Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 01.12.2022 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is testing the upper border of the Triangle pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.0360 is expected, followed by growth to 1.0765. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0245, which will mean further falling to 1.0155. The growth can be supported by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 1.0555.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is getting ready to break through the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1755 is expected, followed by growth to 1855. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the upper border of the descening channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1725, which will mean further falling to 1675.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The currency pair is correcting in a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.3375 is expected, followed by growth to 1.3750. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.3315, which will mean further falling to 1.3220.

USDCAD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EUR: what did Powell say? Overview for 01.12.2022

By RoboForex.com

The market major on Thursday is growing. The current quote is 1.0450.

Yesterday was full of statistics, but the key catalyst was different. Activity of investors heated up after the speech of the head of the US Fed Jerome Powell. He confirmed that the next increase in the interest rate might be more modest that the previous ones.

The idea is to raise the interest rate by 50 base points instead of 75 points, like it used to be raised for several meetings in a row. Simultaneously, Powell mentioned that the monetary policy on the whole would remain limiting at least for some time in the future – until there appear some confirmations that the inflation has subsided.

So, according to the CME observations, the market now considers a 50 base point increase of the rate to be 75% possible, so that at the meeting on 14 December the interest rate will reach 4.50% y/y. As for inflation, Powell acknowledged that it was too early to celebrate victory.

It seems that all that Powell has said lately are the main highlights for understanding the future steps of the regulator. Let us just stick to them.

For the USD, the slow-down in the growth of the interest rate became a negative signal.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.01

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0329
  • Prev Close: 1.0407
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.76 %

Eurozone’s inflation eased in November from 10.6 to 10% y/y due to falling energy prices. Core inflation remained stable at 5%. Nevertheless, economists warn that lower inflation is unlikely to prevent the European Central Bank from raising interest rates as food inflation continues to rise. Whether this is the peak of overall inflation remains to be seen. But the current economic situation could push the European Central Bank to hike less by 50 basis points next month.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
  • Resistance levels: 1.0444, 1.0504

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone with no signs of reversal. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0361, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0444, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0284 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.01:
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
  • – French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1958
  • Prev Close: 1.2056
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.82 %

A Bank of England spokesman said yesterday that UK inflation will fall rapidly in the 2nd half of 2023. But it is not yet the reason how this will happen, as at the moment, the UK labor market remains weak, and household incomes are shrinking. The Bank of England intends to raise interest rates at the next meeting, which will put even more pressure on the economy.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2015, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1172, 1.1093
  • Resistance levels: 1.2113, 1.2147, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The MACD indicator became positive, and the buyers’ pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 1.2015, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2113, but also better with confirmation, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1900 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.12.01:
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 138.63
  • Prev Close: 138.08
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.40%

Japan refrained from intervening in the foreign exchange market in November, the Treasury Department said Wednesday, as rumors grew that the US Federal Reserve would slow the pace of rate hikes as inflation peaked. Weaker-than-expected US inflation data this month somewhat diminished the prospect of aggressive rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-low interest rates.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 136.49, 135.20
  • Resistance levels: 137.65, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but on higher time frames, a divergence is formed, which indicates a certain weakness of the sellers. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be looked for on intraday time frames from the support level of 136.49, but only with confirmation. Selling could be sought from the resistance level of 137.65 or 139.09, provided there is a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 140.75, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.12.01:
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3578
  • Prev Close: 1.3414
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.22 %

Dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and signs of declining inflation in the US raised hopes that the Central Bank would be less aggressive about raising interest rates. The dollar index began to lose ground on such statements, and as a result, USD/CAD went down. The Biden administration is keeping its promise to cut the use of oil reserves in the US, which contributes to the maximum reduction of crude oil reserves in the country in a week. This helped oil prices rise by 3%, which is good for the Canadian currency, as it’s a commodity currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3479, 1.3522, 1.3658, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. But the price is close to changing a priority. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone with no signs of reversal. Sellers’ pressure is still present. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386 or 1.3360, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3479 but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.12.01:
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The US Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of rate hikes. Inflation in the Eurozone is falling

By JustMarkets

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the rate hikes are likely to slow, but the peak rate will be higher than previously expected, as there is a long way to go to curb inflation. About 70% of traders expect the Fed to slow rate hikes to 50 basis points in December, down from the 75 basis points seen in the previous four meetings. The Fed has targeted the labor market in its fight against inflation, hoping that tighter monetary policy will help reduce demand enough to curb wage growth and, ultimately, inflation. Such “dovish” statements by the head of the US Federal Reserve were seen by investors as positive. Stock indices jumped after Powell’s speech. At the close of the stock market yesterday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 2.18%, and S&P 500 (US500) added 3.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 4.41% on Wednesday.

