Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 244

China is opening its borders. The US labor market remains solid

The US stock market ended Friday’s trading higher on the back of a dollar Index drop after key data on the US labor market. The non-farm report showed the US economy added 223,000 jobs, higher than the expected 200,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7%, while average hourly earnings fell to 4.6% from a revised decline of 4.8%. As the US labor market remains resilient, the Fed can count on further rate hikes to keep inflation in check. The dollar index unexpectedly fell on a strong US labor market report, and this could be a “false” move as a strong labor market, along with further rate hikes, is the foundation for a stronger dollar. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 2.13% (+1.54% for the week), and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 2.28% (+1.72% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.56% on Friday (+1.94% for the week). All three indices closed in positive territory last week.

Last week’s FOMC report showed that Fed policymakers increased the final interest rate range, and the non-farm payrolls report showed that the labor market remains resilient. Together, these 2 factors point to further interest rate hikes in the first half of 2023. A key factor will be the inflation data on January 12.

On Sunday in California, hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses were without power due to a severe storm. On Saturday, the NWS Weather Alert warned that the cumulative effect of successive heavy rains since late December could cause rivers to reach record highs and cause flooding in much of central California.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.20% (+4.41% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.47% (+5.21% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.00% (+4.78% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up 0.87% (+2.49% for the week).

Falling energy prices in the Eurozone (especially natural gas prices) helped weaken the overall inflation rate. The overall inflation rate fell from 10.1% to 9.2% on an annualized basis. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also fell from 5.1% to 5.0% year over year. But the detailed report indicates that price pressures in non-energy sectors are rising, especially for food. This indicates that inflation is still strong. The next two months will be critical, as many businesses traditionally change prices early in the year.

Consequently, it is possible that core inflation will continue to rise. Consumption remains under pressure, and retail sales have been declining for quite some time, businesses continue to adjust their prices upward. The ECB has taken a very hawkish stance and is likely to keep the pace of rate hikes at 50 bp in February and March.

Asian markets traded mixed last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 CHA50) was up 0.81%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up 4.80%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 1.34%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week up 1.24% positive.

China on Saturday marked the first day of “Chun Yun,” the 40-day lunar New Year period. This Lunar New Year public holiday, which officially begins on January 21, will be the first since 2020 with no restrictions on domestic travel. Also, on Sunday, China will reopen its border with Hong Kong. China’s Ministry of Transportation expects more than 2 billion passengers to travel over the next 40 days. Investors hope the reopening will eventually revive the economy. Ultimately, it is likely to have an impact on oil prices. Demand for oil in China usually rises every year after the Lunar New Year. The increase in demand is a signal for rising oil prices.

In the commodities market, futures on copper (+2.97%), cotton (+2.76%), gold (+2.43%), and platinum (+1.99%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-15.96%), gasoline (-9.05%), Brent oil (-8.51%), WTI oil (-8.14%), wheat (-6.19%), sugar (-5.34%), coffee (-5.29%), corn (-3.72%) and lumber (-2.95%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,895.08 +66.02 (+1.72%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,630.61 +509.00 (+1.54%)

DAX (DE40) 14,610.02 +173.71 (+1.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,699.49 +66.04 (+0.87%)

USD Index 103.91 -1.13 (-1.08%)

Important events for today:

– Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+2);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

07 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators increased their 2-Year Bond & Eurodollar bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bond & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (29,137 contracts) with the Eurodollar (6,950 contracts), Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,009 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (2,609 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-39,393 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-30,091 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-18,194 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-14,154 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	6,012,543	1	-983,761	35	1,179,506	62	-195,745	61
FedFunds	1,306,518	30	-108,401	26	119,440	74	-11,039	32
2-Year	2,219,812	20	-521,508	10	524,938	90	-3,430	51
Long T-Bond	1,198,425	42	-169,258	30	142,676	61	26,582	74
10-Year	3,851,091	54	-383,602	14	467,443	77	-83,841	60
5-Year	4,213,262	63	-652,919	5	709,058	93	-56,139	66

