Week Ahead: 5 stock indices to watch

By ForexTime 

  • RUS2000 braced for Fed
  • AU200 waits on RBA
  • JP225 breakout on horizon?
  • CN50 respects bullish channel
  • UK100 set for big move?

A wave of key central bank decisions may present fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead!

Watch out for the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Bank of England (BoE) among other heavyweights:

Monday, 18th March  

  • CN50: China industrial production, retail sales, fixed assets
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI
  • JPY: Japan machinery orders

Tuesday, 19th March

  • AU200: RBA rate decision
  • JP225: BOJ rate decision
  • CAD: Canada CPI
  • EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations

Wednesday, 20th March

  • CN50: China loan prime rates
  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • GBP: UK CPI
  • RUS2000: Fed rate decision

Thursday, 21st March

  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • JPY: Japan trade, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI
  • UK100: BoE rate decision
  • CHF: SNB rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone S&P Global PMI’s, Germany manufacturing PMI
  • USD: US conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims

Friday, 22nd March  

  • JPY: Japan CPI
  • NZD: New Zealand trade
  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • EUR: Germany IFO business climate
  • USD: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech

Our focus falls on 5 indices which could be rocked by 5 central bank announcements:

    1) RUS2000 braced for Fed

The RUS2000 which tracks the underlying Russell 2000 Index could see heightened levels of volatility due to the Fed rate decision.

This index is composed of smaller stocks that are more volatile compared to those in large-cap indexes.

In fact, since the start of H2 2023 the RUS2000 has shown the most sensitivity on Fed rate decision day when compared to the S&P500, Nasdaq 100, S&P400, and even Dow Jones!

Markets widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in March, so much focus will be on the updated dot plot and Powell’s press conference for clues on rate cut timings.

Looking at technical prices are under pressure on the H4 charts with support found at 2015 and resistance around 2090.

    2) AU200 waits on RBA

Despite Friday’s rebound, the AU200 which tracks the underlying ASX 200 Index is en route to ending this week on a negative note.

Nevertheless, the index could be supported by the upcoming RBA meeting in the week ahead.

The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.35% so it’s all about the policy statement for insight into the RBA’s next move. Ultimately, any hint around rate cuts down the road may keep the index buoyed.

Traders are currently pricing in a 64% probability of a 25 basis point RBA cut by June 2024.

Looking at the charts, a technical rebound could be brewing with a breakout above 7765 bringing bulls back into the game, opening a path back towards the all-time high.

    3) JP225 breakout on horizon?

Things could get wild for the JP225 as expectations mount around the BoJ ending its negative rates.

Note: The JP225 tracks the Nikkie 225 index and tends to weaken when the Yen strengthens, vice versa.

Markets are currently pricing in almost a 60% probability that the BoJ will scrap its negative rates next week, with the probability of a hike in April jumping to 70%.

Should the central bank make a move next week or confirm that rates will be hiked in April, this may trigger a potential breakout on the JP225. Focusing on the charts, support can be found at 38300 and resistance at 39250.

 

    4) CN50 respects bullish channel

It is a big week for the CN50 due to key economic indicators from China and the loan prime rate decision from Chinese banks which is announced by the PBoC. The CN50 tracks the benchmark FTSE China A50 Index and has gained over 14% since the low back in January 2024.

Note: China’s central bank left its key policy rates unchanged today.

The index is likely to be influenced not only by fundamental forces but technical factors. Prices are bullish with further upside on the cards beyond 12240.

 

    5) UK100 set for big move?

After swinging within a range on the weekly charts, the UK100 which tracks the underlying FTSE100 index could be preparing for a breakout.

This may be triggered by the incoming UK inflation data and BoE rate decision in the week ahead.

Markets widely expect the BoE to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth straight meeting, so all attention will be on the policy statement and how many MPC members voted to cut rates. Given how this event is likely to impact the pound, it may be reflected in the UK100.

Note: When the pound appreciates, it results in lower revenues for FTSE100 companies that acquire sales from overseas, pulling the UK100 lower as a result. The same is true vice versa.

Regarding the charts, a solid weekly close above 7740 could open a path back towards 7930. Should this level prove to be reliable resistance, prices may slip back towards 7575.


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Week 11: Mexican Peso Speculator bets touching most bullish levels in 4 years

COT | Data | Leaders | What is COT? | Excel | COT Dashboard

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through March 12th.


