27 Jun

Stocks cautious ahead of central bank pow-wow

By ForexTime 

  • NQ100_m attempts to stabilise around 21-day SMA after recent losses
  • Recession fears weigh on “expensive” US stocks
  • Talk of further rate hikes by central bankers this week may drag US stocks even lower

US stocks futures are trying to find a more solid footing after Monday’s declines.

The 21-day simple moving average is offering immediate support on the NQ100_m index at 14,751.

Further declines may call upon the following support levels to the fore:

  • The early-June cycle high at 14,673.9 may be the next area of interest for bears (those hoping prices will move lower)
  • Further south, the 61.8% Fibonacci level from its long term (November 2021 – October 2022) peak-to-trough price action, may offer stronger support around 14,351.
    (Note that this region had offers support for this index, which tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, on a couple of occasions since late May.)

 

US equities extend last week’s losses

On Monday, the benchmark S&P 500 lost 0.45% and the Nasdaq 100 finishing lower by 1.36%.

The tech sector underperformed with big losses in Meta, Nvidia and Alphabet while Tesla fell more than 6% after cautious commentary from investment bank, Goldman Sachs.

Interestingly, small caps were resilient with the Russell 2000 closing in the green amid gains in the regional banking sector.

Tech stocks have led markets strongly higher in the first two quarters of the year with moderating inflation and AI-led gains to the fore.

We’ve also seen narrow leadership from a handful of megacap, growth companies with the wider blue-chip S&P 500 up around 12.7% this year, while the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 index still boasts of a year-to-date advance of over 34%.

This has driven equities to more expensive levels with valuations above historic averages, which is starting to grab the headlines and offers a note of caution to some of these handsome gains.

READ MORE: (June 14) Can US share markets go up higher today?

Sintra on the market’s mind

This week sees the ECB annual forum on central banking which takes places at Sintra in Portugal.

The symposium is entitled “Macroeconomic stabilisation in a volatile inflation environment” with the key segment being the policy panel tomorrow featuring:

  • Fed Chair Powell
  • BoE Governor Bailey
  • BoJ Governor Ueda

Several ECB speakers are scheduled to appear today including ECB President Lagarde and Schnabel as well as members of the Bank of England’s MPC.

Central bankers as a whole remain relatively hawkish after changing gears slightly in recent weeks in their battle against sticky, core inflation.

But markets are fearing a recession even though they price in more rate hikes.

So any signs of a change in the hawkish policy drumbeat certainly might hit risk assets, including the US share market.

However, if risk-on sentiment can be restored should markets overcome recession fears, that may prompt the NQ100_m to revisit its recent high at the 15,300 mark.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
26 Jun

Navigating EUR/USD Stability, Speculation, and Technical Analysis

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD remains steady near 1.0910 as it enters the new week of June, shrugging off some of the tension it previously faced.

In the recent past, the market was consumed with speculation and conjecture about the next moves of the US Federal Reserve System regarding interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch monitor, there is a high likelihood of a credit cost increase at the July meeting.

Monetary policymakers at the Fed have been hinting at similar possibilities. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while addressing politicians last week, expressed that the idea of raising rates again seemed reasonable.

The primary objective for the Fed remains the same—to bring inflation back to 2%. Presently, inflation figures are considerably higher, necessitating an ongoing battle.

From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD has followed the projected upward wave to 1.1000 on the H4 timeframe. Subsequently, the market experienced a downward impulse, reaching 1.0844. A correction to 1.0930 could develop today, and after its completion, a new downward wave to 1.0740, possibly extending to 1.0660, may ensue. This scenario gains support from the MACD indicator, with its signal line currently at highs and descending sharply towards zero.

On the H1 timeframe, a consolidation range has formed around 1.0940. Upon breaking out upwards, the market exhibited an extended structure, reaching 1.1000. It then underwent a downward impulse to 1.0840. A correction to 1.0940 has already occurred today, testing from below. Following its completion, a fresh downward wave to 1.0840 could commence. This technical scenario finds confirmation from the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line is above 50 and could potentially rise to 80 today.

