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Archive for Financial News – Page 308

Europe’s energy crisis intensifies again. Britain chooses a new prime minister

The US stock indices ended the week lower on Friday, as early gains amid a report on Nonfarm Payrolls were overshadowed by worries about the energy crisis in Europe. The US economy added 315,000 jobs in August, still a solid indicator showing that the economy remains resilient despite rising interest rates, high inflation, and sluggish consumer spending. Friday’s government report also showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a low of 3.5%. Analysts believe the decline in US job gains in August may help the Fed’s fight against inflation. At the close of trading on Friday the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.07% (-2.70% for the week) and the S& P 500 (US500) lost 1.07% (-2.73% for the week). The Technology Sector Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.31% (-1.06% for the week).

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 3.33% (+1.65% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) jumped by 2.21% (-0.51% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.62% (-0.48% for the week) and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed the day up 1.86% (-2.65% for the week).

The UK lagged behind India to become the world’s sixth-largest economy, dealing another blow to the government in London, which has been struggling with a steep drop in the cost of living. Britain’s fall in the international rankings is not a pleasant backdrop for the new prime minister. British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said Sunday that she would take immediate action in her first week in office to address rising energy bills and increased energy supplies if appointed prime minister. Truss said she would bravely fight the falling economy, repeating her promise to stimulate growth to fix a long list of problems. The Sunday Times newspaper, citing insiders at the Treasury Department, said the cost of Truss’ plan would easily exceed 100 billion pounds ($115 billion), most of which would be added to government borrowing. The winner with the most Conservative votes will be announced on Monday, and the next day the new prime minister will meet with Queen Elizabeth and ask her to form a government.

Oil prices declined over the summer amid uncertainty about demand prospects due to China’s COVID-19 restraint and as central banks around the world raised interest rates to combat rising inflation, affecting the global economic outlook. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, are scheduled to meet Monday. Energy traders will be paying close attention to the event, especially after Saudi Arabia raised the possibility of production cuts. OPEC+ last week revised its market balances for this year and now sees demand lagging supply by 400,000 BPD versus the 900,000 BPD previously projected. The producer group expects a market deficit of 300,000 BPD in the baseline scenario for 2023.

This week, the escalating energy dispute between Russia and the West will draw investors’ attention. Moscow has closed its main gas pipeline to Germany for an indefinite period. The closure of the Nord Stream pipeline, which Russia says will last as long as it takes to make repairs, has exacerbated fears of a winter gas shortage that could lead to a recession in major economies and lead to energy rationing. Europe accused Russia of using energy as a weapon in what Moscow called an “economic war” with the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moscow blamed Western sanctions and technical problems for supply disruptions.

Asian markets traded lower last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.81% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 2.55% for the week, and Australia’s S& P/ASX 200 (AU200) closed down by 3.88% for the week.

In the commodities market, orange juice futures showed the largest rise in price by the end of the week (+5.44%). Futures on gasoline (-13.73%), cotton (-12.3%), copper (-8.01%), Brent oil (-7.63%), WTI oil (-6.24%), palladium (-4.71%), lumber (-4.65%), silver (-4.46%), coffee (-4.14%), natural gas (-3.96%), and soybeans (-2.84%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,924.26 −42.59 (−1.07%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,318.44 −337.98 (−1.07%)

DAX (DE40) 13,050.27 +420.0 (+3.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,281.19 +132.69 (+1.86%)

USD Index 109.61 -0.08 (-0.07%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Service PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Service PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
– Italian Service PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
– French Service PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
– German Service PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Service PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Service PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– OPEC+ Meeting (m/m) at 13:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

03 Sep

Gold, Platinum and Copper Speculators lead Weekly Precious Metals Bets lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold, Platinum and Copper lead the Weekly Speculator Changes Lower

