InvestMacro

The US Fed is likely to reduce the pace of rate hikes. The ECB remains on an aggressive path

The Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40% (+1.90% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.40% (+2.26% for the week) at the close of the stock market on Friday. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.71% on Friday (+3.91% for the week). All three indices closed in positive territory on last week’s results.

The University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday showed that Americans’ inflation expectations for the year ahead fell for the fourth straight month in January, falling to 4.0% from 4.4% in December. According to the survey, this is the lowest price pressure since April 2021.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Rafael Bostic said he is leaning toward supporting a small interest rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting after Thursday’s report showed a further slowdown in inflation. This coincides with other comments from Fed officials. In fact, most Fed policymakers (except Bullard, who has always been more hawkish) agree to reduce the rate hike to 0.25%. Fed officials expect interest rates to exceed 5% this year and remain at that level until 2024, according to projections.

Investors will keep a close eye on the start of the reporting season this week to see if US companies can beat estimates amid concerns. Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are due to report earnings before the opening on Tuesday, followed by Procter & Gamble (PG) and Netflix (NFLX) on Thursday. According to Refinitiv, annual earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to fall by 2.2% for the quarter. This will be the first quarterly decline in US earnings since the third quarter of 2020,

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) increased by 0.19% (+2.97% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.69% (+2.36% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.61% (+2.19% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Friday up by 0.64% (+1.88% for the week).

The British GDP grew by 0.1% last month, while it was expected to decline by 0.2%. Despite the positive data, analysts point out that GDP has shrunk by 0.3% in the last three months and economists believe that a recession can only be postponed but not prevented. Moreover, the effects of the Bank of England’s monetary tightening have yet to affect the economy fully. Along with the corporate tax hike to 25% and the expiration of the tax credit for new investments, the economy will only shrink.

Fitch Ratings raised its outlook for the ECB’s policy rates as the Central Bank became much more concerned about core inflation pressures and signaled that rates would reach higher levels. Economists believe the ECB will raise the refinancing rate (MRO) to 4% (previously: 3%) by May 2023, and the deposit rate (DFR) will reach 3.5%. In total, there will be a 150 basis point increase in 1H 2023, starting with 50 basis points at each of the ECB meetings on February 5 and March 16, 2023.

Gold prices rose last week after the December inflation data release. Gold has approached a nine-month high and is trading near the key resistance at $1,950 an ounce. The US dollar continues to fall, which positively affects the precious metals, which are inversely correlated to the dollar and US government bond yields. Gold prices are rising as analysts believe the Fed is at the end of its rate hike cycle.

The US inflation easing play is also helping oil bulls, although rising oil prices alone could eventually lead to higher inflation. WTI crude oil increased by 8.54% over the past week. British Brent crude for March delivery added 8.73% for the week in London trading on Friday.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.47% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 3.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 2.08%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) declined by 0.19%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) added 3.07%.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may adjust its yield control policy to roll back monetary stimulus this year if wage increases continue to spread. The BOJ may also slightly revise its inflation forecasts for the fiscal year beginning in April as companies continue to raise prices on a wide range of goods. Markets are still reeling from rumors that the Bank of Japan will soon abandon its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy and begin raising interest rates.

In the commodities market, futures on lumber (+18.01%), gasoline (+13.05%), Brent oil (+8.73%), WTI oil (+8.54%), copper (+7.84%), sugar (+4.01%), corn (+3.33%) and gold (+2.85%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-6.17%), coffee (-4.86%), cotton (-3.82%), and platinum (-2.65%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,999.09 +15.92 (+0.40%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,302.61 +112.64 (+0.33%)

DAX (DE40) 15,086.52 +28.22 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,844.07 +50.03 (+0.64%)

USD Index 102.18 -0.07 (-0.06%)

Important events for today:

– World Economic Forum Annual Meetings at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Business Outlook Survey at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Jan

Inflation report is a mixed bag – an economist explains why some items are rising faster than others

By Edouard Wemy, Clark University

Economists worried about soaring inflation got some good news to start the year: The rate of inflation has eased. The first report card of 2023 on consumer prices, released on Jan. 12, showed that the overall cost of goods and services decelerated to an annual pace of 6.5% in December, the slowest in over a year and down from 7.1% in November.

But there’s bad news too, especially if you are an egg-munching renter fond of frequent regular haircuts. In quite a few categories, the cost of living rose at an even faster pace.

