InvestMacro

Week 35: FX Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British Pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

Here are the latest links to our coverage of the Commitment of Traders data changes. Data updated through September 3rd.

Currency Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British Pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as ten out of the eleven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (41,458 contracts) with the British Pound (18,147 contracts), the Japanese Yen (15,248 contracts), the Australian Dollar (11,295 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (8,078 contracts), the EuroFX (7,180 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,730 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,152 contracts), the US Dollar Index (516 contracts) and with Bitcoin (274 contracts) also having a positive week.

The only currency seeing a decline in speculator bets was the Mexican Peso with a small reduction by -241 contracts on the week. See full article…

Weekly Market Price Changes

VIX, Wheat & Natural Gas lead weekly price gains

WTI Crude Oil, Gasoline & Brent Oil lead the price declines

See Weekly Price Changes for major markets and their performance.

COT Speculator Extremes

Speculator Extremes: Ultra T-Bonds, Yen, 5-Year & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. See full article…

COT Bonds

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised their Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (95,931 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (80,807 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (46,648 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (29,496 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (24,032 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-88,390 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-62,403 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-62,439 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-18,810 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. See full article…

COT Metals

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-14,345 contracts), Gold (-6,887 contracts), Silver (-6,127 contracts) and with Copper (-4,184 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week. See full article…

COT Soft Commodities

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (58,051 contracts) with Sugar (24,887 contracts), Soybeans (22,241 contracts), Soybean Oil (21,488 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,966 contracts), Wheat (4,939 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,043 contracts) and Cocoa (1,738 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-3,440 contracts), Cotton (-1,079 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,986 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. See full article…

COT Stock Markets

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher speculator net contract positions.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (33,089 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (15,541 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,641 contracts), the VIX (4,583 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (4,548 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-1,233 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-586 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week. See full article…

Have a Wonderful Trading Week

By InvestMacro.com

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators, non-commercials (for-profit traders), commercial traders and small traders were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Blog Posts

07 Sep

Currency Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British Pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by CAD, GBP & JPY

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only currency seeing a decline in speculator bets was the Mexican Peso with a small reduction by -241 contracts on the week.

Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

Highlighting this week’s currency data roundup is the continued gains for the Canadian dollar, British pound and the Japanese yen.

The Canadian dollar speculative position continued to improve this week and rose for a fifth consecutive week. The total gain over the past 5-weeks is now +127,719 contracts after the speculative position had fallen to an all-time low on July 30th at a total of -196,263 contracts. The current CAD positioning remains bearish for a 57th consecutive week but the speculator bets this week sit at a total of -68,544 contracts which is the least bearish level since April 30th. The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US dollar dipped this week following four straight weeks of gains that has taken the CADUSD over its 200-day moving average.

The British pound sterling speculator contracts rose strongly again this week (+18,147 contracts) and increased for a third straight week. The overall bullish position standing is back over the +100,000 net contract level after falling below this level in the previous four weeks. The GBP speculator bets recently rose to an all-time most bullish level on record on July 23rd with a total of +142,183 contracts. The top four most bullish levels on record have been in the past few months after eclipsing the previous high of +98,366 contracts that took place way back in July of 2007. The pound sterling exchange rate against the US dollar has been on the uptrend with increases in three out of the past four weeks. Last week, the GBPUSD rose to the best level since March of 2022 above the 1.3280 threshold.

The Japanese yen speculator bets also continued to gain this week and have now advanced for nine straight weeks. The speculative positioning for the yen had fallen to the second most bearish level on July 2nd at a total of -184,223 contracts but since then has seen a sharp turnaround. Over the last nine weeks, a total of +225,339 net contracts have come off that bearish mark and flipped the overall positioning into a bullish level at this week’s standing of +41,116 contracts – the best level since early 2021. The yen exchange rate has risen for six out of the past nine weeks versus the US dollar and is up by over 12 percent in that time-frame.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the British Pound (85 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (84 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the EuroFX (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (40 percent), the US Dollar Index (45 percent) and the Mexican Peso (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (44.4 percent)
EuroFX (62.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (84.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (93.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (56.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (38.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (84.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (74.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (40.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (24.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (3.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (68.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (63.9 percent)

Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (66 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (41 percent), the EuroFX (27 percent) and Bitcoin (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-15 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.8 percent)
EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-15.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-19.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (65.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (78.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-25.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-40.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-19.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-15.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-8.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-8.0 percent)
Bitcoin (11.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (6.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.5	20.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	57.3	7.7
– Net Position:	19,429	-17,906	-1,523
– Gross Longs:	34,725	9,933	2,233
– Gross Shorts:	15,296	27,839	3,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	62.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	2.1	-24.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 100,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	54.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	73.5	5.9
– Net Position:	100,018	-141,548	41,530
– Gross Longs:	215,969	402,899	85,362
– Gross Shorts:	115,951	544,447	43,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	36.2	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-30.6	40.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 108,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	24.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	66.9	9.4
– Net Position:	108,078	-120,955	12,877
– Gross Longs:	160,773	69,973	39,617
– Gross Shorts:	52,695	190,928	26,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	13.3	89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	13.3	1.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,868 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	57.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	72.2	9.9
– Net Position:	41,116	-46,765	5,649
– Gross Longs:	91,791	189,291	38,134
– Gross Shorts:	50,675	236,056	32,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	65.8	-64.5	22.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	62.9	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	28.0	23.3
– Net Position:	-21,882	23,439	-1,557
– Gross Longs:	8,822	42,236	14,057
– Gross Shorts:	30,704	18,797	15,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	37.7	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.2	-50.7	49.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	69.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	45.5	10.6
– Net Position:	-68,544	62,013	6,531
– Gross Longs:	31,460	178,469	33,726
– Gross Shorts:	100,004	116,456	27,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	41.7	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.7	-43.9	40.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,159 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	40.9	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	44.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-7,864	-6,812	14,676
– Gross Longs:	87,118	87,254	31,865
– Gross Shorts:	94,982	94,066	17,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	14.5	94.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-1.9	5.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	47.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	51.2	5.9
– Net Position:	-238	-2,156	2,394
– Gross Longs:	25,235	30,379	6,120
– Gross Shorts:	25,473	32,535	3,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	51.6	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	2.1	50.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	57.5	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	73.7	3.7
– Net Position:	30,479	-27,678	-2,801
– Gross Longs:	63,103	98,278	3,503
– Gross Shorts:	32,624	125,956	6,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	55.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	20.7	-27.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	60.9	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	20.9	3.0
– Net Position:	-50,811	36,778	14,033
– Gross Longs:	12,179	56,038	16,766
– Gross Shorts:	62,990	19,260	2,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	6.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.9	83.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	-5.2	81.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.9	3.7	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.5	5.0	3.1
– Net Position:	108	-351	243
– Gross Longs:	23,349	998	1,067
– Gross Shorts:	23,241	1,349	824
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	55.8	18.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-13.6	-5.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

07 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Ultra T-Bonds, Yen, 5-Year & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 79.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -240,202 net contracts this week with a jump of 29,496 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 65.8 this week. The speculator position registered 41,116 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 15,248 contracts in speculator bets.

Gold

The Gold speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Gold speculator level resides at a 97.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 6.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 287,558 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -6,887 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 92.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 25.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 631,571 net contracts this week with a rise of 80,807 contracts in the speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level sits at a 88.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.5 this week.

The speculator position was 63,921 net contracts this week with a reduction of -2,986 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,718,696 net contracts this week with a decline of -62,439 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 2.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.4 this week. The speculator position was -38,154 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,079 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level resides at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,002,827 net contracts this week with a drop of -88,390 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 3.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.4 this week. The speculator position was -50,811 net contracts this week with an increase by 2,152 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybeans

Finally, the Soybeans speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 8.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.6 this week. The speculator position was -162,025 net contracts this week with a gain of 22,241 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

