InvestMacro

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by 5-Years, US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Years

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Years, US Treasury Bonds & Ultra 10-Years

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (65,931 contracts) with the US Treasury Bonds (48,928 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (29,989 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (3,675 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-79,988 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-43,331 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (-36,874 contracts), the Fed Funds (-15,621 contracts) and with the SOFR 3-Months (-5,059 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (99 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (83 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (79 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (7 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (13 percent) and the Fed Funds (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the SOFR 3-Months (21 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (14.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (17.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (12.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (37.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (41.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (63.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (53.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (98.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (81.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (82.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (81.3 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (79.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (88.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (21.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (21.7 percent)

SOFR 1-Month & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (30 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-26.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-31.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-2.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-11.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (25.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (9.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (27.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.0 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (29.6 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (44.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-18.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-17.8 percent)

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -217,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -201,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	71.8	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	58.8	1.9
– Net Position:	-217,474	212,595	4,879
– Gross Longs:	192,884	1,175,918	36,375
– Gross Shorts:	410,358	963,323	31,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.4	80.7	94.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	24.9	12.9

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -751,909 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,059 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -746,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	63.2	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	56.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-751,909	741,677	10,232
– Gross Longs:	1,274,103	6,488,316	48,858
– Gross Shorts:	2,026,012	5,746,639	38,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	78.0	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	18.5	0.7

Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,587 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -36,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	62.8	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	65.8	0.4
– Net Position:	43,587	-40,739	-2,848
– Gross Longs:	270,679	841,032	2,193
– Gross Shorts:	227,092	881,771	5,041
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.2	21.5	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.6	-29.0	-18.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,298,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -79,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,218,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	77.1	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	48.5	3.1
– Net Position:	-1,298,612	1,190,699	107,913
– Gross Longs:	554,284	3,205,872	237,223
– Gross Shorts:	1,852,896	2,015,173	129,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.8	88.4	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	4.4	-9.2

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,861,735 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 65,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,927,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	83.6	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	56.8	4.7
– Net Position:	-1,861,735	1,761,677	100,058
– Gross Longs:	430,766	5,492,122	411,431
– Gross Shorts:	2,292,501	3,730,445	311,373
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	93.6	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	3.7	-3.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -751,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -43,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -707,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	74.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	59.8	7.5
– Net Position:	-751,034	699,753	51,281
– Gross Longs:	726,203	3,652,408	420,463
– Gross Shorts:	1,477,237	2,952,655	369,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	64.4	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.2	15.4	-6.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -85,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	74.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	68.6	12.0
– Net Position:	-85,574	133,515	-47,941
– Gross Longs:	333,183	1,685,361	223,392
– Gross Shorts:	418,757	1,551,846	271,333
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	14.9	79.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-23.4	-12.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 44,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 48,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	64.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	70.3	6.8
– Net Position:	44,001	-119,542	75,541
– Gross Longs:	478,347	1,313,493	213,125
– Gross Shorts:	434,346	1,433,035	137,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.8	0.0	70.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.5	-30.3	14.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -243,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	80.8	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	68.8	8.6
– Net Position:	-239,941	214,843	25,098
– Gross Longs:	152,029	1,450,800	179,900
– Gross Shorts:	391,970	1,235,957	154,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.7	11.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	-14.0	43.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

16 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (11,414 contracts) with Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (6,583 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,612 contracts), Soybeans (-30,385 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle, Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (90 percent), Coffee (88 percent) and Corn (88 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (88.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (92.7 percent)
Sugar (2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (48.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Soybeans (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (17 percent), Wheat (16 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (17.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (30.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-29.8 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (18.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 424,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -37,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 462,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	39.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.0	56.0	10.4
– Net Position:	424,769	-338,472	-86,297
– Gross Longs:	586,274	796,993	124,448
– Gross Shorts:	161,505	1,135,465	210,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	17.6	2.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-14.2	-32.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	53.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	51.3	7.0
– Net Position:	-26,526	19,297	7,229
– Gross Longs:	231,941	538,044	78,087
– Gross Shorts:	258,467	518,747	70,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	95.8	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	18.6	3.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	37.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	71.9	3.5
– Net Position:	63,697	-67,169	3,472
– Gross Longs:	78,310	71,130	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	14,613	138,299	6,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	12.9	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.9	-1.8	15.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	55.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.2	8.2
– Net Position:	6,781	23,383	-30,164
– Gross Longs:	170,362	505,039	44,383
– Gross Shorts:	163,581	481,656	74,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	54.5	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-18.0	-10.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	55.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	67.0	4.5
– Net Position:	55,168	-65,153	9,985
– Gross Longs:	124,887	312,914	35,495
– Gross Shorts:	69,719	378,067	25,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.7	30.7	52.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-28.6	32.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	50.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	51.0	5.7
– Net Position:	-13,967	-4,408	18,375
– Gross Longs:	102,087	294,109	51,912
– Gross Shorts:	116,054	298,517	33,537
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.5	-9.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	29.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	53.5	14.1
– Net Position:	113,424	-88,275	-25,149
– Gross Longs:	179,879	108,595	26,597
– Gross Shorts:	66,455	196,870	51,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	14.8	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.1	-9.5	-5.5

