InvestMacro

Japanese Yen Weakens as USD/JPY Climbs Amid BoJ Rate Hike Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair reached a high of 151.07 on Tuesday, marking its highest level in a week. This movement is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The market remains split on whether the BoJ will implement a rate increase in December or delay it until January.

Recent statements from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted that a rate hike is imminent, based on stable economic indicators aligning with expectations. Contrarily, BoJ policymaker Toyoaki Nakamura expressed concerns over the sustainability of wage growth and signs of economic weakening in Japan, adding layers of uncertainty that are influencing market dynamics.

Recent GDP data for Japan showed a growth of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, surpassing the expected 0.2% increase. This stronger-than-anticipated economic performance supports a more aggressive stance on future monetary policy adjustments by the BoJ.

Looking ahead, the full scope of the BoJ’s monetary policy for 2025 remains unclear, but increased pressure is expected as the Federal Reserve’s fiscal adjustments set a significant pace for change.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 chart: USD/JPY found support at 149.35 and has since been on an upward trajectory. The pair recently breached the 151.00 level, indicating potential for further gains towards 152.50. Currently, a narrow consolidation range has formed around 151.00. Should there be a downward exit from this range, a corrective move to 149.90 might follow. Conversely, an upward break could see the continuation of the upward wave to 152.50, potentially extending to 153.30. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with its signal line below zero but ascending sharply.

H1 chart: the market has established a consolidation range around 151.00. A downward exit from this range could lead to a correction towards 149.90. If the pair breaks upwards, it is expected to continue the upward wave towards 152.50. Upon reaching this target, a possible correction back to 149.90 may occur. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this analysis, showing the signal line below 50 and heading towards 20, indicating potential downward movement before resuming upward momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Dec

The NFP report increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week. China still fails to stoke inflation with stimulus

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) was down 0.28% (for the week -0.63%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.25% (for the week +0.83%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.92% (up +3.10% for the week). The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices set new record highs on Friday, helped by a stronger-than-expected November employment report reinforcing optimism for a Federal Reserve rate cut this month. Nonfarm Payroll Employment rose by 227,000, exceeding the estimate of 214,000, recovering from the bad weather and strikes seen in October. Following the report, traders raised the probability of a December rate cut to 90% from 70%. The rally was led by major technology stocks, with Amazon (+2.9%), Tesla (+5.3%), and Meta (+2.5%) all rising, reflecting confidence in the labor market and potential Fed policy changes.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.41 per dollar in December, the lowest level since April 2020, as investors embraced softer-than-expected labor market data. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November from 6.5%, beating projections of 6.6% and marking the highest level since September 2021. This is in line with the Bank of Canada’s concerns about a weakening labor market and increased expectations of a 50 bps rate cut this week. In addition, tariff threats by US President-elect Donald Trump, including tariff hikes of 25% for Canada and Mexico and 10% for China, dampened sentiment given Canada’s reliance on US energy and auto demand.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.13% (for the week +4.08%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.31% higher (for the week +3.91%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.39% (for the week +4.27%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.49% (for the week +0.26%). Economists seem to have missed the political situation in France, where President Macron has promised to appoint a new Prime Minister in the coming days and form a new “government of common interests.” In Germany, despite economic woes and political problems at home, the benchmark DAX Index (DE40) has shown surprising resilience, achieving roughly a 20% gain over the past year. This strength is due to globally oriented companies benefiting from international revenue streams and a weakening euro, which improves export competitiveness.

The Eurozone economy grew by 0.4% in Q3, the strongest pace in two years, following 0.2% growth in Q2 and in line with previous estimates. Among the largest economies, Germany’s GDP grew by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the preliminary estimate but avoided recession. In addition, France’s GDP grew by 0.4%, and the Spanish economy remained resilient (+0.8%). On the other hand, the Italian economy stalled, and the Dutch economy slowed down (+0.8%).