07 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

On the downside, Palladium (17 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (97.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (100.0 percent)
Silver (79.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.0 percent)
Copper (45.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (21.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.0 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (82.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.7 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-29 percent) and Copper (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.9 percent)
Silver (-7.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.8 percent)
Copper (-27.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.9 percent)
Platinum (-28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)
Steel (10.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 287,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.4	15.7	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	76.8	5.3
– Net Position:	287,558	-311,887	24,329
– Gross Longs:	339,157	80,416	51,198
– Gross Shorts:	51,599	392,303	26,869
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.2	4.0	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-4.2	-12.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	23.3	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	72.6	8.2
– Net Position:	46,059	-64,529	18,470
– Gross Longs:	64,099	30,538	29,148
– Gross Shorts:	18,040	95,067	10,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	22.6	60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	10.3	-19.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.3	35.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	44.4	6.4
– Net Position:	12,961	-18,964	6,003
– Gross Longs:	77,290	70,738	18,996
– Gross Shorts:	64,329	89,702	12,993
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	54.1	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.2	29.0	-26.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.1	27.1	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	38.7	4.6
– Net Position:	1,388	-10,141	8,753
– Gross Longs:	41,924	23,587	12,771
– Gross Shorts:	40,536	33,728	4,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	64.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	26.8	12.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	61.5	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.5	8.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-11,633	11,622	11
– Gross Longs:	6,145	13,590	1,551
– Gross Shorts:	17,778	1,968	1,540
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	86.9	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	1.2	-38.1

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	69.8	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	50.9	1.2
– Net Position:	-3,732	3,836	-104
– Gross Longs:	4,066	14,153	135
– Gross Shorts:	7,798	10,317	239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	19.2	21.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.9	20.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

07 Sep

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised their Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (100 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (93 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (1 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (46.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (31.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (28.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (1.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (40.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (35.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (72.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (100.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (86.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (38.8 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (55.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (92.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (88.7 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (79 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds. The SOFR 3-Months (26 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 1-Month (-40 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (-30 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-22.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-4.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-29.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-22.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (10.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (79.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (69.2 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-40.3 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (34.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 95,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.7	70.3	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	63.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-90,734	106,172	-15,438
– Gross Longs:	226,762	1,163,911	25,969
– Gross Shorts:	317,496	1,057,739	41,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	53.6	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-5.5	-39.0

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 631,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 80,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 550,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	53.8	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	59.4	0.5
– Net Position:	631,571	-630,902	-669
– Gross Longs:	1,960,048	6,047,347	50,527
– Gross Shorts:	1,328,477	6,678,249	51,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.9	6.9	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-25.8	-1.0

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -104,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -62,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	63.2	0.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	53.5	0.1
– Net Position:	-104,183	104,828	-645
– Gross Longs:	193,472	683,928	332
– Gross Shorts:	297,655	579,100	977
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	61.4	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.3	40.1	2.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -982,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 46,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,029,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	77.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	57.9	2.5
– Net Position:	-982,462	814,688	167,774
– Gross Longs:	614,392	3,261,747	272,379
– Gross Shorts:	1,596,854	2,447,059	104,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	61.8	89.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-11.9	1.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,718,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -62,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,656,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	83.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	60.1	3.7
– Net Position:	-1,718,696	1,475,139	243,557
– Gross Longs:	548,634	5,348,029	478,777
– Gross Shorts:	2,267,330	3,872,890	235,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.1	99.1	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	11.1	8.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,002,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -88,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -914,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.0	78.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	61.1	7.0
– Net Position:	-1,002,827	846,839	155,988
– Gross Longs:	430,206	3,782,720	494,696
– Gross Shorts:	1,433,033	2,935,881	338,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.9	93.6	99.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	39.6	8.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 24,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	75.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	69.1	12.3
– Net Position:	-83,759	127,871	-44,112
– Gross Longs:	287,562	1,588,757	216,022
– Gross Shorts:	371,321	1,460,886	260,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	39.8	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-13.0	9.4

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -33,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,234 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	63.0	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	68.0	7.3
– Net Position:	-33,044	-85,532	118,576
– Gross Longs:	350,527	1,092,273	244,254
– Gross Shorts:	383,571	1,177,805	125,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-22.3	23.7

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -240,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 29,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -269,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	78.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	65.7	9.5
– Net Position:	-240,202	212,830	27,372
– Gross Longs:	159,543	1,320,086	187,073
– Gross Shorts:	399,745	1,107,256	159,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	49.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	79.1	-88.7	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Sep

