InvestMacro

The US stock indices closed with a sharp surge amid the official signing of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. The diplomatic breakthrough and the imminent unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices down by 5%, instantly easing global business inflation concerns. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.92%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.65%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 3.06%.

The drop in energy prices triggered a powerful inflow of capital into sectors directly dependent on fuel costs. The transport sector and the travel industry became the growth leaders: United Airlines shares rose by 3.9%, Norwegian Cruise Line gained 3.7%, and Carnival Corp. strengthened by 3.2%. Elon Musk’s space giant continues to rewrite records after its Friday debut. The company’s shares jumped another 15%, consolidating around 185 dollars per share and pushing SpaceX’s market capitalization to an unprecedented 2.3 trillion dollars. The main outsider of the day was the media group Fox Corp., whose shares collapsed by 17%. Investors reacted extremely negatively to the official announcement of the acquisition of the streaming platform Roku for 22 billion dollars. The market considered the deal price significantly overvalued.

European indices closed mixed on Monday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.40%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 1.43%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session lower by 0.39%.

The main beneficiary of the Middle East de-escalation was Europe’s real sector. Since the European region critically depends on hydrocarbon imports, the collapse in oil prices (which fell below 80 dollars per barrel on Monday) removed market fears of a prolonged energy crisis. The strongest upward dynamics were demonstrated by shares of automotive manufacturers and airlines, whose costs are directly tied to fuel prices. Investors are encouraged by the prospect of a full unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which will begin immediately after the memorandum is signed in Switzerland this Friday. Under the terms of the agreement, the United States will lift the naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran will be obliged to fully clear the strait’s waters of deployed naval mines.

The Swiss franc (CHF) showed a confident rebound, strengthening to 0.79 francs per US dollar and recovering from a two‑month low. The weakening of the US currency was caused by overall market optimism amid news of the imminent end of the Middle East crisis. The decline in global oil prices to a two‑month low (around 80 dollars per barrel) significantly simplified the task for the Swiss National Bank (SNB) ahead of its upcoming meeting. Domestic economic indicators also confirm the disinflationary trend – in May the Index surprised by falling 0.4% month‑over‑month. The decline in domestic producer prices combined with the sharp collapse in commodity prices virtually guarantees that the SNB will keep its key interest rate unchanged at its June 18 meeting.

Large institutional investors continue to reduce their presence in metals. Last Friday, long positions in gold ETFs fell to a 6.5‑month low, showing a deep pullback from the 3.5‑year high recorded at the peak of the Middle East crisis on February 27. A similar picture is seen in silver ETFs – holdings there fell to a 10.5‑month low (the peak was reached on December 23).

On Tuesday, crude oil prices (WTI) fell below 81 dollars per barrel, extending the decline after nearly a 5% drop in the previous session. Investors are cautious as they await details of the proposed peace agreement between the US and Iran, which is expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Although Donald Trump stated that the deal will restore the free flow of oil from the Persian Gulf, the absence of an official memorandum text is forcing shipping companies to delay vessel departures until full clarity emerges.

On Monday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 4.99%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.50%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up by 1.25%.

The Australian dollar fell to a two‑month low around 0.705, reacting sharply to the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. The RBA decided to hit the brakes, unanimously keeping the base interest rate at 4.35%. This step followed an aggressive series of three consecutive hikes in February, March, and May, which the regulator needed to combat the second wave of inflation triggered by the spring blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Most economists agree that the RBA will remain at the current plateau of 4.35% at least until the end of winter (the next meeting is scheduled for August 11).

On Friday, US stock indices closed in the green zone amid two powerful drivers: the historic market debut of SpaceX and persistent geopolitical optimism. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.70% (weekly result +0.40%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 0.50% (weekly result -0.12%). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed higher by 0.64% (weekly result +0.52%).

The main event of the day was the triumphant debut of SpaceX on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker SPCX. With an IPO price of 135 dollars per share, trading opened at 150 dollars. During the day, the stock surged by almost 30%, and closed at 161.11 dollars (a gain of 19.3%). This record IPO worth 75 billion dollars increased Elon Musk’s company’s capitalization to 2 trillion dollars. During the trading session, markets experienced short-term volatility due to a tough statement by Donald Trump, who warned Iran against disrupting the negotiations. However, markets quickly recovered after the publication of details of the draft peace agreement.

This week, investors’ attention will be focused on the first meeting of the US Federal Reserve under the chairmanship of Kevin Warsh. According to the general consensus of analysts, the American regulator will keep interest rates in the current range of 3.5-3.75%. The main intrigue lies in the rhetoric: whether officials will signal readiness to resume rate hikes at the end of 2026 to curb inflation, which was fueled by the spring surge in oil prices due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In parallel, the market will assess a block of important US macroeconomic data for May.

Retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%, repeating the pace of the previous month, which, under high inflation, indicates the preservation of nominal spending at the expense of reduced savings. In contrast, industrial production is prediction to slow sharply – growth will amount to only 0.2% after a strong April jump of 0.7%. The real estate sector will also show cooling: analysts expect a decline in both housing starts and building permits amid high costs.

European indices closed higher on Friday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.76% (weekly result +0.77%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 1.83% (weekly result +2.67%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 2.59% (weekly result +3.05%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed higher by 1.63% (weekly result +0.99%). In Europe, the focus of global financial markets this week is on the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Norway, and Sweden. According to the consensus outlook, the Bank of England will keep the base interest rate at 3.75%, although investors hope to receive hints from the Committee regarding the overall trajectory for the rest of the year. The central banks of Sweden (Riksbank), Switzerland (SNB), and Norway (Norges Bank) are expected to keep their current interest rates unchanged, opting for a wait‑and‑see approach. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, Germany is expected to show a moderate improvement in the ZEW economic sentiment Index for June. This will mark the second month of recovery after a deep April decline to a three‑year low, although the indicator will likely remain in negative territory.

