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Currency Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (8,065 contracts) with the EuroFX (7,667 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,603 contracts), Swiss Franc (2,608 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,506 contracts) and Bitcoin (588 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,401 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,776 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,642 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-727 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-988 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the British pound sterling. Large speculative pound Sterling positions gained this week for a second consecutive week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks.

Sterling weekly positions have now increased by a total of +36,677 contracts over the past seven-week period. This bullish turn in bets has taken the overall net speculator position from a total of -24,084 contracts on March 28th to a total of +12,593 contracts this week, the best level since November of 2021. The sterling position has been in a bullish level for five straight weeks after a streak of sixty straight weeks in bearish territory through April 11th.

The sterling’s front-month future’s price has been on the uptrend since bottoming in September with a low at the 1.0392 exchange rate. This week’s closing price of 1.2457 is approximately 20 percent higher than that September low.

Helping boost the sterling in recent months is the rising interest rate as the Bank of England increased it’s Bank Rate to 4.5 percent at the May 11th meeting. The inflation rate in the UK currently is right around 10 percent (with a target of 2 percent) and investor’s are expecting more rate rises to come, according to ING.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	30,880	25	9,514	41	-12,357	56	2,843	48
EUR	789,930	88	187,089	90	-238,333	10	51,244	61
GBP	247,165	66	12,593	80	-17,729	22	5,136	68
JPY	200,515	47	-64,791	29	76,137	73	-11,346	30
CHF	43,681	48	-1,859	50	2,838	50	-979	54
CAD	161,195	38	-42,990	14	44,533	86	-1,543	19
AUD	167,020	63	-53,594	35	61,902	65	-8,308	32
NZD	36,187	24	-2,075	48	1,943	51	132	52
MXN	254,037	57	73,635	100	-79,465	0	5,830	92
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	50,633	40	33,606	79	-36,899	19	3,293	70
Bitcoin	13,043	56	1,011	95	-1,463	0	452	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (90 percent), British Pound (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (79 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (29 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (40.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.5 percent)
EuroFX (90.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (72.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (48.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.8 percent)
Bitcoin (94.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (84.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (24 percent), the EuroFX (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-8 percent) and Japanese Yen (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (16.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (13.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-24.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (24.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (14.1 percent)
Bitcoin (28.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	9.1	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	49.1	9.1
– Net Position:	9,514	-12,357	2,843
– Gross Longs:	20,669	2,817	5,644
– Gross Shorts:	11,155	15,174	2,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	56.1	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	6.0	8.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 187,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	82.9	5.3
– Net Position:	187,089	-238,333	51,244
– Gross Longs:	258,736	416,383	93,212
– Gross Shorts:	71,647	654,716	41,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	10.0	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-14.7	-0.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	50.8	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	58.0	10.4
– Net Position:	12,593	-17,729	5,136
– Gross Longs:	77,388	125,675	30,873
– Gross Shorts:	64,795	143,404	25,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	22.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-18.1	-1.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	71.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	33.0	18.9
– Net Position:	-64,791	76,137	-11,346
– Gross Longs:	29,494	142,392	26,570
– Gross Shorts:	94,285	66,255	37,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.8	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	11.6	-32.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	42.4	33.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	35.9	35.7
– Net Position:	-1,859	2,838	-979
– Gross Longs:	8,561	18,524	14,600
– Gross Shorts:	10,420	15,686	15,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	49.7	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-13.2	6.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	60.9	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	33.2	20.0
– Net Position:	-42,990	44,533	-1,543
– Gross Longs:	28,514	98,089	30,767
– Gross Shorts:	71,504	53,556	32,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	86.4	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-9.3	-4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -53,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	58.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	21.7	16.8
– Net Position:	-53,594	61,902	-8,308
– Gross Longs:	43,903	98,069	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	97,497	36,167	27,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	65.1	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	18.7	3.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	49.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	43.8	9.8
– Net Position:	-2,075	1,943	132
– Gross Longs:	14,610	17,789	3,695
– Gross Shorts:	16,685	15,846	3,563
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	51.1	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-1.8	-14.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 73,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	43.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	75.0	1.2
– Net Position:	73,635	-79,465	5,830
– Gross Longs:	133,268	111,178	8,968
– Gross Shorts:	59,633	190,643	3,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.3	3.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.4	14.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	87.6	2.4
– Net Position:	33,606	-36,899	3,293
– Gross Longs:	38,661	7,439	4,485
– Gross Shorts:	5,055	44,338	1,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	19.3	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-26.2	13.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.1	1.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	12.5	6.8
– Net Position:	1,011	-1,463	452
– Gross Longs:	10,055	163	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,044	1,626	882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.6	0.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-53.7	-7.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

20 May

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and 5-Year Treasuries

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (286,007 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (39,256 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25,171 contracts), the Eurodollar (18,226 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,539 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (11,548 contracts), and the Fed Funds (7,746 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-103,690 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-13,271 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds

Highlighting the COT bonds data once again this week was an increase in the record bearish speculator positions for both the 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply added to their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Speculators have now added more than -100,000 contracts to the bearish position in each of the past two weeks. There has been a total of -356,734 contracts added to the overall bearish standing in the past five weeks which has taken the position from -496,841 on April 11th to a total new historical record bearish level of -853,575 contracts this week.

