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COT Forex Speculators edged US Dollar Index bullish bets to 115-week high

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest release was delayed by the CFTC due to the New Year’s holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 28th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the continued strong run of bullish bets in the US Dollar Index currency futures contracts. Dollar Index speculator bets rose for the second straight week last week and for the fifteenth time out of the past nineteen weeks. The Dollar Index speculator bets not only closed out the year at their highest standing of 2021 but the bullish bets ascended to the highest level of the past one hundred and fifteen weeks, dating back to October 22nd of 2019. The Dollar Index’s current strength index score (comparing current speculator level to the range of the past 3 years) remains in an extreme bullish level with a score of 89.2 percent.

Joining the US Dollar Index (1,674 contracts) with positive changes last week were the Euro (3,528 contracts), Brazil real (1,261 contracts), British pound sterling (6,967 contracts) and Bitcoin (336 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets were the Japanese yen (-816 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,491 contracts), Australian dollar (-1,387 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,285 contracts), Canadian dollar (-457 contracts), Russian ruble (-157 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-4,216 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-28-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	57,892	85	36,789	89	-42,461	4	5,672	79
EUR	673,273	73	-6,634	33	-18,533	70	25,167	16
GBP	205,378	42	-50,719	37	60,101	65	-9,382	36
JPY	203,814	58	-53,102	34	72,364	72	-19,262	8
CHF	40,122	14	-10,718	51	15,226	48	-4,508	50
CAD	138,692	23	-10,334	46	7,167	56	3,167	36
AUD	183,152	70	-81,741	8	99,476	93	-17,735	9
NZD	41,862	28	-8,421	57	10,100	46	-1,679	33
MXN	102,418	4	-9,008	24	8,334	76	674	46
RUB	47,726	50	8,464	33	-9,886	63	1,422	73
BRL	37,384	39	-5,286	62	5,493	41	-207	64
Bitcoin	12,468	69	-542	91	-224	0	766	30

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 36,789 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.5	3.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	77.0	3.1
– Net Position:	36,789	-42,461	5,672
– Gross Longs:	47,169	2,102	7,471
– Gross Shorts:	10,380	44,563	1,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.2	4.0	78.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-3.3	1.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	57.2	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	59.9	7.7
– Net Position:	-6,634	-18,533	25,167
– Gross Longs:	198,617	384,857	76,739
– Gross Shorts:	205,251	403,390	51,572
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.0	70.5	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	2.4	-9.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -50,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,686 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	76.4	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	47.1	15.4
– Net Position:	-50,719	60,101	-9,382
– Gross Longs:	23,093	156,875	22,191
– Gross Shorts:	73,812	96,774	31,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.5	65.2	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	11.2	0.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,286 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	73.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.0	38.4	17.6
– Net Position:	-53,102	72,364	-19,262
– Gross Longs:	32,475	150,647	16,525
– Gross Shorts:	85,577	78,283	35,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	72.1	8.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.3	-21.5	7.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,227 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	2.6	65.5	31.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	27.6	42.7
– Net Position:	-10,718	15,226	-4,508
– Gross Longs:	1,043	26,286	12,618
– Gross Shorts:	11,761	11,060	17,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	48.0	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.2	-4.0	15.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,334 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.7	45.2	21.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.1	40.1	19.3
– Net Position:	-10,334	7,167	3,167
– Gross Longs:	42,528	62,717	29,912
– Gross Shorts:	52,862	55,550	26,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	56.1	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	21.2	-29.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -81,741 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	79.9	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	25.5	18.8
– Net Position:	-81,741	99,476	-17,735
– Gross Longs:	16,885	146,266	16,785
– Gross Shorts:	98,626	46,790	34,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	93.1	9.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	22.1	-22.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	64.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.9	40.6	11.2
– Net Position:	-8,421	10,100	-1,679
– Gross Longs:	11,231	27,097	3,025
– Gross Shorts:	19,652	16,997	4,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	46.0	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.6	39.5	-37.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,008 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	62.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	53.9	4.0
– Net Position:	-9,008	8,334	674
– Gross Longs:	33,561	63,529	4,815
– Gross Shorts:	42,569	55,195	4,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	76.3	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-15.8	-3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	54.0	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	39.3	7.4
– Net Position:	-5,286	5,493	-207
– Gross Longs:	13,973	20,203	2,542
– Gross Shorts:	19,259	14,710	2,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.5	40.7	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-13.7	-2.0

