InvestMacro

The US stock markets on Monday showed confident growth, breaking a five‑day losing streak and recovering part of their positions after recent volatility. Investors expressed optimism amid signs of de‑escalation in geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as a reassessment of the prospects for the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.59%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.18%. The Technology‑heavy NASDAQ Index (US100) closed higher by 2.25%.

The leaders of growth were companies from the communication and high‑tech sectors, including Tesla, which demonstrated a significant rally, while the materials sector came under pressure despite continued activity in the energy segment. A notable event of the day was the inclusion of Alphabet in the Dow Jones Index, where it replaced telecommunications giant Verizon. Against this backdrop, Alphabet shares showed a noticeable increase.

European indices closed lower on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.21%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.20%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the trading session down by 0.23%. European indices have been showing negative dynamics for the second session in a row due to persistent uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Despite agreements between the US and Iran on a temporary halt to exchanges of strikes in the Strait of Hormuz area, investors remain cautious ahead of new inflation data and the upcoming European Central Bank forum in Sintra, where key speeches by the heads of the Fed and ECB may clarify the future outlook for monetary policy.

Oil prices on Monday corrected upward, rising above 70 dollars per barrel after falling to a four‑month low. Despite attempts to normalize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, tanker traffic volumes remain limited, as recent weekend attacks have significantly undermined market participants’ confidence in the safety of this strategic route. Diplomatic efforts aimed at de‑escalating the conflict remain in focus: the US and Iran agreed to suspend military operations ahead of peace talks in Doha scheduled for Tuesday.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.15%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.43%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.57%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher yesterday by 0.68%.

The Australian dollar updated a three‑month low, falling below 0.687 USD under pressure from the global strengthening of the US dollar. Despite the published RBA minutes, where the regulator confirmed its readiness for further rate hikes due to inflation risks in the Middle East, the market reacted skeptically. Lower energy prices led to a revision of the probability of policy tightening in Australia to 40%, and investors began pricing in a possible rate cut in mid‑2027.

The offshore yuan weakened to around 6.79 per dollar, ending a two‑month period of growth. The main pressure on the currency came from the strengthening of the US dollar, supported by expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Fed and demand for a “safe-haven” due to geopolitical tensions. The People’s Bank of China also contributed to this trend by setting daily fixings below market expectations, signaling the authorities’ readiness for gradual yuan depreciation.

China’s economic indicators showed moderate positive dynamics: the manufacturing PMI in June rose to 50.3 (compared to 50.0 in May), and the non‑manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2. Steady demand for high‑tech exports helped the economy adapt to logistical disruptions caused by the Middle Eastern conflict.

By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.08% (weekly +0.62%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 3.47% (weekly -1.95%). The technology‑heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 1.09% (weekly -4.62%). The global economic environment remains heavily influenced by US–Iran negotiations, with the recent increase in energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz having pushed commodity prices lower, easing concerns about inflation and further Federal Reserve tightening. However, new reports of US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz radically change market dynamics and threaten the fragile ceasefire, potentially restoring a high geopolitical risk premium across global markets.

This week, investor attention will be focused on US labor‑market data, including nonfarm payrolls, unemployment figures, and wage dynamics, as well as manufacturing activity and consumer confidence indicators. These releases will coincide with upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada officials at the ECB Forum.

European indices closed lower on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.29% (weekly -1.46%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) declined by 0.55% (weekly -0.58%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.45% (weekly +0.32%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.21% (weekly +1.39%). The key event for European markets this week will be the release of fresh inflation data for the eurozone and major regional economies, where a slight slowdown in headline inflation is expected due to cheaper energy, while core inflation remains persistently high. Parallel to this, investor attention is focused on the ECB Forum in Sintra, where leaders of major global central banks will discuss monetary policy prospects. Combined with unemployment statistics for the eurozone, Germany, Italy, and Spain, these discussions will help assess the economy’s resilience to current financial conditions.

On Friday, the Swiss franc (CHF) posted a local rebound against the US dollar, recovering after a recent decline driven by lower inflation expectations and weakening dollar momentum. Nevertheless, the currency remains under pressure due to geopolitical factors: potential de‑escalation in the Middle East could weaken the franc’s status as a safe‑haven asset, while the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) current monetary stance – maintaining a zero policy rate despite raising inflation expectations – adds further challenges for the currency.

