Archive for Financial News – Page 255

Rare Earths Co. Drills Deepest Hole Yet in B.C.

Source: Streetwise Reports  (12/5/22)

Defense Metals Corp. has now released results from 10 of 18 holes in its 5,500m drill program this year.

Defense Metals Corp. (DEFN:TSX.V; DFMTF:OTCQB; 35D:FSE) has released results from the deepest hole it’s drilled yet at its Wicheeda rare earth element (REE) deposit in British Columbia.

Hole WI22-72 totaled 374 meters, terminating 360 meters below the surface and 150 meters below the pit shell and intersecting high-grade mineralized dolomite carbonate from surface grading 3.02% total rare earth oxides (TREO) over 55 meters.

Assays also returned a broader zone of 2.56% TREO over 122 meters.

With assays from 10 of 18 holes in the 5,500-meter drilling program still pending, results from this year and data from 2021 will be incorporated in a preliminary feasibility study (PFS) for the 100%-company-owned site.

“The 2022 Wicheeda Deposit resource infill drilling continues to yield high-grade REE intercepts from surface exceeding 3% TREO,” wrote analyst Mark Reichman.

“The 2022 Wicheeda Deposit resource infill drilling continues to yield high-grade REE intercepts from surface exceeding 3% TREO,” wrote analyst Mark Reichman in a Nov. 23 note for Noble Capital Markets.

“Results from the 2022 drilling are expected to contribute greatly toward upgrading resource categories in support of the preliminary feasibility study which is expected to be completed by the fourth quarter of 2023.”

Defense Metals Chief Executive Officer and Director Craig Taylor said the drill results “are doubly significant in that they represent the deepest test of the Wicheeda Deposit to date, which yielded a broad mixed lithology interval averaging nearly two times the mineral resource cutoff grade ending 50 meters below the current pit shell. The fact that we continue to see potentially economic REE grades at these depths is extremely encouraging.”

The company also announced a private placement that is expected to close this week to raise up to CA$6 million to advance the project.

The offering consisted of the sale of up to 12.5 million common shares of the company that qualified as flow-through shares (FT) at a price of CA$0.28 per FT share and up to 11.4 million units at a price of CA$0.22 per unit.

Each unit consists of one common share and one-half of a common share purchase warrant.

The Catalyst

Reichman said he expected the PFS to potentially extend the resource and the mine’s life past 19 years.

Analyst Michael Gray of Agentis Capital said, Wicheeda was well-located with access to key infrastructure and “could become a globally significant producer” of REEs.

“The 2022 resource infill drilling continues to yield high-grade REE intercepts from surface exceeding 3% TREO,” Reichman wrote.

“The recent drill results are significant in that they represent the deepest drilling to test the Wicheeda Deposit to date, yielding a broad mixed lithology interval averaging nearly two times the mineral resource cut-off grade ending 50 meters below the current pit shell.”

Analyst Michael Gray of Agentis Capital recently initiated coverage on the company, saying Wicheeda was well-located with access to key infrastructure and “could become a globally significant producer” of REEs. He set a 12-month valuation of CA$3.50 for the stock.

“DEFN is a best-of-breed North American REE developer that is well-positioned to its leverage growing global REE demand and government support to become part of a North American REE critical metals supply chain,” Gray wrote.

The World Needs REEs

Defense Metals hopes to produce as much as 10% of the world’s light REEs to reduce reliance on China, which has about 85% of the world’s REE processing capacity. Political issues between the United States, China, and Taiwan put that vital supply at risk, as well as pressure from within China itself.

REEs are in high demand in the new green economy for purifying water, MRIs, fertilizers, weapons, research, wind turbines, computers, and permanent magnet motors for electric vehicles (EVs).

A preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for Wicheeda in 2021 showed an after-tax net present value of CA$512 million. Its 43-101 technical report showed a 5 million tonne indicated resource at 2.95% total rare earth oxides (TREO) and a 29.5 million tonne inferred resource averaging 1.83% TREO.

Results from another core hole, WI22-70, were released this fall. Drilling there intersected 2.5% of total TREO over 113 meters. DEFN also intersected a broad zone of mineralized dolomite carbonatite averaging 2.14% TREO over 221 meters, including an interval of 3.52% TREO over 111 meters, at hole WI22-69.

Wicheeda could help fill the resource gap with China, Reichman said. “The assay results released thus far have been outstanding,” he wrote.

Ownership, Coverage, and Share Structure

Three money managers — Marquest Asset Management, U.S. Global Investors, and Probity/Qwest Funds — own a small percentage of the company. The rest is retail.