According to banks and industry consultants, OPEC+’s decision to postpone the resumption of supply until April will reduce global oil production next year, which will tighten the balance somewhat, but a glut is still expected. Nevertheless, rising supply, especially from non-OPEC+ countries in the Americas, and weak demand from China remain major concerns. Morgan Stanley raised its estimates for Brent crude oil prices for the third and fourth quarters of 2025 to $70 a barrel from $68 and $66, respectively. ING Groep NV raised its prognosis for Brent to $71 a barrel from $69.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.18%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.18%.

China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, missing market estimates of 0.5% and the lowest since June. The slowdown showed the country’s growing deflation risks despite recent government stimulus measures and the Central Bank’s supportive stance on monetary policy. Inflation remains subdued, which will require continued stimulus.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,090.27 +15.16 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones (US30) 6,090.27 −123.19 (−0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 20,384.61 +25.81 (+0.13%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,308.61 −40.77 (−0.49%)

USD Index 105.97 +0.26 (+0.24%)

News feed for: 2024.12.09

Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
Mexican Inflation Rate (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Dec

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (24,967 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,073 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (726 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-10,375 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-9,847 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-5,344 contracts), the British Pound (-2,308 contracts), the EuroFX (-1,480 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,418 contracts), Bitcoin (-399 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-255 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push Japanese Yen bets into small bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the recent bullish moves in the Japanese yen speculator position.

The Japanese yen speculator positions rose this week by almost +25,000 contracts following a similar gain by +24,235 contracts last week and by +18,034 contracts two weeks ago. Yen positions have now increased by a total of +67,236 contracts over these past three weeks which has totally erased the bearish net positioning of the prior five weeks. The positive sentiment by the speculators has pushed the overall net position into a small bullish level of +2,334 contracts which is the first bullish standing since October 22nd.

Over the year, the yen speculator positions have been highly bearish with a weekly average of -75,251 contracts for 2024 so far. The yen positioning fell as low as -184,223 contracts on July 2nd but speculators bearish bets have eased off in the second half of the year and specs did have an eleven-week streak of bullish positions from August to October. The speculator strength score (the percent of current speculator’s level compared to the past 3-years) is a strong 75 percent at the moment.

The yen exchange rate has been on an extremely weak trajectory throughout 2024 as well with the Japanese currency falling to multi-decade lows multiple times. Currently, the yen is still within 8 percent of the latest low with the USDJPY currency pair trading around 150.00.

The yen seems to be at a crossroads at the moment with a lot of money on the sidelines that could take this small bullish position in either direction. The overall direction of the US Dollar will be a major factor in whether this might be near the yen bottom or just another step in a weaker Japanese currency.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Australian Dollar & Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Australian Dollar (91 percent) and the Japanese Yen (75 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the EuroFX (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (2 percent), Bitcoin (16 percent), the Canadian Dollar (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (0.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (45.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (74.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (64.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (18.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (91.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (98.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (30.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (30.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (44.9 percent)
Bitcoin (16.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (25.2 percent)

