InvestMacro

Supreme Court rules Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful

On Friday, trading on the US stock market ended with gains. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) jumped by 0.47% (+0.38% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.69% (+1.10% for the week). The technology-heavy Nasdaq Index (US100) closed higher by 0.87% (+1.42% for the week). The positive dynamics were triggered by a Supreme Court decision that ruled the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariffs unlawful, sparking hopes for the return of approximately $175 billion to companies. Despite weak GDP data (+1.4%) and the President’s immediate promise to introduce a new 10% global tariff via executive order, investors focused on the short-term legal triumph. In the short term, traders are forced to balance optimism from court rulings against new regulatory risks that continue to pressure long-term yield expectations.

On Friday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) declined to the 1.37 level against the US dollar, hitting a monthly low amid strengthening US bonds and a correction in the energy market. Despite the positive momentum from the US Supreme Court decision overturning global trade tariffs, Canada’s national currency came under pressure due to the widening yield gap with US assets. The Fed’s hawkish stance, supported by PCE inflation data at 3%, contrasts with the wait-and-see tactics of the Bank of Canada (BoC), which is holding the rate at 2.25% while the Domestic Consumer Price Index slows to 2.6%.

The Mexican peso (MXN) demonstrated a confident rally, strengthening past the 17.15 per dollar mark, its best performance in a year and a half. The main driver of optimism was the US Supreme Court decision, which annulled the Trump administration’s global tariffs, thereby eliminating a critical risk for Mexico’s export sector. Investors remain focused on the policy of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), whose strategy of maintaining high interest rates continues to provide significant support to the peso amid fading trade uncertainty.

On Monday, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $65,000, reaching its lowest level in more than two weeks. Pressure on the market intensified amid renewed concerns surrounding US tariff policy, which triggered volatility in global markets. Recently, Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have shown weak dynamics compared to other asset classes.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Friday. The German DAX (DE40) increased by 0.87% (+1.09% for the week), the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.39% (+2.31% for the week), the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.94% (+2.47% for the week), and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at positive 0.56% (+2.30% for the week). European stock indices started the week with a decline amid intensifying trade confrontation with the US. Investors are reacting to Donald Trump’s decision to raise the announced global levy from 10% to 15%, the maximum level allowed under the 1974 law, after the US Supreme Court blocked his previous protectionist executive orders. The EU’s reaction was immediate: Brussels called on Washington to respect previously reached agreements and threatened to freeze the ratification of current trade agreements until legal clarifications are received from the American side. Despite assurances from US officials about maintaining the status quo for key partners, supply chain uncertainty is driving traders out of risky assets.

WTI oil prices ended the week with a confident gain of 5%, stabilizing around $66 per barrel. The main catalyst for the rally was a sharp increase in geopolitical risks: Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran and a massive buildup of the US military presence in the Middle East sparked fears regarding the stability of supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Since Iran accounts for about 3% of global production, a potential conflict threatens significant volumes of crude, forcing investors to price in a high risk premium. Traders continue to closely monitor Tehran’s 15-day deadline, expecting further volatility depending on the outcome of nuclear negotiations.

US natural gas (XNG) prices ended Friday’s trading with a sharp jump above $3.1 per MMBtu, gaining more than 4% amid expected cold weather in the Northeast. Despite this local spike, quotes showed negative dynamics for the full week, losing about 4% in value. The main pressure on the market is exerted by a significant increase in production across the Lower 48 states, which in February closely approached the historical highs of December, reaching 108.7 billion cubic feet per day, offsetting concerns about supply shortages. Even maintaining record LNG export volumes cannot fully compensate for excessive domestic production and subdued heating demand, which limits the potential for a long-term price recovery.

Asian markets traded with mixed dynamics last week. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.68% over the trading week, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade due to the Lunar New Year celebrations, the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) depreciated by 3.06% during the short week, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 1.52% over the 5 days.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index showed an impressive 2.4% gain at Monday’s opening, reaching 27,056 points. Optimism swept through all sectors amid expectations for the reopening of mainland China markets after the Lunar New Year holiday. Investors interpreted Trump’s new 15% tariff as a measure that could unexpectedly play into Beijing’s hands by strengthening China’s position in global trade alliances. The Hong Kong market is currently acting as a leading indicator, pricing in a scenario where pragmatism in US-China relations outweighs tariff threats.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,909.51 +47.62 (+0.69%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,625.97 +230.81 (+0.47%)

DAX (DE40) 25,260.69 +217.12 +(0.87%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,686.89 +59.85 (+0.56%)

USD Index 97.79 −0.14% (−0.14%)

News feed for: 2026.02.23

Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2); – SGD (MED)
German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Mexico GDP (q/q) at 14:00 (GMT+2); – MXN (MED)
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:30 (GMT+2). – EUR (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Feb

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen, USD Index Bets into Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen, AUD & CAD

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (32,061 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,722 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (12,550 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,378 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,057 contracts), the Brazilian Real (681 contracts) and Bitcoin (621 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-16,594 contracts), the EuroFX (-5,825 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-829 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (-94 contracts) registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen, USD Index Bets into Bullish Positions

Highlighting the currency data this week, there were strong gains by the Japanese Yen, the Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar while the US Dollar Index saw its first bullish position in quite a while.