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.9	51.4	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	72.1	1.7
– Net Position:	8,464	-9,886	1,422
– Gross Longs:	20,953	24,545	2,228
– Gross Shorts:	12,489	34,431	806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	62.9	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.5	32.2	3.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.0	3.5	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.4	5.3	6.7
– Net Position:	-542	-224	766
– Gross Longs:	8,729	434	1,606
– Gross Shorts:	9,271	658	840
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	9.2	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-55.3	-8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

03 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators push 10-Year Treasury bets higher after 97-week low

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the jump in bets for the 10-Year Bond. Speculators sharply boosted their 10-Year bets by the largest one-week amount (+125,989) of the past fifteen weeks on December 28th. This rebound strongly trimmed the overall bearish level after it had hit a 97-week bearish high on December 21st at -339,299 contracts. The 10-Year speculator standing has been in bearish territory now for eleven consecutive weeks, dating back to October 19th.

Joining the 10-Year (125,989 contracts) with gains on the week were the 2-Year Bond (8,471 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (2,904 contracts), Long US Bond (16,129 contracts) and the 5-Year (47,689 contracts) while decreasing bets for the week were seen in the Eurodollar (-13,028 contracts), FedFunds (-3,900 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-3,156 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-28-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	11,150,593	48	-1,827,848	0	2,203,302	100	-375,454	31
FedFunds	1,366,900	28	-93,329	28	107,478	73	-14,149	27
2-Year	1,966,290	7	87,804	100	-25,765	14	-62,039	5
Long T-Bond	1,208,000	50	-19,955	86	-10,654	17	30,609	77
10-Year	3,846,382	54	-213,310	39	458,479	79	-245,169	22
5-Year	3,741,327	34	-298,687	28	543,542	87	-244,855	14

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,827,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,028 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,814,820 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	71.9	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	52.1	7.3
– Net Position:	-1,827,848	2,203,302	-375,454
– Gross Longs:	854,963	8,015,395	436,619
– Gross Shorts:	2,682,811	5,812,093	812,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	16.1	-3.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.0	83.0	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	75.2	2.8
– Net Position:	-93,329	107,478	-14,149
– Gross Longs:	41,057	1,135,007	23,529
– Gross Shorts:	134,386	1,027,529	37,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	72.9	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	4.0	-11.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 87,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.5	67.0	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	68.3	9.4
– Net Position:	87,804	-25,765	-62,039
– Gross Longs:	423,530	1,316,762	122,956
– Gross Shorts:	335,726	1,342,527	184,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	14.2	5.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-19.5	-2.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -298,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 47,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -346,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	80.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	65.8	13.5
– Net Position:	-298,687	543,542	-244,855
– Gross Longs:	358,105	3,006,091	259,112
– Gross Shorts:	656,792	2,462,549	503,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	87.4	13.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-5.1	-2.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -213,310 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 125,989 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,299 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	75.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	63.8	14.0
– Net Position:	-213,310	458,479	-245,169
– Gross Longs:	545,337	2,913,736	291,916
– Gross Shorts:	758,647	2,455,257	537,085
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	79.3	21.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.5	-17.3	13.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 113,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,912 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	70.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	67.5	19.7
– Net Position:	113,816	36,873	-150,689
– Gross Longs:	274,231	959,273	119,235
– Gross Shorts:	160,415	922,400	269,924
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	54.6	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	9.4	9.1

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -19,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	70.4	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	71.3	12.8
– Net Position:	-19,955	-10,654	30,609
– Gross Longs:	155,753	850,571	185,407
– Gross Shorts:	175,708	861,225	154,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.3	16.7	76.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-6.0	17.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -300,717 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -297,561 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	80.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	58.9	9.9
– Net Position:	-300,717	264,412	36,305
– Gross Longs:	82,877	999,528	159,612
– Gross Shorts:	383,594	735,116	123,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.5	44.3	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-11.6	18.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions

03 Jan

COT Metals Speculators raised their Copper bullish bets for 1st time in 10 weeks

Highlighting the COT metals data is the positioning in the Copper futures. The speculative net position in the Copper futures rebounded strongly last week following nine consecutive weekly declines in speculator bets. The recent weakness had brought the overall net position in Copper futures to the lowest standing in the previous eighty-one weeks. Last week’s rise marked the largest one-week gain of the past ten weeks and pushed the overall net position to a six-week high.