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (36 percent) and the Eurodollar (35 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (30 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently followed by the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (14.1 percent). These markets are all in Extreme-Bearish territory with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (35.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (36.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (34.7 percent)
Eurodollar (35.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.9 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (16 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the Fed Funds (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-14.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-16.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-13.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (3.6 percent)
Eurodollar (15.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (18.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -983,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -990,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	69.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	49.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-983,761	1,179,506	-195,745
– Gross Longs:	497,428	4,154,503	307,951
– Gross Shorts:	1,481,189	2,974,997	503,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	62.2	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.5	18.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -108,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	79.1	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-108,401	119,440	-11,039
– Gross Longs:	97,128	1,033,784	32,892
– Gross Shorts:	205,529	914,344	43,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.4	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.9	-7.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -521,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -550,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	81.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	57.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-521,508	524,938	-3,430
– Gross Longs:	178,437	1,801,839	192,701
– Gross Shorts:	699,945	1,276,901	196,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	90.1	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-9.0	6.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -652,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -655,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	67.5	8.9
– Net Position:	-652,919	709,058	-56,139
– Gross Longs:	290,221	3,553,482	317,117
– Gross Shorts:	943,140	2,844,424	373,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	92.7	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	12.3	5.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -383,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -39,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -344,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	78.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	65.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-383,602	467,443	-83,841
– Gross Longs:	405,781	3,003,300	343,068
– Gross Shorts:	789,383	2,535,857	426,909
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	77.4	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	12.3	-9.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -113,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -30,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	78.5	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	64.1	17.4
– Net Position:	-113,357	205,988	-92,631
– Gross Longs:	137,564	1,117,231	154,908
– Gross Shorts:	250,921	911,243	247,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.1	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.5	-1.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -169,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	80.3	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	68.4	12.0
– Net Position:	-169,258	142,676	26,582
– Gross Longs:	54,314	962,504	170,139
– Gross Shorts:	223,572	819,828	143,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	61.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	34.7	-14.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -364,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.4	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	60.8	8.5
– Net Position:	-364,894	319,175	45,719
– Gross Longs:	65,262	1,180,797	166,521
– Gross Shorts:	430,156	861,622	120,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	68.9	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-2.2	-6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

07 Jan

Weekly COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (32,399 contracts) with Soybeans (15,120 contracts), Soybean Meal (9,695 contracts), Wheat (3,998 contracts), Live Cattle (3,288 contracts), Coffee (1,892 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,376 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-17,938 contracts), Cocoa (-3,065 contracts), Cotton (-3,250 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,087 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,459,936	6	227,607	4	-249,040	97	21,433	35
Gold	449,393	7	141,666	30	-159,974	70	18,308	26
Silver	131,990	9	30,934	48	-44,211	53	13,277	37
Copper	164,594	13	-4,675	33	-163	67	4,838	53
Palladium	8,456	12	-2,542	10	2,422	87	120	49
Platinum	69,687	38	30,503	50	-33,157	54	2,654	4
Natural Gas	1,031,182	15	-169,813	28	142,142	76	27,671	46
Brent	139,687	4	-26,514	61	23,081	36	3,433	56
Heating Oil	252,205	17	16,613	67	-34,031	35	17,418	59
Soybeans	603,609	7	148,639	57	-111,329	55	-37,310	8
Corn	1,221,434	4	267,532	64	-217,117	41	-50,415	16
Coffee	187,767	3	-812	18	-641	83	1,453	20
Sugar	940,021	45	228,492	72	-273,497	25	45,005	63
Wheat	331,577	19	-32,291	7	37,636	94	-5,345	83