Overall, EUR/USD has remained resilient near the 1.0910 level, exhibiting stability despite previous uncertainties. The upcoming actions of the US Federal Reserve System regarding interest rates continue to be a focal point for market participants, with analysts closely monitoring the potential impact on the currency pair. From a technical standpoint, various indicators and patterns suggest the possibility of both corrective rallies and downward movements, indicating the importance of monitoring key levels and trend developments.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Jun

The recessionary sentiment is intensifying in the United States. Japanese policymakers are once again talking about intervention

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices fell on Friday as technology stocks caused the NASDAQ (US100) to decline and interrupted an eight-week upward move. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.65% (-2.14% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.77% (-2.09% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed negative by 1.01% on Friday (-2.64% for the week).

Speaking last week in the House and Senate, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that further rate hikes are likely in the coming months. After that, 10-year bond yields fell a full percentage point below 2-year rates, deepening the inversion of the yield curve that is usually seen as a harbinger of recession.

Fed Richmond President Tom Barkin said he is not sure inflation is on a steady downward trajectory toward the Fed’s 2% target. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said two more rate hikes this year is a “very reasonable” projection.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.99% (-2.72% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.55% on Friday (-2.58% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 Index (ES35) was down by 1.01% (-1.98% for the week), the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.54% (-2.34% for the week).

Friday’s portion of disappointing Eurozone business activity statistics may cause a change in sentiment inside the ECB. Eurozone manufacturing activity worsened its decline in June, falling to 43.6 from 44.8 in May, reaching its lowest level in 37 months, a sign that the manufacturing recession is getting worse. Unless demand conditions in the region stabilize and improve soon, the ECB will have a hard time justifying further rate hikes, as a more restrictive stance could trigger a deeper recession.

A look at the yield on UK securities reveals the current problems and points to a recession. Two- and five-year fixed mortgage rates have risen sharply since the Bank of England began raising rates more than a year ago, and repayment costs are skyrocketing. Rates are expected to be even higher in the coming months, consumer spending will fall sharply, and this will hit the UK economy.

Oil prices rose in early trading in Asia on Monday after a failed Russian mercenary mutiny last weekend raised concerns about political instability in Russia and the potential impact on oil supplies from one of the world’s biggest producers.

Asian markets traded lower last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 2.92% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.63%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 5.15% for the week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was negative by 1.34% for the week.

The Japanese currency, which is often seen as a safe haven asset, is now coming under renewed pressure from sellers, threatening a surge in the value of imports to hit consumers. Japan’s deputy finance minister for international affairs indicated Monday that the government has not ruled out responding to the yen’s excessive movement. The last time Japan conducted a currency intervention to buy the yen was last October.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,348.33 −33.56 (−0.77%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,727.43 −219.28 (−0.65%)

DAX (DE40) 15,829.94 −158.22 (−0.99%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,461.87 −40.16 (−0.54%)

USD Index 102.87 +0.48 (+0.48%)

Important events for today:
  • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 11:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
26 Jun

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, DOGE). Overview for 26.06.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC exchange rate is about 30,250 USD on Monday. Over the past 24 hours, the flagship cryptocurrency has been moderately declining. However, it has gained about 14.5% within a week.

The last week was victorious for BTC as the leading cryptocurrency saw the most significant weekly result since March of this year. The weekly high was recorded at the level of 31,431 USD.

Several factors have worked in favour of buyers. First of all, this is the launch of EDX Market platform supported by The Charles Schwab and Fidelity. In addition, the giant BlackRock is getting ready to launch a cryptocurrency spot ETF. Following the investment fund, others, including Fidelity and Wisdom Tree, want to do the same. This is a good and promising signal: if the whales consider funds potentially profitable, it means they see conditions for an increase in prices.

BTC has broken the 31,000 USD level upwards. This opens the way for the buyers to 33,000-34,000 USD. A significant support level is at the 29,650 USD level, and the one below it is at the 29,200 USD level.

