InvestMacro

Brent Lost 11% Over Week

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The crude oil market keeps trying to stabilise but fails. Brent barrel started this week by an attempt to reach 76.55 USD.

On the whole, the probability of an equally fast decline looks limited. Nonetheless, investors may react negatively to the oil demand forecasts presented by OPEC and the IEA. However, market participants can use the fact that the Keystone Pipeline that delivers crude oil from Canada to the US is still laying idle.

According to Baker Hughes, the number of active drills in the US has dropped by 2 over a week, reaching 625 units.

On H4, Brent has reached the local goal of the wave of decline at 75.33. Today the market is forming a structure of a wave of growth to 89.40. A link of correction to 82.30 is expected, followed by growth to 101.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is headed strictly upwards to zero. A breakaway and further growth to new highs should follow.

On H1, Brent has formed the first impulse of growth to 77.00. A link of correction to 76.06 is not excluded. Then a new structure of growth is expected to develop to 78.78. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under 80, headed strictly down to 50. A bounce off it and growth back to 80 are expected.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

12 Dec

Trade Of The Week: Heavy Event Week To Trigger GBPUSD Breakout?

By ForexTime

Watch this space as the GBPUSD could enter into the holiday season with a bang!

Later this week, investors will be served a super combo of top-tier economic data and central bank meetings featuring not only the Federal Reserve (Fed) but European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE). With so much going on over the next few days, volatility could be the name across currency, commodity, and equity markets.

Our focus falls on the GBPUSD which is up roughly 10% quarter-to-date. After staging a powerful rebound back in late September, prices have been supported by fundamental and technical forces. With the dollar losing its grip on the FX throne as aggressive Fed rate hike bets cool, this has fuelled sterling’s upside gains. The currency pair is bullish and could experience a breakout with the right fundamental drivers. Before we discuss what to expect from the Fed and BoE this week, it is worth keeping in mind that the USD has depreciated against every single G10 currency since the start of Q4.

On the monthly charts, bulls seem to be stealing more control with prices currently testing a sticky level around 1.2300.

The same can be said on the weekly timeframe with 1.2300 just below the 50-week SMA. Nevertheless, prices are still bullish as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.

Whatever the outcome of the policy meetings between the two central banks, it most likely will set the tone for the GBPUSD for the rest of 2022.

What to expect from the Fed?

The Fed is widely expected to shift into lower gear on rates in December, hiking by 50 basis points compared to the 75-basis point increases they’ve undertaken over the last four policy meetings.

Indeed, signs of easing inflationary pressures have reduced the pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively. On top of this, such a move would be consistent with recent dovish speeches from Fed officials, including Jerome Powell. The million-dollar question is what the Fed does at its next policy meeting in February 2023. Jerome Powell’s press conference and information from the December meeting could provide investors with some important insight.

Before the heavily anticipated meeting on Wednesday, all eyes will be on the latest US inflation figures on Tuesday. Inflation is expected to have slowed to 7.3% in November compared to the 7.7% witnessed in October. A figure that meets or prints below expectations may further pare back interest rate hike bets, weakening the dollar. Alternatively, a hot print could result in the Fed raising rates for longer than anticipated – boosting dollar bulls as a result.

How about the BoE?

Markets widely expect the Bank of England to hike rates by a further 50 basis points this month.

Early signs of easing inflationary pressures have reduced the pressure for the BoE to move ahead with another jumbo 75 basis point rate hike. Indeed, the latest UK CPI data for November is expected to show inflation cooling to 10.9% on an annual basis. If expectations become reality, this may suggest that inflation may have peaked at 11.1% back in October. Nevertheless, inflation is still well above the central bank’s 2% target – forcing the BoE to continue raising interest rates in 2023.

It may be wise to keep a close eye on the latest UK jobs, retail sales and PMI figures which may offer additional insight into the health of the economy. But given how the UK economy is likely in recession, the central bank is trapped between a rock and a hard place on rates and economic growth. Ultimately, investors will closely observe the meeting for clues on the pace of future rate hikes in the New Year.

GBPUSD gearing to push higher?

