, especially if Fed Chair Jerome Powell can convince markets once more of the central bank’s ultra-hawkish intentions.

Yet, we note that such a rebound for the greenback may prove limited and fleeting.

Looking back at the earlier DXY chart, the dollar’s rebound may be capped once more at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

From a fundamental perspective, the dollar’s rebound may run out of steam especially if markets persist with hopes on the eventual Fed “pivot”, despite what Powell may say to the contrary.

Brace for potentially imminent volatility

Overall, it remains to be seen which central bank can sound the most hawkish (intend to send its own benchmark rate higher) between the Fed, ECB, or the BOE.

And it’s the currency of that more-hawkish central bank that may outperform next week, and through year-end.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

09 Dec

Murrey Math Lines 09.12.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

On H4, the quotes of Brent oil are below the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of a downtrend. However, the RSI is already in the oversold area. A test of 0/8 (75.00) should be expected, followed by a bounce off it and growth to the resistance level of 2/8 (81.25). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 0/8 (75.00). In the case, the quotes may fall to -1/8 (71.88).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is too far away from the current price, which means growth of the quotes will be initiated by a bounce off 0/8 on H4.

S&P 500

On H4, the S&P 500 quotes have dropped under the 200-day Moving Average again, indicating a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In the end, a downward breakaway of the support level of 1/8 (3906.2) should be expected, followed by falling to 0/8 (3750.0). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8 (4062.5). This might lead to a trend reversal and growth of the quotes to 3/8 (4218.8).

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower line of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Stock Market News

09 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.09

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0504
Prev Close: 1.0554
% chg. over the last day: +0.47 %

Initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level since February, indicating that unemployed people need more time to find work. These are the first signs that the US labor market is beginning to “cool down,” which will affect the Fed’s monetary policy toward slowing the rate hikes. The end of the tightening cycle is close.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0584, 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines, the MACD indicator is positive again, and buyers’ pressure remains. But now that the price has reached the resistance level, a pullback is possible. It is better to consider buy deals from the support level of 1.0483 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0584, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0332 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.09:

– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2199
Prev Close: 1.2236
% chg. over the last day: +0.30 %

The Bank of England will raise the interest rate next week. Analysts are leaning that it will be a 50 bps increase, raising the bank rate to 3.50%. Further, the Bank of England is projected to add another 50 basis points in the first quarter of 2023 and 25 basis points in the second quarter, with medians showing that the bank rate will peak at 4.25%. The UK is almost certainly headed for recession, with economists giving an average 85% chance of a recession within a year. Quarterly forecasts suggest that the economy will contract by 0.4% this year, which fits the technical definition of a recession.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2177, 1.2016, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2279, 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the average lines. The MACD indicator returned to the positive zone, and there is a slight buying pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for from the support level of 1.2177, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2279 but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.1965 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.64
Prev Close: 136.67
% chg. over the last day: +0.02 %

According to the Japan Foreign Trade Council, Japan’s exports and imports hit a record high in fiscal 2022 in value terms after rising energy prices and a weaker yen. The country’s trade balance is expected to be negative for the third consecutive year. Imports and exports will rise only slightly, while in value terms, they will both be markedly higher due to higher prices. This suggests that the Bank of Japan will continue to stimulate the economy.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.33, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.42, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become negative, and sellers’ pressure is increasing. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 137.24, provided that there is a reverse reaction and change in the structure on the intraday time frames. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 135.33, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 138.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3654
Prev Close: 1.3591
% chg. over the last day: -0.46 %

The Bank of Canada made it clear this week that the price appreciation cycle is coming to an end as serious signs of slowing economic growth are emerging. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it faces further pressure as oil prices continue to decline, hitting new lows since the beginning of the year amid demand and recession fears. This has led investors to return to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3518, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3658, 1.3682, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become negative. The price is correcting. Buy trades should be considered after a slight pullback from the support level of 1.3518 or 1.3438, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3658 but with confirmation in the form of reverse.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Dec

The US labor market is beginning to cool down. China’s inflation is falling

By JustMarkets

The US indices rose on Thursday amid a technology sector recovery, despite rising Treasury bond yields. By Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.55%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.75%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.13% yesterday. All three indices closed on the plus side.

Initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level since February, an indication that unemployed people need more time to find work. These are the first signs that the labor market is beginning to “cool down,” which in turn will influence the Fed’s monetary policy to slow the pace of rate hikes. The end of the tightening cycle is close. The steep inversion of the Treasury yield curve is a harbinger of recession, which also raises the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will soon take a pause.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single trend. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.02%, French CAC 40 (FR 40) declined by 0.20%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.79%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Thursday down by 0.23%.