The COT precious metals speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the way for the precious metals markets this week was Palladium with a gain of 665 contracts.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-8,113 contracts) with Platinum (-4,802 contracts), Copper (-4,265 contracts) and Silver (-3,771 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,470,207	0	229,189	5	-256,248	95	27,059	48
Gold	459,165	2	117,734	10	-129,679	92	11,945	2
Silver	138,714	6	-8,271	0	265	100	8,006	8
Copper	158,390	0	-23,255	19	24,985	83	-1,730	15
Palladium	5,875	0	-1,129	16	1,323	82	-194	33
Platinum	70,747	40	-5,378	1	646	99	4,732	28
Natural Gas	978,881	4	-128,765	40	92,463	60	36,302	66
Brent	180,952	24	-40,013	44	36,585	54	3,428	56
Heating Oil	283,427	29	25,196	79	-43,761	25	18,565	63
Soybeans	605,924	7	83,562	40	-52,791	68	-30,771	19
Corn	1,267,735	0	283,397	66	-225,759	40	-57,638	10
Coffee	193,889	7	48,687	81	-50,983	23	2,296	21
Sugar	752,642	9	62,551	49	-72,593	54	10,042	20
Wheat	288,545	0	-11,499	4	14,914	81	-3,415	93

All Metals Strength Scores are in Bearish Extreme Levels

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets continue to have very weak speculator sentiment. All markets currently have bearish extreme strength scores under 20 percent. Copper (19.4 percent) is the highest and is followed by Palladium (16.5 percent) and Gold (9.6 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) is at the absolute bottom of its 3-Year range followed by Platinum (0.7 percent) which is not far away.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.7 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (4.4 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.7 percent)
Platinum (0.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (16.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.7 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Palladium (14.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (8.7 percent) and Copper (0.5 percent) round out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-11.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next market with a lower trend score was Platinum (-1.5 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.0 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.9 percent)
Copper (0.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (7.3 percent)
Palladium (14.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 117,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.2	27.6	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	55.8	5.9
– Net Position:	117,734	-129,679	11,945
– Gross Longs:	235,314	126,535	38,918
– Gross Shorts:	117,580	256,214	26,973
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	92.3	1.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-6.3	-14.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,771 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,500 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	42.2	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	42.0	10.6
– Net Position:	-8,271	265	8,006
– Gross Longs:	49,468	58,592	22,715
– Gross Shorts:	57,739	58,327	14,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	7.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	8.4	5.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	51.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	36.0	9.5
– Net Position:	-23,255	24,985	-1,730
– Gross Longs:	46,105	82,023	13,256
– Gross Shorts:	69,360	57,038	14,986
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.4	82.9	15.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	0.9	-10.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -576 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	38.9	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.5	38.0	5.4
– Net Position:	-5,378	646	4,732
– Gross Longs:	29,635	27,501	8,556
– Gross Shorts:	35,013	26,855	3,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.2	28.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	1.2	2.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.2	59.1	15.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	36.6	19.2
– Net Position:	-1,129	1,323	-194
– Gross Longs:	1,424	3,475	932
– Gross Shorts:	2,553	2,152	1,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	82.2	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-16.6	20.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

03 Sep

5-Year, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Weekly Speculator Bets Lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th (COT Week 35) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

5-Year, 10-Year & 2-Year Bonds lead Weekly Speculator Changes Lower

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets were the Eurodollar (21,409 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (20,439 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year (7,103 contracts) also having a positive week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the 5-Year Bond (-61,931 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-58,934 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (-40,457 contracts), the Fed Funds (-17,884 contracts) and the Long US Bond (-17,703 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,583,494	15	-2,857,402	1	3,053,630	96	-196,228	61
FedFunds	1,861,895	69	84,766	50	-78,246	50	-6,520	43
2-Year	1,966,512	8	-281,600	25	348,412	96	-66,812	21
Long T-Bond	1,233,302	50	-68,834	62	40,789	25	28,045	75
10-Year	3,559,445	34	-440,103	6	558,958	88	-118,855	52
5-Year	4,037,085	53	-565,456	0	694,381	98	-128,925	46

US Treasury Bond & Fed Funds Futures lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) continues to lead the bonds markets although it is cooling off from past months and from last week’s score of 67.9 percent. The Fed Funds (50.1 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores and the only other one above the 3-Year midpoint of 50 percent.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the Eurodollar (0.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (5.5 percent) come in as the lowest strength scores currently. All three of these markets are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent) and are near the bottoms of their 3-Year ranges.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (50.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (25.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (33.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (24.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (22.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (62.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (67.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (40.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.7 percent)
Eurodollar (0.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.1 percent)

10-Year, 5-Year & 2-Year lead Strength Trends sharply lower

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds and is the only positive score in the latest data.