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent), Corn (64 percent) and Soybeans (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (7 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Cotton (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Cocoa (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (60.1 percent)
Sugar (72.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.5 percent)
Soybeans (57.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (51.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.3 percent)
Live Cattle (67.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (37.4 percent)
Cotton (19.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.3 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.4 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.9 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (27 percent) and Soybeans (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (19 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Sugar (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-5 percent) and Cotton (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.3 percent)
Sugar (13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.0 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.2 percent)
Soybeans (25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-19.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-24.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (18.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.3 percent)
Cocoa (12.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.0 percent)
Wheat (-4.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 267,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	44.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	62.1	13.7
– Net Position:	267,532	-217,117	-50,415
– Gross Longs:	359,493	541,890	117,043
– Gross Shorts:	91,961	759,007	167,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	41.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-0.2	-11.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 228,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	40.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	69.6	5.2
– Net Position:	228,492	-273,497	45,005
– Gross Longs:	325,685	381,086	93,920
– Gross Shorts:	97,193	654,583	48,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	24.7	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-10.7	-3.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	51.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	51.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-812	-641	1,453
– Gross Longs:	46,411	96,423	9,429
– Gross Shorts:	47,223	97,064	7,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	83.1	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-16.9	0.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 148,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	47.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	65.5	13.2
– Net Position:	148,639	-111,329	-37,310
– Gross Longs:	195,320	284,335	42,635
– Gross Shorts:	46,681	395,664	79,945
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	54.6	7.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-21.7	-19.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	47.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	69.2	6.0
– Net Position:	70,690	-80,697	10,007
– Gross Longs:	99,018	178,653	32,575
– Gross Shorts:	28,328	259,350	22,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	49.5	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.2	-6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 156,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	78.4	5.6
– Net Position:	156,568	-175,970	19,402
– Gross Longs:	170,218	141,313	42,222
– Gross Shorts:	13,650	317,283	22,820
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-26.2	-4.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.8	29.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	48.3	11.3
– Net Position:	70,489	-63,397	-7,092
– Gross Longs:	129,128	97,353	30,372
– Gross Shorts:	58,639	160,750	37,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	26.5	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-14.7	-16.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	36.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.9	14.0
– Net Position:	43,626	-31,671	-11,955
– Gross Longs:	73,833	68,295	14,524
– Gross Shorts:	30,207	99,966	26,479
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	58.6	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.1	-4.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	50.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	59.1	6.0
– Net Position:	16,459	-17,685	1,226
– Gross Longs:	59,178	99,292	13,198
– Gross Shorts:	42,719	116,977	11,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	80.6	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.8	0.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	43.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	54.9	3.2
– Net Position:	27,838	-31,978	4,140
– Gross Longs:	87,974	121,844	12,987
– Gross Shorts:	60,136	153,822	8,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	55.8	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-13.1	7.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	42.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	31.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-32,291	37,636	-5,345
– Gross Longs:	84,689	141,962	30,370
– Gross Shorts:	116,980	104,326	35,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	93.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	8.3	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

07 Jan

Weekly COT Stock Market Speculator bets led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rdand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as all of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (6,980 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6,738 contracts), Russell-Mini (4,563 contracts), Nikkei 225 (1,633 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (992 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (190 contracts), DowJones-Mini (154 contracts) and the VIX (415 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,010,996	2	-167,301	25	166,552	72	749	27
Nikkei 225	11,889	3	-2,974	63	2,892	44	82	29
Nasdaq-Mini	244,658	39	1,362	76	4,177	29	-5,539	42
DowJones-Mini	79,731	42	-11,891	25	16,039	79	-4,148	19
VIX	297,329	33	-68,000	67	75,329	35	-7,329	56
Nikkei 225 Yen	38,248	17	6,205	53	75	10	-6,280	68

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (76 percent) and the VIX (67 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (63 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (25 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (67.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (25.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (23.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (25.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (24.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (75.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (75.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (30.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (36.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4.5 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-3.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-2.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -68,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	56.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	31.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-68,000	75,329	-7,329
– Gross Longs:	56,713	168,326	18,988
– Gross Shorts:	124,713	92,997	26,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	35.1	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	4.0	-6.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	73.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	65.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-167,301	166,552	749
– Gross Longs:	261,260	1,474,811	232,853
– Gross Shorts:	428,561	1,308,259	232,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	72.4	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.9	0.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	51.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	31.2	19.7
– Net Position:	-11,891	16,039	-4,148
– Gross Longs:	25,248	40,900	11,541
– Gross Shorts:	37,139	24,861	15,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	79.2	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	2.7	18.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	59.6	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	57.9	16.4
– Net Position:	1,362	4,177	-5,539
– Gross Longs:	59,802	145,713	34,484
– Gross Shorts:	58,440	141,536	40,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	29.1	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	0.5	1.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	83.6	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.6	5.0
– Net Position:	-65,361	65,079	282
– Gross Longs:	43,799	363,125	21,973
– Gross Shorts:	109,160	298,046	21,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	69.4	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	3.0	-16.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	52.5	25.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	28.2	24.9
– Net Position:	-2,974	2,892	82
– Gross Longs:	2,609	6,242	3,038
– Gross Shorts:	5,583	3,350	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	44.1	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	5.3	-0.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	91.7	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	91.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-5,996	-9	6,005
– Gross Longs:	16,843	320,467	10,720
– Gross Shorts:	22,839	320,476	4,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	60.4	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-28.8	16.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