The capitalisation of the cryptocurrency market reached 1.176 trillion USD. BTC’s share has risen to 49.9%, while the share of ETH decreased to 19.2%.

Japan eases taxes for cryptocurrency companies

The Tax Agency of Japan intends to ease taxation for cryptocurrency companies. In particular, such companies could be exempt from paying tax on unrealised gains. This should facilitate running an industry-specific business in Japan.

Robinhood clients invest in Dogecoin

Robinhood clients invested about 1 billion USD in the DOGE token over the past month. According to publicly available data, Robinhood clients currently hold about 27.4% of the market supply of meme coins.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
26 Jun

Trade of the Week: EURUSD to suffer another inflation scare?

By ForexTime

  • Bloomberg FX model: 74% chance EURUSD will trade within 1.0784 – 1.1010 this week.
  • Traders to react to Powell vs. Lagarde comments due June 27-28
  • EURUSD typically sees 38% larger 1-day move on European CPI release days

The world’s most-traded FX pair has managed to shrug off the threat to the Putin regime over the weekend.

While keeping a wary eye over potential developments in Russia, it’s back to the usual grind of watching the incoming inflation data, and interpreting what the CPI numbers could mean for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next moves on interest rates.

 

Here’s are two main factors to look out for this week:

 

1) Speeches by Fed and ECB chiefs

Firstly, note that traders and investors tend to boost the currency of the central bank that appears to have more rate hikes in store (hawkish).

That’s what markets will be thinking about, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are set to offer public comments between Tuesday, June 27th and Wednesday, June 28th.

 

What markets currently think the Fed will do next?

Markets are only pricing in just one more 25-basis point hike out of the US Federal Reserve for the rest of 2023.

Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been trying to convince markets since the FOMC meeting earlier this month that the Fed may have 2 more rate hikes this year.

Except that, markets just aren’t buying it.

 

What markets currently think the European Central Bank (ECB) will do?

Markets expect the ECB to trigger two more 25-bps hikes (50-bps in total) before the year is over.

Hence, no surprise that EURUSD has climbed by about 2% so far this month.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • Should markets finally take heed of Powell’s hawkish messaging, that could lead to a stronger US dollar that drags EURUSD lower.
  • Alternatively, should Powell’s hawkish intentions be once again pooh-poohed by markets, that may push EURUSD even higher.

 

 

2) European inflation data

Thursday, June 29th: Germany June CPI (consumer price index, which is used to measure headline inflation)

Markets are expecting inflation to tick back higher in the Europe’s largest economy:

  • Month-on-month CPI (June 2023 vs. May 2023) to be 0.2% higher; inflation back to positive growth after May’s 0.1% month-on-month contraction)
  • Year-on-year CPI (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to be 6.3% higher.
    If so, that would mean inflation is ticking back up at a faster pace compared to May 2023’s 6.1% year-on-year number.

 

Friday, June 30th: Eurozone June CPI

Here are the market’s forecasts:

  • Month-on-month CPI (June 2023 vs. May 2023) to be 0.3% higher; inflation back to growth after May’s 0.0% month-on-month reading.
  • Year-on-year CPI (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to be 5.6% higher; a slower annual pace compared to May’s 6.1% year-on-year advance
  • Core CPI (excluding more volatile items such as food and fuel) to be 5.5% higher year-on-year (June 2023 vs. June 2022).
    If so, that would mean inflation is ticking back up at a faster pace compared to May 2023’s core CPI year-on-year number of 5.3%.

Overall, signs of still stubborn inflation may ramp up market bets for more ECB rate hikes.

The prospects of more rate hikes in an economy tend to strengthen its currency.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • Higher-than-expected CPI prints out of Germany/Eurozone later this week may translate into a stronger Euro versus the US dollar.
  • Alternatively, lower-than-expected CPI prints out of Germany/Eurozone later this week may translate into a weaker EURUSD.

 

 

EURUSD tends to post larger-than-average moves on CPI data

So far in 2023, EURUSD has seen an average intraday move of 80 pips between any given day’s highest price and that same day’s lowest.