That’s because price inflation isn’t uniform. Different products and services are affected by myriad factors. So while some prices may have fallen during December, slowing the annual rate of inflation, other items kept getting more expensive.

The Conversation asked Edouard Wemy – an economist from Clark University who never sets off to work without his morning breakfast of two eggs, sunny side up – to explain how different items in the consumer price basket fared in the latest inflation report.

Energy

When you look at the detail of the latest report on the consumer price index, you’ll see that overall energy costs declined. That’s because there was a steep decline in gasoline prices – down 9.4% in the month of December after dropping 2% in November.

While that’s good news, it’s a bit puzzling. AAA was expecting demand for gasoline to be very high over the month, which usually happens in winter. This typically pushes prices up. My best guess is either demand wasn’t as strong as expected due to fears of a coming recession or there has been an easing on the supply constraints that has contributed to pushing the price of gas up.

An exception to this downward energy price trend was in energy services – that is, electricity and piped gas – where prices actually ticked up. The reason is largely due to the rising cost of doing business. Utility companies and pipeline services are suffering as a result of higher labor costs and are passing on the added cost to consumers through higher prices. The latest jobs report shows average hourly earnings rose 4.6% in December from a year earlier.

Groceries

Overall food inflation slowed in December, with the cost of groceries rising just 0.2% in the month – down from 0.5% in November.

But there is a lot of variation in the cost of grocery items. While the price of fruits and vegetables fell in December, the cost of eggs jumped by 11.1%. That’s due to an outbreak of bird flu that could well last until into the summer.

In addition to that, farms are seeing the same wage pressures as other businesses, which are then passed on to consumers.

Housing

The cost of shelter, whether from renting or owning, rose 0.8% in December – the biggest one-month gain since the 1980s.

This is understandable given the numerous interest rate hikes during 2022. Rising interest rates means that taking out a home loan is more costly, which in turn pushes more people into renting. Added demand on rental properties in turn pushes the prices that landlords demand up.

When interest rates eventually drop, it should bring the overall cost of shelter down, as it would encourage more people to buy homes. But I’m not optimistic that rates will fall until 2024, so don’t expect any downward movement on shelter in the coming months.

Hospital visits

The cost of going to the hospital was another category that saw a big increase. Average prices for hospital and related services jumped 1.5% in December, the biggest gain since 2015.

Again, this is due to the rising cost of doing business – that is, upward pressure on wages – coupled with still-high energy costs.

Used cars and trucks

Another category that helped the overall pace of inflation slow down is used cars and trucks.

After soaring throughout the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, used car prices have been plunging in recent months. They fell 2.5% in December, putting the annual decline at 8.8%. The cost of new cars also dropped in December.

About the Author:

Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Jan

Bitcoin hits $21k: the ‘bulls are ready to run!’

By George Prior

The Bitcoin price rally demonstrates that cryptocurrency investors are pricing in more favourable market conditions in 2023 as inflation looks set to peak, affirms the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group, a high-profile crypto entrepreneur, is commenting after Bitcoin reached above $21,095 on January 13 for the first time since November 8 2022, before falling back slightly.

At the time of this release, the largest crypto by market capitalisation is $20,890, according to the exchange deVere Crypto.

He says: “We are technically still in a bear market, but the signs are the bulls are beginning to take back control.

“Bitcoin price has jumped yet again– another 3.8% in the last 24 hours – on top of gains made through the week. It’s estimated that around $70 billion has been traded in crypto over the last day alone.”

He continues: “The relief rally began on the back of the latest U.S. inflation data which was released on Thursday. It revealed U.S. CPI slowed to 6.5% in December from 7.1% the previous month.

“As inflation in the world’s largest economy is, it seems, being brought under control thanks to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes, it makes it more likely that the central bank will begin to take its foot off the brake of the economy by slowing the hikes.

“The Fed will continue hiking rates for a while yet (albeit at a slower pace) as they can’t afford to slide backwards. Officials will continue to sound hawkish too in order to avoid over-excitement in the markets and wider complacency.”

The asset classes that have fallen hardest due to central banks’ policy tightening in 2022 may be the strongest performers during the unwinding of the rate hike programmes, predicts the deVere CEO.

“These include cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, which alongside tech stocks, were hit hard.

