InvestMacro

COT Metals Charts: Steel Speculator Bets continue to rise to New Record High

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (8,458 contracts) with Silver (2,792 contracts) and Steel (595 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-10,507 contracts), Palladium (-1,057 contracts) and with Platinum (-700 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Steel Speculator Positions continue to rise to New Record High

Highlighting the weekly speculator positions was the Steel speculator position which rose this week for a third consecutive week. The Steel position has been rising consistently higher over the past months with gains in 13 out of the past 17 weeks. The Steel speculator position is currently at an all-time high record at 14,462 contracts, according to the CFTC data — although it is a limited dataset going back only to 2020. This market traditionally has held negative speculative positions, but since September, the overall net position has been bullish with 12 out of the last 13 weeks seeing bullish positions above +10,000 net contracts. The open interest levels for Steel are also at all-time record highs, showing there are more open positions and interest in the market than has been seen going back to data beginning in 2020.

Copper and Silver lead Metals markets price performance this week.

The major Metals markets this week were led by Copper, which rose by 3.40% over the past five days. Silver was next with a gain of 3.09%. Steel rose by 0.50% on the week while Gold rounded out the gainers with a 0.32% rise. Palladium fell by -1.92% on the week, while Platinum was the biggest loser on the week with a decline of -3.36%.

Over the past 30 days, the high-flying Metals markets have come back to Earth with Steel being the only Metals market that has seen a gain over the past 30 days with a 4.94% rise. Palladium has fallen by -18.31% over the past 30 days, while Platinum has dipped by -9.57%. Gold is down by -8.13%, with Silver lower by -6.36%, and Copper has fallen by -5.80% in these past 30 days.

However, over the past 90 days, all of the Metals markets still have positive returns except for Palladium, which has fallen by just -0.45%.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Palladium

On the downside, Silver (28 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (39.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.3 percent)
Silver (28.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (23.6 percent)
Copper (68.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (78.0 percent)
Platinum (51.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (53.3 percent)
Palladium (83.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.7 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (97.2 percent)

Steel & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (14 percent) and Platinum (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-8 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-2.4 percent)
Silver (2.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.7 percent)
Copper (-7.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.2 percent)
Platinum (10.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (9.5 percent)
Palladium (-11.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-8.7 percent)
Steel (14.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 168,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	19.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	69.5	3.4
– Net Position:	168,327	-203,828	35,501
– Gross Longs:	220,861	76,997	49,273
– Gross Shorts:	52,534	280,825	13,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	54.5	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.4	-6.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	26.1	21.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.7	7.9
– Net Position:	24,673	-40,288	15,615
– Gross Longs:	33,938	29,511	24,555
– Gross Shorts:	9,265	69,799	8,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	72.8	38.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	3.0	-19.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,507 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	41.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	61.8	4.7
– Net Position:	37,537	-46,288	8,751
– Gross Longs:	68,491	90,872	19,196
– Gross Shorts:	30,954	137,160	10,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	30.5	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	12.5	-31.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,898 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	31.1	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	66.4	5.0
– Net Position:	16,198	-21,749	5,551
– Gross Longs:	26,146	19,093	8,601
– Gross Shorts:	9,948	40,842	3,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	50.4	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-7.6	-13.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.9	36.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	36.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-1,242	-15	1,257
– Gross Longs:	6,468	5,488	2,389
– Gross Shorts:	7,710	5,503	1,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	17.6	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	10.3	2.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	58.1	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.1	94.1	0.6
– Net Position:	14,462	-14,946	484
– Gross Longs:	15,769	24,143	736
– Gross Shorts:	1,307	39,089	252
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-14.0	-1.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

29 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets boosted by record week for 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (325,016 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (134,015 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (58,570 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27,241 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-155,512 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-44,009 contracts), the Fed Funds (-8,643 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-8,050 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-2,194 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators slash their bearish 5-Year Bond bets by most on record

The 5-Year Bond this week highlights the weekly speculator changes for the Bonds markets. The 5-Year Bonds speculator positions rose this week by 325,016 weekly net contracts and have now risen for three consecutive weeks. The 5-Year Bond speculator bets have been improving and have been positive in 9 out of the past 12 weeks with a gain of +954,361 net contracts over these past 12 weeks. This week’s rise by 325,016 weekly net contracts represents the highest 1-week change on record for speculator bets, according to CFTC data going back to the late 1980s.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions, like most of the other major Bond positions, have been consistently bearish in recent years (the last time there has been multiple weeks of bullish positions for the 5-Year was in 2021). The 5-Year Bond hit an all-time low in speculator positions in September at a position of -2,463,971 net contracts. However, since that all-time low position, there has been an improvement in the 5-Year Bond speculator position, and this week the overall position comes in at -1,448,436 net contracts.