06 Jan

Mining Project Could Be Carbon Net Zero

Source: Adam Schatzker (1/5/23)

Such a scenario is possible for this nickel-cobalt asset thanks to its owner’s carbon sequestering process, noted a Research Capital Corp. report.

Improvements to Canada Nickel Co. Inc.’s (CNIKF:OTCMKTS;CNC:TSX.V) proprietary in-process tailings (IPT) carbonation process are “impressive” on a laboratory scale and, thus, bode well for the explorer’s Crawford nickel-cobalt project in Ontario’s Timmins mining camp, reported Research Capital Corp. analyst Adam Schatzker in a Jan. 4 research note.

“If the testing by Canada Nickel is proven,” Schatzker wrote, “the Crawford project could become a major critical minerals producer while being net zero carbon or perhaps sequestering far more carbon than the project produces.”

Testing of the IPT process revealed two significant findings, noted Schatzker. One, the methodology can be applied to the Toronto-based company’s existing process stream to capture and store carbon dioxide (CO2) at an accelerated rate.

“In the near term, we think Canada Nickel will likely announce some form of financing (likely strategic) that will allow the company to eliminate the debt on its balance sheet,” wrote Schatzker.

Two, in the lab, the IPT process can capture a maximum of 37 tons of CO2 per ton of nickel produced. The amount to be captured routinely, however, is likely to be lower, and the nadir is not yet known, Schatzker wrote.

Regardless, extrapolating this result to the much larger scale of the Crawford project suggests the process would sequester a “very significant amount of CO2,” noted Schatzker, more than enough for Crawford to achieve carbon net-zero status, noted Schatzker. The feasibility study of Crawford is now expected in Q2/23.

Ways To Improve the Project

Schatzker pointed out that by integrating the IPT process into Crawford, Canadian Nickel might qualify for and benefit from some type of governmental incentive. One possibility is Canada’s existing refundable investment tax credits that range from 37.5–60% between 2022 and 2030 and from 18.75–30% between 2031 and 2040. These specific credits, Schatzker noted, would greatly improve Crawford’s economics.

“In the near term, we think Canada Nickel will likely announce some form of financing (likely strategic) that will allow the company to eliminate the debt on its balance sheet,” wrote Schatzker.

Also, the analyst purported the IPT process would work best with “a point source of concentrated CO2,” generated through a vehicle such as a natural gas generating plant or a blue hydrogen project.

“This approach,” he added, “while broadening the scope of the overall project, may make it more attractive from a carbon/environmental, social, and governance perspective.”

Research Capital has a Speculative Buy rating and a CA$2.70 per share price target on Canada Nickel, the current share price of which is about CA$1.76.

Disclosures:
1) Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures For Research Capital Corp., Canada Nickel Company Inc., January 4, 2023

Analyst Certification: I, Adam Schatzker, certify the views expressed in this report were formed by my review of relevant company data and industry investigation, and accurately reflect my opinion about the investment merits of the securities mentioned in the report. I also certify that my compensation is not related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Research Capital Corporation publishes research and investment recommendations for the use of its clients. Information regarding our categories of recommendations, quarterly summaries of the percentage of our recommendations which fall into each category and our policies regarding the release of our research reports is available at www.researchcapital.com or may be requested by contacting the analyst. Each analyst of Research Capital Corporation whose name appears in this report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific conclusions or recommendations expressed in this research report.

General Disclosures: The opinions, estimates and projections contained in all Research Reports published by Research Capital Corporation (“RCC”) are those of RCC as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. RCC makes every effort to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and that contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete; RCC makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions which may be contained therein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on its Research Reports or its contents.