Mexican Peso Speculator bets touching most bullish levels in 4 years

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (16,521 contracts) with the British Pound (12,066 contracts), the EuroFX (8,096 contracts), the US Dollar Index (3,087 contracts), the Brazilian Real (407 contracts) and Bitcoin (358 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,037 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,097 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,763 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,294 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-319 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

See full article…


Weekly Market Price Changes

Gasoline, Palladium & Cocoa Futures lead weekly price gains

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.


COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Peso, Soybeans & Australian Dollar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…


COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (313,749 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (109,712 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,465 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (51,988 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (29,753 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,866 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (3,503 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

See full article…


COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (12,663 contracts) with Platinum (11,783 contracts), Copper (10,754 contracts), Gold (10,309 contracts) and Palladium (2,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals market with declines in speculator bets was Steel with a reduction by -560 contracts on the week.

See full article…


COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,857 contracts) with Soybeans (16,828 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,286 contracts), Live Cattle (3,932 contracts), Sugar (3,186 contracts), Coffee (2,959 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,622 contracts) and Cocoa (2,469 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-8,981 contracts), Cotton (-3,599 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

See full article…


COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (3,729 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,604 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,085 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (760 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-35,387 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,688 contracts) and the VIX (-3,151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

See full article…


Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Mexican Peso Speculator bets touching most bullish levels in 4 years

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning and the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (16,521 contracts) with the British Pound (12,066 contracts), the EuroFX (8,096 contracts), the US Dollar Index (3,087 contracts),  the Brazilian Real (407 contracts) and Bitcoin (358 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-11,037 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,097 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-4,763 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,294 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-319 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators boosting Mexican Peso positions to best levels in 4 years

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued strength in the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators slightly trimmed (-2,294 contracts) their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week but have been pushing their bets to multi-year highs over the past month.

Last week, on March 5th, the large speculator position rose by over +12,772 contracts and ascended to the most bullish level (+106,586 contracts) of the past 208 weeks, dating back all the way to March 10th of 2020. Since the beginning of November, speculators have increased their bullish bets in thirteen out of nineteen weeks and have added a total of +72,995 contracts to the overall net bullish standing, going from +31,297 contracts on October 31st to a total of +104,292 contracts this week.

Helping the Mexican peso positioning has been the record high interest rates in Mexico at 11.25 percent which gives the currency an interest rate differential advantage over the other major currencies. The Mexican economy has been on a steady growth path as well with the year-over-year GDP expanding by 2.5 percent in the 4th quarter following 3.5 percent growth in the third quarter of 2023 and 3.4 percent growth in the second quarter.

The Mexican peso exchange rate has been strongly trending higher in the currency markets versus the US Dollar and the other major currencies. The peso exchange level versus the US Dollar, on Thursday, reached its highest level since July of 2023 at just over the 0.0600 exchange rate. The peso has also been higher versus all of the other major currencies we track on a year-over-year basis.

The Bank of Mexico does meet on March 21st with a market expectation of a possible interest rate reduction — so we will see if the peso can continue to shine in 2024 following a great 2023 when the peso had an approximate gain versus the USD by a little over 14 percent.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (99 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (67 percent), EuroFX (52 percent) and Bitcoin (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above their midpoint (50 percent) of the last three years.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (6 percent), the Swiss Franc (8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Japanese Yen (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (17.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (11.4 percent)
EuroFX (52.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (48.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (92.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (12.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (33.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (42.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (11.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (67.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (80.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (98.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (100.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (45.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.2 percent)
Bitcoin (51.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (46.1 percent)


British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (12 percent), the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), Canadian Dollar (-24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (12.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.1 percent)
EuroFX (-6.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-19.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-42.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-40.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-36.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-9.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-29.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-28.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (14.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.1 percent)
Bitcoin (12.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (4.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.611.910.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.136.110.1
– Net Position:6,186-6,381195
– Gross Longs:17,5473,1272,853
– Gross Shorts:11,3619,5082,658
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.988.013.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-12.0-2.0

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,096 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.056.011.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.770.67.5
– Net Position:74,407-104,60430,197
– Gross Longs:193,998402,08184,306
– Gross Shorts:119,591506,68554,109
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.050.027.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.14.34.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 70,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.437.610.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.066.07.8
– Net Position:70,451-78,9208,469
– Gross Longs:123,285104,33830,123
– Gross Shorts:52,834183,25821,654
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.01.574.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.1-23.310.3