Bond market price performance was mostly unchanged on the week

The Bonds markets were modestly changed over the past five days, with the Two-Year Bond seeing a slight uptick by 0.10%, while the One-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) was just a tick higher by 0.02%, and the Three-Month SOFR was higher by even less at an increase of 0.01%. The Fed Funds was relatively unchanged. The Five-Year Bond was slightly lower by -0.10%, while the Treasury Bonds were lower by -0.22%, and the Ten-Year Note was down by -0.30% on the week.

Bonds Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (66 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The 5-Year Bonds (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the SOFR 3-Months (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (51.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (64.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (47.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (60.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (65.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (62.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (54.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (85.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (86.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (66.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.5 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (54.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (44.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (37.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (30.1 percent)

5-Year, 10-Year Bonds & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (35 percent), 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the Fed Funds (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 2-Year Bond (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (20.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-30.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-11.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (34.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (20.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (2.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-3.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-3.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (1.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.7 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	63.1	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	62.3	1.9
– Net Position:	-32,042	17,698	14,344
– Gross Longs:	350,243	1,397,663	57,058
– Gross Shorts:	382,285	1,379,965	42,714
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	47.4	75.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.7	-6.6

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -425,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 134,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -559,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	57.4	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	53.9	0.1
– Net Position:	-425,910	424,393	1,517
– Gross Longs:	1,864,974	6,971,504	19,178
– Gross Shorts:	2,290,884	6,547,111	17,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	63.1	42.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-1.9	0.6

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 58,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -189,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	58.8	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	50.3	1.2
– Net Position:	-130,667	130,758	-91
– Gross Longs:	327,967	909,195	18,922
– Gross Shorts:	458,634	778,437	19,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.1	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	3.3	-0.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,638,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -155,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,482,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	80.2	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.3	47.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,638,179	1,555,767	82,412
– Gross Longs:	572,897	3,825,356	213,847
– Gross Shorts:	2,211,076	2,269,589	131,435
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.5	34.5	-13.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,448,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 325,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,773,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	79.8	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	58.4	5.5
– Net Position:	-1,448,436	1,409,435	39,001
– Gross Longs:	722,744	5,244,682	401,263
– Gross Shorts:	2,171,180	3,835,247	362,262
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.0	39.1	14.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.6	-30.8	-48.2

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -641,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -44,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -597,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	74.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	63.2	7.0
– Net Position:	-641,887	600,134	41,753
– Gross Longs:	755,844	3,863,211	404,699
– Gross Shorts:	1,397,731	3,263,077	362,946
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	45.1	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-17.9	-21.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -178,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 27,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -205,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	81.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	70.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-178,553	270,472	-91,919
– Gross Longs:	208,377	1,917,811	207,204
– Gross Shorts:	386,930	1,647,339	299,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.0	46.7	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	-4.9	34.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 6,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	72.7	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	78.1	7.8
– Net Position:	6,570	-97,538	90,968
– Gross Longs:	236,195	1,302,472	231,398
– Gross Shorts:	229,625	1,400,010	140,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.7	21.1	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	6.1	-21.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -279,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -271,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	84.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	73.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-279,187	257,620	21,567
– Gross Longs:	131,831	1,881,002	197,970
– Gross Shorts:	411,018	1,623,382	176,403
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.5	40.8	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	-4.9	22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

29 Mar

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI, Natural Gas & Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI, Natural Gas & Brent Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (14,932 contracts) with Natural Gas (5,422 contracts), Brent Oil (5,002 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (882 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gasoline (-6,749 contracts) and with Heating Oil (-5,864 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

WTI Highlights Speculator Bets this week

WTI Crude Oil highlights the speculator bets this week with an increase of 14,932 net positions through Tuesday. The WTI Crude Oil speculator bets have been higher in 8 out of the past 11 weeks and have risen by +176,268 net contracts over that time-frame. The March 10th week saw a sharp increase with a weekly jump by +55,865 net positions. This week’s total net position for WTI Crude Oil is at +233,620 net contracts, which marks the highest position in 38 weeks, dating back to July 1, 2025 as the last time contracts have been higher than this week.

WTI Crude Leads Price Performance

Leading the Energy markets this week in price performance was WTI Crude Oil, which rose by 2.28% on the week. This was followed by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which was up by 0.82%, and Heating Oil, which saw a 0.43% increase over the last five days. On the downside, the biggest loser on the week was Gasoline, which fell by -1.52%, followed by Natural Gas, which was down by -0.89%. Finally, Brent Oil slipped this week by -0.42%.

Over the past 30 days, the Energy markets have been exploding higher due to the Iran war. Heating Oil is up by 86% over the past 30 days. Brent Crude Oil is higher by 65% in that time-frame while WTI Crude Oil is up by 62%. Gasoline is higher by 51% over that period and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is higher by 17.39%.

Natural Gas is the outlier and has been lower by -1.21% over the past 30 days.