The US inflation-adjusted GDP rose by 2.9% year-over-year for the latest quarter. For Federal Reserve policymakers, the overall GDP growth picture is what they want to see in line with the economy’s long-term trend.

Elon Musk believes a recession is coming and fears that Federal Reserve attempts to reduce inflation could make it worse. In a tweet yesterday, the Tesla CEO and the Twitter owner called on the Fed to immediately lower interest rates. Otherwise, the Fed risks increasing the likelihood of a serious recession.

Stock markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.04%, Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) increased by 0.49%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Wednesday up by 0.81%.

The oil price rose to $85-86 on news that OPEC+ countries are willing to cut OPEC production even further. The talks are about an additional 2 million BPD of production cuts.

In November, inflation in the Eurozone fell from 10.6% to 10% year-on-year due to falling energy prices. Core inflation remained stable at 5%. Nevertheless, economists warn that lower inflation is unlikely to prevent the European Central Bank from raising interest rates as food inflation rises. Whether this is the peak of overall inflation remains to be seen. But the current economic situation could push the European Central Bank to hike less by 50 basis points next month

The KOF economic barometer fell slightly in November and now stands at 89.5 points. This is the fifth consecutive drop in the barometer. The outlook for the Swiss economy in the coming months thus remains subdued.

Oil rose almost 3% yesterday on a decline in US crude oil inventories. Traders are also betting that China will ease Covid restrictions and OPEC countries will resort to deeper production cuts this Sunday.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.21% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 2.16%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up 0.43% by the end of the day.

Asian indices were boosted by growing optimism that China is easing its stance on COVID-19-related restrictions. Despite high infection rates, several cities in the world’s second-largest economy lifted regional blockades.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,080.11 +122.48 (+3.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,589.77 +737.24 (+2.18%)

DAX (DE40) 14,397.04 +41.59 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,573.05 +61.05 (+0.81%)

USD Index 106.03 -0.79 (-0.74%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
  • – French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

S&P 500 Respects Strong Bullish Trend

By ForexTime 

The S&P 500 was in a downtrend until a lower bottom formed on 13 October.  Bulls found the price attractive at those levels and the momentum in the market started shifting.

A closer look at the Momentum Oscillator reveals positive divergence between points “a” and “b” when comparing the bottoms at 3559.0 and 3492.4. This could have alerted technical traders that the current trend might be losing steam.

After the lower bottom at 3492.4, the price of the S&P 500 broke through the weekly resistance level at 3661.5, and the bullish activity was further confirmed when the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages and the Momentum Oscillator broke through the 100 base-line into bullish territory.

Since then the market has made four impulse waves in the uptrend before a lower top formed on 24 November and the market seemed to begin to lose some bullish momentum. The bears tried to pull the market lower but the bulls found new backing near the weekly support level at 3920.0 and a new impulse wave started on 30 November.

As long as the bulls can sustain the upward momentum, the outlook for the S&P 500 on the D1 time frame will remain bullish.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Inflation: how financial speculation is making the global food price crisis worse

By Sophie van Huellen, University of Manchester 

UK households, like those in many other countries, are struggling to make ends meet. More than half of households have only £2.66 per week left after paying for bills and essentials, according to figures from the supermarket chain Asda.

The extreme spikes in the cost of energy and food that we have seen this year are mostly to blame for this shift. Basic grocery prices have increased by 17% on average from last year, according to the Office for National Statistics, while some products such as pasta have increased by as much as 60%. This is because the cost of staple food crops, such as wheat, have increased by more than 30% since the beginning of 2021.

The drivers of these soaring prices are multiple: Russia’s war on Ukraine (a major wheat exporter), the effect of extreme weather on harvests, and pandemic-era supply chain bottlenecks that are still being felt due to ongoing lockdowns, labour shortages and loss of capacity by producers.