“As the central banks begin to stop tightening the screws, and the cyclical upturn gets underway, these asset classes could outperform others.

“Knowing they are likely to be rewarded for doing so, many crypto investors are positioning themselves now for the pivot.”

The developments will be welcomed by crypto enthusiasts after Bitcoin lost over 60% of its value in 2022, with many other tokens experiencing similar losses, due to the bleak macro outlook, the collapse of several crypto firms, and greater regulatory scrutiny.

Nigel Green concludes: The ‘crypto winter’ is thawing amid growing signs that inflation is beginning to cool.

“Of course, the crypto market will not go in a straight line – no market ever does – but we expect the bears to go into hibernation and bulls are ready to run.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

14 Jan

Currency Speculators pull back on Japanese Yen bearish bets to 21-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (11,487 contracts) with the EuroFX (5,067 contracts), Mexican Peso (2,995 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (2,577 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-9,155 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,510 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,516 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-4,189 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,221 contracts), Bitcoin (-983 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-130 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is the recent declines in the Japanese Yen bearish speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Yen rose by +11,487 contracts this week and have been higher for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Yen speculator bets have also gained in nine out of the past eleven weeks, going from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to a 21-week bearish low of just -35,377 contracts this week.

The Yen price has been strongly improving in recent trade against the US dollar as the Yen has gained by approximately 16 percent since hitting a multi-decade low in October. The USDJPY currency pair has fallen from around 152.09 in October to trading currently below 128.00 at the close of this week.

Helping the Yen’s trend change course has been the Bank of Japan altering its bond yield policy with the BOJ allowing its bond-band to expand. Also, there has been a decline in the yield differential between Japan and the US since October – aided by a moderation in US inflation data.

Japan minus US 10 year yield differential

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,307	50	16,540	53	-19,280	45	2,740	46
EUR	746,163	88	134,982	76	-182,210	24	47,228	54
GBP	202,713	39	-29,456	44	35,268	58	-5,812	47
JPY	175,745	35	-35,377	47	34,488	52	889	55
CHF	33,266	13	-7,370	35	8,206	59	-836	55
CAD	133,888	19	-30,955	5	27,265	91	3,690	38
AUD	126,028	27	-33,690	54	32,210	43	1,480	56
NZD	27,566	1	7,350	74	-8,499	26	1,149	65
MXN	270,826	82	-53,381	5	47,206	92	6,175	94
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	33,429	18	21,701	69	-23,574	30	1,873	83
Bitcoin	14,891	76	-594	67	-29	0	623	27

Strength Scores led by Euro & New Zealand Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (69 percent), Bitcoin (67 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (5 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (35 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (52.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (54.6 percent)
EuroFX (76.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (43.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (51.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (47.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (40.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (35.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (47.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (4.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (53.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (51.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (73.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (74.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (4.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.1 percent)
Bitcoin (66.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (83.7 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (33 percent) and the Japanese Yen (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (18 percent), the Brazilian Real (15 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), Bitcoin (-16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-10.5 percent)
EuroFX (3.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (2.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (6.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-17.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (33.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-50.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (15.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (20.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-5.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	2.7	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	48.3	7.2
– Net Position:	16,540	-19,280	2,740
– Gross Longs:	33,928	1,158	5,784
– Gross Shorts:	17,388	20,438	3,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	45.1	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	14.6	-9.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 134,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	78.1	5.9
– Net Position:	134,982	-182,210	47,228
– Gross Longs:	238,623	400,775	91,275
– Gross Shorts:	103,641	582,985	44,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	24.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-7.8	23.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	68.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.9	14.5
– Net Position:	-29,456	35,268	-5,812
– Gross Longs:	36,007	138,532	23,559
– Gross Shorts:	65,463	103,264	29,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	58.0	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-9.5	13.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	67.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	48.2	16.0
– Net Position:	-35,377	34,488	889
– Gross Longs:	26,395	119,166	28,973
– Gross Shorts:	61,772	84,678	28,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	52.5	55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-23.5	32.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	51.2	37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	26.5	40.2
– Net Position:	-7,370	8,206	-836
– Gross Longs:	3,668	17,034	12,542
– Gross Shorts:	11,038	8,828	13,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	58.5	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-19.4	16.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -30,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	56.1	24.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	35.7	22.1
– Net Position:	-30,955	27,265	3,690
– Gross Longs:	22,166	75,060	33,283
– Gross Shorts:	53,121	47,795	29,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	91.4	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	11.1	3.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.7	31.3	15.1
– Net Position:	-33,690	32,210	1,480
– Gross Longs:	30,210	71,696	20,573
– Gross Shorts:	63,900	39,486	19,093
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	42.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-14.0	18.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -130 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.7	38.2	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	69.0	11.1
– Net Position:	7,350	-8,499	1,149
– Gross Longs:	12,607	10,520	4,206
– Gross Shorts:	5,257	19,019	3,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	26.5	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.2	-31.0	8.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -53,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.2	41.3	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.9	23.9	0.9
– Net Position:	-53,381	47,206	6,175
– Gross Longs:	149,517	111,970	8,593
– Gross Shorts:	202,898	64,764	2,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	92.5	93.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.9	50.0	-2.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.4	12.9	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	83.4	5.0
– Net Position:	21,701	-23,574	1,873
– Gross Longs:	25,210	4,322	3,561
– Gross Shorts:	3,509	27,896	1,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.2 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	30.4	83.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.6	-1.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -983 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	3.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.5	3.2	4.8
– Net Position:	-594	-29	623
– Gross Longs:	11,989	447	1,339
– Gross Shorts:	12,583	476	716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.6	63.1	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	36.5	3.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