Energy Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gasoline & WTI Crude

On the downside, Natural Gas (21.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (62.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (57.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (56.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (49.0 percent)
Natural Gas (21.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (18.2 percent)
Gasoline (64.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (71.7 percent)
Heating Oil (56.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (63.8 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (51.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.5 percent)

WTI Crude & Brent Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that WTI Crude (37.3 percent) and Brent Oil (26.4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the energy markets.

Gasoline (-22.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Heating Oil (-13.0 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (37.3 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (30.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (26.4 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (16.5 percent)
Natural Gas (-0.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-3.7 percent)
Gasoline (-22.2 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (0.2 percent)
Heating Oil (-13.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-13.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-25.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 233,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,688 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	42.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	55.4	2.2
– Net Position:	233,620	-267,010	33,390
– Gross Longs:	376,150	841,200	76,513
– Gross Shorts:	142,530	1,108,210	43,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	35.2	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.3	-34.0	-9.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,002 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	42.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.8	37.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-17,555	15,373	2,182
– Gross Longs:	86,045	134,198	11,152
– Gross Shorts:	103,600	118,825	8,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	42.7	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-30.1	12.5

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -172,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	37.4	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	27.2	2.5
– Net Position:	-172,607	152,748	19,859
– Gross Longs:	210,159	562,540	56,760
– Gross Shorts:	382,766	409,792	36,901
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	79.1	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-4.4	18.8

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 69,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	50.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	73.5	3.5
– Net Position:	69,846	-83,418	13,572
– Gross Longs:	92,274	177,748	26,021
– Gross Shorts:	22,428	261,166	12,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.3	28.4	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	20.3	-0.6

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 9,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	52.8	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	64.4	9.4
– Net Position:	9,567	-29,596	20,029
– Gross Longs:	37,342	134,964	43,977
– Gross Shorts:	27,775	164,560	23,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	38.4	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	8.8	1.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	69.2	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	63.5	0.0
– Net Position:	-11,732	11,283	449
– Gross Longs:	60,948	138,240	486
– Gross Shorts:	72,680	126,957	37
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	48.2	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	5.0	-24.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

29 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Sugar and Corn continue to see strong Speculator Bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was a gigantic jump for Sugar (111,951 contracts) with Corn (63,018 contracts), Soybean Meal (24,533 contracts), Wheat (8,580 contracts), Coffee (6,830 contracts), Cotton (6,042 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,985 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Lean Hogs (-14,913 contracts), Soybeans (-5,856 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,962 contracts) and with Cocoa (-2,257 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Sugar and Corn continue to see strong Speculator Bets

Highlighting the Soft Commodities speculator positional changes this week was Sugar, which saw a substantial influx of positive speculator positions. The net speculator position rose by 111,951 net contracts this week, marking the highest one-week amount in history for Sugar positions. Sugar has now seen speculator bets rise for five consecutive weeks, taking the overall net position from a level of -253,592 net contracts on February 17th to this week’s total of -95,804 net contracts. Overall, Sugar speculator bets have been in a bearish position since May of 2025 but this week’s level is the least bearish position since September.

Corn also saw a jump in speculator positions and rose by 63,000 contracts this week. The Corn speculator position has now risen for seven consecutive weeks, and over that time frame, the net position has improved by a huge 410,058 net contracts. This has taken the total spec position from a negative standing of -18,333 contracts on February 10th to a strong bullish position this week of 375,360 net contracts.

Soybean Oil and Cotton led Soft Commodities price performance.

The Soft Commodities price performance this week was led by Soybean Oil, which rose by almost 5% on the week with a 4.86% gain. Next up was Cotton, which rose by just over 3.5% with a 3.56% increase. Live Cattle was up by 2.3%. Sugar rose by 1.63% and was followed by Wheat with a 1.40% gain and Lean Hogs with 1.31% increase on the week. Rounding out the gainers was Soybeans with a 0.46% uptick.

On the downside, Soybean Meal was the biggest loser on the week with a -2.80% decline, followed by Cocoa, which dipped by -2.50%, and Coffee, which fell by -2.15%. Corn was a little bit lower this week with a -1.17% decrease over the last five-day period.

Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Soybean Oil & Soybean Meal

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Oil (98 percent) and Soybean Meal (95 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybeans (91 percent), Wheat (90 percent) and Corn (87 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cocoa (1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (30 percent) and Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (87.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (78.7 percent)
Sugar (29.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.6 percent)
Coffee (48.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (41.8 percent)
Soybeans (91.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (92.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (98.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (94.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (54.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (60.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (71.1 percent)
Cotton (52.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (48.7 percent)
Cocoa (0.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (2.7 percent)
Wheat (89.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (82.0 percent)