The 10-Year Bond (-50.4 percent), the 5-Year Bond (-46.5 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (-44.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores. These three market trends are all sharply lower as the speculator sentiment has become much weaker.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (2.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-44.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-35.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-46.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-32.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-50.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-41.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-8.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-9.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-19.6 percent)
Eurodollar (-3.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (-2.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,857,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,878,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	69.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	37.1	7.7
– Net Position:	-2,857,402	3,053,630	-196,228
– Gross Longs:	556,379	6,613,120	541,288
– Gross Shorts:	3,413,781	3,559,490	737,516
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	95.6	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	2.1	21.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 84,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	71.3	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	75.5	2.3
– Net Position:	84,766	-78,246	-6,520
– Gross Longs:	293,531	1,328,269	36,739
– Gross Shorts:	208,765	1,406,515	43,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	50.4	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	3.3	5.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -281,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -40,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -241,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	83.0	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	65.2	10.8
– Net Position:	-281,600	348,412	-66,812
– Gross Longs:	108,397	1,631,374	146,211
– Gross Shorts:	389,997	1,282,962	213,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	96.0	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.1	45.2	5.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -565,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -61,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -503,525 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	84.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	66.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-565,456	694,381	-128,925
– Gross Longs:	227,425	3,395,892	312,291
– Gross Shorts:	792,881	2,701,511	441,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.9	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-46.5	35.7	3.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -440,103 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -58,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -381,169 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	79.5	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	63.8	12.7
– Net Position:	-440,103	558,958	-118,855
– Gross Longs:	241,872	2,829,749	334,948
– Gross Shorts:	681,975	2,270,791	453,803
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	88.3	51.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.4	45.9	-13.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,986 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,103 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	80.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	70.5	18.2
– Net Position:	-17,986	124,783	-106,797
– Gross Longs:	66,830	1,039,205	129,753
– Gross Shorts:	84,816	914,422	236,550
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.1	72.3	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.6	-6.3	4.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -68,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.4	73.3	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	70.0	11.8
– Net Position:	-68,834	40,789	28,045
– Gross Longs:	78,532	903,487	173,323
– Gross Shorts:	147,366	862,698	145,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	25.2	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	6.3	7.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -355,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -376,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	81.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.3	58.4	8.5
– Net Position:	-355,794	323,164	32,630
– Gross Longs:	77,899	1,132,704	150,042
– Gross Shorts:	433,693	809,540	117,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	73.1	51.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	7.6	-3.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bonds CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing

03 Sep

Corn, Coffee and Cocoa lead the COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets higher this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th (COT Week 35) and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Corn, Coffee and Cocoa lead the Weekly Speculator Changes Higher

COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (20,154 contracts) and Coffee (10,054 contracts) with Cocoa (9,461 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,381 contracts), Sugar (4,464 contracts) and Cotton (282 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Lean Hogs (-8,204 contracts) with Soybeans (-4,274 contracts), Wheat (-3,243 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,346 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-1,365 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,470,207	0	229,189	5	-256,248	95	27,059	48
Gold	459,165	2	117,734	10	-129,679	92	11,945	2
Silver	138,714	6	-8,271	0	265	100	8,006	8
Copper	158,390	0	-23,255	19	24,985	83	-1,730	15
Palladium	5,875	0	-1,129	16	1,323	82	-194	33
Platinum	70,747	40	-5,378	1	646	99	4,732	28
Natural Gas	978,881	4	-128,765	40	92,463	60	36,302	66
Brent	180,952	24	-40,013	44	36,585	54	3,428	56
Heating Oil	283,427	29	25,196	79	-43,761	25	18,565	63
Soybeans	605,924	7	83,562	40	-52,791	68	-30,771	19
Corn	1,267,735	0	283,397	66	-225,759	40	-57,638	10
Coffee	193,889	7	48,687	81	-50,983	23	2,296	21
Sugar	752,642	9	62,551	49	-72,593	54	10,042	20
Wheat	288,545	0	-11,499	4	14,914	81	-3,415	93

Soybean Meal and Coffee leads this week’s Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92.2 percent) and Coffee (80.9 percent) lead the soft commodity markets and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Corn (66.2 percent) comes in as the next highest soft commodity markets market in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (4.1 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme state (below 20 percent). Cocoa (25.8 percent) comes in as the next lowest followed by Soybeans (39.6 percent) and Soybean Oil (40.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (63.7 percent)
Sugar (49.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (48.6 percent)
Coffee (80.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (34.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.9 percent)
Live Cattle (54.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (53.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (62.7 percent)
Cotton (52.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (52.5 percent)
Cocoa (25.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (16.5 percent)
Wheat (4.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (8.3 percent)