But these supply factors do not entirely explain recent price movements. Bumper grain harvests have been reported by China in 2021 and the US in 2022, and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) predicts a “comfortable supply situation” for grain in 2022-23. This calls into question whether soaring food prices can be attributed solely to supply shortages.

When the world last experienced a major food crisis in 2008, financial speculation with food-based derivatives was seen as a contributing factor. Indeed, my research on that food crisis suggests the world is once again likely to be experiencing a food price crisis rather than a food supply crisis.

The role of traders

While soaring food prices threaten food security globally, large food trading firms are profiting. These companies bet on the direction of food prices by storing or trading substantial amounts of goods – making big financial gains as a result.

But it’s not just physical goods that are traded. Financial markets also see producers and consumers, alongside banks, brokers and investors, trading in commodities such as food. Sometimes called paper trading because it involves the use of “futures contracts” rather than actual crops, this activity happens on commodity exchanges around the world.

Traders can buy (called “being long”) or sell (“short”) on these exchanges, and most contracts end before the delivery date so a trader doesn’t have to own or receive the goods to benefit – or not – from price changes. Similarly, traders only have to place a deposit with an exchange, from which gains and losses are added or taken. They do not have to put down the full value of the crop they are buying or selling via the commodity exchange unless they take delivery of the physical item at the end of the contract.

The role of speculators

While this can of course promote speculation, commodity exchanges also help producers, consumers and traders in physical food commodities to manage their risk. For instance, a farmer might take a short position (essentially betting that prices will fall) on the price of wheat via a contract that ends (or matures) close to the time of harvest. If prices fall while the crop grows, the contract gains in value and makes up for the farmer’s losses if the actual crops are worth less. It’s like an insurance policy that enables the farmer to plan ahead at the time of planting the crop.

For risk management to work, however, the physical price of the commodity must track the futures price. To guarantee this close relationship, the price of a physical contract is based on the price of a specific futures contract. For example, the Brent Crude futures contract traded on the Intercontinental Exchange is a globally accepted benchmark for a certain type of oil. Global food prices are similarly determined on financial futures markets.

The use of benchmarks is often justified by the claim that financial markets are good at “price discovery” – determining the current value of a product. The “efficient market paradigm” states that all information about market fundamentals – that is, physical demand and supply conditions – is reflected in the futures price.

Ignoring the fundamentals

For this to hold, trading activity must be based on this fundamental information alone. However, my research shows that financial traders use a variety of trading strategies that are not based on reading market fundamentals. This has important implications for food prices.

Take “index traders”, for example. These are typically large investors such as pension or insurance funds that invest in indices that track certain types of assets. They use commodity derivatives for diversification, to balance out the effects of inflation on other parts of their investment portfolios. They are also known as “noise traders” because their trading decisions support price increases that are completely unrelated to actual demand and supply.

On the other hand, hedge funds and investment banks tend to make trading decisions based on a mix of both market fundamentals and statistical charts or graphs showing historical price trends. This is known as “positive feedback trading” because it replicates and amplifies real price trends.

Research I conducted in 2020 shows that positive feedback and noise traders can have a substantial and prolonged impact on commodity futures prices. This means high food prices do not always signal a food shortage. An increase in speculative activity on food commodity markets since 2020 suggests that financial speculation could well have contributed to recent price highs.

This indicates that the current food crisis is a price crisis, rather than a supply crisis. But this does not mean that there are no food shortages.

High prices have severe consequences for food import-dependent countries that don’t have the facilities or money to secure supplies for their own people. Stockpiling by larger countries in anticipation of rising food prices, with the intent of securing access to food for their own citizens, further squeezes the physical supply of food. This is how a food price crisis can quickly turn into a food supply crisis.

And as the world saw when prices spiked in 2007-2008, when speculation creates a disconnect between real food supply and demand conditions, it can have devastating consequences for food security globally.The Conversation

About the Author:

Sophie van Huellen, Lecturer in Development Economics, University of Manchester

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Little Drone Co. Could Have Big Impact

Source: Streetwise Reports  (11/29/22)

Volatus Aerospace Corp. could be a company to watch in the fast-growing drone aviation market.