Information may be available to RCC that is not contained therein. Research Reports disseminated by RCC are not a solicitation to buy or sell. All securities not available in all jurisdictions.

Company Specific Disclosures: Within the past 12 months, Research Capital has provided investment banking services to the issuer. The Analyst currently owns or is short shares of the issuer, which represents less than 1% of shares outstanding.

Potential Conflicts of Interest: All Research Capital Corporation (“RCC”) Analysts are compensated based in part on the overall revenues of RCC, a portion of which are generated by investment banking activities. RCC may have had, or seek to have, an investment banking relationship with companies mentioned in this report. RCC and/or its officers, directors and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell securities mentioned in our Research Reports as principal or agent. RCC makes every effort possible to avoid conflicts of interest, however readers should assume that a conflict might exist, and therefore not rely solely on this report when evaluating whether or not to buy or sell the securities of subject companies.

RCC USA: Information about Research Capital Corporation’s Rating System, the distribution of our research to clients and the percentage of recommendations which are in each of our rating categories is available on our website at www.researchcapital.ca. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does Research Capital Corporation assume any responsibility or liability. Research Capital Corporation, its directors, officers and other employees may, from time to time, have positions in the securities mentioned herein. Contents of this report cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission of Research Capital Corporation. US Institutional Clients – Research Capital USA Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Research Capital Corporation, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report subject to the terms and limitations set out above. US firms or institutions receiving this report should effect transactions in securities discussed in the report through Research Capital USA Inc., a Broker – Dealer registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

Financial News Metals

06 Jan

Biopharma Co.’s Burn Tissue Removal Product Approved

Source: Swayampakula Ramakanth (1/4/23)

Because of the green light from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, H.C. Wainwright & Co. raised its target price on the developer of this drug, according to a recent report.

Vericel Corp.’s (VCEL:NASDAQ) NexoBrid, a product that removes nonviable burn tissue, was recently approved and given a wider label than expected by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), reported H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Dr. Swayampakula Ramakanth in a Jan. 3 research note. Vericel expects to commercially launch the drug in Q2/23.

“We expect management to provide additional details of the commercial launch in Q1/23 at an investor conference,” Ramakanth wrote.

On the news of the FDA approval, H.C. Wainwright increased its price target on Vericel to US$37 per share from US$35, the analyst pointed out. The biopharma is trading now at about $26.34 per share. The investment bank also reiterated its Buy rating on it.

Approved Uses

Ramakanth reported that NexoBrid is approved for adults with deep partial thickness and/or full-thickness thermal burns.

Patients may apply it to these burns twice within a 24-hour period, first to an area of up to 15% of their body surface area and second to an area of up to 20% of their body surface area.

Milestone Payment Due

NexoBrid is the result of a collaboration between Vericel and MediWound, Ramakanth indicated. Now that the drug is FDA approved, Vericel owes MediWound a milestone payment of US$7.5 million ($7.5M), payable in this first quarter of 2023.

Rationale for a New Target

H.C. Wainwright derived its new price target on Vericel based on a few assumptions, Ramakanth noted. One is that Vericel will initially garner US$6,500 per patient per burn treatment.

Another is that the biopharma will start generating revenue from NexoBrid in Q3/23. The third is that Vericel’s revenue from NexoBrid in 2023 will be an estimated US$8.5M and, by year-end 2026, will be about US$31M.

6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

Disclosures For H.C.Wainwright & Co., MediWound Ltd., January 3, 2023

H.C. Wainwright & Co, LLC (the “Firm”) is a member of FINRA and SIPC and a registered U.S. Broker-Dealer. I, Swayampakula Ramakanth, Ph.D., Arthur He, Ph.D. and Sean Lee , certify that 1) all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all subject securities or issuers discussed; and 2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in this research report; and 3) neither myself nor any members of my household is an officer, director or advisory board member of these companies.

None of the research analysts or the research analyst’s household has a financial interest in the securities of Vericel Corporation and MediWound Ltd. (including, without limitation, any option, right, warrant, future, long or short position). As of December 31, 2022 neither the Firm nor its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of Vericel Corporation and MediWound Ltd.