The Japanese yen speculator position this week rose by over +32,000 weekly contracts. This was the highest jump in one-week contracts since October. The Japanese weekly speculator contracts have now risen for five consecutive weeks and in seven out of the last nine weeks. This positive sentiment has brought the Japanese yen net speculator position back into a bullish level with a total net standing of 12,955 contracts this week. This is the first positive week out of the last six weeks for the Japanese yen position in the FOREX markets. The Japanese yen has continued to be a subdued currency against the US dollar and saw a shortfall this week. The USD/JPY currency pair this week closed above the 155.00 level, which remains near historic Japanese yen weakness. However, this currency pair has bounced off of resistance at the 160.00 level for the third time in the past year.

The Australian Dollar speculator position continues to improve week to week. This week’s gain was over +12,000 contracts, and the Australian Dollar speculator position has now risen for 12 consecutive weeks. The spec position has jumped by over +130,000 contracts in the past 12 weeks, which has brought the position from a -84,176 contracts on November 25th to this week’s total of 45,931 net contracts. The Australian Dollar speculator level had been so consistently bearish that we have not seen a net position above this week’s level since October of 2017. In the forex markets, the Australian Dollar keeps chugging along higher against the US Dollar and this week closed above the 0.7075 level, marking the highest close since 2023. The Australian Dollar is higher by approximately 6% since the beginning of 2026.

Next up, the Canadian Dollar has also been on a rise as the speculator position has now risen for five consecutive weeks and has been higher in 10 out of the last 12 weeks. In just these last 12 weeks alone, the speculator position has surged by +176,240 contracts, taking the overall net position from a super bearish total of -150,414 net contracts on November 25th to this week’s bullish position of 25,826 net contracts. The Canadian Dollar has also been modestly rising in the currency markets against the US Dollar. Since November, the CAD is up by approximately 3% and the CAD currently trades just below its 200-week moving average at the 0.7312 exchange rate.

Next up, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen four consecutive weekly gains in speculator positions and has now seen higher speculator bets on a weekly basis in 11 out of the past 12 weeks. This week’s gain brought the overall USD Index net positioning to a small bullish position of just +328 contracts. This is the first bullish position since June of 2025, a span of 36 weeks. In the foreign exchange markets this week, the USD Index was higher by almost 1% on the week, but price gains were rejected around the 98.00 resistance level. Since the start of 2025, the DXY is down by approximately 11% and currently, the DXY has overhead resistance at 98.00, while looking lower around the 96.50 level, there has been strong support found.

U.S. Dollar Index Leads Price Gains This Week

The U.S. Dollar Index was the highest riser over the past five days, with a 1.01% increase on the week. The Mexican Peso was marginally higher with a 0.22% increase, followed by the Australian Dollar, which rose by 0.12%.

On the downside, the biggest decline was seen by Bitcoin which fell by -1.58% followed by the Japanese Yen, which dipped by -1.49%. The British Pound Sterling was lower by -1.23% followed by the New Zealand Dollar, which declined by -1.10%, and the Swiss Franc, which fell by -0.94%. The Euro dipped by -0.74% while the Canadian Dollar was lower by -0.40%, and the Brazilian Real saw a modestly lower return by -0.24%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Canadian Dollar (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (95 percent), Bitcoin (87 percent) and the Mexican Peso (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (18 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is the lone currency in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the British Pound (22 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (25 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.2 percent)
EuroFX (95.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (97.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (54.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (18.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (94.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (100.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (91.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (24.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (68.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (68.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (63.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (62.5 percent)
Bitcoin (87.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.2 percent)

Bitcoin & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (50 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (30 percent), the US Dollar Index (11 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-5 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (11.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.7 percent)
EuroFX (4.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-5.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (1.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (3.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (35.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-7.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.2 percent)
Bitcoin (50.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.0	26.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.7	24.1	11.3
– Net Position:	328	694	-1,022
– Gross Longs:	15,416	7,094	1,996
– Gross Shorts:	15,088	6,400	3,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	58.5	18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-10.1	-7.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 174,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 180,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	53.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	78.0	4.7
– Net Position:	174,480	-227,677	53,197
– Gross Longs:	311,549	487,219	96,673
– Gross Shorts:	137,069	714,896	43,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	3.6	86.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-4.0	0.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -16,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	48.2	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.1	32.4	11.8
– Net Position:	-42,404	37,654	4,750
– Gross Longs:	82,015	115,022	32,847
– Gross Shorts:	124,419	77,368	28,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.6	74.9	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	3.3	9.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 32,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	40.0	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	44.6	10.1
– Net Position:	12,955	-16,168	3,213
– Gross Longs:	143,172	141,766	39,166
– Gross Shorts:	130,217	157,934	35,953
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	46.8	45.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.0	-0.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	68.7	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.2	28.4	18.3
– Net Position:	-40,881	38,596	2,285
– Gross Longs:	10,072	65,773	19,844
– Gross Shorts:	50,953	27,177	17,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.1	62.4	88.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	-4.6	14.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	42.9	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	56.8	11.9
– Net Position:	25,826	-30,374	4,548
– Gross Longs:	89,601	93,653	30,479
– Gross Shorts:	63,775	124,027	25,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.9	-28.4	0.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 45,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.0	32.3	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.1	61.2	6.8
– Net Position:	45,931	-73,989	28,058
– Gross Longs:	117,820	82,854	45,601
– Gross Shorts:	71,889	156,843	17,543
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.3	-36.9	12.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -35,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	76.3	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.3	30.1	4.7
– Net Position:	-35,013	33,709	1,304
– Gross Longs:	11,183	55,719	4,750
– Gross Shorts:	46,196	22,010	3,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	72.0	69.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-11.8	28.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.6	39.1	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	78.2	1.2
– Net Position:	84,122	-88,665	4,543
– Gross Longs:	128,197	88,449	7,231
– Gross Shorts:	44,075	177,114	2,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	32.0	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	14.3	1.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.6	27.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	68.2	0.7
– Net Position:	31,643	-36,474	4,831
– Gross Longs:	58,395	24,271	5,456
– Gross Shorts:	26,752	60,745	625
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	8.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	35.2	48.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	6.1	11.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,017 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.1	2.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.1	9.3	4.7
– Net Position:	1,638	-1,707	69
– Gross Longs:	16,593	463	1,163
– Gross Shorts:	14,955	2,170	1,094
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.4	18.6	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	50.3	-52.6	-0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

