InvestMacro

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (44,848 contracts) with Wheat (9,200 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,098 contracts), Soybeans (4,031 contracts), Coffee (1,649 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,428 contracts) and Cocoa (605 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-45,629 contracts), Lean Hogs (-6,566 contracts), Live Cattle (-4,553 contracts) and Cotton (-4,210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (98 percent) and Live Cattle (96 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (84 percent), Lean Hogs (82 percent) and Soybean Oil (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent), Soybean Meal (16 percent) and Wheat (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (83.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (78.2 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (14.7 percent)
Coffee (98.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (96.7 percent)
Soybeans (50.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (50.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (62.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.1 percent)
Live Cattle (95.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (81.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (87.0 percent)
Cotton (4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.0 percent)
Cocoa (48.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.6 percent)
Wheat (19.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (11.9 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Corn (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (15 percent) and Coffee (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-17 percent), Cotton (-14 percent) and Wheat (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (21.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.8 percent)
Sugar (-41.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-23.8 percent)
Coffee (11.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (5.8 percent)
Soybeans (24.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.6 percent)
Live Cattle (15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-16.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-14.9 percent)
Cocoa (0.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.3 percent)
Wheat (-10.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 392,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 44,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 348,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	41.7	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	57.9	10.2
– Net Position:	392,923	-314,101	-78,822
– Gross Longs:	587,335	810,136	120,226
– Gross Shorts:	194,412	1,124,237	199,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	20.8	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-17.3	-50.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -45,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	54.3	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	50.7	7.3
– Net Position:	-31,467	34,888	-3,421
– Gross Longs:	231,219	538,361	69,175
– Gross Shorts:	262,686	503,473	72,596
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.4	40.7	-28.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	29.8	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	71.5	3.7
– Net Position:	74,291	-78,526	4,235
– Gross Longs:	83,011	56,217	11,170
– Gross Shorts:	8,720	134,743	6,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	0.3	82.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-13.0	18.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	56.7	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	55.0	8.5
– Net Position:	18,549	14,875	-33,424
– Gross Longs:	187,255	484,417	39,381
– Gross Shorts:	168,706	469,542	72,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.9	52.4	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-21.7	-44.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 38,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,098 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	55.5	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	62.5	5.0
– Net Position:	38,501	-39,732	1,231
– Gross Longs:	123,527	311,698	29,376
– Gross Shorts:	85,026	351,430	28,145
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	43.3	18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	5.4	-25.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -28,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	49.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	48.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-28,598	9,974	18,624
– Gross Longs:	99,189	282,710	50,002
– Gross Shorts:	127,787	272,736	31,378
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	81.7	39.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	2.0	-25.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 118,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,285 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	28.3	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	52.3	14.5
– Net Position:	118,732	-90,810	-27,922
– Gross Longs:	192,157	107,106	26,966
– Gross Shorts:	73,425	197,916	54,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	11.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-15.6	-10.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 69,976 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	32.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	53.9	9.4
– Net Position:	69,976	-63,497	-6,479
– Gross Longs:	126,358	99,831	22,147
– Gross Shorts:	56,382	163,328	28,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.9	16.6	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.6	14.0	31.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,741 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	48.9	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	34.7	5.1
– Net Position:	-39,951	38,335	1,616
– Gross Longs:	66,257	131,973	15,453
– Gross Shorts:	106,208	93,638	13,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	93.5	26.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	11.7	9.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,465 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	37.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	73.0	4.1
– Net Position:	37,465	-44,243	6,778
– Gross Longs:	50,408	46,552	11,924
– Gross Shorts:	12,943	90,795	5,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	48.6	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.6	1.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,200 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	33.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	19.2	6.6
– Net Position:	-73,009	68,865	4,144
– Gross Longs:	138,911	159,618	35,248
– Gross Shorts:	211,920	90,753	31,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	76.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	3.7	50.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

26 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by Nasdaq & DowJones Minis