Bitcoin tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-25 percent), Swiss Franc (-17 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-8.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.5 percent)
EuroFX (-11.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-29.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-28.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-17.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-27.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-14.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-4.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-41.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-43.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (-10.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-13.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.3 percent)
Bitcoin (1.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	25.5	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.5	20.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-3,054	1,801	1,253
– Gross Longs:	21,903	9,563	4,009
– Gross Shorts:	24,957	7,762	2,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.6	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	4.8	16.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,009 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	59.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	54.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-57,489	34,476	23,013
– Gross Longs:	167,693	401,120	77,569
– Gross Shorts:	225,182	366,644	54,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	12.6	-12.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	46.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	50.5	13.8
– Net Position:	19,326	-8,995	-10,331
– Gross Longs:	98,056	114,068	23,219
– Gross Shorts:	78,730	123,063	33,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	57.8	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	28.7	-35.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 2,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	43.3	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	43.3	16.2
– Net Position:	2,334	-164	-2,170
– Gross Longs:	93,622	111,171	39,431
– Gross Shorts:	91,288	111,335	41,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	28.4	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	3.8	-0.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,418 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,676 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	83.0	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.9	20.4	25.6
– Net Position:	-41,094	53,351	-12,257
– Gross Longs:	4,874	70,719	9,565
– Gross Shorts:	45,968	17,368	21,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.6	86.4	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	27.6	-39.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -159,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -154,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	80.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	29.6	11.6
– Net Position:	-159,346	165,505	-6,159
– Gross Longs:	21,696	261,571	31,609
– Gross Shorts:	181,042	96,066	37,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	84.3	12.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	6.9	5.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 21,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	37.4	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	49.1	13.0
– Net Position:	21,401	-22,286	885
– Gross Longs:	86,699	71,206	25,601
– Gross Shorts:	65,298	93,492	24,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.5	16.7	52.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	11.5	-33.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	66.5	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	34.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-23,308	25,730	-2,422
– Gross Longs:	21,213	53,338	3,446
– Gross Shorts:	44,521	27,608	5,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	96.3	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.7	45.1	-41.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,184 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	52.5	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	53.8	4.2
– Net Position:	4,184	-1,838	-2,346
– Gross Longs:	55,114	77,150	3,777
– Gross Shorts:	50,930	78,988	6,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.9	73.2	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.1	9.8	3.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.6	53.5	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.4	22.7	5.7
– Net Position:	-17,414	18,647	-1,233
– Gross Longs:	25,853	32,419	2,213
– Gross Shorts:	43,267	13,772	3,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	66.7	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	14.6	-5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,196 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.7	4.4	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	1.6	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,595	1,040	555
– Gross Longs:	30,625	1,615	1,600
– Gross Shorts:	32,220	575	1,045
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	89.4	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.8	1.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Lean Hogs, T-Bonds, US Dollar & Euro lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 33.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 91,759 net contracts this week with a rise by 10,520 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is now at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 48.9 this week. The speculator position registered -214,352 net contracts this week with a weekly decrease by -19,666 contracts in speculator bets.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Australian Dollar speculator level resides at a 91.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -4.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 21,401 net contracts this week with a drop by -10,375 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 90.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 66,727 net contracts this week with a decrease of -3,886 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.5 this week.

The speculator position was -1,996 net contracts this week with a small rise by 107 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The US Dollar Index speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -3,054 net contracts this week with a small decline of -255 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Euro speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.8 this week. The speculator position was -57,489 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,480 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 0.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -22,279 net contracts this week with a small gain of 179 contracts in the speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 1.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.7 this week. The speculator position was -23,308 net contracts this week with an increase of 1,073 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,861,100 net contracts this week with a drop by -95,529 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News

07 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as all six of the metals markets we cover had slightly higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (9,398 contracts) with Platinum (1,826 contracts), Copper (541 contracts), Silver (477 contracts), Steel (107 contracts) and Palladium (9 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) and Gold (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (78.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.3 percent)
Silver (70.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.2 percent)
Copper (43.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (42.5 percent)
Platinum (64.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.1 percent)
Palladium (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (88.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.3 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that there are no positive movers currently in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.7 percent)
Silver (-29.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.2 percent)
Copper (-20.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.8 percent)
Platinum (-34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.0 percent)
Palladium (-4.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.7 percent)
Steel (-3.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 259,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 250,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.6	13.7	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	75.6	4.7
– Net Position:	259,736	-286,275	26,539
– Gross Longs:	307,611	63,251	48,337
– Gross Shorts:	47,875	349,526	21,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	19.2	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	13.8	-7.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 43,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,783 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	24.4	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.6	8.0
– Net Position:	43,260	-62,019	18,759
– Gross Longs:	64,285	32,688	29,478
– Gross Shorts:	21,025	94,707	10,719
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	25.8	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	25.8	-1.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	35.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	42.5	5.7
– Net Position:	10,466	-14,783	4,317
– Gross Longs:	86,478	75,871	16,412
– Gross Shorts:	76,012	90,654	12,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	57.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.5	25.1	-42.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.5	18.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	48.6	3.8
– Net Position:	20,486	-28,718	8,232
– Gross Longs:	55,415	17,292	11,849
– Gross Shorts:	34,929	46,010	3,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	28.5	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.0	26.9	37.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,643 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	49.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.6	18.4	7.7
– Net Position:	-5,643	4,841	802
– Gross Longs:	5,402	7,728	2,015
– Gross Shorts:	11,045	2,887	1,213
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.5	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	3.2	5.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	66.5	0.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	59.8	0.6
– Net Position:	-1,996	1,926	70
– Gross Longs:	7,486	19,039	248
– Gross Shorts:	9,482	17,113	178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	12.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	3.5	0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

