Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 6

Yen weakens amid intervention concerns and interest rate differentials

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen is experiencing a notable decline against the US dollar, with the USD/JPY pair currently hovering around 151.88 on Tuesday. Despite the US dollar’s instability, driven primarily by fluctuations in Treasury bond yields, the yen faces significant downward pressure.

Market participants remain cautious, particularly as the USD/JPY pair approaches levels that had previously triggered currency interventions by Japanese authorities. Despite aggressive verbal measures from Japan aimed at bolstering the yen, these efforts have shown limited success. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has reiterated Japan’s commitment to addressing the yen’s excessive depreciation, echoing his earlier statements about readiness to intervene against further declines in its value.

However, the prospect of intervention, although a genuine threat, has thus far prevented the yen from breaching the 152.00 mark.

This substantial interest rate differential between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is a critical factor contributing to the yen’s weakness. While the BoJ has only recently moved away from its negative interest rate policy, setting its lending rate back to zero, the Federal Reserve maintains a fund rate of 5.5% per annum, with no cuts implemented thus far.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has completed a growth wave to 151.75 and corrected to the 150.80 level. Another growth wave to 151.75 has been observed today, with the market forming a consolidation range around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a rise to 152.07. After reaching this level, a correction to 151.75 (testing from above) may occur, followed by an increase to 152.70. This scenario is supported by the MACD oscillator, with its signal line above zero and poised to reach new highs.

On the H1 chart, support at 151.75 has bolstered the development of a growth structure to 152.07. After achieving this target, a correction to 151.75 may be seen, potentially leading to further growth towards 152.70, the main target of the growth wave. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this analysis with its signal line above 50 and preparing to ascend to 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Apr

Israel withdraws troops from the southern Gaza Strip. Canada’s labor market remains resilient

By JustMarkets

Stock indices rose Friday on optimism that growth in the US economy will continue to drive consumer spending and corporate profits. Stocks rose even after a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report released Friday raised the likelihood of a longer-term interest rate hike. The Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.80% (for the week -1.64%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index increased by 1.11% (for the week -1.02%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.24% on Friday (for the week -1.31%).

The US nonfarm payrolls for March rose 303,000, exceeding expectations of 214,000 and representing the largest increase in 10 months. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 3.8% in March, matching expectations. The US average hourly earnings fell to 4.1% y/y from 4.3% y/y in February, matching expectations and representing the slowest rate of growth in 2 years.

Fed spokeswoman Bowman said she still sees several upside risks to inflation and “it is not yet time” to cut interest rates. She added that it is possible that the federal funds rate level consistent with low and stable inflation “will be higher than it was before the pandemic, and if so, fewer rate cuts will eventually be needed to return our monetary policy stance to neutral.” Dallas Fed President Logan said on Friday that it was “too early” to cut interest rates because there are concerns that inflationary progress could stall and that price growth may not cool down to the Fed’s 2 percent target in a “timely manner.” The Fed’s hawkish comments on Friday drove bond yields higher and suggested that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 6% for the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 58% for the next meeting on June 12.

Tesla (TSLA) stock price fell more than 3% and topped the Nasdaq 100 losers list after reports that the company canceled its plans for a low-cost entry-level Tesla car.

The number of jobs in Canada was unchanged last month, but the fundamentals fared better. Average hourly earnings in Canada rose to a 4.5% m/m SAAR. This is a solid increase after 4.3% in the previous month. On the other hand, rising wages are a factor in rising inflation, which may force the Bank of Canada to delay plans to start cutting rates. The Bank of Canada is looking at an annualized rate of 5%, up a tick from the previous month. It means that wages are rising too fast relative to the inflation target.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 1.24% (for the week -1.64%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.11% on Friday (for the week -1.89%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 1.58% (for the week -1.44%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.81% on Friday (for the week -0.26%).

Eurozone February retail sales fell by 0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.4% m/m. German Factory Orders in February rose by 0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.7% m/m. The German Import Price Index for February fell by 0.2% m/m and 4.9% y/y, weaker than expectations of unchanged m/m and 4.6% y/y. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on April 11 and 97% at the next meeting on June 6.

