InvestMacro

Speculator Extremes: Yen, Live Cattle, Steel & Silver lead weekly Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position continues to be at the top of the extremes list and comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 22.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 125,376 net contracts (just below the recent record high) this week with a bump up by 2,412 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 94.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.4 this week. The speculator position registered 117,987 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 14,562 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,771 net contracts this week with a dip by -635 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver

The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 14.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 60,950 net contracts this week with a small decline of -1,348 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level sits at a 90.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.4 this week.

The speculator position was 40,349 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -372 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at just a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,900,087 net contracts this week with a small gain of 5,853 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.0 this week. The speculator position was -54,006 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,702 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 7.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -49,278 net contracts this week with a drop by -17,071 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Wheat speculator level is at a 11.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.1 this week. The speculator position was -82,548 net contracts this week with a reduction of -6,069 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 16.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 9.0 this week. The speculator position was -41,567 net contracts this week with a decline by -1,123 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

30 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (8,912 contracts) with Palladium (190 contracts) also seeing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-8,136 contracts), Platinum (-6,949 contracts), Silver (-1,348 contracts) and Steel (-635 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (94 percent) and Silver (93 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (75 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) and Platinum (48 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (75.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (78.2 percent)
Silver (93.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (94.9 percent)
Copper (65.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (56.7 percent)
Platinum (48.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.4 percent)
Palladium (42.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (40.7 percent)
Steel (93.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.8 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (14 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-13 percent) and Gold (-13 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-16.9 percent)
Silver (14.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.1 percent)
Copper (12.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.1 percent)
Platinum (-28.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (3.6 percent)
Palladium (-13.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-17.8 percent)
Steel (4.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 249,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 257,932 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.9	17.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	71.4	4.7
– Net Position:	249,796	-278,598	28,802
– Gross Longs:	316,572	86,838	52,852
– Gross Shorts:	66,776	365,436	24,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.1	22.0	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	11.3	12.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 60,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.5	19.0	18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	66.6	7.2
– Net Position:	60,950	-80,705	19,755
– Gross Longs:	85,712	32,304	31,951
– Gross Shorts:	24,762	113,009	12,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	5.1	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.2	-13.8	5.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 34,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,912 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	28.1	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	41.8	6.7
– Net Position:	34,104	-34,530	426
– Gross Longs:	106,085	70,815	17,306
– Gross Shorts:	71,981	105,345	16,880
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	40.7	20.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-8.4	-21.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.0	22.5	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	47.4	4.7
– Net Position:	13,558	-20,060	6,502
– Gross Longs:	48,416	18,154	10,285
– Gross Shorts:	34,858	38,214	3,783
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	48.0	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.8	19.1	57.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -8,309 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.1	44.2	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	81.5	8.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,309	7,420	889
– Gross Longs:	8,436	9,082	2,300
– Gross Shorts:	16,745	1,662	1,411
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	5.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	53.9	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.6	-1.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -635 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	59.8	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	69.1	0.4
– Net Position:	3,771	-3,869	98
– Gross Longs:	13,822	24,720	248
– Gross Shorts:	10,051	28,589	150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.9	6.8	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.9	-8.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

30 Mar

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 10-Year Bonds, Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds, Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 10-Year Bonds (71,284 contracts) with the Fed Funds (51,474 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (38,970 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (14,792 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (5,853 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2,557 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-91,338 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-25,159 contracts) and with the US Treasury Bonds (-24,765 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (71 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (70 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (24.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (31.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (24.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (71.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (70.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (80.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (55.5 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (61.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (25.8 percent)

Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (19 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bond (-29 percent) and the SOFR 1-Month (-24 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-5.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (10.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-28.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-1.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-23.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-26.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.1 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -114,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 51,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -165,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	62.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	58.4	1.6
– Net Position:	-114,010	91,500	22,510
– Gross Longs:	444,359	1,370,828	57,033
– Gross Shorts:	558,369	1,279,328	34,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	58.7	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-22.0	23.5

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -759,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -91,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -667,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	60.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	52.6	0.3
– Net Position:	-759,223	759,086	137
– Gross Longs:	1,324,572	6,048,322	27,119
– Gross Shorts:	2,083,795	5,289,236	26,982
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	78.9	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	0.9	-5.3