Joining Copper (9,946 contracts) with gains on the week were Gold (7,345 contracts), Silver (5,532 contracts), Platinum (3,201 contracts) and Palladium (530 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-28-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,867,339	0	338,429	20	-373,092	71	34,663	64
Gold	508,912	22	213,156	56	-245,664	43	32,508	56
Silver	141,246	8	26,458	49	-41,928	58	15,470	30
Copper	180,736	13	14,383	53	-19,679	46	5,296	56
Palladium	9,403	13	-3,109	4	3,230	95	-121	38
Platinum	60,353	22	4,469	9	-10,655	94	6,186	48
Natural Gas	1,110,532	0	-146,217	35	115,610	67	30,607	56
Brent	215,921	52	-20,716	84	17,594	18	3,122	52
Heating Oil	302,721	3	4,897	50	-21,060	49	16,163	54
Soybeans	647,225	9	125,285	61	-93,079	44	-32,206	18
Corn	1,522,692	25	458,176	89	-411,793	13	-46,383	16
Coffee	261,263	30	55,265	89	-58,015	14	2,750	7
Sugar	864,262	9	184,686	75	-209,011	29	24,325	38
Wheat	357,381	11	9,132	55	-1,601	39	-7,531	66

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 213,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	20.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	68.5	3.7
– Net Position:	213,156	-245,664	32,508
– Gross Longs:	303,879	103,172	51,121
– Gross Shorts:	90,723	348,836	18,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	42.6	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	12.8	13.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,926 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.2	29.3	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	59.0	8.1
– Net Position:	26,458	-41,928	15,470
– Gross Longs:	63,873	41,386	26,850
– Gross Shorts:	37,415	83,314	11,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	57.8	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	23.8	-30.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,383 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,946 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,437 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	42.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	53.5	6.3
– Net Position:	14,383	-19,679	5,296
– Gross Longs:	70,980	77,057	16,594
– Gross Shorts:	56,597	96,736	11,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	45.9	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	7.6	-29.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.0	35.9	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	53.5	5.6
– Net Position:	4,469	-10,655	6,186
– Gross Longs:	27,133	21,661	9,568
– Gross Shorts:	22,664	32,316	3,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	93.8	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	25.2	-14.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	57.3	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.5	23.0	14.2
– Net Position:	-3,109	3,230	-121
– Gross Longs:	2,670	5,390	1,214
– Gross Shorts:	5,779	2,160	1,335
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	95.3	37.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.6	-10.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

03 Jan

COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bullish bets to 148-week low

Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for seven consecutive weeks and in nine out of the previous ten weeks. The speculator’s crude position has fallen by a total of -91,165 contracts over the past ten weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level since March 5th of 2019, a span of one hundred and forty-eight weeks.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (-1,826 contracts) with lower bets last week were Natural Gas (-5,005 contracts), Gasoline (-2,908 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-11 contracts).

Energy markets with higher positions were Brent Crude Oil (4,285 contracts) and Heating Oil (174 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-28-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,867,339	0	338,429	20	-373,092	71	34,663	64
Gold	508,912	22	213,156	56	-245,664	43	32,508	56
Silver	141,246	8	26,458	49	-41,928	58	15,470	30
Copper	180,736	13	14,383	53	-19,679	46	5,296	56
Palladium	9,403	13	-3,109	4	3,230	95	-121	38
Platinum	60,353	22	4,469	9	-10,655	94	6,186	48
Natural Gas	1,110,532	0	-146,217	35	115,610	67	30,607	56
Brent	215,921	52	-20,716	84	17,594	18	3,122	52
Heating Oil	302,721	3	4,897	50	-21,060	49	16,163	54
Soybeans	647,225	9	125,285	61	-93,079	44	-32,206	18
Corn	1,522,692	25	458,176	89	-411,793	13	-46,383	16
Coffee	261,263	30	55,265	89	-58,015	14	2,750	7
Sugar	864,262	9	184,686	75	-209,011	29	24,325	38
Wheat	357,381	11	9,132	55	-1,601	39	-7,531	66

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 338,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	38.1	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	58.1	2.7
– Net Position:	338,429	-373,092	34,663
– Gross Longs:	469,946	711,711	85,391
– Gross Shorts:	131,517	1,084,803	50,728
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.6	70.7	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	29.2	-28.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	44.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	36.4	1.9
– Net Position:	-20,716	17,594	3,122
– Gross Longs:	40,797	96,203	7,263
– Gross Shorts:	61,513	78,609	4,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	17.9	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	17.9	-31.9

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -146,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	45.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.2	35.1	2.2
– Net Position:	-146,217	115,610	30,607
– Gross Longs:	211,299	505,086	55,322
– Gross Shorts:	357,516	389,476	24,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	67.3	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	5.4	-39.4