14 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, WTI Crude Oil lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position continues to come in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 26.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 157,710 net contracts this week with a change of 1,142 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 79.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 32.5 this week. The speculator position registered 79,994 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 9,505 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 76.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 134,982 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,067 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 73.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 33.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 7,350 net contracts this week with a dip of -130 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 70.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.0 this week.

The speculator position was -8,151 net contracts this week with a decline of -9,513 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 205,236 net contracts this week with a drop of -22,371 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -39,716 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,425 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Coffee speculator level resides at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -14,739 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -13,927 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 3.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.9 this week. The speculator position was -98,270 net contracts this week with a gain of 15,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

Finally, the Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.9 this week. The speculator position was -53,381 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,995 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

14 Jan

Large Metals Speculators boost their Copper bets into bullish territory

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,902 contracts) with Gold (8,869 contracts), Palladium (52 contracts) and Platinum (199 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Silver with a drop by -1,921 contracts on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the boost the the Copper positions got this week. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose this week for only the first time in the past four weeks but represented the highest one-week gain of the past 64 weeks, dating back to October of 2019.

Copper speculators pushed the overall position back into bullish territory after a week spent in bearish levels on January 3rd. Copper had been in bearish territory in 29 out of the previous 37 weeks before this week’s gain.

The Copper futures price jumped by over 7 percent this week to around the $4.20 per pound level and the highest weekly close since June. Copper is also up by over 30 percent since hitting a recent low in July of 2022. The opening of China’s economy (after discarding its zero-covid policies) has been a positive development for the price outlook as China is one of the leading countries in both producing and consuming Copper.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	481,519	16	150,535	33	-172,478	66	21,943	35
Silver	129,961	7	29,013	46	-42,925	55	13,912	40
Copper	186,383	29	10,227	44	-16,253	54	6,026	60
Palladium	8,352	12	-2,490	11	2,337	85	153	51
Platinum	72,216	43	30,702	50	-34,346	53	3,644	17

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (50 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (46 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (32.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (29.7 percent)
Silver (46.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.2 percent)
Copper (44.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.6 percent)
Platinum (50.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.1 percent)
Palladium (11.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.9 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (12.7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-6.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only negative mover over the past six weeks.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.5 percent)
Silver (12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.6 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.2 percent)
Platinum (8.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.8 percent)
Palladium (-6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 150,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	23.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	59.0	5.1
– Net Position:	150,535	-172,478	21,943
– Gross Longs:	243,566	111,718	46,373
– Gross Shorts:	93,031	284,196	24,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	65.9	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-16.5	32.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	32.8	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	65.8	7.7
– Net Position:	29,013	-42,925	13,912
– Gross Longs:	56,770	42,599	23,938
– Gross Shorts:	27,757	85,524	10,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	54.7	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-13.2	12.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,675 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	37.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	46.2	7.3
– Net Position:	10,227	-16,253	6,026
– Gross Longs:	74,753	69,787	19,691
– Gross Shorts:	64,526	86,040	13,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	54.4	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-10.0	26.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	26.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	74.0	4.4
– Net Position:	30,702	-34,346	3,644
– Gross Longs:	43,745	19,128	6,832
– Gross Shorts:	13,043	53,474	3,188
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	52.7	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.0	-11.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 52 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	53.3	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	25.3	14.5
– Net Position:	-2,490	2,337	153
– Gross Longs:	2,114	4,452	1,362
– Gross Shorts:	4,604	2,115	1,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.3	84.7	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	4.6	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