Corn & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (54 percent) and Soybean Meal (51 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (48 percent), Cotton (44 percent) and Soybean Oil (33 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-4 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (53.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (47.2 percent)
Sugar (26.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.5 percent)
Coffee (11.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.2 percent)
Soybeans (15.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (32.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (51.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (44.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-3.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-13.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.7 percent)
Cotton (43.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (35.1 percent)
Cocoa (-1.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.1 percent)
Wheat (48.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 375,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 63,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 312,342 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.6	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	58.1	11.0
– Net Position:	375,360	-314,222	-61,138
– Gross Longs:	505,346	729,492	137,322
– Gross Shorts:	129,986	1,043,714	198,460
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	9.6	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.6	-53.3	-49.1

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -95,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 111,951 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	51.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	43.1	7.6
– Net Position:	-95,804	76,329	19,475
– Gross Longs:	205,205	482,040	90,528
– Gross Shorts:	301,009	405,711	71,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.6	68.5	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-30.3	51.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	37.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.6	5.0
– Net Position:	25,424	-26,309	885
– Gross Longs:	53,346	65,731	9,573
– Gross Shorts:	27,922	92,040	8,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	52.7	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-11.6	8.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 215,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 221,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	46.1	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	65.1	8.7
– Net Position:	215,210	-182,268	-32,942
– Gross Longs:	282,458	441,990	50,876
– Gross Shorts:	67,248	624,258	83,818
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.4	10.9	8.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-14.5	-17.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 117,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	46.9	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	64.6	3.5
– Net Position:	117,135	-130,555	13,420
– Gross Longs:	172,116	346,316	38,917
– Gross Shorts:	54,981	476,871	25,497
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.5	2.3	85.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.6	-32.1	18.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 127,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 24,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	43.1	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	69.2	4.3
– Net Position:	127,071	-150,757	23,686
– Gross Longs:	177,113	248,242	48,314
– Gross Shorts:	50,042	398,999	24,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	2.3	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	51.3	-56.6	48.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 82,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	31.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	51.8	12.8
– Net Position:	82,147	-69,198	-12,949
– Gross Longs:	136,153	104,088	29,818
– Gross Shorts:	54,006	173,286	42,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	37.9	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	5.1	-2.0

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,913 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,058 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	33.9	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	45.8	8.5
– Net Position:	48,145	-40,130	-8,015
– Gross Longs:	127,801	114,534	20,532
– Gross Shorts:	79,656	154,664	28,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	43.2	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.9	26.0	4.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,042 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	38.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	47.3	3.6
– Net Position:	22,267	-28,974	6,707
– Gross Longs:	120,118	126,034	18,361
– Gross Shorts:	97,851	155,008	11,654
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.3	46.3	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	43.8	-43.6	40.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -20,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	49.7	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	39.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-20,116	19,816	300
– Gross Longs:	43,450	96,660	9,942
– Gross Shorts:	63,566	76,844	9,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	100.0	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	2.0	-10.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,088 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	34.5	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	31.1	6.5
– Net Position:	-17,088	16,349	739
– Gross Longs:	137,228	167,283	32,319
– Gross Shorts:	154,316	150,934	31,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	4.4	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.1	-55.2	8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

27 Mar

Week Ahead: Iran risk – hold longer with Gold Futures/Index

By ForexTime

Iran war keeps world on edge
Prediction markets put odds of a ceasefire by end of April ↓ 50%
New launched gold index/futures offset CFD risk
Geopolitics + NFP = fresh volatility
Technical levels – $4600 and $4300

Market sentiment remains fragile as the Iran war keeps the world on edge.

Mixed signals, ongoing conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have sparked extreme levels of volatility. Washington talks up peace deals, but Tehran rejects repeatedly.

Prediction markets are putting the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by end-April below 50%.

Given the growing uncertainty, this could spell more volatility in the week ahead already packed with high-impact data:

Monday, 30th March

JPY: Retail Sales (Feb)
EUR: Eurozone Economic Confidence
GER40: German Inflation Rate (March)
GOLDInd: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, New York Fed President John Williams speech

Tuesday, 31st March

CNH: China manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI
AUD: RBA Meeting Minutes
EUR: Inflation Rates Flash (March)
JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales
GOLDInd: US Conference Board consumer confidence

Wednesday, 1st April

CNH: RatingDog Manufacturing PMI (March)
CAD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (March)
OIL: EIA Crude Oil Stocks
GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
GOLDJ6: US Retail Sales, ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing PMI

Thursday, 2nd April

CHF: Switzerland CPI
GOLDInd: Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, 3rd April

CNY: RatingDog Services PMI
GOLDInd: US NFP (March), ISM Service PMI

Last week, gold saw its biggest weekly loss since 1983 despite the deepening conflict.

The culprits were a broadly stronger dollar and fears around conflict-induced inflation resulting in higher US interest rates.

Considering how volatility may remain a key theme, FXTM’s newly launched Gold Index and Futures may be ideal for offsetting spot CFD risk.