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -25,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	56.7	0.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	51.8	1.2
– Net Position:	-52,693	68,457	-15,764
– Gross Longs:	421,808	800,792	1,048
– Gross Shorts:	474,501	732,335	16,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	48.4	43.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	26.8	-34.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,181,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 38,970 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	75.1	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.7	47.8	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,181,586	1,059,722	121,864
– Gross Longs:	517,534	2,917,884	239,053
– Gross Shorts:	1,699,120	1,858,162	117,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.0	77.6	74.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-10.7	4.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,900,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,905,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	82.6	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	55.5	3.9
– Net Position:	-1,900,087	1,717,094	182,993
– Gross Longs:	461,359	5,232,111	432,646
– Gross Shorts:	2,361,446	3,515,017	249,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	90.8	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	-2.8	17.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -810,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 71,284 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -881,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	75.5	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	61.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-810,090	707,115	102,975
– Gross Longs:	631,125	3,715,581	453,784
– Gross Shorts:	1,441,215	3,008,466	350,809
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	65.3	84.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	0.9	14.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -84,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	73.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	67.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-84,487	122,219	-37,732
– Gross Longs:	374,731	1,672,115	219,960
– Gross Shorts:	459,218	1,549,896	257,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	10.4	86.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-4.5	8.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -24,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	71.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	75.2	7.0
– Net Position:	-38,275	-60,775	99,050
– Gross Longs:	260,000	1,312,743	227,483
– Gross Shorts:	298,275	1,373,518	128,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.1	21.3	86.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	17.1	16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -232,366 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -247,158 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	80.9	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	70.1	8.4
– Net Position:	-232,366	193,573	38,793
– Gross Longs:	144,083	1,442,525	188,846
– Gross Shorts:	376,449	1,248,952	150,053
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.6	2.4	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-9.5	18.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

30 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (20,240 contracts) with Live Cattle (14,562 contracts), Coffee (2,322 contracts) and Cocoa (1,808 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-39,005 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,071 contracts), Soybean Oil (-13,515 contracts), Soybeans (-6,133 contracts), Wheat (-6,069 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,203 contracts) and Cotton (-4,702 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (95 percent) and Coffee (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (5 percent), Soybean Meal (7 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (60.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.8 percent)
Sugar (27.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (82.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (80.3 percent)
Soybeans (45.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (94.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.6 percent)
Cotton (4.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.8 percent)
Cocoa (28.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.8 percent)
Wheat (11.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.4 percent)

Sugar & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (25 percent) and Live Cattle (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and are the only markets with positive scores.

Soybean Oil (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-34 percent), Corn (-29 percent) and Wheat (-21 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-29.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.0 percent)
Sugar (25.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (-5.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-15.3 percent)
Soybeans (-5.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-43.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-34.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-12.9 percent)
Live Cattle (4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-33.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.9 percent)
Cotton (-7.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-19.3 percent)
Wheat (-21.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 200,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	42.6	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	50.2	10.4
– Net Position:	200,371	-140,438	-59,933
– Gross Longs:	416,135	783,975	131,205
– Gross Shorts:	215,764	924,413	191,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	42.8	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.2	26.8	30.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,802 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	50.1	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	58.2	6.0
– Net Position:	52,042	-72,763	20,721
– Gross Longs:	211,369	450,055	74,523
– Gross Shorts:	159,327	522,818	53,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	70.9	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-24.8	17.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	34.6	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	69.4	3.9
– Net Position:	58,452	-61,242	2,790
– Gross Longs:	70,947	60,843	9,622
– Gross Shorts:	12,495	122,085	6,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	18.5	64.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.6	-11.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	54.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	49.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-14,410	42,137	-27,727
– Gross Longs:	161,713	467,444	41,401
– Gross Shorts:	176,123	425,307	69,128
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	57.1	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	4.9	6.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	54.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	50.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-23,349	24,882	-1,533
– Gross Longs:	117,284	325,973	28,244
– Gross Shorts:	140,633	301,091	29,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	75.2	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-43.0	44.5	-44.6

