Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 149

Israel and Hamas are close to negotiations. Bank of America believes that it is not yet time to sell the dollar

At Friday’s close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.16% (for the week 0.98%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.04% (up 1.15% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.28% (for the week 0.54%). All 3 indices set new all-time highs on Friday. However, after this week’s sharp rally in technology stocks, there was profit-taking in technology stocks, which led to the NASDAQ (US100) Index being in negative territory.

On Friday, the US dollar index posted its first weekly decline in 2024 as investors took a break from buying the currency after a nearly two-month rally built on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later than previously thought. Investors shifted expectations for the Fed’s first rate cut to June rather than May, significantly reducing the extent of prime rate cuts by the US Central Bank. But, if the US economy remains as strong as it is, the Fed may not be able to go for a rate cut in June. According to analysts at Bank of America (BofA), it is not yet time to sell the dollar, but it will start to weaken in the second quarter, assuming the Fed cuts rates in June and continues to cut rates quarterly. This will cause the euro to strengthen to 1.15 against the US dollar by the end of the year.

New York Fed President Williams said Friday he expects consumer spending growth to slow this year. At some point, it will be appropriate for the Fed to back off from restrictive monetary policy, likely later this year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.28% (week-to-date 2.01%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.70% on Friday (week-to-date 2.89%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.08% on Friday (week-to-date 2.49%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.28% (week-to-date -0.07%).

Frankfurt’s DAX (DE40) and France’s CAC 40 (FR40) rose to new record highs on Friday as investors welcomed dovish remarks from ECB officials. ECB official Centeno said the central bank should remain open to the possibility of a rate cut as early as March, while his counterpart Schnabel expressed confidence that inflation expectations are under control.

On Friday, a survey showed business activity in Germany improved in February, but probably not enough to prevent Europe’s largest economy from sliding into another recession. ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday called relatively favorable fourth-quarter wage growth data encouraging but not enough for the European Central Bank to be confident that inflation has been beaten.

Markets are now pricing in a similar trajectory of future interest rate cuts for the US and Eurozone, forecasting just over three 25 basis point cuts this year. However, Europe is not in the same enviable position as the US. The world’s largest economy has beaten growth expectations, maintains a tight labor market, and consumers appear healthy at first glance. On the other hand, Europe has narrowly avoided a technical recession several times already, escaping with only minimal losses as quarterly GDP growth hovered around zero. Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel cited that the ECB will receive key price data in the second quarter, cementing expectations of a possible rate cut around mid-year. Earlier on Friday, Robert Holzmann confirmed that the ECB usually follows the Fed regarding the timing of rate adjustments, further weakening bets on a rate cut.

Wednesday and Thursday this week will be G20 meetings, which could indirectly impact financial markets. The sessions are held behind closed doors, but many participants talk to the press between meetings. As this body directly sets interest rate policy, news from here could cause increased volatility.

Crude oil and gasoline prices fell on Friday on concerns about energy demand in China. According to RBC Capital Markets, China’s domestic oil demand has been weak, and limited stimulus measures from the government have disappointed. Oil was also pressured by signs that Israel will join peace talks in Paris, which could reduce some geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

US natural gas prices fell over 6% to $1.6 per bbl on Friday, they were driven by oversupply, ample storage, and lower heating demand amid a mild winter. The mild weather has pushed inventories well above average, with the latest EIA data showing inventories 22.3% above the seasonal norm.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 1.51% for the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 2.44% last week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up 2.40%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week negative 0.19%.

According to analysts, if the annual compensation negotiations between major Japanese companies and labor unions, due to conclude in mid-March, result in wage growth of 4.0%, BoJ policymakers may gain confidence in the sustainability of wage growth to pull the trigger and move away from negative rates finally.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,088.80 +1.77 (+0.04%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,131.53 +62.42 (+0.16%)

DAX (DE40) 17,419.33 +48.88 (+0.28%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,706.28 +21.79 (+0.28%)

USD Index 103.96 0.0 (0.0%)

Important events today:

– US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Feb

Trade Of The Week: EURNZD to keep above key support?

By ForexTime

EURNZD rebounds from key support

RBNZ decision + EU data in focus

Trend bearish on D1 but bulls present

Key level of interest at 50-day SMA

Bloomberg model: 75% chance range 1.7384 – 1.7768

After practically erasing its 2024 gains last week, the EURNZD kicked off Monday with renewed bullish force!

Bulls returned to the scene, pushing prices back above 1.7550 ahead of a potentially volatile week for the minor currency pair.

Note: A minor currency pair does not include the USD but includes at least one of the world’s majors.

Looking at the past few weeks, the EURNZD has been on a rollercoaster ride thanks to technical and fundamental forces. Although prices have been edging lower on the weekly charts, key support can be found at 1.7420.

To put things into context, the last time the EURNZD secured a weekly close below this level was back in early January 2023.

On the monthly charts, there is a similar picture with prices waiting for a fresh fundamental spark to trigger the next big move.

With all the above said, here are 3 reasons why this could be a wild week for the EURNZD:

RBNZ rate decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is widely expected to keep its key rates unchanged at 5.50% at its February 28th meeting.

Economic growth unexpectedly contracted in Q3 while there have been consistent signs of cooling price pressures. However, traders are still pricing in a 54% probability of one more rate hike by May 2024 with the first rate cut expected by November. Much attention will be directed towards the monetary policy statement which may provide fresh insight into the central bank’s thinking for 2024.

