InvestMacro

On Monday, US stock indices closed higher, supported by renewed interest in the technology sector and companies linked to artificial intelligence. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.72%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.12%. Market leaders were semiconductor manufacturers and major tech companies. The sector was supported by news of expanded partnership between Broadcom and Apple, as well as optimistic statements from Hon Hai Precision Industry regarding demand for AI technologies. Despite the fact that most stocks within the S&P 500 Index declined, the rise of heavyweight tech companies allowed the market to start the week on a positive note. Economic data published that day confirmed that the US services sector remains in expansion territory (PMI at 51.2), although growth has slightly slowed and companies continue hiring amid some easing of price pressure. Investors maintain cautious optimism ahead of Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which will help clarify the future trajectory of monetary policy as the regulator balances inflation risks and labor‑market dynamics.

European indices closed higher on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.15% and updated its all‑time high. France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.33%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.85%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.26%. Investor optimism was driven by expectations of strong quarterly reports from technology companies and falling oil prices. A significant event of the day was the German cabinet’s approval of the 2027 budget draft. The document proposes a sharp increase in government spending to 555.4 billion euros, with particular emphasis on defense: military expenditures are planned to rise to 109.7 billion euros, one‑third higher than this year’s levels. This decision aims to fulfill NATO commitments and strengthen the country’s sovereignty.

On Monday, WTI crude oil prices traded near 69 dollars per barrel, remaining at their lowest levels since late February. Pressure on prices intensified after OPEC+ countries agreed to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day next month, confirming a course toward gradually expanding supply. The physical market also contributes to lower prices: exports from Saudi Arabia are approaching pre‑war volumes, and the United Arab Emirates have fully restored their maritime shipments.

Platinum prices (XPT) traded near 1,630 dollars per ounce, maintaining a sideways trend around the lowest levels since November 2025. The main pressure on the metal continues to come from the strengthening US dollar, although the decline in prices is limited by signs of cooling in the US labor market, which forces investors to reassess expectations regarding the pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Fundamentally, the platinum market remains structurally tight despite current price volatility. Production at South African mines continues to face disruptions due to electricity supply issues, and efforts to expand output in Russia have not yet led to a significant reduction in the structural deficit or an increase in limited above‑ground inventories.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.01%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.33%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 1.14%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.15%. On Tuesday, Chinese indices traded in the red. Market sentiment deteriorated noticeably after the World Bank published its economic expectation for China, predicting a slowdown in growth to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027. The main reasons for this revision, according to experts, are the prolonged downturn in the real estate sector and subdued consumer demand. Despite the negative dynamics, Beijing and Hong Kong continue implementing initiatives to strengthen the city’s position as a leading offshore center for yuan operations, including the development of bond‑trading instruments and expansion of currency operations.

On Friday, US indices were not traded due to a public holiday in the United States. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 2.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 2.33%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.00% over five trading days.

This week, market attention in the US will be focused on the release of the minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Reserve (June 16-17, 2026), at which the regulator under its new chair Kevin Warsh kept the interest rate at 3.5-3.75%. Investors will look for details of discussions on future tightening, considering the committee’s hawkish signal about readiness for further rate hikes before year‑end to combat inflationary pressure. In addition, the macroeconomic calendar includes important indicators of economic conditions. The ISM services PMI is expected to show sector resilience, and existing home sales may reach their highest level since the beginning of the year. A significant widening of the trade deficit to 78.8 billion dollars is also expected amid rising imports and declining exports. The market will also pay attention to consumer credit data and inflation expectations, which will complement the overall picture of economic slowdown amid persistent high inflation.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade near yearly lows, holding around 1.42 USD. The main factor pressuring the national currency remains the combination of unfavorable conditions in energy markets and high uncertainty in trade relations with the US. Despite the general weakening of the US dollar after the release of weak US nonfarm payrolls data, the Canadian dollar could not fully benefit from this, as falling global oil prices negatively affected the country’s trade balance, reinforcing expectations of dovish policy from the Bank of Canada (BoC).