21 Feb

Speculator Extremes: AUD, CAD, Steel & Palladium lead weekly Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 17th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in tied as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the AUD speculator level is currently at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a gain of 42 percentage points this week while the overall net speculator position was a total of 45,931 net contracts this week with a boost of 12,722 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in also tied in the extreme standings this week. The CAD speculator level is now at a maximum 100 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the strength score was a jump by 30 percentage points this week. The speculator position registered 25,826 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 12,550 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 97 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a gain of 12 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was 11,736 net contracts this week with a small gain of 344 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week as the EUR speculator level resides at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4 percentage points this week with the overall speculator position sitting at 174,480 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,825 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings as the Palladium speculator level also sits at a 95 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a dip by -1 percentage point this week.

The speculator position was 492 net contracts this week with a small edge lower by -21 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

The Most Bearish Speculator Positions of the Week:

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the Sugar speculator level is at a minimum 0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a drop by -19 percentage points this week. The overall speculator position was -253,592 net contracts this week with a decline of -18,191 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cocoa speculator level is close to the bottom at a 1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a slide by -19 percentage points this week while the speculator position totaled -17,618 net contracts this week following a small boost by 1,328 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Natural Gas

The Natural Gas speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week as the Natural Gas speculator level resides at just a 5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a reduction by -14 percentage points this week and the overall speculator position totaled -185,812 net contracts this week after a decrease of -13,947 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 6 percent score of its 3-year range while the six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a decline by -16 percentage points this week.

The speculator position totaled -55,733 net contracts this week with a decrease by -4,407 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Swiss Franc

Next, the Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week with the CHF speculator level residing at a 18 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a small dip by -1 percentage points this week and the speculator position totaled -40,881 net contracts this week following an increase of 1,378 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

21 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Copper Speculator Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,458 contracts) with Silver (1,048 contracts), Steel (344 contracts) and Platinum (263 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-97 contracts) and with Palladium (-21 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Copper Bets rebound after 7 Down Weeks

Highlighting the speculator bets this week was copper, which rebounded with a weekly gain of +13,458 net contracts. Copper had seen lower speculator bets in the preceding seven consecutive weeks, which had dropped the Copper speculator position to the lowest level since October.

This week’s positive rebound shoots the overall net speculator position back up over +59,000 contracts, the most bullish level since December 30th. Overall, Copper speculator positions have been consistently in a bullish standing, dating back to March 5th of 2024, a span of 102 consecutive bullish weeks.

Silver leads Metals Markets Price Performance this week

Silver bounced back this week with a 5.62% gain over the past five days. This was followed by Platinum which rose by 4.94% over that same period.

Gold was higher by 3.82% while Palladium showed a rise of 3.67%, and rounding out the gainers was Copper with a 1.86% increase.

Steel was virtually unchanged on the week with a -0.03% dip.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

On the downside, Gold (36 percent), Platinum (42 percent) and Silver (42 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (36.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.3 percent)
Silver (42.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (41.0 percent)
Copper (88.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (76.0 percent)
Platinum (41.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.2 percent)
Palladium (95.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.3 percent)
Steel (96.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (95.1 percent)

