10 Apr

Gold: Setting Near-Term Price Targets

This was our “initial upside target” — which has now been exceeded. What’s next?

By Elliott Wave International

Around the first week of the year, the outlook for gold was not looking promising, at least according to this Jan. 5 headline (Reuters):

Gold set for weekly decline as dollar, yields climb

The rally in gold which started in early October continued to struggle for much of the rest of January.

Even though the mainstream media was looking to so-called fundamentals — such as the action of the dollar or bond yields — Elliott Wave International focused on the patterns of investor psychology — as reflected by Elliott waves.

Indeed, on Jan. 24, the U.S. Short Term Update, a thrice weekly Elliott Wave International publication which focuses on major U.S. financial markets, said:

Spot [Gold] made its lowest close since January 17 today. Still, prices remain above $1972.89, which keeps the short-term bullish potential dominant. The [unfolding Elliott wave] should carry gold well above $2250 as the rally’s pattern progresses.

Keep in mind that when this analysis was offered more than two months ago, the price of gold was trading around $2013 — a far cry from our price target above $2250.

Now, fast forward to April 1 and this headline (CNBC):

Treasury yields jump to start second quarter

As you’ll recall, rising bond yields were mentioned in the media as a negative for gold back in January.

But what did gold do on April 1? Correct — it hit another all-time high.

Not only that, April 1 was the day that our price target was reached.

Here’s a quote from the April 1 U.S. Short Term Update:

The initial upside target for [Gold] was “above $2250,” which we first stated in the January 24 Short Term Update and reaffirmed throughout February and March. Gold hit this target today when spot prices pushed to $2263.64 intraday.

On April 2, gold traded even higher.

Remember, Elliott Wave International doesn’t make forecasts for financial markets — like gold — based on common beliefs about “fundamentals” which investors cannot count on.

Instead, we arrive at price targets based on Elliott wave analysis.

If you’d like to learn more about Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this “must read” book:

When after a while the apparent jumble gels into a clear picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

If you’d like to learn about the Wave Principle, know that you can gain complimentary access to the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior for free.

Just follow the link and you can have the Wall Street bestseller on your computer in moments: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Gold: Setting Near-Term Price Targets. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Metals
10 Apr

The RBNZ kept the interest rate at 5.5%. Intel plans to compete with Nvidia in AI chips

By JustMarkets

At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.02%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.32% yesterday. Tuesday afternoon saw the emergence of short positions amid comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said he sees one Fed rate cut this year but is willing to change his mind toward additional rate cuts if the economic picture changes. In addition, weakness in industrial stocks, insurance companies, and telecommunication companies harmed the overall market.

Today, the US will release its monthly consumer inflation report. This report will affect the likelihood of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June. Economists expect core inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, to slow to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.8% in the previous month. However, overall inflation may rise to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% y/y. If the data comes out in line with forecasts, it would mean a mixed report for the US Fed. A decline in the core indicator (excluding food and energy prices) would indicate a continuation of the overall disinflation trend, while a rise in the overall indicator would likely reflect higher oil prices over the past month. Any surprise in the form of continued inflationary pressures will support the US dollar, especially as FOMC policymakers again discussed the possibility of holding rates longer on the back of strong economic data. While economists had previously planned for 3 rate cuts by the US Fed this year, they are now planning for 1-2 total cuts. This will be a green light for the dollar, putting pressure on risk assets, indices, and partly gold. However, gold could rise even as the dollar rises, which is rare. If the data comes out below expectations (inflation will fall more than the market expects), it will increase the probability of a rate cut in June, which will put pressure on the US dollar and lead to the growth of risk assets (euro, pound, franc), as well as support stock indices.

Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than 2% after Intel said it is bringing to market a new artificial intelligence chip called Gaudi 3. Intel CEO Gelsinger said it will be faster and more energy efficient than Nvidia’s H100 chip and will be priced “well below” the cost of current and future Nvidia chips.

The first quarter corporate earnings season kicks off this Friday with the release of results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). The consensus expects S&P 500 companies to average 3.9% y/y earnings growth in Q1, the lowest year-over-year earnings growth rate since 2019.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) will meet today. Markets are pricing at a 15% chance of a rate cut, so the BoCis is unlikely to cut rates at this meeting due to concerns about wage-led inflation. However, the BoC may give clearer signals that a rate cut will happen this summer. Oil prices will also influence the Canadian dollar, with any escalation in the Middle East likely to benefit the oil-exporting currency.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.32%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.86% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.88%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.11% on Tuesday.