On Monday, crude oil prices (WTI) showed moderate recovery, rising to around $70 per barrel after a recent drop to four‑month lows triggered by escalating US–Iran tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a series of reciprocal strikes affecting commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf, both sides expressed readiness to pause active hostilities ahead of peace talks scheduled for this week in Doha. Although shipping activity temporarily increased amid hopes for compliance with ceasefire terms, many vessels remain blocked in the region, continuing to affect the stability of energy supplies and price dynamics.

Platinum prices (XPT) fell to $1,600 per ounce, approaching yearly lows amid a broad decline in precious metals triggered by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The resurgence of clashes near the Strait of Hormuz erased recent progress in negotiations, causing a sharp spike in oil prices and intensifying inflation concerns. Meanwhile, the persistent strength of the US dollar further limited demand for the metal among holders of other currencies.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) dropped by 4.15% (weekly -2.40%), China’s FTSE China A50 fell by 3.50% (weekly -4.69%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.76% (weekly -4.79%), while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed slightly higher at 0.18% (weekly -0.43%). Investor focus in the Asia‑Pacific region is directed toward China’s business activity indicators, where both manufacturing and services sectors are hovering near stagnation, as well as Japan’s Tankan survey, reflecting cautious business sentiment in Q2. Japan is expected to show positive dynamics in retail sales and industrial production amid extremely low unemployment, while Australia’s market will concentrate on central bank meeting minutes and updated trade data pointing to a widening surplus. Other regional economies also face a busy agenda: India is preparing to release its budget and industrial production reports, while South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines will publish key statistics on trade, inflation, and GDP.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) began the week with a large liquidity injection, providing 157.5 billion yuan through seven‑day reverse repo operations while keeping the key rate at its historic low of 1.4%, confirming the regulator’s commitment to supporting economic growth through accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, to more flexibly manage short‑term liquidity and stabilize interbank conditions, the PBoC deployed a new tool – an overnight reverse repo – injecting an additional 300 billion yuan into the system.

The Australian dollar (AUD) continues to lose ground, falling below the psychological level of 0.690 USD amid geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which undermines investor appetite for risk assets. Despite the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran and renewed negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz, energy prices remain elevated, intensifying concerns about global inflation.

On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed mixed as caution persisted in the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.35%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.10%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.43%. Investors attempted to assess whether real demand for AI infrastructure can justify the enormous capital expenditures of major IT giants. Traditional sectors of the economy, by contrast, received notable support. Easing inflation concerns due to the prospect of a rapid resumption of energy exports from the Middle East pushed US Treasury yields lower. As a result, the Dow Jones outperformed. The Index was also supported by expectations of a major reshuffling: on Monday, June 29, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) will officially replace Verizon in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, significantly increasing the weight of the technology and AI sectors in this historic benchmark.

The Canadian dollar (USD/CAD) posted a sharp decline, falling to a yearly low of 1.42 per US dollar. The main driver of the “loonie’s” weakness was the powerful global rally of the US dollar. Traders are aggressively pricing in a hawkish scenario in the United States after several FOMC members under Kevin Warsh signaled the need for more than one rate hike before the end of 2026. Unlike the Fed’s firm stance, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is taking a far more cautious and patient approach, depriving the national currency of monetary support.

At the end of June, the Mexican peso fell to 17.6 per US dollar, hitting its lowest level since early April. The main driver of the peso’s weakness was the sharp global strengthening of the US dollar against both developed and emerging‑market currencies. Meanwhile, domestic Mexican factors removed fundamental support for the peso. Fresh economic data showed that headline inflation in Mexico unexpectedly slowed to a ten‑month low of 3.55% in the first half of June, while core inflation also fell more than expected. This cooling of price growth, combined with a weakening national economy (GDP contracted by 0.6% in Q1), strengthened the case for further monetary easing by the Bank of Mexico, which has already cut its policy rate to 6.50%.

European indices traded without a unified direction yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose by 0.54%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.45%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 0.31%.

On Wednesday, silver prices (XAG/USD) plunged by roughly 5%, falling to $59 per ounce and hitting their lowest level since December of last year amid a broad strengthening of the US dollar. With inflation concerns easing and oil prices falling below $70, silver lost its key growth drivers. However, strong industrial demand from green energy and AI‑related infrastructure may prevent the metal from falling below the critical support zone of $55-56.