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Live Cattle (-3,440 contracts), Cotton (-1,079 contracts) and with Coffee (-2,986 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (88 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Wheat (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (3 percent), Soybeans (8 percent) and Live Cattle (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (22.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (27.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.3 percent)
Coffee (88.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.1 percent)
Soybeans (8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (36.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (39.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (34.4 percent)
Live Cattle (11.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (25.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (22.2 percent)
Cotton (2.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (42.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.8 percent)
Wheat (50.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.5 percent)

Corn & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (17 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (13 percent), Wheat (5 percent) and Soybean Meal (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Live Cattle (-18 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Coffee (-3 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.5 percent)
Sugar (13.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.9 percent)
Coffee (-2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.0 percent)
Soybeans (-5.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-0.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-14.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (16.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (13.3 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-6.4 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-2.1 percent)
Wheat (5.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -90,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 58,051 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	44.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	35.5	12.0
– Net Position:	-90,483	122,906	-32,423
– Gross Longs:	335,231	605,741	131,166
– Gross Shorts:	425,714	482,835	163,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.4	78.8	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-14.5	-29.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 72,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.3	54.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	64.2	7.2
– Net Position:	72,802	-78,891	6,089
– Gross Longs:	185,306	455,449	66,162
– Gross Shorts:	112,504	534,340	60,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.1	73.8	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-13.7	13.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 63,921 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.1	37.5	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	71.5	2.6
– Net Position:	63,921	-66,756	2,835
– Gross Longs:	80,574	73,587	8,016
– Gross Shorts:	16,653	140,343	5,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.2	11.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	2.3	2.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -162,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 22,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	65.0	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	42.7	7.5
– Net Position:	-162,025	184,576	-22,551
– Gross Longs:	111,107	538,620	39,691
– Gross Shorts:	273,132	354,044	62,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.3	94.4	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	8.7	-30.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	53.1	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	51.8	4.8
– Net Position:	-8,305	6,912	1,393
– Gross Longs:	133,596	283,945	26,951
– Gross Shorts:	141,901	277,033	25,558
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.9	66.3	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	3.9	-25.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 29,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,049 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	46.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	56.1	5.1
– Net Position:	29,015	-50,660	21,645
– Gross Longs:	122,853	242,812	48,556
– Gross Shorts:	93,838	293,472	26,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	57.6	53.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-3.6	18.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	36.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	43.1	13.0
– Net Position:	30,329	-18,370	-11,959
– Gross Longs:	95,135	109,383	26,606
– Gross Shorts:	64,806	127,753	38,565
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	100.0	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	19.8	0.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	38.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	33.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-7,742	12,341	-4,599
– Gross Longs:	97,199	95,993	17,559
– Gross Shorts:	104,941	83,652	22,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	75.8	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-16.4	-13.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,154 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	50.3	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	33.2	6.2
– Net Position:	-38,154	39,133	-979
– Gross Longs:	53,387	115,192	13,259
– Gross Shorts:	91,541	76,059	14,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	97.0	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	1.6	6.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 31,930 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.7	32.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	60.0	3.5
– Net Position:	31,930	-38,437	6,507
– Gross Longs:	52,248	44,648	11,329
– Gross Shorts:	20,318	83,085	4,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	53.5	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.4	0.6	6.8

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	35.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	26.7	9.4
– Net Position:	-27,742	33,399	-5,657
– Gross Longs:	134,551	134,830	29,968
– Gross Shorts:	162,293	101,431	35,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.4	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-5.7	2.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Sep

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell Minis

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-1,233 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-586 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) and DowJones-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (41 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (82.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (57.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (73.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (79.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (72.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (85.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (74.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (32.6 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (41 percent) and the Russell-Mini (41 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (35 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (28 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (34.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (34.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-5.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-11.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (24.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (40.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (22.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (29.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-10.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,472 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	47.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	40.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-25,889	24,890	999
– Gross Longs:	69,226	179,907	29,448
– Gross Shorts:	95,115	155,017	28,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	7.1	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.8	-44.3	37.3