Volatus Aerospace Corp. (VOL:TSX; VLTTF:OTCQB) is a small, little-known player that could make a big impact in the burgeoning but rapidly growing multi-billion dollar commercial drone market.

Volatus is one of several players looking to carve a piece out of the global drone market expected to approach US$50 billion in annual revenues in the next seven years.

Earlier this month, the Canadian-based company, which serves the commercial and defense markets with integrated drone solutions, reported record revenue of CA$11.12 million, up 68% over the previous quarter and a 238% jump from the same period a year ago.

Building Revenue

Volatus is building revenue from sales of drone equipment, drones-as-a-service, training services, and crewed aircraft sales and services. The recent jump in revenue was driven by organic growth, scale in drone activities, and an increase in aviation revenue.

Global revenue from drones was valued at US$6.51 billion last year, expected to reach US$8.15 billion this year and jump to US$47.38 billion by 2029, according to a report by Fortune Business Insights.

The war in Ukraine has created a need for drones that will continue long after the conflict has ended, said Volatus Chief Executive Officer Glen Lynch during a conference call about the company’s earnings results earlier this month.

“Drones will have a major role to play in the reconstruction . . .  of the country,” Lynch said. “The conflict in Ukraine literally changed the way countries around the world are looking at the use of drones and modern warfare. So, we’re responding to numerous opportunities right now for sales in NATO countries that are not currently engaged in fighting directly in the conflict in Ukraine; we’re looking at a fairly robust future for drones in the defense sector.”

Volatus provides the commercial and defense markets with integrated drone solutions. It uses a network of more than 1,200 contract pilots across the Americas, providing imaging and security, equipment sales, and support and training.

The company is also providing aerial surveillance and monitoring of oil and gas pipelines, a market Volatus executives believe is valued at US$58.4 billion.

Catalyst: Two New Acquisitions

Volatus may have taken another step toward cornering the market for monitoring the oil and gas pipeline market with its recent acquisition of Synergy Aviation. The company believes Synergy, based in Edmonton, Alberta, will strengthen its position to provide green drone technologies for oil and gas infrastructure monitoring as an alternative to less environmentally friendly helicopters and airplanes.

Volatus also completed an acquisition of iRed Remote Sensing of Emsworth, England, to reinforce the company’s ability in infrared inspection while expanding its presence in the UK and Europe.

Today, November 28, 2022, Volatus announced another acquisition, signing to annex Syracuse-based Empire Drone Company LLC. This company is known as one of North America’s burgeoning distributors and integrators for unmanned aerial systems. Empire Drone’s projected 2022 revenue is CA$2.5M with a 6% EBITDA margin.

With this acquisition, Volatus will purchase 100% of the company for a cash consideration of US$300,000, and equity of US$350,000 with a minimum floor price of $0.65. This includes, according to the company, “an earn-out of US$350,000 paid in equity after one year anniversary based on the 30-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) with a minimum floor price of US$0.65 per share and assume the long-term debt of US$225,000.”

Volatus Taking Off With Drone Sector

Global revenue from drones was valued at US$6.51 billion last year, expected to reach US$8.15 billion this year and jump to US$47.38 billion by 2029, according to a report by Fortune Business Insights.

While the report says drones will likely have several commercial applications, including medical emergency transportation, and filming and photography, it also concluded that a “rise in demand for unmanned systems in the oil and  gas, energy, and power generation sector is likely to fuel market growth in the upcoming years.”

“I believe it’s only a matter of time before it eventually hits US$5.00,” Volatus Investor Edward Vranic wrote.

In addition to its third-quarter record revenue growth, Volatus also reported a gross profit of CA$3.3 million, up from CA$2.6 million in the year-ago period. The company also reported a gross margin of 30%, an increase of 127 basis points over its second quarter of this year.

Volatus says its recent acquisitions of Synergy and iRed provide approximately US$7.5 million in proforma revenue and US$1 million in proforma EBITDA for the first nine months, boosting the company’s revenue to US$30 million with a proforma EBITDA of US$1.63 million for the same three quarters.

Volatus is also working to improve Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS), a technology that helps drone operators avoid collisions with other aircraft when their drones are out of visual range. Volatus is currently trading at US$0.30. But the company’s stock could see a dramatic rise as it continues to grow aggressively in multiple areas in the drone sector, wrote Edward Vranic, a Volatus investor, in his Canadian small-cap investment blog on Oct. 31.