Meanwhile, the 5-Year Bond speculator positions only edged slightly lower this week but have now been more bearish for four straight weeks. The last four weeks have added a total of -169,411 contracts to the net speculator level and has brought the current bearish position to a record total of -923,913 contracts.

The 2-Year and 5-Years front-month futures prices were on retreat this week as were most of the bonds across the US Treasury yield curve. The 5-Year price closed at the 108.22 level but remains approximately 3 percent higher from the most recent low hit in October. The 2-Year futures price closed the week at 102.19 and only approximately 1.25 percent higher than the recent low reached in March.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	550,147	0	-36,884	73	39,568	23	-2,684	99
FedFunds	1,585,578	54	-67,571	31	88,368	71	-20,797	50
2-Year	3,164,301	100	-853,575	0	772,391	100	81,184	95
Long T-Bond	1,236,267	67	-61,581	65	-315	10	61,896	94
10-Year	4,718,099	100	-692,442	6	570,703	83	121,739	100
5-Year	5,100,803	100	-923,913	0	872,715	99	51,198	95

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (81 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (60.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.5 percent)
Eurodollar (73.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (81.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (57.8 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the Eurodollar (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (10 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-37 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (11.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-23.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (8.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
Eurodollar (15.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (2.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	60.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	53.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-36,884	39,568	-2,684
– Gross Longs:	155,249	333,675	60,427
– Gross Shorts:	192,133	294,107	63,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	22.7	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-18.5	35.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -166,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 286,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	61.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	59.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-166,821	176,705	-9,884
– Gross Longs:	1,503,562	6,133,861	41,542
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,383	5,957,156	51,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	19.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-2.4	-2.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -67,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	76.7	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	-67,571	88,368	-20,797
– Gross Longs:	69,674	1,216,347	31,381
– Gross Shorts:	137,245	1,127,979	52,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	70.6	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-8.3	-21.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -853,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -103,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -749,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	82.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	58.1	4.6
– Net Position:	-853,575	772,391	81,184
– Gross Longs:	290,539	2,612,188	227,803
– Gross Shorts:	1,144,114	1,839,797	146,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.3	35.3	29.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -923,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -910,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	81.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	64.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-923,913	872,715	51,198
– Gross Longs:	435,965	4,177,142	368,639
– Gross Shorts:	1,359,878	3,304,427	317,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.1	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.3	6.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -692,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 39,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -731,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	76.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	64.0	7.1
– Net Position:	-692,442	570,703	121,739
– Gross Longs:	527,490	3,588,001	454,956
– Gross Shorts:	1,219,932	3,017,298	333,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	82.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	-5.2	25.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -186,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -211,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	62.1	14.3
– Net Position:	-186,427	267,999	-81,572
– Gross Longs:	173,884	1,340,651	164,624
– Gross Shorts:	360,311	1,072,652	246,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	91.6	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-2.4	6.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.1	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	76.2	9.9
– Net Position:	-61,581	-315	61,896
– Gross Longs:	91,193	941,115	183,809
– Gross Shorts:	152,774	941,430	121,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	10.5	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.1	-29.5	10.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -388,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -400,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	80.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	58.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-388,980	328,975	60,005
– Gross Longs:	97,884	1,192,422	183,052
– Gross Shorts:	486,864	863,447	123,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	65.3	99.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-12.6	5.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

20 May

Palladium Speculators trim bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals this week was Palladium with a gain of 731 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,000 contracts), Silver (-8,545 contracts), Copper (-7,742 contracts), Steel (-524 contracts) and Platinum (-2,261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium speculators trim their bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the improvement in bets for the Palladium speculative positions. Palladium was the only metal with a gain in speculator bets this week and has now risen for two straight weeks. Palladium has also gained in three out of the past five weeks. The current net speculator position of -4,916 contracts is the least bearish standing out of the past fourteen weeks.

The speculator positioning has been improving for Palladium as the strength index score (speculator positioning range of past three years) came out of a bearish extreme position this week for the first time since February 7th. Palladium’s strength index has improved by 16 percentage points over the past six weeks.

Fundamentally, the outlook for Palladium has taken a hit with car manufacturers looking to use Platinum instead of Palladium for parts, especially in electric cars. Despite the pullback from manufacturers, recent reports have shown the both Platinum and Palladium supply will be in deficits this year, possibly putting a floor under prices.