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.0	44.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	66.1	4.8
– Net Position:	57,245	-63,345	6,100
– Gross Longs:	96,105	128,840	19,965
– Gross Shorts:	38,860	192,185	13,865
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	73.7	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-1.2	-10.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	51.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	58.5	8.3
– Net Position:	4,897	-21,060	16,163
– Gross Longs:	39,255	156,088	41,332
– Gross Shorts:	34,358	177,148	25,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	48.9	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	23.3	-23.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.3	25.1	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	96.1	1.5	0.1
– Net Position:	-9,995	9,537	458
– Gross Longs:	28,751	10,137	500
– Gross Shorts:	38,746	600	42
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	16.9 to 1	11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.2	30.0	44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-14.3	-11.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

03 Jan

COT Stock Market Speculators rebooted their VIX Volatility bearish bets for 1st time in 5 weeks

Highlighting the COT stock market data is the rebound in the VIX Volatility futures bearish bets after multiple weeks of bullish buying. The speculative net position in the VIX futures saw bearish bets rise last week by 15,586 contracts following declining bearish positions in the previous four straight weeks and in six out of the previous seven weeks. VIX bearish positions had risen as high as -103,286 contracts on November 2nd before seeing traders shed their bearish bets sharply over the next six weeks.

The only stock market that saw higher speculator bets last week were Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini positions (8,107 contracts).

The markets with lower speculator bets on the week were the VIX (-15,586 contracts), S&P500 Mini (-33,087 contracts), Nasdaq Mini (-11,256 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (-8,126 contracts), Nikkei 225 USD (-333 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (-8,779 contracts) and the MSCI Emerging Markets Mini (-2,219 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-28-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,287,852	1	103,294	84	-137,776	41	34,482	34
Nikkei 225	15,319	3	-7,795	40	6,861	64	934	39
Nasdaq-Mini	211,097	19	14,104	83	-15,035	17	931	46
DowJones-Mini	96,749	65	-1,158	34	-1,929	60	3,087	55
VIX	277,502	20	-47,195	71	56,225	31	-9,030	22
Nikkei 225 Yen	41,696	17	3,115	30	13,623	71	-16,738	46

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -47,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.3	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	31.0	9.7
– Net Position:	-47,195	56,225	-9,030
– Gross Longs:	58,799	142,296	17,818
– Gross Shorts:	105,994	86,071	26,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	31.2	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-7.0	8.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 103,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	69.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	75.2	9.8
– Net Position:	103,294	-137,776	34,482
– Gross Longs:	403,614	1,582,654	259,664
– Gross Shorts:	300,320	1,720,430	225,182
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.2	41.2	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	2.2	-1.0

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,158 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	47.5	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	49.5	11.9
– Net Position:	-1,158	-1,929	3,087
– Gross Longs:	35,616	45,963	14,621
– Gross Shorts:	36,774	47,892	11,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	60.0	55.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-1.9	-8.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	49.3	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	56.4	16.4
– Net Position:	14,104	-15,035	931
– Gross Longs:	69,315	104,127	35,448
– Gross Shorts:	55,211	119,162	34,517
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.9	17.3	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	-3.4	10.9

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -20,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	76.7	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	75.2	3.9
– Net Position:	-20,299	6,890	13,409
– Gross Longs:	72,956	353,989	31,421
– Gross Shorts:	93,255	347,099	18,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	48.8	70.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	4.7	-19.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	63.2	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.5	18.4	19.8
– Net Position:	-7,795	6,861	934
– Gross Longs:	1,633	9,684	3,969
– Gross Shorts:	9,428	2,823	3,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	64.0	38.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.0	45.9	1.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 5,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	90.6	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.8	93.2	1.7
– Net Position:	5,290	-10,002	4,712
– Gross Longs:	23,909	349,662	11,330
– Gross Shorts:	18,619	359,664	6,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	80.5	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	-0.6	47.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Stock Market News

03 Jan

COT Soft Commodity Speculators push Soybean bullish bets higher to 22-week high

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 28th 2021 (delayed holiday release) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data last week was once again the Soybeans bullish bets that keep on rising. The speculator positions increased for a fourth straight week and by a total of 69,968 contracts over that 4-week time-frame. This bullishness has boosted the Soybean speculator position to its highest level since July 27th, a span of twenty-two weeks.