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (12 percent) and Copper (1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-28 percent), Platinum (-14 percent) and Silver (-7 percent) are the leaders of the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-27.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-29.2 percent)
Silver (-7.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-9.5 percent)
Copper (1.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.0 percent)
Platinum (-14.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-14.9 percent)
Palladium (-0.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.2 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (6.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -97 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	21.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	70.0	3.7
– Net Position:	159,915	-196,782	36,867
– Gross Longs:	213,432	88,237	51,821
– Gross Shorts:	53,517	285,019	14,954
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	57.3	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.8	30.2	-22.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 24,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,955 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	27.9	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	60.1	7.7
– Net Position:	24,003	-42,347	18,344
– Gross Longs:	36,626	36,729	28,514
– Gross Shorts:	12,623	79,076	10,170
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	54.3	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	11.6	-22.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 59,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	33.5	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	60.6	3.6
– Net Position:	59,331	-73,886	14,555
– Gross Longs:	89,699	91,573	24,327
– Gross Shorts:	30,368	165,459	9,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.5	6.8	89.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-1.6	2.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,347 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.6	28.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	55.5	4.3
– Net Position:	12,347	-18,536	6,189
– Gross Longs:	28,826	19,913	9,175
– Gross Shorts:	16,479	38,449	2,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	58.6	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	13.8	4.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.1	36.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	45.9	7.8
– Net Position:	492	-1,634	1,142
– Gross Longs:	7,577	6,066	2,447
– Gross Shorts:	7,085	7,700	1,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.2	7.7	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	4.3	-21.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	56.8	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	90.0	0.5
– Net Position:	11,736	-12,085	349
– Gross Longs:	14,362	20,654	537
– Gross Shorts:	2,626	32,739	188
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.9	3.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-11.5	1.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

21 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (55,279 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (53,282 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (16,688 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (6,517 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-272,311 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-64,826 contracts), the Fed Funds (-56,451 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-42,478 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,642 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

10-Year Note Leads Price Returns this week

Leading the price performance over the last five days, the 10-Year Note rose by a modest 0.27% followed by the US Treasury Bond which rose by 0.20%. The 5-Year Bond was marginally higher by 0.17%, and the 2-Year Bond was a tick higher at 0.07%.

The 1-Month SOFR was up a tick by 0.03% while the Fed Funds was virtually unchanged at -0.01%. The 3-Month SOFR was also lower by -0.06%.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

On the downside, the Fed Funds (23 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently while the next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (25 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (23.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (24.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (26.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (39.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (83.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (68.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (83.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (68.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (61.1 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (58.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (22.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (36.4 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (44 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-20 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-55.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-50.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (7.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (4.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (43.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (4.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-11.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (37.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-20.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-13.2 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -231,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -56,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	66.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	56.7	1.5
– Net Position:	-231,181	212,864	18,317
– Gross Longs:	169,495	1,422,169	51,309
– Gross Shorts:	400,676	1,209,305	32,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.1	75.1	86.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-55.6	55.9	-1.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -734,430 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -272,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -462,119 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	58.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	53.4	0.3
– Net Position:	-734,430	732,874	1,556
– Gross Longs:	1,560,490	7,900,000	45,620
– Gross Shorts:	2,294,920	7,167,126	44,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	77.5	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.1	20.1	0.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -95,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -111,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	61.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	54.4	0.0
– Net Position:	-95,055	95,078	-23
– Gross Longs:	275,903	851,086	171
– Gross Shorts:	370,958	756,008	194
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	38.9	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-37.2	-0.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,234,408 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 55,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	75.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	52.0	2.6
– Net Position:	-1,234,408	1,125,715	108,693
– Gross Longs:	707,467	3,577,502	230,853
– Gross Shorts:	1,941,875	2,451,787	122,160
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	76.5	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-10.2	-10.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,157,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -42,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,114,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	80.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	52.8	4.2
– Net Position:	-2,157,242	2,019,604	137,638
– Gross Longs:	541,351	5,943,599	451,754
– Gross Shorts:	2,698,593	3,923,995	314,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.7	75.3	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-6.8	-8.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -877,853 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -64,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -813,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	63.9	6.6
– Net Position:	-877,853	806,961	70,892
– Gross Longs:	500,097	4,461,711	449,456
– Gross Shorts:	1,377,950	3,654,750	378,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.8	74.2	63.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-0.5	-11.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -100,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 53,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	78.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	68.9	13.9
– Net Position:	-100,029	236,624	-136,595
– Gross Longs:	283,246	2,017,361	222,759
– Gross Shorts:	383,275	1,780,737	359,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	37.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.7	-19.9	-68.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	71.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	79.7	6.5
– Net Position:	6,425	-147,788	141,363
– Gross Longs:	207,041	1,315,962	261,044
– Gross Shorts:	200,616	1,463,750	119,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	1.4	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-10.7	16.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -275,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -270,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	82.4	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	71.2	7.8
– Net Position:	-275,188	253,624	21,564
– Gross Longs:	153,460	1,860,075	197,124
– Gross Shorts:	428,648	1,606,451	175,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	39.3	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	10.0	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

21 Feb

COT Energy Charts: WTI Crude Speculator Bets rise to highest level since August

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (23,529 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (80 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Natural Gas (-13,947 contracts), Heating Oil (-4,050 contracts), Gasoline (-1,214 contracts) and with Brent Oil (-185 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

WTI Crude Speculator Bets rise to highest level since August

Leading the energy markets for speculative bets this week was WTI Crude Oil, which rose by over +23,000 contracts on the week. This was the fifth week out of the past six that the WTI net large speculative positions improved.

This recent positive sentiment has pushed the overall net speculative standing above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since September. This week’s speculative position (+141,343 net contracts) is now at the highest standing since August 5th of 2025, a span of 28 weeks.