Palladium prices have bounced off of a major support level at $1,400 in recent weeks and closed this week above $1,520. Palladium raced as high as $3,425 in March of 2022 before dropping sharply into a downtrend that has extended into this year. Palladium bulls hope that the recent drop to $1,333 in March marks a new bottom as it coincides with the 2020 pandemic low-point as well.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	521,832	46	179,814	56	-211,557	42	31,743	60
Silver	140,139	26	23,815	52	-37,067	49	13,252	40
Copper	210,415	51	-32,607	0	28,695	98	3,912	43
Palladium	12,761	93	-4,916	20	5,388	82	-472	13
Platinum	73,410	83	25,823	75	-30,405	31	4,582	30

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (75 percent) and Steel (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Silver (52 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.3 percent)
Silver (52.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (64.4 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.9 percent)
Platinum (75.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (80.4 percent)
Palladium (20.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.4 percent)
Steel (60.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.9 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (24 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (-7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-26 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.2 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (-26.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.7 percent)
Platinum (24.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.9 percent)
Palladium (16.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)
Steel (-0.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 179,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	26.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	67.0	4.4
– Net Position:	179,814	-211,557	31,743
– Gross Longs:	255,250	138,322	54,852
– Gross Shorts:	75,436	349,879	23,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	42.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	2.6	21.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	30.7	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	57.2	8.8
– Net Position:	23,815	-37,067	13,252
– Gross Longs:	60,440	43,026	25,607
– Gross Shorts:	36,625	80,093	12,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	49.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-6.8	17.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	47.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	33.9	7.3
– Net Position:	-32,607	28,695	3,912
– Gross Longs:	59,693	100,023	19,241
– Gross Shorts:	92,300	71,328	15,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.8	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.3	28.5	-24.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	28.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	70.3	3.7
– Net Position:	25,823	-30,405	4,582
– Gross Longs:	39,962	21,228	7,282
– Gross Shorts:	14,139	51,633	2,700
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	30.6	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.0	-23.2	10.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	61.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	19.7	12.6
– Net Position:	-4,916	5,388	-472
– Gross Longs:	1,782	7,900	1,136
– Gross Shorts:	6,698	2,512	1,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	82.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-13.6	-6.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	62.4	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,420	4,502	-82
– Gross Longs:	2,997	21,755	185
– Gross Shorts:	7,417	17,253	267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.1	8.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	1.6	-34.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

20 May

Speculator Extremes: MXN Peso, Cocoa, Lean Hogs & 2-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 16th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 73,635 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,603 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 9.6 this week. The speculator position registered -1,697 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 404 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 64,055 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,026 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 94.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 28.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,011 net contracts this week with an increase of 588 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 17.9 this week.

The speculator position was 102,116 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,279 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -28,734 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.8 this week. The speculator position was -29,483 net contracts this week with a drop of -21,208 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -853,575 net contracts this week with a decrease of -103,690 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The S&P500 Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.8 this week. The speculator position was -388,721 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -12,698 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.0 this week. The speculator position was -923,913 net contracts this week with a drop of -13,271 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Opinions

19 May

ChatGPT-powered Wall Street: The benefits and perils of using artificial intelligence to trade stocks and other financial instruments

By Pawan Jain, West Virginia University

Artificial Intelligence-powered tools, such as ChatGPT, have the potential to revolutionize the efficiency, effectiveness and speed of the work humans do.

And this is true in financial markets as much as in sectors like health care, manufacturing and pretty much every other aspect of our lives.

I’ve been researching financial markets and algorithmic trading for 14 years. While AI offers lots of benefits, the growing use of these technologies in financial markets also points to potential perils. A look at Wall Street’s past efforts to speed up trading by embracing computers and AI offers important lessons on the implications of using them for decision-making.

Program trading fuels Black Monday

In the early 1980s, fueled by advancements in technology and financial innovations such as derivatives, institutional investors began using computer programs to execute trades based on predefined rules and algorithms. This helped them complete large trades quickly and efficiently.

Back then, these algorithms were relatively simple and were primarily used for so-called index arbitrage, which involves trying to profit from discrepancies between the price of a stock index – like the S&P 500 – and that of the stocks it’s composed of.

As technology advanced and more data became available, this kind of program trading became increasingly sophisticated, with algorithms able to analyze complex market data and execute trades based on a wide range of factors. These program traders continued to grow in number on the largey unregulated trading freeways – on which over a trillion dollars worth of assets change hands every day – causing market volatility to increase dramatically.

Eventually this resulted in the massive stock market crash in 1987 known as Black Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered what was at the time the biggest percentage drop in its history, and the pain spread throughout the globe.

In response, regulatory authorities implemented a number of measures to restrict the use of program trading, including circuit breakers that halt trading when there are significant market swings and other limits. But despite these measures, program trading continued to grow in popularity in the years following the crash.