In its quarterly bank lending review, the ECB reported that demand for corporate credit in the Eurozone fell significantly in the first quarter as the region continues to suffer from elevated borrowing costs.

WTI crude oil prices traded near $85 a barrel on Wednesday after falling for two consecutive sessions. A larger-than-expected increase in US crude inventories and ongoing diplomatic talks between Israel and Hamas helped ease supply concerns. API data showed US crude inventories rose 3.034 million barrels last week, exceeding forecasts for a 2.415 million barrel increase and reversing a 2.286 million barrel decline the previous week. In the Middle East, the Hamas movement said it would study Israel’s ceasefire proposal and present its response to mediators, raising hopes of averting a wider conflict in the region. However, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned it could disrupt trade through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, which could hit a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.08% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.38%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.57% over yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.45%.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the official cash rate (OCR) at 5.5% at the April 2024 policy meeting, extending the rate pause for the sixth time and confirming market expectations. Policymakers noted that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate to further reduce pressure on manufacturing capacity and inflation. Although core domestic inflation slowed to a two-and-a-half-year low of 4.7% in Q4 2023, it remained well above the 1-3% target. The Committee believes the OCR should remain at a restrictive level for an extended period to help annual consumer inflation return to the target range.

Bank of Japan data showed that producer prices in Japan rose by 0.8% year-on-year in March 2024, matching expectations and the highest since last October.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,209.91 +7.52 (+0.14%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,883.67 −9.13 (−0.023%)

DAX (DE40) 18,076.69 -242.28 (−1.32%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,934.79 −8.68 (−0.11%)

USD Index 104.11 −0.03 (−0.03%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Rate Statement at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Press Conference at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
10 Apr

NZD is G10’s best-performer so far today. But will it last?

By ForexTime

  • Markets boosted the “kiwi” after “hawkish” RBNZ signals
  • More action expected with US CPI, FOMC minutes to be released
  • Softer US inflation may boost NZDUSD by further 700 points
  • Still-elevated CPI may force NZDUSD to fall by some 200-400 points

 

The Kiwi is currently the best-performing G10 currency against the US dollar!

NZDUSD surged after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5%, as widely expected.

More importantly for Kiwi bulls (those hoping that NZDUSD would go higher) …

the RBNZ said that its policy needs to be “restrictive for a sustained period”.

And as we know, markets tend to reward the currency of the economy whose interest rates can stay higher for longer.

 

Following the RBNZ decision, NZDUSD a.k.a the “kiwi” saw a price movement range of over 300 points rallying to a high of 0.60774.

This psychological 0.60700 level will be closely monitored ahead of today’s US CPI release!

The US consumer price index (CPI) measures the rate of inflation, that is, the changes in the prices of a basket of goods and services over a period, in the United States.

The incoming data is expected to show:

  •  Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. March 2023 (year-on-year): 3.4%
    If that is the case, that 3.4% would be higher than February’s 3.2% year-on-year figure

  • Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. February 2024 (month-on-month): 0.3%
    If that is the case, that 0.3% would be lower than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure

  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 3.7%
    If that is the case, that 3.7% would be lower than February’s 3.8% year-on-year figure

  • Core CPI month-on-month: 0.3%
    If that is the case, that 0.3% would be lower than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure.

 

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

  • A hotter-than-expected US CPI report may be seen as bullish for the US dollar, likely dragging NZDUSD lower.
  • A softer-than-expected US CPI report may be interpreted as bearish for the greenback, perhaps even lifting NZDUSD past its 50-day SMA (simple moving average).

 

 

But wait, there’s more …

More FX volatility could be expected after the US CPI announcement.

The FOMC’s March meeting minutes are due to be released at 6:00 pm GMT today (Wednesday, April 10th).

  • NZDUSD may move lower if the FOMC minutes show that the US central bank is less convinced about the prospects of 75-basis points in cuts for this year, instead preferring fewer rate cuts.
  • However, NZDUSD could be given a boost if policymakers have greater confidence (more than they’ve conveyed to the public so far) that they can follow through with the 75-basis points of rate cuts pencilled in last month.