Currently, the analysts covering Defense Metals Corp. include Reichman and Gray. Newsletter writers Clive Maund and Bob Moriarty also follow the stock. You can see all the analyst and newsletter coverage by clicking “See More Live Data” in the data box above.

Defense Metals has a market cap of CA$39.43 million with 183.4 million shares outstanding, 140.6 million of them free floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.36 and CA$0.165.

Disclosures:

1) Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He and members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Defense Metals Corp. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Defense Metals Corp. Please click here for more information. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

3) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

4) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees, or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Defense Metals Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

Banks are predicting a recession next year. Santa Claus rally postponed

By JustMarkets

Instead of a Santa Claus rally, the US stock indices have been under selling pressure in recent days. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.03%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.44%. The technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 2.00% yesterday. All three indices closed negative.

After strong jobs and services data in recent days, traders and investors are reassessing the risks and probabilities of how the Fed will act next and how much it will raise rates in the future. Analysts point to a 91% chance that the US central bank could raise rates by 50 basis points at its December 13-14 meeting, with rates expected to peak at 4.98% in May 2023. Concerns about lower economic growth come amid disappointing forecasts from banks such as Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, and BlackRock, which predict a recession in 2023.

The CEO of Bank of America Corp (BAC) predicted moderate negative growth for three-quarters of next year, while JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Governor Jamie Dimon said inflation would reduce consumer purchasing power and that inflation will be moderate or more pronounced. That said, there is a recession ahead of everyone. Analysts at BlackRock (BLK) believe an aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve to combat stubbornly high price increases could trigger an economic slowdown in 2023.

Shares of Meta Platforms Inc (META) fell by 6.8% yesterday after reports that European Union regulators ruled that the company should not require users to consent to personalized advertising based on their digital activity.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.72%, French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.14%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.46%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Tuesday down by 0.61%.

The UK Construction Business Activity Index fell to a three-month low. Business expectations were the weakest since May 2020. Rising interest rates, higher borrowing costs, and worries about the economic outlook reduced construction activity. The UK economic outlook remains bleak, but the new government is doing everything it can to cushion the falling economy. Analysts believe that economic indicators will decline until spring-summer 2023, after which they will reach a low point and then begin a slow recovery.

The Eurozone will have revised GDP data today. Growth in the region has slowed in recent months due to high energy costs and rising interest rates, and this trend is likely to continue until the end of the first quarter of 2023. On the other hand, the imposition of a ceiling on Russian oil, which went into effect on Monday, may soon begin to show its impact on Europe’s energy market in the direction of lower prices.

Europe’s energy market in the direction of lower prices. Tuesday’s drop was the biggest daily drop in oil prices since late September. Russia has said it will not sell oil to anyone who signs up to a price ceiling. Oil markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term due to news about COVID in China and the policies of the US and European central banks.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.24%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.40%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.47%.

Major Chinese cities have already loosened some travel restrictions and testing requirements in the face of a pronounced economic slowdown. Data released earlier Wednesday showed that the country’s foreign trade is in its worst condition since 2020.

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda stated that the Bank of Japan is aiming for a steady and stable inflation target of 2%, accompanied by wage growth. Japan’s largest labor union decided last week to call for a wage increase of about 5% next spring, the highest demand in 28 years. The move indicates that Japan intends to fight rising prices by regulating wage levels rather than by changing monetary policy.

Australia’s GDP grew just 0.6% in the third quarter, below the previous figure of 0.9% and below the expected 0.7%. On the one hand, this is the fourth consecutive quarter of positive growth; on the other hand, it is the weakest over the past year. Annual GDP rose by 5.9% but below the 6.2% forecast. According to RBA forecasts, GDP is expected to continue to decline through 2024.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,941.26 −57.58 (−1.44%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,596.34 −350.76 (−1.03%)

DAX (DE40) 14,343.19 −104.42 (−0.72%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,521.39 −46.15 (−0.61%)

USD Index 105.58 +0.29 (+0.28%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 05:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Rate Statement at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Sentiment Hit By Rekindled Fed Hike Bets

By ForexTime 

Asian shares were under attack on Tuesday, following the negative cues from Wall Street overnight as unexpectedly strong US data revived expectations of the Fed raising rates more than expected.

