04 Apr

Week Ahead: S&P 500 to flirt with “bear market”?

By ForexTime 

  • US500 plummets to lowest since August; after Thursday’s biggest 1-day drop since pandemic
  • China announces tariff retaliation ahead of Friday’s NFP, Powell speech
  • Week Ahead: EU retaliation, US CPI, and earnings season could trigger more big moves!
  • Markets may not find comfort from Fed speakers next week
  • Technical rebound likely not sustained, barring stunning risk turnaround
  • Wall Street still forecasting new record high for S&P 500 over next 12 months
  • US500 would officially enter “bear market” if it falls to 4921.04.

     

US stock indices are extending their steep drop on Friday!

This comes after just posting their biggest one-day drop since the pandemic on Thursday, April 3rd, 2025 when the:

  • S&P 500 (tracked by FXTM’s US500) fell 4.84%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average a.k.a. the Dow (tracked by FXTM’s US30) fell 3.98%.
  • S&P Midcap 400 index (tracked by FXTM’s US400) fell 6.66%.
  • Russell 2000 (tracked by FXTM’s RUS2000) fell 6.59%.

Thursday’s declines marked their largest one-day drop (in % terms) for each of these US stock indices since June 11th, 2020!

As for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (tracked by FXTM’s NAS100), it fell 5.41% yesterday – nearly matching its 5.54% plummet on September 13th, 2022.

READ MORE: Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs: How are markets reacting? (published Thursday, April 3rd, 2025)

 

 

Why are US stock markets falling on Friday (April 4th)?

In a tit-for-tat move, China has just responded to US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff hike earlier this week (Wednesday, April 2nd).

Today, China announced 34% tariffs on all US imports starting April 10th!

Although the 34% number is lower than the 54% rate imposed by President Trump on Chinese shipments …

This has clearly escalated the trade war between the world’s two largest economies! 

This has left investors and traders worldwide outright fearful about the impact from an escalating global trade war, potentially sending the world into a recession!

And there could be even more volatility today for US stock indices.

Note that these steep declines at the time of writing are happening even before the release of the monthly US jobs report (NFP – nonfarm payrolls) as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech due later today (Friday, April 4th).

 

And that’s before we enter the week ahead which features these key scheduled economic events:

Monday, April 7

  • XAU: China foreign reserves
  • GER40 index: Germany February industrial production, external trade
  • EUR: EU trade minister to discuss reaction to Trump tariffs; Eurozone February retail sales
  • USDInd: Speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Tuesday, April 8

  • AUD: Australia April consumer confidence; March business confidence
  • TWN index: Taiwan March CPI, PPI
  • USDInd: Speech by San Franscisco Fed President Mary Daly

Wednesday, April 9

  • NZD: RBNZ rate decision
  • MXN: Mexico March CPI
  • USDInd: FOMC meeting minutes; speech by Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin
  • US “reciprocal” tariffs go into effect

Thursday, April 10

  • JP225 index: Japan March PPI
  • CN50 index: China March CPI, PPI
  • TWN index: Taiwan March trade balance
  • US500 index: US March CPI
  • RUS2000 index: US initial weekly jobless claims; speeches by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan
  • China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs against US go into effect

Friday, April 11

  • NZD: New Zealand March manufacturing PMI
  • GBP: UK February GDP, industrial production, trade balance
  • US400 index: US April consumer sentiment; March PPI
  • USDInd: Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem
  • US30 index: US earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo etc.

 

 

3 things to look out for next week (April 7– 11):

 

1) Monday, April 7th: Tariff Retaliation

EU trade ministers are set to gather in Luxembourg for a closely-watched meeting.

The agenda?

To formulate the EU’s reaction to President Trump’s tariff salvo.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if the EU adopts an aggressive stance, emulating China, and retaliates in a tit-for-tat manner.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if the EU adopts a more conciliatory tone with the US administration, looking to swiftly strike a trade deal instead.

 

2) Thursday, April 10th: US March consumer price index (CPI)

Here’s what economists predict for the upcoming inflation report (CPI measures inflation)

  • CPI month-on-month (March 2025 vs. February 2025): 0.1%

If so, this would be lower than February’s 0.2% month-on-month number.

  • CPI year-on-year (March 2025 vs. March 2024): 2.6%

If so, this would be lower than February’s 2.8% year-on-year number.

  • Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy prices) month-on-month: 0.3%

If so, this would be higher than February’s 0.2% core month-on-month number.

  • Core CPI year-on-year: 3.0%

If so, this would be lower than February’s 3.1% core year-on-year number.

US stagflation fears are running rampant across US stock markets as we head into the weekend and is set to persist into the coming week.