The soft commodities that saw higher bets last week were Corn (12,856 contracts), Soybeans (22,408 contracts), Soybean Oil (201 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,610 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,094 contracts), Cotton (3,152 contracts) and Cocoa (2,547 contracts). The commodities with lower bets on the week were Wheat (-2,833 contracts), Sugar (-4,512 contracts), Coffee (-869 contracts) and Live Cattle (-13,158 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-28-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,867,339	0	338,429	20	-373,092	71	34,663	64
Gold	508,912	22	213,156	56	-245,664	43	32,508	56
Silver	141,246	8	26,458	49	-41,928	58	15,470	30
Copper	180,736	13	14,383	53	-19,679	46	5,296	56
Palladium	9,403	13	-3,109	4	3,230	95	-121	38
Platinum	60,353	22	4,469	9	-10,655	94	6,186	48
Natural Gas	1,110,532	0	-146,217	35	115,610	67	30,607	56
Brent	215,921	52	-20,716	84	17,594	18	3,122	52
Heating Oil	302,721	3	4,897	50	-21,060	49	16,163	54
Soybeans	647,225	9	125,285	61	-93,079	44	-32,206	18
Corn	1,522,692	25	458,176	89	-411,793	13	-46,383	16
Coffee	261,263	30	55,265	89	-58,015	14	2,750	7
Sugar	864,262	9	184,686	75	-209,011	29	24,325	38
Wheat	357,381	11	9,132	55	-1,601	39	-7,531	66

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 458,176 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 445,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.3	43.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.2	70.8	11.5
– Net Position:	458,176	-411,793	-46,383
– Gross Longs:	536,934	665,968	129,328
– Gross Shorts:	78,758	1,077,761	175,711
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.6	13.3	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-10.1	7.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 184,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 189,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	49.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	73.7	6.3
– Net Position:	184,686	-209,011	24,325
– Gross Longs:	233,490	427,847	78,835
– Gross Shorts:	48,804	636,858	54,510
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.6	28.5	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	12.7	-30.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	48.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	70.8	2.6
– Net Position:	55,265	-58,015	2,750
– Gross Longs:	69,178	127,068	9,647
– Gross Shorts:	13,913	185,083	6,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.7	14.4	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	9.5	-8.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 125,285 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	52.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	66.8	12.5
– Net Position:	125,285	-93,079	-32,206
– Gross Longs:	168,011	339,477	48,633
– Gross Shorts:	42,726	432,556	80,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	43.9	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-20.7	16.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	47.5	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.7	76.9	6.4
– Net Position:	91,744	-114,144	22,400
– Gross Longs:	110,165	184,560	47,358
– Gross Shorts:	18,421	298,704	24,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.5	17.4	60.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-8.0	-13.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 66,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	37.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	56.3	13.1
– Net Position:	66,356	-57,712	-8,644
– Gross Longs:	113,339	112,965	31,159
– Gross Shorts:	46,983	170,677	39,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	60.4	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-13.6	-1.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	36.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	54.9	15.0
– Net Position:	55,296	-39,273	-16,023
– Gross Longs:	85,559	76,686	15,634
– Gross Shorts:	30,263	115,959	31,657
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	42.1	11.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-11.1	0.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 90,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,737 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.1	35.3	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	78.9	2.9
– Net Position:	90,889	-102,513	11,624
– Gross Longs:	103,562	82,804	18,544
– Gross Shorts:	12,673	185,317	6,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.6	18.0	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	10.8	-5.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 3,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.9	52.1	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	54.2	4.2
– Net Position:	3,250	-4,886	1,636
– Gross Longs:	60,559	121,644	11,367
– Gross Shorts:	57,309	126,530	9,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	74.5	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	1.9	-10.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,965 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	37.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	38.0	10.5
– Net Position:	9,132	-1,601	-7,531
– Gross Longs:	103,696	134,206	29,825
– Gross Shorts:	94,564	135,807	37,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.8	39.3	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	11.5	-8.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions Soft Commodities

27 Dec

COT Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bullish bets after 2 down weeks

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 21st 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting the COT currency data was the bounce back in the US Dollar Index bullish positions after two straight down weeks. The speculative bets for the dollar index rose by the largest one-week total of the past eleven weeks and brought the overall bullish position back over the +35,000 level. Overall, the dollar index positioning has now been continually bullish since July 6th, a span of twenty-five straight weeks. The last twelve weeks have seen positions above +30,000 net contracts which is the first time that has happened since early 2019.

Joining the US Dollar Index (3,874 contracts) with positive changes last week were the yen (1,237 contracts), Mexican peso (5,881 contracts), Euro (1,717 contracts) and the Canadian dollar (3,251 contracts).