The Mexican peso at the beginning of July remains near 17.5 per dollar, balancing under the influence of conflicting factors. On one hand, the weakening of the US dollar amid weak June labor market statistics and correction in energy prices supports the national currency, reducing inflation risks. On the other hand, significant pressure comes from growing uncertainty surrounding North American trade relations, caused by the US administration’s decision not to extend the USMCA agreement in its current form.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.78% (weekly +4.27%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.39% (weekly +1.54%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.92% (weekly +2.37%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.25% (weekly +1.63%).

The European agenda for the current week is focused on central bank signals and industrial sector recovery. On Thursday, the ECB will publish the minutes of its June meeting, at which the regulator decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. Investors will analyze these details to assess the ECB’s further plans for monetary policy normalization amid slowing inflation. The macroeconomic calendar of Germany and other Eurozone countries shows cautious signs of recovery: German industrial production is expected to grow for the second consecutive month, and manufacturing orders are expected to begin recovering. At the same time, pressure on trade indicators persists: Germany’s trade surplus may shrink for the fourth consecutive month, reflecting the impact of geopolitical factors on exports.

Brent crude oil prices at the beginning of July 2026 stabilized around 70-72 dollars per barrel, showing a pronounced downward trend amid weakening geopolitical premium. The key factor behind this decline was progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, which led to the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and normalization of hydrocarbon shipments. As logistics routes recovered, export volumes from Persian Gulf countries increased significantly: Saudi Arabia’s exports returned to 90% of pre‑war levels, and shipments from the UAE and Iraq also showed steady recovery. The rise in global supply, coinciding with signs of slowing demand from China, forced investors and major financial institutions such as UBS and Morgan Stanley to revise oil price expectations downward, removing concerns about large‑scale supply disruptions from market pricing.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.47% (weekly +0.19%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.57% (weekly -2.77%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.28% (weekly +1.73%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by 1.37% (weekly +0.77%).

In the upcoming week, the economic landscape of the Asia‑Pacific region will be shaped by central bank decisions and key inflation indicators. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will be in focus: despite broad expectations of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike to 2.5%, some analysts allow for the possibility of keeping the current level at 2.25% due to the impact of falling energy prices on overall inflation risks. China will publish inflation data, where consumer prices are expected to remain at 1.2% while producer inflation accelerates to 4.1%. In Japan, the market will focus on a wide range of data, including household spending, producer prices, and a 37.4% increase in machinery orders, which, amid pressure on the yen, makes these reports critically important for assessing the resilience of the Japanese economy.

On Thursday, US indices showed mixed dynamics, reflecting a deep split between the overheated technology sector and the “traditional” economy. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.14%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at its opening price. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower by 0.80%. Semiconductor manufacturers (Micron, Applied Materials, AMD, SanDisk, Marvell) continued a second wave of sell‑offs amid doubts about the sustainability of AI‑company valuations, while the Dow Jones Index updated its historical high. The key driver of Dow’s growth was US employment data, which came in weaker than expected. This cooled market fears regarding immediate Fed tightening and offset negative sentiment.

European indices closed in the green on Thursday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 2.16%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.65%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.37%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 1.67%. On Thursday, the DAX 40 Index showed impressive growth, updating its historical high. The main driver of optimism was a large reform package from Friedrich Merz’s government, including tax relief for households and housing‑sector initiatives, which, combined with weakening hawkish expectations for Fed and ECB policy, created a favorable investment environment.

The US natural gas prices fell below 3.2 dollars per MMBtu amid oversupply and bearish dynamics in related energy markets. According to the EIA report, weekly storage injections reached 87 billion cubic feet, exceeding expectations and keeping inventories 6.2% above historical averages. Fundamental pressure is complemented by high production activity: output in the continental states remains near a record 110 billion cubic feet per day, while LNG export capacity is steadily loaded at 17.3 billion cubic feet per day.

