InvestMacro

Currency Speculators trim US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (10,346 contracts) with the British Pound (3,700 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,014 contracts), the EuroFX (1,023 contracts), Brazilian Real (651 contracts), Bitcoin (633 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (577 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (338 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-4,306 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-4,419 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,751 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the increased bearishness of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

Large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now subtracted a total of -3,631 net contracts from the overall position over the last four weeks. This bearishness has pushed the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +10,513 contracts) to the lowest level of the past 93 weeks, dating back to July 6th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been in bullish territory dating back to June 29th of 2021 with the most bullish point of the cycle taking place on June 21st of 2022 with a high of +45,010 contracts. Since then, speculator positions have slowly eroded and have now been under the +20,000 net contract level for the past 18 weeks in a row.

The US Dollar Index futures price has been on the defensive as well with this week being the first weekly advance over the past eight weeks. The front-month futures price closed this week around 101.50 and is down around 4 percent since February while also being down over 10 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,865	34	10,513	42	-11,955	57	1,442	32
EUR	766,374	80	164,361	82	-213,285	18	48,924	57
GBP	224,536	52	1,302	70	-7,995	29	6,693	71
JPY	177,507	33	-56,869	34	61,645	66	-4,776	44
CHF	40,870	38	-4,720	42	3,386	51	1,334	62
CAD	148,638	29	-46,233	11	42,194	85	4,039	32
AUD	159,708	57	-42,356	46	50,557	57	-8,201	32
NZD	33,377	16	-3,904	43	3,717	55	187	54
MXN	267,698	61	56,171	91	-60,884	10	4,713	85
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,883	42	13,596	53	-14,778	46	1,182	53
Bitcoin	15,385	76	-489	68	-176	0	665	28

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (91 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the Brazilian Real (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.1 percent)
EuroFX (81.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (67.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (33.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (36.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (45.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (49.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (91.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (94.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.3 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (57.4 percent)

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the British Pound (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (11 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-21 percent), Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-4.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-15.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-25.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-31.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (66.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (72.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-21.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-24.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-9.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 10,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,264 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	9.7	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	44.0	10.0
– Net Position:	10,513	-11,955	1,442
– Gross Longs:	25,192	3,371	4,940
– Gross Shorts:	14,679	15,326	3,498
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	56.8	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.8	-17.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 164,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,023 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	54.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.3	5.4
– Net Position:	164,361	-213,285	48,924
– Gross Longs:	242,369	417,586	90,436
– Gross Shorts:	78,008	630,871	41,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	18.4	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-3.6	-8.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	56.9	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	60.4	10.7
– Net Position:	1,302	-7,995	6,693
– Gross Longs:	53,834	127,731	30,745
– Gross Shorts:	52,532	135,726	24,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	28.7	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-28.5	45.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	74.8	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	40.1	18.0
– Net Position:	-56,869	61,645	-4,776
– Gross Longs:	15,661	132,747	27,108
– Gross Shorts:	72,530	71,102	31,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.9	65.7	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-13.6	19.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	44.4	37.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	36.1	33.9
– Net Position:	-4,720	3,386	1,334
– Gross Longs:	5,347	18,138	15,185
– Gross Shorts:	10,067	14,752	13,851
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	50.6	62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-18.9	41.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	64.9	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	36.5	19.2
– Net Position:	-46,233	42,194	4,039
– Gross Longs:	17,806	96,421	32,592
– Gross Shorts:	64,039	54,227	28,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.4	84.9	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	1.9	31.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	55.5	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.5	23.8	18.0
– Net Position:	-42,356	50,557	-8,201
– Gross Longs:	44,610	88,628	20,500
– Gross Shorts:	86,966	38,071	28,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	56.6	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	10.9	7.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,481 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	55.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.3	44.2	10.7
– Net Position:	-3,904	3,717	187
– Gross Longs:	10,876	18,474	3,757
– Gross Shorts:	14,780	14,757	3,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	55.3	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.8	17.7	23.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,477 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	45.0	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	67.7	1.0
– Net Position:	56,171	-60,884	4,713
– Gross Longs:	139,289	120,371	7,352
– Gross Shorts:	83,118	181,255	2,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.1	9.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	66.2	-61.5	-8.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 13,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,945 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.2	18.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	46.5	6.4
– Net Position:	13,596	-14,778	1,182
– Gross Longs:	37,991	9,365	4,527
– Gross Shorts:	24,395	24,143	3,345
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	46.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.0	22.7	-15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	3.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.8	4.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-489	-176	665
– Gross Longs:	11,629	517	1,368
– Gross Shorts:	12,118	693	703
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	51.2	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	-1.1	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Apr

Bonds Speculators drop their 10-Year Treasury bets to a 237-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (598,254 contracts) which, as noted last week, is being phased out and replaced by the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR 3-Months) contracts. The rise in Eurodollar bets was due to traders closing out their bearish positions while the SOFR 3-Months contracts saw a similar rise in bearish contracts this week.