“I believe it’s only a matter of time before it eventually hits US$5.00,” he wrote. “With that stock price increase coming from a mix of continued revenue growth, an ability to achieve cash flow positive operations within two years, and improved market sentiment leading to more aggressive valuation multiples. VOL is a thinly traded stock, and it won’t take much to send it into rocket ship emoji mode.”

Ownership and Share Structure

Top shareholders in the company include CEO Lynch with 26.62% or 38.46 million shares and Chairman of The Board of Directors and Hauge Court advisory member Ian Alexander McDougall with 27% or 39 million shares, according to the company.

It has a market cap of CA$36.18 million with 113.9 million shares outstanding, 36 million of them free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.89 and CA$0.23.

Disclosures:
1) Pete Barlas wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Volatus Aerospace Corp. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Volatus Aerospace Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

Graphene is a proven supermaterial, but manufacturing the versatile form of carbon at usable scales remains a challenge

By Kevin Wyss, Rice University 

“Future chips may be 10 times faster, all thanks to graphene”; “Graphene may be used in COVID-19 detection”; and “Graphene allows batteries to charge 5x faster” – those are just a handful of recent dramatic headlines lauding the possibilities of graphene. Graphene is an incredibly light, strong and durable material made of a single layer of carbon atoms. With these properties, it is no wonder researchers have been studying ways that graphene could advance material science and technology for decades.

I never know what to expect when I tell people I study graphene – some have never heard of it, while others have seen some version of these headlines and inevitably ask, “So what’s the holdup?”

Graphene is a fascinating material, just as the sensational headlines suggest, but it is only just starting be used in real-world applications. The problem lies not in graphene’s properties, but in the fact that it is still incredibly difficult and expensive to manufacture at commercial scales.

A black and white image of a crystalline layer on a surface.
Pure graphene is a uniform, single-atom-thick crystal of carbon arranged in a hexagonal pattern, as seen in this electron microscope image.
M.H. Gass/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

What is graphene?

Graphene is most simply defined as a single layer of carbon atoms bonded together in a hexagonal, sheetlike structure. You can think of pure graphene as a one-layer-thick sheet of carbon tissue paper that happens to be the strongest material on Earth.

Graphene usually comes in the form of a powder made of small, individual sheets that are roughly the diameter of a grain of sand. An individual sheet of graphene is 200 times stronger than an equally thin piece of steel. Graphene is also extremely conductive, holds together at up to 1,300 degrees Fahrenheit (700 C), can withstand acids and is flexible and very lightweight.

Because of these properties, graphene could be extremely useful. The material can be used to create flexible electronics and to purify or desalinate water. And adding just 0.03 ounces (1 gram) of graphene to 11.5 pounds (5 kilograms) of cement increases the strength of the cement by 35%.

As of late 2022, Ford Motor Co., with which I worked as part of my doctoral research, is one of the the only companies to use graphene at industrial scales. Starting in 2018, Ford began making plastic for its vehicles that was 0.5% graphene – increasing the plastic’s strength by 20%.

Graphene has many incredible physical properties that arise from its one-atom-thick carbon structure.
AlexanderAlUS/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

How to make a supermaterial

Graphene is produced in two principal ways that can be described as either a top-down or bottom-up process.

The world’s first sheet of graphene was created in 2004 out of graphite. Graphite, commonly known as pencil lead, is composed of millions of graphene sheets stacked on top of one another. Top-down synthesis, also known as graphene exfoliation, works by peeling off the thinnest possible layers of carbon from graphite. Some of the earliest graphene sheets were made by using cellophane tape to peel off layers of carbon from a larger piece of graphite.

The problem is that the molecular forces holding graphene sheets together in graphite are very strong, and it’s hard to pull sheets apart. Because of this, graphene produced using top-down methods is often many layers thick, has holes or deformations, and can contain impurities. Factories can produce a few tons of mechanically or chemically exfoliated graphene per year, and for many applications – like mixing it into plastic – the lower-quality graphene works well.