NOTE: Stagflation is when inflation remains high, at a time when economic growth is sluggish.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if the CPI numbers come in higher-than-expected, lending credence to a stagflation scenario.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if the CPI numbers come in lower-than-expected, easing stagflation fears.

 

3) Friday, April 11th: US earnings season kicks off with Wall Street banks

Banking titans such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo are due to report their respective Q1 earnings a week from today.

However, markets are set to look past the backward-looking reported figures, and instead focus on the earnings outlook for these major US banks, in light of stagflation/recession risks.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if these banking giants sound the alarm about a looming stagflation/recession for the world’s largest economy.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if these banking giants remain confident about their respective earnings and the broader US economic growth narrative, despite President Trump’s tariff shocker.

 

But wait, there’s more.

Beyond the 3 above-listed events, note that the coming week will also be peppered with Fed Speak.

At least 7 different Fed officials are set to make scheduled speeches in the week ahead.

  • BEARISH: US stock indexes could fall further if these Fed officials, especially those speaking after the CPI print, say they are more hesitant to cut interest rates this year as tariffs may reignite US inflation.
  • BULLISH: US stock indexes could rebound if these Fed officials view the potential inflationary impact from US tariffs as being “transitory”, in turn allowing the Fed to eventually cut rates later this year.

 

 

US500 in focus

FXTM’s US500 tracks the S&P 500 – the most widely-used benchmark for US stock markets.

At the time of writing, the US500 is testing support around the big 5,200 level.

From a technical perspective, it appears to have met the textbook threshold for “oversold” conditions, as its 14-day relative strength has dropped below the 30 line.

This suggests a near-term technical pullback could be in order (depending on how today’s NFP and Powell speech pan out).

S&P 500 falls sharply further into technical correction

 

  • BEARISH: If the downside momentum persists over the coming week, the US500 may fall to the big, round 5k level – a level last seen 12 months ago (April 2024).

The US500 at the 5,000 level would put it within spitting distance of a ‘bear market”!

NOTE: A “bear market” is when prices have fallen 20% from its recent peak. 
A 20% drop from the US500’s all-time intraday high of 6151.3 (on February 19th, 2025) would be 4921.04.

 

  • BULLISH: If there’s an abrupt turnaround in risk sentiment, perhaps by way of an easing of trade war/stagflation/recession fears, that could see the US500 recover back to 5400.

 

 

Over the long term …

Wall Street experts still predict the US stock markets to recover eventually by this time next year, with the aggregated 12-month target price for the S&P 500 now standing at 6822.87.

If those long-term predictions come true …

That would mark a new record high for the S&P 500/US500, and a whopping 26.4% in potential upside over the coming year.

However, before it can presumably get there, traders must first battle through the twists and turns in the days ahead pertaining to the Trump-led trade war.

Although market fears are still running high, and risks still aplenty, there are bound to be sizeable trading opportunities amidst all the market volatility expected in the coming week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Stock Market News
04 Apr

Today, investors focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls labor market report

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 3.98% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 4.84%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) closed negative 5.97%. The US indices suffered their biggest one-day drop since 2020 after US President Donald Trump announced comprehensive trade tariffs, sparking fears of an all-out trade war that could lead to a global recession. On Wednesday, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, imposing a 10% levy on all imports and significantly raising rates for countries deemed “bad players.” China will face an additional 34% tariffs on top of the 20% duties already in place. For the European Union, Japan, and other countries, tariffs will range from 20% to 49%. The broad tariffs will go into effect on April 5, and the country-specific tariff increases will begin on April 9. Trump has justified the tariffs by citing unfair trade practices and currency manipulation, arguing that the measures will rejuvenate American industry and reduce the national debt.

Today, the US will release important data on the US labor market, namely the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Analysts expect that the number of new jobs (NFP) will amount to 139k (slowing down from 151k last month). The unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%, and average wage growth will be 4.1% y/y, the same as in February. If the data comes out in line with analysts’ expectations, then a slight weakening of the US dollar, moderate support for gold, and a neutral/positive stock market would be the most likely scenario. A dovish scenario will occur if NFP data shows a sharp decline, with unemployment rising. Such data will indicate a sharp cooling of the labor market, and the market will expect a more aggressive Fed rate cut. In such a scenario, the US dollar would weaken sharply, which would have a positive impact on risk assets such as the euro and British pound sterling, as well as on carry trade currencies — the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

The Mexican peso strengthened to 19.97 per US dollar, thanks to Mexico’s exemption from the broader reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Trump. The exemption gives Mexico a comparative advantage over major trading partners such as China, the EU, and Japan, which face high duties, reducing trade uncertainty and boosting investor confidence.