HFT: Program trading on steroids

Fast forward 15 years, to 2002, when the New York Stock Exchange introduced a fully automated trading system. As a result, program traders gave way to more sophisticated automations with much more advanced technology: High-frequency trading.

HFT uses computer programs to analyze market data and execute trades at extremely high speeds. Unlike program traders that bought and sold baskets of securities over time to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity – a difference in price of similar securities that can be exploited for profit – high-frequency traders use powerful computers and high-speed networks to analyze market data and execute trades at lightning-fast speeds. High-frequency traders can conduct trades in approximately one 64-millionth of a second, compared with the several seconds it took traders in the 1980s.

These trades are typically very short term in nature and may involve buying and selling the same security multiple times in a matter of nanoseconds. AI algorithms analyze large amounts of data in real time and identify patterns and trends that are not immediately apparent to human traders. This helps traders make better decisions and execute trades at a faster pace than would be possible manually.

Another important application of AI in HFT is natural language processing, which involves analyzing and interpreting human language data such as news articles and social media posts. By analyzing this data, traders can gain valuable insights into market sentiment and adjust their trading strategies accordingly.

Benefits of AI trading

These AI-based, high-frequency traders operate very differently than people do.

The human brain is slow, inaccurate and forgetful. It is incapable of quick, high-precision, floating-point arithmetic needed for analyzing huge volumes of data for identifying trade signals. Computers are millions of times faster, with essentially infallible memory, perfect attention and limitless capability for analyzing large volumes of data in split milliseconds.

And, so, just like most technologies, HFT provides several benefits to stock markets.

These traders typically buy and sell assets at prices very close to the market price, which means they don’t charge investors high fees. This helps ensure that there are always buyers and sellers in the market, which in turn helps to stabilize prices and reduce the potential for sudden price swings.

High-frequency trading can also help to reduce the impact of market inefficiencies by quickly identifying and exploiting mispricing in the market. For example, HFT algorithms can detect when a particular stock is undervalued or overvalued and execute trades to take advantage of these discrepancies. By doing so, this kind of trading can help to correct market inefficiencies and ensure that assets are priced more accurately.

The downsides

But speed and efficiency can also cause harm.

HFT algorithms can react so quickly to news events and other market signals that they can cause sudden spikes or drops in asset prices.

Additionally, HFT financial firms are able to use their speed and technology to gain an unfair advantage over other traders, further distorting market signals. The volatility created by these extremely sophisticated AI-powered trading beasts led to the so-called flash crash in May 2010, when stocks plunged and then recovered in a matter of minutes – erasing and then restoring about $1 trillion in market value.

Since then, volatile markets have become the new normal. In 2016 research, two co-authors and I found that volatility – a measure of how rapidly and unpredictably prices move up and down – increased significantly after the introduction of HFT.

The speed and efficiency with which high-frequency traders analyze the data mean that even a small change in market conditions can trigger a large number of trades, leading to sudden price swings and increased volatility.

In addition, research I published with several other colleagues in 2021 shows that most high-frequency traders use similar algorithms, which increases the risk of market failure. That’s because as the number of these traders increases in the marketplace, the similarity in these algorithms can lead to similar trading decisions.

This means that all of the high-frequency traders might trade on the same side of the market if their algorithms release similar trading signals. That is, they all might try to sell in case of negative news or buy in case of positive news. If there is no one to take the other side of the trade, markets can fail.

Enter ChatGPT

That brings us to a new world of ChatGPT-powered trading algorithms and similar programs. They could take the problem of too many traders on the same side of a deal and make it even worse.

In general, humans, left to their own devices, will tend to make a diverse range of decisions. But if everyone’s deriving their decisions from a similar artificial intelligence, this can limit the diversity of opinion.

Consider an extreme, nonfinancial situation in which everyone depends on ChatGPT to decide on the best computer to buy. Consumers are already very prone to herding behavior, in which they tend to buy the same products and models. For example, reviews on Yelp, Amazon and so on motivate consumers to pick among a few top choices.

Since decisions made by the generative AI-powered chatbot are based on past training data, there would be a similarity in the decisions suggested by the chatbot. It is highly likely that ChatGPT would suggest the same brand and model to everyone. This might take herding to a whole new level and could lead to shortages in certain products and service as well as severe price spikes.

This becomes more problematic when the AI making the decisions is informed by biased and incorrect information. AI algorithms can reinforce existing biases when systems are trained on biased, old or limited data sets. And ChatGPT and similar tools have been criticized for making factual errors.

In addition, since market crashes are relatively rare, there isn’t much data on them. Since generative AIs depend on data training to learn, their lack of knowledge about them could make them more likely to happen.

For now, at least, it seems most banks won’t be allowing their employees to take advantage of ChatGPT and similar tools. Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and several other lenders have already banned their use on trading-room floors, citing privacy concerns.