A weaker dollar remains one of the major driving forces behind the GBPUSD’s upside momentum. However, prices remain within a minor range with support at 1.2120 and resistance at 1.2300.

The currency pair is firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and highs and higher lows. Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. A solid breakout and daily close above 1.2300 may open the doors towards 1.2460 and 1.2650. Alternately, a move back below 1.2120 (where the 200-day SMA resides) could signal a selloff towards 1.1900 and 1.1750, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Dec

Will price caps on coal and gas bring power prices down? An expert isn’t so sure

By Bruce Mountain, Victoria University

In a bid to arrest escalating power prices, Australia’s federal, state and territory governments have agreed to impose caps on the wholesale price of coal and gas.

Announcing the decision after National Cabinet met on Friday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said parliament would be recalled next week to pass the necessary legislation. He indicated there was enough crossbench support for this to be a formality.

There will also be $1.5 billion to subsidise electricity bills for households and small businesses. This will be administered by state and territory governments starting in April 2023, and for households it will be subject to means tests.

For the next year, coal used in Australia cannot be sold in wholesale markets for more than $125 a tonne. Gas used in Australia cannot be sold in wholesale markets for more than $12 a gigajoule.

At the time of writing, the short-term (spot) market price for coal at the Newcastle export terminal was $580 a tonne. Gas could be bought at the Wallumbilla hub near Brisbane for $22 a gigajoule.

With such a big gap between spot coal and gas prices and the announced caps, can we expect much lower gas and electricity prices?

In short, maybe or maybe not.

The aphorism “the devil is in the detail” is made for questions like this. This is because of the complex ways domestic coal and gas markets are linked to export markets, how supplies are contracted, and the lack of publicly available information on supply and demand in these markets.

Effect on coal price

The majority of Australia’s coal-fired electricity generators get their coal from nearby mines. Much of this coal cannot be exported, either because of its low quality (such as the brown coal of Victoria’s Latrobe Valley) or because the transport infrastructure doesn’t exist.

This “mine mouth” coal is therefore unaffected by export prices. Its price is based on extraction and delivery costs, plus a margin (of course). In all cases this is well below the $125 per tonne cap.

There are exceptions. Two of Queensland’s eight coal-fired generators – the government-owned Stanwell and the privately owned Gladstone – are supplied by mines able to divert some coal to export markets.

In NSW, coal from most of the mines that supply the state’s six coal-fired stations can, to varying degrees, be diverted. But much of this supply is already contracted for years ahead, so the export price is unlikely to be an accurate estimate of the price power stations will pay.

As best we know, only the Eraring station, near Newcastle in NSW’s Hunter region, is currently paying a price higher than the cap.

In the National Energy Market covering eastern Australia the price of the most expensive generator sets the price all generators receive. The coal price cap is therefore likely to make a difference to wholesale electricity prices when the Eraring power station is setting the market price.

This happens about 30% of the time, according to the publicly available data. So capping the coal price Eraring will pay much below what it is now paying could have a big effect on electricity prices.

But there’s a caveat. How will Eraring’s coal supplier respond?

Will it continue to supply coal at the lower capped price? Or will it decide to divert that coal to more lucrative export markets?

If the former, we can reasonably say the cap will reduce electricity prices.

If the latter, we could potentially be facing a supply crisis, with much higher electricity prices. If Eraring, the largest generator in eastern Australia, sits idle for want of coal to burn, more expensive gas generators (if available) will have to take its place.

Effects on gas price

What about gas? It’s a similar story to coal, although diverting gas to the export market is easier than for coal (because gas is much easier to move than coal and the pipeline network is much more extensive than the coal freight network).

As a result, domestic spot gas prices are more closely linked to export prices.

Like the coal price cap, the gas price cap is much lower than spot gas price. So the question is whether gas suppliers will sell uncontracted gas at the capped price, or politely decline.

The government hopes the Heads of Agreement with gas suppliers will ensure supply. It remains to be seen whether such a deal will ensure supply at a much lower price than we see in the gas markets today, at least for spot market purchases.

Imperfect information

None of this is to suggest the decision to impose price caps is necessarily flawed.