Oil prices (WTI) fell by 2% to around 67 dollars per barrel, reaching pre‑war levels amid a sharp increase in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which exceeded 10 million barrels per day. The market is reacting to the recovery of export flows from the UAE and active releases of oil from reserves, which, along with one‑off sales by Saudi Arabia, form a persistent oversupply. Meanwhile, US domestic oil inventories have reached their lowest level since March 2025, reflecting the consequences of a twelve‑week period of continuous declines.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.47%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 3.11%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.76%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.02%. Market optimism was driven by improved global risk sentiment after weak US labor‑market data, which reduced fears of further Fed rate hikes. Additional support for risk appetite came from falling oil prices amid normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which eased inflationary pressure and created a favorable backdrop for a wide range of assets.

The Australian dollar is strengthening for the second session in a row, approaching 0.690 USD and ending the week in the green. Growth is supported by the hawkish interpretation of the minutes from the June meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia: analysts at CBA and ANZ highlighted the regulator’s concern about excessive demand and capacity constraints, which signals persistent inflation risks despite market skepticism regarding further rate hikes.

The New Zealand dollar recovered to 0.570, breaking a prolonged downward trend and showing its first weekly gain in three weeks. The main catalyst for optimism was the weakening of the US dollar caused by disappointing US labor‑market data, which forced investors to revise expectations regarding aggressive Fed rate hikes. Positive dynamics for the kiwi are also supported by market anticipation of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision at the upcoming meeting. Despite expert discussions about the appropriateness of a pause in tightening due to falling global energy prices, market pricing reflects a roughly 78% probability of a rate hike.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.03%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.22%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed lower by 1.54%. Investors began to doubt the justification for high investments in AI, which led to a collapse in Micron Technology shares by -10.6%, AMD fell by -6.9%, and Intel by -9%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones remained almost unchanged, as companies from “non‑tech” sectors limited the overall market decline.

Speaking at the ECB forum in Sintra, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the regulator’s commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target despite the recent stabilization of price pressures. The head of the regulator emphasized the preservation of the Fed’s institutional independence and announced the final abandonment of the “forward guidance” practice, shifting to a fully data‑dependent decision‑making model. Considering that at the June meeting the Fed adopted a hawkish stance with an emphasis on potential rate hikes before the end of the year, the abandonment of preliminary guidance increases volatility in expectations and underscores the institution’s determination to maintain restrictive conditions until the downward inflation trend becomes sustainable.

European indices closed mixed on Wednesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.79%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.34%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session lower by 0.18%. Preliminary data for June 2026 indicated a significant slowdown in Eurozone inflation to 2.8% from 3.2% in May, which was noticeably below market expectations of 3.0%. This is the lowest reading since February, achieved thanks to a substantial decline in energy price growth to 8.7%, as well as cooling inflationary pressure in services to 3.2% and food to 1.6%. The core Index, excluding volatile energy and food components, also fell to 2.4%, indicating a gradual weakening of overall price pressure. Positive dynamics were observed in almost all major economies of the bloc, with indicators in Germany, France, and Italy declining significantly, while Spain maintained inflation at 3.6%.

On Wednesday, crude oil prices fell below the psychological mark of 68 dollars per barrel, updating to a four‑month low amid signs of de‑escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The resumption of shipping and constructive indirect negotiations between the US and Iran in Qatar reduced the geopolitical premium in energy prices, triggering a wave of selling in the markets. Pressure on prices is also being exerted by the fundamental factor of oversupply. Despite Tehran maintaining claims to administrative control over the strait, the partial restoration of tanker flows has significantly eased market participants’ concerns about the stability of global supplies, forcing investors to revise their positions toward a bearish scenario.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.59%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 1.15%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) did not trade yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower yesterday by 0.64%.