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	51.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	45.6	5.4
– Net Position:	-49,278	31,359	17,919
– Gross Longs:	100,370	294,361	49,052
– Gross Shorts:	149,648	263,002	31,133
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.2	90.1	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	14.2	-2.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 117,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.3	27.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	50.8	13.8
– Net Position:	117,987	-94,564	-23,423
– Gross Longs:	193,964	109,347	31,975
– Gross Shorts:	75,977	203,911	55,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.9	7.2	15.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.4	-7.6	5.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	37.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	47.8	7.8
– Net Position:	29,389	-26,988	-2,401
– Gross Longs:	90,491	101,431	18,590
– Gross Shorts:	61,102	128,419	20,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	47.7	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.8	34.6	19.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -54,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	52.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.1	33.4	4.8
– Net Position:	-54,006	53,793	213
– Gross Longs:	65,048	148,238	13,921
– Gross Shorts:	119,054	94,445	13,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	95.5	18.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	8.3	-19.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	44.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	65.2	6.0
– Net Position:	18,278	-21,738	3,460
– Gross Longs:	28,864	45,771	9,683
– Gross Shorts:	10,586	67,509	6,223
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	71.7	54.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	11.6	-30.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	36.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	19.5	7.1
– Net Position:	-82,548	79,370	3,178
– Gross Longs:	121,763	170,090	36,009
– Gross Shorts:	204,311	90,720	32,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	84.5	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.1	20.1	8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

30 Mar

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led this week by Nikkei 225

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as just one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nikkei 225 stock index with a small rise of 540 contracts on the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-121,673 contracts), the VIX (-15,159 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-14,307 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-5,479 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,137 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,180 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (87 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (73 percent) and Russell-Mini (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (86.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (100.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (68.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (90.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (53.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (62.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (52.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (74.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (71.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (75.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (79.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (74.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (72.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (77.1 percent)

VIX & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (44 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (25 percent) and the Russell-Mini (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (44.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (48.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-6.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (13.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-11.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-7.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (6.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (11.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (11.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (25.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (17.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	41.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.7	40.9	6.9
– Net Position:	-8,991	2,843	6,148
– Gross Longs:	79,034	128,546	27,278
– Gross Shorts:	88,025	125,703	21,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.5	10.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.4	-43.4	5.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -121,673 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	72.1	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	73.8	7.9
– Net Position:	-53,362	-33,837	87,199
– Gross Longs:	263,754	1,496,022	251,247
– Gross Shorts:	317,116	1,529,859	164,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	29.8	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	11.9	-17.2

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	63.5	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	59.9	14.0
– Net Position:	-4,206	2,646	1,560
– Gross Longs:	8,894	47,272	11,996
– Gross Shorts:	13,100	44,626	10,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	42.1	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	14.4	-16.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,689 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,307 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	52.6	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	63.2	12.0
– Net Position:	8,689	-23,883	15,194
– Gross Longs:	61,767	117,916	42,020
– Gross Shorts:	53,078	141,799	26,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	27.9	83.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	-1.1	11.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	73.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	70.7	5.6
– Net Position:	-15,345	9,457	5,888
– Gross Longs:	63,721	291,919	28,244
– Gross Shorts:	79,066	282,462	22,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	29.7	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-6.6	-17.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.0	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	69.3	18.4
– Net Position:	-121	-46	167
– Gross Longs:	1,068	9,952	2,817
– Gross Shorts:	1,189	9,998	2,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.1	26.1	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-18.4	-5.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	85.7	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	84.9	1.1
– Net Position:	-12,023	3,540	8,483
– Gross Longs:	45,965	359,985	13,278
– Gross Shorts:	57,988	356,445	4,795
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	30.5	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	7.0	22.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

28 Mar

High soybean prices in Zambia and Malawi may make chicken costly too: lack of competition is to blame

By Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, University of Johannesburg

Poultry is one of the cheapest protein sources for the growing population of the east and southern Africa region. That makes soybeans critical to food security in the region, as they are an important input in chicken feed.

Soybean pricing and production dynamics have been challenging for Zambia and Malawi, threatening poultry production in the region.

Poultry feed makes up 60%-70% of the total cost of poultry production. Soybean prices directly affect the affordability of poultry and the ability of producers to be competitive. Small-scale independent poultry producers in particular have a hard time because they buy feed from the open market and are too small to determine prices. Large producers source feed from their own operations and determine soybean prices.