The other markets with gains this week were the Fed Funds (48,557 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (15,656 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (7,479 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (277 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-466,948 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (-78,073 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-41,044 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-9,612 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bond Speculators drop bets to 237-week low

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the weakness in the 10-Year Bonds speculator net contracts. Large speculative 10-Year Bond positions fell this week by over -40,000 net contracts and have declined for three straight weeks as well as in four out of the past five weeks. The 10-Year Bond net position has now seen a total of -172,715 contracts added to the existing bearish standing over this past five week period.

The 10-Year positions have now fallen (currently at -680,081 contracts) to the most bearish level since October 2nd of 2018, a span of 237 weeks from when the net position totaled -740,192 contracts.

Overall, the 10-Year speculator net positions have now been in a continuous bearish level for 80 straight weeks, dating back to October 12th of 2021 when the net position flipped from bullish to bearish. Since that time, the net position has steadily increased in bearishness (save for a couple of short pullbacks) as the sentiment for bonds has been decimated due to the US Federal Reserve raising their benchmark interest rate (to fight inflation). Despite the current outlook (Fed Rate Tool) that the Federal Reserve will likely only raise the interest rate one more time in May, speculators have continued to raise their bearish bets for the 10-Year.

The 10-Year front-month futures price, meanwhile, has not dropped back to the lowest levels of this cycle. The price closed at 114.15 this week and is almost 5 percent higher than the lows of October when prices dropped to the 108 levels.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	603,310	0	-51,231	73	47,522	23	3,709	100
FedFunds	1,728,594	66	-118,719	25	130,563	76	-11,844	68
2-Year	2,642,314	78	-574,914	16	520,558	81	54,356	82
Long T-Bond	1,185,802	54	-116,928	47	46,235	27	70,693	100
10-Year	4,393,559	92	-680,081	0	638,740	90	41,341	94
5-Year	4,472,642	99	-754,502	3	716,633	93	37,869	91

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (73 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (47 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (44 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (25.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (3.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (46.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (41.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
Eurodollar (72.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (57.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (81.6 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (44 percent) and the Eurodollar (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (18 percent) and are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (15.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (0.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (20.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-14.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (11.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.9 percent)
Eurodollar (23.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (9.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (43.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.2 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -51,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 598,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -649,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	60.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	52.7	10.5
– Net Position:	-51,231	47,522	3,709
– Gross Longs:	158,876	365,308	67,086
– Gross Shorts:	210,107	317,786	63,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	22.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-27.2	52.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -626,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -466,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -159,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	65.0	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	58.3	0.6
– Net Position:	-626,388	627,991	-1,603
– Gross Longs:	1,301,626	6,103,493	54,601
– Gross Shorts:	1,928,014	5,475,502	56,204
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	56.3	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-43.7	-0.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -118,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 48,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	79.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	72.2	3.0
– Net Position:	-118,719	130,563	-11,844
– Gross Longs:	70,694	1,377,903	40,832
– Gross Shorts:	189,413	1,247,340	52,676
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.0	75.7	67.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-15.2	3.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -574,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -78,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -496,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	62.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-574,914	520,558	54,356
– Gross Longs:	227,652	2,173,300	221,790
– Gross Shorts:	802,566	1,652,742	167,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	80.6	81.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-11.5	18.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -754,502 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -761,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	84.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	68.4	7.4
– Net Position:	-754,502	716,633	37,869
– Gross Longs:	270,063	3,775,123	366,773
– Gross Shorts:	1,024,565	3,058,490	328,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.0	93.3	91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	-1.9	31.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -680,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -41,044 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -639,037 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	63.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-680,081	638,740	41,341
– Gross Longs:	473,072	3,439,022	395,955
– Gross Shorts:	1,153,153	2,800,282	354,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	90.1	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	-4.1	39.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -206,583 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -196,971 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	79.8	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	62.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-206,583	286,593	-80,010
– Gross Longs:	140,107	1,286,225	166,166
– Gross Shorts:	346,690	999,632	246,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.6	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	-4.4	20.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -116,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -132,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	79.0	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	75.1	8.9
– Net Position:	-116,928	46,235	70,693
– Gross Longs:	69,031	936,757	175,995
– Gross Shorts:	185,959	890,522	105,302
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	27.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-39.8	40.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -399,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	82.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	58.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-399,001	347,521	51,480
– Gross Longs:	78,030	1,176,217	169,143
– Gross Shorts:	477,031	828,696	117,663
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	76.7	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-23.3	21.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