 

 

Looking at the chart above …

NZDUSD has rallied for over 1300 points from its year-to-date low at 0.59391.

A surprisingly soft US CPI, with the year-on-year figures close to 3%, may turbocharge the “kiwi” upwards by a further 700 points!

This could send NZDUSD to an upper trendline resistance around 0.61382!

 Possible near-term resistance:

  • 0.60839: the 100% Fibonacci level which is the current zone of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA)

The Fibonacci retracement levels are taken from the December 13th low at 0.60839 to the December 28th high at 0.63692.

 

On hotter-than-expected US CPI data, the US dollar may strengthen, which sets Kiwi up for a decline.

Possible near-term support can be seen at

  • 0.60506: an important price level, and upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe.
  • 0.60319: the 21-day SMA

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
10 Apr

EUR/USD holds steady ahead of key economic updates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is maintaining a neutral stance, trading around 1.0851 on Wednesday, as the market anticipates crucial updates, including the US inflation data for March and the outcome of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. Given the significant events on the horizon, investors are exhibiting caution.

The US inflation rate for March is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-on-month increase, slightly below February’s 0.4% rise. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also expected to grow by 0.3% month-on-month. The market consensus leans towards the US Federal Reserve reducing its interest rate by 75 basis points throughout 2024, indicating three separate 25-point cuts.

Despite the increase in yields on US government bonds since the start of the year, the US dollar’s reaction has been relatively subdued, with only a 2.5% appreciation against a 47-basis point widening in benchmark bond yields. This disparity suggests that the US dollar may play catch-up with Treasury yields, or bond yields might decrease to close the gap. This raises questions about the timing of this adjustment.

The ECB’s interest rate is expected to remain at 4.5% per annum, with the European regulator likely to wait for the Fed’s move towards easing monetary policy before making its adjustments. This approach is taken even though the eurozone has effectively managed high inflation ahead of other developed economies, theoretically positioning it to adapt its monetary policy sooner.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The H4 chart analysis of EUR/USD indicates a correction wave to 1.0883 followed by a decrease to 1.0844. A narrow consolidation range has formed above this level, potentially leading to a correction towards 1.0904 before a new decline towards 1.0790, with a continuation to 1.0700 as a possible target. The MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and the histogram declining, suggests a potential sharp decrease.

The H1 chart shows a consolidation range of around 1.0850, extending to 1.0884. The market has returned to 1.0843, with the possibility of another correction wave to 1.0904 before a downward movement to 1.0790. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 50, indicates a continuation of the decline towards 20, supporting the bearish scenario.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
09 Apr

Israel and Hamas have not reached an agreement. Markets await US consumer price report

By JustMarkets

Stock indices closed slightly lower on Monday as the yields on 10-year T-notes rose to a 4-month-high. At the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.03%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.04%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.05% yesterday.

Markets await Wednesday’s US consumer price report to determine the direction of the dollar and indices. They also await the first quarter corporate earnings season, which begins this Friday with results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC).

Tesla shares are up more than 4% after CEO Musk said the company will unveil its robot cabs on August 8. Nike (NKE) shares are up more than 1% and led the Dow Jones Industrials higher after Hedgeye Risk Management upgraded the stock to a “buy” from a “hold” rating.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.79%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.72%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.41% on Monday.

UK retail sales in March 2024 rose by 3.2% y/y, the strongest increase since August last year, mainly due to the Easter holiday, which boosted food sales.

The Apr Sentix Eurozone Investor Confidence Index rose by 4.6% to a 2-year high 5.9%, stronger than expectations of 8.3%. German industrial production for February rose by 2.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.5% m/m and the largest increase in 13 months. German trade data was mixed. German exports for February fell by 2.0% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m. Imports for February unexpectedly rose by 3.2% m/m vs. expectations of 1.2% m/m.

WTI crude futures rose to $86/bbl on Tuesday after falling to $84.3/bbl in the previous session as the latest ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt failed to progress. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel would continue the plans. A senior Hamas official also said they had rejected Israel’s latest ceasefire offer made at the talks in Cairo. Risks of further supply disruptions continued to drive oil prices higher as Iran vowed to retaliate against an alleged Israeli attack that killed Iranian generals in Syria.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.78%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.05% over yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.20%.