I do not have the necessary information about the existing situation, or accurate foresight of what lies ahead, to pass a categorical judgement. Presumably neither do any of our governments. None of us can confidently predict success or failure.

At the media briefing to announce the policy, Albanese was asked to quantify the effect on prices. He wisely refused to name a number, but insisted the policy would place “downward pressure” on prices. Presumably the government intends that the rebates (to be funded by federal taxpayers and the jurisdictions) will kick in if the wholesale caps don’t work as hoped.

Are there obviously better solutions?

Orthodox economists would suggest these challenges should be handled outside the market (for example through coal and gas export taxes, which would provide income to bail out exposed customers).

Sounds easy, but here too many devils lurk in the details.

About the Author:

Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

12 Dec

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, AXS). Overview for 12.12.2022

By RoboForex.com

The BTC failed to keep balance and on Monday dropped to 16,934 USD.

The second attempt in a row to rise above the intermediate support level of 17,200 USD failed. The market stepped back to the comfortable consolidation area. Now the support levels of 16,600 USD and 16,300 USD turn out working. If they are broken away, a pathway for sellers to 15,500 USD will open.

Nothing new is going on. If the crypto market had a global idea that could balance digital assets out after a decline, the dynamics would be better and prospects would be clearer. However, there is no general idea.

Capitalisation of the crypto market is 840.74 billion USD, the BTC taking up 38.7% and the ETH – 18.1%.

Florida believes in BTC

A US state of Florida is number one among the states in terms of acception of digital currencies and the development of blockchain-basee infrastructure. Firstly, this state accomodates for the largest number of BTC cash machines in the US. According to Invezz information, this is where blockchain startups prefer to open.

AXS became leader of growth over week

The AXS token turned out the most active over a week. It grew by 22%, at certain moments rising by 52%. AXS is a crypto of the Axie Infinity game.

David Schwartz: three reasons for FXT crash

Technical director of Ripple David Schwartz explained the three main reasons for the crash of the FXT exchange. The first one is the fact that Alameda Research used the clients’ money. Another reason is the deliberate mixture of the clients’ deposits and assets for high-risk investing. The third reason is no mechanisms for risk-management.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

12 Dec

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 12.12.2022 (GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.2145 is expected, followed by growth to 1.2640. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.2020, which will indicate further falling to 1.1925.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair has left the descending channel. The pair is going inside the Cloud, which indicates a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud is expected at 136.35, followed by growth to 141.85. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 135.25, which will mean further falling to 134.35. The growth will be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the descending channel and securing above 138.05.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is pushing off the Tenkan-Sen line. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 0.6355, followed by growth to 0.6605. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6235, which will entail further falling to 0.6245.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Dec

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.12

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0555
Prev Close: 1.0532
% chg. over the last day: -0.21 %

This week, the ECB will hold its last monetary policy meeting of the year. Analysts expect the ECB to raise the interest rate by another 50 basis points. But the main focus of investors right now is not on the size of the rate hike but on the final rate level and what the rate difference will be between the US Fed and the ECB. The bigger the difference between the two, the stronger the dollar index against the euro.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
Resistance levels: 1.0584, 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But at the moment, the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become negative. On the intraday time frames, the sellers have taken over the initiative. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0483 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0584, but better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0446 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2231
Prev Close: 1.2266
% chg. over the last day: +0.28 %

The UK government on Friday announced sweeping financial regulatory reforms that, according to Jeremy Hunt, will change the EU laws that have prevented the country from developing normally after Brexit. The package of 30 measures includes easing a rule requiring banks to separate their retail operations from their investment units. The changes announced in the package, dubbed the “Edinburgh Reforms,” also include a review of short-selling rules, stock exchange listings of companies, insurers’ balance sheets, and real estate investment funds. Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt said he wants to ensure Britain’s status as “one of the most open, dynamic, and competitive financial services centers in the world.”