Equity markets in Europe mostly fell yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 3.01%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 3.31%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) Index lost 1.19%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.55%. Frankfurt’s DAX Index lost 3% on Thursday, the biggest daily decline since July 2024, as sharp losses in European and global markets. The global sell-off was triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policy. The new “reciprocal tariffs” include a 10% prime rate on all imports from the United States, a 20% tariff on goods from the European Union, and a 25 percent levy on imported cars. Most sectors saw significant falls, with sportswear giants Adidas and Puma leading the way, falling more than 11%. Banks, technology companies, and auto stocks also came under significant pressure.

The Swiss franc strengthened to 0.87 per US dollar, the highest level since early November 2024, as investors rushed into safe-haven assets in response to US President Donald Trump’s more aggressive-than-expected tariffs on major trading partners. As part of his “retaliatory tariffs” strategy, President Trump imposed a 31% tax on Swiss imports, with the US accounting for a significant 19% of Swiss exports. The new tariffs are likely to hurt economic growth and inflation in Switzerland, increasing the likelihood that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will cut its discount rate to zero in June, compared to previous expectations of keeping it at 0.25%.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $66 a barrel on Friday, extending a more than 6% drop from the previous session, amid continued pressure from OPEC+ and concerns over global trade. Eight key OPEC+ producers agreed to raise output by 411,000 barrels a day next month, well above the expected 140,000 and faster than planned. The group called the increase “equivalent to three monthly increases.” It comes amid broader market turmoil caused by higher-than-expected US tariffs announced on Wednesday, which prompted retaliatory measures from major economies. While energy imports remain unaffected, fears of a global trade war could slow economic growth and reduce fuel demand.

Asian markets were also trading lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.77%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.13%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.52%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.94%.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,396.52 −274.45 (−4.84%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,545.93 −1,679.39 (−3.98%)

DAX (DE40) 21,717.39 −673.45 (−3.01%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,474.74 −133.74 (−1.55%)

USD Index 101.94 −1.87 (−1.80%)

News feed for: 2025.04.04

  • Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:25 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
04 Apr

USD/JPY collapses to a 6-month low: safe-haven assets in demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

USD/JPY is at a six-month low near 145.57 on Friday after posting a 2% gain in the previous session.

Key factors driving the USD/JPY movement

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping duties have fuelled demand for safe-haven assets. This week, Trump announced a 10% base tariff on all imports, set to take effect on 5 April. Around 60 countries are expected to face higher duties, including China (54% tariff), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), India (27%) and Vietnam (46%).

The market reacted quickly and powerfully. A new wave of tariff measures signals potentially uncontained inflation and sluggish global GDP growth. At the same time, demand increased across the full spectrum of safe-haven assets, including the yen.

Statistics from Japan showed that personal spending fell less than expected in February, suggesting some resilience in the economy.

The 2025 baseline scenario suggests that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this year, although uncertainty surrounding global trade and domestic economic conditions casts a shadow over the outlook.

Technical outlook: USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has breached the 147.60 level to the downside and continues to form a wave towards the 144.76 level. The target is local. After reaching it, a correction to 147.60 is possible. Once the correction is complete, a further wave down to 144.12 is likely. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around 147.60. Following the downside breakout, the development of the third wave is underway. The target is at 144.76. Once this is reached, a corrective wave is likely. The first correction target is at 146.06. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below 50 and heading directly towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war fears escalating and demand for safe-haven assets surging, USD/JPY remains under pressure. Technical indicators suggest further downside, though a short-term correction is possible. Traders should monitor 144.76 as the next key support, with BoJ policy signals and global trade developments likely to determine the pair’s next significant move.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Apr

GBP/USD Hits 21-Week High: The Pound Outperforms Its Peers

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3064 on Thursday, marking a 2.46% gain over the past four weeks and a 2.87% increase against the US dollar over the last 12 months. The British pound continues to strengthen, outperforming many of its major counterparts.

Key factors driving the GBP/USD rally

The UK is closely monitoring developments in US tariffs, which could have significant implications for its economy. While the new tariffs potentially threaten global trade, the UK remains in a relatively favourable position compared to the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico.