The US crude oil (WTI) prices fell below the psychological $70 per barrel mark during trading (with lows at $69.63), hitting their lowest levels since late February – the beginning of the conflict’s hot phase. The sharp decline (40% from wartime peaks) is driven by the rapid disappearance of the geopolitical risk premium. After the interim agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners began confidently restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz with transponders on, having received official safety guarantees from the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO). According to the IEA, exports from the UAE have already recovered to 85% of pre‑crisis levels, while total oil shipments from the Persian Gulf recently reached around 60 million barrels.

On Wednesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.88%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 0.39%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.33%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed higher by 0.24%. The Hang Seng Index fell to 23,106, retracing the previous session’s gains and hitting its lowest level since June 2025. Investors chose to lock in profits and act cautiously ahead of Hong Kong’s fresh trade balance data, pushing the benchmark to two‑year lows. However, the decline was partially offset by a strong rally in the Asian tech sector.

On Thursday, the Australian dollar (AUD) broke key support and fell below 0.690 USD, settling near a three‑month low amid a powerful global rally of the US dollar. This aggressive decline in the “aussie” occurred despite strong domestic labor‑market data: in May, Australia created 40,300 new jobs after April’s drop of 40,600, while the unemployment rate predictably fell to 4.4%. Nevertheless, the positive employment report only intensified investor concerns about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next steps, as a strong labor market combined with high core inflation gives the regulator room to continue its tightening cycle.

On Tuesday, the US stock indices closed sharply lower due to a large‑scale sell‑off in the technology sector. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.44%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.44%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed down by 3.29% amid growing investor skepticism regarding the profitability of massive investments by major hyperscale companies into artificial intelligence infrastructure. An additional trigger for the decline in chipmakers was the decision by South Korea’s SK Hynix to partially redirect capacity from advanced AI‑chip production toward standard DRAM memory, signaling a potential cooling of demand. Against this backdrop, shares of AI‑race leaders posted sharp losses: Nvidia dropped 4.2%, Broadcom 3.1%, AMD 5.8%, Qualcomm 8%, while Micron and Sandisk plunged 13.2% and 11.2%, respectively. The market capitalization of Tesla and Oracle also fell by 5.8%.

Pressure on the stock market was further intensified by the bond market, where US Treasury yields remained at multi‑month highs, depriving traditional sectors of room for recovery. This occurred despite the continued decline in energy prices, as investors continue to price in the Fed’s hawkish dot‑plot projections.
In June 2026, the preliminary US Services PMI (S&P Global US Services PMI) showed moderate improvement, rising to 51.3 from May’s 50.7. Although the figure slightly exceeded market expectations (51.0) and marked the fastest expansion in the sector since February, the detailed report indicates persistent structural problems. The short‑term boost in business activity was largely driven by the FIFA World Cup, while underlying consumer and investment demand remained subdued due to high prices and the Fed’s tight interest‑rate policy.

European indices mostly declined yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.98%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.71%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.34%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session lower by 0.09%.

Global crude oil prices hit a three‑month low: US WTI fell to $73.1 per barrel (with intraday lows at $72.48), while European benchmark Brent corrected toward $77. The main driver of the decline was the 60‑day general sanctions waiver issued by the US Treasury. This step legally opened access for global refineries and buyers to Iranian crude and petroleum products, effectively removing the geopolitical risk premium and pushing prices down 40% from the conflict‑driven peak. The further trajectory of prices will depend directly on institutional factors. Given the Fed’s tight monetary stance under Kevin Warsh and weak global energy demand, full stabilization is possible only after the final signing of the agreement in Geneva, de‑escalation in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, and complete de‑mining of the Strait of Hormuz, which has now restored shipping to 85% of pre‑crisis levels.

On Tuesday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 3.55%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed down by 2.74%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) declined by 1.82%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower by 0.33%.

The Australian dollar stabilized around 0.691, holding near its lowest levels in eleven weeks. The newly released macroeconomic inflation report for May left investors with mixed impressions. On one hand, the annual headline inflation rate slowed more than expected – from 4.2% to 4.0% – hitting a three‑month low thanks to a significant drop in retail gasoline prices. On the other hand, core price pressure proved extremely persistent: the volatility‑adjusted Trimmed Mean CPI – the indicator used by the regulator – rose by 0.4% for the month and pushed annual core inflation higher, from 3.4% to 3.6%.