But I strongly believe banks will eventually embrace generative AI, once they resolve concerns they have with it. The potential gains are too significant to pass up – and there’s a risk of being left behind by rivals.

But the risks to financial markets, the global economy and everyone are also great, so I hope they tread carefully.

About the Author:

Pawan Jain, Assistant Professor of Finance, West Virginia University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Programming Stock Market News

19 May

Week Ahead: 4 Reasons To Closely Watch Gold

By ForexTime

Gold prices could see some heightened volatility over the coming week due to US debt limit negotiations, the Fed minutes and key US economic data.

The past few days have certainly been rough for the precious metal with prices heading for their biggest weekly drop since February.

Before we take a deep dive into what factors may influence gold in the week ahead, here is a list of key economic reports and events to keep a close eye on:

Monday, May 22

CNY: China loan prime rates
EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
USD: Fed speeches

Tuesday, May 23

EUR: Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing & Services PMI
GBP: S&P Global/ CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI
USD: US new home sales, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speech

Wednesday, May 24

NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision
EUR: Germany May IFO business climate
GBP: UK April CPI, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speech
USD: Fed minutes

Thursday, May 25

EUR: Germany Q1 GDP (final)
USD: US initial jobless claims, Q1 GDP Annualised QoQ (second)

Friday, May 26

AUD: Australia April retail sales
JPY: Japan May Tokyo CPI
USD: US April PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Now, here are 4 reasons why we’re keeping a close eye on Gold:

US Debt limit negotiations

The US Debt limit saga remains a hot topic that continues to influence global market sentiment.

To be clear, markets are not expecting the United States to default with traders pricing a less than 10% chance of it happening. Recent reports suggest that US President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy are edging closer to a deal, with hopes rising over an agreement in principle by this weekend.

Gold prices could tumble further if there is a breakthrough in negotiations with the jump in risk appetite and potential boost to the dollar dragging prices towards the $1900 level.
Any hiccups in debt ceiling talks or further delays that shrink the window to strike a deal could send investors rushing back towards gold safe embrace. A wave of risk aversion and dollar weakness could push prices back above the psychological $2000 level.

Click here for more information about the US debt ceiling crisis.

Fed minutes and speeches

The minutes from the latest Federal Reserve policy meeting and speeches from Fed officials could offer more clues about the central bank’s next move.

After raising interest rates by 25 basis points in May, the Federal Reserve signalled a potential pause. The minutes could offer more insight into the thinking of policymakers and how united they were around the idea of 5.25% being the peak level of rates. Should the minutes strike an overall dovish note, this may reinforce expectations around the Fed being done with rate hikes with the next move being a cut. However, a divide between participants could leave room for future hikes, especially if economic data warrants. It may also be wise to watch out for speeches from Fed officials in the first half of the week.

Gold bulls could fight back if the Fed minutes come across as dovish, with cautious Fed officials supporting any upside gains.
Any whiff of hawks or mention of additional hikes in the minutes may drag gold prices, with hawkish speeches from Fed officials rubbing salt into the wound.

US April PCE report

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will be closely scrutinized by investors, especially after the central bank stressed that incoming data would influence monetary policy decisions.

Markets expect the April PCE report to show headline prices accelerated 0.3% month-over-month after March’s 0.1% increase while the core PCE deflator is forecast to rise 0.3%, same as March. The core personal consumption expenditures price index for projected to rise 4.5% year-over-year in April, down from the 4.6% seen in March.

Ultimately, more signs of cooling inflationary pressures could strengthen the argument around the Fed cutting interest rates late into the year. Traders are currently pricing in a 95% probability of a 25-basis point cut by the November Fed meeting, according to Fed funds futures.

Gold breaches key support

After securing a solid daily close below the $1970 level, bears have the freedom to run rampant in the week ahead.

Sustained weakness below this level could open a path back towards $1945 and $1900, respectively. If bulls are able to fight back and claw prices back above the psychological $2000 level, gold could test $2032 and $2045. Although the technicals favour further downside, the fundamentals could easily throw bulls a lifeline. Watch this space.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions

17 May

War rooms and bailouts: How banks and the Fed are preparing for a US default – and the chaos expected to follow

By John W. Diamond, Rice University

Convening war rooms, planning speedy bailouts and raising house-on-fire alarm bells: Those are a few of the ways the biggest banks and financial regulators are preparing for a potential default on U.S. debt.

“You hope it doesn’t happen, but hope is not a strategy – so you prepare for it,” Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, the nation’s second-biggest lender, said in a television interview.

The doomsday planning is a reaction to a lack of progress in talks between President Joe Biden and House Republicans over raising the US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling – another round of negotiations took place on May 16, 2023. Without an increase in the debt limit, the U.S. can’t borrow more money to cover its bills – all of which have already been agreed to by Congress – and in practical terms that means a default.