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.3	32.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	53.4	9.4
– Net Position:	73,220	-67,641	-5,579
– Gross Longs:	137,087	101,137	24,044
– Gross Shorts:	63,867	168,778	29,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	13.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	0.8	29.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	50.0	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	36.3	4.6
– Net Position:	-42,565	39,238	3,327
– Gross Longs:	68,832	143,745	16,498
– Gross Shorts:	111,397	104,507	13,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.4	93.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	2.9	20.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	40.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	67.3	4.1
– Net Position:	26,819	-33,051	6,232
– Gross Longs:	40,947	48,369	11,236
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	81,420	5,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.3	60.1	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	9.6	3.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	34.1	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	21.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-55,941	54,281	1,660
– Gross Longs:	132,148	152,709	35,998
– Gross Shorts:	188,089	98,428	34,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	64.4	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.3	-16.3	-1.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

16 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE & DowJones

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the MSCI EAFE-Mini (12,814 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (1,156 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-12,292 contracts), the VIX (-10,465 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,542 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,966 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-12 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (81 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (62 percent) and Nikkei 225 (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the VIX (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (42.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (52.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (62.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (64.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (65.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (60.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (68.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (59.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (63.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (80.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (64.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (17 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-21 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-25.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-28.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (5.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-2.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-6.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-16.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-12.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-20.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-17.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (16.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (33.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	50.6	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	35.6	7.0
– Net Position:	-58,995	53,878	5,117
– Gross Longs:	68,455	182,190	30,334
– Gross Shorts:	127,450	128,312	25,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.9	53.8	99.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	17.1	33.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -17,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	68.5	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	73.9	7.0
– Net Position:	-17,109	-113,610	130,719
– Gross Longs:	333,661	1,436,654	277,921
– Gross Shorts:	350,770	1,550,264	147,202
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	18.7	89.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.7	-3.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	61.0	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	70.0	13.0
– Net Position:	2,877	-7,270	4,393
– Gross Longs:	14,179	49,676	14,949
– Gross Shorts:	11,302	56,946	10,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.0	27.7	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	5.9	-13.7

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	56.0	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	64.6	11.0
– Net Position:	13,436	-22,860	9,424
– Gross Longs:	73,511	147,448	38,295
– Gross Shorts:	60,075	170,308	28,871
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	29.0	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	22.4	-19.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,966 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	78.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	73.3	5.0
– Net Position:	-32,464	20,253	12,211
– Gross Longs:	41,084	324,238	32,835
– Gross Shorts:	73,548	303,985	20,624
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	36.4	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.7	24.0	-25.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,200 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	70.9	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	53.8	18.7
– Net Position:	-2,212	1,948	264
– Gross Longs:	923	8,080	2,400
– Gross Shorts:	3,135	6,132	2,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	40.1	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-7.5	-16.9

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,814 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	84.6	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	85.1	1.6
– Net Position:	-1,792	-2,262	4,054
– Gross Longs:	55,641	369,926	10,865
– Gross Shorts:	57,433	372,188	6,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	23.5	37.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.9	-34.9	14.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

14 Feb

The German Index set another high. The GDP of Malaysia and Singapore show steady growth

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.77%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 1.04%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) is up 1.43%. Stocks found support after Thursday’s release of the January Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which bodes well for the upcoming PCE Price Index report. The US PPI for January rose by 3.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of 3.3% y/y and the largest increase in nearly 2 years. January PPI excluding food and energy rose 3.6% y/y, stronger than expectations of 3.3% y/y. US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 213,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 216,000. Lower bond yields also sparked a rally in microchip stocks, which helped boost the overall market.