In Australia, consumer sentiment weakened for the second consecutive month in April as inflation and high-interest rates weighed heavily. A Westpac report said that while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled that rates are unlikely to rise, it needs more confidence in the inflation outlook to consider cutting rates. Markets had been betting that the central bank would start cutting rates later this year, but robust employment data and rising house prices dampened the outlook. Meanwhile, business confidence improved in March but remained below the long-term average.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,202.39 −1.95 (−0.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,892.80 −11.24 (−0.03%)

DAX (DE40) 18,318.97 +143.93 (+0.79%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,943.47 +32.31 (+0.41%)

USD Index 104.14 −0.16 (−0.15%)

Important events today:
  • – New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (m/m) at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
09 Apr

Yen weakens amid intervention concerns and interest rate differentials

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen is experiencing a notable decline against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair currently hovering around 151.88 on Tuesday. Despite the US dollar’s instability, driven primarily by fluctuations in Treasury bond yields, the yen faces significant downward pressure.

Market participants remain cautious, particularly as the USD/JPY pair approaches levels that had previously triggered currency interventions by Japanese authorities. Despite aggressive verbal measures from Japan aimed at bolstering the yen, these efforts have shown limited success. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has reiterated Japan’s commitment to addressing the yen’s excessive depreciation, echoing his earlier statements about readiness to intervene against further declines in its value.

However, the prospect of intervention, although a genuine threat, has thus far prevented the yen from breaching the 152.00 mark.

This substantial interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a critical factor contributing to the yen’s weakness. While the BoJ has only recently moved away from its negative interest rate policy, setting its lending rate back to zero, the Federal Reserve maintains a fund rate of 5.5% per annum, with no cuts implemented thus far.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has completed a growth wave to 151.75 and corrected to the 150.80 level. Another growth wave to 151.75 has been observed today, with the market forming a consolidation range around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a rise to 152.07. After reaching this level, a correction to 151.75 (testing from above) may occur, followed by an increase to 152.70. This scenario is supported by the MACD oscillator, with its signal line above zero and poised to reach new highs.

On the H1 chart, support at 151.75 has bolstered the development of a growth structure to 152.07. After achieving this target, a correction to 151.75 may be seen, potentially leading to further growth towards 152.70, the main target of the growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this analysis with its signal line above 50 and preparing to ascend to 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
08 Apr

Israel withdraws troops from the southern Gaza Strip. Canada’s labor market remains resilient

By JustMarkets

Stock indices rose Friday on optimism that growth in the US economy will continue to drive consumer spending and corporate profits. Stocks rose even after a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report released Friday raised the likelihood of a longer-term interest rate hike. The Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.80% (for the week -1.64%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index increased by 1.11% (for the week -1.02%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.24% on Friday (for the week -1.31%).

The US nonfarm payrolls for March rose 303,000, exceeding expectations of 214,000 and representing the largest increase in 10 months. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 3.8% in March, matching expectations. The US average hourly earnings fell to 4.1% y/y from 4.3% y/y in February, matching expectations and representing the slowest rate of growth in 2 years.

Fed spokeswoman Bowman said she still sees several upside risks to inflation and “it is not yet time” to cut interest rates. She added that it is possible that the federal funds rate level consistent with low and stable inflation “will be higher than it was before the pandemic, and if so, fewer rate cuts will eventually be needed to return our monetary policy stance to neutral.” Dallas Fed President Logan said on Friday that it was “too early” to cut interest rates because there are concerns that inflationary progress could stall and that price growth may not cool down to the Fed’s 2 percent target in a “timely manner.” The Fed’s hawkish comments on Friday drove bond yields higher and suggested that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 6% for the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 58% for the next meeting on June 12.

Tesla (TSLA) stock price fell more than 3% and topped the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reports that the company canceled its plans for a low-cost entry-level Tesla car.

The number of jobs in Canada was unchanged last month, but the fundamentals fared better. Average hourly earnings in Canada rose to a 4.5% m/m SAAR. This is a solid increase after 4.3% in the previous month. On the other hand, rising wages are a factor in rising inflation, which may force the Bank of Canada to delay plans to start cutting rates. The Bank of Canada is looking at an annualized rate of 5%, up a tick from the previous month. It means that wages are rising too fast relative to the inflation target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 1.24% (for the week -1.64%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.11% on Friday (for the week -1.89%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.58% (for the week -1.44%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.81% on Friday (for the week -0.26%).