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -102,322 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.963.714.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.333.713.2
– Net Position:-102,32297,8774,445
– Gross Longs:54,923207,47847,586
– Gross Shorts:157,245109,60143,141
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.069.596.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.415.312.9

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.669.011.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.334.224.8
– Net Position:-17,87028,703-10,833
– Gross Longs:11,23656,8859,575
– Gross Shorts:29,10628,18220,408
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.188.928.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.851.5-34.2

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -30,874 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,037 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.659.015.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.643.315.3
– Net Position:-30,87430,296578
– Gross Longs:35,964113,94230,149
– Gross Shorts:66,83883,64629,571
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.270.424.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.921.5-13.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -84,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.166.09.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.623.512.1
– Net Position:-90,84097,678-6,838
– Gross Longs:41,591151,73120,858
– Gross Shorts:132,43154,05327,696
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.690.637.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.829.7-15.9

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.150.18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.458.35.4
– Net Position:2,465-4,3371,872
– Gross Longs:16,39126,4084,700
– Gross Shorts:13,92630,7452,828
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.430.078.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.9-9.97.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 104,292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.639.72.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.073.30.8
– Net Position:104,292-110,8106,518
– Gross Longs:180,140131,1449,172
– Gross Shorts:75,848241,9542,654
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 13.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.71.152.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.0-14.17.6

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.339.67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.762.41.9
– Net Position:8,687-11,2532,566
– Gross Longs:26,31419,5323,502
– Gross Shorts:17,62730,785936
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.6 to 13.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.852.058.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.511.64.1

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:82.24.95.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.44.72.8
– Net Position:-99459935
– Gross Longs:24,9771,4861,800
– Gross Shorts:25,9711,427865
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.466.234.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.1-24.43.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (12,663 contracts) with Platinum (11,783 contracts), Copper (10,754 contracts), Gold (10,309 contracts) and Palladium (2,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only metals market with declines in speculator bets was Steel with a reduction by -560 contracts on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Silver (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (67.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (62.6 percent)
Silver (81.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (62.6 percent)
Copper (46.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (33.9 percent)
Platinum (35.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (6.0 percent)
Palladium (17.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.5 percent)
Steel (87.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.9 percent)


Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (30 percent), Gold (24 percent) and Copper (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-0.2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (24.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.8 percent)
Silver (29.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (16.1 percent)
Copper (15.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (27.5 percent)
Platinum (-10.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-32.2 percent)
Palladium (0.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-5.9 percent)
Steel (-0.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 201,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.925.19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.867.46.1
– Net Position:201,602-218,27316,671
– Gross Longs:283,062129,43247,992
– Gross Shorts:81,460347,70531,321
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.336.227.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.2-19.5-19.4

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,663 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.428.419.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.166.59.5
– Net Position:40,978-55,13014,152
– Gross Longs:67,09440,99727,826
– Gross Shorts:26,11696,12713,674
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.924.245.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.8-21.8-12.3

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.831.67.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.435.06.8
– Net Position:5,427-7,4452,018
– Gross Longs:87,43969,37817,050
– Gross Shorts:82,01276,82315,032
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.057.431.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-15.04.4

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,364 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.923.610.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.338.74.2
– Net Position:7,419-13,0415,622
– Gross Longs:44,71620,2869,273
– Gross Shorts:37,29733,3273,651
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.963.343.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.59.11.3

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.362.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.28.98.0
– Net Position:-10,58110,743-162
– Gross Longs:4,64512,5171,427
– Gross Shorts:15,2261,7741,589
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.786.432.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.72.6-33.7

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.284.71.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.875.40.9
– Net Position:-2,2372,16572
– Gross Longs:2,15319,748290
– Gross Shorts:4,39017,583218
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.812.940.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.20.7-14.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (313,749 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (109,712 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (61,465 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (51,988 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (29,753 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,866 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (3,503 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The only bond market with a decline in speculator bets was the Fed Funds with a decrease of -10,180 contracts for the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (82 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only market in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (26 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (27 percent) and the Fed Funds (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (34.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (30.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (13.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (26.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (26.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (63.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (58.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (56.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (82.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (66.1 percent)


US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (29 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The SOFR 3-Months (-14 percent), the Fed Funds (-9 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-8.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-23.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-3.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-8.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (28.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (24.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (5.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-14.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-33.9 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 427,279 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 313,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.654.90.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.758.80.3
– Net Position:427,279-420,998-6,281
– Gross Longs:1,915,0305,967,03228,910
– Gross Shorts:1,487,7516,388,03035,191
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.317.884.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.414.5-1.3