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (7,955 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (881 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (60 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-45,173 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-19,932 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-4,166 contracts) and with the VIX (-1,330 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (71 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (68 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Russell-Mini (68 percent) and DowJones-Mini (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (70.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (60.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (64.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (67.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (55.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (81.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (56.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (42.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (48.1 percent)

VIX tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-17 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (15.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (5.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (1.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (11.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-14.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-26.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-29.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (7.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-3.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-17.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (5.4 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	45.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	38.4	10.6
– Net Position:	-28,060	25,429	2,631
– Gross Longs:	65,618	165,576	41,409
– Gross Shorts:	93,678	140,147	38,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	29.6	88.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-17.3	13.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -75,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -45,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	71.4	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	74.4	7.0
– Net Position:	-75,715	-60,433	136,148
– Gross Longs:	263,815	1,453,774	279,487
– Gross Shorts:	339,530	1,514,207	143,339
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	26.5	91.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	0.9	-5.5

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	65.1	17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	71.9	13.6
– Net Position:	2,327	-5,564	3,237
– Gross Longs:	13,377	53,190	14,317
– Gross Shorts:	11,050	58,754	11,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	30.2	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	15.6	-11.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	53.2	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	67.6	10.1
– Net Position:	18,489	-36,654	18,165
– Gross Longs:	71,503	135,402	43,768
– Gross Shorts:	53,014	172,056	25,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	14.2	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	14.2	7.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,027 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -19,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	76.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	76.1	4.3
– Net Position:	-21,027	2,547	18,480
– Gross Longs:	50,530	334,235	37,263
– Gross Shorts:	71,557	331,688	18,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.6	25.5	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.9	16.5	-22.6

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 60 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	70.2	21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	45.3	20.7
– Net Position:	-2,758	2,709	49
– Gross Longs:	937	7,647	2,305
– Gross Shorts:	3,695	4,938	2,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	45.4	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	20.3	-40.5

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,191 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,025 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	88.2	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	81.8	1.8
– Net Position:	-31,191	27,899	3,292
– Gross Longs:	37,252	384,146	11,192
– Gross Shorts:	68,443	356,247	7,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.7	59.7	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	18.4	-10.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

24 Jan

Oil continues to fall in price. The Australian dollar reached the maximum for 5 weeks

By JustMarkets

By the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added more than 400 points and closed positive 0.92%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.53% and hit a new record high, breaking the 6,100 mark. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.22%. Favorable corporate earnings results supported the overall market on Thursday. General Electric (GE) closed higher by more than 6% after reporting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share and announcing $7 billion in share repurchase plans. Moderna (MRNA) shares rose more than 10% and led the S&P 500 higher, adding to a 7% rally Wednesday after Oracle CEO Ellison spoke about the promise of artificial intelligence in early cancer diagnosis and the development of cancer vaccines. Netflix (NFLX) shares closed higher by more than 3% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to “outperform” from “perform” with a price target of $1,100. Electronic Arts (EA) fell more than 16% and topped the list of losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company reported preliminary third-quarter net revenues of $2.22 billion, weaker than consensus of $2.51 billion, and lowered its full-year net revenue guidance.

President Donald Trump reiterated in Davos his previous promises of tax cuts, tariffs on trading partners and increased energy production, and called on the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to cut interest rates. As for economic data, weekly US initial jobless claims rose 6,000 to a 6-week high of 223,000, indicating a weaker labor market than expected at 220,000.

The Mexican peso (USD/MXN) exchange rate rose to 20.4 per USD as the latest inflation data bolstered hawkish arguments from Bank of Mexico officials, dampening expectations of further monetary policy easing. While Mexico’s annual core inflation fell to 3.69% in mid-January, the lowest in four years, core inflation rebounded to 3.72%, beating estimates of 3.68%, signaling continued price pressures.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.74%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.70%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.92%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.23%. In Europe, Puma shares fell about 20% after the German sportswear brand reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and lower annual profit, missing its 2024 earnings target.