The Canadian dollar strengthened above 1.43 per US dollar, hitting a near two-month high, as the Bank of Canada softened its dovish stance. The Bank of Canada’s latest meeting minutes highlighted concerns that lingering uncertainty over potential US tariffs, which are expected to affect business investment and spur inflation, caused policymakers to refrain from making interest rate estimates.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.52% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.49%. The DAX Index rose sharply on Thursday, setting a new record, marking the fourth day of gains. Market sentiment remained upbeat amid strong corporate earnings and optimism about a possible end to the war in Ukraine, although caution remained on US trade policy. On the corporate front, Rheinmetall shares jumped more than 9% and led the index. Automakers also advanced strongly, with Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes Benz, and Porsche adding between 4% and 6%. German technology conglomerate Siemens was also among the leaders, rising nearly 6% after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings.

WTI crude oil prices settled at $71.3 a barrel on Friday amid rising fuel demand and a delay in US plans to impose tariffs. According to JPMorgan, global oil demand rose to 103.4 million barrels per day in February, up 1.4 million barrels per day from a year earlier. Crude oil could see a small gain this week, the first since mid-January.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices climbed above $3.76/MMBtu, the highest in three weeks, thanks to higher LNG exports, lower output, and prognoses of colder weather. In addition, the EIA reported that US utilities withdrew 100 Bcf of natural gas from storage in the week ended February 7, bringing total inventories down to 2,297 Bcf, above the expected 92 Bcf.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.28%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.47%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) climbed 0.20%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.05%.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said in its fourth-quarter monetary policy implementation report that it will adjust policy at the right time to support the economy. The Central Bank recognized strengthening external factors, weak domestic demand, and various potential risks. To address these challenges, the Central Bank plans to use a full range of monetary policy tools, including interest rates and the bank reserve requirement ratio. It also emphasized that the scope and timing of policy measures will be adjusted depending on domestic and global economic conditions.

The New Zealand dollar rose to around US$0.569 on Friday, extending gains from the previous session, helped by a weaker US dollar after President Donald Trump delayed the imposition of significant duties. He said retaliatory tariffs would only take effect after the White House considers appropriate tariff levels for each country. Domestically, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 50 bps next week to 3.75%, with markets expecting another 75 bps cut this year.

Malaysia’s economy grew by 5% year-on-year in Q4 2024, beating initial estimates of 4.8% but slowing from an upwardly revised 5.4% in the previous quarter. This is the slowest growth in the past three quarters. Net trade made a positive contribution to GDP, with exports rising 8.5% and imports increasing 5.7%. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy contracted by 1.1%, the first contraction since Q4 2023, following a revised 1.8% growth in Q3. For the full year, Malaysia’s GDP grew by 5.1%.

Singapore’s economy grew 5% year-on-year in Q4 2024, slowing from 5.7% growth in Q3. For the full year, the economy grew by 4.4%, exceeding the 1.8% growth recorded in 2023.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,115.07 +63.10 (+1.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,711.43 +342.87 (+0.77%)

DAX (DE40) 22,612.02 +463.99 (+2.09%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,764.72 −42.72 (−0.49%)

USD Index 107.12 −0.20 (−0.18%)

News feed for: 2025.02.14

Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

14 Feb

EUR/USD significantly rises as risks diminish

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD climbed to 1.0453 on Friday, reaching a two-week high and maintaining stability.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

The euro’s gains accelerated after US President Donald Trump signed a memorandum to review retaliatory duties without immediately imposing new tariffs. This decision eased investor concerns, reducing fears of an aggressive US response that could have added to inflationary pressures. With no immediate trade retaliations, markets view inflation risks as stabilising, reducing uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Additionally, geopolitical tensions appear to be easing, lowering the risk premium in the currency market and further supporting EUR/USD.