European futures are pointing to a mixed open this morning amid the shaky sentiment and lack of risk appetite. This overall market caution could trickle back down to US indices, empowering US equity bears ahead of a light week of data for financial markets. In the currency universe, the dollar pushed higher, dragging most G10 currencies lower while gold tumbled back below $1780. Oil bears seem to be in control as investors juggle the impact of the new EU sanctions, the OPEC+ meeting over the weekend, and the strong US economic data.

Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points as widely expected. Given how the central bank left the door open to further hikes down the road, this has offered some support to the Australian dollar. However, signs of easing inflationary pressures may raise hopes that prices have peaked. Back in October, inflation cooled to 6.9% compared to 7.3% year-on-year in September. With the central bank potentially adopting a less aggressive approach towards rates as the tightening cycle approaches an end, this could eventually hit the Australian dollar.

Dollar receives a lifeline?

Over the past few weeks, the dollar has been bruised and battered by expectations around the Federal Reserve adopting a less aggressive approach towards interest rate hikes. It has depreciated against every single G10 currency since the start of the fourth quarter as long dollar positioning eased and the DXY index shifted in favour of the bears. However, buying sentiment towards the world’s reserve currency received a slight boost yesterday after the ISM services PMI data surprised to the upside, further fuelling bets that the Fed could keep its foot on the rate rise pedal. While the central bank is widely expected to hike interest rates by 50bps next week, continued strength in the labour markets and signs of inflation regaining momentum could lead to a higher peak or “terminal” rate than anticipated.

Looking at the technicals, the DXY is trading below the 200-day SMA and 105.50 resistance level. A breakout above this point could encourage more upside towards 107.00 and 107.85, respectively.

Currency spotlight – USDCAD

USDCAD is edging higher ahead of the Bank of Canada’s final rate decision for 2022 on Wednesday, which analysts expect to conclude with a 25bp rate hike. However, money markets price in a 68% chance of a 50bp move after better-than-expected Q3 GDP and the tight labour market.

Looking at the technical picture, the USDCAD remains fairly neutral on the daily charts with support found at 1.3390 and resistance at 1.3620. A breakout could be on the horizon with the BoC meeting acting as the directional catalyst.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold crumbled yesterday, cutting through key levels like a hot knife through butter thanks to a stronger dollar, renewed Fed hike bets, and the easing of China’s Covid zero policies.

The precious metal fell roughly 1.6% and has found itself back within the November range. Support can be found at $1735 and resistance at $1785. Given how bears seem to be in a position of power, prices could test the lower part of the range soon. Below this level, a decline toward $1700 could be on the cards.


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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Trade of the week: USDCAD Waits For BoC Rate Decision

By ForexTime

This could be a wild week for the USDCAD due to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate decision on Wednesday.

A sense of tension can already be felt when observing the currency pair which remains wedged within a small range on the hourly timeframe. The USDCAD’s choppy price action and indecision are likely based on last Friday’s jobs report from both the United States and Canada which sent prices on a mini rollercoaster ride.

US employers added more jobs than expected in November, signalling that demand for new workers remained robust despite the Federal Reserve’s war against soaring inflation. Non-farm Payrolls rose by 263,000 in November, smashing the 200,000 estimates but below the upwardly revised 284,000 increase seen in October. In Canada, it was a tepid picture with the economy only adding 10,100 jobs. Although this was the third straight month of increase, the small increase was seen as having limited impacts on the Bank of Canada’s rate decision for December.

Sentiment remains bearish toward the Canadian economy with most economists expecting the country to descend into a technical recession in 2023. With the BoC already shifting into lower gear on rate hikes, this could translate to further Loonie weakness for the rest of 2022 – especially combined with the gloomy sentiment.

Before we discuss what to expect from the USDCAD over the next few days, it is worth keeping in mind that prices remain in a bearish trend on the daily charts. A minor breakout/down could be on the horizon which may pave a path south or north depending on how markets react to the final BoC rate decision for 2022.

The low down…

After peaking at 8.1% back in June 2022, Canada’s annual inflation rate has slowed over the past few months with the current rate at 6.9% in October.

Signs of easing inflationary pressures have encouraged the BoC to adopt a less aggressive approach toward rates. In fact, the central bank is widely expected to hike rates by only 25 basis points on Wednesday which could be the final one before taking a pause. The Canadian economy expanded at an annualized 2.9% on quarter in Q3 2022, which exceeded the forecast of 3.2% and marked a fifth consecutive quarter of growth. Looking ahead, economic growth is forecasted to cool to 0.5% in Q4 according to Bloomberg which will result in GDP expanding by 3.3% in 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, growth is seen contracting -0.5%. With the road ahead for the Canadian economy rocky, this may hit buying sentiment toward the Canadian dollar.