Heating Oil and Brent Oil lead the Energy Market Price Performances on the Week

Leading the energy markets over the past week was Heating Oil with a 7.55% gain. Brent Crude Oil was not far behind with a 6.27% increase, while WTI Crude Oil also advanced by 5.85%. Gasoline was higher by 4.70% and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rounded out the gainers with a 3.03% uptick on the week.

Natural Gas was the only market over the last five trading periods that was lower with a -3.38% decrease.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & Heating Oil

On the downside, Natural Gas (5.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (29.4 percent) and then WTI Crude (32.7 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (32.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (25.1 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (29.7 percent)
Natural Gas (5.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (15.1 percent)
Gasoline (85.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (86.4 percent)
Heating Oil (63.7 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (55.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (55.0 percent)

WTI Crude & Gasoline top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that WTI Crude (27.1 percent) and Gasoline (20.7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Natural Gas (-14.2 percent) and Brent Oil (-12.0 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-4.6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (27.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (17.2 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-12.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-12.1 percent)
Natural Gas (-14.2 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-11.9 percent)
Gasoline (20.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (18.7 percent)
Heating Oil (-4.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (2.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (13.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (25.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 141,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	41.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	49.7	2.0
– Net Position:	141,343	-181,629	40,286
– Gross Longs:	321,645	855,378	81,123
– Gross Shorts:	180,302	1,037,007	40,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	61.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-33.9	55.5

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.6	41.8	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	28.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-36,267	35,690	577
– Gross Longs:	59,005	113,992	6,755
– Gross Shorts:	95,272	78,302	6,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	73.8	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	15.9	-22.6

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -185,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,947 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -171,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	38.2	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	27.3	2.6
– Net Position:	-185,812	174,798	11,014
– Gross Longs:	205,853	615,910	53,277
– Gross Shorts:	391,665	441,112	42,263
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	95.1	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	14.1	-1.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	46.2	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	68.2	3.2
– Net Position:	88,742	-101,984	13,242
– Gross Longs:	117,261	214,865	28,300
– Gross Shorts:	28,519	316,849	15,058
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.1	9.8	97.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-27.7	50.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	48.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	58.0	7.5
– Net Position:	15,402	-35,615	20,213
– Gross Longs:	63,052	183,343	48,508
– Gross Shorts:	47,650	218,958	28,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.7	32.6	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	-7.6	31.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 80 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,019 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	69.3	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	64.2	0.0
– Net Position:	-10,939	10,174	765
– Gross Longs:	54,901	136,855	790
– Gross Shorts:	65,840	126,681	25
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	31.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	42.9	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-19.1	53.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

21 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (45,457 contracts) with Wheat (16,200 contracts), Corn (10,495 contracts), Soybean Meal (6,974 contracts), Live Cattle (5,979 contracts) and Cocoa (1,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-18,191 contracts), Lean Hogs (-15,873 contracts), Cotton (-4,407 contracts), Soybean Oil (-1,306 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,071 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat leads Price Price Performance Leaders

Price performance leaders were Wheat and Soybean Oil this week. Wheat was the highest riser in the past five days with a 3.89% gain and Soybean Oil was higher by 3.25% in the same period.

Lean Hogs rose by 2.58%, Cotton was higher by 2.35%, and Sugar also got a boost by over 2% on the week. Live Cattle rose by approximately 1% and Soybean Meal saw a gain of 0.62%. Soybeans and Corn were virtually unchanged on the week.

Leading the declines on the week was Cocoa, which dropped sharply by approximately -15% and followed by Coffee which was also lower by -4.87%.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybeans, Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybeans (86 percent), Lean Hogs (74 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Wheat (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cocoa (1 percent) and Cotton (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (35.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.7 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.4 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybeans (86.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (76.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (73.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.2 percent)
Live Cattle (68.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (73.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (85.3 percent)
Cotton (5.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (8.5 percent)
Cocoa (1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.0 percent)
Wheat (55.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (41.6 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (60 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (19 percent), Lean Hogs (18 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-19 percent), Coffee (-18 percent) and Cotton (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-9.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.7 percent)
Sugar (-18.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Coffee (-17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-10.7 percent)
Soybeans (19.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (10.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (18.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-19.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.6 percent)
Wheat (29.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,835 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,495 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	46.7	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	45.3	9.3
– Net Position:	-7,835	25,990	-18,155
– Gross Longs:	336,717	831,608	146,498
– Gross Shorts:	344,552	805,618	164,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	61.1	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	10.3	0.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -253,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -235,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	56.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	32.7	8.6
– Net Position:	-253,592	265,824	-12,232
– Gross Longs:	171,981	625,812	82,477
– Gross Shorts:	425,573	359,988	94,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	16.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	17.6	-7.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	42.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	50.0	5.0
– Net Position:	12,860	-12,616	-244
– Gross Longs:	47,502	65,722	7,517
– Gross Shorts:	34,642	78,338	7,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	66.0	13.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	18.4	-22.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 191,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 45,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	47.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	63.1	8.5
– Net Position:	191,791	-157,771	-34,020
– Gross Longs:	274,388	463,652	49,618
– Gross Shorts:	82,597	621,423	83,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.2	16.5	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-15.4	-54.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	47.0	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	55.8	3.7
– Net Position:	51,971	-62,880	10,909
– Gross Longs:	155,039	335,704	37,409
– Gross Shorts:	103,068	398,584	26,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.8	25.8	72.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	59.6	-62.7	67.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 18,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	53.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	60.7	5.5
– Net Position:	18,346	-36,473	18,127
– Gross Longs:	109,382	283,091	47,273
– Gross Shorts:	91,036	319,564	29,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	61.3	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-14.4	37.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 91,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	31.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	54.7	12.3
– Net Position:	91,735	-78,353	-13,382
– Gross Longs:	150,433	102,308	27,276
– Gross Shorts:	58,698	180,661	40,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	26.8	51.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-11.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.8	32.3	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	47.6	8.3
– Net Position:	67,022	-57,027	-9,995
– Gross Longs:	147,998	119,956	20,920
– Gross Shorts:	80,976	176,983	30,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.9	30.3	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-16.8	-21.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	46.2	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	30.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-55,733	54,389	1,344
– Gross Longs:	99,583	156,452	15,630
– Gross Shorts:	155,316	102,063	14,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.9	92.3	32.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.0	16.3	-19.9