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	68.9	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.2	8.0
– Net Position:	-48,819	-47,646	96,465
– Gross Longs:	322,215	1,451,604	265,814
– Gross Shorts:	371,034	1,499,250	169,349
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	33.3	77.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	6.6	-4.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	58.8	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	67.2	15.9
– Net Position:	7,136	-7,196	60
– Gross Longs:	19,772	50,054	13,594
– Gross Shorts:	12,636	57,250	13,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	27.8	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	10.8	-16.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 25,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	52.7	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	68.7	11.8
– Net Position:	25,988	-40,818	14,830
– Gross Longs:	67,895	133,799	44,849
– Gross Shorts:	41,907	174,617	30,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	7.8	82.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.2	-25.9	-5.7

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	72.2	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	75.1	4.4
– Net Position:	260	-12,603	12,343
– Gross Longs:	77,438	313,046	31,430
– Gross Shorts:	77,178	325,649	19,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	12.4	70.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.7	-36.6	-1.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	60.2	25.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.0	51.1	16.9
– Net Position:	-2,439	1,252	1,187
– Gross Longs:	1,939	8,230	3,499
– Gross Shorts:	4,378	6,978	2,312
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	35.2	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.0	-16.4	-18.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -26,037 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	88.8	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	84.3	1.5
– Net Position:	-26,037	18,072	7,965
– Gross Longs:	29,958	356,777	13,856
– Gross Shorts:	55,995	338,705	5,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	54.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.0	3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

06 Sep

Week Ahead: USDInd faces triple risk cocktail

By ForexTime

USDInd ↓ 5% from 2024 high

US Presidential debate, CPI & ECB in focus

Euro accounts for almost 60% of USDInd

Over past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.7% & ↓ 0.6%

First levels of interest – 101.94 & 100.52

As the countdown gets closer to the key US jobs report later today (Friday, September 6), mindful investors are keeping tabs on what’s to come in the week ahead.

A combination of economic and political forces could spell fresh volatility for global markets:

Monday, 9th Sept

CN50: China PPI, CPI
JP225: Japan GDP
TWN: Taiwan trade
US500: US wholesale inventories
NAS100: Apple iPhone 16 product launch

Tuesday, 10th Sept

AU200: Australia consumer confidence
CN50: China trade
GER40: Germany CPI
UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment
USDInd: Trump vs Harris Presidential debate

Wednesday 11th Sept

UK100: UK industrial production
USDInd: US August CPI report

Thursday, 12th Sept

JP225: Japan PPI
NZD: New Zealand food prices
US500: US initial jobless claims, PPI
USDInd: ECB rate decision

Friday, 13th Sept

EU50: Eurozone industrial production
JP225: Japan industrial production
NZD: New Zealand PMI
US500: US University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Our focus is on FXTM’s USDInd which could be rocked by three heavy-hitting events.

Looking at the charts, the dollar has shed over 5% from its 2024 high due to expectations around lower US interest rates. Fears of a US recession have also empowered bears with prices trading near a yearly low.

DXY W2

Note: FXTM’s USDInd tracks the US Dollar Index. This measures how the dollar performs against a basket of six different G10 currencies, including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Canadian dollar.

With the US jobs report just a few hours away, the USDInd may end this week with a bang!

Still, more volatility could be on the cards next week and here are 3 reasons why:

1) Trump vs Harris: US Presidential debate

All eyes will be on the US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris scheduled for Tuesday, September 10th.

Both are expected to debate key economic issues, geopolitics and policies among other topics. It is worth noting that the US election is less than two months away with national polls showing Kamala Harris leading narrowly. This development could add more spice to the upcoming debate which could impact the overall election outcome.

Whatever the outcome of this major political event, it could trigger fresh volatility for the dollar and global markets.

2) US August CPI report

The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday, September 11th may heavily influence bets around how aggressively the Fed cuts rates this month and onwards.

Note: This is the final inflation report before the Fed’s September 17 – 18 policy meeting!

Markets are forecasting CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month in August and cool to 2.6% year-over-year from the 2.9% prior. Regarding the core print, this is forecast to rise 0.2% month-on-month while remaining at 3.2% year-on-year. Markets will be looking for more signs of cooling price pressures which may reinforce bets around lower US rates.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.7% or declines of 0.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

The USDInd could fall on more signs of cooling price pressures.

Should the US CPI report print higher than expected, this could push the USDInd higher.