The week ahead…

It’s all about the BoC rate final rate decision for 2022 on Wednesday, December 7th which is expected to conclude with a 25 basis-point rate hike. This decision is widely expected despite the better-than-expected Q3 GDP and somewhat tight labour market.

However, much attention will be directed toward the press conference by Governor Macklem which could provide key insight into the monetary policy path for 2023. Although economic data has been painting a positive picture since the October meeting, most economists expect the country to descend into a technical recession in 2023. This sentiment is likely to keep BoC hawks at bay, reducing the possibility of a surprise 50 basis-point hike.

Other factors to watch out for…

The oil-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) appreciated on Monday, drawing strength from OPEC’s Sunday meeting.

Oil prices edged higher after OPEC+ decided to stick with the game plan to cut output. Although production was kept unchanged, the cartel stated that it would take “immediate” action if needed to stabilise global oil markets. Another factor supporting the Loonie is the European Union imposing a price cap on Russian oil. These factors could keep the Canadian dollar buoyed ahead of the BoC rate decision.

What next for the USDCAD?

On the daily chart, the USDCAD remains in a bearish trend with prices currently bouncing within a small range. Prices are trading below the 50-day SMA but still above both the 100-day and 200-day. A solid breakdown below 1.3390 could encourage a decline toward 1.3230 and 1.3050, respectively. Should prices break above 1.3500, bulls could be inspired to challenge 1.3600 and 1.3750.


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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Jobs are up! Wages are up! So why am I as an economist so gloomy?

By Edouard Wemy, Clark University 

In any other time, the jobs news that came down on Dec. 2, 2022, would be reason for cheer.

The U.S. added 263,000 nonfarm jobs in November, leaving the unemployment rate at a low 3.7%. Moreover, wages are up – with average hourly pay jumping 5.1% compared with a year earlier.

So why am I not celebrating? Oh, yes: inflation.

The rosy employment figures come despite repeated efforts by the Federal Reserve to tame the job market and the wider economy in general in its fight against the worst inflation in decades. The Fed has now increased the base interest rate six times in 2022, going from a historic low of about zero to a range of 3.75% to 4% today. Another hike is expected on Dec. 13. Yet inflation remains stubbornly high, and currently sits at an annual rate of 7.7%.

The economic rationale behind hiking rates is that it increases the cost of doing business for companies. This in turn acts as brake on the economy, which should cool inflation.

But that doesn’t appear to be happening. A closer dive into November’s jobs report reveals why.

It shows that the labor force participation rate – how many working-age Americans have a job or are seeking one – is stuck at just over 62.1%. As the report notes, that figure is “little changed” in November and has shown “little net change since early this year.” In fact, it is down 1.3 percentage points from pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels.

This suggests that the heating up of the labor market is being driven by supply-side issues. That is, there aren’t enough people to fill the jobs being advertised.

Companies still want to hire – as the above-expected job gains indicate. But with fewer people actively looking for work in the U.S., companies are having to go the extra yard to be attractive to job seekers. And that means offering higher wages. And higher wages – they were up 5.1% in November from a year earlier – contribute to spiraling inflation.

This puts the Fed in a very difficult position. Simply put, there is not an awful lot it can do about supply-side issues in the labor market. The main monetary tool it has to affect jobs is rate hikes, which make it more costly to do business, which should have an impact on hiring. But that only affects the demand side – that is, employers and recruitment policies.

So where does this leave the possibility of further rate hikes? Viewing this as an economist, it suggests that the Fed might be eyeing a base rate jump of more than 75 basis points on Dec. 13, rather than a softening of its policies as Chair Jerome Powell had suggested as recently as Nov. 30. Yes, this still would not ease the labor supply problem that is encouraging wage growth, but it might serve to cool the wider economy nonetheless.

The problem is, this would increase the chances of also pushing the U.S. economy into a recession – and it could be a pretty nasty recession.

Wage growth still trails behind inflation, and for one reason or another people have been opting out of the labor market. The logical assumption to make is that to make up for both these factors, American families have been dipping into their savings.

Statistics back this up. The personal saving rate – that is, the chunk of income left after paying taxes and spending money – has fallen steeply, down to 2.3% in December from 9.3% before the pandemic. In fact, it is at its lowest rate since 2005.

So, yes, employment is robust. But the money being earned is eroded by soaring inflation. Meanwhile, the safety net of savings that families might need is getting smaller.

In short, people are not prepared for the recession that might be lurking around the corner.