07 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by SOFR 1-Month, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 1-Month, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month (110,282 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (34,702 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (31,747 contracts) and the Fed Funds (16,165 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-108,271 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-95,529 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-43,833 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-19,666 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-11,361 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (92 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (63 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (7 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 10-Year Bonds (24 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (49.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (46.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (29.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (40.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (63.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (67.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (92.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (100.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (39.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (12.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (32.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (38.1 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 1-Month top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (49 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-25 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-4.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-25.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (4.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (48.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (48.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (32.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-2.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-25.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-28.4 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.1	67.0	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	65.2	2.7
– Net Position:	-28,904	27,431	1,473
– Gross Longs:	215,615	1,023,438	43,078
– Gross Shorts:	244,519	996,007	41,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	47.0	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.5	25.8	42.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -536,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -108,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -428,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	60.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	55.5	0.4
– Net Position:	-536,881	552,005	-15,124
– Gross Longs:	1,269,597	6,701,108	29,815
– Gross Shorts:	1,806,478	6,149,103	44,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	68.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.0	26.1	-10.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -116,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 110,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -226,947 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	67.5	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.9	57.9	0.0
– Net Position:	-116,665	116,518	147
– Gross Longs:	234,263	819,843	660
– Gross Shorts:	350,928	703,325	513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	60.2	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.7	-32.9	11.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,202,899 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,747 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,234,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	77.5	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	52.7	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,202,899	1,061,813	141,086
– Gross Longs:	506,365	3,324,264	259,271
– Gross Shorts:	1,709,264	2,262,451	118,185
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.0	79.9	80.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-10.4	-11.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,861,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -95,529 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,765,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	85.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	56.5	4.8
– Net Position:	-1,861,100	1,741,156	119,944
– Gross Longs:	402,072	5,148,595	409,306
– Gross Shorts:	2,263,172	3,407,439	289,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	92.3	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.7	18.0	-11.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -891,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -926,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	79.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	60.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-891,901	842,621	49,280
– Gross Longs:	434,911	3,572,758	425,946
– Gross Shorts:	1,326,812	2,730,137	376,666
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	81.9	75.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	12.3	-12.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -163,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -119,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	74.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	64.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-163,297	216,058	-52,761
– Gross Longs:	323,901	1,609,439	224,218
– Gross Shorts:	487,198	1,393,381	276,979
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	57.3	80.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.4	24.7	13.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -58,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,361 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	65.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	66.1	7.4
– Net Position:	-58,775	-11,133	69,908
– Gross Longs:	408,017	1,217,310	206,464
– Gross Shorts:	466,792	1,228,443	136,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.0	25.1	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	2.5	-15.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -214,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -19,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -194,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	79.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	68.1	9.4
– Net Position:	-214,352	200,509	13,843
– Gross Longs:	150,423	1,410,435	181,097
– Gross Shorts:	364,775	1,209,926	167,254
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	5.5	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.9	-62.2	16.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Nasdaq-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a gain of 10,232 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-29,716 contracts), the VIX (-13,822 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-8,962 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,462 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-1,552 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (77 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (74 percent) and the VIX (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (66.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (78.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (48.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (53.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (77.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (79.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (69.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (74.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (35.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.8 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (42 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-17.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-19.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-16.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (41.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-19.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.5	44.3	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	35.1	8.5
– Net Position:	-33,202	31,526	1,676
– Gross Longs:	66,912	152,286	30,871
– Gross Shorts:	100,114	120,760	29,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.3	34.8	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	34.8	-15.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -108,610 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	72.2	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	74.0	6.5
– Net Position:	-108,610	-40,012	148,622
– Gross Longs:	257,606	1,646,683	295,702
– Gross Shorts:	366,216	1,686,695	147,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	34.4	98.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	10.8	21.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	52.1	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	66.8	13.8
– Net Position:	10,500	-13,613	3,113
– Gross Longs:	26,196	48,062	15,863
– Gross Shorts:	15,696	61,675	12,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	18.5	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	1.1	6.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	54.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	68.7	9.7
– Net Position:	29,691	-40,965	11,274
– Gross Longs:	89,355	160,837	39,675
– Gross Shorts:	59,664	201,802	28,401
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.2	7.6	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.9	-30.5	1.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	75.5	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	78.5	3.4
– Net Position:	-11,574	-15,176	26,750
– Gross Longs:	65,152	379,981	43,620
– Gross Shorts:	76,726	395,157	16,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	14.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.8	11.2	34.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -498 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.0	70.2	27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.7	55.7	19.5
– Net Position:	-2,464	1,576	888
– Gross Longs:	221	7,620	3,008
– Gross Shorts:	2,685	6,044	2,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	37.5	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	4.8	1.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,200 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	89.2	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	83.4	1.3
– Net Position:	-31,200	26,345	4,855
– Gross Longs:	37,113	406,070	10,977
– Gross Shorts:	68,313	379,725	6,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	63.5	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.3	-1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