3) ECB rate decision

The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Thursday, September 12th.

So, much focus will be on the GDP and inflation forecasts of the staff economists along with President Lagarde’s press conference for fresh insight. With annual inflation in the Eurozone falling to 2.2% in August from 2.6% in the previous month, this supported bets around lower ECB rates.

Note: The Euro accounts for almost 60% of the USDInd weighting. A weaker euro tends to push the index higher and vice versa.

As of writing, traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point ECB cut next week with the odds of another cut by October currently at 45%.

The USDInd could push higher if the ECB cuts rates and signals more down the road.

Should the central bank sound less dovish than expected on future cuts, this could drag the USDInd lower as the Euro strengthens.

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the ECB rate decision has sparked upside moves as much as 0.4% or declines of 0.3% in the 6 hours post-release.

4) Technical forces

Prices remain under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flirting near oversold territory.

A sold breakout above 101.94 may signal a move towards 103.27.

Should prices slip below 100.52, bears may be encouraged to target 99.60 and potentially lower.

DXY

Note this report was published before the key US jobs report on Friday.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Sep

Gold rallies as market bets on rapid Fed monetary easing

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold has returned to growth. On Friday, a troy ounce of the precious metal was priced at 2517 USD. The price has stabilised as the market awaits the release of August’s crucial US employment report. The data could prompt a revision of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, which is particularly important given the short time left before the Fed meets.

Lower interest rates could reduce the cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset. Given the weak employment market signals, the market believes the Fed will be forced to act more decisively.

The latest statistics showed that private employers in the US hired at the slowest pace in 3.5 years in August. This follows a decline in the number of job vacancies. In addition, manufacturing activity in the economy declined. All this appears to be a negative factor indicating the state of the US economy and fuelling expectations of a 50-basis points rate cut in September. Investors are currently pricing in a 41% probability of such a scenario, which is relatively high. Considering fundamental factors, it is reasonable to assume that gold prices will continue to rise.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has received support at 2472.00. Currently, the structure of a growth wave towards 2513.62 is being formed. Today, the market is creating a consolidation range around this level. An upside breakout will open the potential for growth towards 2555.50. A break above the 2522.00 level may signal the development of a further growth wave. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero and sloping upwards.

On the H1 chart of XAUUSD, the market has completed a growth wave to 2513.62. Currently, the range is extended upwards to the level of 2523.20 and downwards to the level of 2504.00. In the case of a downward breakout, a decline to 2491.55 may occur. Conversely, an upward breakout could continue the trend to 2555.50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is near the level of 80 and is preparing to decline to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

06 Sep

Utilities rely on dirty ‘peaker’ plants when power demand surges, but there are alternatives

By Akshaya Jha, Carnegie Mellon University

The U.S. is nearing the end of one of its hottest summers on record. Across the nation, heat waves have driven peak electricity demand on some days to levels far exceeding seasonal averages.

Grid operators rely on so-called “peaker” plants to ensure they will have enough supply to meet these demand surges. Peaker units can start up quickly and at relatively low cost, but they typically burn more fuel per unit of electricity produced than other types of fossil fuel units.

Because they are less efficient than other plants, peakers typically run only during high-demand periods. Historically, peakers have run for less than 10% of the year, often for just a few hours at a stretch.

Nonetheless, their higher emissions per unit of electricity produced raise environmental and health concerns. As of 2021, there were 999 peaker plants across the U.S., in all 50 states. About 70% of these plants burned natural gas, and the rest were powered by oil and coal.

To reduce air pollution and combat climate change, the U.S. is shifting away from fossil fuels and increasing its use of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. Ironically, though, as climate change generates more frequent and intense heat waves, many electricity systems are increasingly relying on peaker plants to balance fluctuations in renewable power generation. Proposals to build new peakers or extend the lives of old ones have stirred controversy in states including Wisconsin, Massachusetts, Texas and New York.

My research focuses on the economic and environmental costs and benefits of producing electricity. Here’s how the clean energy transition is changing the role of peaker plants and some other options for keeping the lights on during peak demand periods.

South Bronx residents call on New York state to shut down local peaker plants in 2022. These plants are disproportionately located in low-income and minority neighborhoods.