WTI crude oil prices fell more than 2% to $85 a barrel on Monday as Israel withdrew troops from the southern Gaza Strip in response to mounting international pressure. Israel and Hamas also resumed peace talks in Egypt, easing tensions that have led to the recent surge in oil prices. Meanwhile, major oil exporter Saudi Arabia raised official selling prices for all grades of crude for Asia in May amid tightening global supply.

Asian markets were mostly down last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 4.07%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.17% for the week, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.59%.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said inflation will likely accelerate from “summer to fall” as a sharp wage rise will increase prices. It was his strongest hint yet of the possibility of another rate hike in the coming months. Ueda added that the central bank could “respond with monetary policy” if currency movements significantly affect inflation and wages, suggesting that a sharp fall in the yen could affect the timing of the next rate hike.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to quickly decide to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. Still, the central bank will have to deal with stagnant inflation amid growing financial stress. The official money rate is forecast to be kept at 5.5%, but there could be dovish adjustments to the forecasts. UBS believes that the RBNZ will wait until November before cutting interest rates.

On Sunday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a 500 billion yuan “re-lending” program for technology innovation and transformation to support small and medium-sized technology enterprises. This week, investors await China’s latest inflation data for economic and monetary policy insights.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,204.34 +57.13 (+1.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,904.04 +307.06 (+0.80%)

DAX (DE40) 18,175.04 −228.09 (−1.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,911.16 −64.73 (−0.81%)

USD Index 104.29 +0.17 (+0.16%)

Important events today:

– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– German Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 18:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

08 Apr

Gold hits new record high amid favourable factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold’s price soared to a new record high on Monday, stabilising around 2344.00 USD per troy ounce. A confluence of factors is currently bolstering the precious metal’s value.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are a significant driver, positioning gold as a preferred “safe-haven” investment. Additionally, central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves, while global exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the metal’s price continue to show keen interest.

Recent US job market data for March surpassed expectations, indicating a robust end to the first quarter for the US economy. These developments could impact the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, as lower rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding gold, further supporting its price increase.

Since the start of the year, gold has appreciated over 12% in value, showcasing an impressive performance for what is traditionally viewed as a conservative asset.

XAU/USD technical analysis

The H4 chart for XAU/USD indicates that a growth wave reached 2330.00, followed by the formation of a consolidation range around this level. This range has now expanded to 2353.85. A technical retracement to 2330.00 is anticipated (testing from above), with potential subsequent growth to 2380.33 as a local target. The MACD indicator, with its signal line well above zero and pointing upwards, supports this growth scenario.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD established support at 2269.00, completing a growth structure to 2330.53. A consolidation range has formed around this level, now extended to 2353.85. A corrective move to 2327.50 (testing from above) is expected, potentially leading to a new growth wave towards 2386.36. This forecast is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line preparing to drop to 50 before climbing back to 80.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

06 Apr

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (7,956 contracts) with Silver (2,311 contracts), Platinum (1,394 contracts) and Steel (1,074 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-2,787 contracts) and Palladium (-302 contracts).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Steel (94 percent) lead the metals markets this week and are at or near the top of their ranges. Gold (70 percent) and Copper (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is just at the Extreme-Bearish cutoff (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Platinum (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.2 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (96.5 percent)
Copper (62.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (65.7 percent)
Platinum (41.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (37.2 percent)
Palladium (19.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.8 percent)
Steel (93.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.5 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (47 percent) and Copper (41 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (30.1 percent), Palladium (14 percent) and Steel (8 percent) are the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (30.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (30.6 percent)
Silver (46.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (58.3 percent)
Copper (40.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (62.3 percent)
Platinum (0.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (14.0 percent)
Palladium (13.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.8 percent)
Steel (7.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (1.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 207,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 199,294 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	25.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	70.6	6.1
– Net Position:	207,250	-225,714	18,464
– Gross Longs:	281,399	127,114	48,931
– Gross Shorts:	74,149	352,828	30,467
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.8	33.2	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.1	-27.1	-2.2