22 Apr

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Sugar bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (14,357 contracts) with Coffee (12,124 contracts), Sugar (9,384 contracts), Cotton (7,749 contracts), Live Cattle (7,456 contracts) and Corn (2,327 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybeans (-1,836 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-3,065 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,095 contracts), Wheat (-3,854 contracts) and Cocoa (-558 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Sugar Speculators boost bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued bullish strength in the Sugar speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Sugar rose this week for the fourth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators have added a total of +58,516 contracts to the net position over the past 4-week period.

The bullish sentiment has now pushed the Sugar net speculator positions to their highest level in the past 84-weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2021.

Sugar’s speculator strength score level (a 3-year range of speculator positions, on a 0-100 percent scale) has also increased with a score of 86.5 percent this week and up from a score of 83.3 percent last week. Its 6-week trend of strength scores has increased by 10 percent.

The Sugar futures price has also been flying high and touched its highest level since April of 2012 this week. The Sugar front-month futures price has risen for five consecutive weeks and closed at approximately $24.83 on Friday. Sugar futures are now up by over 40 percent since October.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,913,192	46	244,575	21	-273,247	78	28,672	47
Gold	482,254	28	189,893	61	-216,425	40	26,532	46
Silver	158,371	46	26,595	56	-38,656	47	12,061	33
Copper	206,216	47	8,934	36	-16,280	60	7,346	65
Palladium	11,848	82	-5,637	13	6,151	89	-514	11
Platinum	63,794	53	24,319	72	-28,202	35	3,883	20
Natural Gas	1,330,947	74	-139,986	16	111,893	84	28,093	47
Brent	146,384	10	-43,322	20	39,827	80	3,495	56
Heating Oil	260,459	20	8,865	43	-24,987	65	16,122	54
Soybeans	683,161	24	177,510	59	-149,491	45	-28,019	25
Corn	1,319,551	17	105,636	44	-41,244	66	-64,392	14
Coffee	190,253	5	37,001	65	-38,309	38	1,308	28
Sugar	961,060	62	269,172	86	-326,198	10	57,026	78
Wheat	378,531	54	-70,536	2	65,243	95	5,293	98

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (98 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (86 percent), Soybean Meal (76 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (2 percent) and the Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (43.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.2 percent)
Sugar (86.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (83.3 percent)
Coffee (65.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (52.9 percent)
Soybeans (58.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (75.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.1 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (84.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.7 percent)
Cotton (12.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (97.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.3 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (22 percent) and Sugar (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (6 percent) and Wheat (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-21 percent), Lean Hogs (-17 percent) and Live Cattle (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (0.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.1 percent)
Sugar (9.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (12.4 percent)
Coffee (22.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybeans (-1.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (8.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-20.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-22.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-22.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-7.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.9 percent)
Cotton (-1.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-3.8 percent)
Cocoa (5.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.7 percent)
Wheat (2.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 105,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	48.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	51.3	13.2
– Net Position:	105,636	-41,244	-64,392
– Gross Longs:	340,625	635,232	109,200
– Gross Shorts:	234,989	676,476	173,592
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	66.0	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	0.4	-4.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 269,172 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.5	40.1	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	74.1	5.1
– Net Position:	269,172	-326,198	57,026
– Gross Longs:	340,696	385,588	105,872
– Gross Shorts:	71,524	711,786	48,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	9.6	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-10.5	10.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	44.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	64.3	3.8
– Net Position:	37,001	-38,309	1,308
– Gross Longs:	55,542	83,982	8,620
– Gross Shorts:	18,541	122,291	7,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	37.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-22.3	6.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 177,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,836 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	43.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	65.2	11.0
– Net Position:	177,510	-149,491	-28,019
– Gross Longs:	219,301	296,149	47,114
– Gross Shorts:	41,791	445,640	75,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	45.1	25.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-2.8	18.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	58.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	57.3	6.1
– Net Position:	-9,451	6,944	2,507
– Gross Longs:	72,093	282,065	31,891
– Gross Shorts:	81,544	275,121	29,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.4	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.6	17.2	6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 130,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	36.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	68.7	7.1
– Net Position:	130,269	-146,880	16,611
– Gross Longs:	152,035	165,430	48,978
– Gross Shorts:	21,766	312,310	32,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	25.9	21.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	25.9	-12.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.4	25.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	52.6	12.6
– Net Position:	102,072	-92,780	-9,292
– Gross Longs:	155,956	88,017	33,970
– Gross Shorts:	53,884	180,797	43,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	8.7	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	8.7	-3.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	36.1	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	26.1	11.0
– Net Position:	-27,157	23,443	3,714
– Gross Longs:	65,671	84,339	29,502
– Gross Shorts:	92,828	60,896	25,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	15.0	19.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,279 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	45.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	50.1	6.3
– Net Position:	4,470	-7,229	2,759
– Gross Longs:	55,156	77,142	13,335
– Gross Shorts:	50,686	84,371	10,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.1	85.5	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	-0.7	15.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 59,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	33.3	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	52.7	3.3
– Net Position:	59,355	-64,143	4,788
– Gross Longs:	131,355	110,050	15,617
– Gross Shorts:	72,000	174,193	10,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	1.6	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.6	4.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	37.9	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	20.7	9.7
– Net Position:	-70,536	65,243	5,293
– Gross Longs:	105,806	143,559	42,074
– Gross Shorts:	176,342	78,316	36,781
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.3	94.6	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	-5.4	11.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