However, on the days that Germany or Europe releases their respective CPI data, EURUSD tends to see an average intraday move of 110 pips, which is about 38% (or 30 pips) more than the daily average so far this year.

In other words, expect greater EURUSD volatility when Germany and the Eurozone release their respective CPI prints later this week.

 

Note also that EURUSD has posted larger intraday moves in 3 out of the past four of Germany’s CPI releases, compared to EURUSD’s 1-day move on the day of the Eurozone’s CPI release.

After all, Germany is the largest economy in Europe. Hence, the former’s CPI print is seen as a forerunner to the bloc’s headline CPI print.

 

 

Key levels

Potential Support

  • 14-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • 1.08444: intraday low on June 23rd
  • 100-day SMA around 1.080 psychologically-important level

 

Potential Resistance

  • 1.09426: 50% Fibonacci level from EURUSD’s Jan 2021 – Sept 2022 drop, peak-to-trough
  • 1.09708: intraday high on June 16th
  • 1.10123: recent cycle high

 

Bloomberg’s FX model now points to a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.0784 – 1.1010 range in the next one week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
24 Jun

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (39,873 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (20,883 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,129 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,125 contracts), Swiss Franc (192 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,173 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-3,680 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,828 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-254 contracts) and Bitcoin (-346 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was this week’s sharp boost in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions jumped by over +39,000 contracts this week and halted a two-week streak of declines.

The Pound weekly positions rise was the largest one-week increase on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The gain has pushed the overall net position now to over +46,608 contracts and the highest standing since April 17th of 2018, a span of 270 weeks.

The Pound’s positioning was helped out by the anticipation of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate increase that was by 50 basis points on Thursday. This brought the bank rate to 5 percent and its highest sitting in the past 15 years.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar reacted strongly and touched it’s highest level (1.2874) since April of 2022 after the interest rate announcement. However, the Pound closed out Thursday and Friday lower with the weekly close at the 1.2714 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-20-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index27,3061714,86150-16,574491,71335
EUR732,97964144,64974-192,7232548,07456
GBP226,5055346,608100-59,003012,39582
JPY238,55671-107,6563118,27293-10,61632
CHF36,12822-4,851425,23654-38556
CAD184,10651-33,5432318,7586914,78556
AUD149,89844-49,6163950,98657-1,37049
NZD32,40113-2,659464,44157-1,78229
MXN224,8974699,718100-103,04003,32232
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL52,9914325,90269-23,41836-2,48424
Bitcoin15,6877839784-927053025

 

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), EuroFX (74 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (3 percent) and the comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (49.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.3 percent)
EuroFX (74.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (68.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.1 percent)
Bitcoin (83.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.9 percent)

 

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (33 percent) and the Mexican Peso (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (8 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (-13.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-15.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-0.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.83.115.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.463.89.5
– Net Position:14,861-16,5741,713
– Gross Longs:20,9728354,318
– Gross Shorts:6,11117,4092,605
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.749.435.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-6.32.7

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 144,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.354.412.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.680.76.1
– Net Position:144,649-192,72348,074
– Gross Longs:229,399398,64692,826
– Gross Shorts:84,750591,36944,752
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.125.455.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.414.0-10.8

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.832.516.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.358.610.8
– Net Position:46,608-59,00312,395
– Gross Longs:101,56773,69236,837
– Gross Shorts:54,959132,69524,442
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.082.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.1-30.410.6

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.573.411.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.623.916.2
– Net Position:-107,656118,272-10,616
– Gross Longs:32,244175,20127,983
– Gross Shorts:139,90056,92938,599
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.693.431.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.724.0-5.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.043.133.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.528.634.8
– Net Position:-4,8515,236-385
– Gross Longs:8,32215,58512,170
– Gross Shorts:13,17310,34912,555
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.853.656.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.8-0.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.362.420.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.552.212.8
– Net Position:-33,54318,75814,785
– Gross Longs:28,187114,92538,400
– Gross Shorts:61,73096,16723,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.368.955.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-15.832.2