14 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators reduced their 2-Year & 5-Year Bonds bearish bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were even this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (65,457 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (29,768 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15,087 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (11,873 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Eurodollar (-71,774 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-27,756 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,512 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-3,929 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is this week’s breather in the highly bearish 2-Year and 5-Year speculator positioning.

The 2-Year Bond large speculator positions trimmed their bearish bets for a second straight week and for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. This improvement comes after speculators pushed their positioning to an all-time bearish low of -586,270 contracts on November 15th. Since that record low, speculators have taken off a total of 130,219 contracts from the bearish standing.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions have also improved recently with four straight weeks of decreasing bearish levels. The 5-Year speculator positions had recently fallen to 216-week low of -691,537 contracts on December 13th which marked the most bearish level since October of 2023. Since then, bets have gained by +68,386 contracts in the past four weeks.

Despite the recent improvements, both the 2-Year and 5-Year speculator levels continue to remain strongly bearish in this rising rate economic environment that also currently has yield curve inversions all over the total US bonds yield curve. However, there is the potential that both recent significant lows (in 2-Year and 5-Year) could be seen as bearish sentiment peaks if inflation data continues to moderate and the US Federal Reserve decides to scale back on their interest rate hikes.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	6,013,989	1	-1,055,535	34	1,258,804	64	-203,269	60
FedFunds	1,527,145	49	-112,330	26	129,044	76	-16,714	19
2-Year	2,319,897	25	-456,051	19	452,472	79	3,579	54
Long T-Bond	1,184,966	40	-157,385	33	129,734	57	27,651	75
10-Year	3,894,938	57	-411,358	10	488,454	80	-77,096	62
5-Year	4,095,328	57	-623,151	9	657,644	87	-34,493	72

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (34 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (33 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (19 percent) come in as the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (33.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (36.3 percent)
Eurodollar (33.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (35.0 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next for lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-16.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
Eurodollar (12.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.5 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,055,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -71,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -983,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	69.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	48.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-1,055,535	1,258,804	-203,269
– Gross Longs:	450,880	4,201,292	306,594
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,415	2,942,488	509,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	63.6	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-12.3	8.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -112,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	76.8	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	68.3	3.1
– Net Position:	-112,330	129,044	-16,714
– Gross Longs:	132,184	1,172,814	31,131
– Gross Shorts:	244,514	1,043,770	47,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	75.5	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	10.4	-18.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -456,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 65,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -521,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	80.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	60.6	8.4
– Net Position:	-456,051	452,472	3,579
– Gross Longs:	220,701	1,857,300	199,092
– Gross Shorts:	676,752	1,404,828	195,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	79.1	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-10.1	-2.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -623,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -652,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	84.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	68.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-623,151	657,644	-34,493
– Gross Longs:	235,968	3,471,933	326,120
– Gross Shorts:	859,119	2,814,289	360,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	86.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	4.4	15.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -411,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -383,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	79.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-411,358	488,454	-77,096
– Gross Longs:	355,989	3,095,025	350,630
– Gross Shorts:	767,347	2,606,571	427,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	79.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	15.3	-3.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	78.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	65.3	16.4
– Net Position:	-98,270	193,388	-95,118
– Gross Longs:	153,296	1,138,679	142,921
– Gross Shorts:	251,566	945,291	238,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.9	89.9	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	8.7	-9.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -157,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -169,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.0	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	68.0	12.3
– Net Position:	-157,385	129,734	27,651
– Gross Longs:	66,962	935,742	173,392
– Gross Shorts:	224,347	806,008	145,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	56.9	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	22.4	-7.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -371,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -364,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	83.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	59.6	9.1
– Net Position:	-371,406	338,409	32,997
– Gross Longs:	63,917	1,176,415	161,277
– Gross Shorts:	435,323	838,006	128,280
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	79.1	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	3.7	-20.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

14 Jan

Live Cattle leads Soft Commodities Speculator bets while Corn & Sugar bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (9,505 contracts) with Cotton (1,485 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,142 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-40,779 contracts), Corn (-33,737 contracts), Coffee (-13,927 contracts), Lean Hogs (-17,857 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,591 contracts), Soybeans (-8,311 contracts), Wheat (-7,425 contracts) and Cocoa (-617 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Live Cattle speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Live Cattle gained this week for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time over the past seven weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Live Cattle (currently at +79,994 contracts) to the highest level in the past forty-six weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022.