Neither the research analyst nor the Firm knows or has reason to know of any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. The research analyst principally responsible for preparation of the report does not receive compensation that is based upon any specific investment banking services or transaction but is compensated based on factors including total revenue and profitability of the Firm, a substantial portion of which is derived from investment banking services.

The Firm or its affiliates did not receive compensation from Vericel Corporation for investment banking services within twelve months before, but will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. The Firm or its affiliates did receive compensation from MediWound Ltd. for investment banking services within twelve months before, and will seek compensation from the companies mentioned in this report for investment banking services within three months following publication of the research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for MediWound Ltd. during the past 12 months.

The Firm does not make a market in Vericel Corporation and MediWound Ltd. as of the date of this research report. The securities of the company discussed in this report may be unsuitable for investors depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This report is offered for informational purposes only, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities discussed herein in any jurisdiction where such would be prohibited. This research report is not intended to provide tax advice or to be used to provide tax advice to any person.

H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC does not provide individually tailored investment advice in research reports. This research report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommended in this research report.

H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC’s and its affiliates’ salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. H.C. Wainwright & Co., LLC and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, excluding its analysts, will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options and warrants) thereof of covered companies referred to in this research report.

The information contained herein is based on sources which we believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed by us as being accurate and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data on the company, industry or security discussed in the report. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute the analyst’s judgment as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Securities and other financial instruments discussed in this research report: may lose value; are not insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and are subject to investment risks, including possible loss of the principal amount invested.

Financial News Healthcare Stock Market News

06 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.06

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0602
Prev Close: 1.0521
% chg. over the last day: -0.77 %

Today, the US will publish an important Nonfarm Payroll report. Analysts forecast that the data will show a number of 200,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged. Such data may return strength to the dollar index, as a robust labor market gives the US Federal Reserve more room to act, including bringing the interest rate to the desired level in 2 meetings instead of 3. Conversely, a deterioration in labor market data, on the other hand, would indicate that the US Fed would act more softly, which is negative for the dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0514, 1.0528, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284
Resistance levels: 1.0574, 1.0589, 1.0650, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is trading below the moving averages but above the change of priority, which is a support level of 1.0514. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone but indicates a divergence, which limits the potential for further decline. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0514 on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0574 or 1.0589, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0514 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2053
Prev Close: 1.1910
% chg. over the last day: -1.20 %

The US Federal Reserve said this week that it does not expect a rate cut this year. Considering the fact that the Bank of England has very limited room for maneuver because the economy is already in recession, the interest rate differential between the Bank of England and the US Fed will have a negative impact on the GBP/USD quotes in the medium term. But it should be noted that the market is pricing in future scenarios. The US Fed is halting rate hikes this year, and this pause may play into the hands of the British currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1893, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.1944, 1.2000, 1.2100, 1.2166, 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is divergence in higher time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1893, but with confirmation. It is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.2000, but it is also better with a confirmation in the form of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2100 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 132.55
Prev Close: 133.41
% chg. over the last day: +0.65 %

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) continued unscheduled bond purchases for the fourth straight day as Governor Kuroda confirmed that the Central Bank would continue monetary policy easing to achieve its sustainable price target. The prevailing view among investors is that the BoJ will raise its yield cap even higher or get rid of it altogether if inflation continues to rise in Japan. This situation does not play in favor of the Japanese yen.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 133,45, 132.92, 132.05, 130.58, 129.65
Resistance levels: 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY has changed to bullish. The price is now trading above the moving averages, while the MACD indicator has become positive, indicating buying pressure inside the day. But the divergence indicates that the upside potential is already limited. Buy trades are best considered after a slight correction to support levels of 133.45 or 132.92, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the level of resistance 134.45, provided that there is a reverse reaction or a false breakout, as the level has already been tested.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below the support level of 132.92, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3477
Prev Close: 1.3568
% chg. over the last day: +0.67 %

The fall in oil prices stopped on Thursday, but it was not enough to give optimism to the Canadian dollar as the dollar index rose significantly ahead of the Nonfarm report. Investors are returning to the dollar, with the expectation that the US labor market remains solid, and this will allow the US Federal Reserve to be more decisive in future meetings.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3561, 1.3513, 1.3439, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3604, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is still bullish. The price is trading above the moving averages again. The MACD indicator has returned to positive territory, and buying prevails during the day. Buy trades should be considered from the support at 1.3561 or 1.3513, but with confirmation. Sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3604, but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower timeframes or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3513, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.06:

– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jan

US stock indices are declining ahead of the Nonfarm report. Inflation is expected to decline in Europe

By JustMarkets

The US indices declined on Thursday due to rising Treasury yields as preliminary data from ADP continued to point to a robust labor market, fueling fears of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.16%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 1.47. By the end of the day, all three indices were negative.