The Bank of Norway decided to leave the discount rate at 4.5% on January 22, matching market expectations, but the head of Norges Bank said a rate cut is possible in March. Unemployment has risen slightly, but inflation is close to target. Although inflation is lower than expected, rising business costs may spur it again.

WTI crude oil fell to $74 a barrel on Thursday as President Donald Trump delivered a virtual speech at the Davos forum. In his speech, Trump announced plans to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, emphasizing his administration’s energy priorities. Meanwhile, crude inventories fell by 1.02 million barrels, below market consensus that expected a 2.1 million barrel decline, and extended a 2 million barrel drop from the previous week.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.79%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.64%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.61%.

S&P Global’s Australian manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in January 2025 from 47.8 in December, according to flash data. This is the highest reading in 12 months, following 13 consecutive months of contraction. The index of business activity in the services sector fell to 50.4 in January 2025 from 50.8 in December 2024, according to flash data. That’s the lowest reading in six months, suggesting the sector’s growth is slowing. The Australian dollar climbed above $0.63 on Friday, hitting a five-week high after US President Donald Trump said after speaking with Chinese President Xi Jinping that he would prefer to strike a trade deal with China rather than impose tariffs. Given the close economic ties between Australia and China, it could have a significant impact on Australian markets. Trump also called on the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,118.71 +32.34 (+0.53%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,565.07 +408.34 (+0.92%)

DAX (DE40) 21,411.53 +157.26 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,565.20 +20.07 (+0.23%)

USD Index 108.13 -0.04 (-0.04%)

News feed for: 2025.01.24

Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
Japan BOJ Policy Rate at 05:00 (GMT+2);
Japan Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
Japan BOJ Outlook Report at 05:00 (GMT+2);
German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 5).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

24 Jan

Week Ahead: Big Tech back in the spotlight

By ForexTime

4 of “Magnificent 7” tech companies set to publish earnings

Combined market cap of 4 tech titans over $9.5 trillion

Meta could move over 7% ↑ or ↓ post-earnings

Apple second largest company in the world reports results Thursday

Beyond earnings, central banks & Trump in focus

Major central bank decisions and earnings from the largest companies in the world will dominate the week ahead:

Monday, 27th Jan

CN50: China industrial profits, manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
GER40: Germany IFO business climate
EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
SG20: Singapore unemployment

Tuesday, 28th Jan

USDInd: US consumer confidence, durable goods
US30: Boeing earnings

Wednesday, 29th Jan

AU200: Australia CPI
EU50: ASML earnings
CAD: Canada rate decision
SEK: Sweden rate decision
US500: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta earnings, Fed rate decision

Thursday, 30th Jan

EUR: ECB rate decision, consumer confidence, unemployment, GDP
GER40: Germany GDP
ZAR: South Africa rate decision
USDInd: US GDP, jobless claims
NAS100: Apple earnings

Friday, 31st Jan

GER40: Germany CPI, unemployment
JP225: Japan unemployment, Tokyo CPI, industrial production, retail sales
RUS2000: US personal income & spending, PCE inflation

Big tech earnings may hijack the headlines with the likes of Tesla, Microsoft, Meta and Apple set to reveal their latest quarterly results.

These major players with a combined market cap of over $9.5 trillion could provide fresh insights into how the industry fared last quarter.

Artificial intelligence is still a hot topic, but investors should consider a new variable President Trump. Whether it’s tougher tariffs or softer regulations, Trump is bound to influence big tech over the next four years.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Microsoft

Microsoft reports its fiscal second-quarter earnings on Wednesday 29th after US markets close.

Its shares are up 6% year-to-date, adding to the 12% gains secured in 2024. Microsoft has invested tens of billions of dollars into AI, but investors have yet to see the returns expected. So, the tech giant has little room for error with exceptional results required to justify its $3.32 trillion valuation. Much focus will be on the Azure side of the business which is likely to remain the driver of growth.