The currencies with declining bets last week were the Russian ruble (-7,903 contracts), Bitcoin (-106 contracts), Brazil real (-1,930 contracts), Swiss franc (-891 contracts), British pound sterling (-6,938 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-275 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-1,451 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-21-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	56,162	81	35,115	86	-40,331	8	5,216	74
EUR	672,239	73	-10,162	32	-15,626	71	25,788	17
GBP	207,747	44	-57,686	32	71,124	72	-13,438	28
JPY	183,743	44	-52,286	35	71,159	72	-18,873	9
CHF	40,920	15	-9,227	54	15,945	49	-6,718	44
CAD	145,562	27	-9,877	47	7,440	56	2,437	35
AUD	191,309	76	-80,354	9	98,033	92	-17,679	9
NZD	41,354	27	-6,136	61	8,866	44	-2,730	21
MXN	94,469	0	-4,792	25	6,382	75	-1,590	36
RUB	45,372	46	8,621	34	-9,877	63	1,256	69
BRL	30,811	28	-6,547	60	7,228	43	-681	59
Bitcoin	12,852	72	-878	83	39	0	839	32

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	82.3	3.5	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	75.3	3.0
– Net Position:	35,115	-40,331	5,216
– Gross Longs:	46,222	1,941	6,886
– Gross Shorts:	11,107	42,272	1,670
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.4	7.6	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	1.3	-4.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -10,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,879 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	56.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	59.1	7.9
– Net Position:	-10,162	-15,626	25,788
– Gross Longs:	196,595	381,670	79,101
– Gross Shorts:	206,757	397,296	53,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	71.3	17.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	4.6	-4.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	78.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	44.5	16.7
– Net Position:	-57,686	71,124	-13,438
– Gross Longs:	20,824	163,619	21,240
– Gross Shorts:	78,510	92,495	34,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	71.7	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	31.7	-16.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -52,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,523 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	77.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	38.6	19.5
– Net Position:	-52,286	71,159	-18,873
– Gross Longs:	22,191	142,161	16,916
– Gross Shorts:	74,477	71,002	35,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	71.5	9.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-25.8	-2.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	66.8	27.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	27.9	43.4
– Net Position:	-9,227	15,945	-6,718
– Gross Longs:	2,460	27,344	11,046
– Gross Shorts:	11,687	11,399	17,764
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	48.8	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.7	-5.2	-9.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,128 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	45.7	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	40.6	18.6
– Net Position:	-9,877	7,440	2,437
– Gross Longs:	45,925	66,483	29,450
– Gross Shorts:	55,802	59,043	27,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.8	56.3	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	21.3	-38.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -80,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,451 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	77.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.0	26.6	17.6
– Net Position:	-80,354	98,033	-17,679
– Gross Longs:	22,958	148,859	16,070
– Gross Shorts:	103,312	50,826	33,749
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	92.0	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	23.8	-36.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.7	64.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	43.4	13.4
– Net Position:	-6,136	8,866	-2,730
– Gross Longs:	11,050	26,819	2,809
– Gross Shorts:	17,186	17,953	5,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	44.1	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.9	37.0	-57.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	63.8	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	57.1	5.5
– Net Position:	-4,792	6,382	-1,590
– Gross Longs:	30,021	60,300	3,563
– Gross Shorts:	34,813	53,918	5,153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.3	75.5	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-16.4	-18.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,930 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	59.1	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.4	35.6	9.5
– Net Position:	-6,547	7,228	-681
– Gross Longs:	10,217	18,196	2,241
– Gross Shorts:	16,764	10,968	2,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	43.1	58.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-11.6	-2.3

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	53.3	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	75.1	2.2
– Net Position:	8,621	-9,877	1,256
– Gross Longs:	18,942	24,177	2,253
– Gross Shorts:	10,321	34,054	997
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	62.9	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	29.6	-22.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	3.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.7	2.9	7.1
– Net Position:	-878	39	839
– Gross Longs:	8,594	408	1,755
– Gross Shorts:	9,472	369	916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.8	34.3	32.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.8	-17.5	-9.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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27 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators drop 10-Year Treasury Notes to most bearish in past 97 weeks

Highlighting the COT bonds data is the sharp drop in the 10-Year Bond futures. Speculator positioning in the 10-Year has fallen for two straight weeks and last week’s sharp decline marked the largest one-week fall of the past seven weeks. The weakness in speculator sentiment has pushed the current level (-339,299 contracts) to the most bearish level of the past ninety-seven weeks, dating all the way back to February 11th of 2020. The 10-Year contracts have also fallen into a bearish-extreme reading in the speculator strength index with a score of 19.8 percent (current level compared to past 3-year range, with below 20 percent equaling an extreme bearish score).