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.552.914.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.618.915.2
– Net Position:-49,61650,986-1,370
– Gross Longs:45,74379,30021,444
– Gross Shorts:95,35928,31422,814
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.856.949.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-4.415.4

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.557.38.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.743.614.1
– Net Position:-2,6594,441-1,782
– Gross Longs:10,86718,5732,794
– Gross Shorts:13,52614,1324,576
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.457.028.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.20.4-24.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 99,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.842.13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.587.92.2
– Net Position:99,718-103,0403,322
– Gross Longs:121,00594,7338,262
– Gross Shorts:21,287197,7734,940
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.032.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-15.8-20.3

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.920.210.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.164.415.3
– Net Position:25,902-23,418-2,484
– Gross Longs:36,53510,6855,625
– Gross Shorts:10,63334,1038,109
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.735.924.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.116.1-35.0

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.11.68.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.57.54.6
– Net Position:397-927530
– Gross Longs:11,9322501,259
– Gross Shorts:11,5351,177729
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.2 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.922.525.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.58.6-4.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
24 Jun

Copper Speculators raise their bets into first bullish position in 9 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,794 contracts) with Gold (2,766 contracts), Palladium (501 contracts) and Steel (175 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-3,678 contracts) and Platinum (-2,500 contracts) having lower bets on the week.

Copper Speculators raise their bets into first bullish position in 9 weeks

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the gains for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by +14,794 contracts this week following a gain by +13,050 contracts last week. The speculator position has now risen by over +37,590 contracts in total over the past three weeks.

This renewed positive sentiment has brought the net position standing back into a small bullish level after spending the past eight weeks in bearish territory.

Despite the bullish return of speculators, Copper prices closed out the week lower following three straight weeks of gains. The futures price touched a six-week high on Thursday at 3.967 before turning lower and finishing the week at 3.8035.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-20-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold438,0377162,97549-186,5375223,56239
Silver152,6334020,05847-36,2105016,15256
Copper204,399461,88832-4,003682,11532
Palladium12,30487-6,63557,21496-5797
Platinum69,4367019,47261-25,052425,58043

 

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (68 percent) and Platinum (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (48.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.6 percent)
Silver (46.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (32.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.7 percent)
Platinum (60.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (66.3 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (67.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.3 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (23 percent) and Steel (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-20 percent), Silver (-18 percent) and Gold (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.6 percent)
Silver (-17.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (23.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.6 percent)
Platinum (-19.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.4 percent)
Steel (5.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (4.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 162,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.327.710.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.170.35.4
– Net Position:162,975-186,53723,562
– Gross Longs:229,308121,41947,402
– Gross Shorts:66,333307,95623,840
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.851.939.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.513.9-7.9

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.430.118.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.353.87.9
– Net Position:20,058-36,21016,152
– Gross Longs:52,54745,94128,208
– Gross Shorts:32,48982,15112,056
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.6 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.950.056.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.612.113.0

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.742.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.744.47.2
– Net Position:1,888-4,0032,115
– Gross Longs:64,74086,76116,759
– Gross Shorts:62,85290,76414,644
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.568.331.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.1-19.7-19.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.128.312.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.064.44.8
– Net Position:19,472-25,0525,580
– Gross Longs:34,05919,6828,936
– Gross Shorts:14,58744,7343,356
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.4 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.541.742.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.915.415.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.567.29.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.48.614.3
– Net Position:-6,6357,214-579
– Gross Longs:2,5258,2681,182
– Gross Shorts:9,1601,0541,761
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.696.46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.110.3-15.7

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.878.01.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.571.80.4
– Net Position:-1,8551,710145
– Gross Longs:4,08521,522264
– Gross Shorts:5,94019,812119
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.832.038.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-6.422.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Metals Opinions
24 Jun

Speculator Extremes: British Pound, Peso & Live Cattle lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 20th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 33.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 46,608 net contracts this week with a change of 39,873 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 18.1 this week. The speculator position registered 99,718 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 20,883 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 47.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 204,698 net contracts this week with a change of 78,952 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 99.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 2.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,510 net contracts this week with a change of -48 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.7 this week.