22 Apr

Copper Speculator bets go bullish for first time since February

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,237 contracts) with Platinum (10,986 contracts), Silver (2,877 contracts), Palladium (1,436 contracts) and Steel (329 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Gold with a drop of -2,852 contracts on the week.

Copper bets go bullish for first time since February

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the renewed bullishness for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by over +13,000 contracts this week and are higher for the third time in the past five weeks.

Copper speculative bets have now gained by a total of +23,090 contracts over the past five weeks, going from a bearish net position of -14,156 contracts on March 14th to this week’s net position of +8,934 contracts. This week was the first time that net positions crossed over into bullish territory since February and Copper’s sentiment has been helped out by China’s economic reopening which uses the metal for many types of manufacturing and industry.

The Copper front-month futures price dipped this week but has been higher in the three of the past five weeks, continuing an uptrend since bottoming in July of 2022. Copper futures have gained by approximately 25 percent since that recent bottom in July and closed this week just below the $4.00 per pound major price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	482,254	28	189,893	61	-216,425	40	26,532	46
Silver	158,371	46	26,595	56	-38,656	47	12,061	33
Copper	206,216	47	8,934	36	-16,280	60	7,346	65
Palladium	11,848	82	-5,637	13	6,151	89	-514	11
Platinum	63,794	53	24,319	72	-28,202	35	3,883	20

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (72 percent) and Gold (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (60.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.9 percent)
Silver (56.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (36.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.6 percent)
Platinum (71.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (46.4 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.2 percent)
Steel (59.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (58.4 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (49 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (40 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (40.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (37.0 percent)
Silver (49.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.9 percent)
Copper (14.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.6 percent)
Platinum (44.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (18.5 percent)
Palladium (13.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.7 percent)
Steel (-1.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-4.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 189,893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,852 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 192,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.9	25.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	70.5	5.0
– Net Position:	189,893	-216,425	26,532
– Gross Longs:	260,061	123,496	50,647
– Gross Shorts:	70,168	339,921	24,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	40.4	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.2	-37.7	15.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	32.8	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	57.2	8.4
– Net Position:	26,595	-38,656	12,061
– Gross Longs:	62,968	51,891	25,438
– Gross Shorts:	36,373	90,547	13,377
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	47.1	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.1	-40.0	-7.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 8,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	43.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	51.1	5.6
– Net Position:	8,934	-16,280	7,346
– Gross Longs:	67,262	89,131	18,851
– Gross Shorts:	58,328	105,411	11,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	59.6	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-13.0	-8.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.9	28.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	72.7	5.0
– Net Position:	24,319	-28,202	3,883
– Gross Longs:	35,028	18,147	7,076
– Gross Shorts:	10,709	46,349	3,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	35.2	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-40.0	2.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	67.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.7	15.5	13.5
– Net Position:	-5,637	6,151	-514
– Gross Longs:	1,912	7,988	1,084
– Gross Shorts:	7,549	1,837	1,598
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	4.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	88.8	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-10.6	-11.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	76.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	60.3	0.5
– Net Position:	-4,779	4,632	147
– Gross Longs:	3,671	22,409	303
– Gross Shorts:	8,450	17,777	156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.3	40.5	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	1.8	-25.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