The bond markets with rising contracts last week were the 2-Year Bond (34,135 contracts), Ultra 10-Year (2,891 contracts) and the Long US Bond (1,234 contracts) while decreasing bets for the week were seen in Eurodollar (-92,289 contracts), 10-Year (-65,443 contracts), FedFunds (-117 contracts), 5-Year (-6,573 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-5,088 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-21-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	11,105,895	47	-1,814,820	3	2,164,526	93	-349,706	37
FedFunds	1,368,542	29	-89,429	29	106,598	73	-17,169	19
2-Year	1,970,102	8	79,333	100	-10,366	18	-68,967	1
Long T-Bond	1,225,029	53	-36,084	80	12,074	24	24,010	72
10-Year	3,798,267	50	-339,299	20	572,563	93	-233,264	24
5-Year	3,604,052	27	-346,376	19	595,081	94	-248,705	13

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,814,820 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -92,289 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,722,531 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.8	71.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	51.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-1,814,820	2,164,526	-349,706
– Gross Longs:	861,964	7,913,862	466,971
– Gross Shorts:	2,676,784	5,749,336	816,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.1	93.1	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	17.3	1.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -89,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -117 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.2	82.7	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	74.9	2.9
– Net Position:	-89,429	106,598	-17,169
– Gross Longs:	44,107	1,131,988	21,886
– Gross Shorts:	133,536	1,025,390	39,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.6	72.8	19.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	3.6	-19.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 79,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 34,135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.0	67.4	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	67.9	9.7
– Net Position:	79,333	-10,366	-68,967
– Gross Longs:	413,905	1,327,923	122,871
– Gross Shorts:	334,572	1,338,289	191,838
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	17.6	1.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-17.2	-8.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -346,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -339,803 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	82.5	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	66.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-346,376	595,081	-248,705
– Gross Longs:	263,268	2,974,180	252,720
– Gross Shorts:	609,644	2,379,099	501,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.4	94.3	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-5.7	-5.1

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -339,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -65,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -273,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	78.2	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	63.1	14.1
– Net Position:	-339,299	572,563	-233,264
– Gross Longs:	438,814	2,968,460	301,484
– Gross Shorts:	778,113	2,395,897	534,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	93.4	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	0.0	16.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 110,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	71.2	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.0	68.2	19.8
– Net Position:	110,912	41,687	-152,599
– Gross Longs:	259,469	964,154	115,340
– Gross Shorts:	148,557	922,467	267,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	55.9	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.1	17.0	18.3

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -36,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,234 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,318 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	71.5	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	70.5	13.2
– Net Position:	-36,084	12,074	24,010
– Gross Longs:	147,408	875,599	185,627
– Gross Shorts:	183,492	863,525	161,617
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	24.0	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	0.6	4.9

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -297,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -292,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	80.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.3	59.0	10.2
– Net Position:	-297,561	265,003	32,558
– Gross Longs:	83,043	1,004,474	160,841
– Gross Shorts:	380,604	739,471	128,283
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.8	44.6	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-13.1	16.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Opinions

27 Dec

COT Metals Speculators push Copper bullish bets lower for 9th week to 81-week low

Highlighting the COT metals data is the continued decline in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has now decreased for nine consecutive weeks and by a total of -36,147 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has brought the current standing for Copper net positions to the least bullish level since June 2nd of 2020, a span of eighty-one weeks. Speculators had been raising their positions for Copper starting in June 2020 with positioning reaching a multi-year high of +80,039 contracts on December 8th of 2020. The overall position has remained in bullish territory throughout 2021 but has dropped to an overall level of just +4,437 contracts last week.

Joining Copper (-2,260 contracts) in declining on the week were Silver (-1,058 contracts), Platinum (-2,463 contracts) while Gold (3,410 contracts) and Palladium (135 contracts) had higher weekly speculative positions.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-21-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,892,701	0	340,255	20	-375,816	70	35,561	65
Gold	500,846	19	205,811	53	-236,029	46	30,218	50
Silver	141,119	8	20,926	43	-36,399	63	15,473	30
Copper	170,353	5	4,437	46	-9,777	53	5,340	56
Palladium	9,518	14	-3,639	1	3,985	99	-346	24
Platinum	64,732	30	1,268	4	-7,717	98	6,449	52
Natural Gas	1,142,729	4	-141,212	36	109,551	65	31,661	59
Brent	224,110	58	-25,001	76	22,225	26	2,776	47
Heating Oil	302,721	3	4,897	50	-21,060	49	16,163	54
Soybeans	654,460	11	102,877	56	-72,352	49	-30,525	21
Corn	1,485,412	19	445,320	87	-401,280	15	-44,040	18
Coffee	258,871	28	56,134	89	-57,984	14	1,850	1
Sugar	864,082	9	189,198	75	-210,783	28	21,585	35
Wheat	357,381	11	9,132	55	-1,601	39	-7,531	66