The speculator position was 105,936 net contracts this week with a change of -6,313 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -154,369 net contracts this week with a change of -61,298 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,027,276 net contracts this week with a change of 19,169 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 2.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -107,656 net contracts this week with a change of -3,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil


The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 3.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.7 this week. The speculator position was 166,477 net contracts this week with a change of 11,403 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium


Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week. The speculator position was -6,635 net contracts this week with a change of 501 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions
24 Jun

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (73,681 contracts) with Soybeans (25,583 contracts), Wheat (20,463 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,962 contracts), Sugar (9,741 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,704 contracts), Coffee (5,163 contracts) and Soybean Meal (4,314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,597 contracts) with Cotton (-4,552 contracts) and Live Cattle (-6,313 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the renewed bullish appetite of the Corn’s speculator’s positioning. The speculator positioning sharply jumped this week by over +73,681 contracts following a gain of +59,863 contracts last week. The Corn speculative bets have risen in four straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks.

The grains markets have been starting to see higher prices coming back over the past month due to a drought in the US Midwest that has been stated as the worst since 2012. Speculators have been reacting to the changes in the weather and have now pushed their overall net standing for Corn back into a bullish position last week after spending the previous six weeks in bearish territory.

Corn’s futures price had been on a rise for three out of the previous four weeks and touched a nine-week high this week above 672.0 but ended up closing the week lower at the 630.6 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-20-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,846,81640166,4773-189,9189723,44126
Gold438,0377162,97549-186,5375223,56239
Silver152,6334020,05847-36,2105016,15256
Copper204,399461,88832-4,003682,11532
Palladium12,30487-6,63557,21496-5797
Platinum69,4367019,47261-25,052425,58043
Natural Gas1,303,55869-109,3152879,7357129,58050
Brent144,34817-47,0561345,090911,96636
Heating Oil310,2974016,10057-28,4966112,39641
Soybeans662,4691988,53224-67,63473-20,89847
Corn1,290,34813118,77339-58,03067-60,74328
Coffee185,800733,49462-33,42643-6812
Sugar967,11363261,00183-310,7621549,76167
Wheat353,86539-66,3642063,862802,50282

 

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Cocoa

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (93 percent), Cocoa (89 percent) and Sugar (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (14 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.7 percent)
Sugar (83.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.7 percent)
Coffee (61.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.5 percent)
Soybeans (23.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (63.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.6 percent)
Live Cattle (93.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.0 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.2 percent)
Cocoa (88.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (19.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.1 percent)

 

Corn & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (25 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (13 percent), Soybeans (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.5 percent)
Soybeans (9.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (8.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.5 percent)
Cotton (4.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (5.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (13.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 118,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 73,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.548.39.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.352.814.1
– Net Position:118,773-58,030-60,743
– Gross Longs:342,125623,477121,205
– Gross Shorts:223,352681,507181,948
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.266.627.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.2-24.1-22.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 261,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.440.99.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.473.04.5
– Net Position:261,001-310,76249,761
– Gross Longs:342,320395,11693,065
– Gross Shorts:81,319705,87843,304
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.214.867.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.56.3-6.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.841.33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.859.33.8
– Net Position:33,494-33,426-68
– Gross Longs:51,67676,7677,058
– Gross Shorts:18,182110,1937,126
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.842.611.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.01.1-12.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.453.36.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.163.510.0
– Net Position:88,532-67,634-20,898
– Gross Longs:161,793353,06245,676
– Gross Shorts:73,261420,69666,574
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.973.446.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-10.110.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.059.25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.565.15.3
– Net Position:28,127-30,1382,011
– Gross Longs:76,705301,79229,161
– Gross Shorts:48,578331,93027,150
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.467.021.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.1-20.310.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.738.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.562.76.3
– Net Position:107,750-122,18914,439
– Gross Longs:130,518195,98646,491
– Gross Shorts:22,768318,17532,052
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.938.820.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-9.45.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 105,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.127.58.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.755.312.1
– Net Position:105,936-94,062-11,874
– Gross Longs:155,74492,89229,165
– Gross Shorts:49,808186,95441,039
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.27.723.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-4.9-22.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.440.39.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.129.510.2
– Net Position:-18,72720,759-2,032
– Gross Longs:56,56277,52217,534
– Gross Shorts:75,28956,76319,566
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.388.974.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-2.7-19.6