Reasons for the UK’s advantage:

  • The US baseline tariff rate for the UK is just 10% – the lowest among major US trading partners
  • The UK’s trade relationship with the US is relatively balanced, with a smaller share of reciprocal trade, reducing immediate risks

However, uncertainty looms. Policymakers anticipate a possible reversal of US tariffs, but the broader impact remains unpredictable, whether on inflation, global GDP, or trade dynamics.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD 

H4 chart perspective

  • The pair has broken through 1.2988, surging towards 1.3095
  • A pullback to retest 1.2988 (now acting as support) could occur before another upward push towards 1.3103.
  • MACD confirmation: the signal line remains above zero and is trending upwards, supporting bullish momentum

H1 chart perspective

  • After consolidating around 1.2988, the pair broke higher, targeting 1.3095
  • Once this level is reached, a correction back to 1.2988 could follow
  • Stochastic indicator: the signal line is above 80 but turning downwards, suggesting a potential near-term exhaustion.

Conclusion

The pound’s resilience against the dollar reflects both fundamental strength and technical momentum. While the UK benefits from a less exposed trade stance, traders should watch tariff developments and key technical levels to gauge the next significant move.

interest rate decisions.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
02 Apr

Most of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration take effect today

By JustMarkets

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was down 0.03%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.38%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) added 0.82%. Uncertainty over President Trump’s upcoming tariffs and weak economic data have kept investors on edge. On Wednesday, the White House will announce retaliatory tariffs and other fees. The possibility of 20% tariffs on most US imports has raised concerns, and analysts warn that the market may underestimate trade risks.

Despite ongoing trade uncertainty, the Mexican peso (MXN) is showing resilience, supported by easing US recession fears and President Sheinbaum’s success in securing a softer tariff stance from Washington. While the recent 50bps rate cut by the Bank of Mexico and signals of further easing could put pressure on the currency, stable local macroeconomic indicators such as business confidence holding above contractionary levels and stable gross fixed investment are keeping downside risks in check.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.70%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed 1.10% higher, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.61%. Eurozone inflation eased to 2.2% y/y, which may support expectations of an ECB rate cut, though risks from trade tensions remain.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell to $33.8 an ounce, retreating from a five-month high of $34.58 reached on March 28, as investors awaited President Donald Trump’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs to take effect on Wednesday. Market participants weighed fears of an escalating global trade war that could dampen industrial demand for silver against its appeal as a safe-haven source amid growing concerns about slowing economic growth.

WTI crude oil prices fell to around $71.2 a barrel on Tuesday amid concerns that President Donald Trump’s widening trade war will dampen energy demand. Trump has said the retaliatory tariffs he will announce on Wednesday will apply to all countries, not just those with the biggest trade imbalance with the US. However, potential supply risks could cushion oil’s fall after Trump’s latest threats against Russia and Iran.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.02%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.27%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.38%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.04%. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that manufacturing activity in China could come under pressure in the coming months due to additional trade barriers.

The New Zealand Dollar rose to USD 0.572 on Wednesday, posting gains for the second consecutive session despite the upcoming US announcement of retaliatory tariffs today. While New Zealand’s direct trade with the US is minimal, its economy remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in global trade due to its heavy reliance on exports. Domestically, expectations of further policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remain, with markets expecting at least two rate cuts before the end of the year.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,633.07 +21.22 (+0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,989.96 −11.80 (−0.03%)

DAX (DE40) 22,539.98 +376.49 (+1.70%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,634.80 +51.99 (+0.61%)

USD Index 104.22 +0.01 (+0.01%)

News feed for: 2025.04.02

  • US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

 

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
02 Apr

EUR/USD Declines as Markets Await Signals of a Renewed Trade War

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual decline, erasing its recent technical rebound and retreating to 1.0795. Traders remain cautious as key economic and political developments loom.

Key factors driving the EUR/USD movement

Today (2 April) marks a critical date for global markets as new US tariffs on trading partners take effect. Investors are closely watching for President Donald Trump’s final decision, which could escalate trade tensions.

Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that these tariffs could serve as leverage, pushing partner countries to negotiate lower duties. Meanwhile, recent US economic data has added to the uncertainty:

  • Manufacturing activity contracted in March (the first decline of 2025)
  • Prices increased for the second consecutive month, reflecting tariff-driven inflationary pressures
  • Job openings declined in February, though layoffs remained low, indicating a potential cooling in the labour market

Market focus now shifts to Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s next interest rate decisions.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD

H4 chart analysis

  • The pair declined to 1.0784 before correcting to 1.0825
  • The next likely move is a continued downward trend towards 1.0695 (first target)
  • A pullback to 1.0825 (testing from below) may follow (second target)
  • MACD confirmation: the signal line remains below zero, pointing sharply downward and supporting further bearish momentum

H1 chart analysis

  • The pair is forming the fifth leg of a downward wave, targeting 1.0695
  • A short-term decline toward 1.0715 is expected today, possibly followed by a correction to 1.0772
  • Stochastic oscillator confirmation: the signal line is below 50 and trending downward towards 20, reinforcing bearish momentum

 

Conclusion

With trade war risks resurfacing and mixed US economic signals, the EUR/USD remains under pressure. A break below 1.0695 could open the door for deeper declines, while a rebound above 1.0825 may signal temporary relief. Traders should monitor US employment data and trade policy updates for fresh directional cues.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
02 Apr

“Liberation Day”: How markets might react to Trump’s April 2nd tariff announcement?

