COT Energy Speculators drop WTI Crude Oil bullish bets to 148-week low

January 3, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The latest release was delayed by the CFTC due to the New Year’s holiday.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 28th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT energy data is the continued decline in the WTI Crude Oil futures bets. The speculative net position in the WTI Crude Oil futures has decreased for seven consecutive weeks and in nine out of the previous ten weeks. The speculator’s crude position has fallen by a total of -91,165 contracts over the past ten weeks and speculators have now pushed their current net positioning to the lowest level since March 5th of 2019, a span of one hundred and forty-eight weeks.

Joining WTI Crude Oil (-1,826 contracts) with lower bets last week were Natural Gas (-5,005 contracts), Gasoline (-2,908 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-11 contracts).

Energy markets with higher positions were Brent Crude Oil (4,285 contracts) and Heating Oil (174 contracts).


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Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-28-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,867,339 0 338,429 20 -373,092 71 34,663 64
Gold 508,912 22 213,156 56 -245,664 43 32,508 56
Silver 141,246 8 26,458 49 -41,928 58 15,470 30
Copper 180,736 13 14,383 53 -19,679 46 5,296 56
Palladium 9,403 13 -3,109 4 3,230 95 -121 38
Platinum 60,353 22 4,469 9 -10,655 94 6,186 48
Natural Gas 1,110,532 0 -146,217 35 115,610 67 30,607 56
Brent 215,921 52 -20,716 84 17,594 18 3,122 52
Heating Oil 302,721 3 4,897 50 -21,060 49 16,163 54
Soybeans 647,225 9 125,285 61 -93,079 44 -32,206 18
Corn 1,522,692 25 458,176 89 -411,793 13 -46,383 16
Coffee 261,263 30 55,265 89 -58,015 14 2,750 7
Sugar 864,262 9 184,686 75 -209,011 29 24,325 38
Wheat 357,381 11 9,132 55 -1,601 39 -7,531 66

 


WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 338,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,826 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 340,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 25.2 38.1 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 7.0 58.1 2.7
– Net Position: 338,429 -373,092 34,663
– Gross Longs: 469,946 711,711 85,391
– Gross Shorts: 131,517 1,084,803 50,728
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 19.6 70.7 63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -24.8 29.2 -28.0

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 18.9 44.6 3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.5 36.4 1.9
– Net Position: -20,716 17,594 3,122
– Gross Longs: 40,797 96,203 7,263
– Gross Shorts: 61,513 78,609 4,141
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 83.7 17.9 51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.4 17.9 -31.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -146,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,212 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 19.0 45.5 5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 32.2 35.1 2.2
– Net Position: -146,217 115,610 30,607
– Gross Longs: 211,299 505,086 55,322
– Gross Shorts: 357,516 389,476 24,715
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.6 to 1 1.3 to 1 2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 34.7 67.3 56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -0.5 5.4 -39.4

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 57,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 33.0 44.3 6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.4 66.1 4.8
– Net Position: 57,245 -63,345 6,100
– Gross Longs: 96,105 128,840 19,965
– Gross Shorts: 38,860 192,185 13,865
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.5 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 28.4 73.7 48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 3.1 -1.2 -10.8

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 13.0 51.6 13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 11.3 58.5 8.3
– Net Position: 4,897 -21,060 16,163
– Gross Longs: 39,255 156,088 41,332
– Gross Shorts: 34,358 177,148 25,169
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.6 48.9 54.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -22.3 23.3 -23.3

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -9,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 71.3 25.1 1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 96.1 1.5 0.1
– Net Position: -9,995 9,537 458
– Gross Longs: 28,751 10,137 500
– Gross Shorts: 38,746 600 42
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 16.9 to 1 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 69.2 30.0 44.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 15.2 -14.3 -11.6

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.