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	25.7	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	66.3	9.1
– Net Position:	53,147	-67,706	14,559
– Gross Longs:	83,565	42,938	29,775
– Gross Shorts:	30,418	110,644	15,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	8.4	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.7	-37.5	-5.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 20,296 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,083 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	29.7	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	39.6	5.1
– Net Position:	20,296	-28,946	8,650
– Gross Longs:	126,866	87,434	23,592
– Gross Shorts:	106,570	116,380	14,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	35.5	73.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.5	-46.1	56.3

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	24.1	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	41.6	4.1
– Net Position:	8,589	-13,982	5,393
– Gross Longs:	45,845	19,311	8,703
– Gross Shorts:	37,256	33,293	3,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.0	58.1	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	1.2	-7.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,900 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.3	61.1	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.2	9.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-10,202	10,184	18
– Gross Longs:	4,776	12,013	1,618
– Gross Shorts:	14,978	1,829	1,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	6.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	83.1	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.0	7.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,074 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	77.7	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	75.6	0.9
– Net Position:	-714	480	234
– Gross Longs:	3,659	18,460	448
– Gross Shorts:	4,373	17,980	214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.6	6.5	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-7.7	3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

06 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (106,714 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (24,537 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (8,350 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-134,791 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-35,105 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-20,678 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-14,848 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-4,880 contracts).

Bonds Weekly Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (79 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (64 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (27 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (30 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (52.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (34.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (35.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (20.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (29.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (27.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (28.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (59.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (65.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (78.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (77.2 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (14 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 5-Year Bonds (-3 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (19.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (11.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-3.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (17.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (18.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (13.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (32.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (15.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-13.3 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 353,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 24,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 328,548 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	55.0	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	58.4	0.4
– Net Position:	353,085	-343,626	-9,459
– Gross Longs:	1,769,579	5,505,965	25,906
– Gross Shorts:	1,416,494	5,849,591	35,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	21.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	1.0	-1.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -73,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 106,714 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -179,929 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	69.4	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	65.2	2.1
– Net Position:	-73,215	73,836	-621
– Gross Longs:	227,865	1,224,028	36,667
– Gross Shorts:	301,080	1,150,192	37,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	45.4	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-20.0	9.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -934,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -913,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	79.3	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	57.7	3.6
– Net Position:	-934,574	821,385	113,189
– Gross Longs:	442,394	3,013,756	251,456
– Gross Shorts:	1,376,968	2,192,371	138,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	62.8	87.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-11.5	-6.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,284,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -134,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	84.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.2	5.1
– Net Position:	-1,284,301	1,183,655	100,646
– Gross Longs:	374,032	5,155,365	410,424
– Gross Shorts:	1,658,333	3,971,710	309,778
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	88.4	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	2.9	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -569,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -578,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	65.3	9.1
– Net Position:	-569,957	538,818	31,139
– Gross Longs:	445,011	3,402,179	429,927
– Gross Shorts:	1,014,968	2,863,361	398,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	63.9	80.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.9	-15.2	-8.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -142,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -138,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	73.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	63.0	13.8
– Net Position:	-142,994	210,721	-67,727
– Gross Longs:	295,548	1,499,959	214,856
– Gross Shorts:	438,542	1,289,238	282,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	67.0	73.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-18.0	14.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -35,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	69.8	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	68.8	10.9
– Net Position:	-55,690	14,907	40,783
– Gross Longs:	235,043	1,065,632	207,214
– Gross Shorts:	290,733	1,050,725	166,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	20.9	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-11.7	-7.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -313,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,848 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -298,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	79.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	59.8	11.2
– Net Position:	-313,453	314,753	-1,300
– Gross Longs:	144,656	1,264,584	176,663
– Gross Shorts:	458,109	949,831	177,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	50.7	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	6.1	-20.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