And this is why I am gloomy.The Conversation

About the Author:

Edouard Wemy, Assistant Professor of Economics, Clark University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 05.12.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the support level, gold has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair is going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of growth might be 1835.50. Upon testing the resistance level, the pair might break through it and continue the uptrend. However, the quotes may pull back to 1790.00 before further growth.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, gold has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair may go by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of growth might be 0.6505. After the resistance level is broken away, the quotes may get a chance to continue the uptrend. However, the price may pull back to 0.6380 before further growth.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, at the support level, gold has formed a Hammer reversal pattern. Currently, the pair is going by the signal in an ascending wave. The goal of the growth may be the resistance level of 1.2465. However, the price may pull back to 1.2200 before continuing the uptrend.

GBPUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 05.12.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which signifies prevalence of an uptrend. However, the RSI is nearing the overbought area. As a result, the quotes are expected to test 7/8 (1.0620), a bounce off it, and falling to the support level of 5/8 (1.0376). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over 7/8 (1.0620), in which case the pair should continue growing and reach 8/8 (1.0742).

EURUSDH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is too far from the current price, so a signal to fall will be a bounce off 7/8 (1.0620) on H4.

EURUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The situation of the GBPUSD chart is similar. On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, and the RSI is nearing the overbought area. A test of 7/8 (1.2451) is expected, followed by a bounce off it and falling to the support level of 5/8 (1.1962). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 7/8 (1.2451), which might provoke further growth to 8/8 (1.2695).

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is too far from the current price, so a signal to fall will be a bounce off 7/8 (1.2451) on H4.

GBPUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.12.05

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0525
  • Prev Close: 1.0539
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.13 %

On Friday, investors were looking for signs of weakness in the US labor market, especially wages, as a precursor to a faster slowdown in inflation, which would allow the Fed to slow down and eventually halt its current rate hike cycle. But the NFP data surprised again, and the October data was revised upward, highlighting that the US labor market continues to show signs of high resilience despite tightening financial conditions. This, in turn, gives the Fed room for another major hike, although there is less than a 20% chance of such a scenario.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0543, 1.491, 1.0446, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284, 1.0193
  • Resistance levels: 1.0610

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but with signs of stopping in the form of divergence. Buy trades are best considered after a slight correction to the support levels of 1.0543 or 1.0491, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0610, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0332 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.12.05:
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 03:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Spanish Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Services PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
  • –– French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2242
  • Prev Close: 1.2291
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.40 %

Financial markets gave British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak a pretty easy start. The Bank of England will meet for the last time this year on December 15. Swati Dhingra of the bank’s monetary policy committee said late last week that the Bank of England’s benchmark interest rate must peak no higher than 4.5% if the central bank wants to avoid a deepening and prolonged recession. For now, the Bank of England is holding the rate at 3%, compared with the RBNZ’s 4.25%, the US Fed’s 4.00%, and the Bank of Canada’s 3.75%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2224, 1.2016, 1.1964, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
  • Resistance levels: 1.2381, 1.2431

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading above the moving levels. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there are signs of divergence, which indicates the weakness of the buyers. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2224, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2381, but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1965 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.12.05:
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 135.28
  • Prev Close: 134.31
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.72 %

As market participants focused on strong wage growth and solid US employment data, the USD/JPY pair jumped on Friday after the NFP release. However, another 50 basis point hike is expected at the December FOMC meeting. Given that the Bank of Japan will maintain an ultra-soft policy at least until spring 2023, analysts expect a new wave of USD/JPY growth amid a widening of the difference between the interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 135.20, 133.53
  • Resistance levels: 137.65, 139.09, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but on the higher time frames, the divergence is formed, which indicates the weakness of the sellers. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on the intraday time frames from the support level of 134.26, but only with confirmation, since the level has already been tested. Sell deals could be sought from the resistance level of 135.11 or 137.65, provided there is a reversal.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 139.08, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.12.05:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3430
  • Prev Close: 1.3471
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.31 %

The Bank of Canada has a tough decision to make at its upcoming policy meeting on December 7. Governor Tiff Macklem argues that further rate hikes are needed to bring inflation under control, but the central bank is facing criticism as there are signs of a slowing economy. Therefore, it is very likely that the Bank of Canada will raise the rate by 0.25%. But there could be surprises, as Tiff Macklem wants to keep up with the US Fed, and the US central bank is planning a 0.5% rate hike. Robust employment data could justify a potential 50 basis point hike by the Bank of Canada.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3446, 1.3479, 1.3522, 1.3658, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair has changed to bullish. The price failed to break down through the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers’ pressure is weak. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386, but with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3446 but with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3386, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR Decided to Sky-Rocket

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Monday, the market major has reached 1.0580. It must be realized, that this is not because the euro is strong but because the dollar is weak. Investors are undermining the USD, treading on statistics and upcoming decisions of the US Federal Reserve System.