By ForexTime 

  • Trump set to announce “reciprocal” tariffs on Wednesday, April 2nd.
  • Markets fear worst-case scenario: average US tariff hiked to 35%
  • Higher tariffs may lead to US stagflation: revived inflation, slower economic growth
  • Tariff shocker could see US dollar and stock indexes fall, gold soars
  • Less-than-feared tariffs could see US dollar and stocks rebound

 

This Wednesday, US President Donald Trump is set to upend global trade with “reciprocal” tariffs.

Here we break down what traders and investors need to know ahead of such a pivotal announcement.

 

When will Trump announce “reciprocal” tariffs?

President Trump is set to announce his next batch of tariffs on Wednesday, April 2nd at 4:00 PM EST / 8:00PM GMT.

POTUS has even labelled April 2nd as “Liberation Day” in a social media post on March 20th:

liberation Day Trump's Truth Social post

 

 

What do “reciprocal” tariffs mean?

As the word suggests, the US is likely looking to charge its trade partners the same tariffs as they charge the US.

This suggests “an eye for an eye” type of approach.

However, it may not be that straightforward.

When deciding the revised % tax rate to “reciprocate” with, the US administration may also incorporate the cost of non-tariff barriers, such as:

– regulations

– other taxes such as VAT charged domestically in other countries

– even currency exchange (forex/FX rates)

In other words, it’s hard to predict what the final % number will be, prior to the April 2nd announcement.

 

 

Wait, hasn’t Trump already announced tariffs this year?

Yes.

Since his second inauguration on January 20th, 2025, President Trump has imposed:

– 20% tax on all Chinese goods (10% in February, doubled in March)

– 25% tax on most imports from Canada and Mexico (delayed until April)

– 25% tax on steel and aluminum (imposed on March 12th)

– 25% tax on auto imports (starting on April 3rd with fully assembled imported vehicles; scope of taxable goods to be expanded in early May)

But the April 2nd announcement is the next “big one”, with potentially larger and broader tariffs to be announced.

Hence, the palpable tensions leading up to this mid-week announcement.

Markets have been especially volatile in recent weeks, with traders and investors guessing what Trump’s next tariff salvo would actually entail.

Even the S&P 500 dipped into a “technical correction”, TWICE, in March 2025!

 

Why is Trump doing this?

As a overall goal, Trump is looking to “fix” the trade imbalances between the US and its trading partners.

With these tariffs, Trump intends to:

– revive manufacturing jobs in the US

– raising revenue for the government

– align the policies of foreign governments with his administration’s goals

 

 

Who might be targeted?

In short, it’s not yet clear.

We know that President Trump has often targeted major trading partners, including China, the EU, Canada and Mexico.

However, recent weeks have seen various government officials, including Trump himself, use varying terms to describe which countries are set to be on the receiving end of these “reciprocal tariffs”.

These include phrases like “all countries”, to “country-specific”, to “15% of all countries”, and even “dirty 15”.

Just for context, it’s estimated that 15 countries accounted for over 75% of all US imports in 2024.

This “dirty 15” list may include:

– China

– Mexico

– Vietnam

– Ireland

– Germany

– Taiwan

– Japan

– South Korea

– Canada

– India

– Thailand

– Italy

– Switzerland

– Malaysia

– Indonesia

 

 

What’s the worst-case scenario?

As a catch-all headline number …

Bloomberg economists predict that the “maximum” damage could raise the average US tariff to 35%!

That would be 28 percentage points higher from the mid-single digit average at present (as of March 2025, after taking into account the already-imposed tariffs so far in Trump’s second term as POTUS).

For reference, when President Trump kicked off his second term, the average US tariff rate was around 2.5%.

 

 

Why are markets concerned?

Overall, Trump’s next tariff salvo may well be the most protectionist move by the US government in about a century (since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930)!

Higher US tariffs could actually reignite US inflation, while slowing down its economic growth.

According to a model by the Federal Reserve, US GDP could be negatively impacted by 4%, while lifting inflation by 2.5% over the next 2-3 years.

This points to a “stagflation”!

Furthermore, a slowdown in the world’s largest economy is bound to weigh down the global economy in tandem.