However, doubts remain regarding the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). While the Fed continues to be cautious, showing little urgency to cut interest rates, the ECB is actively considering rate cuts. This policy mismatch is expected to weigh on the euro in the long term.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD extended its growth wave towards 1.0466 before forming a consolidation range below this level. The pair has now broken downward from this range, opening the potential for a decline towards 1.0372. Once this target is reached, a corrective move towards 1.0416 is likely. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line at high levels, suggesting an imminent pullback to lower lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD completed its growth wave to 1.0466 and is now consolidating in a narrow range. A downward breakout is expected, initially targeting 1.0420, followed by a potential correction towards 1.0444. In the longer term, another downward wave will likely develop, targeting 1.0394 and extending towards 1.0372. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below 50 and trending towards 20, indicating growing downside pressure.

Conclusion

While EUR/USD has gained on reduced trade war risks and stabilising inflation fears, the pair is now facing a short-term correction. The monetary policy divergence between the Fed and ECB remains a key factor that could limit further upside for the euro. Technically, a pullback towards 1.0372 is likely in the short term, with potential corrective bounces towards 1.0416 and 1.0444 before the next downward wave. Market participants will continue monitoring US trade policy updates and Fed rate expectations for further direction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Feb

Week Ahead: Trump’s trade war threatens UK100’s record run

By ForexTime

UK100 ↑ 7% year-to-date

One of best-performing indices in FXTM’s universe YTD

Trump’s tariffs + UK data + BoE Bailey = volatility?

UK jobs data sparked moves of ↑ 1.2% & ↓ 1.4% over past year

Technical levels: 8846, 8800 & 8655

President Donald Trump has announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs on numerous trading partners!

These join the already imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and 25% duties on all US steel and aluminium imports next month.

While Trump’s new tariffs raise the prospect of a global trade war, the delayed implementation could open doors to possible negotiations.

Beyond the trade drama, central bank decisions, high-impact data and corporate earnings will be in focus in the week ahead:

Monday, 17th February

US markets closed: Presidents Day holiday
JP225: Japan GDP, tertiary industry index
SG20: Singapore trade
USDInd: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman speech

Tuesday, 18th February

AU200: RBA rate decision
CAD: Canada CPI
GER40: Germany ZEW survey
UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
US500: US Empire manufacturing, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speech

Wednesday, 19th February

CN50: China property prices
JP225: Japan machinery orders, trade
NZD: New Zealand rate decision
ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales
UK100: UK CPI
USDInd: US FOMC minutes

Thursday, 20th February

AUD: Australia unemployment
CN50: China loan prime rates
EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence, ECB 2024 financial statements
TWN: Taiwan export orders
US30: US initial jobless claims, Walmart earnings, Fed speech

Friday, 21st February

CAD: Canada retail sales, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem speech
GER40: Germany HCOB manufacturing & services PMI
JP225: Japan CPI
UK100: UK Retail sales, S&P Global manufacturing & services PMI
RUS2000: US S&P Global manufacturing & services PMI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

FXTM’s UK100 is in focus after recently touching a fresh all-time high at 8846.1.

UK100

Note: UK100 tracks the FTSE100 index – the benchmark measuring the stock performance of the 100 largest listed companies on the London Stock Exchange.

The Index has gained over 7% year-to-date, outperforming most of its global peers in the FXTM universe.

GER40: +13.6%
EU50: +12.3%
NETH25: 8%
US500: +4%
NAS100: +4.9%
RUS2000: +2.3%
JP225: -1.9%
TWN: 0.5%

A weaker pound and expectations around lower UK interest rates remain key drivers behind the UK100’s positive year-to-date gains.

Note: Over 80% of the revenues from FTSE100 companies come from outside of the UK. When the pound depreciates, it results in higher revenues for those companies that acquire sales from overseas – pushing the UK100 higher as a result. The same is true vice versa.

After notching repeated record highs, could Trump’s tariff war or souring sentiment towards the UK economy threaten UK100 bulls?

Here are 3 factors that could move the UK100 in the week ahead:

1) Trump’s reciprocal tariffs

The UK could be thrown into the firing line if Trump’s reciprocal tariffs target countries using a VAT tax. Such tariffs could negatively impact the British economy, souring appetite for riskier assets.

Note: Value Added Tax (VAT) is a tax added to the sale of goods and services in the UK. In the United Kingdom, the standard VAT rate is 20%.

If Trump targets the UK economy, this may expose the UK100 to downside risks.

However, if the UK is not targeted the UK100 may see a relief rally as an element of uncertainty is removed.