The labour market in the US remains vigorous. In November, the unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, and the NFP grew by 263 thousand instead of 200 thousand forecast. Average hourly wage increased by 5.1% y/y upon growing by 4.6% in October.

All this makes the employment picture quite stable and gives us an idea that the US business withstands the growing expenses on crediting quite efficiently. The wage fund has expanded, which hinders the market idea about the interest rate growing by 50 base points in December.

With all this background, the USD is really unstable, which is obvious in the quotes.

On H4, the currency pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.0466. Today the market is trying to break it upwards. The structure of growth is expected to extend to 1.0634, and after it is reached, a link of correction to 1.0464 is not excluded, followed by growth to 1.0703. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its line is directed strictly upwards, which suggests further growth.

On H1, the pair has completed an impulse of growth to 1.0531. Today the market has formed a consolidation range around it, and with an escape upwards, it extends the structure of growth to 1.0634. Technically, the scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above 80 and shows no evidence of decline as yet.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

China eases Covid restrictions. The dollar index fell to a 5-month low amid expectations of a rate hike slowdown

By JustMarkets

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that it might be time to slow rate hikes, raising hopes that the Central Bank is near the end of its tightening cycle. But Friday’s jobs report that hiring remained high last month while average hourly earnings rose. The US non-farm payrolls report (NFP) beat market expectations with 263,000 new jobs created compared to the expected 200,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings rose to 5.1% year-over-year against expectations of 4.6% and a revised higher October rate of 4.9%. This suggests that the labor market remains strong, giving the Fed room for another major hike, although there is less than a 20% chance of such a scenario.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.10% (+0.45% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.12% (+1.66% for the week). Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.18% (+2.82% for the week). Despite the slight decline on Friday, all three indices closed the week on a profit.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rallied last week. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.27% (+0.40% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.17% (+0.96% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) was down 0.30% (+0.06% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed 0.03% (+0.93% for the week).

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to appear twice this week ahead of this year’s key ECB policy meeting on December 15. Markets are leaning toward a 50 basis point rate hike at the ECB’s upcoming meeting after data last week showed that Eurozone inflation fell much more than expected in November. European Central Bank officials in Germany and France said over the weekend that the ECB would return inflation to 2% by the end of 2024 or 2025. National governments have used hundreds of billions of euros to protect companies and households from rising energy prices, which bankers said could undermine their efforts to rein in inflation. Nagel and Villeroy called for a return to a more balanced budget in the near future.

Representatives of OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and its allies, including Russia, met Sunday to discuss production targets after the G7 countries agreed to cap Russian oil prices. On Friday, the G7 nations and Australia agreed to cap the price of Russian offshore crude at $60 a barrel to deprive President Vladimir Putin of revenue to fund the invasion of Ukraine. Many OPEC analysts and ministers say the cap is ineffective because Moscow sells most of its oil to countries such as China and India. So far, OPEC+ countries have agreed to stick to their oil production targets at a meeting on Sunday. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Sunday that Russia would rather cut production than deliver oil under a price cap.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined 1.57% over the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 9.85% last week, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up 0.58%. Most Asian markets are trading sideways on Monday amid some uncertainty over US monetary policy after strong wage data, while Chinese stocks are rising as the government loosened restrictions imposed on COVID. Hong Kong stocks have also significantly outperformed their Chinese counterparts in the last month as the city rolled back its COVID policies early.

In the commodities market, futures on silver (+8.98%), copper (+6.27), WTI oil (+5.32%), palladium (+4.56%), platinum (+3.8%), cotton (+3.68%), and gold (+3.27%) showed the biggest gains over the week. Futures on natural gas (-15.12%), lumber (-6.23%), wheat (-4.64%), corn (-3.69%), and orange juice (-3.18%) showed the biggest drops.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,071.70 −4.87 (−0.12%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,429.88 +34.87 (+0.10%)

DAX (DE40) 14,529.39 +39.09 (+0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,556.23 −2.266 (−0.030%)

USD Index 104.51 −0.22 (−0.21%)

Important events for today:
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 03:45 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Spanish Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Services PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
  • – French Services PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.