Eurozone February retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m. German Factory Orders in February rose by 0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.7% m/m. The German Import Price Index for February fell by 0.2% m/m and 4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of unchanged m/m and 4.6% y/y. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on April 11 and 97% at the next meeting on June 6.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 2% to $85 a barrel on Monday as Israel withdrew troops from the southern Gaza Strip in response to mounting international pressure. Israel and Hamas also resumed peace talks in Egypt, easing tensions that have led to the recent surge in oil prices. Meanwhile, major oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised official selling prices for all grades of crude for Asia in May amid tightening global supply.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by  4.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.17% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.59%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said inflation will likely accelerate from “summer to fall” as a sharp wage rise will increase prices. It was his strongest hint yet of the possibility of another rate hike in the coming months. Ueda added that the central bank could “respond with monetary policy” if currency movements significantly affect inflation and wages, suggesting that a sharp fall in the yen could affect the timing of the next rate hike.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to quickly decide to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Still, the central bank will have to deal with stagnant inflation amid growing financial stress. The official money rate is forecast to be kept at 5.5%, but there could be dovish adjustments to the forecasts. UBS believes that the RBNZ will wait until November before cutting interest rates.

On Sunday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a 500 billion yuan “re-lending” program for technology innovation and transformation to support small and medium-sized technology enterprises. This week, investors await China’s latest inflation data for economic and monetary policy insights.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,204.34 +57.13 (+1.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,904.04 +307.06 (+0.80%)

DAX (DE40) 18,175.04 −228.09 (−1.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,911.16 −64.73 (−0.81%)

USD Index 104.29 +0.17 (+0.16%)

Important events today:
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 18:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
08 Apr

Trade of the Week: Cryptos to rise again this CPI week?

By ForexTime

  • Bitcoin back to within 2% of record high!
  • All 11 FXTM Crypto CFDs climbing in tandem with Bitcoin
  • Cryptos often rise the same week that US inflation data is released
  • Cryptos’ weekly advance is tampered with 2 days of declines
  • Solana offered “strongest hedge” against Gold on CPI days so far this year

 

Cryptos are skyrocketing today (Monday, April 8th)!

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is surging over 4% and sliced well beyond the $70k psychological level.

The “OG” crypto is now trading at its highest levels since mid-March when it posted a record high of $73,850.

Perhaps more importantly for bulls (those hoping that prices will go higher), Bitcoin appears to have conquered the stubborn $71,400 resistance region which had capped prices in late March.

 

Bitcoin’s advance has lifted up many other cryptocurrencies along with it.

Within the 11 different crypto CFDs offered by FXTM:

  • At the time of writing, Ethereum is the best-performer so far today, surging over 6%
  • Besides Bitcoin, there are also one-day gains of more than 4% so far for Litecoin, Chainlink, Cardano, Dogecoin, and Bitcoin Cash respectively
  • Solana, Ripple, Avalanch, and Polygon are each rising over 2%

 

Potential breakout for Ripple and Litecoin?

Today’s surge is also translating into a couple of cryptos testing key resistance levels:

  • Ripple is now testing its 50-day simple moving average (SMA)

 

 

  • Litecoin is threatening to break above its upper downward trendline, which has supressed its prices since that April 1st intraday high.

 

The above-listed price movements come at the onset of a massive week for global financial markets.

The latest US inflation data is due this Wednesday, April 10th.

NOTE: CPI = consumer price index, is used to measure inflation

This monthly inflation data release out of the world’s largest economy often causes trillions of dollars to move across global financial markets.

Traders and investors decipher what the latest CPI figures would mean for the Fed’s interest rates outlook – arguably the primary focus of markets worldwide.

 

 

How do cryptos tend to behave on CPI weeks?

 

1) Cryptos have risen every week that the highly-anticipated US inflation data is released so far in 2024!

Here’s how cryptos have generally fared, as measured by the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, the same week as the US CPI announcement:

 

  • Week ending March 15th = +0.9%
    (US CPI released on March 12th, 2024)

 

  • Week ending February 16th = +9%
    (US CPI released on February 13th, 2024)

 

  • Week ending January 12th = +5.6%
    (US CPI released on January 11th, 2024)

 

NOTE: The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index measures the performance of some of the largest cryptocurrencies traded in USD, 8 of which are offered by FXTM as Crypto CFDs namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Solana, Avalanche, Polygon, Litecoin, and Chainlink.
These 8 cryptos account for 92.4% of the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.