Markets forecast a 3.6% move, either up or down, for Microsoft stocks post-earnings.

microsoft

2) Meta

Meta is set to report fourth-quarter earnings after US markets close on Wednesday 29th.

Shares of the tech company have gained 9% this year, trading very close to all-time highs. Markets expect a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenue growth, but all eyes will be on the advertising business. Any insight into how the TikTok ban in the US will impact Meta’s ad sales and updates on Llama 4 will be welcomed by investors.

Markets are forecasting a 7.4% move, either up or down, for Meta stocks post-earnings.

meta2

3) Tesla

Tesla is also set to release its fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday after the close of US trading.

A few weeks ago, Tesla reported its first decline in annual deliveries which hit sentiment toward its shares. Prices are up only 2% year-to-date, adding to the 62.5% gains secured in 2024. Any updates on the autonomous driving software, new vehicle launches, and revenues will be perused by investors to evaluate its business outlook.

Markets are forecasting an 8.2% move, either up or down, for Tesla stocks post-earnings.

tesla

4) Apple

The second most valuable company in the world with a market cap of $3.36 trillion reports its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday 30th after US markets close.

Apple kicked off 2025 in a rough fashion, falling over 10% YTD amid growing concerns over lagging sales. Still, first-quarter revenues are expected to rise 3.8% year-on-year to $124.2 billion compared to $119.6 billion in the same quarter last year.

Nevertheless, investors will keep their eyes on the performance of iPhone sales and any initiatives integrating AI across its ecosystem.

Markets are projecting a 4% move, either up or down, for Apple stocks post-earnings.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News

24 Jan

Japanese Yen Strengthens as Interest Rate Reaches Highest Level Since 2008

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair declined to 155.13 on Friday, as the yen gained robust support following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to raise its interest rate during the January meeting.

BoJ’s interest rate hike and economic outlook

The BoJ increased the cost of borrowing by 25 basis points, bringing the benchmark interest rate to 0.5% per annum. This marks the highest rate in Japan since the 2008 global financial crisis, with monetary policymakers voting 8 to 1 in favour of the decision.

The central bank views Japan’s economic recovery as moderate and aligned with forecasts, estimating potential GDP growth at 0.5%. Additionally, the BoJ noted encouraging signs from companies, with many planning to offer substantial wage increases during spring negotiations. This development is seen as a positive factor for stabilising inflation, which remains a key focus for the BoJ.

However, the central bank expressed concern about rising import prices caused by the weak yen and increasing rice prices. Despite the interest rate hike, real rates in Japan remain deeply negative; however, conditions seem favourable for a shift into positive territory.

The BoJ is expected to maintain the current interest rate at its March meeting. For now, the central bank has fulfilled its immediate goals, and policymakers will assess the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY experienced a pullback from 156.56 and continues to develop a downward wave targeting 154.20. After reaching this level, there is potential for a corrective growth wave back to 156.56. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below the zero mark and sharply downwards, confirming the bearish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is currently in the middle of a fifth wave of decline, with a target of 154.20. The market is forming a compact consolidation range near 155.55. A downward breakout from this range would likely lead to further declines to 154.20. After reaching this level, a corrective wave to 156.56 (a test from below) is possible. Looking further ahead, the development of a continued downward wave towards 153.20 is also possible. The Stochastic oscillator supports this USD/JPY forecast, with its signal line below 20 and pointing strongly downwards, reinforcing expectations of further bearish movement.

Conclusion

The Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike has provided substantial support to the yen, with USD/JPY trending lower as the market absorbs the decision. While the BoJ is expected to hold rates steady in the near term, its actions have set the stage for further currency strength. Technically, the pair remains in a downtrend, with immediate targets at 154.20 and 153.20. Investors will closely monitor Japan’s inflation dynamics, wage negotiations, and import price trends for additional cues on the yen’s trajectory.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

23 Jan

I’m an economist. Here’s why I’m worried the California insurance crisis could trigger broader financial instability

By Gary W. Yohe, Wesleyan University

The devastating wildfires in Los Angeles have made one threat very clear: Climate change is undermining the insurance systems American homeowners rely on to protect themselves from catastrophes. This breakdown is starting to become painfully clear as families and communities struggle to rebuild.