22 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (4,803 contracts) with MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,708 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,645 contracts) with the VIX (-14,395 contracts), Russell-Mini (-14,031 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-2,751 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,278,321	21	-344,257	0	359,830	98	-15,573	24
Nikkei 225	11,716	4	-2,556	61	1,555	40	1,001	41
Nasdaq-Mini	245,059	38	2,673	77	6,417	30	-9,090	36
DowJones-Mini	96,061	57	-24,397	11	29,345	93	-4,948	20
VIX	391,654	85	-63,761	69	65,590	28	-1,829	87
Nikkei 225 Yen	42,204	25	6,610	54	14,390	50	-21,000	36

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77 percent) and the VIX (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (61 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (69.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (18.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (76.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (73.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (36.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (21.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 Yen (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-31 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-1.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-30.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (4.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	53.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	36.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-63,761	65,590	-1,829
– Gross Longs:	79,608	210,030	25,841
– Gross Shorts:	143,369	144,440	27,670
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.0	27.5	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	2.0	-5.9

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -344,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	77.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	61.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-344,257	359,830	-15,573
– Gross Longs:	204,558	1,764,361	241,651
– Gross Shorts:	548,815	1,404,531	257,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	98.4	23.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.2	18.5	2.7

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	66.9	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	36.4	17.9
– Net Position:	-24,397	29,345	-4,948
– Gross Longs:	18,896	64,305	12,225
– Gross Shorts:	43,293	34,960	17,173
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	93.4	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.8	23.8	-0.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.0	60.1	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	57.4	18.0
– Net Position:	2,673	6,417	-9,090
– Gross Longs:	58,753	147,191	35,128
– Gross Shorts:	56,080	140,774	44,218
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.5	30.4	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-18.3	27.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -59,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	83.9	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	71.1	5.1
– Net Position:	-59,162	64,474	-5,312
– Gross Longs:	51,876	422,606	20,475
– Gross Shorts:	111,038	358,132	25,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	66.7	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	10.8	-33.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	48.6	33.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	35.4	24.5
– Net Position:	-2,556	1,555	1,001
– Gross Longs:	2,147	5,697	3,872
– Gross Shorts:	4,703	4,142	2,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	39.8	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.8	-5.3	1.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	89.1	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	86.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-16,652	10,731	5,921
– Gross Longs:	29,950	350,488	11,085
– Gross Shorts:	46,602	339,757	5,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	72.0	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	13.5	2.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

21 Apr

EU’s landmark crypto legislation will drive cryptocurrency prices

By George Prior

The EU Parliament’s passing of the Markets in Crypto Act, or MiCA, on Thursday has been hailed as a “landmark moment” for cryptocurrencies that will “help drive prices” for the likes of Bitcoin, by the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The comments from Nigel Green of deVere Group, come as Stefan Berger, the MEP who led the bill’s creation, said in an emailed statement that Europe is now the “first continent with comprehensive regulation for crypto assets.”

“In order for new coins to be approved in the EU, it must be ensured in future that their business model will not endanger our currency stability,” he said. “The new supervisory structures will also be a bulwark against Lehman Brothers moments like the crypto exchange FTX.”

The MiCA legislation means that the EU will have a unified approach to crypto asset regulation across all 27 member states, meaning firms approved in one country can “passport” their operations into others.

The deVere CEO says: “This is a landmark moment for crypto. It signals the maturing of the market and underscores that cryptocurrencies are now mainstream.

“Crypto has now come of age in Europe as it is being brought into the regulatory tent and being held to the same standards as the rest of the financial system.”

Nigel Green has long-been campaigning for regulation of the cryptocurrency market since he launched deVere Crypto, a pioneering crypto exchange in 2018.

“We’ve been lobbying authorities on this issue as greater regulatory scrutiny is needed as digital currencies, including Bitcoin and Ether, are set to play an ever-greater role in the international financial system.

“We’ve been pushing for a strong regulatory framework to be established and approved at an international level.

“As such, we’re thrilled that the EU, the world’s largest trading bloc, voted 517 to 38 in favour of the Markets in Crypto Act, or MiCA, as it seeks to reduce risks for consumers buying crypto assets, meaning providers can become liable if they lose investors’ crypto assets.”