Live Cattle leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (47.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Soybean Oil (18.3 percent), Coffee (17.9 percent) and Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-23.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were Sugar (-13.3 percent) followed by Soybeans (-5.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.1 percent)
Sugar (-13.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-9.8 percent)
Coffee (17.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.7 percent)
Soybeans (-5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-8.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (11.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (9.6 percent)
Live Cattle (47.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (50.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (28.7 percent)
Cotton (9.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.0 percent)
Cocoa (8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.0 percent)
Wheat (-23.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 283,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 263,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	47.0	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	64.8	13.6
– Net Position:	283,397	-225,759	-57,638
– Gross Longs:	402,312	595,440	115,050
– Gross Shorts:	118,915	821,199	172,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.2	39.7	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.4	-8.6	-7.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 62,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	53.5	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	63.1	7.5
– Net Position:	62,551	-72,593	10,042
– Gross Longs:	175,450	402,664	66,576
– Gross Shorts:	112,899	475,257	56,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.5	54.4	20.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	13.1	-5.7

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 48,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	45.0	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	71.3	3.7
– Net Position:	48,687	-50,983	2,296
– Gross Longs:	61,416	87,194	9,555
– Gross Shorts:	12,729	138,177	7,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.9	23.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-20.8	20.6

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 83,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,836 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	55.3	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	64.0	11.3
– Net Position:	83,562	-52,791	-30,771
– Gross Longs:	155,472	335,048	37,513
– Gross Shorts:	71,910	387,839	68,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.6	67.8	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.5	-4.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,381 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	51.7	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	67.8	5.4
– Net Position:	53,958	-62,711	8,753
– Gross Longs:	83,033	202,095	29,895
– Gross Shorts:	29,075	264,806	21,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	60.8	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.3	-20.2	21.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 116,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	43.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	2.7	78.3	6.4
– Net Position:	116,189	-137,835	21,646
– Gross Longs:	126,866	168,316	46,829
– Gross Shorts:	10,677	306,151	25,183
– Long to Short Ratio:	11.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.2	11.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-9.1	10.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 59,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,077 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.1	32.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	53.1	12.0
– Net Position:	59,731	-57,725	-2,006
– Gross Longs:	108,976	93,974	32,255
– Gross Shorts:	49,245	151,699	34,261
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	34.2	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.4	-48.2	-9.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,204 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,403 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	36.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	52.3	12.5
– Net Position:	43,199	-35,424	-7,775
– Gross Longs:	84,944	78,505	19,440
– Gross Shorts:	41,745	113,929	27,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.8	51.6	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-16.2	0.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 51,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	43.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	71.8	3.4
– Net Position:	51,767	-59,761	7,994
– Gross Longs:	78,599	92,717	15,280
– Gross Shorts:	26,832	152,478	7,286
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.7	46.5	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-12.1	33.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 8,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,150 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	45.4	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.6	49.9	3.2
– Net Position:	8,311	-12,968	4,657
– Gross Longs:	96,892	131,596	13,945
– Gross Shorts:	88,581	144,564	9,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	73.3	43.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-11.6	30.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -11,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	41.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	36.3	11.4
– Net Position:	-11,499	14,914	-3,415
– Gross Longs:	89,300	119,733	29,557
– Gross Shorts:	100,799	104,819	32,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	80.9	92.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	16.7	32.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities

03 Sep

WTI Crude, Brent Oil and Gasoline lead COT Energy Speculators bets lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil, Brent and Gasoline lead Weekly Speculator Changes lower

The COT energy market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Heating Oil (3,373 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (98 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The energy market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was WTI Crude Oil (-17,031 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-3,589 contracts), Gasoline (-3,088 contracts) and Natural Gas (-155 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,470,207	0	229,189	5	-256,248	95	27,059	48
Gold	459,165	2	117,734	10	-129,679	92	11,945	2
Silver	138,714	6	-8,271	0	265	100	8,006	8
Copper	158,390	0	-23,255	19	24,985	83	-1,730	15
Palladium	5,875	0	-1,129	16	1,323	82	-194	33
Platinum	70,747	40	-5,378	1	646	99	4,732	28
Natural Gas	978,881	4	-128,765	40	92,463	60	36,302	66
Brent	180,952	24	-40,013	44	36,585	54	3,428	56
Heating Oil	283,427	29	25,196	79	-43,761	25	18,565	63
Soybeans	605,924	7	83,562	40	-52,791	68	-30,771	19
Corn	1,267,735	0	283,397	66	-225,759	40	-57,638	10
Coffee	193,889	7	48,687	81	-50,983	23	2,296	21
Sugar	752,642	9	62,551	49	-72,593	54	10,042	20
Wheat	288,545	0	-11,499	4	14,914	81	-3,415	93

