InvestMacro

On Thursday, US stock indices posted gains after a volatile session. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.55%. The S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.17%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.09%. The main driver of optimism was the third consecutive day of declining oil prices amid reports of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. Diplomatic signals indicating a narrowing of differences and a potential resolution of the conflict supported the broader market, allowing the utilities, consumer discretionary, and materials sectors to lead gains despite underperformance in the energy segment. Market pressure came from a more than 7% drop in Walmart shares after the retailer warned of business risks associated with persistently high fuel costs.

In Europe, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.53%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.39%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.42%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.11%. Market sentiment was also restrained by weak macroeconomic data: preliminary Eurozone PMI indices reflected a noticeable slowdown in private‑sector activity due to the consequences of the conflict.

WTI crude‑oil prices reversed downward, losing more than 2% after a morning gain of 3%, reflecting heightened market volatility amid diplomatic progress in resolving the conflict with Iran. Investor optimism was supported by a statement from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio about encouraging signs of a possible agreement and reports of increased involvement from Pakistani mediators. In addition, Tehran’s willingness to limit exports of weapons‑grade uranium is seen as a constructive step toward meeting key US demands, reducing the risk of further escalation. Despite the current correction, oil prices remain nearly 50% above pre‑war levels, driven by a persistent structural supply deficit in the global market.

The US natural‑gas prices fell below $3.0 per MMBtu, retreating from two‑month highs. The main driver of the decline was a significant oversupply relative to current demand, confirmed by official statistics. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), for the week ending May 15, 2026, US energy companies injected 101 billion cubic feet of gas into underground storage – well above analyst expectations (95 bcf) and the five‑year seasonal average (92 bcf). As a result, total gas inventories strengthened their surplus status ahead of the summer season.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 3.14%, China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 1.21%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 1.03%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) rose by 1.47%.

The Australian stock market continued its upward momentum. A key support factor was speculation about monetary policy: the unexpected drop in employment in April (-18.6 thousand jobs) led investors to believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia may pause its rate‑hike cycle after three rounds of tightening this year. However, buying activity remains cautious ahead of next week’s release of the April Consumer Price Index. In March, inflation in Australia jumped to 4.6% year‑over‑year – the highest level since September 2023 – driven by global oil price increases due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.31%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.08%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 1.66%. After Wednesday’s close, the US market maintained a positive tone thanks to strong earnings from Nvidia. Nvidia’s quarterly revenue exceeded $81 billion, beating market expectations and confirming sustained high demand for artificial‑intelligence infrastructure. However, the revenue outlook for the July quarter – around $91 billion – was less optimistic than some analysts expected, slightly cooling investor enthusiasm. Additional market support came from signs of easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz after reports that three supertankers managed to leave the region with full oil cargoes.

The minutes of the April meeting of the FOMC showed that most Federal Reserve officials remain concerned about persistently high inflation and believe that further monetary tightening may become necessary if price growth continues to exceed the 2% target. Markets paid particular attention to the shift in tone within the Committee: many participants supported removing language implying a bias toward future policy easing – interpreted as an additional hawkish signal. This reflects growing concern that inflationary pressure, especially related to rising energy prices and geopolitical risks, may prove more persistent than previously expected.

Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.70%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up 0.99%.

On Wednesday, silver prices broke above $76 per ounce, reacting to positive signals about a potential agreement between the US and Iran. The decline in the geopolitical premium in oil prices eased concerns about long‑term inflationary pressure, reducing expectations of aggressive monetary tightening.
WTI crude‑oil futures fell sharply by more than 5%, dropping below the psychological level of $100 per barrel. The main driver of the decline was optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump about the final stage of negotiations with Iran, which could lead to a rapid end to the conflict and the lifting of the maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Additional stabilization signals came from satellite data showing three supertankers passing through the strait, indicating a potential easing of logistical restrictions.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 1.23%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined 0.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped 1.26%.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar fell to 0.71 USD, fully losing the gains of the previous session. The main disappointment for AUD buyers came from fresh Australian labor‑market data. Seasonally adjusted unemployment unexpectedly jumped to 4.5% in April, up from 4.3% in March and above analyst expectations – the highest level since November 2021. The reason was a sharp drop in employment: jobs fell by 18,600 (to 14.74 million), while the market expected an increase of 17,500. This first decline in employment in five months undermined investor confidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise the cash rate to 4.6% at the June meeting.

The New Zealand dollar is holding near 0.586 USD, balancing between strong domestic data and unpredictable rhetoric from the White House. A powerful domestic driver came from fresh Stats NZ data: New Zealand’s trade surplus in April 2026 surged to an all‑time record of 1.92 billion NZD (prediction: 980 million). Exports rose 12% to 8.6 billion, driven by strong dairy, beef, and aluminum sales to the US and EU, while imports increased only 3.4% (to 6.7 billion), indicating weak domestic demand. Markets now price in a 30% probability of a rate hike at the end of May and a 90% probability of tightening in July, as the prolonged fuel crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues to accelerate imported inflation.