He continues that with clear and consistent legislation in place, investors will have “more confidence in the market and feel more secure” in their investments.

“This will further attract more institutional investors who bring with them huge levels of capital, experience and influence, which can help increase demand and drive up prices in the long-term.”

The regulation will help reduce fraudulent activities in the market, serving to “improve the wider reputation of the industry and increase mass adoption” which will also maintain crypto prices on an upward trajectory.

The new rules are expected to be in force from next year.

The move puts the EU ahead of the US and UK, which are yet to bring in legislation for the crypto market. However, a UK official on Monday said regulation could be implemented within a year.

Nigel Green says: “The US and UK now have the opportunity to catch up with the EU on crypto regulation, which they inevitably will do – and probably sooner than many expect.

“Again, this must be welcomed as it will protect investors, tackle cryptocurrency criminality, and reduce the potential possibility of disrupting global financial stability, as well as offering a potential long-term economic boost to those jurisdictions which introduce it.”

He concludes: “Digital is the inevitable future of finance. Therefore, the proactive, forward-thinking work being done by central banks and governments, among others, in this area must be championed.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

21 Apr

The Bank of Japan will follow a soft policy course. Most company reports missed estimates

By JustMarkets

At the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.80% yesterday. Sentiment for risky assets, including stocks, worsened due to recent economic data showing further weakness in manufacturing and an increase in jobless claims. The weaker data exacerbated fears of a deeper economic slowdown at a time when the Federal Reserve continues to be inclined to raise rates further.

FOMC spokeswoman Mester indicated yesterday that she was pleased with the progress made but pointed out that inflation remains too high. In Mester’s view, interest rates should move a little further into restriction territory, and the degree of further tightening depends on economic and monetary policy assessments. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker warned Thursday that US interest rates are likely to rise further and stay that way longer, even if economic activity weakens. The current probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the next Fed meeting is 81%.

Tesla (TSLA) stock is down by 11% after the electric carmaker reported earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations. The company’s margins declined because of a recent string of price cuts. Concerns about margins intensified after CEO Elon Musk announced further spending cuts to boost sales. Shares of AT&T Inc (T), a major component of the Dow Jones Index, fell more than 10% amid concerns about the company’s ability to meet its forecasts and mixed quarterly results suggesting earnings missed estimates.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.62%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.14%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.46%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Thursday up by 0.05%.

ECB President Christine Lagarde hinted that the ECB would not stop fighting inflation. The March minutes of the ECB’s monetary policy meeting indicated that policymakers have not yet decided on the size of the rate hike at the next meeting, but given the latest Eurozone inflation data, there is a high probability that the ECB will raise the rate by 0.5% in May.

The French government has outlined a plan to accelerate debt reduction, which will require the government to make unpopular spending cuts. The budget deficit will be smaller than previously forecast. But it should be noted that raising the minimum retirement age by two years has greatly reduced support for the current government and strengthened opposition parties that reject budget cuts.

Oil prices fell about $2 a barrel to their lowest level since late March. Fears that a possible recession could reduce demand for fuel, as well as an increase in gasoline inventories in the US, are negative factors for oil prices.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.18%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.85%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.14% on the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.03%, while Australian S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 0.04% on the day.

The Bank of Japan is eyeing the idea of changing its controversial bond yield control policy later this year but is likely to leave policy unchanged at next week’s meeting as it awaits new evidence of sustained wage growth. Kazuo Ueda will hold his first meeting as governor on April 27-28, and his appointment has heightened expectations that the bank will begin to roll back its ultra-soft settings.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,129.79 −24.73 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,786.62 −110.39 (−0.33%)

DAX (DE40) 15,795.97 −99.23 (−0.62%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,902.61 +3.84 (+0.049%)

USD Index 101.82 −0.15 −0.15%

Important events for today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Apr

Week Ahead: “Big M.A.M.A.” to weigh on NQ100_m

By ForexTime

Four Big Tech companies, with a combined market cap of over US$ 5 trillion (that’s $5,000,000,000,000), are set to release their respective quarterly earnings in the coming week.