Heating Oil leads the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (79.5 percent) leads the energy markets and is just under the bullish extreme position threshold (above 80 percent). The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.4 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (4.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position (below 20 percent). The next lowest is Gasoline (21.7 percent) followed by Natural Gas (39.9 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (44.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (4.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (9.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (44.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (50.1 percent)
Natural Gas (39.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (40.0 percent)
Gasoline (21.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (24.8 percent)
Heating Oil (79.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.4 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (59.0 percent)

Heating Oil also leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (23.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Gasoline (9.9 percent), the Bloomberg Commodity Index (6.0 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (2.2 percent) round out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data.

WTI Crude Oil (-11.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Natural Gas (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-11.1 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-5.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (2.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (3.3 percent)
Natural Gas (-2.5 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (0.9 percent)
Gasoline (9.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (20.1 percent)
Heating Oil (23.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (22.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (6.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-7.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 229,189 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,220 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	40.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	57.5	3.4
– Net Position:	229,189	-256,248	27,059
– Gross Longs:	332,415	588,601	77,360
– Gross Shorts:	103,226	844,849	50,301
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	95.1	48.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	10.1	6.9

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -40,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.0	51.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	31.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-40,013	36,585	3,428
– Gross Longs:	32,556	93,680	9,137
– Gross Shorts:	72,569	57,095	5,709
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	54.1	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-7.1	40.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -128,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -128,610 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	42.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	32.5	3.0
– Net Position:	-128,765	92,463	36,302
– Gross Longs:	168,924	410,930	65,677
– Gross Shorts:	297,689	318,467	29,375
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	60.0	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.8	6.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 49,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,790 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	47.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	68.4	5.8
– Net Position:	49,702	-53,438	3,736
– Gross Longs:	80,794	119,875	18,480
– Gross Shorts:	31,092	173,313	14,744
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	80.1	37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-7.6	-13.0

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	51.5	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	66.9	8.0
– Net Position:	25,196	-43,761	18,565
– Gross Longs:	49,157	145,893	41,370
– Gross Shorts:	23,961	189,654	22,805
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.5	24.7	62.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-21.3	13.9

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,567 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 98 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	74.3	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	56.0	0.1
– Net Position:	-12,567	12,243	324
– Gross Longs:	15,868	49,746	419
– Gross Shorts:	28,435	37,503	95
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	40.4	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-6.4	4.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing

03 Sep

Stock Market Speculator bets gain led by S&P500 Mini, VIX & EAFE Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

S&P500 Mini, VIX & EAFE Mini lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for stock markets was S&P500 Mini (22,644 contracts) with the VIX (8,410 contracts), MSCI EAFE Mini (7,680 contracts), Russell 2000 Mini (3,774 contracts) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini (3,174 contracts) also showing a positive weeks.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was the Nasdaq Mini (-11,226 contracts) with Nikkei 225 USD (-78 contracts), also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Aug-30-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,329,953	9	-239,632	12	311,815	94	-72,183	11
Nikkei 225	14,151	10	-4,641	55	2,949	44	1,692	50
Nasdaq-Mini	263,641	50	26,807	90	-2,850	25	-23,957	0
DowJones-Mini	77,430	38	-1,420	36	3,027	63	-1,607	30
VIX	338,590	38	-97,935	60	101,485	39	-3,550	74
Nikkei 225 Yen	56,933	39	-319	33	19,462	78	-19,143	35

Nasdaq-Mini leads the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (90.0 percent) leads the stocks markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini strength score is down from last week’s 96.3 percent but remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). The VIX (60.2 percent) comes in as the next highest stock market in strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (11.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Russell2000-Mini (16.2 percent) with both markets residing in a bearish extreme level currently (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (60.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (56.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (11.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (7.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (36.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (32.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (90.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (96.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (16.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (14.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (24.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (16.0 percent)

Dow Jones-Mini leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (19.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for stocks this week. The EAFE-Mini (13.0 percent) and the Russell 2000-Mini (5.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-14.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores were the Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) followed by the S&P500-Mini (-5.8 percent).