Figure 1: From soybeans to poultry

Source: Authors compilation

Zambia and Malawi are the key soybean producers in east and southern Africa. Both countries were hit hard in 2024 by climate change related weather and by the behaviour of players in the soybean market, including processors and traders.

Zambia’s soybean production fell by 74% because of poor rains and also because of farmers being squeezed. Large buyers had negotiated very low prices in previous years, so farmers planted less.

Malawi’s production also fell (20%), but much less than Zambia’s. Yet the surge in soybean prices in Malawi by 48% between May 2024 and November 2024 was out of proportion with the drop in production, and even surpassed Zambian prices (Figure 2). Malawian prices were the highest in the region, even though it produced enough to export.

We are economists at the African Market Observatory, which monitors prices of staple foods and conducts research on market dynamics. We analyse market concentration and barriers to entry, within and across countries in east and southern Africa, and we do in-depth field work.

Our work shows that competition issues, such as the ability of large buyers to influence prices and high margins, are at the heart of the surge in prices and low production in Malawi and Zambia. The climate-related weather effects are an additional factor.

Figure 2: Soybean prices in Zambia, Malawi and South Africa (benchmark) (3-month moving averages)

Market outcomes

In Zambia, dominant buyers of soybean offered farmers very low prices during the 2023 season – well below US$400/t and the South African benchmark (Figure 2). This meant that farmers planted less than half the 2023 crop in the 2024 season.

Crops were also affected by poor rainfall. Malawi’s 2024 production fell by 20% because of the worst drought in 100 years. The drop in production was lower than expected, demonstrating that farmers can adapt to weather changes. Prices still rose, however, driven by the highly concentrated soybean trading and processing market.

Cheapest source of proteins

Poultry is one of the cheapest sources of protein and has one of the lowest environmental impacts. It is essential that the value chain works well from feed to chicken rearing and becomes more resilient to extreme weather events.

The experience of 2024 shows what can go wrong.

Poultry demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow more than fourfold by 2050. Producers will need affordable feed.

Among them are many small-scale independent producers who rely on competitive markets for their inputs. Yet we found that with the escalating soybean and feed prices in Malawi from late 2021, and higher prices for day-old chicks, small independent producers had negative margins, meaning they made a loss in the second half of 2021. High feed prices undermine the competitiveness of Malawi’s poultry industry.

Aside from South Africa (which relies on genetically modified soybean), Zambia and Malawi have been the largest producers in the region. These countries have been exporting around half of their production (including soycake) to neighbouring countries with larger populations such as Tanzania and Kenya.

Zambia’s production plummet

Between 2020 and 2023, Zambia’s soybean production grew from 297,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes (Figure 3). In 2024, its production collapsed by 74% to 170,000 tonnes. This sharp decline was primarily due to farmers opting to plant less soybean because of the low prices offered from processors in 2023 (Figure 2). Farmers bought 50% less soybean seed for the 2024 season than the 2023 season.

Figure 3: Soybean production in Zambia and Malawi

With limited storage facilities available for farmers in most countries in the region, including Zambia, farmers typically have to sell to traders and processors shortly after harvest.

In Zambia, soybeans are produced by many small farmers, so they compete to sell their crop to a few main processors in a concentrated market. As a result, these processors have greater power to influence the terms of trade, such as price. This was especially evident in 2023 when processors offered farmers lower prices (Figure 2).

Poor rainfall linked to the 2023/24 El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is the warming of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, causing drought in southern Africa while inducing heavy rainfalls and floods in eastern Africa, did have an impact across southern Africa, including Malawi and Zambia. While Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania recorded above average rainfall, their soybean output is low.

Resilience to climate change impacts requires deepening and diversifying agriculture production across countries and regional trade to meet demand.

Soybean prices in Malawi remain high but Zambia’s prices stabilise

Malawi’s prices increased rapidly to over US$700/tonne in June 2024, surpassing Zambia’s, and continued to rise to almost $900/tonne at the end of the year, far above other countries in the region. The reason couldn’t be reduced production from poor rainfall, because production still exceeded local demand. This happened even as the Malawi government put export restrictions on soybeans (but not soymeal). The price surge raises competition concerns in Malawi, where trading and processing is highly concentrated. In theory, highly concentrated markets are characterised by high prices, due to a lack of price competition.