 

 

But wait, there could be more tariffs ahead!

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on March 31st that President Trump may look to also impose sector-specific duties further down the line.

These could impact imports of:

– copper

– pharmaceuticals

– semiconductors

– lumber

However, these sectoral duties are apparently not the main focus on April 2nd.

 

 

How might markets react to the April 2nd announcement?

  • If Trump confirms the market’s “worst case” scenario, we could see:

– US assets FALLING (e.g. US500, US30, NAS100, US dollar etc.)
This would be based on the notion that US economic growth will be impacted negatively from these hiked tariffs.

– Safe havens SOAR (e.g. gold, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc) and even potential gains for some non-USD currencies (such as the British Pound, with the UK seemingly not front-and-center in Trump’s tariff cross-hairs)

 

  • However, if President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs package prove to be not-as-bad-as-feared, that could see:

– US assets REBOUND (e.g. US500, US30, NAS100, US dollar etc.)
This would be based on the notion that the tariffs’ impact on US economic growth would be less severe.

– Safe havens DIP (e.g. gold, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc) and even potential declines for some non-USD currencies (such as the British Pound) which have climbed as money flowed away from the US dollar in recent weeks.

 

 

Although uncertainty is running high leading up to the announcement, one thing is for sure …

Wednesday, April 2nd 2025 is set to be a big day for governments, businesses, investors, and traders around the world

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Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
01 Apr

The RBA expectedly kept interest rates unchanged. Oil rose to a one-month high

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 1.00%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.55%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 0.02%. Investors remain on edge, facing growing concerns about economic growth amid escalating trade tensions. Uncertainty over trade policy impacted sentiment after Trump announced broader tariffs than previously expected, including a 25% tax on all non-US manufactured vehicles that will take effect on April 2. The market anxiety caused traders to turn their attention to defensive assets.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.44 per US dollar, retreating from a one-month high of 1.426 reached on March 26, amid rising trade tensions and the looming threat of US tariffs. This aggressive US stance risks undermining Canada’s trade surplus as it potentially negates the benefits of the 2018 trade agreement. In anticipation of further complications, including possible retaliatory measures from the Canadian government, and amid weak GDP data and narrowing yield differentials driven by expectations of a looser Bank of Canada policy, market participants recalibrated risk in an environment where the trade conflict shows no signs of immediate de-escalation.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.58%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.31%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 0.88%. Uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs contributed to the negative sentiment. Meanwhile, a preliminary estimate of German consumer price inflation fell to 2.2% in March 2025, the lowest since November 2024, in line with market expectations. On the corporate front, stocks of automakers, banks, and technology companies saw the biggest declines.

WTI crude oil prices rose to around $71.6 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains for the second straight session and near the highest level in more than a month, amid concerns over possible supply disruptions following US President Donald Trump’s latest threats against Russia and Iran. Trump has vowed to impose secondary tariffs of 25-50% on buyers of Russian oil if he believes Moscow is hindering his efforts to end the war in Ukraine by putting pressure on key importers such as India and China. He also threatened Iran with secondary tariffs and bombing until it signs an agreement to give up nuclear weapons.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) sharply fell by 4.05%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.56%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 1.31% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.74%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the monetary rate unchanged at 4.1% at its April meeting, leaving borrowing costs unchanged after a 25 basis point cut at its February meeting, in line with market expectations. The board noted that monetary policy is well-placed to respond to international developments should they have a material impact on Australian activity and inflation.

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March 2025 from February’s 50.8 and beat expectations of 51.1, the highest reading since last November, with output growth accelerating thanks to a steady increase in new orders amid improving demand conditions.

The Bank of Japan Tankan Index, which measures sentiment among large manufacturers, fell to 12 points in the first quarter of 2025 from 14 in the previous quarter, the lowest in a year, as concerns over US tariffs dampened sentiment. The decline adds uncertainty to the outlook for future interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, which could affect the timing of further policy adjustments.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,611.85 +30.91 (+0.55%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,001.76 +417.86 (+1.00%)

DAX (DE40) 22,163.49 −298.03 (−1.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,582.81 −76.04 (−0.88%)

USD Index 104.17 +0.13 (+0.12%)

News feed for: 2025.04.01

  • Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
  • Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+3);
  • Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3)
  •  Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
31 Mar

World stock indices sell off under the weight of new tariffs

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.69% (for the week -1.41%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.97% (for the week -2.40%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) was down 2.61% (for the week -3.79%). Stocks in the US fell sharply on Friday amid growing concerns about inflation and trade policy uncertainty. Technology giants led the decline, with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta down more than 4% each and Microsoft down 3%. Worries about inflation intensified after the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment data for March showed the highest long-term inflation expectations since 1993. Meanwhile, the Core PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, rose by 2.8% in February, exceeding expectations, and consumer spending rose by 0.4%. Investors expected further trade shocks as Trump’s 25% tariff on automobiles takes effect this week, raising fears of retaliation from key trading partners.