The Live Cattle futures prices have continued to trade in a sustained uptrend with prices closing higher in each of the past seven months. Recently, the Live Cattle futures front month price touched its highest level since 2015 with a high right below the $160 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,557,092	14	205,236	0	-225,502	100	20,266	33
Gold	481,519	16	150,535	33	-172,478	66	21,943	35
Silver	129,961	7	29,013	46	-42,925	55	13,912	40
Copper	186,383	29	10,227	44	-16,253	54	6,026	60
Palladium	8,352	12	-2,490	11	2,337	85	153	51
Platinum	72,216	43	30,702	50	-34,346	53	3,644	17
Natural Gas	1,070,386	22	-172,503	27	143,506	76	28,997	49
Brent	140,391	4	-26,209	62	22,463	35	3,746	60
Heating Oil	260,845	20	16,769	67	-35,035	34	18,266	62
Soybeans	620,659	10	140,328	55	-104,166	57	-36,162	10
Corn	1,214,817	4	233,795	60	-182,611	46	-51,184	16
Coffee	210,169	19	-14,739	2	11,310	96	3,429	47
Sugar	905,839	39	187,713	58	-232,509	36	44,796	63
Wheat	334,538	20	-39,716	0	43,529	100	-3,813	91

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (60 percent), Sugar (58 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (21 percent) and the Lean Hogs (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (59.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.2 percent)
Sugar (58.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (72.5 percent)
Coffee (1.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (54.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (57.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (45.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (51.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (99.4 percent)
Live Cattle (79.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.3 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.8 percent)
Cocoa (43.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (0.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.5 percent)

Live Cattle & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Cocoa (17 percent) and Sugar (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-12 percent), Wheat (-6 percent) and Corn (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-4.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.4 percent)
Sugar (3.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.9 percent)
Coffee (-0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (17.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (26.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (26.8 percent)
Live Cattle (32.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-11.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cotton (1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.0 percent)
Cocoa (17.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.4 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 233,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 267,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	46.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.2	13.8
– Net Position:	233,795	-182,611	-51,184
– Gross Longs:	332,822	561,153	116,990
– Gross Shorts:	99,027	743,764	168,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	45.9	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	6.9	-8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 228,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	69.8	5.0
– Net Position:	187,713	-232,509	44,796
– Gross Longs:	274,296	399,818	90,034
– Gross Shorts:	86,583	632,327	45,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	36.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.8	1.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	51.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	46.4	3.9
– Net Position:	-14,739	11,310	3,429
– Gross Longs:	48,809	108,900	11,598
– Gross Shorts:	63,548	97,590	8,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	96.2	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-2.6	34.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 140,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	48.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	65.5	12.8
– Net Position:	140,328	-104,166	-36,162
– Gross Longs:	187,837	302,217	42,977
– Gross Shorts:	47,509	406,383	79,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	57.0	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-13.8	-17.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	49.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	68.2	6.4
– Net Position:	62,099	-71,356	9,257
– Gross Longs:	91,252	183,263	33,103
– Gross Shorts:	29,153	254,619	23,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	55.3	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	28.6	-14.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 157,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	31.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	76.0	6.3
– Net Position:	157,710	-180,580	22,870
– Gross Longs:	171,785	130,280	48,473
– Gross Shorts:	14,075	310,860	25,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-27.4	15.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	27.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.1	12.7
– Net Position:	79,994	-72,962	-7,032
– Gross Longs:	132,029	88,511	33,907
– Gross Shorts:	52,035	161,473	40,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	13.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.5	-28.0	-21.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	36.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	47.1	13.3
– Net Position:	25,769	-19,358	-6,411
– Gross Longs:	65,146	70,042	18,949
– Gross Shorts:	39,377	89,400	25,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.7	73.8	72.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	7.6	21.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	49.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	59.5	5.7
– Net Position:	17,944	-19,936	1,992
– Gross Longs:	58,104	99,886	13,474
– Gross Shorts:	40,160	119,822	11,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-1.2	2.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	44.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	54.9	3.2
– Net Position:	27,221	-31,199	3,978
– Gross Longs:	94,218	132,109	13,616
– Gross Shorts:	66,997	163,308	9,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	56.6	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-17.7	3.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	42.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	29.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-39,716	43,529	-3,813
– Gross Longs:	87,085	140,763	33,599
– Gross Shorts:	126,801	97,234	37,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	100.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.6	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