07 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (12,221 contracts) with Lean Hogs (10,520 contracts), Soybeans (7,453 contracts), Cotton (3,311 contracts), Live Cattle (3,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,862 contracts) and Corn (359 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,345 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,665 contracts), Coffee (-3,886 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,570 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Coffee (91 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (84 percent), Soybean Oil (56 percent) and Corn (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Cotton (22 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Wheat (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (32.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.3 percent)
Coffee (90.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybeans (23.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (56.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (91.8 percent)
Cotton (21.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (47.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.5 percent)
Wheat (28.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.7 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (33 percent) and Live Cattle (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-35 percent), Soybean Oil (-23 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (-1.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Coffee (0.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-42.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-40.1 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.7 percent)
Cotton (-4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.7 percent)
Wheat (-35.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 137,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	53.1	10.5
– Net Position:	137,228	-101,968	-35,260
– Gross Longs:	404,920	711,737	125,015
– Gross Shorts:	267,692	813,705	160,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	49.0	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-17.1	12.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	50.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	62.7	6.0
– Net Position:	88,315	-108,348	20,033
– Gross Longs:	228,964	449,489	73,180
– Gross Shorts:	140,649	557,837	53,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	65.3	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	6.1	-21.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.6	35.1	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	69.6	2.9
– Net Position:	66,727	-69,817	3,090
– Gross Longs:	78,015	70,936	9,014
– Gross Shorts:	11,288	140,753	5,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.9	8.7	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-0.2	-3.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -98,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.2	56.4	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	43.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-98,484	115,653	-17,169
– Gross Longs:	158,897	520,431	49,744
– Gross Shorts:	257,381	404,778	66,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	77.3	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.4	6.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	53.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	59.4	4.7
– Net Position:	26,828	-32,252	5,424
– Gross Longs:	138,699	303,490	32,253
– Gross Shorts:	111,871	335,742	26,829
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.1	47.0	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	22.8	-15.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	45.9	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	44.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-33,970	11,231	22,739
– Gross Longs:	132,664	277,159	55,879
– Gross Shorts:	166,634	265,928	33,140
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.5	82.2	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-42.0	40.8	-2.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 97,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.4	31.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.6	13.7
– Net Position:	97,044	-72,727	-24,317
– Gross Longs:	163,456	109,258	24,090
– Gross Shorts:	66,412	181,985	48,407
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	33.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.2	-26.3	-9.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.0	28.0	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	50.5	8.9
– Net Position:	91,759	-82,933	-8,826
– Gross Longs:	180,550	103,197	23,829
– Gross Shorts:	88,791	186,130	32,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	39.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.1	-33.8	-12.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	46.3	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.7	40.4	5.6
– Net Position:	-13,590	13,602	-12
– Gross Longs:	59,802	107,282	12,854
– Gross Shorts:	73,392	93,680	12,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	78.2	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	4.3	-4.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	35.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	69.4	4.1
– Net Position:	37,165	-43,594	6,429
– Gross Longs:	56,340	46,774	11,738
– Gross Shorts:	19,175	90,368	5,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.9	49.3	66.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	3.1	6.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	38.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	22.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-61,537	66,335	-4,798
– Gross Longs:	125,216	162,383	29,486
– Gross Shorts:	186,753	96,048	34,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	74.1	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	35.2	3.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