FXTM’s GOLDJ6 future

FXTM’s GOLDJ6 is 100% pegged to CME Group Futures price for absolute price clarity, charging traders zero swap when holding overnight positions.

This asset is a gift for active and long-term traders who want full price transparency without financing drag of holding positions over extended periods.

FXTM’s GOLDInd

FXTM’s GOLDInd tracks the spot/future price with fixed swap and spreads.

This asset is ideal for traders who want to hold the position over an extended period at a fixed cost, avoiding surprise overnight charges or widening spreads sparked by volatility.

With all the above said, here are 3 key factors that may influence Gold Futures & Indices.

1) Ongoing Iran conflict

In the latest twist to the Iran war, Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the US by 10 days.

This development comes after Iran rejected the US ceasefire proposal and responded with its own negotiation plans.

It’s still unclear who the US is engaging in talks with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed amid the ongoing conflict.

If the conflict deepens with both sides attacking key energy infrastructure, gold futures/index may dip as surging oil prices fuel inflation fears.
Any signs of easing tensions and re-opening of the Straight of Hormuz to the US may weaken gold as inflation concerns cool.

2) US March NFP

The March US jobs report on Friday 3rd April will act as a key gauge over the health of the labour markets.

Here’s what economists predict for this closely-watched jobs report:

Headline NFP figure: 51,000 (new jobs added to US labour market)

If so, this would be a sharp rebound from February’s -92,000 headline NFP figure.

Unemployment rate: 4.4%

If so, this would match February’s unemployment rate

Average hourly earnings month-on-month (March 2026 vs. Feb 2026): 0.3%

If so, this would be lower than February’s figure.

Note: Other key data in the week including the retail sales, ADP and ISM Manufacturing figures may offer key insight into the health of the US economy.

A stronger-than-expected US jobs data may boost bets around the Fed hiking rates.
A weaker-than-expected figure could cool bets around Fed hikes.

Note: Traders are currently pricing a 22% chance that the Fed will hike rates by June 2026.

3) Technical forces

Prices remain in a bearish channel on the daily charts but have been consolidating over the past few days. Fundamentals point so further downside but technicals suggest that prices are heavily oversold.

Should $4300 prove reliable support, prices may rebound back toward $4600 and higher.
Weakness below $4300 could take prices toward $4100.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Mar

The Bank of Mexico unexpectedly cut the interest rate. The US natural gas prices rose to 3 dollars per MMBtu

By JustMarkets

Yesterday, US stock markets were hit by a wave of sell‑offs, completely erasing the previous day’s optimism. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.01%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.74%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 2.38%. Donald Trump effectively disavowed reports of a peace agreement being prepared, stating during a cabinet meeting that the United States does not intend to make concessions to Tehran. This decision, combined with the resumption of US strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, brought back fears of a prolonged war and stagflation. Rising US Treasury yields across the curve triggered a massive investor exodus from the high‑tech and artificial‑intelligence sectors.

On Thursday, the CAD reached its lowest level in the past two months. Despite WTI oil prices holding above 92 dollars per barrel due to the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the commodity linkage of the Canadian currency could not offset the powerful rally of the US dollar. Investors are disappointed by the failure of diplomatic efforts.

The MXN weakened to 17.92 per US dollar, reaching its lowest level since the beginning of the month. The main blow to the currency came from the unexpected decision of the Bank of Mexico to resume the easing cycle: the regulator cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%. The decision split the board (votes were 3 to 2) and drew criticism from experts, as it was made amid a sharp acceleration of inflation, which jumped to 4.63% in mid‑March (compared to 4.02% in February).

On Thursday, European indices declined. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.98%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 1.22% lower.

The Swiss franc weakened to 0.794 per US dollar, marking its lowest level since January. Despite its traditional status as a “safe haven,” the franc lost ground to the US dollar, which became the main beneficiary of the new wave of market fear. Additional pressure on the franc came from a “verbal intervention” by the SNB. Chairman Martin Schlegel confirmed that the bank is ready to actively sell francs on the market to prevent excessive strengthening, which harms Swiss exporters.

The US natural gas prices rose to 2.99 dollars per MMBtu, approaching the psychological level of 3 dollars. The driver of the increase was the weekly report from the EIA, which recorded a deeper‑than‑expected drawdown in inventories: 54 billion cubic feet were withdrawn from storage versus the expectation of a 44‑billion draw. This figure sharply contrasts with last year, when 33 billion cubic feet were injected during the same period, and with the five‑year average draw of 21 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets also rose mostly yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.27%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.34%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.89%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a negative result of 0.10%.
The Australian dollar on Friday showed negative dynamics, falling to a two‑month low of around 0.687 US dollars amid growing anxiety over a prolonged energy crisis. At the same time, the rapid rise in fuel prices is creating serious risks for the domestic economy, provoking increased inflationary pressure and forcing households to cut spending. Analysts suggest that if high energy prices persist, the consumer price index could jump to 5% as early as the second quarter of this year.