What happens if a default occurs is an open question, but economists – including me – generally expect financial chaos as access to credit dries up and borrowing costs rise quickly for companies and consumers. A severe and prolonged global economic recession would be all but guaranteed, and the reputation of the U.S. and the dollar as beacons of stability and safety would be further tarnished.

But how do you prepare for an event that many expect would trigger the worst global recession since the 1930s?

Preparing for panic

Jamie Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, the biggest U.S. bank, told Bloomberg he’s been convening a weekly war room to discuss a potential default and how the bank should respond. The meetings are likely to become more frequent as June 1 – the date on which the U.S. might run out of cash – nears.

Dimon described the wide range of economic and financial effects that the group must consider such as the impact on “contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients” – basically every corner of the financial system – at home and abroad.

“I don’t think it’s going to happen — because it gets catastrophic, and the closer you get to it, you will have panic,” he said.

That’s when rational decision-making gives way to fear and irrationality. Markets overtaken by these emotions are chaotic and leave lasting economic scars.

Banks haven’t revealed many of the details of how they are responding, but we can glean some clues from how they’ve reacted to past crises, such as the financial crisis in 2008 or the debt ceiling showdowns of 2011 and 2013.

One important way banks can prepare is by reducing exposure to Treasury securities – some or all of which could be considered to be in default once the U.S. exhausts its ability to pay all of its bill. All U.S. debts are referred to as Treasury bills or bonds.

The value of Treasurys is likely to plunge in the case of a default, which could weaken bank balance sheets even more. The recent bank crisis, in fact, was prompted primarily by a drop in the market value of Treasurys due to the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year. And a default would only make that problem worse, with close to 190 banks at risk of failure as of March 2023.

Another strategy banks can use to hedge their exposure to a sell-off in Treasurys is to buy credit default swaps, financial instruments that allow an investor to offset credit risk. Data suggests this is already happening, as the cost to protect U.S. government debt from default is higher than that of Brazil, Greece and Mexico, all of which have defaulted multiple times and have much lower credit ratings.

But buying credit default swaps at ever-higher prices limits a third key preventive measure for banks: keeping their cash balances as high as possible so they’re able and ready to deal with whatever happens in a default.

Keeping the financial plumbing working

Financial industry groups and financial regulators have also gamed out a potential default with an eye toward keeping the financial system running as best they can.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, for example, has been updating its playbook to dictate how players in the Treasurys market will communicate in case of a default.

And the Federal Reserve, which is broadly responsible for ensuring financial stability, has been pondering a U.S. default for over a decade. One such instance came in 2013, when Republicans demanded the elimination of the Affordable Care Act in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Ultimately, Republicans capitulated and raised the limit one day before the U.S. was expected to run out of cash.

One of the biggest concerns Fed officials had at the time, according to a meeting transcript recently made public, is that the U.S. Treasury would no longer be able to access financial markets to “roll over” maturing debt. While hitting the current ceiling prevents the U.S. from issuing new debt that exceeds $31.4 trillion, the government still has to roll existing debt into new debt as it comes due. On May 15, 2023, for example, the government issued just under $100 billion in notes and bonds to replace maturing debt and raise cash.

The risk is that there would be too few buyers at one of the government’s daily debt auctions – at which investors from around the world bid to buy Treasury bills and bonds. If that happens, the government would have to use its cash on hand to pay back investors who hold maturing debt.

That would further reduce the amount of cash available for Social Security payments, federal employees wages and countless other items the government spent over $6 trillion on in 2022. This would be nothing short of apocalyptic if the Fed could not save the day.

To mitigate that risk, the Fed said it could could immediately step in as a buyer of last resort for Treasurys, quickly lower its lending rates and provide whatever funding is needed in an attempt to prevent financial contagion and collapse. The Fed is likely having the same conversations and preparing similar actions today.

A self-imposed catastrophe

Ultimately, I hope that Congress does what it has done in every previous debt ceiling scare: raise the limit.

These contentious debates over lifting it have become too commonplace, even as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle express concerns about the growing federal debt and the need to rein in government spending. Even when these debates result in some bipartisan effort to rein in spending, as they did in 2011, history shows they fail, as energy analyst Autumn Engebretson and I recently explained in a review of that episode.

That’s why one of the most important ways banks are preparing for such an outcome is by speaking out about the serious damage not raising the ceiling is likely to inflict on not only their companies but everyone else, too. This increases the pressure on political leaders to reach a deal.

Going back to my original question, how do you prepare for such a self-imposed catastrophe? The answer is, no one should have to.

About the Author:

John W. Diamond, Director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Economics & Fundamentals Opinions

17 May

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: FX & Commodities

By ForexTime

A sense of caution gripped financial markets on Wednesday as anxious investors kept a close eye on the US debt ceiling negotiations. Any fresh newsflow on the debt ceiling development is likely to influence sentiment which already remains shaky amid the uncertainty. In the meantime, there have been some interesting movements across the currency and commodity space.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on this week.