The final week of April also features these scheduled economic data releases and events:

Monday, April 24

EUR: Germany April IFO business climate
Walt Disney may cut thousands of jobs this week
Q1 earnings from embattled banks: Credit Suisse, First Republic Bank

Tuesday, April 25

USD: US April consumer confidence
NQ100_m: Microsoft, Alphabet Q1 earnings (after US markets close)

Wednesday, April 26

NZD: New Zealand March external trade
AUD: Australia March CPI
CAD: Bank of Canada releases April meeting minutes
NQ100_m: Meta Q1 earnings (after US markets close)

Thursday, April 27

EUR: Eurozone April economic confidence
USD: US 1Q GDP; weekly initial jobless claims
NQ100_m: Amazon Q1 earnings (after US markets close)

Friday, April 28

JPY: Bank of Japan rate decision; April Tokyo CPI; Japan March industrial production, retail sales, and unemployment
EUR: Eurozone 1Q GDP; Germany April CPI
USD: US March PCE Deflator, personal income and spending

How big is “Big M.A.M.A.”?

First, a quick reminder about the sheer size of these tech giants that are due to report their Q1 earnings.

Here’s their respective market cap as of US market’s close on Thursday, April 20:

(Market capitalization = how much each company is valued by the markets)

Microsoft: US$ 2.130 trillion
Alphabet: US$ 1.352 trillion
Amazon: US$ 1.064 trillion
Meta: US$ 0.5466 trillion

What to look out for from these Big Tech announcements?

Economic headwinds dampening earnings?

Fears of a looming global recession are set to weigh negatively on the core businesses of these Big Tech companies:

Microsoft is already facing a structural slowdown in the PC industry
Alphabet’s ad business may see a pullback from customers in the financial sector from last month’s banking turmoil
Meta’s Facebook is experiencing weakening engagement
Amazon’s core business of selling goods across the US has lost money for the last 5 consecutive quarters

The challenging economic backdrop is also expected to be a drag on demand for cloud computing services out of Microsoft (Azure), Amazon (AWS), and Alphabet (Google Cloud) – which have been key earnings drivers for these respective companies.

Job cuts: boost to the bottom line?

Here are the headline figures for the intended number of jobs to be slashed according to announcements made in Q1 2023:

Microsoft: 10,000 jobs (5% of its workforce)
Amazon: 18,000 jobs (1% of total employees)
Meta: 10,000 jobs (accumulated 25% of workforce, including the 11k jobs, or 13% of its workforce, already removed back in November 2022)
Alphabet: 12,000 jobs (6% of global workforce)

Ultimately, fundamentally-driven investors want to know whether such cost-cutting measures are having the desired effect of propping up the company’s financials amidst these challenging times.

ChatGPT: the AI race is on

The buzz surrounding ChatGPT/AI technologies have certainly contributed to the double-digit gains for Big Tech stocks so far in 2023.

Markets will be eager to find out how soon before the hype can turn into a profits boost, and whether each of these tech companies have enough of an edge in this red-hot AI race.

How much could these stocks move post-earnings?

Here are the forecasted moves for each stock, either upwards or downwards, on the trading day after their respective financial announcements:

Microsoft: 3.7% move on Wednesday, April 25th
Alphabet: 5.45% move on Wednesday, April 25th
Meta: 9% move on Thursday, April 27th
Amazon: 6.54% move on Friday, April 28th

(% figures as of Friday, April 21st before US markets open)

Why would NQ100_m react to these Big Tech earnings?

Note that every single one of these behemoths (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta) are members of the tech-heavy index, the Nasdaq 100, which is the underlying asset tracked by the NQ100_m.

Their combined market cap of US$5.09 trillion accounts for one-third of the Nasdaq 100’s market cap of US$15.03 trillion.

Hence, the market’s collective reaction to these upcoming Big Tech earnings is set to have an outsized impact on how the NQ100_m performs in the final week of April.

How might NQ100_m react to Big Tech earnings?

Should markets react positively to these Big Tech earnings, that could send the NQ100_m above its month-to-date high at 13,242, and to a fresh 8-month peak.
However, disappointing earnings out of these tech giants may drag the NQ100_m to a lower low beneath the key 12850 support region.
This price area also contains the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from NQ100_m’s November 2021 peak down to the October 2022 trough.

To be clear, the Nasdaq 100’s year-to-date advance still stands at an impressive 18.7% so far in 2023, despite the rally having stalled so far in April.

These tech giants could do with a fundamental boost by way of better-than-expected earnings to extend that advance in share prices before April is over.

Otherwise, tech stock bulls might have to wait until the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting in early May.

A more dovish note out of the US central bank, perhaps indicating a pause on its rate hikes after its May FOMC meeting with perhaps an eye on lowering interest rates later in 2023, may just send stock market bulls racing once more and charging US stock indices higher.