Offshore yuan quotes (CNY) stabilized around 6.91 per US dollar, holding near their lowest levels in the past three weeks due to persistent investor pessimism caused by contradictory signals from the Middle East. However, the rapid decline of the Chinese currency was limited by the release of encouraging domestic statistics. China’s industrial sector showed an impressive surge at the start of 2026, with total corporate profits for the first two months rising more than 15% year‑on‑year, exceeding one trillion yuan. This dynamic indicates a strong economic recovery after last year’s stagnation.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,477.16 −114.74 (−1.74%)

Dow Jones (US30) 45,960.11 −469.38 (−1.01%)

DAX (DE40) 22,612.97 −344.11 (−1.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 9,972.17 −134.67 (−1.33%)

USD Index 99.93 +0.33% (+0.33%)

News feed for: 2026.03.27

UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – GBP (MED)
Mexico Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2) – MXN (MED)
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2) – USD (MED)

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

27 Mar

Two verdicts in two days: How American courts are rewriting the rules for Big Tech and children

By Carolina Rossini, UMass Amherst Within 48 hours, the legal landscape governing social media and children shifted in ways that will take years to fully understand and verify.

On March 24, 2026, a Santa Fe jury ordered Meta to pay US$375 million for violating New Mexico’s consumer protection laws. The next day, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google’s YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms, awarding almost $6 million in damages to a single plaintiff.

The dollar figures are drawing headlines, but a $375 million penalty against a company worth $1.5 trillion is a rounding error. The award is less than 2% of Meta’s $22.8 billion net income in 2025. Meta’s stock rose 5% on the day of the New Mexico verdict, indicating how the market assessed the effect of the penalty on the company.

Fines without structural change are more akin to licensing fees than accountability. As a technology policy and law scholar, I believe the question of whether these verdicts will produce real changes to the products that millions of children use every day is more consequential than the jury awards.

The answer is not yet, and not automatically. A financial penalty does not rewrite a single line of code, remove an algorithm or place a safety engineer in a role that was eliminated to protect a quarterly earnings report. Meta and Google have signaled they will appeal, with First Amendment challenges to the product-design theory the likely central battleground.

The companies’ lawyers are likely to argue, with some justification, that the science linking the design of platforms to mental health harm remains contested, and that the companies have already implemented safety measures. In the meantime, Instagram, Facebook anf YouTube will continue to operate exactly as they did before the verdicts.

The verdicts against Meta pave the way for hundreds or even thousands of similar cases.

Consumer protection

Most coverage framing the New Mexico verdict casts it as a child safety case. It is that, but it also presents a more technically significant dimension: a consumer protection claim grounded in allegations of corporate deception. New Mexico Attorney General Raúl Torrez did not sue Meta for what users posted, but instead sued Meta for its false statements about its own platform safety, employing a novel legal approach.

For three decades, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act has shielded internet platforms from liability for content generated by their users. Courts have interpreted Section 230 immunity broadly, and many earlier attempts to hold platforms accountable for child harm have foundered on it.

The New Mexico complaint, filed in December 2023, was drafted with explicit awareness of this obstacle. It asked a single question: Did Meta knowingly lie to New Mexico consumers about the safety of its products?

The jury’s answer was yes, on all counts, and its verdict rested on three distinct legal theories under New Mexico’s Unfair Practices Act.

The first was straightforward deception: Meta’s public statements, ranging from CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s congressional testimony claiming research about the platform’s addictiveness was inconclusive to parental guidance materials that omitted known risks of grooming and sexual exploitation, qualify as representations made in connection with a commercial transaction.

Users pay for Meta’s platforms not with money but with their data, which Meta then converts into advertising revenue. New Mexico successfully argued that this data-for-services exchange constitutes commerce under the state’s consumer protection statute, and that misrepresentations made within it are actionable regardless of Section 230.

The second theory was unfair practice, or conduct offensive to public policy, even if not technically deceptive. Here, the evidence centered on what Meta’s own engineers and executives knew and then ignored.

Internal documents showed repeated warnings. These alarm bells centered around child sexual abuse material proliferating on the platforms, about algorithms that amplified harmful content because it generated engagement, and about age verification systems that were essentially cosmetic. The company overrode those warnings for commercial reasons.

The jury was shown a specific sequence: Meta executives requested staffing to address platform harms, Zuckerberg declined, and the company continued to publicly represent its safety efforts as adequate.

The third theory was unconscionability: taking advantage of consumers who lacked the capacity to protect themselves. Children are the clearest possible case. Children cannot evaluate terms of service, cannot negotiate platform architecture, and cannot assess the neurological implications of engagement-maximizing design. Meta had comprehensive internal research documenting these vulnerabilities and chose to ignore rather than mitigate them.