Today, the US will release an important Nonfarm Payroll report. Analysts expect the data to show the number of 200,000 jobs while the unemployment rate will remain unchanged. Such data could return strength to the dollar index, which is negative for stock indices. A worsening labor market data, on the other hand, would indicate that the US Federal Reserve will act more softly, which is negative for the dollar and could be a boost to indices. Currently, the Fed is forecasting an increase in the unemployment rate to about 4.6% from the current 3.7% by the end of 2023.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.38%, French CAC 40 (FR40) was 0.22% lower, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.51%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.64% on Thursday.

The inflation report will be released in Europe today. The December CPI figure is expected to be 9.7% annualized, down from the current level of 10.1%. But there is some confidence in the markets that there may be a positive surprise in the form of a stronger decline in inflation. Falling inflation indicators tend to be a growth booster for stock indices.

Gold prices fell sharply on Thursday due to a rising dollar index and US government bond yields. Recession risks and expectations of a strong labor market report are forcing investors to buy dollars. Precious metals are inversely correlated to the dollar index, so a decline in gold and silver usually accompanies a rise in the dollar.

Asian indices were mostly on the rise yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 2.47%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 1.25%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) was down by 0.28% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.06% on the day.

Tokyo’s main Consumer Price Index rose to 3.8% in December, a new 40-year record. This index is a leading indicator of national inflation trends. Rising inflation increases the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will abandon its soft monetary policy this spring.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,808.10 −44.87 (−1.16%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,930.08 −339.69 (−1.02%)

DAX (DE40) 14,436.31 −54.47 (−0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,633.45 +48.26 (+0.64%)

USD Index 105.12 +0.87 (+0.84%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

05 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.05

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0545
Prev Close: 1.0603
% chg. over the last day: +0.55 %

According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers agreed that an extended period of restrictive policy would be needed to cool “unacceptably high” inflation. The Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its rate target to a range of 5% to 5.25%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari predicts the Fed will raise rates to 5.4%, after which the Central Bank will take a long pause. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on February 1, with an 84% probability of such a scenario.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0574, 1.0554, 1.0528, 1.0483, 1.0361, 1.0332, 1.0284
Resistance levels: 1.0640, 1.0664, 1.0695

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages and above the priority change level. The MACD indicator is positive again. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0574 or 1.0554 on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0640 but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0528 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.05:

– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1965
Prev Close: 1.2057
% chg. over the last day: +0.77 %

In the macro outlook for 2023, Goldman Sachs analysts forecast a 1.2% decline in UK real GDP, well below all other G-10 countries. According to the report, the Eurozone and the UK are already in recession, and more stretched-out increases in energy bills will push inflation to higher peaks than in other countries. High inflation will affect real personal income, consumption, and industrial production. Investors are dumping the sterling, believing that a weakening UK economy will prevent the Bank of England from being as hawkish as its peers.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2000, 1.1944, 1.1893, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418
Resistance levels: 1.2100, 1.2166, 1.2218, 1.2308, 1.2431, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. But yesterday, the price rose sharply and approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator became positive, and the buyers dominated inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday timeframes from the support level 1.2000 or 1.1944, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best looked for from the resistance level of 1.2166, but they are also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2100 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.05:

– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 131.01
Prev Close: 132.64
% chg. over the last day: +1.24 %

According to the latest S&P Global PMI data, the decline in Japan’s manufacturing sector worsened in the last month of the year. The Manufacturing Business Activity Index fell from 49.0 to 48.9, the second consecutive month of declining activity. Weak global economic trends led to a steady decline in production and a drop in new orders. Companies have markedly reduced purchases of inputs, and optimism has weakened to its highest level since May.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 130.58, 129.65, 128.85
Resistance levels: 132.92, 133.58, 134.45, 135.88, 137.03, 138.00, 139.09