But another threat remains less recognized: This collapse could pose a threat to the stability of financial markets well beyond the scope of the fires.

It’s been widely accepted for more than a decade that humanity has three choices when it comes to responding to climate risks: adapt, abate or suffer. As an expert in economics and the environment, I know that some degree of suffering is inevitable — after all, humans have already raised the average global temperature by 1.6 degrees Celsius, or 2.9 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s why it’s so important to have functioning insurance markets.

While insurance companies are often cast as villains, when the system works well, insurers play an important role in improving social welfare. When an insurer sets premiums that accurately reflect and communicate risk — what economists call “actuarially fair insurance” — that helps people share risk efficiently, leaving every individual safer and society better off.

But the scale and intensity of the Southern California fires — linked in part to climate change, including record-high global temperatures in 2023 and again in 2024 — has brought a big problem into focus: In a world impacted by increasing climate risk, traditional insurance models no longer apply.

How climate change broke insurance

Historically, the insurance system has worked by relying on experts who study records of past events to estimate how likely it is that a covered event might happen. They then use this information to determine how much to charge a given policyholder. This is called “pricing the risk.”

Many California wildfire survivors face insurance struggles, as this CBS Evening News report shows.

When Americans try to borrow money to buy a home, they expect that mortgage lenders will make them purchase and maintain a certain level of homeowners insurance coverage, even if they chose to self-insure against unlikely additional losses. But thanks to climate change, risks are increasingly difficult to measure, and costs are increasingly catastrophic. It seems clear to me that a new paradigm is needed.

California provided the beginnings of such a paradigm with its Fair Access to Insurance program, known as FAIR. When it was created in 1968, its authors expected that it would provide insurance coverage for the few owners who were unable to get normal policies because they faced special risks from exposure to unusual weather and local climates.

But the program’s coverage is capped at US$500,000 per property – well below the losses that thousands of Los Angeles residents are experiencing right now. Total losses from the wildfires’ first week alone are estimated to exceed $250 billion.

How insurance could break the economy

This state of affairs isn’t just dangerous for homeowners and communities — it could create widespread financial instability. And it’s not just me making this point. For the past several years, central bankers at home and abroad have raised similar concerns. So let’s talk about the risks of large-scale financial contagion.

Anyone who remembers the Great Recession of 2007-2009 knows that seemingly localized problems can snowball.

In that event, the value of opaque bundles of real estate derivatives collapsed from artificial and unsustainable highs, leaving millions of mortgages around the U.S. “underwater.” These properties were no longer valued above owners’ mortgage liabilities, so their best choice was simply to walk away from the obligation to make their monthly payments.

Lenders were forced to foreclose, often at an enormous loss, and the collapse of real estate markets across the U.S. created a global recession that affected financial stability around the world.

Forewarned by that experience, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board wrote in 2020 that “features of climate change can also increase financial system vulnerabilities.” The central bank noted that uncertainty and disagreement about climate risks can lead to sudden declines in asset values, leaving people and businesses vulnerable.

At that time, the Fed had a specific climate-based example of a not-implausible contagion in mind – global risks from sudden large increases in global sea level rise over something like 20 years. A collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could create such an event, and coastlines around the world would not have enough time to adapt.

In a 2020 press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discusses climate change and financial stability.

The Fed now has another scenario to consider – one that’s not hypothetical.

It recently put U.S. banks through “stress tests” to gauge their vulnerability to climate risks. In these exercises, the Fed asked member banks to respond to hypothetical but not-implausible climate-based contagion scenarios that would threaten the stability of the entire system.

We will now see if the plans borne of those stress tests can work in the face of enormous wildfires burning throughout an urban area that’s also a financial, cultural and entertainment center of the world.