14 Jan

Stock Market Speculators nudge up Russell, Dow Jones & push SP500 bets more bearish

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Russell-Mini (7,233 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (2,749 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-45,873 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-9,513 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,413 contracts) and the VIX (-4,807 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,032,566	3	-213,174	17	202,933	77	10,241	29
Nikkei 225	11,991	4	-2,719	65	2,717	43	2	28
Nasdaq-Mini	253,625	44	-8,151	70	13,928	35	-5,777	41
DowJones-Mini	77,628	39	-9,142	29	12,647	74	-3,505	23
VIX	301,215	34	-72,807	64	79,810	38	-7,003	57
Nikkei 225 Yen	41,161	23	9,085	62	-901	8	-8,184	64

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (70 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (17 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (64.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (16.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (25.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (70.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (75.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (34.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (30.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.1 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets and is the only positive mover this week.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-4.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-3.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-3.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-4.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-0.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-5.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -72,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	56.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	30.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-72,807	79,810	-7,003
– Gross Longs:	50,080	170,766	19,207
– Gross Shorts:	122,887	90,956	26,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	38.0	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	4.3	-5.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -213,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop by -45,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	74.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	64.5	11.2
– Net Position:	-213,174	202,933	10,241
– Gross Longs:	243,503	1,512,933	236,946
– Gross Shorts:	456,677	1,310,000	226,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	77.3	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	0.2	1.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	47.8	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	31.5	20.4
– Net Position:	-9,142	12,647	-3,505
– Gross Longs:	25,943	37,120	12,296
– Gross Shorts:	35,085	24,473	15,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	74.4	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	-0.3	16.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	61.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	56.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-8,151	13,928	-5,777
– Gross Longs:	57,068	156,031	32,962
– Gross Shorts:	65,219	142,103	38,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	35.1	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	8.6	7.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -58,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	82.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	70.1	4.9
– Net Position:	-58,128	54,539	3,589
– Gross Longs:	44,813	357,515	24,756
– Gross Shorts:	102,941	302,976	21,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	63.9	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	0.9	-3.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	52.2	23.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	29.5	23.7
– Net Position:	-2,719	2,717	2
– Gross Longs:	2,886	6,257	2,848
– Gross Shorts:	5,605	3,540	2,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	43.2	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	6.5	-6.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	91.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	89.5	1.7
– Net Position:	-13,409	6,968	6,441
– Gross Longs:	15,571	318,983	12,299
– Gross Shorts:	28,980	312,015	5,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	68.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-18.2	18.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jan

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, SOL, AVAX). Overview for 13.01.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC grew to 18,813 USD. Weekly growth amounts to 11.9%.

As long as the market closed the previous session above the resistance level at 18,500 USD, buyers may freely set new goals. Now they may reach 21,500-22,000 USD.

Currently, the BTC correlates with the US stock indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq) by more than 80%. This means that the anticipated slow-down in increasing the US interest rate is good not only for stocks but for crypto as well.

Is it crypto spring at last?..

Capitalisation of the crypto sector on Friday grew to 904,108 billion USD, the BTC taking up 40.1% already, and the ETH – 19.1%.

Solana activity increased

The SOL sky-rocketed to two-month peaks because the network got active. Transaction volumes and the number of active accounts returned to the highs of the last four months. The number of active addresses amounts to 240 thousand.

BTC is becoming more complex

On 15 January, the BTC network will live through a record increase in complexity of mining. First thing, the hashrate will grow, i.e. more hashes will be needed for mining a BTC block.

AVAX reacted to news about Amazon

The price of the AVAX token grew noticeably after on the Internet they spoke about cooperation of Amazon Web Services (AWS) with Ava Labs. This is meant to implement blockchain technology deeper in enterprises and governments.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

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