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. But the price is now trading above the moving averages, while the MACD indicator has become positive, indicating buying pressure inside the day. Buy trades are best considered on intraday time frames from the support level of 130.58, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be looked for from the resistance level of 132.92, provided there is a reversal.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 132.92, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3665
Prev Close: 1.3477
% chg. over the last day: -1.39 %

Global growth concerns, along with growing COVID-19 problems in China (the largest oil importer) caused the black gold price to drop another 5% yesterday. The overall drop in oil over the last 2 days was almost 10%. Considering that the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly correlated with the dollar index and oil prices, the prices of USD/CAD continued to decline sharply on Wednesday. With China increasing its export quotas for petroleum products in the first batch for 2023, indicating expectations of low domestic demand, the oil may continue to fall, which is negative for the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3478, 1.3439, 1.3386, 1.3360, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3530, 1.3604, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is close to changing to bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become deeply negative, and inside the day, sales prevail. A price fixation below 1.3478 will lead to a change of trend to a downtrend. Buy trades should be considered from the support level of 1.3478, but with confirmation, since the level has already been tested. Sell deals are better to look for on the intraday time frames from the resistance level of 1.3530 or 1.3604, but with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower time frames or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3478, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.05:

– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Jan

China hides statistics on real COVID-19 deaths. Britain is on the brink of a deep recession

By JustMarkets

At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.75%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.69% on Wednesday. All three indices closed the day in positive territory.

The Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its rate target to a range of 5% to 5.25%. The markets expect the Fed to raise the rate by 0.25% at its next meeting on February 1. The probability of such a scenario is 84%. Goldman Sachs analysts expect three rate hikes of 25 bps in February, March, and May, with a peak funds rate of 5-5.25%.

The ISM Manufacturing Index has long been considered one of the best indicators of the health of the US economy. The December report showed that the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4 from 49.0. This is the second consecutive month of contraction and the fourth consecutive month below the level of 50. Export orders are down, and new orders are unacceptably low, so there seems little chance of a quick manufacturing recovery.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) gained 2.18%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 2.30%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.89%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.41% on Wednesday.

Consulting firm KPMG predicts that UK real GDP will contract by 1.3% in 2023. KPMG expects the UK Central Bank to raise the bank rate to 4% during the first quarter of this year before taking a pause. The labor market will begin to deteriorate in the first half of 2023, with the unemployment rate reaching 5.6% by mid-2024, meaning an increase of about 680,000 unemployed people. The jump in food and energy prices and higher overall inflation have already reduced the purchasing power of households.

Switzerland’s annual inflation rate has fallen from 3% to 2.8%. Although the inflation rate has declined, this is the highest inflation rate the country has experienced in decades. From 2008 to 2022, the annual average inflation in Switzerland was between 0.6 and 0.7%.

Global growth problems, along with growing COVID-19 problems in China (the biggest oil importer), have caused the price of “black gold” to fall by another 5%. In addition, leading oil exporter Saudi Arabia may further reduce the price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia. The US WTI crude decreased by 5.3% to $72.84 a barrel. British benchmark Brent Crude fell by 5.2% to $77.84 a barrel. The total decline in quotes was almost 10% during the last two days. Considering the fact that China increased export quotas for oil products in the first batch for 2023, which indicates the expectations of low domestic demand, oil quotes may fall even more.

Asian indices traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.45%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.25%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day up 3.22%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 1.04%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Wednesday with a 1.63% gain.

The World Health Organization (WHO) criticized China’s definition of COVID-19 deaths and warned that official statistics do not show the true impact of the outbreak. China’s eagerness to move away from a zero-COVID policy is also alarming in the financial markets. Data on Tuesday showed that manufacturing activity in China contracted for the fifth straight month in December.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,852.97 +28.83 (+0.75%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,269.77 +133.40 (+0.40%)

DAX (DE40) 14,490.78 +309.11 (+2.18%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,585.19 +31.10 (+0.41%)

USD Index 104.24 −0.28 (−0.27%)

Important events for today:

– China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 03:45 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

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