By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Nasdaq-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini
The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (4,803 contracts) with MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,708 contracts) also having a positive week.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-36,645 contracts) with the VIX (-14,395 contracts), Russell-Mini (-14,031 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-2,751 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-442 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Apr-18-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P500-Mini | 2,278,321 | 21 | -344,257 | 0 | 359,830 | 98 | -15,573 | 24 |
| Nikkei 225 | 11,716 | 4 | -2,556 | 61 | 1,555 | 40 | 1,001 | 41 |
| Nasdaq-Mini | 245,059 | 38 | 2,673 | 77 | 6,417 | 30 | -9,090 | 36 |
| DowJones-Mini | 96,061 | 57 | -24,397 | 11 | 29,345 | 93 | -4,948 | 20 |
| VIX | 391,654 | 85 | -63,761 | 69 | 65,590 | 28 | -1,829 | 87 |
| Nikkei 225 Yen | 42,204 | 25 | 6,610 | 54 | 14,390 | 50 | -21,000 | 36 |
Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (77 percent) and the VIX (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (61 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
VIX (69.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (18.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (76.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (73.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (36.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (44.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (21.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (5 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
The Nikkei 225 Yen (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-31 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-1.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-23.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-30.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (4.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-0.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,366 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.3 | 53.6 | 6.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.6 | 36.9 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | -63,761 | 65,590 | -1,829 |
| – Gross Longs: | 79,608 | 210,030 | 25,841 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 143,369 | 144,440 | 27,670 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.0 | 27.5 | 86.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.3 | 2.0 | -5.9 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -344,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -307,612 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.0 | 77.4 | 10.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.1 | 61.6 | 11.3 |
| – Net Position: | -344,257 | 359,830 | -15,573 |
| – Gross Longs: | 204,558 | 1,764,361 | 241,651 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 548,815 | 1,404,531 | 257,224 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 98.4 | 23.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.2 | 18.5 | 2.7 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,646 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.7 | 66.9 | 12.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.1 | 36.4 | 17.9 |
| – Net Position: | -24,397 | 29,345 | -4,948 |
| – Gross Longs: | 18,896 | 64,305 | 12,225 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 43,293 | 34,960 | 17,173 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 11.5 | 93.4 | 19.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -30.8 | 23.8 | -0.2 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 2,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,130 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.0 | 60.1 | 14.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.9 | 57.4 | 18.0 |
| – Net Position: | 2,673 | 6,417 | -9,090 |
| – Gross Longs: | 58,753 | 147,191 | 35,128 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 56,080 | 140,774 | 44,218 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.5 | 30.4 | 36.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.4 | -18.3 | 27.2 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -59,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,131 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.3 | 83.9 | 4.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 22.0 | 71.1 | 5.1 |
| – Net Position: | -59,162 | 64,474 | -5,312 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,876 | 422,606 | 20,475 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 111,038 | 358,132 | 25,787 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.5 | 66.7 | 10.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.2 | 10.8 | -33.1 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.3 | 48.6 | 33.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 40.1 | 35.4 | 24.5 |
| – Net Position: | -2,556 | 1,555 | 1,001 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,147 | 5,697 | 3,872 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 4,703 | 4,142 | 2,871 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.4 | 39.8 | 40.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.8 | -5.3 | 1.1 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,652 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,360 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.6 | 89.1 | 2.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 86.4 | 1.3 |
| – Net Position: | -16,652 | 10,731 | 5,921 |
| – Gross Longs: | 29,950 | 350,488 | 11,085 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,602 | 339,757 | 5,164 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 23.9 | 72.0 | 46.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.1 | 13.5 | 2.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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