About the Author:

Gary W. Yohe, Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Wesleyan University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

23 Jan

Oil down 4 consecutive sessions since Trump’s inauguration. Natural gas prices rise again due to cold weather

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.30% at Wednesday’s close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.61%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 1.33%. US stocks closed solidly higher yesterday, helped by strong earnings and promising corporate developments while markets assessed the implications of President Trump’s policy changes. Netflix rose by 9.7% after reporting a record increase in new subscribers. Additionally, Procter & Gamble shares added 1.9% on strong quarterly results. Oracle increased by 6.7%, delivering a nearly 20% weekly gain after announcing a joint venture with SoftBank and OpenAI related to a $500 billion artificial intelligence investment initiative. Nvidia rose by 4.4% and Microsoft added 4.1%, joining the broader technology rally.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.01%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.86%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.37%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.04%. On Wednesday, the DAX Index closed above a new record high of 21,259, posting its eighth consecutive session of gains and outperforming its European peers. The index was boosted by strong earnings from Adidas and optimism about large-scale investments in artificial intelligence. In Davos, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned Europe to anticipate possible changes in US trade policy, including selective tariffs under President Trump. She advocated economic reforms, supported the ECB’s cautious approach to lowering interest rates and cited energy prices as the main inflationary problem.

WTI crude prices fell to as low as $75 a barrel on Thursday, retreating for a fifth straight session after an industry report showed a new rise in US crude inventories. API data showed a 1 million barrel increase in crude inventories last week, the first rise after five weeks of declines. Traders also continued to assess the potential impact on energy markets of President Trump’s proposed tariffs on China, the European Union, Canada and Mexico, as well as warnings of sanctions on Russia if President Putin does not work to end the war in Ukraine.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices rose to $3.9/MMBtu as cold temperatures led to record demand. On January 21, the coldest day in five years, heating demand surged, pushing spot gas and electricity prices to multi-year highs. Analysts expect energy companies to draw more than 200 billion cubic feet of gas from storage for two consecutive weeks, reversing a small inventory surplus compared with the five-year average.

South African inflation rose slightly to 3% in December 2024, up from 2.9% in November, but below the 3.2% projection. This rate remains well below the Reserve Bank of South Africa’s preferred average target of 4.5%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile categories such as food, soft drinks, fuel and energy, fell to 3.6% in December 2024, the lowest since February 2022, down from 3.7% in November.

Asian markets traded without a single dynamic yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 1.58%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 1.48%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.63%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.33%.

Singapore’s annualized inflation rate for December 2024 was 1.6%, unchanged from the previous month and above market expectations of 1.5%. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate fell to 1.8%, the lowest in three years, down from a 1.9% rise in November but above market estimates of a 1.7% rise.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,086.37 +37.13 (+0.61%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,156.73 +130.92 (+0.30%)

DAX (DE40) 21,254.27 +212.27 (+1.01%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,545.13 +3.16 (+0.04%)

USD Index 108.25 (+0.17%)

News feed for: 2025.01.23

Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
Singapore Inflation Rate at 07:00 (GMT+2);
Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+2);
Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 4).

By JustMarkets

Energy Financial News

22 Jan

Knowing less about AI makes people more open to having it in their lives – new research

By Chiara Longoni, Bocconi University; Gil Appel, George Washington University, and Stephanie Tully, University of Southern California

The rapid spread of artificial intelligence has people wondering: who’s most likely to embrace AI in their daily lives? Many assume it’s the tech-savvy – those who understand how AI works – who are most eager to adopt it.

Surprisingly, our new research (published in the Journal of Marketing) finds the opposite. People with less knowledge about AI are actually more open to using the technology. We call this difference in adoption propensity the “lower literacy-higher receptivity” link.

This link shows up across different groups, settings and even countries. For instance, our analysis of data from market research company Ipsos spanning 27 countries reveals that people in nations with lower average AI literacy are more receptive towards AI adoption than those in nations with higher literacy.