According to analysts, after underestimating the structural uptrend in inflation that began in 2017 amid an emerging labor shortage, the ECB now appears to be overestimating inflationary pressures. The slight decline in euro area inflation to 10% in November from 10.6% in October, largely due to lower oil prices, suggests that the worst of the inflation-induced shocks may be coming soon. So a 50 basis point rate hike on December 15 to 2.5% on the main refinancing rate makes sense. But it does not make sense to keep raising rates in 2023 because the winter recession in Europe will be disinflationary. Falling private consumption will play a big role in this downturn. Germany’s 2.8% monthly drop in retail sales in October may be a harbinger of recession.

Crude oil prices hit a near-one-year low on Thursday. Oil prices will continue to fall as President Vladimir Putin’s administration shows no serious signs of responding to the price cap, leading traders to believe that oil prices will eventually trade close to the $ 60-a-barrel limit.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.40%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up by 3.38%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 0.75%.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged compared to the previous month. November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 1.6% year-on-year from 2.1%. This data suggests that economic growth continues to weaken. Growth in the world’s second-largest economy has slowed this year, largely under the influence of uncompromising COVID-19 restrictions.

Australia’s economy is likely to slow in the second half of 2023. Analysts project the Australian economy to contract from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.0% in 2023. Household consumption is projected to decline from about 2% in the first half of 2023 to nearly zero in the second half. Inflation will be 3% lower in 2024 than the RBA’s current forecast of 3.25%, allowing the RBA to cut rates by about 100 basis points in late 2023 and early 2024. The sharp slowdown in economic growth in 2023 will be due in part to the RBA continuing to raise interest rates in the first half of 2023 as wage growth and inflation remain high.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,963.51 +29.59 (+0.75%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,781.48 +183.56 (+0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 14,264.56 +3.37 (+0.024%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,472.17 −17.02 (−0.23%)

USD Index 104.81 -0.29 (-0.28%)

Important events for today:

– China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Dec

Biotech Co.’s Shares Soar to New 52-Week High

Source: Streetwise Reports (12/7/22)

Prometheus Biosciences Inc. shares traded 170% higher to a new 52-week intraday high after the company reported positive results from two separate Phase 2 clinical studies for its PRA023, an anti-TL1A mAb used to treat inflammatory bowel disease. The company is actively planning to advance PRA023 into Phase 3 trials as a prospective treatment for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease in FY/23.

Prometheus Biosciences Inc.

Clinical-stage biotech company Prometheus Biosciences Inc. (RXDX:NASDAQ), which is engaged in the discovery, development, and commercialization of medicines for use in the treatment of immune-mediated diseases such as inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), today announced “results from its ARTEMIS-UC Phase 2 and APOLLO-CD Phase 2a studies of PRA023 demonstrating strong efficacy and favorable safety results in both studies.”

The firm advised that based upon the data collected during both of these independent Phase 2 trials, it plans to initiate discussions with regulators to move forward with two additional Phase 3 studies of PRA023 in FY/23 for the treatment of Crohn’s disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC).

Prometheus advised that in its Phase 2 ARTEMIS-UC trial, “PRA023 met the primary and all ranked secondary endpoints including clinical, endoscopic, histologic, and patient-reported outcome measures in the initial cohort (Cohort 1) of the trial.”

In the double-blind, randomized ARTEMIS-UC trial, 135 patients with moderate-to-severely active UC who did not respond to prior therapies were treated over a period of 12 weeks with either PRA023 or placebo. The topline data showed that 26.5% of patients on PRA023 successfully achieved the predetermined primary endpoint of clinical remission versus just 1.5% in the control group. Additionally, 36.8% of the patients who receive PRA023 met the key secondary endpoint of endoscopic improvement, compared to 6.0% for those who were administered a placebo.

RXDX shares opened almost 200% higher today at US$105.07 (+US$69.01, +191.38%) over yesterday’s US$36.06 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price this morning of US$111.99.

The firm also reported positive findings in its Phase 2a APOLLO-CD trial, which enrolled a total of 55 patients diagnosed with a moderate-to-severely active CD with endoscopically active disease who also had failed other standard treatment regimens.

Results from the APOLLO-CD study demonstrated that 26.0% of patients who received PRA023 achieved endoscopic response versus the historical average placebo rate of 12%. In addition, 49.1% of trial participants’ patients administered PRA023 achieved clinical remission, compared to the historical placebo group rate of 16%.