06 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (17,036 contracts) with Coffee (11,447 contracts), Lean Hogs (8,408 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,994 contracts), Wheat (1,465 contracts) and Cotton (126 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-8,692 contracts), Live Cattle (-6,854 contracts), Soybeans (-4,326 contracts), Corn (-3,315 contracts) and Cocoa (-2,659 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (97 percent) and Cotton (76 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (65 percent), Cocoa (44 percent) and Live Cattle (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (9 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is in Wheat (26 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (10.9 percent)
Sugar (33.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (26.9 percent)
Coffee (96.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (9.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (11.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.2 percent)
Live Cattle (43.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (51.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (65.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (58.2 percent)
Cotton (75.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (75.4 percent)
Cocoa (44.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.0 percent)
Wheat (25.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (22 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (12 percent), Corn (10 percent) and Sugar (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-11 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Live Cattle (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (9.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (11.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.2 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (10.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (2.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (6.4 percent)
Live Cattle (-2.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (14.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (21.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.2 percent)
Cotton (-4.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (3.5 percent)
Cocoa (-14.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-13.3 percent)
Wheat (-10.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-22.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -181,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,315 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -178,021 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	43.1	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	31.2	10.5
– Net Position:	-181,336	192,640	-11,304
– Gross Longs:	294,298	698,351	159,330
– Gross Shorts:	475,634	505,711	170,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	10.5	88.4	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-11.6	7.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,461 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	51.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	67.0	7.3
– Net Position:	117,461	-133,030	15,569
– Gross Longs:	196,650	433,097	76,912
– Gross Shorts:	79,189	566,127	61,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.1	68.7	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.8	14.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,482 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.4	35.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	63.0	2.8
– Net Position:	67,482	-69,399	1,917
– Gross Longs:	90,293	86,645	8,823
– Gross Shorts:	22,811	156,044	6,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.6	6.9	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-12.7	16.0

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -158,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,714 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	60.4	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	39.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-158,040	169,140	-11,100
– Gross Longs:	95,389	496,933	52,452
– Gross Shorts:	253,429	327,793	63,552
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.8	91.6	78.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.6	0.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	44.6	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	44.8	4.4
– Net Position:	-3,857	-1,239	5,096
– Gross Longs:	117,212	262,783	30,930
– Gross Shorts:	121,069	264,022	25,834
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.9	71.4	33.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.1	14.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -38,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	49.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	44.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-38,437	23,944	14,493
– Gross Longs:	92,955	235,819	46,577
– Gross Shorts:	131,392	211,875	32,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.6	87.2	20.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-2.1	-8.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 60,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	34.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.3	52.1	11.7
– Net Position:	60,056	-53,210	-6,846
– Gross Longs:	115,438	104,081	28,519
– Gross Shorts:	55,382	157,291	35,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	57.7	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	4.8	-11.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 43,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	34.2	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	46.9	10.5
– Net Position:	43,135	-36,362	-6,773
– Gross Longs:	106,839	98,353	23,519
– Gross Shorts:	63,704	134,715	30,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	37.6	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.9	-21.8	-8.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	36.9	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	71.0	3.5
– Net Position:	88,765	-97,058	8,293
– Gross Longs:	119,875	105,058	18,390
– Gross Shorts:	31,110	202,116	10,097
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.5	24.6	66.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	4.4	-0.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	35.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.1	56.7	4.6
– Net Position:	33,671	-39,902	6,231
– Gross Longs:	59,653	64,498	14,675
– Gross Shorts:	25,982	104,400	8,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	52.0	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	12.8	14.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -60,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,722 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.7	35.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	21.1	7.7
– Net Position:	-60,257	59,755	502
– Gross Longs:	119,394	147,382	32,581
– Gross Shorts:	179,651	87,627	32,079
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.7	71.1	68.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	7.5	23.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