EURUSD eyes 100-day SMA

The EURUSD is bearish on the daily charts. Prices are trading below the 50-day SMA and have dipped below the 1.0845 support. Sustained weakness below this point could open a path toward 1.0800 – where the 100-day SMA resides. If 1.0800 proves to be unreliable support, the next key level of interest can be found at 1.0750.

GBPUSD balances above 1.2450

A breakdown could be on the horizon for the GBPUSD if a daily close below 1.2450 is achieved. Such a development could open a path towards 1.2370 and 1.2280, respectively. If prices can keep above 1.2450, this may trigger a rebound back towards 1.2550.

AUDUSD tests the support level

It has been a choppy week for the AUDUSD with prices trading within a range. Support can be found around 0.6630 and resistance around 0.6710. Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades to the downside. A strong breakdown below 0.6630 may open a path toward 0.6570. Should prices push back above 0.6680, this may push prices back towards 0.6710 – a level just under the 200-day SMA.

USDJPY touches 200-day SMA

USDJPY bulls have been on a tear this week with prices touching the 200-day SMA on Wednesday. Bulls could switch into higher gear if this resistance is breached with the next key level of interest at 137.80. If the upside momentum runs out of steam, a decline back to 135.50 could be on the cards.

USDCAD choppy affair

If one word could describe the USDCAD’s price action this week, the best fit would be choppy. Prices have been all over the place, swinging between losses and gains. It may be wise to keep a close eye on the 1.3500 level. Sustained weakness below this point could trigger a decline towards 1.3410. If prices break above 1.3500, prices could challenge 1.3560.

Gold breaches $2000 psychological level

The strong daily close below $2000 could signal further weakness for gold in the short term with $1970 acting as a key point of interest. If prices can push back above $2000, gold may challenge $2015 and $2032, respectively.

Oil on standby?

WTI crude seems to be on standby mode with prices wobbling above $70. A rebound from this level could encourage an incline towards $73.50 and $75.50, respectively. Should prices slip below $70, this could see prices test $68 and $64.50, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 May

Trade Of The Week: Dollar Rebound Or Dead Cat Bounce?

By ForexTime

The dollar caught our attention this morning after touching its highest level in five weeks against other major currencies.

It looks like dollar bulls may be back in the driver’s seat, especially after the solid rebound witnessed last week. But the key question is whether the US Dollar Index can maintain this bullish momentum or if this is just another dead cat bounce.

The low down…

After being suppressed by increasing Fed cut bets, the dollar has fought back with a vengeance thanks to political uncertainty and inflation worries. Concerns continue to mount over the US debt ceiling debate while a recent survey revealed that five-year inflation expectations among US consumers have jumped to a 12-year high.

Given how these forces already influencing the dollar, this could be another volatile week for the currency and here are 3 reasons why:

Safe-haven demand

The messy mashup of political uncertainty and global growth fears could send investors rushing towards the dollar’s safe embrace.

Ongoing drama revolving around the debt limit saga is likely to leave investors on edge. Last Friday, the US Congressional Budget Office warned that the US faced a “significant risk” of defaulting in early June without a debt ceiling increase. Talks between US President Joe Biden and top lawmakers have been postponed to this week. Should the ongoing stalemate result in elevated uncertainty and turbulence across markets, this could increase the appetite for the dollar.
Concerns still linger over global economic growth. Throughout this week, investors will be presented with key economic reports from major economies ranging from Europe, the United Kingdom, and China among many others. A set of disappointing figures may fuel risk aversion as growth fears intensify, and the flight to safety may propel the dollar higher.

Fed speeches + US data

After US annual inflation dipped below 5% in April, investors will be keeping a very close eye on Fed speeches and data for more clues on the Fed’s next move.

A host of Fed speakers could influence the dollar’s near-term trajectory. Although US inflation has dipped below 5%, the jobs market remains tight with core and headline monthly inflation data still sticky. If policymakers strike an overall hawkish note, this could support the dollar further. However, any whiff of doves or further hints the Fed pausing may empower dollar bears.
It will be wise to keep an eye on the latest US retail sales figures, industrial production, and US weekly initial jobless claims. A disappointing set of reports may fuel expectations around the Fed cutting rates down the road, weakening the dollar. If the figures exceed forecasts, it may fuel speculation around the Fed keeping rates higher for longer.

USDInd Bullish breakout

Dollar bulls marked their territory after securing a strong daily and weekly close above the 102.35 resistance level.