At its May 2026 meeting, Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 5.25%, marking the first tightening since April 2024. The decision, accompanied by increases in deposit rates to 4.75% and lending rates to 6.0%, was driven by the need to support the national currency, which has fallen 2.2% since late April to 17,700 rupiah per dollar, and to curb imported‑inflation risks.

On Tuesday, US stock indices continued to decline amid the ongoing sell‑off in US Treasury bonds and rising investor concerns about inflation driven by the conflict in the Middle East.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) fell by 0.67%. The S&P 500 (US500) declined by 0.67%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.61%. Pressure on the market intensified due to rising bond yields, as investors fear that high energy prices may force the Federal Reserve to maintain tight monetary policy for longer.

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.38 per US dollar amid a decline in core inflation in Canada, which strengthened expectations that the Bank of Canada will continue to take a cautious approach and will not respond to rising energy prices with policy tightening. Despite headline inflation accelerating to 2.8% in April due to higher gasoline prices amid the Middle East conflict, the key core inflation indicators monitored by the regulator fell more than expected, reaching their lowest levels in the past five years. This reinforced the market’s view that inflationary pressure outside the energy sector remains limited.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 0.07%.

WTI oil prices fell to around 103 dollars per barrel, partially pulling back after the recent rally. Pressure on prices emerged after US President Trump stated that he had canceled a planned military strike on Iran following requests from Gulf states and amid signs of a possible return to negotiations. Previously, oil had been supported by more than a week of gains driven by stalled US-Iran talks and the effective restriction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a key route for global oil trade. An additional factor was a new US authorization allowing the sale of Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded onto tankers, which added expectations of increased short‑term supply to the market.

Palladium prices (XPD) stabilized near 1,400 dollars per ounce, pausing their decline after reaching a seven‑week low. The market was supported by easing pressure on the precious metals sector after signs of possible progress in negotiations between the US and Iran. This somewhat reduced concerns about further increases in energy prices and the risk of a prolonged period of high interest rates. At the same time, the fundamental situation in the palladium market remains relatively tight. Concerns about limited supply from key producers continue to support prices. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan expects that palladium prices will rise to 1,600 dollars per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.44%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed up by 0.26%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 1.17%.

On Wednesday, the offshore yuan strengthened slightly to around 6.81 per dollar, partially recovering after the previous session’s decline. The Chinese currency was supported by the decision of the People’s Bank of China to keep key lending rates unchanged: the one‑year LPR remained at 3.0%, and the five‑year LPR stayed at 3.5%. This marks the twelfth consecutive month without changes, reflecting the cautious approach of Chinese authorities amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

On Monday, the US stock indices closed mixed amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.32%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.07%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.45%. The main pressure on the market came from the technology sector, which was the worst performer of the day, while shares of energy, financial companies, and consumer‑staples producers rose thanks to high commodity prices and demand for safe‑haven assets.

By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) jumped by 1.49%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.44%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.75%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session up by 1.26%. Market sentiment improved amid new signals of possible diplomatic progress in the Middle East conflict. Iran reported that it had sent a response to the updated US proposal for ending the war.

According to preliminary data, Switzerland’s economy grew by 0.5% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the previous quarter, accelerating from 0.2% at the end of 2025. This was the strongest quarterly growth in the past year and indicates a steady recovery after a brief slowdown. Currency dynamics also played a role: during periods of heightened geopolitical tension, the franc traditionally strengthens as a safe‑haven asset, supporting demand for it.

WTI oil prices ended an extremely volatile session near 106 dollars per barrel, retracing most of the initial gains amid conflicting signals about a possible agreement between the US and Iran. Pressure on prices early in the session intensified after Iranian media reported that Washington had allegedly proposed a temporary easing of oil sanctions until a final peace agreement is reached. Later, prices turned upward again after Axios reported that Iran had sent an updated peace proposal, although the White House, according to media reports, considered it insufficient. Despite diplomatic signals, the market remains extremely tense, as the Strait of Hormuz is still restricted for shipping, and attacks on energy infrastructure continue to disrupt oil production and supply.

The US natural‑gas prices (XNG/USD) held near 3.02 dollars per MMBtu, remaining close to their highest levels in the past seven weeks amid expectations of rising demand and ongoing production cuts. The main support for the market comes from expectations of hot weather in the southern and eastern United States, where higher temperatures are expected to increase electricity consumption for air conditioning, and thus boost gas demand from power companies. Market attention was also drawn to reports that the first shipments of US LNG since February 2025 are expected to arrive in China in June, which may signal a gradual recovery in export demand.

In Asia on Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.97%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 0.89%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.11%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) dropped by 1.45%.

On Tuesday, the Australian dollar (AUD) fell to around 0.71 US dollars, losing part of the previous session’s gains after signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia about rising inflation risks. RBA Deputy Governor Sarah Hunter warned that the prolonged conflict in the Middle East and the continued rise in energy prices may lead to inflation expectations becoming anchored above the target level. In that case, the regulator may have to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than previously expected, even despite the risk of a more pronounced economic slowdown.