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.851.07.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.956.26.5
– Net Position:6,658-8,8682,210
– Gross Longs:52,44586,86913,339
– Gross Shorts:45,78795,73711,129
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.784.329.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-5.112.4

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.727.94.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.949.03.0
– Net Position:67,342-71,9684,626
– Gross Longs:152,23995,15114,724
– Gross Shorts:84,897167,11910,098
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.810.842.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-5.4-1.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -66,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.738.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.520.59.3
– Net Position:-66,36463,8622,502
– Gross Longs:98,146136,41635,384
– Gross Shorts:164,51072,55432,882
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.680.081.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.1-13.4-5.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
24 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (84,512 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (78,952 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (76,570 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (19,169 contracts) and  the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1,640 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-58,144 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,411 contracts), the Eurodollar (-8,627 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-2,554 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-13-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar511,7110-11,6727423,43222-11,76097
FedFunds1,693,14163-101,64232115,60769-13,96564
2-Year3,503,880100-1,027,2762939,5879887,68997
Long T-Bond1,233,35963-102,3015166,4933435,80874
10-Year4,641,76786-749,99710681,0439268,95489
5-Year4,948,67092-958,8267931,1719227,65589

 

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) and the Eurodollar (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (51.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (52.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (20.0 percent)
Eurodollar (73.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (74.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (94.2 percent)

 

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (48 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Eurodollar (1 percent) and the  are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) and the Fed Funds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-21.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-24.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-36.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.8 percent)
Eurodollar (1.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (47.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.167.29.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.462.611.3
– Net Position:-11,67223,432-11,760
– Gross Longs:118,404343,97845,860
– Gross Shorts:130,076320,54657,620
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.722.396.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.1-1.00.1

 

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 78,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.460.11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.462.01.3
– Net Position:204,698-189,803-14,895
– Gross Longs:1,811,3136,267,481122,143
– Gross Shorts:1,606,6156,457,284137,038
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.079.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:47.9-47.7-5.6

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -101,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 84,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.771.12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.764.33.5
– Net Position:-101,642115,607-13,965
– Gross Longs:147,2921,204,55045,368
– Gross Shorts:248,9341,088,94359,333
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.669.363.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.81.629.0

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,027,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,046,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.680.97.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.954.14.5
– Net Position:-1,027,276939,58787,689
– Gross Longs:406,8482,836,230244,127
– Gross Shorts:1,434,1241,896,643156,438
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.798.096.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.525.79.0

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -958,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 76,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,035,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.083.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.364.66.8
– Net Position:-958,826931,17127,655
– Gross Longs:394,4574,129,490363,566
– Gross Shorts:1,353,2833,198,319335,911
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.891.888.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.35.3-2.9

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -749,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -58,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.279.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.365.27.5
– Net Position:-749,997681,04368,954
– Gross Longs:425,9653,708,456415,816
– Gross Shorts:1,175,9623,027,413346,862
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.791.888.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.84.2-4.6

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -134,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.576.811.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.565.015.1
– Net Position:-134,686200,704-66,018
– Gross Longs:179,2261,306,770191,631
– Gross Shorts:313,9121,106,066257,649
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.077.174.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-17.93.7

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -102,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.377.314.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.671.911.6
– Net Position:-102,30166,49335,808
– Gross Longs:89,659952,842178,917
– Gross Shorts:191,960886,349143,109
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.334.374.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.522.9-25.5

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -403,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -396,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.682.311.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.059.17.5
– Net Position:-403,404342,02461,380
– Gross Longs:82,6951,212,061172,397
– Gross Shorts:486,099870,037111,017
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.371.6100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.20.61.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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