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	48.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	37.2	7.1
– Net Position:	-17,618	17,159	459
– Gross Longs:	29,310	74,716	11,431
– Gross Shorts:	46,928	57,557	10,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	98.6	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	17.9	10.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -55,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	35.5	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	23.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-55,058	58,384	-3,326
– Gross Longs:	122,049	167,707	32,177
– Gross Shorts:	177,107	109,323	35,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	46.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-26.4	-37.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

20 Feb

Probability underlies much of the modern world – an engineering professor explains how it actually works

By Zachary del Rosario, Olin College of Engineering

Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the most important concept in modern science, especially as nobody has the slightest notion what it means.”

I teach statistics to engineers, so I know that while probability is important, it is counterintuitive.

Probability is a branch of mathematics that describes randomness. When scientists describe randomness, they’re describing chance events – like a coin flip – not strange occurrences, like a person dressed as a zebra. While scientists do not have a way to predict strange occurrences, probability does predict long-run behavior – that is, the trends that emerge from many repeated events.

Left: A person in a zebra costume. Right: A coin in mid-air after being flipped. A hand is visible with thumb extended upward. — We may say ‘random’ to describe strange occurrences (person dressed as zebra), but probability describes chance events (a coin flip).
Zebras in La Paz, Bolivia by EEJCC, Own Work CC A-SA 4.0; https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Zebra_La_Paz.jpg _ , CC BY-SA

Modeling with probability

Since probability is about events, a scientist must choose which events to study. This choice defines the sample space. When flipping a coin, for example, you might define your event as the way it lands.

Coins almost always land on heads or tails. However, it’s possible – if very unlikely – for a coin to land on its side. So to create a sample space, you’d have two choices: heads and tails, or heads, tails and side. For now, ignore the side landings and use heads and tails as our sample space.

Next, you would assign probabilities to the events. Probability describes the rate of occurrence of an event and takes values between 0% and 100%. For example, a fair flip will tend to land 50% heads up and 50% tails up.

To assign probabilities, however, you need to think carefully about the scenario. What if the person flipping the coin is a cheater? There’s a sneaky technique to “wobble” the coin without flipping, controlling the outcome. Even if you can prevent cheating, real coin flips are slightly more probable to land on their starting face – so if you start the flip with the coin heads up, it’s very slightly more likely to land heads up.

In both the cheating and real flip cases, you need an appropriate sample space: starting face and other face. To have a fair flip in the real world, you’d need an additional step where you randomly – with equal probability – choose the starting face, then flip the coin.

Three bar graphs displaying probabilities for different outcomes. The 'Fair' Flip assigns equal probability (50%) to both heads and tails. The Real Flip assigns 51% to the Starting Face and 49% to the Other Face. The Cheater's Flip assigns 100% to the Starting Face. — The probabilities for different coin-flipping scenarios.
Zachary del Rosario, CC BY-SA

These assumptions add up quickly. To have a fair flip, you had to ignore side landings, assume no one is cheating, and assume the starting face is evenly random. Together, these assumptions constitute a model for the coin flip with random outcomes. Probability tells us about the long-run behavior of a random model. In the case of the coin model, probability describes how many coins land on heads out of many flips.

But instead of using a random model, why not just solve the coin toss using physics? Actually, scientists have done just that, and the physics shows that slight changes in the speed of the flip determine whether it comes up heads or tails. This sensitivity makes a coin flip unpredictable, so a random model is a good one.

Frequency vs. probability

Probability differs from frequency, which is the rate of events in a sequence. For example, if you flip a coin eight times and get two heads, that’s a frequency of 25%. Even if the probability of flipping a coin and seeing heads is 50% over the long run, each short sequence of flips will come out different. Four heads and four tails is the most probable outcome from eight flips, but other events can – and will – happen.

Frequency and probability are the same in one special setting: when the number of data points goes to infinity. In this sense, probability tells us about long-run behavior.