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -195,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.275.82.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.165.02.0
– Net Position:-195,750194,2811,469
– Gross Longs:130,0331,361,05737,516
– Gross Shorts:325,7831,166,77636,047
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.771.093.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.55.329.3

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -938,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 61,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -999,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.780.06.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.557.53.6
– Net Position:-938,056818,498119,558
– Gross Longs:426,0892,908,549251,836
– Gross Shorts:1,364,1452,090,051132,278
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.462.689.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-25.3-7.6

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,262,134 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,753 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,291,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.185.26.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.665.65.0
– Net Position:-1,262,1341,149,142112,992
– Gross Longs:355,6744,992,128404,802
– Gross Shorts:1,617,8083,842,986291,810
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.285.986.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.48.2-8.1

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -603,546 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 109,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -713,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.878.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.065.48.2
– Net Position:-603,546561,17942,367
– Gross Longs:457,8393,342,267390,056
– Gross Shorts:1,061,3852,781,088347,689
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.766.782.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.9-31.8-1.3

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -133,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 51,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.373.910.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.863.813.6
– Net Position:-133,670206,104-72,434
– Gross Longs:291,0661,505,286204,645
– Gross Shorts:424,7361,299,182277,079
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.272.571.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-14.817.0

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -54,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.469.713.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.169.89.4
– Net Position:-54,533-1,31755,850
– Gross Longs:231,1151,043,932196,307
– Gross Shorts:285,6481,045,249140,457
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.513.289.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.9-32.0-3.7

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -316,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.680.110.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.561.010.0
– Net Position:-316,870303,11113,759
– Gross Longs:136,0591,271,662172,255
– Gross Shorts:452,929968,551158,496
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.144.850.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-7.20.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,857 contracts) with Soybeans (16,828 contracts), Soybean Oil (16,286 contracts), Live Cattle (3,932 contracts), Sugar (3,186 contracts), Coffee (2,959 contracts), Soybean Meal (2,622 contracts) and Cocoa (2,469 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-8,981 contracts), Cotton (-3,599 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,812 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (85 percent) and Cotton (82 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (57 percent), Live Cattle (57 percent) and Lean Hogs (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (4 percent), Soybeans (4 percent), Soybean Oil (10 percent) and Corn (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (9.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.3 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.2 percent)
Coffee (85.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (82.3 percent)
Soybeans (3.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (10.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.0 percent)
Live Cattle (57.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (53.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (56.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (57.5 percent)
Cotton (82.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (84.8 percent)
Cocoa (56.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (54.1 percent)
Wheat (30.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.4 percent)


Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (42 percent), Live Cattle (38 percent) and Lean Hogs (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Cocoa (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-12 percent), Soybean Meal (-9 percent) and Soybeans (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (4.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-1.4 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (0.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-20.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (3.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-15.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-9.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-16.0 percent)
Live Cattle (38.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (47.4 percent)
Cotton (41.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (47.4 percent)
Cocoa (-26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-33.1 percent)
Wheat (-12.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.4 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -189,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 41,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.443.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.730.010.6
– Net Position:-189,030199,050-10,020
– Gross Longs:297,244658,122151,688
– Gross Shorts:486,274459,072161,708
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.589.498.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.4-5.49.5

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 84,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,186 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.752.48.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.363.37.9
– Net Position:84,963-89,4684,505
– Gross Longs:177,558429,84269,383
– Gross Shorts:92,595519,31064,878
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.382.08.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.12.0-26.4

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,959 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.937.43.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.864.33.1
– Net Position:56,431-58,2621,831
– Gross Longs:77,57680,6668,435
– Gross Shorts:21,145138,9286,604
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.6 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.318.038.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.3-0.0-3.6

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -180,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -197,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.460.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.634.88.4
– Net Position:-180,413191,331-10,918
– Gross Longs:99,347450,05351,545
– Gross Shorts:279,760258,72262,463
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.896.578.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.97.810.6

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.646.45.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.540.84.8
– Net Position:-32,52230,4982,024
– Gross Longs:112,652254,15128,336
– Gross Shorts:145,174223,65326,312
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.489.521.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.5-2.3-5.2