Prometheus Biosciences’ Chairman and CEO Mark McKenna commented, “We are beyond enthusiastic with these study results and what they could mean for patients suffering from IBD. The performance of PRA023 in both UC and Crohn’s patients has surpassed our expectations . . . We believe PRA023 and our precision medicine approach [have] the potential to change the paradigm of IBD treatment, and we look forward to discussions with regulatory agencies as we prepare to advance into Phase 3 studies in Ulcerative Colitis and Crohn’s Disease.”

The company’s Chief Medical Officer Allison Luo, M.D. remarked, “PRA023 has clearly demonstrated clinical proof-of-concept in CD and remarkable efficacy for the treatment of UC . . . We look forward to further evaluating PRA023 in Phase 3 studies with the goal of bringing this promising candidate to the market.”

The firm explained that “PRA023 is an IgG1 humanized monoclonal antibody that has been shown to block tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-like ligand 1A (TL1A).” The company indicated that PRA023 shows the potential to substantially improve outcomes for patients with moderate-to-severe IBD in those persons predisposed to increased TL1A expression. In addition to prospective uses in the treatment of UC and CD, Prometheus is also investigating and developing PRA023 for use in treating systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD).

Prometheus Biosciences is a clinical-stage biotechnology firm based in San Diego, Calif., that is focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel therapeutics to treat immune-mediated diseases. The firm has created a precision medicine platform called Prometheus360™, which utilizes machine learning technology to query gastrointestinal bioinformatics databases to identify potential new therapeutic targets. The firm’s activities were initially focused mostly on gastrointestinal (GI) diseases such as IBD, but it is now expanding its efforts to target other autoimmune diseases.

Prometheus Biosciences started off the day with a market cap of around US$1.51 billion, with approximately 41.94 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 11.6%. RXDX shares opened almost 200% higher today at US$105.07 (+US$69.01, +191.38%) over yesterday’s US$36.06 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price this morning of US$111.99. The stock has traded today between US$95.50 and US$111.99 per share and is currently trading at US$97.82 (+US$61.76, +171.27%).

Disclosures:

1) Stephen Hytha wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

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3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

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6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

Financial News Healthcare Stock Market News

08 Dec

60% stocks, 40% bonds? Ha!

So much for the conventional wisdom of the “balanced portfolio”

By Elliott Wave International

In his February 2022 book, Last Chance to Conquer the Crash, Robert Prechter said:

Countless advisors have counseled “diversification,” a “balanced portfolio” and other end-all solutions to the problem of allocating your investments. These approaches are delusional. … No investment strategy will provide stability forever.

That certainly has applied to the classic 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio this year.

On Oct. 14, a Reuters headline said:

’60/40′ Portfolios Are Facing Worst Returns in 100 Years: BofA

Of course, everyone knows that stocks are risky, but many investors expect bonds to provide a cushion in case equities slide into a downtrend. And, indeed, the stock market has been trending lower since January.

But bond prices have taken a hit, too. A BIG one. As you probably know, bonds prices decline when yields rise and that’s what’s taken place.

You may find it hard to believe, but Elliott wave patterns and sentiment readings in the bond markets warned of this. For example, the July 2021 Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication (since 1979) which analyzes financial markets and major cultural trends, showed this chart and said:

U.S. Treasury bill rates have edged closer and closer to zero for over a year. The complacency about the nonexistent T-bill yield in the face of unprecedented inflating by the government and the Fed is truly amazing. … The Fed’s cavalier inflating is borne of optimism. … When optimism and complacency finally melt like popsicles in the sun, the lines in [the chart] will turn up.

During that same month / year (July 2021), The New York Times ran this headline:

Federal Reserve Officials Project Rate Increases in 2023 [emphasis added]

This next chart of the 6-month U.S. Treasury bill yield, which published in the Nov. 18, 2022 Elliott Wave Theorist, shows what we all know: Rates began to turn up more than a year before 2023 and then soared higher.

The question now is: What’s next?

Elliott wave analysis answered this question before, and it can help you answer it now.

You can read more about what Elliott Wave Theorist editor, and EWI Founder, Robert Prechter expects next in the Special Report: Preparing for Difficult Times. The report is free — for a limited time — inside their “12 Days of Elliott” event. You need only join Club EWI to read it, along with 11 other fascinating resources, December 1-12.

You can join Club EWI without any cost or obligation. All the while, you’ll enjoy complimentary access to an abundance of Elliott wave resources on financial markets and investing.

Get started by following the link: 12 Days of Elliott — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline 60% stocks, 40% bonds? Ha!. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

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