——————–
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (-20.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-5.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-8.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (19.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (20.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (10.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (5.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (12.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (-12.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -97,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	59.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	29.6	8.4
– Net Position:	-97,935	101,485	-3,550
– Gross Longs:	46,792	201,681	24,889
– Gross Shorts:	144,727	100,196	28,439
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.2	38.5	74.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.4	12.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -239,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,644 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -262,276 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	77.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	63.9	12.8
– Net Position:	-239,632	311,815	-72,183
– Gross Longs:	240,653	1,800,768	224,954
– Gross Shorts:	480,285	1,488,953	297,137
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.8	94.1	11.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	6.3	-2.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	49.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	45.2	17.1
– Net Position:	-1,420	3,027	-1,607
– Gross Longs:	26,724	38,005	11,643
– Gross Shorts:	28,144	34,978	13,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	63.1	29.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-24.1	18.9

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	56.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	57.4	21.2
– Net Position:	26,807	-2,850	-23,957
– Gross Longs:	77,379	148,385	32,035
– Gross Shorts:	50,572	151,235	55,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.0	24.8	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	10.3	-31.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -91,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	86.8	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	69.2	4.4
– Net Position:	-91,149	92,282	-1,133
– Gross Longs:	39,315	455,296	22,023
– Gross Shorts:	130,464	363,014	23,156
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	83.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-7.1	12.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	53.3	34.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.0	32.5	22.3
– Net Position:	-4,641	2,949	1,692
– Gross Longs:	1,729	7,548	4,844
– Gross Shorts:	6,370	4,599	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	44.4	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	-1.3	37.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	91.5	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	88.6	1.5
– Net Position:	-13,864	11,445	2,419
– Gross Longs:	23,657	366,925	8,362
– Gross Shorts:	37,521	355,480	5,943
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	75.9	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-11.6	-8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Stock Market News

02 Sep

A Multi-Asset Trading Platform from RoboForex Is Named the Best in the LatAm Area

RoboForex, the company that provides services for trading on global financial markets, received an award in the “Best Multi Asset Trading Platform – LATAM” category at the Global Banking & Finance Awards.

The famous international magazine Global Banking and Finance Review, an organiser of the same-name award, has rewarded RoboForex for the best multi-asset trading platform, R StocksTrader, the company’s proprietary solution for the second consecutive year.

R StocksTrader combines cutting-edge technologies and a classic, intuitive interface. Access to all global financial markets is provided through a web terminal in a familiar browser on desktop and mobile devices. Traders can use over 12,000 trading instruments, one-click trading directly from charts, advanced watchlists, and a free strategy builder that starts and runs in the “cloud”.

Robert Stephenson, Chief Business Officer at RoboForex, says: “RoboForex is very delighted to have won the “Best Multi Asset Trading Platform – LATAM” title again. We’ve been actively working in this region and see what clients want: cutting-edge technologies, instant access to markets, and a wide choice of trading instruments. All these features can be easily found in our terminal, R StocksTrader, which becomes more convenient and powerful after each upgrade.”

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company which delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work on financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd has the brokerage licence FSC 000138/333. More detailed information about the Company’s products and activities can be found on the official website at roboforex.com.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Sep

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, ETH). Overview for 02.09.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

On Friday, the BTC is barely moving close to $20,101. The major crypto is slowly cheapening, but market players remain cautious and don’t want to sell without news. The news might come up later today – labour market data for August from the US. Actually, market expectations are rather average: both Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to remain unchanged. The key intrigue lies in Non-Farm Payrolls. Strong numbers will help capital markets grow and the crypto sector will follow. However, if the BTC fails to secure above $22,000, one should forget about the growth potential.

At the end of this trading week, the capitalisation of the crypto market is estimated at $984 billion, and the share of the BTC dropped to 39.1%. The fear index has dropped a bit, 25 points.

Buterin: BTC is in danger

Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin is worried about the BTC security. He surfaced the reasons for being concerned about the prospects of the major cryptocurrency – the BTC won’t be able to get enough revenue yield from commissions. In this case, mining won’t be efficient enough.

Justin Sun bought ETH

In the last four days, Tron founder Justin Sun bought 20,633 ETHs for the total amount of $33 million. Sun supports the PoS concept and allows ETHW and ETHS tokens in his exchange Poloniex.