Nevertheless, the resistance around 50 and 100-day SMA could still weaken bulls before prices test the 103.00 level. Should prices push above this point, the next key level of interest on the US Dollar Index can be found at around 103.80 and 104.00. Alternatively, a decline back under 102.35 could signal a selloff towards 101.50 and 100.72, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

13 May

Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso positions to 165-week high as peso cruises

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (12,322 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,833 contracts), the Japanese Yen (7,309 contracts), EuroFX (5,933 contracts), British Pound (3,463 contracts) and Bitcoin (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,183 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (-2,664 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,468 contracts), Brazilian Real (-867 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-194 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso positions hit 165-week high as peso cruises higher

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued rise in the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past six weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +101,284 contracts over the past nine weeks, going from a net position of -31,252 contracts on March 7th to this week’s total net position of +70,032 contracts. This boost in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position to the highest level in 165 weeks, dating back to the height of the pandemic in March of 2020.

Helping the peso positioning has been the rising interest rates in Mexico that recently reached the 11.25 percent level at the latest central bank meeting in March. There is speculation of another 25 basis point increase in May as well. This has given Mexico a rising interest rate differential with the US central bank that is seen as mostly likely holding its key interest rate in June with an 84 percent probability, according to the CME Fed Tool.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a sharp uptrend to start 2023. The MXN futures (front month) price closed this week at 0.5642 compared to the 2023 opening price around the 0.5070 exchange rate. The MXN futures have gained in six out of the past eight weeks and, this week, reached its highest level since September 2017.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,175	28	11,156	44	-12,626	56	1,470	33
EUR	794,721	90	179,422	88	-234,260	11	54,838	66
GBP	242,576	63	4,528	73	-11,528	26	7,000	72
JPY	192,574	42	-61,015	31	69,162	69	-8,147	37
CHF	43,389	47	-4,467	43	4,759	53	-292	57
CAD	159,364	37	-42,263	15	41,957	85	306	23
AUD	165,532	62	-49,193	39	56,897	61	-7,704	34
NZD	41,583	39	-4,581	41	4,283	57	298	54
MXN	255,441	57	70,032	100	-76,533	0	6,501	96
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	49,208	38	34,594	80	-36,504	20	1,910	59
Bitcoin	13,102	56	423	84	-1,131	0	708	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), Brazilian Real (80 percent) and the British Pound (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (31 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.9 percent)
EuroFX (87.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (72.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (39.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (80.9 percent)
Bitcoin (84.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (79.9 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (25 percent) and the Mexican Peso (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (14 percent), the Brazilian Real (14 percent) and the EuroFX (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-4 percent), US Dollar Index (-3 percent) and the Swiss Franc (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.7 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-1.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (13.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.3	12.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	51.4	10.7
– Net Position:	11,156	-12,626	1,470
– Gross Longs:	21,656	3,902	4,923
– Gross Shorts:	10,500	16,528	3,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	55.7	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	3.9	-9.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 179,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.6	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.1	5.2
– Net Position:	179,422	-234,260	54,838
– Gross Longs:	260,335	418,410	96,515
– Gross Shorts:	80,913	652,670	41,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	11.4	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-14.5	13.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	52.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	57.1	9.9
– Net Position:	4,528	-11,528	7,000
– Gross Longs:	71,561	126,935	31,057
– Gross Shorts:	67,033	138,463	24,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	26.3	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-23.2	10.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -61,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	71.7	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	35.7	19.4
– Net Position:	-61,015	69,162	-8,147
– Gross Longs:	22,229	137,992	29,150
– Gross Shorts:	83,244	68,830	37,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	69.4	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	5.7	-9.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	44.8	33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	33.8	34.5
– Net Position:	-4,467	4,759	-292
– Gross Longs:	7,056	19,431	14,657
– Gross Shorts:	11,523	14,672	14,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	52.8	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-9.9	14.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	59.4	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	33.1	19.4
– Net Position:	-42,263	41,957	306
– Gross Longs:	29,609	94,662	31,226
– Gross Shorts:	71,872	52,705	30,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	84.7	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.6	15.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	59.6	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.6	25.3	16.4
– Net Position:	-49,193	56,897	-7,704
– Gross Longs:	41,225	98,698	19,371
– Gross Shorts:	90,418	41,801	27,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	61.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	8.3	6.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	48.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	38.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-4,581	4,283	298
– Gross Longs:	17,461	20,224	3,681
– Gross Shorts:	22,042	15,941	3,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.6	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.4	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	46.2	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	76.1	0.9
– Net Position:	70,032	-76,533	6,501
– Gross Longs:	127,763	117,890	8,859
– Gross Shorts:	57,731	194,423	2,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.0	11.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	14.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	88.6	3.9
– Net Position:	34,594	-36,504	1,910
– Gross Longs:	38,196	7,097	3,841
– Gross Shorts:	3,602	43,601	1,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	19.8	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-7.4	-40.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	1.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.3	10.4	4.8
– Net Position:	423	-1,131	708
– Gross Longs:	10,027	233	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,604	1,364	626
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	8.7	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-38.3	3.7

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COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

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