InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.01%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.37%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.95% on Thursday.

The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the Central Bank would raise interest rates at a “cautious pace” as policymakers near the end of their monetary tightening cycle. According to Powell, the “point” of keeping rates unchanged at last week’s Fed meeting was precisely to slow the pace at which the Fed was raising borrowing costs. Investors now expect rate hikes to resume in July, with the Fed possibly assessing the need for further hikes every second meeting. But Powell said he shares his colleagues’ broad economic outlook for moderate economic growth, a slight increase in unemployment, and a slow decline in inflation for the rest of the year.

According to Powell, it was this outlook that made most policymakers feel that one or two more rate hikes would be enough to end the Fed’s battle with inflation. Federal Reserve Chief Michelle Bowman said the US central bank needs to keep raising interest rates to lower inflation, adding her voice to those policymakers who want to resume raising rates after a break in last week’s tightening campaign.

Tesla (TSLA) shares plummeted by 5.5% yesterday, the biggest daily drop in two months. Analysts at Barclays downgraded the company’s stock, citing the fact that the value of the paper has severely departed from its fundamentals and averages (TSLA stock has risen 80% since the beginning of May).

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.22%, French CAC 40 (FR40) was 0.79% lower, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.76%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.76%.

Norway’s Central Bank raised its key rate by 50 basis points (bps) to a 15-year high of 3.75% on Thursday in a bid to curb inflation and said it is aiming for another rate hike in August, predicting the rate will rise to 4.25% in the fall. Core inflation in Norway rose to 6.7% in May, a record high and above the Central Bank’s forecast of 6.0%.

The Bank of England, citing the resilience of inflation, surprised markets by raising the rate immediately by 50 bps to 5%. Seven representatives out of 9 voted for such a decision. The Bank of England promises to monitor the situation closely and is ready for further monetary policy tightening in case of more sustainable price growth.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised its discount rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%, as expected, while sending a very hawkish signal. Since the central bank expects inflation to remain stable for some time, another 25bp increase is expected in September. The SNB has revised its inflation forecasts. It is expected to average 2.2% in 2023, 2.2% in 2024, and 2.1% in 2025. The SNB also does not expect any slowdown in inflationary pressures and believes that the current situation is likely to continue. This signals growing concern about the long-term prospects for inflation.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.92% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day down by 1.63%. Most Asian stock markets continued to fall on Friday as the Bank of England’s rate hike heightened fears of monetary tightening, while lower consumer inflation in Japan also worsened sentiment.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,381.89 +16.20 (+0.37%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,946.71 −4.81 (−0.014%)

DAX (DE40) 15,988.16 −34.97 (−0.22%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,502.03 −57.15 (−0.76%)

USD Index 102.40 +0.34 (+0.33%)

• – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
• – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
• – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
• – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Bullard Speaks at 12:15 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Bostic Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By George Prior 

Nigel Farage’s “lies about Brexit” are to blame for the UK’s inflation and it’s “disingenuous” to blame the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, says the CEO of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organization.

The damning indictment from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as the former leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and leader of the Brexit Party-turned-broadcaster hits out at the governor over interest rate hikes, saying “the economic incompetence with which this country is now being led beggars belief.”

The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates to 5% the highest in almost 15 years.

The deVere CEO says: “Nigel Farage is doing what Nigel Farage does: creating sensationalist headlines, that are lacking in reality.

“The fact is that his Brexit lies in a large part have caused the sticky inflation that has prompted the Bank of England to raise interest rates further.”

He continues: “All Western countries have seen price hikes in the last two years, but the UK’s inflation is the worst in Western Europe. Why? Brexit – of which Farage was one of the primary architects.

“As someone who runs a global organisation, I can see that Brexit has made almost every economic activity with the EU more onerous and expensive.”

Wage inflation, says Nigel Green, is now a “huge issue” as it has “hit Britain’s labour market.”

He notes: “Brexit’s ending of free movement of people continues to cripple critical parts of the UK economy such as transport, hospitality and retail, and this is fuelling wage inflation, which is a direct reason why the Bank of England is now raising rates.”

Nigel Green concludes: “While the Bank of England might have made mistakes on inflation, it is disingenuous for Nigel Farage to now attack the governor of the central bank as Brexit is a hugely important contributing factor as to why the UK is still battling hot inflation.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices closed lower on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement to Congress reinforced the central bank’s goal of curbing inflation. Powell said the Fed is at the end of its tightening cycle but also hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes at the July meeting. At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.52%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed negative by 1.21% on Wednesday. All three major US stock indices declined for the third day straight.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets are estimating a 72% chance of another 25 basis point interest rate hike at the conclusion of the July meeting.

The Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates any further, or it risks undermining the strength of the US economy, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Rafael Bostic said Wednesday. The policymaker believes the rate should be held at current levels for the rest of the year from now on. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austen Goolsbee said Wednesday that the US Central Bank needs more clarity on inflation and the labor market trajectory before deciding its next move. This suggests that the Fed no longer has a consensus about the next meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.55%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.46%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.03%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.13%.

In the UK, the consumer price level remained at 8.7% (8.4% was expected) in annual terms. At the same time, core inflation rose from 6.8% to 7.1% y/y. The Bank of England will hold a monetary policy meeting today where a 0.25% rate hike is expected, but because of the inflation shock, there may be surprises in the form of a 0.5% hike. Economists believe the Bank of England will raise the rate by 0.25% and point to another hike in August.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will also hold a monetary policy and interest rate meeting today. There is almost a 100% chance that the SNB will raise the rate by 0.25%, from 1.5% to 1.75%. Although inflation in Switzerland fell to 2.2% in May, the lowest among advanced economies, the SNB does not believe interest rates are in restrictive territory.

The US corn and soybean prices jumped to multi-month highs, reinforcing expectations that a bad harvest worldwide could reduce demand for biofuels and increase demand for oil.

Asian markets traded yesterday without a single dynamic. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.56% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 1.00%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.98% on Wednesday, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed negative by 0.58%. Most Asian stocks continued to decline on Thursday, following an overnight decline on Wall Street, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of further interest rate hikes. But regional trading volumes were limited as China and Hong Kong went on a bank holiday for the rest of the week.

Bank of Japan governor Asahi Noguchi said Thursday that the central bank needs to maintain its ultra-soft policy in the near term to ensure sustainable wage growth.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,365.69 −23.02 (−0.52%)

Dow Jones (US30)33,951.52 −102.35 (−0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 16,023.13 −88.19 (−0.55%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,559.18 −10.13 (−0.13%)

USD Index 102.07 -0.47 (-0.46%)

• – Switzerland SNB Interest Rate Decision at 10:30 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland SNB Monetary Policy Assessment at 10:30 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland SNB Press Conference at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Norway NB Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes at 14:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Bowman Speaks at 16:55 (GMT+3);
• – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Chair Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Mester Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Kurt Eichenwald, The Conversation 

The types of crimes that use drop accounts are multiplying rapidly, but there are ways to decrease your chances of becoming a victim.

• Do not mail checks from anywhere but your local post office. Not even your own mailbox is safe. The best option? Pay bills and send money online.

Protect your identity online by following these steps

• Guard your Social Security number. Never use it on medical forms – if asked, write “available upon request” – for a job interview, when applying for a grocery store reward card or when booking travel. If you believe the number has been compromised, contact the Social Security Administration to get a new one.
• Use only one credit card for online shopping, and never use a debit card.
• Strengthen your online and mobile phone passwords.
• If you don’t expect to apply for a credit card or loan soon, freeze your credit with all three credit rating agencies.
• Check your credit reports.
• Do not respond to preapproved credit card or loan offers delivered by mail, and, to reduce offers, consider opting out of receiving these mailings.
• Shred your financial information; don’t simply throw it out.
• Never give out personal information to anyone contacting you through unsolicited phone calls or emails.

To prevent fraud involving a tax return refund or any other tax issue

• Complete and send in your tax return as early as possible, which makes it more difficult for someone to steal your refund.
• Establish an identity protection PIN with the IRS, which only you and the agency will know.
• If the IRS rejects your attempt to file your tax return, or if you receive any unusual mail from the agency such as a tax transcript you didn’t request, or it notifies you of suspicious activity, contact the agency at the number listed here to report possible identity theft.
• Pay any taxes owed online, not by check.

To prevent losses through business email compromise scams

• Learn and teach employees basic email safety techniques.
• Confirm urgent emails from supervisors or vendors demanding immediate wire transfers. In fact, urgent requests are the most suspicious.
• Assure employees that double-checking whether these purportedly urgent emails came from the listed sender will not result in criticism or punishment.
• Never purchase a gift card requested by a supervisor through email or text.
• Human resources officials should never change bank accounts for direct deposit if employees ask by email or text. Always call to double-check that the request is real.

This article accompanies Heists Worth Billions, an investigation from The Conversation that found criminal gangs using sham bank accounts and secret online marketplaces to steal from almost anyone – and uncovered just how little being done to combat the fraud.

• Behind the scenes of the investigation
• Announcing The Conversation’s new investigative unit

Kurt Eichenwald, Senior Investigative Editor, The Conversation

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.