BABL plummeted 95%

The BABL price plunged 95% after they announced the shutdown of Babylon Finance. The project’s founders said that they weren’t able to handle the negative impulse that appeared after DeFi-platform Rari Capital was hacked.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

02 Sep

GBP: no rest for the wicked. Overview for 02.09.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD keeps updating its lows; there are very few options on how to stop the plunge.

After updating another low against the USD, the Pound Sterling is trying to reach stability. The current quote for the instrument is 1.1562.

The political factor should be cleared up as early as next Monday. The Conservative Party will announce its new leader, who will go on to become the country’s Prime Minister. Liz Truss is a favourite so far. Politicians like her. Unlike investors.

Truss has a checkered reputation despite many years of political experience and the current status of Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs. However, she has opponents, and if the party chooses Rishi Sunak, a young conservator and Chancellor of the Exchequer, to be the next leader, the Pound will get much support.

All these things considered, fundamental prospects for the GBP remain negative. Neither Truss nor Sunak will be able to reverse the British currency upwards, because the crisis is only escalating.

Nevertheless, there might be some local improvement for sure.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.09.02

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0049
Prev Close: 0.9943
% chg. over the last day: -1.07 %

Important data will be released today on the US labor market. The Nonfarm Payroll report is expected to show an increase of 300,000 jobs after recording an increase of 528,000 in July. Another strong report is likely to further reinforce expectations that the Fed will continue its excessive rate hikes after three straight 75 basis point hikes. The US dollar hit a 20-year high yesterday as economic data supports the Fed’s aggressive stance.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 0.9900
Resistance levels: 0.9973, 1.0024, 1.0112, 1.0146, 1.0230, 1.0286, 1.0365

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Yesterday the EUR/USD quotes fell below parity again. Technically, a wide balance is being formed. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the selling pressure remains. Under such market conditions it is best to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 0.9900, but only with a confirmation in the form of a false breakdown. Sell trades can be considered from resistance levels of 0.9973 or 1.0024, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0146 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.02:

– Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1622
Prev Close: 1.1544
% chg. over the last day: -0.67 %

The UK Manufacturing Business Activity Index unexpectedly increased overr the last month from 46 to 47.3. This is a positive factor, but the value is still below the 50 levels, indicating a slowdown in the sector. If you look at the GBP/USD chart on higher time frames, traders can clearly see that the British pound has been declining against the US dollar since 2007. But the rate of decline has gained strength in recent months, as the energy crisis and lack of government continue to weigh on the national exchange rate.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1500, 1.1400
Resistance levels: 1.1586, 1.1670, 1.1817, 1.1838, 1.1901, 1.1994, 1.2035, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The situation does not change. The British pound has been declining for 8 sessions in a row and breaking through all support levels. The price is trading below the moving levels, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the divergence is getting stronger. At the moment, it is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1586. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1500, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1817 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.02:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 139.08
Prev Close: 140.20
% chg. over the last day: +0.81 %

The Japanese yen has fallen to 140.23 yen against the dollar, its lowest level since 1998. The continuing fall in the Japanese currency is putting pressure on the consensus between Japan’s Central Bank, which is trying to boost inflation, and Japan’s government, which is desperately trying to avoid a cost-of-living crisis. Some analysts say that fixing the price above the 140 level could trigger government intervention.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 139.61, 137.67, 136.85, 135.89, 135.35, 134.23, 133.47, 132.27
Resistance levels: 141.00, 142.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is trading above the moving average lines again, and the buyers’ pressure remains. The MACD indicator remains positive, but there are signs of divergence, which means that a technical correction will take place soon. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 139.61, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is possible to consider the psychological resistance levels of 141 and 142, but only with additional confirmation, as fundamentally, USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 137.67, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.02:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3125
Prev Close: 1.3153
% chg. over the last day: +0.21 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, but also on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The deteriorating economic outlook in China and Europe, along with geopolitical concerns related to soaring gas prices and the ongoing war in Ukraine have bolstered the dollar in recent weeks. At the same time, an oil sell-off due to a new coronavirus outbreak in China could push a barrel below $85. As a result, the Canadian dollar has been under pressure from a rising dollar index and falling oil prices recently.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3103, 1.3026, 1.2992, 1.2958, 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2858, 1.2809, 1.2761
Resistance levels: 1.3220

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading above the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support levels of 1.3103 or 1.3026, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3220, but only after additional confirmation, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.2992 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.09.02:

– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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