A bar chart of probabilities for all possible outcomes of eight 'fair' coin flips. Four heads has the highest probability (~27%), and the distribution is symmetric around four heads. — Probabilities for all possible outcomes of eight ‘fair’ coin flips.
Zachary del Rosario, CC BY-SA

Applications to AI, cryptography and statistics

Probability isn’t just useful for predicting coin flips. It underlies many modern technological systems.

For example, AI systems such as large language models, or LLMs, are based on next-word prediction. Essentially, they compute a probability for the words that follow your prompt. For example, with the prompt “New York” you might get “City” or “State” as the predicted next word, because in the training data those are the words that most frequently follow.

But since probability describes randomness, the outputs of a LLM are random. Just like a sequence of coin flips is not guaranteed to come out the same way every time, if you ask an LLM the same question again, you will tend to get a different response. Effectively, each next word is treated like a new coin flip.

Randomness is also key to cryptography: the science of securing information. Cryptographic communication uses a shared secret, such as a password, to secure information. However, surprising randomness isn’t good enough for security, which is why picking a surprising word is a bad choice of password. A shared secret is only secure if it’s hard to guess. Even if a word is surprising, real words are easier to guess than flipping a “coin” for each letter.

You can make a much stronger password by using probability to choose characters at random on your keyboard – or better yet, use a password manager.

Finally, randomness is key in statistics. Statisticians are responsible for designing and analyzing studies to make use of limited data. This practice is especially important when studying medical treatments, because every data point represents a person’s life.

The gold standard is a randomized controlled trial. Participants are assigned to receive the new treatment or the current standard of care based on a fair coin flip. It may seem strange to do this assignment randomly – using coin flips to make decisions about lives. However, the unpredictability serves an important role, as it ensures that nothing about the person affects their chance to get the treatment: not age, gender, race, income or any other factor. The unpredictability helps scientists ensure that only the treatment causes the observed result and not any other factor.

So what does probability mean? Like any kind of math, it’s only a model, meaning it can’t perfectly describe the world. In the examples discussed, probability is useful for describing long-term behaviors and using unpredictability to solve practical problems.

About the Author:

Zachary del Rosario, Assistant Professor of Engineering, Olin College of Engineering

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

20 Feb

Week Ahead: Nvidia finale to wrap up earnings season

By ForexTime

Nvidia shares only ↑1% year-to-date, 10% away from ATH
Hyperscale spending and fiscal Q1 2027 guidance in focus
Shares could move 5.7% ↑ or ↓ post earnings
Analysts remain bullish with 12M target price at $258
Technical levels – $210, $195, 200-day SMA

As the most valuable company in the world, Nvidia’s earnings carry widespread implications.

But the focus for Q4 is unlikely to be about whether results smash forecasts.

It may revolve around management’s ability to convince investors that the AI spending spree is paying off amid growing fears over AI disrupting established business models.

Earnings from this tech titan along with global data may set the tone for March:

Monday, 23rd February

EUR: Germany Ifo Business Climate (Feb); ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
USD: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jan, Dec); US Factory Orders (Dec); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb); Fed Governor Christopher Waller speech

Tuesday, 24th February

EUR: Eurozone New Car Registrations (Jan); France Business Confidence (Feb)
GBP: UK CBI Distributive Trades (Feb)
USD: US ADP Employment Change Weekly; Fed Golsbee Speech; President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union Address
Crude (WTI, Brent): US API Crude Oil Stock Change (w/e Feb 20)
CNY: China loan prime rates

Wednesday, 25th February

AUD: Australia Inflation Rate (Jan)
EUR: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Mar); France Consumer Confidence (Feb)
Crude (WTI, Brent): US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (w/e Feb 20)
Major Earnings: Nvidia (after markets close)

Thursday, 26th February

JPY: BoJ Takada Speech; Japan Industrial Production (Jan); Retail Sales (Jan)
EUR: Eurozone Economic Sentiment (Feb); Spain Business Confidence (Feb)
USD: Initial Jobless Claims (w/e Feb 21)

Friday, 27th February

GBP: UK Gfk Consumer Confidence (Feb)
CHF: Swiss Retail Sales (Jan); GDP Growth Rate (Q4); KOF Leading Indicators (Feb)
EUR: Germany Inflation Rate (Feb); France Inflation Rate (Feb); Germany Unemployment Data (Feb); Spain Inflation Rate (Feb)
CAD: Canada GDP Growth Rate (Q4)
USD: US PPI (Jan)

Nvidia remains among the biggest drivers of the AI rally, with its earnings acting as a litmus test for the health of the entire AI industry.

Interestingly, the Magnificent 7 index is down 6% YTD despite tech titans posting positive earnings. This could be due to concerns about AI capex spending, stretched valuations and lofty expectations.

Even if Nvidia delivers exceptional results, investors need to be convinced that all the AI spending will pay off down the road.

When will earnings be published

Nvidia releases its Q4 Fiscal Year 2026 earnings after US markets close on Wednesday 25th February.

Market expectations

The tech giant is forecast to post earnings per share of $1.53 compared to $0.89 a year ago – representing a 72% jump.

Quarterly revenues are expected to rise $65.9 billion from $39.3 billion in the prior year – representing a 67% increase.

As highlighted earlier, there is little room for error with exceptional results needed to justify its whopping $4.6 trillion valuation.