Crude oil prices collapsed by more than 5%, plunging to 80 dollars per barrel and hitting a two‑month low. The massive sell‑off was triggered by the official announcement of the long‑awaited peace agreement between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump confirmed that the agreement provides for the immediate lifting of the American naval blockade of Iranian ports. This will allow safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully restored by the end of the current week. In addition to reopening the strait, the framework agreement obliges Tehran to completely dismantle its nuclear program. In return, Iran receives a package of large‑scale economic incentives and legalization of its oil exports. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi officially confirmed that a compromise had been reached.

On Friday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 2.81% (weekly result +0.11%), China’s FTSE China A50 closed higher by 1.50% (weekly result +1.64%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.93% (weekly result +0.55%), and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed up 1.98% (weekly result +1.14%). This week, the Asia‑Pacific region expects a dense flow of economic news.

Japan: The key event will be the Bank of Japan meeting (June 15-16). Against the backdrop of persistent inflation and a weak yen, the regulator is expected to raise the base rate by 25 basis points – to 1.0%. If confirmed, the rate will return to its highest level since 1995. Traders will also assess May data on inflation, trade, and machinery orders.

China: Investors will analyze a comprehensive block of May macroeconomic data: retail sales, industrial production (analysts expectation an acceleration to 4.6% due to IT exports), unemployment rate, fixed‑asset investment, and housing prices.

Australia: The Reserve Bank will likely pause and keep the refinancing rate at 4.35% after the May quarter‑point hike.

Other countries: Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia will publish trade balances, New Zealand will report Q1 GDP, and the central banks of Indonesia, Taiwan, and the Philippines will announce rate decisions.

The US stock indices closed with a powerful surge, fully offsetting the losses of the previous session and recording one of the best days of the year. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 1.86%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.75%. The Tech‑heavy NASDAQ (US100) closed up by 3.29%. The main driver of the explosive rally on Wall Street was the unexpected easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. During the day, US President Donald Trump shifted from warlike rhetoric to a conciliatory tone: after morning threats to deliver “very tough strikes tonight” and take control of Iran’s oil infrastructure (including Kharg Island), by the evening he announced on the social network Truth Social that the planned bombings were canceled. Trump stated that during high‑level negotiations a “big agreement” to end the war had been reached, and that it had been fundamentally approved by Iran, Israel, and key Arab allies.

An additional powerful boost to the market came from the technology sector, where preparations for the historic IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, scheduled for Friday, June 12 (the expected company valuation is $1.75-1.77 trillion), were in full swing.

On the macroeconomic front, the situation remained mixed. Fresh data on the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May indicated an acceleration in wholesale price growth, confirming the persistence of high inflation due to the recent commodity shock. This data strengthened market expectations that the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) will be forced to raise interest rates at least one more time before the end of 2026 (traders consider December the most likely moment).
European indices closed in the green yesterday. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.06%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up by 0.48%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.81%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session higher by 0.48%. The central bank of Denmark (Danmarks Nationalbank) raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected – to 1.85%. The current account rate, deposit certificates, and discount rate were fixed at this level, while the lending rate increased to 2.00%. The Danish regulator took this step immediately after a similar decision by the European Central Bank earlier the same day. The moves by Frankfurt and Copenhagen were driven by the need to combat inflation risks caused by the new escalation of the Middle East conflict and shocks in the energy market.

Platinum prices (XPT) showed a powerful rebound, soaring more than 4% and breaking above $1,730 per troy ounce. This sharp rise allowed the market to move away from the six‑month low recorded during the recent sell‑off.

Platinum’s dynamics fully matched the broad rally in the precious metals sector triggered by the large‑scale de‑escalation of geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, caution persists in the market. Experts emphasize that even in the event of diplomatic success, it will take considerable time to fully restore supply chains and oil export volumes. At the same time, platinum continues to be supported by a severe physical deficit in the long term. According to WPIC’s outlook, in 2026 the market will face a shortage of the metal for the fourth consecutive year.

Oil WTI prices stabilized around $90 per barrel, balancing between threats and diplomacy. On one hand, Donald Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s terminal on Kharg Island, although he ruled out a full‑scale war. On the other hand, the UAE and Iran held rare direct talks, restoring hope for de‑escalation. However, the decline in prices is limited by severe depletion of global inventories: reserves in the US continue to fall sharply, and fuel stocks in Singapore have plunged to their lowest level since 2013, confirming shortages at key hubs.
The US natural gas prices (XNG) fell more than 3% – below $3.10 per MMBtu, hitting a two‑week low. The trigger was the EIA report: underground storage inventories rose by 108 billion cubic feet for the week, exceeding the prediction of 101 billion.

On Thursday, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.06%, China’s FTSE China A50 closed lower by 0.49%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 0.65%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) declined by 0.23%. On Friday, the Chinese stock market showed a confident recovery. The positive dynamics in China followed the general rally across Asian markets. The main driver of optimism was Donald Trump’s statement that a peace agreement on the Middle East could be signed as early as this weekend. Investors expect that de‑escalation will allow safe commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to be restored in the shortest possible time. Despite Friday’s rebound, both Chinese indices recorded weekly declines due to high volatility.