Bellwether on addictiveness

The Los Angeles case, which concluded on March 25, tested a different theory. It was a personal injury trial rather than a government enforcement action.

The plaintiff, identified in court as KGM, is a 20-year-old woman who began using YouTube at age 6 and Instagram at age 9. Her lawyers argued that the platforms’ deliberate design choices such as infinite scroll, autoplay video and engagement-based recommendation algorithms were the causes of her addiction, depression and self-harm.

The jury found both Meta and YouTube negligent in the design of their platforms and found that each company’s negligence was a substantial factor in causing harm to KGM. Meta bears 70% of the liability; YouTube 30%. The individual $3 million compensatory award is modest. The punitive damages phase, still to come, will be calculated against each company’s net worth and is likely to produce a very different number.

Beyond the general precedent, this case matters because it is a bellwether. It was selected from a consolidated group of hundreds of similar lawsuits to test whether a product-design theory of liability could survive a jury trial, and it did. That finding has immediate and concrete implications: Each of those plaintiffs now litigates on a stronger footing, and if the damages awarded to KGM are even partially scaled across similar cases, the total financial exposure for Meta and YouTube moves from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars.

More importantly, the bellwether verdict signals to every other plaintiff, attorney and state attorney general that this legal pathway is viable, and to every platform that the courtroom is no longer a safe harbor. The legal strategy established that negligence claims against platform design are viable in California courts.

Public nuisance

Beginning May 4, 2026, Judge Bryan Biedscheid in the New Mexico case is scheduled to hear the public nuisance count without a jury in a bench trial. Public nuisance is a legal doctrine traditionally used to address conditions that harm the general public. This doctrine has been used in concern over contaminated water, lead paint in housing stock and opioid distribution networks.

New Mexico is arguing that Meta’s platform architecture constitutes exactly such a condition. If the judge agrees, the remedy is not a fine. Instead, it is an abatement: a court order requiring Meta to eliminate the harmful condition.

Attorney General Torrez has already been explicit about what he will ask for: real age verification, not a checkbox asking users to confirm they are old enough; algorithm changes; and an independent monitor with authority to oversee compliance. These are structural demands on how the platform operates.

This is where drawing a parallel with Big Tobacco is apt. The tobacco litigation of the 1990s ultimately produced not just financial settlements but the Master Settlement Agreement, which imposed permanent restrictions on marketing practices and funded public health programs for decades. The public nuisance theory in the New Mexico case is designed to produce an analogous structural outcome for social media.

Precedent for tidal wave of cases

The significant effects of two verdicts are about evidence and precedent. For the first time, a jury has examined Meta’s internal documents – emails from engineers warning about self-harm, the rejected safety proposals and Zuckerberg’s personal decisions to prioritize engagement over protection – and returned a verdict that those documents mean precisely what they appear to say.

That finding, and the legal theories that produced it, is now part of the foundation on which 40-plus pending state attorney general cases, thousands of individual lawsuits and a federal trial later this year are likely to be built.

The abatement phase, beginning May 4, may prove more consequential than the dollar amounts. If the judge in the New Mexico case – or any judge in a subsequent case – orders real age verification, algorithm changes and an independent monitor, that would be a true structural change.

About the Author:

Carolina Rossini, Professor of Practice and Director for Program, Public Interest Technology Initiative, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Stock Market News

26 Mar

Oil remains volatile. Iran rejected the US plan to resolve the conflict and put forward its own conditions

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices rose. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.66%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.54%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.77%. The main catalyst for optimism was reports that Washington had sent Tehran a 15‑point peace proposal, sharply increasing the chances of a diplomatic exit from the Middle Eastern crisis. Against this backdrop, WTI oil prices and US Treasury yields declined, easing inflationary pressure and bringing investors back into risk assets, especially the technology sector. Semiconductor producers led the gains: AMD and Intel shares jumped more than 7%, and Nvidia added 2%, as investors once again began prioritizing growth stories amid easing inflation expectations. At the same time, the energy sector came under pressure due to the correction in oil prices, which led to declines in Exxon Mobil and Chevron shares.

European indices mostly rose. Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.41%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.36%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.54%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 1.42%. Investors reacted positively to signals from Washington indicating a desire for de‑escalation in the Middle East, interpreting this as the White House prioritizing the protection of the global economy from an inflationary shock. Despite Tehran’s formal rejection of the proposed ceasefire terms, the very fact that a diplomatic process had begun triggered a rally in risk assets and supported European government bonds.

WTI oil prices rose above 91.4 dollars per barrel, recovering after the sharp drop the day before. The market is being shaken by contradictory signals: while the Trump administration claims that “positive negotiations” are continuing through Pakistani intermediaries, Tehran officially rejected the American “15‑point plan.” Instead, Iran issued a counter‑ultimatum consisting of five conditions, including full recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and payment of war reparations. This diplomatic stalemate, combined with new Iranian missile strikes on infrastructure in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, brought the risk premium back into the market, overriding the temporary optimism from news of a possible ceasefire. Although Iran selectively allows passage for ships from “friendly” countries, US allies in the Asia‑Pacific region are already facing real shortages. The Philippines declared an energy emergency, and Australia and South Korea have reported hundreds of cases of fuel shortages at gas stations.