06 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (91,317 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (1,921 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (86 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-6,429 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,417 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-626 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-472 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (87 percent) and the Russell-Mini (69 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is currently the only market with a score below 50 percent (the midpoint of the past three years of positions).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (53.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (39.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (28.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (69.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (69.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (50.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (57.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (58.2 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (21 percent), the Nikkei 225 (9 percent) and the Russell2000-Mini (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-12 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-12.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (7.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (20.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (6.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-0.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-47.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-60.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (1.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (2.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (8.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (5.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (23.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (20.6 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -50,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,429 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,902 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.4	45.9	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	31.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,331	53,551	-3,220
– Gross Longs:	67,410	168,474	27,253
– Gross Shorts:	117,741	114,923	30,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.6	38.4	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.1	6.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -78,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 91,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -169,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	70.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.7	8.5
– Net Position:	-78,122	-20,612	98,734
– Gross Longs:	290,089	1,476,688	275,700
– Gross Shorts:	368,211	1,497,300	176,966
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	37.1	76.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-22.6	9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,012 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	49.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	70.3	11.9
– Net Position:	16,595	-19,811	3,216
– Gross Longs:	32,106	45,901	14,377
– Gross Shorts:	15,511	65,712	11,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	9.5	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-1.3	5.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.2	57.4	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	58.1	13.3
– Net Position:	-5,195	-1,570	6,765
– Gross Longs:	65,399	149,038	41,324
– Gross Shorts:	70,594	150,608	34,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	50.8	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-47.7	33.8	-0.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -626 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	76.8	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	74.3	4.2
– Net Position:	-22,173	11,733	10,440
– Gross Longs:	74,238	363,074	30,378
– Gross Shorts:	96,411	351,341	19,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.4	28.0	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-5.1	20.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 86 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	69.5	25.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	67.9	12.5
– Net Position:	-2,506	275	2,231
– Gross Longs:	863	11,962	4,386
– Gross Shorts:	3,369	11,687	2,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.6	36.1	73.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-11.5	10.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -8,405 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -472 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	89.0	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	88.5	1.3
– Net Position:	-8,405	2,328	6,077
– Gross Longs:	34,826	393,315	11,626
– Gross Shorts:	43,231	390,987	5,549
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	39.5	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.6	-23.8	2.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

05 Apr

Stock indices saw a sharp sell-off yesterday amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials

By JustMarkets

US stock indices opened higher on Thursday on positivity from Wednesday, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating his view that it would probably be appropriate to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. But by the end of the trading session, the stock market began a strong selloff amid hawkish comments from FOMC officials. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said inflation is still too high. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said a Fed rate cut may not be needed this year if progress on inflation stalls. At yesterday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) index was down 1.35%, and the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 1.35%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.40%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes fell to two-week lows, while the Dow Jones Industrials fell to a 2-week low.

The US trade deficit, a key indicator of the country’s economic health, widened to $68.9 billion in February 2024, the highest in ten months. This was up from an upwardly revised $67.6 billion in January, surpassing forecasts of a $67.3 billion deficit. The data reflected a $0.3 billion decline in the goods deficit to $91.4 billion and a $1.6 billion surplus in services to $22.5 billion. Notably, exports rose by 2.3% to a record high of $263 billion, while imports rose 2.2% to $331.9 billion. This data has implications for the dollar index, suggesting a positive trend.

The monthly Nonfarm payrolls labor market report, a crucial economic indicator, is set to be released in the US today. The US economy is expected to have added 205k new jobs in March, maintaining the unemployment rate at 3.9%. However, average hourly earnings are expected to have declined from 4.3% to 4.1% year-over-year. This report will be the focus of investor attention, with many anticipating a soft landing for the economy. If the data set is worse than expected, particularly in terms of wages, it could put pressure on the US dollar, benefiting risk assets and indices. Conversely, if the data set is generally positive, especially if NFP turns out to be hotter than expected, it could delay the likelihood of a rate cut, providing support for the dollar. In such a scenario, indices and gold would come under pressure.

Canada reported a trade surplus of CAD 1.4 billion in February 2024, up from a revised surplus of CAD 0.6 billion in January and well above market forecasts of a CAD 0.8 billion surplus. Exports rose by 5.8% for the month to CAD 66.6 billion.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.19%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.02%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.48%.

The minutes of the latest ECB meeting showed that policymakers are increasingly confident that inflation will return to the 2% target and that the case for lower interest rates is strengthening. However, they emphasized that they must wait for further data on wages and service prices before taking any steps.

Escalating geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions, OPEC+ efforts to curb supply and strong energy demand forecasts are provoking further oil price rises.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 0.81%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.45%.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held the benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting amid continued price pressures. The latest move came after annual inflation stood at 5.09% in February 2024, almost unchanged from January, after hitting a four-month high of 5.69% in December 2023, remaining within the RBI’s target range of 2-6% in the medium term. The RBI governor reiterated its commitment to bring inflation down to 4% on time and sustainably. The central bank also maintained its economic growth forecast for FY 2025 at 7%, with projections of 7.1% in Q1, 6.9% in Q2, and Q3 and Q4 at 7% each.