On the other hand, a disappointing earnings season out of Big Tech next week, followed by still-hawkish signals out of the Fed in early May, would likely undo some of the NQ100_m’s year-to-date gains.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

20 Apr

Mobilize private finance to fight rising global food insecurity: deVere CEO

By George Prior

The war between Russia and Ukraine and the impact it has on global grain exports – which feeds billions each day – highlight the urgent need for mobilizing private funding to ensure food security, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The call-to-action from deVere Group’s chief executive, Nigel Green, comes as Citi Research reveals that Ukrainian grain harvests and exports this year could be down as much as 50% on pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, the April 2023 edition of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor shows the gradual decline over the past 10 months of global grain and oilseed prices to levels prior to the war in Ukraine.

Both Russia and Ukraine were among the top producers of grains in the world before the start of the war in February 2022.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the pandemic before it – has underscored the fragility and complexity of the world’s food supply on which billions of people live every day,” says Nigel Green.

“We expect that pressure will grow on the global food supply in the coming decade due to population growth, rising incomes in developing countries, disruption triggered by heightening geopolitical tensions, social unrest, labour shortages, soaring fertilizer costs, conflicting trade policies, and climate change.

“The current food crisis is, we believe, set to become the worst in a decade, meaning years of progress against poverty and hunger are being wiped out.”

He affirms: “We expect that over the next five years, rising food insecurity is likely to become a defining issue of our time.”

With so many variables, degrees of severity, and situations developing unexpectedly, governments alone will not be able combat the worst effects of human-triggered climate change.

“Governments are best-positioned to develop, implement and manage policy, incentives, standards, metrics and regulations. And, yes, they must also provide top-level funding,” says the deVere Group CEO.

“But due to the tens of trillions likely to be needed for structural changes to global food systems, there will remain a major funding gap if we rely solely on the public sector.”

This is especially true as governments are still stretched with the unprecedented financial fallout of the Covid pandemic, for which no country was prepared and that upended economies globally.

Therefore, says Nigel Green, it is “essential to enable, unlock and mobilize private capital as a matter of urgency.”

To do this, the deVere CEO suggests that we need “cooperation between financial advisories, insurance firms, banks, wealth and asset managers, investment companies, fintech groups, banks and auditors, amongst others, to help unlock and mobilize the trillions of dollars of private finance that is urgently required.

“Without this, the level of funds required will simply not be there.”

The World Food Programme on its website notes that, “The scale of the current global hunger and malnutrition crisis is enormous, with an expected 345.2 million people projected to be food insecure – more than double the number in 2020. This constitutes a staggering rise of 200 million people compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels… Unless the necessary resources are made available, lost lives and the reversal of hard-earned development gains will be the price to pay.”

Nigel Green concludes: “A combination of factors including war, economic upheaval and climate change means that urgent private finance inflows are essential to ensure greater levels of global food security and stability.”

About:

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Apr

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 20.04.2023 (EURUSD, USDCAD, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is pushing off the support level. The instrument is going inside the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a flat. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.0945 is expected, followed by growth to 1.1165. A signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.0880, which will mean further falling to 1.0785.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD has secured above the upper border of the descending channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 1.3410 is expected, followed by growth to 1.3655. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.3345, which will mean further falling to 1.3255.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is correcting in a bullish channel. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.6705 is expected, followed by growth to 0.6835. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6670, which will mean further falling to 0.6575.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & British Pound

Speculators reduce US Dollar Index bets to lowest level in 93-weeks

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

Mexican Peso & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Euro Currency Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Japanese Yen Futures:

Swiss Franc Futures:

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures:

Brazilian Real Futures:

Bitcoin Futures:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & Eurodollar

10-Year Bond Speculators drop bets to 237-week low

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal & Coffee

Sugar Speculators boost bullish bets for 4th week to 84-week high

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

SUGAR Futures:

COFFEE Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures:

COTTON Futures:

COCOA Futures:

WHEAT Futures:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Silver

Copper bets go bullish for first time since February

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Gold

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Silver Comex Futures:

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Platinum Futures:

Palladium Futures:

Steel Futures Futures:

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

How big is “Big M.A.M.A.”?

What to look out for from these Big Tech announcements?

Economic headwinds dampening earnings?

Job cuts: boost to the bottom line?

ChatGPT: the AI race is on

How much could these stocks move post-earnings?

Why would NQ100_m react to these Big Tech earnings?

How might NQ100_m react to Big Tech earnings?