What to watch

Blackwell Ramp: Updates on the new architecture and supply constraints
Guidance: Q1 2027 outlook is critical. Street expects $71.6B in revenue
Margins: Rising memory costs could pressure profitability

How will Nvidia shares react to earnings

Markets are forecasting a 5.7% move, either Up or Down, for Nvidia stocks on Thursday post earnings.

This is equivalent to a move of roughly $260 billion, bigger than the entire market cap of many large companies in the S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

How will wider markets be influenced?

Over the past 12 months, the Nasdaq 100 has shown an 83% positive correlation with Nvidia shares.

But more interestingly, over a rolling 5-day period over the past 2 years:

US500: +60%
UK100: +56%
Meta Platforms: +87%
Apple: +80%
Amazon: +84%
Broadcom: +82%
ASML holdings: +60%

Analyst forecasts

According to Bloomberg consensus, over 90% of analysts are bullish on Nvidia with the 12 month price target at $257.76 – roughly 25% away from current prices.

Technical forces

Prices may continue to consolidate within a range until the earnings are published.

A solid breakout above $195 may open a path toward $210 and potentially higher.
Weakness below the 100-day SMA could trigger a decline back toward the 200-day SMA and $170.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News

20 Feb

Oil prices continue to rise amid escalating geopolitical tensions

By JustMarkets

On Thursday, trading on the US stock market concluded with a decline. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones index (US30) fell by 0.54%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.28%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.41%. The catalyst for profit-taking was the FOMC minutes, which pointed to the risk of prolonged deflation and the permissibility of additional policy tightening, heightening investor caution. Against this backdrop, long-term government bond yields rose. Rising commodity prices supported the energy sector, while banking stocks came under pressure.

European markets ended the day with a drop. Germany’s DAX (DE40) declined by 0.93%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.36%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.99%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed at negative 0.55%. Within the European region, investor sentiment is dictated by potential reshuffles in the financial leadership. Reports of a likely early resignation of Christine Lagarde as head of the ECB, as well as the resignation of Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau in June 2026, are creating a backdrop of political uncertainty. Despite the personnel rumors, a stable inflation level in the Eurozone suggests that the regulator will keep current monetary policy parameters unchanged until the end of this year.

WTI oil quotes closed in on the $66.5 per barrel mark, hitting half-year highs amid a sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions. The primary driver of growth is the risk of a large-scale military conflict between the US and Iran, fueled by statements regarding a potential forceful operation and Israel’s demands for a change in Tehran’s political course. The situation is exacerbated by a narrowing diplomatic space for maneuver and the potential threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key artery for one-third of the world’s maritime hydrocarbon exports. In parallel with foreign policy factors, price support came from unexpected data from the US Department of Energy, which recorded a rapid drop in domestic crude reserves by 9 million barrels. This significant decline in inventories during the second week of February completely refuted conservative analyst prognoses that had expected a moderate market surplus.

Natural gas prices (XNG) in the US stabilized around $3.0 per MMBtu, holding near four-month lows amid a noticeable weakening of the market balance. A key downward factor is the active recovery of production in the Lower 48 states, which in February approached historic highs, reaching 108.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d). Despite continued LNG exports at record levels, total supply confidently covers current system requirements, neutralizing concerns regarding resource shortages. EIA data confirms that the rate of inventory decline is trailing both last year’s figures and the five-year averages. Although the current volume of reserves remains 6% below the norm, experts expect this gap to be fully eliminated by the beginning of March. The combination of excess production and expected warming deprives quotes of growth incentives, consolidating the downward trend in the gas segment.

Asian markets traded mostly higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.57%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade due to Lunar New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) also did not trade, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) showed a positive result of 0.88%.
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) showed a notable weakness, settling at a four-week low near the $0.595 level. Pressure on the currency was exerted by the rhetoric of the new head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Anna Breman, who, after maintaining the base rate at 2.25%, signaled no rush to tighten monetary conditions. Although inflation at the end of 2025 slightly exceeded the target range, reaching 3.1%, the regulator expressed confidence in its return to the 2% target within the year without aggressive intervention. A revision of investor expectations led to a sharp drop in the probability of a rate hike in the coming months: the chances of an increase in September plunged from 68% to 40%.

Bank Indonesia (BI) in February 2026 maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.75%, which was fully in line with analyst projections. This decision by the regulator was dictated by the need to stabilize the national currency, which is under pressure near historic lows due to risks of sovereign rating downgrades by Moody’s and MSCI. Against a backdrop of global financial volatility, the central bank aims to keep inflation within the target corridor and ensure the sustainability of economic growth.

S&P 500 (US500) 66,861.89 −19.42 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 49,395.16 −267.50 (−0.54%)

DAX (DE40) 25,043.57 −234.64 (−0.93%)

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USD Index 97.84 +0.14% (+0.14%)

News feed for: 2026.02.20

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2); – AUD (MED)
Japan Inflation Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (HIGH)
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2); – JPY (MED)
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2); – EUR (MED)
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2); – GBP (MED)
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – CAD (MED)
US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
US GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2); – USD (HIGH)
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2); – USD (MED)
US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2). – USD (LOW)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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