Similarly, our survey of US undergraduate students finds that those with less understanding of AI are more likely to indicate using it for tasks like academic assignments.

The reason behind this link lies in how AI now performs tasks we once thought only humans could do. When AI creates a piece of art, writes a heartfelt response or plays a musical instrument, it can feel almost magical – like it’s crossing into human territory.

Of course, AI doesn’t actually possess human qualities. A chatbot might generate an empathetic response, but it doesn’t feel empathy. People with more technical knowledge about AI understand this.

They know how algorithms (sets of mathematical rules used by computers to carry out particular tasks), training data (used to improve how an AI system works) and computational models operate. This makes the technology less mysterious.

On the other hand, those with less understanding may see AI as magical and awe inspiring. We suggest this sense of magic makes them more open to using AI tools.

Our studies show this lower literacy-higher receptivity link is strongest for using AI tools in areas people associate with human traits, like providing emotional support or counselling. When it comes to tasks that don’t evoke the same sense of human-like qualities – such as analysing test results – the pattern flips. People with higher AI literacy are more receptive to these uses because they focus on AI’s efficiency, rather than any “magical” qualities.

It’s not about capability, fear or ethics

Interestingly, this link between lower literacy and higher receptivity persists even though people with lower AI literacy are more likely to view AI as less capable, less ethical, and even a bit scary. Their openness to AI seems to stem from their sense of wonder about what it can do, despite these perceived drawbacks.

This finding offers new insights into why people respond so differently to emerging technologies. Some studies suggest consumers favour new tech, a phenomenon called “algorithm appreciation”, while others show scepticism, or “algorithm aversion”. Our research points to perceptions of AI’s “magicalness” as a key factor shaping these reactions.

These insights pose a challenge for policymakers and educators. Efforts to boost AI literacy might unintentionally dampen people’s enthusiasm for using AI by making it seem less magical. This creates a tricky balance between helping people understand AI and keeping them open to its adoption.

To make the most of AI’s potential, businesses, educators and policymakers need to strike this balance. By understanding how perceptions of “magicalness” shape people’s openness to AI, we can help develop and deploy new AI-based products and services that take the way people view AI into account, and help them understand the benefits and risks of AI.

And ideally, this will happen without causing a loss of the awe that inspires many people to embrace this new technology.

About the Author:

Chiara Longoni, Associate Professor, Marketing and Social Science, Bocconi University; Gil Appel, Assistant Professor of Marketing, School of Business, George Washington University, and Stephanie Tully, Associate Professor of Marketing, USC Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming

22 Jan

The threat of tariffs by the US against Mexico, Canada, and China is adding uncertainty to financial markets

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 1.24%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.88%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.58%. Yesterday, on his first day in office, Trump took a number of steps to advance his agenda, but refrained from immediately imposing tariffs as many expected. However, he later revealed plans to impose a 25% levy on Mexico and Canada, while avoiding mentioning China. First and foremost, the move would put pressure on the peso by depriving Mexican manufacturing, especially the auto sector, of a major source of demand, which could force the Bank of Mexico to accelerate rate cuts. Second, these tariffs will significantly reduce demand for Canada’s largest exports, which will reduce dollar inflows. Further pressure comes from Trump’s emphasis on increasing domestic energy production in the US, which could reduce Canadian energy exports, forcing producers to lower selling prices.

Canada’s annualized inflation rate for December 2024 fell to 1.8% from 1.9% in the previous month, slightly below market expectations, which had expected it to remain at 1.9%, and marked the lowest rate of price increases since September. As a result, inflation remained at or below the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) 2% average target for the fifth consecutive month, reinforcing expectations for further rate cuts this year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.25%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.48%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.14%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.33%. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator for Germany fell to 10.3 in January 2025 from 15.7 in December and well below the projection of 15.3 as the German economy contracted for the second consecutive year in 2024 and inflationary pressures are rising. If these trends continue this year, Germany will fall further and further behind other eurozone countries. In addition, political uncertainty is increasing due to the potentially difficult coalition-building process in Germany and the unpredictability of economic policies implemented by the new Trump administration.