By comparison, Zambia’s prices moderated because of imports. In addition, the low soybean prices offered to farmers in 2023 also meant that processors had crushed surplus soybeans, thereby building up soymeal stock. This reduced the demand for soybeans, as did power cuts in Zambia, which limited crushers’ operations.

Urgent next steps

Soybean developments over 2024 show the need to consider how competition issues within and across borders can undermine the resilience of regional food markets and hinder the ability of small producers to compete. Zambia is currently conducting a commercial poultry market inquiry. But a regional approach in monitoring markets and tackling anti-competitive conduct is necessary to support poultry production.

About the Authors:

Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, Economist and Researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, Economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities

28 Mar

It Looks Like Its a Good Time To Buy This Gold Stock

Source: Clive Maund (3/27/25)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund explains why he thinks Rupert Resources Ltd. (RUP:TSX; RUPRF:OTCQX) is an Immediate Strong Buy for all time horizons.

Rupert Resources Ltd. (RUP:TSX; RUPRF:OTCQX) is an established gold exploration and development company with a substantial defined resource in, of all places, northern Finland. You can check out the fundamentals in the company’s latest investor deck, which certainly looks promising, especially given the stellar outlook for gold.

Here, we are going to concentrate on assessing the outlook for the stock.

On the 10-year chart, we can see that the stock rocketed higher in 2020 on the news of a major discovery, but then, as usual, a top formed, leading to a bear market as interest waned during the long interim period of work to bring the discovery forward. The stock overreacted to the downside, again as usual, and bottomed below CA$3.00 late in 2023 before starting to trend higher again on renewed appreciation of the company’s resource coupled with a rising gold price.

On this chart, we can see that there is considerable resistance arising from prior trading,g mostly between the current price and the CA$6.00 level, which is why the stock has advanced in a measured manner from the late 2023 low through to the present but clearly, once the price succeeds in overcome this resistance, we are likely to see acceleration to the upside.

The 18-month chart shows us the entirety of the uptrend from the November 2023 low to the present. At first, it plodded higher as it waited for the 200-day moving average to completely fall, level off, and turn up, but now the uptrend appears to be starting to accelerate in the steeper channel shown.

The decidedly bullish alignment of the moving averages, the strong Accumulation line, and the improving momentum (MACD) all augur well for continued gains going forward.

The 8-month chart shows a steeper uptrend from where it began in August of last year, and with the price having reacted back in recent weeks to the lower rail of the channel, this clearly looks like a good point to buy with all of the bullish factors mentioned in the paragraph above pointing to an imminent resumption of the advance.

Rupert Resources is accordingly rated an Immediate Strong Buy for all time horizons.

Rupert Resources’ website.

Rupert Resources Ltd. (RUP:TSX; RUPRF:OTCQX) closed for trading at CA$4.25, US$2.99 on March 26, 2025.

Important Disclosures:

Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Financial News Metals

28 Mar

Copper Co. Should Be Up Way Higher

Source: Michael Ballanger (3/28/25)

Michael Ballanger shares his view on the current state of the market and comments on the price of one of his favorite copper stocks.

The U.S. dollar index futures (+0.19%) are up to 104.14, with the 10-year yield down 0.96%) to 4.327% and the 30-year yield down 1.06% to 4.679%.

Gold (+0.70%) and silver (-0.82% ) are higher, but copper (-0.21%) and oil (-0.27%) are down.

Risk barometer Bitcoin is down 2.44% to $84,947, returning again to bear market territory, down 22.3% from the top.

Metals

Gold and silver are responding to a big hedge book blow-up by Aussie gold miner Belleview Gold, whose 150k-ounce hedge with Macquarie Bank has forced them to market with an offering priced at an 80% discount to recent market prices. Silver has once again done its best to confuse and confound by vaulting to new highs above that US$35.07/oz breakout level that faked me out a week ago with embarrassing acuity.

If silver holds this level for the weekly close above the BO point, then I will be forced kicking hard and screaming bloody murder to take another run at silver calls. For now, because I am traveling, I will refrain from launching an open position, but subscribers can certainly consider it.