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -56,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,509 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.550.29.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.841.46.3
– Net Position:-56,88740,57516,312
– Gross Longs:85,247231,55545,244
– Gross Shorts:142,134190,98028,932
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.193.829.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.49.01.2

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 72,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.332.910.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.154.112.6
– Net Position:72,845-66,632-6,213
– Gross Longs:123,232103,11233,174
– Gross Shorts:50,387169,74439,387
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.541.356.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.4-39.9-15.7

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.936.18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.446.810.5
– Net Position:32,016-27,582-4,434
– Gross Longs:89,56492,59722,626
– Gross Shorts:57,548120,17927,060
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.045.463.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.4-37.32.5

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 97,513 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.232.66.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.771.43.3
– Net Position:97,513-106,8809,367
– Gross Longs:129,74689,51118,421
– Gross Shorts:32,233196,3919,054
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.117.972.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.6-40.930.7

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 45,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.728.17.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.052.34.5
– Net Position:45,772-51,0175,245
– Gross Longs:75,30159,26914,812
– Gross Shorts:29,529110,2869,567
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.740.856.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.425.18.0

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -53,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.436.38.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.022.38.6
– Net Position:-53,76955,780-2,011
– Gross Longs:120,577143,98431,984
– Gross Shorts:174,34688,20433,995
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.268.257.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.08.923.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Russell & Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly higher overall this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (3,729 contracts) with the Nikkei 225 (1,604 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (1,085 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (760 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-35,387 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-6,688 contracts) and the VIX (-3,151 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Markets Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (86 percent) and the Russell-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (62.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (65.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (34.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (84.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (40.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (68.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (48.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (36.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (51.7 percent)


Nikkei 225 & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) coming in as the next lowest market in trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (5.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (3.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-50.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (9.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (8.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (15.2 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.645.17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.731.68.2
– Net Position:-49,10650,627-1,521
– Gross Longs:70,068169,37929,419
– Gross Shorts:119,174118,75230,940
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.034.888.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.9-7.05.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -204,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.571.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.466.17.2
– Net Position:-239,827141,73198,096
– Gross Longs:280,7181,911,694291,700
– Gross Shorts:520,5451,769,963193,604
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.059.576.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.1-0.15.7

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.950.614.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.066.512.4
– Net Position:15,671-17,8182,147
– Gross Longs:30,25156,88516,125
– Gross Shorts:14,58074,70313,978
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.812.454.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.212.41.0

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.456.813.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.959.411.3
– Net Position:1,395-8,6447,249
– Gross Longs:87,501188,65644,899
– Gross Shorts:86,106197,30037,650
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.343.094.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-58.743.0-3.7

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -19,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.780.35.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.177.64.6
– Net Position:-19,09414,9914,103
– Gross Longs:66,221453,34029,908
– Gross Shorts:85,315438,34925,805
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.530.142.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.110.6-26.6

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.763.624.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.060.913.1
– Net Position:-2,5925012,091
– Gross Longs:2,10011,4694,451
– Gross Shorts:4,69210,9682,360
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.238.971.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-8.31.3

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.988.82.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.186.41.1
– Net Position:-20,94312,0628,881
– Gross Longs:38,994439,22014,460
– Gross Shorts:59,937427,1585,579
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.0 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.749.461.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.9-12.417.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Peso, Soybeans & Australian Dollar lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 12th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the COT data tables or COT leaders tables)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 24.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 70,451 net contracts this week with an increase of 12,066 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.0 this week. The speculator position registered 104,292 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -2,294 contracts in speculator bets.


Brent Oil


The Brent Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Brent Oil speculator level resides at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 22.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -11,141 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -1,489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Steel


The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,237 net contracts this week with a dip of -560 contracts in the speculator bets.


DowJones Mini


The DowJones Mini speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The DowJones Mini speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score has been falling recently and was -14.2 this week.

The speculator position was 15,671 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,085 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 3.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -180,413 net contracts this week with a gain of 16,828 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybean Meal


The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score has been falling and was -9.4 this week. The speculator position was -56,887 net contracts this week with an improvement by 2,622 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Australian Dollar


The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -90,840 net contracts this week with a drop of -6,097 contracts in the speculator bets.


Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 8.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong shortfall by -40.8 this week. The speculator position was -17,870 net contracts this week with a decline of -319 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 9.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a rise by 4.4 this week. The speculator position was -189,030 net contracts this week with a gain of 41,857 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

This Copper Co. May Be a Perfect Proxy for 2024 Metals Advances, Expert Says

Source: Michael Ballanger  (3/14/24)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his take on the current copper market, as well as a few copper stock recommendations.