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2177, 1.2024, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2279, 1.2304, 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2177, but with confirmation on intraday time frames. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2279 but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down from the 1.2100 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.12:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 136.68
Prev Close: 136.58
% chg. over the last day: -0.07 %

The Japanese Yen will now be completely dependent on the Dollar Index, as the divergent policies of the Japanese central banks and the US Federal Reserve leave no chance for the yen. Since a rate hike from the Fed on Wednesday is largely seen as a foregone conclusion, investors are focused on the Fed’s projections regarding the final rate point. Therefore, fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are prone to further growth.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 135.33, 133.53
Resistance levels: 137.42, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is positive again, and the buyers’ pressure on the intraday time frames is increasing. Sell deals may be looked for from the resistance level of 137.24, provided that there is a reverse reaction. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 135.33, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 138.00, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3590
Prev Close: 1.3645
% chg. over the last day: +0.40 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency. Falling oil prices last week caused the Canadian dollar to fall against other currencies, especially against the US dollar. On the one hand, this is a negative sign. On the other hand, a decrease in oil prices will have a downward effect on inflation, leading to an increase in production figures. Currently, the Bank of Canada keeps the rate higher than the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, so the Canadian dollar has a solid fundamental basis.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3621, 1.3518, 1.3438, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3690, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone. But the price is in front of the resistance level. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered after a slight pullback to the support level of 1.3621, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3690 but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or after a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.12.12:

– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:25 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Dec

Financial markets are gearing up for the busiest week this month

By JustMarkets

In the United States, the PPI, which measures inflation between factories and plants, rose by 0.4% last month. This is a negative sign, indicating that the current rate of inflation may not yet be peaking. A stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report also contributed to a late-session sell-off in stocks. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.90% (-2.50% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.73% (-2.90% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.70% on Friday (-3.31% for the week). All three indices closed the week lower.

The PPI report confirmed Chairman Powell’s recent speech that while the October inflation data was encouraging, it will take much more effort to bring down inflation. But there is also a positive side. Annual inflation expectations fell to 4.6% from 4.9%, the lowest since September 2021, according to a University of Michigan survey.

The US Federal Reserve will hold its last meeting of the year this week. Experts point to a 78% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 0.5%. The probability of raising the rate by 0.75% is 21%. Meanwhile, US inflation data on Tuesday will shed light on the Fed’s future plans, which will set the tone for US indices and stocks for the rest of the year and the beginning of 2023.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down last week. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.74% (-0.81% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.46% (-0.76% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.78% (-1.20% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Friday up by 0.06% (-1.05% for the week).

The UK will publish the next GDP and Industrial Production Data today. Analysts believe that if the GDP shows a decline, the UK will move from the stagflation phase to a full-blown recession. The wage and price spiral could lead to hyperinflation and destabilize the economy. According to the latest CBI report, UK business investment continues to decline.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will meet on December 15 and is expected to decide on a third rate hike, this time probably by 50 basis points, in the context of stabilizing inflation at 3%. A further rate hike could come in March 2023, after which the SNB will probably pause for the rest of the year.

Gold and silver have been trading higher in recent weeks as the US dollar lost some ground due to an impending rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. But as central banks remain focused on curbing inflation through restrictive tightening of monetary policy, the fundamental component is not yet in favor of the precious metals. On the other hand, the tightening cycle is in its final stages, and investors are beginning to move into gold and silver in advance. But traders should understand that if recession fears weaken, the dollar index might strengthen again, which would have a negative impact on gold quotes.

Last week, black gold prices were falling as the EU and allies put a price cap on Russian oil. But oil prices rose on Friday and continued to rise in Asian morning trading on Monday as Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to cut production in response to a Western price cap on Russian oil exports. Another factor in the rise in oil prices was the closure of a key oil pipeline between Canada and the United States over the weekend.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.53% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down by 0.87%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 3.53%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreases by 0.84%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 1.21%.

Optimism about the cancellation of COVID measures in China was largely neutralized by fears that a large spike in local infections would delay a broader opening.

Wholesale prices in Japan fell from 9.4% to 9.3% year-over-year in November. The drop in producer prices points to a possible peak in inflation amid a decline in global commodity prices. Global commodity prices and the weakness of the yen, which increases the cost of imports, are pushing wholesale and consumer inflation upward. Japanese policymakers fear that such a trend could hurt Japan’s fragile economic recovery, so they are keeping rates at ultra-low levels.