Copper is coming off an overbought condition so as long as it gold $4.95/lb. basis May futures, I will remain bullish. If the monthly close is above $5.00, it is yet another superb technical indication that $6-8 copper is on the immediate horizon.

Stocks

President Trump once again skewered the stock market recovery by imposing 25% tariffs on all foreign auto imports, sending the S&P into another dive yesterday.

These are the kind of absurd gyrations we are forced to accept with this constant barrage of Tweets and Executive Orders that are putting the market in a constant state of uncertainty. Traders are not in the habit of leveraging up in markets like these, so rallies are there “to be sold” with the SPY:US an outright short at the 50-dma around $570.66.

Fitzroy Minerals Inc.

I surfaced from a very long day of travel landing at Heathrow at 8:00 am followed by six hours of missed cutoffs and unbearably narrow “Roman roads” finally arriving in Cornwall about three hours after the markets opened. I was able to follow the trading in

Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) after they reported 43m of 2.31% copper with a 1.4m share day but a late-day fade after these moronic traders elected to “sell the news” taking it down from CA$0.39 to CA$0.32 in the last two hours.

I have to shake my head in belief when I told everyone that would listen that those results on their first Caballos drill hole were in every sense of the words “spectacular” and as CEO Merlin Marr-Johnson said “This remarkable intercept from our very first hole at Caballos identifies the potential of a new and significant copper-molybdenum-gold-rhenium system.”

I had calls from literally everyone in my book of mining contacts with accolade after accolade as congratulations piled in through email and text messages. In fact, one former corporate client said that the release was one of the best he had ever read for junior and that he was delighted to be able to ADD TO HIS POSITION into the pullback.

What infuriated me was that I had tweeted out the results from Fitzroy Minerals Inc. (FTZ:TSX.V; FTZFF:OTCQB) from October 2023 where they reported 45m of 1.9% copper, and then watched their stock go from CA$0.15 to CA$1.62 in the next month peaking at a market cap of $416 million.

FTZ/FTZFF reported 42m of 2.31% copper and peaked yesterday at a CA$86m market cap. Even more maddening is that BIG.V is a “one-project wonder” whereas FTZ/FTZFF has three additional projects including Buen Retiro (expected to close next week) giving them three fully-funded projects providing copious news flow for the balance of 2025.

Needless to say, I am a buyer of more stock, and I am looking into any additional weakness. I urge all subscribers to follow me. I will cross my fingers and try to add in the CA$0.28-CA$0.32 range with the undeterrable conviction that FTZ/FTZFF will be gone within twelve months at levels far higher than yesterday’s CA$0.39 high.

Add to FTZ/FTZFF. More news is pending next week, with drilling to recommence at Caballos shortly.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fitzroy Minerals Inc.
Michael Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Fitzroy Minerals Inc. My company has a financial relationship with Fitzroy Minerals Inc. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

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Financial News Metals

28 Mar

Banxico cut the rate by 0.5%. The global auto market is under pressure from the introduction of tariffs.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down 0.37%. The S&P500 Index (US500) was down 0.33%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 0.53%. Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on imported cars, effective in April, has heightened fears of escalating trade tensions, especially with key trading partners such as the EU and Canada. Shares of automakers suffered, with General Motors down 7.3% and Ford down 3.9%, while Tesla rose 0.4%, benefiting from domestic production. Investors were also receptive to fresh economic data, with fourth-quarter GDP growth revised up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Initial jobless claims matched expectations, but the trade deficit increased than expected, adding to market uncertainty.

Mexico’s central bank, Banxico, cut its key rate by 0.5% to 9.00% amid further declines in inflation and signs of continued economic weakness earlier this year. The release said several board representatives forecast a similar 50 bps rate cut at the May 9 meeting if disinflation persists, indicating a possible continuation of the easing cycle.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.70%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.51%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.07%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.27% yesterday. Frankfurt’s DAX index closed Thursday below 22.664, its lowest level since mid-March, and underperformed its peers as traders reacted to President Trump’s announcement to impose 25% tariffs on imports of all cars. Shares of auto companies led the decline, with Mercedes-Benz AG, Porsche AG, and BMW all down 2.6% and Volkswagen down 1.5%. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed disappointment but emphasized that the EU is committed to finding a diplomatic solution and protecting its economy.