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 205,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 202,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.2	21.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	68.1	3.8
– Net Position:	205,811	-236,029	30,218
– Gross Longs:	296,628	104,997	49,251
– Gross Shorts:	90,817	341,026	19,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.3	45.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.0	14.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	30.3	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	56.1	8.3
– Net Position:	20,926	-36,399	15,473
– Gross Longs:	62,070	42,742	27,251
– Gross Shorts:	41,144	79,141	11,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.2	63.2	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.9	16.9	-7.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 4,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	45.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	51.4	6.5
– Net Position:	4,437	-9,777	5,340
– Gross Longs:	60,983	77,851	16,453
– Gross Shorts:	56,546	87,628	11,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	52.7	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.2	16.1	-29.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,731 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	37.7	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	49.6	5.3
– Net Position:	1,268	-7,717	6,449
– Gross Longs:	28,302	24,417	9,899
– Gross Shorts:	27,034	32,134	3,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.2	98.0	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	23.7	-2.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	60.3	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.2	18.5	16.0
– Net Position:	-3,639	3,985	-346
– Gross Longs:	2,475	5,743	1,174
– Gross Shorts:	6,114	1,758	1,520
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.3	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.7	5.1	-17.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Metals Opinions

27 Dec

COT Energy Speculators raised their Natural Gas bearish bets last week

Highlighting the COT energy data is the decline in the Natural Gas futures bets. The speculative net position in the Natural Gas futures dropped sharply last week by over -10,000 contracts after improving in the previous four weeks. The speculator position fell by the largest one-week amount of the past fourteen weeks and brought the overall net position to its most bearish level since November 16th. Speculators have now been continually bearish on Natural Gas futures for forty-two straight weeks, dating back to the last net bullish level on March 2nd of this year.

Joining Natural Gas (-10,986 contracts) with declines for the week were Brent Crude Oil (-1,391 contracts), WTI Crude Oil (-6,882 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-1,401 contracts). Heating Oil (174 contracts) and Gasoline (3,719 contracts) had rising speculator bets last week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-21-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,892,701	0	340,255	20	-375,816	70	35,561	65
Gold	500,846	19	205,811	53	-236,029	46	30,218	50
Silver	141,119	8	20,926	43	-36,399	63	15,473	30
Copper	170,353	5	4,437	46	-9,777	53	5,340	56
Palladium	9,518	14	-3,639	1	3,985	99	-346	24
Platinum	64,732	30	1,268	4	-7,717	98	6,449	52
Natural Gas	1,142,729	4	-141,212	36	109,551	65	31,661	59
Brent	224,110	58	-25,001	76	22,225	26	2,776	47
Heating Oil	302,721	3	4,897	50	-21,060	49	16,163	54
Soybeans	654,460	11	102,877	56	-72,352	49	-30,525	21
Corn	1,485,412	19	445,320	87	-401,280	15	-44,040	18
Coffee	258,871	28	56,134	89	-57,984	14	1,850	1
Sugar	864,082	9	189,198	75	-210,783	28	21,585	35
Wheat	357,381	11	9,132	55	-1,601	39	-7,531	66

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 340,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,882 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 347,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	39.1	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	59.0	2.5
– Net Position:	340,255	-375,816	35,561
– Gross Longs:	478,276	740,195	83,055
– Gross Shorts:	138,021	1,116,011	47,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.2	69.8	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.0	25.8	-7.2

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	45.5	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	35.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-25,001	22,225	2,776
– Gross Longs:	40,921	101,951	6,145
– Gross Shorts:	65,922	79,726	3,369
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	26.1	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	25.8	-20.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -141,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,226 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	44.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	34.7	2.1
– Net Position:	-141,212	109,551	31,661
– Gross Longs:	220,442	506,065	55,722
– Gross Shorts:	361,654	396,514	24,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.2	65.4	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	3.5	-30.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	44.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	65.1	4.8
– Net Position:	60,153	-63,913	3,760
– Gross Longs:	99,381	133,078	18,347
– Gross Shorts:	39,228	196,991	14,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	73.1	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-10.0	-30.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,723 net contracts.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	51.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	58.5	8.3
– Net Position:	4,897	-21,060	16,163
– Gross Longs:	39,255	156,088	41,332
– Gross Shorts:	34,358	177,148	25,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	48.9	54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.3	23.3	-23.3

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,583 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.0	25.4	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	96.0	1.5	0.1
– Net Position:	-9,984	9,537	447
– Gross Longs:	28,352	10,137	491
– Gross Shorts:	38,336	600	44
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	16.9 to 1	11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.3	30.0	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.1	-15.2	-11.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Opinions

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