The Australian dollar continues to consolidate near a three‑month low below 0.690 USD under pressure from weak macroeconomic data and revised market expectations for monetary policy. The unexpected trade deficit for May of 3.02 billion Australian dollars, the worst figure since late 2015, resulted from a decline in export shipments alongside a record high in imports, which significantly worsened investor sentiment. As a result, markets sharply reduced the probability of an August rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 15%, with every second market participant now expecting the tightening cycle to end.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.26%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.79%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 1.52%. The main driver of growth was the technology sector, where investors ignored concerns about AI‑company valuations in favor of strong expectations from semiconductor manufacturers: AMD shares jumped by 7.7%, Intel rose by 6%, and Nvidia added 2.6%. Additional support for the market came from the stabilization of oil prices at pre‑conflict levels, which reduced inflationary pressure and eased fears of aggressive Fed rate hikes.

European indices closed in the green on Tuesday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.50%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.44%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session higher by 0.12%. On Tuesday, European stock markets ended trading with solid gains thanks to easing inflationary pressure, which strengthened expectations of a softer monetary policy and lower borrowing costs for businesses. Weaker‑than‑expected inflation readings in Germany, France, and Italy reinforced investors’ belief that the price growth, which accelerated due to the Middle Eastern conflict, is beginning to stabilize. Against this backdrop, market participants revised expectations for ECB rates, reducing the likelihood of further tightening this year. This supported the bond market and improved credit activity predictions. The banking sector reacted with gains: shares of UniCredit, BNP Paribas, and ING rose by about 2%. Significant growth was also seen in technology and industrial companies – Siemens and Siemens Energy shares rose after positive prognosis for the development of the data‑center market, while ASML shares jumped 7% following renewed interest in semiconductor manufacturers.

The rise of silver to the level of 60 dollars per ounce after falling to seven‑month lows shows that the market has begun reacting more strongly to fundamental industrial demand rather than solely to interest‑rate factors. Unlike gold, silver remains both a safe‑haven metal and an industrial raw material, so its dynamics often differ during technological cycles. Support for prices is currently provided by renewed interest in the semiconductor sector, data‑processing centers, and the expansion of computing infrastructure – areas where silver is used due to its high electrical conductivity.

On Tuesday, oil prices remained around 70.2 dollars per barrel, while in the second quarter the market recorded a decline of roughly 30%, marking the sharpest quarterly drop since 2020. Pressure on prices intensified due to increased supply linked to rising shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz after progress in peace negotiations, which allowed previously restricted volumes from the Persian Gulf to be released. Additional influence came from US sanctions exemptions for Iran, which added new oil volumes to the market amid already high supply, including shipments bypassing restrictions.

Natural gas prices in the US rose by more than 3%, approaching 3.30 dollars per MMBtu. The main growth factors were increased supply to LNG export terminals and expectations of record electricity consumption. Additional support for the market comes from a massive heat wave: high temperatures are forcing households to use cooling systems more actively, and in some regions, including New York, outlooks point to levels close to historical highs. Given projections of persistent extreme heat until mid‑July, increased load on gas‑fired power plants is expected, which provide about 40% of the country’s electricity generation.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.86%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.97%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.63%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.51%.

On Monday, the offshore yuan weakened to around 6.79 per dollar, breaking a two‑day rise amid growing investor concerns about China’s economic outlook. Negative sentiment was reinforced by the results of a private business‑activity survey, according to which the manufacturing PMI fell to a three‑month low (51.7 versus 51.8 in May). These data contrasted with official statistics published on June 30, which showed an increase in the manufacturing PMI, but markets focused on more alarming assessments from Goldman Sachs analysts: experts noted weak consumer confidence, a prolonged real‑estate crisis, and persistent pressure on the labor market. Pressure on the currency intensified despite the People’s Bank of China setting the daily midpoint at 6.8067 per dollar, the strongest fixing in three years.

The New Zealand dollar fell to 0.566 USD, consolidating near seven‑month lows amid continued strengthening of the US dollar. Investors remain cautious, assessing the monetary policy outlook of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand ahead of next week’s meeting. Analysts’ opinions on further rate hikes remain mixed: on the one hand, the market is pricing in the possibility of tightening; on the other hand, the recent decline in global oil prices reduces the need for aggressive measures.