06 Dec

OPEC+ countries postponed production cuts until spring. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly lowered the cash reserve ratio

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down 0.55% at Thursday’s close, the S&P500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.31%. Liquidation of long positions and profit-taking before Friday’s release of the monthly payroll report negatively impacted stocks. In addition, hawkish comments from San Francisco Fed President Daly on Wednesday evening weighed on stocks when she stated that the Fed has “no sense of urgency” to cut interest rates.

Economic news out of the US on Thursday was mixed for stocks. Weekly initial jobless claims rose by 9,000 to a 6-week high of 224,000, indicating a weaker labor market than expected at 215,000. The US trade deficit for October narrowed to $73.8 billion from $83.8 billion in September, better than expectations of $75.0 billion and a positive for Q4 GDP.

Equity markets in Europe rallied on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.63%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.37%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.57%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.16% yesterday. Eurozone retail sales for October fell by 0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 4 months. S&P’s German Construction PMI for November fell 2.2 to 38.0, the steepest decline in 7 months. German factory orders for October fell by 1.5% m/m, which was a smaller decline than expectations of 2.0% m/m. In France, markets remained stable despite political turmoil.

The World Gold Council reported that China, a major gold consumer, saw a decline in physical demand in 2024 while investment remained strong. The council also forecast that both sectors could stabilize, with demand for gold jewelry likely to increase and gold investment likely to slow in 2025.

WTI crude oil prices extended their recent decline to around $68 a barrel on Friday as OPEC+’s decision to postpone restoring halted production failed to lift market sentiment amid expectations of oversupply next year. On Thursday, the producer group postponed a supply increase for another three months, gradually increasing in April and gradually cutting output over 18 months at a slower pace than originally planned. Experts believe that oil will show moderate growth over the next week after a sharp drop in the previous week.

Asian markets traded without any dynamics. Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.61%, Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.92%, and Australian ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.15% yesterday.

The offshore yuan held steady at 7.26 per dollar, supported by rising expectations of potential additional stimulus measures from the Chinese authorities during key policy meetings in mid-December, notably the Politburo meeting and the annual Central Economic Work Conference. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley forecast a 40 bps cut in the Chinese central bank’s main discount rate in 2025, which would be the largest interest rate cut in a decade.

The Australian dollar fell as low as $0.643 on Friday, nearing four-month lows, as disappointing economic growth data fueled speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may take a softer stance at next week’s monetary policy meeting.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 50 basis points to 4.0%, the first cut since April 2020. The RBI governor said the decision was in line with the central bank’s neutral policy, reflecting a balanced approach to liquidity management while ensuring economic stability. India’s GDP growth slowed to 5.4% year-on-year in September 2024 from 6.7% in the previous quarter, the weakest since December 2022. At the same time, annual inflation rose to 6.21% in October 2024, the highest in 14 months, and exceeded the central bank’s upper tolerance limit of 6% for the first time in a year.