2) UK data + BoE Bailey speech

A string of top-tier data and a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey may influence bets around BoE rate cuts.

Tuesday, 18th February: UK January jobs data, BoE Governor Bailey speech

The incoming UK jobs data should provide fresh insight into the health of the UK labour forces. BoE Bailey’s speech could provide fresh insight into future policy moves.

Traders are currently pricing a 93% probability of a 25bp BoE cut by May.

Over the past 12 months, the UK jobs data has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.2% or declines of 1.4% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Wednesday, 19th February: UK January CPI

The consumer price index, which measures headline inflation could offer clues about when the BoE will cut rates.

Annual inflation is expected to jump 2.8% from 2.5% in the previous month, while the core reading is seeing rising 3.6% to 3.2%. The month-on-month print is forecast to drop 0.3%.

Over the past 12 months, the UK CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.0% or declines of 0.7% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Friday, 21st February: UK Retail sales, S&P Global PMI’s

Overall, these data releases could provide insight into the health of the UK economy.

Over the past 12 months, the UK retail sales has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.3% or declines of 1.2% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) Technical forces

The UK100 is firmly bullish on the daily charts with prices above the 21, 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index indicates prices are flirting near overbought territory.

A solid daily close above 8800, could open a path toward 8846.1, 8850 and 8900.

Sustained weakness below 8800 may trigger a decline toward 8655 and the 21-day SMA at 8633.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Feb

Today, traders’ attention is focused on the US inflation data

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.28% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.03%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 0.29%. The US stocks had a mixed session on Tuesday as investors weighed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious stance on interest rates and President Trump’s new 25% tariffs, which fueled fears of a potential trade war.

Today, markets will focus on the US inflation report for January, which is expected to be unchanged from December at 2.9% y/y, while core CPI is expected to fall to 3.1% y/y from 3.2% in December. Also on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell will testify on the economy and monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on March 18–19 at 6%.

Tesla (TSLA) stock price fell more than 6% and topped the list of losers in the Nasdaq 100. Technical selling weighed on Tesla after it fell below its 100-day moving average. Humana (HUM) closed down more than 3% after expecting 2025 adjusted EPS of $15.88, which was weaker than the consensus estimate of $16.09.

The Canadian dollar stabilized near 1.43 per US dollar, continuing its recovery from the 22-year low of 1.455 recorded on January 31. This was helped by a strong labor market, which reduced the need for the Bank of Canada to cut rates. Unemployment fell to 6.6% in January, easing fears of labor market weakness noted by the Bank of Canada. The currency’s recovery was also aided by a temporary pause in the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian exports, which was secured by Prime Minister Trudeau for further negotiations. In addition, rising crude oil prices amid supply concerns boosted demand for the commodity-linked loonie.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.58%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.28% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.52%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up 0.11%. European equities closed solidly higher, continuing their strong momentum on Tuesday as strong corporate results reinforced the view that European equities have a favorable valuation compared to North American peers, while markets assessed the impact of new US tariffs on European corporate giants. In the heavy discretionary sector, Ferrari shares jumped 2.8% and continued their momentum after the earnings release, while Kering shares rose by 1.3%. On the other hand, UniCredit shares fell by 1% after the release of results.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $73 a barrel on Wednesday, interrupting three days of gains after an industry report showed a sharp rise in US crude inventories. API data showed US crude inventories rose by 9 million barrels last week, well above the expected 2.8 million increase, which would be the biggest increase in a year if official data is confirmed today. Traders also remained cautious amid escalating trade tensions and broader economic uncertainty.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.29%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.06%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.01%. Hong Kong stocks soared 1.8% to 21685 in early trading on Wednesday. The Hang Seng hit its highest level in four months after China’s cabinet pledged to boost spending and attract foreign investment ahead of the annual legislative meeting in March.

The Australian dollar strengthened above US$0.63 on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in eight weeks, as traders largely reacted to the latest tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Markets also adjusted their expectations on the impact of tariff escalation on inflation as they awaited the release of the latest US Consumer Price Index report. Domestically, investors continued to monitor the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy outlook. It is increasingly likely that the RBA will start cutting interest rates as early as this month as inflation weakens and signs of slowing economic growth emerge.