A thin, folded, rough-edged piece of graphene.
Graphene flakes made from top-down methods are usually more than one atom thick and have impurities like folds and tears, as seen in this image.
Дагесян Саркис Арменакович/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

Top-down, exfoliated graphene is far from perfect, and some applications do need that pristine single sheet of carbon.

Bottom-up synthesis builds the carbon sheets one atom at a time over a few hours. This process – called vapor deposition – allows researchers to produce high-quality graphene that is one atom thick and up to 30 inches across. This yields graphene with the best possible mechanical and electrical properties. The problem is that with a bottom-up synthesis, it can take hours to make even 0.00001 gram – not nearly fast enough for any large scale uses like in flexible touch-screen electronics or solar panels, for example.

So what’s the holdup?

Current production methods of graphene, both top-down and bottom-up, are expensive as well as energy and resource intensive, and simply produce too little product, too slowly.

Some companies do manufacture graphene and sell it for US$60,000 to $200,000 per ton. There are a limited number of uses that make sense at these high costs.

While small amounts of top-down or bottom-up graphene can satisfy the needs of researchers, for companies even just the process of prototyping a new material, application or manufacturing process requires many pounds of graphene powder or hundreds of graphene sheets and a lot of time and effort. It took significant investment and more than four years of study, development and optimization before graphene hit the production line at Ford.

Current production can barely cover experimentation, much less widespread use.

Improving manufacturing

For a material that has been around since only 2004, a lot of progress has been made in scaling up the production and implementation of graphene.

There are hints that graphene is starting to break through at a commercial level. There are a huge number of graphene-related startups looking at a wide range of uses ranging from energy storage to composites to nerve stimulation. Major companies – such as Tesla, LG and chemical giant BASF – are also investigating how graphene could be used, in rechargeable batteries, flexible or wearable electronics and next-generation materials.

Graphene is ripe for a breakthrough that will bring down the cost and increase the scale of production, and this is an area of intense academic research. One new technique discovered in 2020, called flash joule heating, is especially promising. Researchers have shown that passing large amounts of electricity through any carbon source reorganizes the carbon-carbon bonds into a graphene structure. Using this process, it is possible to make many pounds of high-quality graphene for a relatively low cost out of any carbon-containing material like coal or even trash. A company called Universal Matter Inc. is already commercializing the process.

Once the cost of graphene comes down, the commercial applications will follow. The appetite for graphene is huge, but it is going to take some time before this material lives up to its potential.The Conversation

About the Author:

Kevin Wyss, PhD Student in Chemistry, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Biopharma Co. Trades to New 52-Week High

Source: Streetwise Reports  (11/28/22)

Shares of Axsome Therapeutics Inc. traded to a new 52-week high after the company reported its AXS-05 successfully met both the primary and key secondary endpoints in the Phase 3 ACCORD Alzheimer’s disease agitation trial.

Biopharmaceutical company Axsome Therapeutics Inc. (AXSM:NASDAQ), which is focused on developing new medicines for use in the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders, today announced that “AXS-05, a novel, oral, investigational NMDA receptor antagonist with multimodal activity, met the primary and key secondary endpoints in the ACCORD (Assessing Clinical Outcomes in Alzheimer’s Disease Agitation) Phase 3 trial, by substantially and statistically significantly delaying the time to relapse and preventing relapse of agitation in patients with Alzheimer’s disease, as compared to placebo.”

The company advised that the multi-center, randomized Phase 3 ACCORD study included a total of 178 patients in the U.S. who were diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease agitation. The firm indicated that those who had received open-label treatment with AXS-05 demonstrated “rapid, substantial, and statistically significant improvement compared to baseline in agitation symptoms.” These patients who had experienced a sustained clinical response after open-label treatment with AXS-05 were then randomized to receive continued treatment with AXS-05 or a placebo.

Axsome Therapeutics noted that in the ACCORD study, AXS-05 met the primary objective defined as a substantial and statistically significant delay in the time elapsed to relapse of agitation symptoms compared to placebo. In the study, AXS-05 also met a key secondary endpoint which was listed as the prevention of relapses.

The company highlighted using the modified Alzheimer’s Disease Cooperative Study-CGIC (clinicians) scale, AXS-05 was shown to lessen Alzheimer’s disease agitation in 66% of patients after two weeks and by 86% of patients after five weeks. Similarly, utilizing the PGI-C assessment (caregivers) scale, 68% of patients showed improvement in agitation at two weeks, and 89% registered improvement at five weeks.