 

If the upward momentum currently evident across the crypto complex can persist …

that would only extend this trend of cryptos posting weekly advances when US inflation data is released.

 

 

 

2) Weekly advance, but with 2 days of declines

To be clear, it’s not a straight path upwards for cryptos towards a weekly advance. 

Each of those CPI weeks so far this year has seen 2 different days of declines for the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index.

Such volatility ensures that crypto CFDs traders still have opportunities this week to potentially benefit from both rising and falling prices.

 

 

3) Solana has so far acted as “perfect” hedge against Gold

In trading, “hedging” means protecting against potential losses by making offsetting investments.

It’s like buying insurance for your investments to minimize risks from price changes.

And we know that Gold is a popularly-traded product on CPI release days.

The precious metal tends to post a larger-than-usual move on the days that the US consumer price index (CPI) is released.

Bullion has, on average, seen a $25 move between its highest prices and its lowest price on any given trading day so far in 2024.

This chart below shows the larger-than-average moves (white bars that extend above the red line) for gold on the 3 days that has seen CPI announcements so far this year.

 

 

However, the official CPI number can and do surprise markets, and may go against the trader’s position.

In order to potentially offset such losses,

Solana has been shown to offer a strong hedge against gold on CPI days.

 

Note how Solana has fared in comparison to Gold on US CPI release days so far this year:

 

  • US CPI release on March 12th, 2024

    Gold = -1.12%

    Solana = +1.46%

 

  • US CPI release on February 13th, 2024

    Gold = -1.33%

    Solana = +0.67%

 

  • US CPI released on January 11th, 2024

    Gold = +0.22%

    Solana = -2.09%

 

In other words … Solana and Gold have moved in OPPOSITE directions on every single US CPI release days so far in 2024.

Of the 11 crypto CFDs offered by FXTM, this “inverse relationship” (when asset A goes up, asset B goes down, and vice versa) is strongest between Solana and Gold on US CPI announcement days.

This perhaps sets up Solana as a suitable “hedge” against Gold for this upcoming CPI release due Wednesday, April 10th, provided this “inverse relationship” holds strong once more this week.

 

 

Remember, past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

And trading is risky at all times!

Thus, it remains to be seen whether the 3 above-listed behaviours exhibited by Crypto CFDs will prove true once again this week.

Regardless, CPI announcements tend to inject massive bouts of volatility across global financial markets.

And that in turn may result in outsized trading opportunities in Crypto CFDs.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
08 Apr

Gold hits new record high amid favourable factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold’s price soared to a new record high on Monday, stabilising around 2344.00 USD per troy ounce. A confluence of factors is currently bolstering the precious metal’s value.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are a significant driver, positioning gold as a preferred “safe-haven” investment. Additionally, central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, while global exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the metal’s price continue to show keen interest.

Recent US job market data for March surpassed expectations, indicating a robust end to the first quarter for the US economy. These developments could impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, as lower rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price increase.

Since the start of the year, gold has appreciated over 12% in value, showcasing an impressive performance for what is traditionally viewed as a conservative asset.

XAU/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart for XAU/USD indicates that a growth wave reached 2330.00, followed by the formation of a consolidation range around this level. This range has now expanded to 2353.85. A technical retracement to 2330.00 is anticipated (testing from above), with potential subsequent growth to 2380.33 as a local target. The MACD indicator, with its signal line well above zero and pointing upwards, supports this growth scenario.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD established support at 2269.00, completing a growth structure to 2330.53. A consolidation range has formed around this level, now extended to 2353.85. A corrective move to 2327.50 (testing from above) is expected, potentially leading to a new growth wave towards 2386.36. This forecast is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line preparing to drop to 50 before climbing back to 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
06 Apr

Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets for 9th week to most bearish since 2019

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by British Pound & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (8,244 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,767 contracts), the Mexican Peso (1,662 contracts) and Bitcoin (1,235 contracts) also seeing positive a week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-14,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-14,124 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-11,948 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,504 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,267 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-933 contracts) and with the Swiss Franc (-402 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets for 9th week to most bearish since 2019

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline in the speculator’s positioning for the Swiss franc. Large speculative Swiss franc (CHF) currency positions fell this week by a modest -402 net contracts but have now dropped for a ninth consecutive week. The speculator bets have also fallen for the tenth time out of the past eleven weeks as well – for a total 11-week decrease of -18,632 contracts.