Silver (XAG/USD) rose to $31 an ounce on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in six weeks, as US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats fueled demand for safe-haven assets. Silver is also supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which could weaken the dollar and boost demand for commodities.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.32%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.91% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.66%. Chinese stocks opened lower on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said his team is discussing imposing 10% tariffs on goods imported from China, which could take effect as early as February 1. Trump’s comments overshadowed more positive developments Friday, when he held a friendly phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. At the World Economic Forum, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang emphasized that there are no winners in the trade war and called for greater international economic cooperation.

Hong Kong’s annualized inflation rate stood at 1.4% in December 2024, unchanged for the third consecutive month and the lowest since May. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 0.1% in December after stalling in the previous month.

Malaysia’s annualized inflation rate for December 2024 was 1.7%, slightly below market consensus and November’s 1.8%. Core consumer prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative costs, were 1.6% y/y in December, the lowest since January 2022.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.565 on Wednesday as investors priced in the country’s latest inflation data. New Zealand’s annualized inflation rate for the fourth quarter of 2024 remained at 2%, slightly higher than expected but still within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) target range of 1-3%. On a quarterly basis, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5%, down slightly from a 0.6% increase in the previous period. The data suggests that price pressures remain largely subdued, reinforcing expectations of a 50bp rate cut at the Central Bank’s February meeting.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,049.24 +52.58 (+0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,025.81 +537.98 (+1.24%)

DAX (DE40) 21,042.00 +51.69 (+0.25%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,548.29 +27.75 (+0.33%)

USD Index 108.01 −1.34 (−1.23%)

News feed for: 2025.01.22

Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speech at 17:15 (GMT+2);
World Economic Forum Annual Meeting (Day 3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Jan

Gold Reaches 11-Month High as Global Demand for Safe Assets Surges

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices surged to an 11-month high, reaching 2,750 USD per troy ounce, a level last seen in November of the previous year. The metal’s rally reflects heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating global trade tensions and a weakening US dollar.

Drivers of Gold’s rise

The growing appetite for Gold comes as fears of global ‘trade wars’ intensify. Investors seek refuge in safe assets following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of plans to overhaul the country’s tariff policies. The uncertainty surrounding potential escalations with Canada, Mexico, and China has rattled markets. The market eagerly awaits updates on these developments, but for now, the environment is ripe for Gold’s continued appeal.

In addition, Trump recently vowed to impose tariffs on the EU, though specifics remain unclear. The move is perceived as a potential tool for political leverage, raising further risks for global capital markets.

Another factor to watch is US inflation. Trump’s policies were initially expected to drive inflation, which supported the Federal Reserve’s elevated interest rates. While this would typically weigh on Gold, much will depend on the details of forthcoming economic measures.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD formed a consolidation range around 2,689 USD before breaking out upwards to 2,724 USD. After testing 2,689 USD from above, the market resumed its upward movement, breaking through 2,724 USD and advancing towards the next target of 2,761 USD. A correction back to 2,689 USD remains possible in the future. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above the zero level and trending strongly upwards, reflecting bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 2,724 USD before breaking upwards to continue its growth wave. The immediate target is 2,761 USD and is expected to be reached soon. After hitting this level, a downward wave back to 2,724 USD could emerge, potentially extending to 2,689 USD as part of a correction. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line above the 80 level but showing signs of preparing for a decline towards 20, indicating potential short-term bearish movement.

Conclusion

Gold’s rise to an 11-month high reflects its renewed safe-haven status amid escalating trade uncertainties and a softer US dollar. Technical indicators point to further gains towards 2,761 USD in the short term, though a correction to levels around 2,724 USD or 2,689 USD remains possible. Broader movements will depend on developments in US trade policy and inflation, with the market keenly focused on updates from Washington.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.