Asian markets also rose mostly yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 2.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 1.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.09%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 1.85%.

The AUD remained at a seven‑week low below 0.695 US dollars, reflecting growing investor pessimism regarding a peaceful resolution of the Middle Eastern crisis. Statements from the RBA added fuel to the fire: Deputy Governor Chris Kent warned that the global oil shock puts the regulator in a difficult position. Since the war with Iran is simultaneously accelerating inflation and suppressing economic growth, the RBA intends to focus on preventing inflation expectations from becoming “entrenched,” which implies tighter monetary policy.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,591.90 +35.53 (+0.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 46,429.49 +305.43 (+0.66%)

DAX (DE40) 22,957.08 +320.17 (+1.41%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 10,106.84 +141.68 (+1.42%)

USD Index 99.62 +0.18% (+0.19%)

News feed for: 2026.03.26

Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2) – EUR (MED)
Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2) – NOK (HIGH)
US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2) – USD (MED)
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2) – XNG (HIGH)
Mexico Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 21:00 (GMT+2) – MXN (HIGH)

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Mar

GBP/USD Eyes Middle East: Details Matter to the Market

By Analytical Department RoboForex

GBP/USD traded at 1.3364 on Thursday. The pair declined over the previous two sessions and is now showing signs of a tentative recovery amid expectations of a possible de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

The US has reportedly presented Iran with a 15-point settlement plan following discussions about a potential month-long truce. However, Iran has rejected participation in negotiations, stating that US diplomacy cannot be trusted.

In the UK, February inflation figures matched expectations. Headline CPI held steady at 3%, while core inflation edged up slightly to 3.2% against a forecast of 3.1%. However, the data had limited impact on the market, as it reflected conditions prior to the latest escalation in the Middle East.

Against the backdrop of lower oil prices, investors are revising their expectations for Bank of England policy. The market is now pricing in fewer than two rate hikes before year-end, with total expected tightening estimated at approximately 68 basis points, down from nearly 75 basis points previously.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market is forming a broad consolidation range around 1.3354, currently extending up to 1.3434. A decline to 1.3255 is expected in the near term, followed by the formation of a new consolidation range. An upside breakout would pave the way for a continuation wave to 1.3494, while a downside breakout would suggest further movement to 1.3119. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero and pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around 1.3355. A downside breakout has initiated a wave structure extending to 1.3255. Should this level be breached, further downside towards 1.3125 is likely. Conversely, an upside breakout from the range could trigger a growth wave to 1.3494. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is navigating competing forces amid short-term volatility driven by geopolitical headlines. While tentative signs of a potential US–Iran truce have offered some relief to markets, Iran’s rejection of negotiations underscores the fragility of hopes for de-escalation. Meanwhile, UK inflation data – though in line with forecasts – has been largely overlooked given its pre-escalation timeframe. Lower oil prices have prompted markets to scale back expectations for Bank of England tightening, offering modest support for sterling. With technical indicators pointing to continued consolidation and the Middle East situation remaining fluid, the pair’s near-term direction will likely hinge on further geopolitical developments.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Mar

HCI – HCI Group, Inc. has been added to our data-driven Watchlist.

🚨 HCI – HCI Group, Inc. has been added to our data-driven Watchlist.

Here are the details:

📈 HCI – HCI Group, Inc.
🏭 Sector: Financial Services (Insurance)
📊 Market Cap: Small / Micro Cap
⚡ Beta: 1.21 (High Risk)
📈 52W Performance: +11.09%
📊 Quant Score: 59/100 (Watchlist)

HCI Group has beaten its earnings-per-share estimates for four consecutive quarters. Currently, it has a dividend slightly above 1.00 percent, with a payout ratio of approximately just 7%. The current TTM P/E ratio is slightly above 6.50 with a 5-year average P/E around 12.33. The HCI earnings yield measures approximately 14.74 percent at time of writing

The price trend for HCI has been moving higher over the long-term with a sustained uptrend since a low of $27.65 in October of 2022. However, the stock has been retreating since a recent high in October 2025 at $210.50. Currently, the stock is hovering around the $153.85 per share level. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at around 44.1 level and our trend-following model labels the current situation as bearish.

Full Disclosure: I do not currently own this stock. Disclaimer: Content is educational purposes and not intended as investment advice.

These stock selections are data-driven based on a number of financial metrics and ratios every quarter when earnings are released. These selections are intended to be a step one idea (not a buy signal) but to spur further research into the stock, its competitors and its industry.

Charts

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