Bank of America expects a challenging reporting season, projecting a 1% decline in first-quarter revenue, down three percentage points from the previous quarter and 3% below consensus estimates.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.43 per US dollar amid rising trade tensions and weak GDP data weighing on the Loonie. Concerns stem from the prospect of additional US tariffs on Canadian auto parts and related exports. Measures could extend to key sectors such as auto components, raw materials, and lumber. Adding to this uncertainty, Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that Canada is prepared to take retaliatory trade measures, adding to the trade conflict. Meanwhile, uncertainty over Bank of Canada policy — amid preliminary data on likely stagnant GDP growth in February — has led to expectations of looser monetary policy compared to the US Federal Reserve, further narrowing the yield differential.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.96% (for the week -2.66%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.93% (for the week -2.33%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.84% (for the week -0.89%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.08% (for the week +0.14%). European equities closed lower on Friday, continuing to be impacted by concerns over global economic growth following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement and less-than-encouraging US economic data, including PCE Core Price Index data. Inflation data in Spain and France showed weaker-than-expected results, with French inflation holding steady at 0.9% and Spanish inflation falling to 2.2%.

WTI crude oil prices fell by 0.8% on Friday to hit $69.4 per barrel, on concerns that ongoing trade tensions, especially between the US and key trading partners, could trigger a global recession. Despite this, oil prices recorded their third consecutive weekly gain, helped by US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran. The US crude stockpile data showed a 3.3 million barrel decline, indicating continued strong demand. The OPEC+ group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will begin a gradual increase in production in April, and reports suggest the group is likely to continue raising output in May.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.91%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.36%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.16%. The Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) fell nearly 4% on Monday to its lowest level in six months, as investors reacted to weakness on Wall Street and prepared for new US tariffs that will take effect this week. President Donald Trump is set to impose 25% tariffs on imported cars, a major blow to Japan’s key auto export sector, and outlined plans for retaliatory trade duties. Domestically, investors digested mixed economic data, with industrial production in February beating expectations and retail sales falling short of projections. All sectors declined, with sharp losses in the technology, consumer discretionary, and industrial sectors.

South Korea, China, and Japan held their first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to promote regional trade as the three Asian export powers suffer from tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. The dialogue aims to strengthen the implementation of the RCEP, in which all three countries are participating, and create a framework for enhanced trade cooperation among the three countries.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,580.94 −112.37 (−1.97%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,583.90 −715.80 (−1.69%)

DAX (DE40) 22,461.52 −217.22 (−0.96%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,658.85 −7.27 (−0.08%)

USD Index 104.01 −0.32 (−0.31%)

News feed for: 2025.03.31

  • Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
30 Mar

Speculators add to Japanese & European Bets while US Dollar & Commodity Currencies Bets Slide

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound Sterling (14,881 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,048 contracts), the Euro (6,100 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,087 contracts), the Japanese Yen (2,412 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (280 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,997 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,218 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,123 contracts), Bitcoin (-662 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-372 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

RoundUp: Speculators continued to add to Japanese & European currencies while US Dollar & Commodity currencies see lower bets

The speculative landscape for the currency futures this week continued to be a mixed bag with some major currencies seeing sentiment gains versus the US Dollar while others continued to see weak sentiment levels persist.

The US Dollar Index futures saw slightly higher speculator contracts this week with a small gain of 280 contracts. But overall, the US Dollar Index bets have fallen in three out of the past five weeks and by a total of -9,300 contracts over these past five weeks, bringing the total bullish position to just +7,468 contracts (down by more than 50% of 3 weeks ago). The Dollar Index price has remained in a short-term downtrend that started in the new year and has taken the price from over 109.00 to the current level of approximately 104.00. The 102.50 and the very significant level of 100.00 still linger below as major support barriers if the downtrend continues.

The Euro speculator positions have continued to see positive sentiment with gains in six straight weeks and the overall position has risen by +129,950 contracts in the last six weeks through Tuesday. The Euro standing for speculators is at the highest level since September after a 20-week spell in bearish territory from October to early March. The Euro futures price trades around the 1.0825 level currently, up from around the 1.0250 levels to end 2024 but would need to breakthrough the tough 1.1250 resistance to see a strong breakout to the upside and perhaps, a new Euro bull market.