On Monday, the US stock indices closed mixed amid a balance between sell‑offs in the technology sector and geopolitical optimism. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.29%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.37%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.19%. The tech sector declined due to investor concerns over rising capital expenditures on artificial intelligence, which led to a drop in Alphabet shares by 5.2%, Palantir by 7%, Amazon by 4.4%, and Meta by 2.7%. Additional pressure on the market came from a 16.4% low plunge in SpaceX shares after the announcement of a debut $20 billion bond issuance, although the stock price still remains 40% above its recent June IPO level.

In May 2026, Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.2% from April’s 2.8%, exceeding the analysts’ consensus expect of 3.0% and reaching its highest level since December 2023. The main driver of price growth was the energy sector: amid the Middle East conflict and the suspension of oil exports, gasoline prices surged by 33.2% year‑over‑year, while overall energy costs rose by 9.0%. Despite the jump in the headline figure, core inflationary pressure remains fully under the control of the Bank of Canada. The regulator’s key indicators – CPI‑trim and CPI‑median – remained stable at their target levels of 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively.

European indices mostly rose yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) increased by 0.62%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.01%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session higher by 0.72%. A powerful trigger for investor optimism was Iran’s statement about significant progress in negotiations with the United States and the signing of a memorandum of understanding on a permanent peace agreement, which sharply reduced the risk of oil supply disruptions and eased global inflation concerns. The banking sector became the locomotive of the market rally: shares of Santander, BBVA, and Nordea rose by about 2% due to falling Eurozone sovereign bond yields, which improved lending margin prospects. The technology sector saw another investment boom, with shares of chipmaker Infineon jumping 5%, supporting the broader trend of hyperscale companies attracting capital for artificial intelligence infrastructure.

On Monday, global crude oil prices (WTI) continued to fall, hitting their lowest level since early March – US WTI dropped below $74 per barrel. The main driver of the sell‑off was news that the US and Iran had agreed on a “roadmap” to reach a peace agreement within 60 days, supported by the US Treasury’s decision to temporarily allow the extraction, supply, and sale of Iranian oil. Expectations of a rapid increase in supply are confirmed by real‑time data: shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have risen noticeably, and Iran has increased visible exports through this route to the highest level since the start of the conflict, while offering discounts on cargoes for China.

The US natural gas price (XNG) corrected downward to $3.23 per MMBtu after a local rally to two‑week highs. The main factor behind the decline was the continued comfortable surplus in the domestic market, supported by the fact that commercial gas inventories in underground storage remain 5.8% above the long‑term seasonal norm.

On Monday, palladium prices (XPD) held near $1,270 per ounce, trading close to their lowest levels since late September amid a decline in geopolitical risk premiums. Progress in US-Iran negotiations and preparations to lift the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz significantly eased investor fears about supply disruptions. An additional negative factor for palladium is the deterioration of its fundamental market conditions. After 14 years of persistent deficits, analysts now expect the platinum‑group metals market to shift into surplus in 2026 due to declining investment demand and reduced ETF activity. The situation is further aggravated by long‑term structural changes in China’s automotive sector, where the rapid growth of electric vehicle adoption is undermining palladium consumption, traditionally used in catalytic converters for internal combustion engines.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.55%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 2.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed lower by 0.14%.

The Australian dollar fell below the psychological level of 0.70, hitting an eleven‑week low. The main factor behind the weakening of the “Aussie” was the powerful global rally of the US dollar, fueled by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and expectations of further rate hikes in the United States. Investors have taken a wait‑and‑see approach ahead of the release of critically important national macroeconomic data that will determine the next steps of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The May report is expected to show an acceleration in headline inflation to 4.4% (from 4.2%) and core inflation to 3.5% (from 3.4%), significantly exceeding the regulator’s 2-3% target range. Traders are also focused on labor market data: the consensus prediction expects a net job gain of 25,000 and a decline in unemployment to 4.4% after last month’s multi‑year high of 4.5%. Given that the RBA already raised the rate to 4.35% at its May meeting, strong macro data this week may force the regulator to proceed with new rounds of rate hikes in 2026, potentially triggering a sharp reversal and recovery in the AUD exchange rate.