The Indian rupee posted its biggest one-day gain in nearly two years on Tuesday, rebounding from a series of record lows, bringing its monthly realized volatility to 4.4%, the highest level since April 2023. Despite the recovery, pressures remain due to a widening trade deficit, high crude oil prices and global risk aversion.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,068.50 +2.06 (+0.034%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,593.65 +123.24 (+0.28%)

DAX (DE40) 22,037.83 +126.09 (+0.58%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,777.39 +9.59 (+0.11%)

USD Index 107.91 -0.41 (-0.37%)

News feed for: 2025.02.12

Indian Inflation Rate (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+2);
US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
US Fed Chair Powell Testimony at 17:00 (GMT+2);
US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Feb

The pound’s rally stalls as investors await fresh economic data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

GBP/USD is consolidating around 1.2447 on Wednesday as traders hold back, awaiting key UK economic data releases later this week.

Key factors influencing GBP/USD

Earlier this week, the British pound faced pressure after Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann shifted to a more dovish stance. She stated that weak domestic demand reduces inflation risks, marking a notable change from her previously hawkish position.

Mann now believes consumer spending is slowing, limiting businesses’ ability to raise prices, and contributing to a faster-than-expected decline in inflationary pressures.

The BoE expects inflation to rise to 3.7% by the end of 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024. Meanwhile, UK GDP growth forecasts have been lowered to 0.75% for 2025, down from the earlier estimate of 1.5%.

Investors are now awaiting key UK macroeconomic data, including:

December GDP estimate

Preliminary Q4 2024 economic growth data

End-of-year industrial production figures

Externally, the pound is also under pressure from a stronger US dollar. However, compared to other major currencies, GBP remains relatively stable.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD declined to 1.2332, followed by a correction to 1.2458. After reaching this level, a new downside wave is expected towards 1.2279. A narrow consolidation range is likely to form around this level. If the price breaks below this range, the next targets will be 1.2100 and 1.2020, signalling a continued bearish trend. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing downward, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD completed a correction to 1.2458. The market is now expected to resume its downward movement towards 1.2279. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and trending sharply downwards towards 20, suggesting increasing bearish momentum.

Conclusion

GBP/USD is in a consolidation phase, with market participants awaiting key UK economic data. Weakening domestic demand and shifting expectations regarding the Bank of England’s (BOE) policy are weighing on the pound, while external pressure from a stronger USD adds to its downside risks. Technically, further declines are expected towards 1.2279, with the potential for deeper losses to 1.2100 and 1.2020 if the economic data disappoints. Market focus remains on upcoming UK macroeconomic releases, which will determine the next significant move for GBP/USD.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Feb

25% tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum in the US provoke the growth of metals

By JustMarkets

At the end of Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.38%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.67%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was up 1.24%. Stock indices rose moderately on Monday thanks to gains in US metals and mining stocks after President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on US steel and aluminum imports. The tariff hike also drove gold prices to a record high and copper to a four-month high. Strengthening shares of chip companies also supported the broader market’s gains.

Shares of Uber Technologies (UBER) closed higher by more than 5%, adding to last Friday’s 6% rally after Pershing Square Capital Management announced it had acquired 30.3 million shares of the company. McDonald’s (MCD) is up more than 4% and led the Dow Jones Industrials after reporting an unexpected 0.5% increase in fourth-quarter comparable sales, which was better than the consensus expectations of a 0.93% decline. Illumina (ILMN) was down more than 5% after Barclays downgraded the stock to “underweight” from “equal weight” with a $100 price target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.57%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 0.42% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.77% higher. The FTSE 100 index rose to a record high of 8749, thanks to a 7.3% rise in BP shares after it was revealed that activist investor Elliott Management had increased its stake in the company in a bid to address its underperformance. On the news, BP shares closed at their highest level since July. Across sectors, oil and gas stocks rose more than 2%, while precious metals miners gained about 3.6% thanks to higher oil and gold prices.

ECB Vice President Guindos warned that the imposition of tariffs by the US would cause a “supply shock” that would “fundamentally” affect the expansion of the global economy.