Norway’s central bank, Norges Bank, kept its key rate at 4.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting. Policymakers noted that inflation has risen sharply and remains much higher than expected. They warned that cutting the discount rate too quickly could increase prices. Norway’s annual inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February 2025 from 2.3% in January, the highest since April 2024. Despite this, officials noted that their current forecast suggests a rate cut is likely later in 2025.

WTI crude prices rose to $69.90 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains of about 1% from the previous day, as traders priced in tightening oil supplies amid concerns about the impact of new US tariffs on the global economy. Market participants were focused on the risks associated with escalating trade tensions, especially after US President Donald Trump unveiled plans to impose 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks, with tariffs on auto parts set to take effect in May. In addition, the market was further supported by data showing a significant decline in US crude oil inventories by 3.3 million barrels last week.

US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices remain below $3.9 per bbl, near a four-week low, as record production and mild weather weigh on prices. Forecasts point to above-normal temperatures in the lower 48 states through April 9, which will likely reduce heating demand and contribute to higher inventories. Analysts forecast that March could see the first net increase in inventories since 2012.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.60%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.58%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.41%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.38%.

On Friday, the Australian dollar slipped below $0.63, reversing the previous session’s gains as new US tariffs come into effect next week, adding to global trade tensions. Markets also focused on next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia decision, where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.1%. Current expectations indicate that rates will not be cut until at least July. Meanwhile, the prime minister announced a national election on May 3, kicking off a five-week campaign centered on tax cuts and reduced living expenses.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,693.31 −18.89 (−0.33%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,299.70 −155.09 (−0.37%)

DAX (DE40) 22,678.74 −160.29 (−0.70%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,666.12 −23.47 (−0.27%)

USD index 104.28 −0.27 (−0.26%)

News feed for: 2025.03.28

Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
Germany Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Mar

Week Ahead: EURUSD braces for Trump tariffs, EU inflation, US jobs report

By ForexTime

EURUSD up over 4% so far in March 2025; set for biggest monthly gain since Nov. 2022
Apr 1: Eurozone’s March CPI could offer mixed readings for EURUSD
Apr 2: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs could hurt US economy and USD
Apr 4: US NFP report, Chair Powell’s speech may offer clues on next Fed rate cut
Bloomberg FX model: 73.7% chance EURUSD trades between 1.0650 – 1.0934 next week

The world’s most-traded FX pair is set for its biggest monthly gain in over 2 years!

At the time of writing, EURUSD is up about 4.08% so far in March 2025.

If it holds around these levels, that would the EURUSD’s biggest 1-month gain since the 5.3% advance in November 2022.

Why did EURUSD rise in March 2025?

Two main reasons:

1) Weaker USD: Markets are worried that President Trump’s tariffs would actually hurt US economic growth.

Against such a dimmer outlook, the US dollar has weakened against almost all of its G10 peers (except against the Japanese Yen) in March 2025.

2) Historic change to Germany government spending: Earlier this month, Europe’s largest economy amended its constitution to get rid of its so-called “debt brake”.

This “historic” decision is set to unleash hundreds of billions of euros on defense and infrastructure spending.

With more government spending for Europe’s largest economy, that has sweetened the Eurozone’s economic outlook, hence the strengthening euro.

NOTE: The euro has also strengthened against almost all its G10 peers (except the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krone) so far in March 2025.

EUR strengthened against most G10 peers in March 2025

With all that in mind …

Can EURUSD extend its month-to-date (March 2025) gains into Q2 2025?

This question will be especially pertinent as we enter a week filled with these major events on the global economic calendar:

Sunday, March 30

Europe, UK goes into Daylight Savings Time

Monday, March 31

JPY: Japan February industrial production, retail sales
AU200 index: March Melbourne institute inflation
CNH: China March PMIs
THB: Thailand February external trade
GER40 index: Germany March CPI; February retail sales

Tuesday, April 1

JP225 index: Japan February jobless rate; 1Q Tankan index
AUD: RBA rate decision; February retail sales
CN50 index: China March manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone March CPI; February unemployment
US30 index: US March ISM manufacturing

Wednesday, April 2

USDInd: Trump’s “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs incoming?