Balancing the power supply

For system operators, one key characteristic of a power plant is whether it can produce power on demand. Many renewable resources, including wind, solar and certain types of hydropower, are known as nondispatchable resources because they are governed by nature, producing energy when conditions allow. The cost of generating electricity with them is low, so they are typically used to their maximum capacity.

Power plants that run on fossil fuels or nuclear power are known as dispatchable resources because they can produce power whenever it’s needed. They have higher operating costs than renewables, however, mainly because gas, coal, nuclear and oil plants must buy fuel in order to operate.

Some of these plants – historically, those that run on coal or nuclear fuel – are called baseload plants. They generate power relatively cheaply but take time to start up and ramp up to full power. Intermediate units produce power at a higher cost for each additional megawatt-hour produced, but they can cycle up and down more quickly than baseload plants. Peakers have the highest costs per megawatt-hour, but they can adjust their output very quickly.

Historically, baseload units operated year-round, with intermediate units adjusting output to meet short-term demand fluctuations. Peaker plants were used only during rare peak demand periods.

But as power suppliers add more wind and solar energy to the grid, they are using dispatchable fossil fuel units more frequently to balance changes in renewable generation – for example, to run air conditioners when the sun goes down but temperatures are still high. This favors units that can quickly change production levels, even if they are less fuel-efficient. The result is a growing role for peaker plants.

Kearny Generating Station, a former coal-fired baseload power plant, now a gas-fired peaker, on the Hackensack River in New Jersey.
Jim Henderson/Wikipedia, CC BY

Environmental justice flash points

Electricity production from fossil fuels in the U.S. has decreased with large-scale investment in wind and solar generation. But fossil fuel-burning power plants still produce about 60% of U.S. electricity – and those plants emit pollutants that contribute to climate change and degrade local air quality.

Exposure to sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter and ozone is linked to respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses and premature death. While overall air pollution has decreased in the U.S. in recent decades, low-income and minority neighborhoods still suffer disproportionately from poor air quality.

One 2022 report estimates that 32 million Americans live within 3 miles of a peaker plant. In 2024, the U.S. Government Accountability Office reported that historically disadvantaged racial or ethnic communities were statistically more likely to be located closer than average to peakers.

Other ways to meet peak demand

How else can electricity supply and demand be balanced? One option is using batteries to store electricity when wind or solar output is high, then discharging it when demand exceeds supply from conventional resources.

Although battery investment costs currently are high, they are projected to decrease significantly in the coming decades. In 2023, the U.S. had a total of about 15 gigawatts of battery storage capacity – equivalent to 15 large nuclear power plants – and that figure could double in 2024.

Another alternative is expanding transmission systems, which make it possible to draw on electricity from lower-cost units in distant areas instead of relying on nearby peaker plants. Building new transmission lines, however, comes with significant regulatory, permitting and land use challenges.

A third option is demand response programs, in which electricity consumers pay higher prices during higher demand periods. This could help reduce peaks and valleys in demand across the day, benefiting more efficient but less flexible baseload units designed to run around the clock.

Most consumers, however, don’t currently pay prices that reflect short-term changes in wholesale electricity costs. Moreover, it’s uncertain whether residential customers would alter their consumption based on short-horizon price fluctuations. Technologies such as smart thermostats and energy management apps could help by taking the burden off consumers to manually adjust their electricity use in response to price fluctuations.

Finally, power plant owners can invest in technologies to reduce emissions from fossil fuel units. Peakers typically lack pollution control technologies because they aren’t used very often. Retrofitting older plants to make them more efficient could also help, since they would produce fewer emissions for each unit of electricity.

These investments are costly, so policymakers have to weigh the health benefits of reduced air pollution against the investment costs for power plant owners.

Increasing investment in wind and solar energy is reducing local air pollution from electricity production. But it’s also shifting production away from thermally efficient baseload units that can’t respond quickly to shifts in demand or renewables output. I believe it is increasingly important to explore policies that create incentives for investing in alternatives such as battery storage and transmission infrastructure, as well as in power plant upgrades to reduce pollution exposure.

About the Author:

Akshaya Jha, Associate Professor of Economics and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

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