Copper prices rocketed up and through the $4.00/lb. level yesterday morning, sending Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX:NYSE) to a new reaction high at $42.50 and the June $40 calls to $4.74.

The 52-week high at $44.70 gives way to the all-time high just above $50. Freeport-McMoRan has huge copper operations, plus the mighty Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has the world’s largest copper and gold reserves.

With copper and gold both breaking out in recent days, FCX is a perfect proxy for 2024 metals advances.

  • Minor resistance was at $42
  • Next stop $44.70
  • Then $50

I see a $6-8/lb. copper price by year-end, which means prices are much higher for FCX.

My junior copper list focuses on:

  • Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) (CA$0.19 / US$0.14)
  • American Eagle Gold Corp. (AE:TSXV) (CA$0.62 / US$0.46)
  • Sprott Junior Copper Miners ETF (COPJ:NASDAQ) (US$19.76)

Copper just traded at $4.0393/lb. Escape velocity achieved!

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc. and American Eagle Gold Corp.
  2. Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  3. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Rising US producer inflation may reduce the number of scheduled Fed rate cuts

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.35%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.29%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.30%.

The US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 218,000. Thursday’s US retail sales report for February 0.6% m/m was weaker than market expectations of 0.8%, while the January figure was revised downward to 1.1% m/m from 0.8%. The February PPI reading of 1.6% y/y was stronger than market expectations of 1.2% and exceeded the revised January reading of 1.0% y/y (preliminary 0.9%). However, February core PPI fell to a 2-year low of 3.8% y/y. Either way, February’s core CPI and PPI remain above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

After the release of macro statistics, UST yields started to rise, and stock indices were corrected. Investors fear that amid high inflation, the Fed may reduce the number of scheduled rate cuts this year from three to two. So far, this is unlikely, but any hints from Mr. Powell on this trend at the upcoming meeting may trigger the beginning of a correction in the indices.

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) closed 4.12% lower, adding 4.81% to Wednesday’s losses. UBS lowered its price target for Tesla on Thursday from $165 to $225 but maintained a neutral rating. The bearish sentiment on TSLA has persisted since Wednesday, when Wells Fargo downgraded Tesla to “underweight” from “equal-weight” due to its view that electric vehicle sales will remain flat in 2024 and decline in 2025.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.66%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.37%.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Stournaras said on Thursday that he favors two interest rate cuts before the ECB’s August break and two more before the end of the year. He also said a rate cut in June is more likely than one in April. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 10% at the next meeting on April 11 and 90% at the next meeting on June 6. In Europe today, investors will assess final inflation data in France and Italy.

Oil prices rose because of an IEA report released on Thursday that said oil markets will face a supply shortage by the end of this year due to OPEC+ production cuts. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that global oil markets would be in deficit by the end of 2024 if OPEC+ maintained its current production cuts. However, the balance would become a surplus if OPEC+ started pumping more oil. OPEC+ will meet on June 1 to decide on production levels for the second half 2024.

Natural gas prices rose Thursday after the EIA’s weekly report showed US gas inventories fell by 9 billion cubic feet, which was higher than market expectations of 2 billion cubic feet. Natural gas prices are also under pressure after the Freeport LNG natural gas export terminal in Texas shut down one of three production units on March 1 due to damage caused by freezing weather in Texas. The unit is scheduled to resume operations this week.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.29% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.23%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.71% on Thursday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.20%.

Major Japanese companies have already agreed to meet union demands for wage increases. This raises the possibility that the central bank (BoJ) could exit its negative interest rate policy as early as next week due to rising wages, high inflation, and a stable economy.

Australia’s economy grew less than expected in the fourth quarter, supporting bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting rates this year. Markets currently estimate a 70% probability of the RBA starting to cut the money rate in August, with 40 basis points of easing this year.

The National Bureau of Statistics released Chinese house price data for February for a sample of 70 cities, which showed continued price declines in line with expectations. Average primary market prices fell 0.36% month-over-month, while average secondary market prices fell 0.62% month-over-month. Both figures were similar to the January decline.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,150.48 −14.83 (−0.29%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,905.66 −137.66 (−0.35%)

DAX (DE40) 17,942.04 −19.34 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,743.15 −29.02 (−0.37%)

USD Index 103.36 +0.57 (+0.55%)

Important events today:
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.