Thursday, April 3

AUD: Australia February trade balance
CN50 index: China March services PMI
EU50 index: Eurozone February PPI; ECB meeting minutes
RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; ISM services index; speech by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson
US500 index: 25% US tariffs on auto imports kick in

Friday, April 4

SG20 index: Singapore February retail sales
GER40 index: Germany March construction PMI; February factory orders
CAD: Canada March unemployment rate
US500 index: US March nonfarm payrolls
USDInd: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

From the list above, we highlight 4 specific events that could trigger massive reactions in the world’s most-traded FX pair:

Tuesday, April 1^st: Eurozone March consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists predict for this important set of inflation data:

Headline CPI year-on-year (March 2025 vs. March 2024): 2.3%
If so, this would match February’s 2.3% year-on-year figure.
Headline CPI month-on-month (March 2025 vs. February 2025): 0.6%
If so, this would be notably higher than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 2.5%
If so, this would be a slight easing from February’s 2.6% core year-on-year figure.

Lower-than-expected CPI prints which encourages more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) could weaken EURUSD.

Wednesday, April 2^nd: “Liberation Day” – more US tariffs?

April 2^nd is the deadline for when US President Donald Trump intends to roll out “reciprocal” tariffs, which suggests an “eye-for-an-eye” approach.

This essentially points to the raising of US tariffs to fix trade imbalances against its major trading partners, including the Eurozone.

Markets initially believed that these “reciprocal tariffs” would actually slow down US economic growth, hence the US dollar’s steep drop in early March.

More recently, markets hope that Trump’s next tariff salvo may not be as damaging as initially feared. Hence, the euro has weakened against the US dollar in 7 out of the past 8 daily trading sessions.

There is still much uncertainty about what this major tariff announcement will look like, with markets largely adopting a “wait and see mode”.

Ultimately, if the market’s worst-case-scenario is confirmed, that could further dent the US dollar while adding to EURUSD’s gains from March 2025.

Friday, April 4^th: US March nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here’s what economists predict for this closely-watched jobs report:

Headline NFP figure: 135,000 (new jobs added to US labour market)

If so, this would be lower than February’s 151,000 headline NFP figure.

Unemployment rate: 4.1%

If so, this would match February’s unemployment rate

Average hourly earnings month-on-month (March 2025 vs. Feb 2025): 0.3%

If so, this would match February’s figure.

Stronger-than-expected US jobs data, which points to resilience in the world’s largest economy, should bolster the US dollar and drag EURUSD lower.

Friday, April 4^th: Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell

Just 3 hours after the US jobs report’s release, the Chair of the Federal Reserve – the US central bak – is set to share his economic outlook.

Markets will be eager to find out his take not just on the latest NFP numbers, but also what President Trump’s tariff announcements earlier in the week would mean for the resilience of the US economy.

A weakening US jobs market that faces more damage from tariffs could prompt the Fed to cut rates sooner than expected – a weaker USD scenario.

At the time of writing, markets are forecasting a:

54% chance (almost evenly split) that the Fed will cut its benchmark rates by another 75-basis points (3 more rate cuts, 25-bps per FOMC meeting) by end-2025.
70% chance that the next Fed rate cut will happen at the June FOMC meeting.

Looking at the charts …

At the time of writing, EURUSD is trading just below the big, round 1.08000 number, around its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Note also that EURUSD earlier this week found crucial support at its 200-day SMA.

EURUSD in "wait and see" mode around 1.080 ahead of more US tariffs

Bloomberg’s FX model currently predicts a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.0650 – 1.0934 over the coming week.

Potential Scenarios:

EURUSD could weaken below its 200-day SMA and towards 1.0650 if we see:
– weaker-than-expected Eurozone CPI which paves way for ECB rate cuts
– more US trade tariffs on EU, but not as damaging on the US economy
– stronger-than-expected US jobs report and a hawkish Chair Powell that pushes back on the next Fed rate cut

EURUSD could revisit its latest cycle high around 1.094 or above if we see:
– stronger-than-expected Eurozone CPI which delays ECB rate cuts
– reciprocal US trade tariffs that confirm market’s worst-case fears by hurting the US economy and dollar
– weaker-than-expected US jobs report and a dovish Chair Powell that opens the door for a sooner-than-June Fed rate cut

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

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