In the commodities market, futures on orange juice (+5.45%), lumber (+3.76%), soybeans (+3.06%), and palladium (+2.86%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Futures on WTI oil (-10.49%), BRENT oil (-10.23%), gasoline (-9.67%), wheat (-3.71%), coffee (-3.01%), and cotton (-2.62%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,934.38 −29.13 (−0.73%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,476.46 −305.02 (−0.90%)

DAX (DE40) 14,370.72 +106.16 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,476.63 +4.46 (+0.06%)

USD Index 104.93 +0.16 (+0.15%)

Important events for today:

– UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 22:25 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

10 Dec

COT Currency Speculators drive Euro bullish bets to a 92-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

British pound sterling & Australian dollar lead Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,391 contracts) with the Australian dollar (4,067 contracts), the Euro (2,636 contracts), the Swiss franc (2,017 contracts) and the Japanese yen (1,398 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-18,134 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,974 contracts), the Brazilian real (-5,439 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-1,444 contracts), Bitcoin (-257 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Euro positioning. Large speculators increased their bullish bets for the Euro this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks and for the twelfth time out of the past thirteen weeks. The Euro speculator position has gone from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a total of +124,883 contracts this week for a thirteen-week change of +172,559 contracts. The current speculator standing for the Euro has now ascended to the most bullish level since March 2nd of 2021, a span of ninety-two weeks.

The Euro (EURUSD) price has been on a bullish trend as well since falling to an approximate 20-year low in September at a below parity exchange rate of 0.9593. Since the September low, the Euro has rallied by approximately 9 percent and is now trading at the highest levels since June with this week’s close above the 1.0550 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	45,115	56	24,886	66	-27,540	32	2,654	46
EUR	711,537	84	124,883	73	-160,005	31	35,122	35
GBP	230,311	55	-28,193	45	37,774	60	-9,581	39
JPY	223,424	64	-65,996	28	75,202	72	-9,206	35
CHF	40,171	33	-12,230	22	17,859	74	-5,629	38
CAD	148,891	29	-22,090	15	22,905	88	-815	28
AUD	158,755	51	-40,563	47	42,820	51	-2,257	47
NZD	42,954	36	-6,498	37	6,301	61	197	54
MXN	293,708	93	47,952	48	-53,360	51	5,408	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	25,464	7	2,198	48	-4,324	51	2,126	86
Bitcoin	15,769	83	67	78	-568	0	501	24

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (78.1 percent) and the EuroFX (73.3 percent) lead the currency markets currently. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only currency in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (47.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (55.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (82.6 percent)

Japanese Yen tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent), the British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent), the EuroFX (15.3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-18.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (37.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (0.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (5.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.1	4.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	65.1	6.6
– Net Position:	24,886	-27,540	2,654
– Gross Longs:	36,157	1,838	5,610
– Gross Shorts:	11,271	29,378	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.0	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	10.8	-17.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 124,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	51.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	73.5	7.0
– Net Position:	124,883	-160,005	35,122
– Gross Longs:	245,063	363,169	85,050
– Gross Shorts:	120,180	523,174	49,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	30.6	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-18.8	25.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -28,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	56.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-28,193	37,774	-9,581
– Gross Longs:	28,539	168,838	22,941
– Gross Shorts:	56,732	131,064	32,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	59.7	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-19.6	18.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	76.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.4	15.3
– Net Position:	-65,996	75,202	-9,206
– Gross Longs:	23,589	169,918	24,896
– Gross Shorts:	89,585	94,716	34,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	72.3	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-20.9	12.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	70.9	25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	26.5	39.4
– Net Position:	-12,230	17,859	-5,629
– Gross Longs:	1,343	28,500	10,183
– Gross Shorts:	13,573	10,641	15,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	74.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-8.7	21.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	53.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	37.9	21.4
– Net Position:	-22,090	22,905	-815
– Gross Longs:	30,717	79,379	30,984
– Gross Shorts:	52,807	56,474	31,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	87.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.0	-1.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	63.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	36.7	12.0
– Net Position:	-40,563	42,820	-2,257
– Gross Longs:	36,334	101,160	16,814
– Gross Shorts:	76,897	58,340	19,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	50.8	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-17.5	30.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	53.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	38.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-6,498	6,301	197
– Gross Longs:	16,302	22,950	3,397
– Gross Shorts:	22,800	16,649	3,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-23.5	41.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.5	35.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	54.1	0.8
– Net Position:	47,952	-53,360	5,408
– Gross Longs:	177,555	105,410	7,854
– Gross Shorts:	129,603	158,770	2,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	50.5	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.0	-7.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	28.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	45.5	5.7
– Net Position:	2,198	-4,324	2,126
– Gross Longs:	14,625	7,271	3,566
– Gross Shorts:	12,427	11,595	1,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	50.6	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	28.6	-3.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	1.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.8	5.5	5.5
– Net Position:	67	-568	501
– Gross Longs:	12,651	306	1,365
– Gross Shorts:	12,584	874	864
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	36.9	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-9.1	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Wheat lead Most Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish.

Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled 122,174 net contracts this week with a gain of +19,835 contract in weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -3,239 net contracts this week with a change of +320 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 13,517 net contracts this week with a gain of +3,762 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 78.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 67 net contracts this week although with a drop of -257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -39,897 net contracts this week with a -6,592 contract decline in speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is also at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -658,606 net contracts this week with a significant drop of -129,257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -27,703 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -14,642 net contracts this week with a small -6 contract change in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Finally, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 231,720 net contracts this week with a weekly -8,019 contract shortfall in speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

10 Dec

COT Metals Speculators boosted their Silver bullish bets to 30-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold & Platinum lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (5,122 contracts) with Platinum (1,377 contracts), Silver (1,725 contracts) and Palladium (259 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only metals markets with declines in speculator bets this week was Copper at a total of -305 contracts.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the increasing bullishness of Silver positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Speculator bets have now risen by a total of +19,309 contracts over these past six weeks, going from a total of -101 contracts on October 25th to a total of +19,208 contracts this week. The recent gains have now positioned the speculator standing at its highest level since May 10th, a span of 30 weeks.

The Silver futures price has been on the move as well with prices closing out the week at $23.71. This is the highest weekly close for Silver since April and Silver is now up by over +30 percent since bottoming at the beginning of September.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (43.6 percent) and Copper (37.7 percent) lead the metals category this week. Silver (35.3 percent) and then Gold (20.9 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15.7 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in an Extreme-Bearish level below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (20.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (35.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.4 percent)
Copper (37.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.9 percent)
Platinum (43.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.7 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.2 percent)

Silver & Platinum tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all metals markets were positive movers this week. Silver (21.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (19.2 percent), Gold (15.6 percent), Copper (14.8 percent) and Palladium (2.2 percent) fill out the positive movers in the latest trends data.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (21.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.9 percent)
Copper (14.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.7 percent)
Platinum (19.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.2 percent)
Palladium (2.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 115,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	27.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	58.7	5.4
– Net Position:	115,125	-130,079	14,954
– Gross Longs:	211,472	117,578	37,785
– Gross Shorts:	96,347	247,657	22,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.4	7.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	36.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	62.8	8.6
– Net Position:	19,208	-32,262	13,054
– Gross Longs:	48,954	44,757	23,648
– Gross Shorts:	29,746	77,019	10,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	64.7	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.1	19.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	41.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	44.5	8.0
– Net Position:	1,679	-4,354	2,675
– Gross Longs:	55,496	66,286	15,368
– Gross Shorts:	53,817	70,640	12,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	63.6	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.7	9.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	29.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.9	4.1
– Net Position:	25,636	-30,148	4,512
– Gross Longs:	36,693	20,025	7,324
– Gross Shorts:	11,057	50,173	2,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	58.0	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.1	12.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	49.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	34.0	13.0
– Net Position:	-1,372	1,226	146
– Gross Longs:	2,460	3,875	1,157
– Gross Shorts:	3,832	2,649	1,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	81.1	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-5.8	37.8

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