WTI crude prices held above $72 a barrel on Tuesday, maintaining a nearly 2% gain from the previous session, helped by signs of declining Russian supply and rising supply risks. Russian oil production in January was reportedly even lower than the OPEC+ quota, and new US sanctions are targeting individuals and tankers carrying Iranian oil to China to put pressure on Tehran. In addition, Trump called on Israel to end its truce with Hamas if hostages are not returned this weekend, raising the threat of renewed conflict as both sides accuse each other of violating the agreement.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) remained just below $32 an ounce on Tuesday, holding near three-month highs amid rising demand for the precious metal following the imposition of the latest US tariffs. The US President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports “without exceptions or exemptions,” sparking concerns over inflation and a potential escalation of the global trade war. In addition, silver prices were supported by expectations of stronger industrial demand, particularly from the renewable energy sector, as well as prognoses of continued supply shortages.

Platinum (XPT/USD) prices rose to $1,020 per ounce, approaching the three-month high of $1,032 reached on January 31 and up more than 12% YTD. The rally in the precious metals market is being driven by rising demand for safe-haven commodities and monetary easing by major central banks, temporarily offsetting the slowdown in demand.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.30%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose 1.84%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.34%.

The Australian dollar held near two-week highs on Tuesday, supported by rising commodity prices. In Australia, a private survey showed a small rise in Consumer Confidence in February, although it remained in pessimistic territory due to concerns over household shortfalls and continued cost of living pressures. Markets are keeping a close eye on the possible start of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s easing cycle this month as domestic inflation weakens and signs of slowing economic growth emerge.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,066.44 +40.45 (+0.67%)

Dow Jones (US30) 44,470.41 +167.01 (+0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 21,911.74 +124.74 (+0.57%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,767.80 +67.27 (+0.77%)

USD Index 108.33 +0.01 (+0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.02.11

Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 14:15 (GMT+2);
US Fed Chair Powell Testimony at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

11 Feb

Drilling down: Key factors that could impact oil prices this week

By ForexTime

Oil prices ↑ almost 2% this week

Russian/Iran supply concerns overshadow Trump’s tariff

EIA, OPEC and IEA monthly oil market reports in focus

Brent: US CPI sparked moves of ↑ 1.9% & ↓ 1.2% over past year

Technical levels: 200-day SMA, $76.00 and $74.00

Oil benchmarks are up almost 2% this week as tighter Russian crude supply overshadowed fears around Trump’s expanding tariffs.

Data from Russia revealed that production in January slipped below the nation’s OPEC+ quota. This adds to the rising concerns over supply following US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.

Mounting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East amid Trump’s involvement could compound supply fears, fuelling oil’s upside gains.

Brent has climbed above $76.00, while WTI crude is trading at $73 as of writing.

Despite the recent rebound, Trump’s tariff drama could create obstacles down the road.

Trump recently imposed 25% tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports, scheduled to take effect on March 12.

He also plans to slap reciprocal tariffs sometime this week that will affect ‘everyone’.

Higher tariffs could threaten global growth, hitting demand for oil and resulting in lower prices. This uncertainty may force OPEC+ to delay increasing production beyond April 2025.

Regarding the week ahead, oil could be rocked by a cocktail of high-risk events.

Three of the most influential oil forecasters – EIA, OPEC and EIA will publish their latest monthly market outlooks. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s 2-day testimony and the latest US CPI could inject oil prices with additional volatility.

Here is what you need to know:

1) Oil monthly market outlooks

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to publish its monthly oil market on Tuesday afternoon.

On Wednesday, OPEC will publish its latest oil market report and on Thursday the International Energy Agency (IEA) releases its own.

Any fresh insight into the outlook for oil markets and demand forecasts among other themes may move Brent/Crude prices.

2) Powell’s 2-day testimony & US CPI

As highlighted in our week ahead report, Powell’s testimony and the US CPI data may influence Fed cut bets.

Lower US interest rates could stimulate economic growth, fueling oil demand. Lower rates may also weaken the dollar, boosting oil which is priced in dollars. The same is true vice versa.

Over the past 12 months, the US CPI has triggered upside moves on Brent of as much as 1.9% or declines of 1.2% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) Technical forces

Brent has staged a solid rebound from $74 with prices trading above the 50 and 100-day SMA.

A solid daily close above $76 could encourage a move toward the 200-day SMA at $77.50 and $78.40.

Should prices slip back below $76, bears may target the 50-day and 100-day SMA before retesting $74.

Brent

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Energy Financial News

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