Dr. Cummings continued, “The results of the ACCORD trial demonstrate convincing clinical activity for AXS-05 on agitation associated with Alzheimer’s disease based on both a significant delay in symptom relapse as well as a reduction of relapse compared to placebo.”

Jeffrey Cummings, M.D., D.Sc., Director Emeritus of the Cleveland Clinic Lou Ruvo Center for Brain Health, and Chambers Professor of Brain Science at the University of Nevada Las Vegas, noted that “Agitation is one of the most troubling and consequential aspects of Alzheimer’s disease for patients and their caregivers as it is associated with early nursing home placement, accelerated cognitive decline, and increased mortality.”

Dr. Cummings continued, “The results of the ACCORD trial demonstrate convincing clinical activity for AXS-05 on agitation associated with Alzheimer’s disease based on both a significant delay in symptom relapse as well as a reduction of relapse compared to placebo. Treatment with AXS-05 during the open-label period in a large cohort of patients resulted in rapid and clinically meaningful improvements in Alzheimer’s disease agitation.”

The company’s CEO, Herriot Tabuteau, M.D., stated, “With the positive results from ACCORD, AXS-05 has now demonstrated efficacy in the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease agitation in two well-controlled trials. In addition to the strong results versus placebo in the double-blind period, results from the open-label period evidenced rapid, substantial, and significant improvements in Alzheimer’s disease agitation versus baseline with AXS-05 treatment.”

“We intend to discuss these findings with the FDA in the context of the ongoing clinical development of AXS-05 in this indication, with the goal of providing a much-needed treatment to the millions of patients living with Alzheimer’s disease agitation and their caregivers,” Dr. Tabuteau added.

The company stated that “Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by cognitive decline and behavioral and psychological symptoms including agitation.” AD affects around six million people in the U.S. and is the most frequently occurring type of dementia. Agitation, which includes aggressive behavior, disinhibition, disruptive irritability, and emotional distress, is reported in about 70% of patients diagnosed with AD. Currently, there are no U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved therapies to treat agitation in AD patients.

The firm explained that “AXS-05 (dextromethorphan-bupropion) is a novel, oral, patent protected, investigational N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonist with multimodal activity under development for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) agitation and other central nervous system (CNS) disorders.” The company uses its metabolic inhibition technology to modulate the delivery of AXS-05’s patented formulation of dextromethorphan and bupropion. The report listed that supported by the positive results collected during the ADVANCE-1 trial, AXS-05 was awarded Breakthrough Therapy designation by the FDA in June 2020 for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease agitation.

Axsome Therapeutics is a biopharmaceutical firm headquartered in New York, NY that is working to develop novel therapies for treating central nervous system (CNS) conditions. Axsome’s ongoing product development pipeline includes potential treatments for agitation associated with Alzheimer’s disease, acute migraine, fibromyalgia, smoking cessation, cataplexy in narcolepsy, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Axsome Therapeutics started the day with a market cap of around US$2.47 billion, with approximately 43.43 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 15.6%. AXSM shares opened 25% higher today at US$71.035 (+US$14.215, +25.02%) over Friday’s US$56.82 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price this morning of US$79.68. The stock traded today between US$68.12 and US$79.68 per share and closed for trading at US$74.68 (+US$17.92, +31.54%).

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China Needs to Fuel Recovery in 2023

By Dan Steinbock

After a tough 2022, China seeks to move toward recovery in 2023, amid stagnation in the US and deep recession in the Eurozone.

Battered by domestic challenges and disruptive external headwinds, Chinese economy has coped with a tough year. The lockdown of Guangzhou’s transportation hub, a rising number of cases in Beijing and other major cities highlight the most recent challenges, along with shifts in Covid strategy.

And if it’s been a hard year for China, it’s been worse elsewhere, thanks to misguided economic policies and ill-advised geopolitics. The risk of recession casts a dark shadow over the US, which remains deeply polarized. The Eurozone is facing a deep recession, Japan’s economy is shrinking, and the United Kingdom is struggling with the worst fall in living standards since records began.