Vietnam’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.77% in November 2024, down from 2.89% in the previous month. The decline was mainly due to softening inflation on food and catering services. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile goods, rose to a seven-month high of 2.77%, up from 2.68% in October.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,075.11 −11.38 (−0.19%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,765.71 −248.33 (−0.55%)

DAX (DE40) 20,358.80 +126.66 (+0.63%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,349.38 +13.57 (+0.16%)

USD index 105.83 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2024.12.06

German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

06 Dec

Week Ahead: Central banks galore

By ForexTime

ECB, BoC, SNB expected to CUT interest rates

RBA seen leaving rates unchanged

EU50: Over past year ECB triggered moves of ↑ 1.1% & ↓ 0.6%

USDCAD near 4 year high, ↑ 6% YTD

AU200 & USDCHF on breakout watch

Central bank decisions could spark fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

The European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Canada (BoC), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) will be under the spotlight.

These high-impact events will be complemented with inflation data from the United States and Europe’s largest economy among others:

Monday, 9th December

CN50: China PPI, CPI
JP225: Japan GDP, current account
TWN: Taiwan trade

Tuesday, 10th December

AU200: RBA rate decision
CN50: China trade
GER40: Germany CPI
ZAR: South Africa manufacturing production

Wednesday, 11th December

CN50: Central Economic Work Conference
CAD: Canada rate decision
JP225: Japan PPI
ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales
USDInd: US CPI

Thursday, 12th December

AU200: Australia unemployment
EU50: ECB rate decision
CHF: SNB rate decision
US500: US initial jobless claims, PPI

Friday, 13th December

FRA40: France CPI
EUR: Eurozone industrial production
JP225: Japan industrial production, Tankan index
NZD: Manufacturing PMI
UK100: UK industrial production

Here are 4 assets that could be impacted by key 4 bank announcements:

1) RBA meeting: AU200

FXTM’s AU200 could be influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision.

Note: This index tracks the underlying ASX 200 Index

Markets widely expect the central bank to leave rates unchanged at its meeting on 10th December.

Cooling inflation may keep RBA doves at bay, but weak economic growth could support the argument for rate cuts in 2025.

Traders are pricing in a 58% probability of a 25 bp RBA cut by February 2025 with a move fully priced in by April 2025.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the RBA decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.8%, or as much as 0.1% declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the charts, key levels of interest can be found at 8533.6, 21-day and 50-day SMA.

au200

2) BoC meeting: USDCAD

The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25 or 50 bps at its meeting on 11th December.

This is based on weak economic growth and rising inflation which hit 2% in October.

Traders are currently pricing in an 85% probability of a 50-basis point BoC cut in December.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the BoC decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.3%, or as much as 0.2% in declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the charts, the USDCAD remains bullish and is trading near 4-year highs. Should the BOC move ahead with a jumbo-sized rate cut, this could push the USDCAD to fresh 4-year highs beyond 1.4178.

*This was published before the US jobs report on Friday 6th December.

3) ECB meeting: EU50

The ECB will likely cut interest rates by 25 bps at its next meeting on December 12th.

With political risk and Trump’s tariff threats threatening the growth outlook, Lagarde is expected to strike a dovish note – signaling further rate cuts in 2025.

Traders have fully priced in a 25 bps move by December with another rate cut expected by January 2025.

Bets around lower EU rates could support FXTM’s EU50 which tracks the Euro Stoxx 50 index. As of writing, the index has gained almost 10% YTD.

Prices are pushing higher on the daily charts with the next key level of interest at 5000.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the ECB decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.1%, or as much as 0.6% in declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

eu50

4) SNB meeting: USDCHF

The Swiss National Bank is expected to cut interest rates at its meeting on 12th December. But markets are divided on whether it will be a 25 or 50 bp cut.

With the economy under pressure and exposed to political risk, more rate cuts could be on the cards.

Traders are pricing in a 45% probability of a 50-bps cut by December.

Note: Over the past 12 months, the SNB decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.1%, or as much as 0.4% in declines in a 6-hour window post-release.

Looking at the charts, the USDCHF is under pressure on the daily charts with resistance below the 200-day SMA. Key levels of interest can be found at 0.8900, 0.8850 and 0.8715.

usdhcf

*This was published before the US jobs report on Friday 6th December.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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