The British pound sterling led the currencies in bullish bets on the week and overall, the GBP speculator positions have risen for eight straight weeks through Tuesday. This has brought the overall spec standing to a +44,283 contract bullish position – the highest since November. The GBP futures price has been on a bullish run since the beginning of the new year and is currently right at a significant overhead resistance level of 1.3000. The test of this level will determine the next path for the GBP as a breakthrough above 1.3000 could see a retest of the 2024 high (just below 1.3500) or we could see a breakdown and testing of lower levels (200-weekly ma at 1.2715 & previous support around 1.2500-1.2650).

The Japanese yen speculators boosted their bets this week for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks with a total +154,787 contract gain over that time. This week’s spec level is the third highest level on record at a total of +125,376 contracts for the yen and demonstrates how bullish speculators are on the currency. However, it remains to be seen if this level of sentiment can propel the JPY to higher price levels. The yen remains in a historically weak position versus the US Dollar as the USDJPY trades right around the 150.00 level and the currency pair has been bid up relatively quickly anytime there is a dip below this threshold. There is going to need a sustained push below the 150.00 level to get traction on a yen bullish case.

The Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars (commodity currencies) are all in similar situations currently in terms of speculator positioning. All three sport strength scores (current levels compared to last 3-years of spec bets) of 30 or under with the Canadian dollar at 30, Australian at 21 and the New Zealand currency at 16. Recently, the New Zealand dollar speculator positions fell to an all-time record low of -55,765 contracts on March 4th. Perhaps, the worst of the sentiment is over for these currencies in this down cycle but we would need to see a sustained turning of the bearish positions in conjunction with price trends coming out of the deep downtrends all three currencies are in now.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (97 percent) and the Brazilian Real (91 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (77 percent), the Mexican Peso (59 percent) and the British Pound (56 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (21 percent), the US Dollar Index (22 percent) and the Swiss Franc (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (21.6 percent)
EuroFX (53.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (51.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (97.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (96.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (29.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (21.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (26.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (90.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (90.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.5 percent)

EuroFX & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the EuroFX (49 percent) and the Brazilian Real (37 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (34 percent), the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the Mexican Peso (22 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-16.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-15.2 percent)
EuroFX (49.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (32.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (2.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (9.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (37.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (23.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 7,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.74.710.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.131.98.5
– Net Position:7,468-7,945477
– Gross Longs:22,6991,3852,953
– Gross Shorts:15,2319,3302,476
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.278.431.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.216.7-7.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,525 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.255.812.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.570.87.0
– Net Position:65,525-100,31634,791
– Gross Longs:189,796375,75381,743
– Gross Shorts:124,271476,06946,952
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.747.050.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.5-47.823.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.025.516.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.952.013.5
– Net Position:44,283-50,6826,399
– Gross Longs:109,01648,84332,226
– Gross Shorts:64,73399,52525,827
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.041.275.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.3-26.741.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.830.614.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.675.311.4
– Net Position:125,376-135,74010,364
– Gross Longs:160,47492,99944,965
– Gross Shorts:35,098228,73934,601
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.33.986.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.2-19.7-8.4

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.982.612.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.728.822.2
– Net Position:-37,59346,102-8,509
– Gross Longs:4,17870,83010,519
– Gross Shorts:41,77124,72819,028
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.774.642.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-12.527.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -129,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,048 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.483.58.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.533.612.5
– Net Position:-129,534140,196-10,662
– Gross Longs:17,948234,77424,617
– Gross Shorts:147,48294,57835,279
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.973.812.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-9.22.8

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -77,446 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.666.312.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.620.615.7
– Net Position:-77,44682,329-4,883
– Gross Longs:28,124119,38123,317
– Gross Shorts:105,57037,05228,200
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.379.036.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.47.1-0.1

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -41,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.378.55.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.926.46.5
– Net Position:-41,56742,865-1,298
– Gross Longs:13,43564,6174,082
– Gross Shorts:55,00221,7525,380
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.482.336.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.0-9.69.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.128.03.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.170.73.4
– Net Position:59,039-58,694-345
– Gross Longs:89,47738,5564,376
– Gross Shorts:30,43897,2504,721
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.944.020.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-23.312.4

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -372 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.227.03.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.266.01.2
– Net Position:40,349-42,5532,204
– Gross Longs:70,03029,4113,556
– Gross Shorts:29,68171,9641,352
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.69.033.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.4-38.710.4

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -662 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,841 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:84.03.34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.97.24.3
– Net Position:1,179-1,150-29
– Gross Longs:24,3769451,207
– Gross Shorts:23,1972,0951,236
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.034.713.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.7-36.3-6.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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