Australia’s trade surplus in goods for February 2024 fell to A$7.28 billion from a downwardly revised A$10.06 billion in the previous month, below market forecasts of A$10.4 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since September last year as exports fell and imports rose.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,147.21 −64.28 (−1.23%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,596.98 −530.16 (−1.35%)

DAX (DE40) 18,403.13 +35.41 (+0.19%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,975.89 +38.45 (+0.48%)

USD Index 104.26 −0.55 (−0.53%)

Important events today:

– Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Apr

AUD takes a pause after rally

By RoboForex Analytical Department

After three days of significant gains, the Australian dollar is retreating against its American counterpart, with the AUD/USD pair falling to 0.6573.

The US dollar has rebounded after Federal Reserve officials expressed doubts about an immediate monetary policy easing. The discussion around interest rates and the timing of their reduction has become a central topic in the market. Signals that the Fed is prepared to cut rates three times this year, making borrowing costs more affordable, have put pressure on the US dollar, allowing other currencies to recover. However, signs that the Federal Reserve is still awaiting more data before deciding have led to a rebound in the USD and a decline in overall market sentiment.

Australia’s statistical data revealed that import volumes grew by 4.8% month-over-month in February, compared to a previous increase of 1.4%. Export volumes decreased by 2.2% month-over-month, with January’s figure at 1.5%. The positive trade balance in February was the lowest in five months, primarily due to a drop in overseas shipments of iron ore.

For the third consecutive meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the interest rate unchanged at 4.35% annually, its highest level in 12 years. Meanwhile, the RBA has omitted any mention of potential rate hikes from its comments, confident in reducing inflationary pressure. This has led to forecasts that borrowing costs in Australia may decrease later this year.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave to 0.6480 and a correction to 0.6617 have been completed. We expect the start of a new decline to 0.6422. The first structure of the decline is forming today, targeting 0.6520. After completing this, we anticipate a consolidation range. Exiting this range downward could lead to a wave towards 0.6472, potentially extending the trend down to 0.6422. The MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero, supports this scenario, expecting new lows.

On the H1 chart of AUD/USD, a downward wave structure to 0.6520 is forming. Following this, a correction to 0.6572 is anticipated, and a decline to 0.6490, with the trend continuing to 0.6422, is expected. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 20 but poised to rise to 50, technically supports this scenario.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Apr

EUR/USD surges following Powell’s remarks on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair moved upward to 1.0844 on Thursday, marking an unexpected shift following a period of strong US dollar performance. This change in dynamics can be attributed to investors’ positive response to comments made by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future of interest rates. Powell’s remarks led to a surge in risk appetite, resulting in the dollar’s decline.

Powell indicated that economic indicators would heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rate adjustments. Traders interpreted his comments as suggesting that, given the recent modest nature of US economic data, the anticipated forecast of three rate cuts in 2024, starting in June, remains on the table. The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 75 basis points by the year’s end, which aligns with earlier statements from the Fed. These hinted at a majority consensus among monetary policy committee members to commence rate cuts within the year, contingent on economic data.

Powell’s reaffirming the Fed’s trajectory towards lower interest rates, with specific timing depending on upcoming data, sets the stage for March’s closely watched US employment market reports. The focus will be on whether the unemployment rate has remained steady and whether there has been any deceleration in the growth of average wages.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair has completed a correction to 1.0783, with a narrow consolidation range now established around this level. An upward breakout from this range could lead to a continuation of the correction to 1.0847, potentially followed by a new downward wave to 1.0694. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is below zero and the histogram peaks, suggesting a potential sharp decline.

The H1 chart reveals a corrective pattern towards 1.0847, with an expected shift towards 1.0783 to commence a decline phase. A new consolidation range at these levels could lead to further correction to 1.0888 or a downward wave to 1.0694 upon a breakout. The Stochastic oscillator, positioned above 80, anticipates a significant drop to the 50 mark, potentially leading to further declines.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.