In this dire international landscape, China’s recovery could alleviate global economic prospects.

From headwinds…

Until the fall, economic data has reflected challenges. Retail sales and domestic tourism have slumped, mainly because of recurrent lockdowns across first-tier megacities. That’s the net effect of mobility restrictions, which undermine effective demand.

The reverse side of reduced consumption are rising household deposits and falling equity markets. When people feel uneasy about the future, they save rather than consume, while businesses defer investment decisions and investors flee to liquidity.

Industrial production has moderated, due to supply-chain disruptions among the provinces. While automobile production and new electric vehicle production signals progress, the double-digit fall of the semiconductors is the direct result of US-led geopolitics. In turn, the slowing growth of exports reflects recessionary risks in the US and the European Union, two of China’s major trading partners.

Following several years of adverse liquidity in the real estate sector, the new property market support measures, particularly the government’s 16-point recovery plan, will contribute to stabilization. While default risks remain elevated with weaker developers, larger quality developers will benefit from consolidation.

Through the year, investment, fueled mainly by the public sector, has offset effective demand, as evidenced by higher output in steel and new renewable projects. That will add to debt pressures, particularly at the local level. Meanwhile, the Fed’s aggressive tightening has complicated efforts at monetary easing at the People’s Bank of China.

… to recovery

Yet, the real story of 2023 is likely to be the impending recovery of the Chinese economy. A central determinant in unleashing the Chinese consumption potential, private sector investment and investor confidence hinges on the fine-tuning of the dynamic clearing policy to Covid-19 cases and the consequent broad-based recovery.

Though gradual, the implementations of new rules to better balance the pandemic fight and economic development could result in a surge of pent-up demand by the second quarter of 2023. Such progress would strengthen economic data. Retail sales would climb. Consumer confidence, even domestic tourism, would pick up with rising consumption, including (costlier) consumer durables, while household deposits would decrease accordingly.

Businesses would invest more, including foreign multinationals as their home markets in the West will stagnate. Property markets would gradually normalize and also benefit from pent-up demand. Chinese investors would return to equity markets, which would also be attractive to overseas investors seeking diversification. The MSCI China Index heralds the turnaround; it was 24% up in November, compared to only 2% for the S&P 500 Index.

Industrial production would pick up. Despite demand destruction in the West, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRIA) will promote steady progress on the back of recovery in Southeast Asia, which China is both driving and benefiting from. Less fixed asset investment by the public sector would reduce local governments’ debt pressures.

Downside risks, upside realities

In a downside scenario, domestic woes would prove more adverse because China would shun from reforms and opening-up policies. This nightmare scenario is aggressively propagated by neoconservatives in the West, although it has nothing to do with facts.

In reality, both reforms and opening-up policies will continue in China.

Certainly, domestic challenges will remain tough. The population is aging. The economy needs to move from investment toward consumption. Despite decelerating economic growth, per capita incomes must continue to rise. Worse, these challenges must be met amid the West’s purposeful efforts to undermine such efforts.

Yet, in each case, policymakers have shown willingness to rely on reforms to overcome challenges. The aging-related reduction of the labor force will be significantly smaller than expected, as the new UN projections attest.

Furthermore, the share of investment to GDP likely peaked at 42 percent in the past half a decade, with a gradual decline set to ensue.

And thanks to continued reforms and “common prosperity” policies, Chinese catch-up in productivity and per capita incomes has climbed to more than a third of the US level, even as secular growth is decelerating to 4% in the late 2020s.

A brighter 2023 outlook

In 2022, analysts and multilateral banks estimate China’s GDP growth at 3 to 3.3%. Then again, the growth rates of all major economies have been downgraded for 2022.

The real story is that, thanks to the expected rebound, China’s growth could climb to 4.5 percent to 5.0 percent in 2023. The precondition is that prevention and control policies will continue to be refined to make them more agile and flexible and the global landscape remains manageable, as indicated by the easing of Sino-US tensions after the recent meeting between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping.

With recovery in 2023, China’s long-term development goals – primary modernization by 2035 comprehensive modernization by 2050 – remain within schedule.

About the Author:

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist of the multipolar world and the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see https://www.differencegroup.net

The original version was published by China Daily in the expert series on “China and the World Roundtable” on November 28, 2022