This rapid decline in sentiment has taken the CHF speculative position to the most bearish level in the past two hundred and fifty-one weeks, dating all the way back to June 11th of 2019 when the net position totaled -24,788 contracts.

Helping to dent the Swiss franc’s appeal was a recent surprise interest rate cut by the the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in late March. This rate reduction took the interest rate down by 25 basis points to 1.5 percent and marked the SNB as the first major central bank to start a rate cutting cycle after global inflation pushed most central banks to raise rates in the past two years. As a major export country, the interest rate decrease and a falling franc is desirable for Switzerland businesses which will help exports become more competitive.

The CHF exchange rate versus the US Dollar has been on the decline after a strong uptrend from the 4th quarter of 2022 to late-2023 that saw the franc reach the highest exchange rate since 2015 at 1.2099 (CHF futures or CHFUSD). Since that high-point in December, the franc has been on the downtrend and closed out this week at the 1.1172 exchange rate to the Dollar and about 8 percent off that December high.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (69 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (1 percent), the Australian Dollar (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.5 percent)
EuroFX (27.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (33.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (82.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (45.8 percent)
Bitcoin (68.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (50.2 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (34 percent) and the Mexican Peso (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends and are the only positive movers for the currencies.

The Canadian Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-40 percent), Swiss Franc (-35 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-5.6 percent)
EuroFX (-21.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-1.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-18.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-34.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-44.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-42.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-37.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-18.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-23.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-40.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-26.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (19.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (16.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (-25.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.8 percent)
Bitcoin (34.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.122.212.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.123.06.7
– Net Position:-1,896-3052,201
– Gross Longs:23,6818,4464,744
– Gross Shorts:25,5778,7512,543
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.9100.036.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.35.97.2

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.660.410.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.165.38.3
– Net Position:16,794-33,43216,638
– Gross Longs:188,258412,48073,567
– Gross Shorts:171,464445,91256,929
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.576.75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.821.0-7.7

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.941.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.159.113.3
– Net Position:43,414-39,400-4,014
– Gross Longs:98,35290,14625,106
– Gross Shorts:54,938129,54629,120
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.123.650.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.95.4-13.2

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -143,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -14,124 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -129,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.464.815.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.620.714.8
– Net Position:-143,230139,4943,736
– Gross Longs:55,190205,19550,476
– Gross Shorts:198,42065,70146,740
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.094.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.211.127.7

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,370 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.464.511.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.020.029.8
– Net Position:-22,37038,683-16,313
– Gross Longs:21,22056,1449,682
– Gross Shorts:43,59017,46125,995
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 13.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.740.8-30.7

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -51,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.461.014.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.434.414.7
– Net Position:-51,22352,481-1,258
– Gross Longs:44,220120,30727,748
– Gross Shorts:95,44367,82629,006
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.184.320.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.331.9-1.7

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -102,685 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.473.39.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.022.514.1
– Net Position:-102,685114,086-11,401
– Gross Longs:34,557164,79020,421
– Gross Shorts:137,24250,70431,822
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.497.525.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.715.5-1.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,024 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.062.25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.144.910.6
– Net Position:-7,52810,695-3,167
– Gross Longs:19,72538,4213,383
– Gross Shorts:27,25327,7266,550
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.066.813.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.245.2-56.0

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 133,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 132,068 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.936.12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.480.40.9
– Net Position:133,730-139,4355,705
– Gross Longs:191,685113,5028,643
– Gross Shorts:57,955252,9372,938
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.047.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.1-18.62.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,948 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.234.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.532.22.9
– Net Position:-3,2611,3591,902
– Gross Longs:30,31818,1393,413
– Gross Shorts:33,57916,7801,511
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.368.552.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.725.2-0.3

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 160 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.75.15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.28.52.6
– Net Position:160-1,008848
– Gross Longs:24,3111,5131,619
– Gross Shorts:24,1512,521771
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.839.132.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.0-56.2-1.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
← Previous Page
Next Page →