Should the RBNZ strike a hawkish note and signal one more hike could still be on the cards, this may strengthen the New Zealand Dollar.

Any hint of doves or signs that the next move could be a cut has the potential to weaken the NZD, pushing the EURNZD higher as a result.

Key EU data

It is a week packed with top-tier data from Europe, but the standouts are the Germany and Eurozone February inflation reports.

These incoming inflation reports could influence expectations about when the European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting interest rates in 2024. Traders are currently pricing in a 30% probability of a rate cut by April with a move by the ECB fully priced in by June 2024.

Given how the inflation data and other data from Europe may influence these bets, it could be reflected in the EURNZD.

If overall data from Europe, including sticky inflation numbers, support the argument around the ECB keeping rates higher for longer – this could boost the euro.

Signs of cooling price pressures and soft data may fuel speculation around lower rates in Europe, dragging the euro lower.

Technical forces

The EURNZD remains in a noisy range on the daily charts with support at 1.7420 and resistance around 1.7700. Although the trend since mid-January points south, bulls are lingering in the vicinity.

A strong breakout and daily close above the 50-day SMA at 1.7600 may encourage an incline towards 1.7700 and the 100-day SMA at 1.7760.

Should the 50-day SMA prove to be reliable resistance, this may trigger a decline back towards 1.7420 and 1.7384.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 75% chance that EURNZD will trade within the 1.7384 – 1.7768 over the next week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

24 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Copper, Silver & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (16,755 contracts) with Silver (9,952 contracts), Gold (9,094 contracts), Platinum (6,557 contracts) and Palladium (1,058 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Steel with a total change of -518 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (86 percent) and Silver (54 percent) were the leaders for the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) and Copper (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (39.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (35.6 percent)
Silver (53.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (38.4 percent)
Copper (19.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.0 percent)
Platinum (38.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.0 percent)
Palladium (6.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (86.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.0 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets had negative six-week trends. Copper (-3 percent) and Steel (-5 percent) have the least negative six weeks trends for metals currently.

Platinum (-38 percent) and Gold (-22 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-21.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-34.4 percent)
Silver (-6.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-30.7 percent)
Copper (-2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-40.6 percent)
Platinum (-38.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-68.6 percent)
Palladium (-18.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-32.3 percent)
Steel (-4.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-12.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 140,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 131,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.8	26.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	65.3	5.6
– Net Position:	140,262	-159,411	19,149
– Gross Longs:	211,034	106,419	41,846
– Gross Shorts:	70,772	265,830	22,697
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	60.3	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	23.8	-31.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.3	31.0	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	56.9	10.1
– Net Position:	22,377	-37,945	15,568
– Gross Longs:	57,582	45,507	30,394
– Gross Shorts:	35,205	83,452	14,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	45.9	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	7.3	-10.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -15,942 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 16,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.8	39.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	32.1	7.2
– Net Position:	-15,942	16,208	-266
– Gross Longs:	79,941	89,887	16,243
– Gross Shorts:	95,883	73,679	16,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.4	83.9	16.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	6.4	-27.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.8	22.3	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.1	38.8	3.7
– Net Position:	8,495	-14,471	5,976
– Gross Longs:	52,505	19,626	9,191
– Gross Shorts:	44,010	34,097	3,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	60.1	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.1	31.5	15.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,058 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,511 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.1	56.0	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	5.3	7.4
– Net Position:	-12,453	12,557	-104
– Gross Longs:	4,465	13,858	1,733
– Gross Shorts:	16,918	1,301	1,837
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	10.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.4	97.1	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	18.7	-10.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -518 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	81.3	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	71.5	1.1
– Net Position:	-2,701	2,499	202
– Gross Longs:	3,134	20,682	471
– Gross Shorts:	5,835	18,183	269
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.0	14.1	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.8	-3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

24 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by 5-Year & 2-Year Treasuries

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (82,993 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (78,890 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (39,667 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (31,453 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (18,577 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (12,116 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-218,152 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-20,549 contracts).

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (79 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (56 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (38.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (23.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (15.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (9.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (12.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (44.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (55.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (50.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (79.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (90.6 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-16 percent), the Fed Funds (-6 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-5.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-2.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-1.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-3.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (21.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (9.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-13.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-16.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.2 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 368,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -218,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 586,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	53.5	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	56.9	0.3
– Net Position:	368,390	-362,195	-6,195
– Gross Longs:	1,725,366	5,681,651	28,747
– Gross Shorts:	1,356,976	6,043,846	34,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.3	20.8	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.2	2.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -162,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -141,981 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	70.8	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	62.2	2.1
– Net Position:	-162,530	167,802	-5,272
– Gross Longs:	271,668	1,388,807	35,047
– Gross Shorts:	434,198	1,221,005	40,319
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	65.4	80.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.6	5.4	2.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,109,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 78,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,188,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	80.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	56.3	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,109,124	980,154	128,970
– Gross Longs:	381,752	3,249,920	266,793
– Gross Shorts:	1,490,876	2,269,766	137,823
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	74.3	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-9.4	-0.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,233,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 82,993 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,316,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	64.5	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,233,300	1,146,260	87,040
– Gross Longs:	423,001	5,017,564	386,235
– Gross Shorts:	1,656,301	3,871,304	299,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	85.7	81.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	10.5	-15.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -729,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -760,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	77.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	63.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-729,066	658,453	70,613
– Gross Longs:	477,012	3,724,770	428,886
– Gross Shorts:	1,206,078	3,066,317	358,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.0	79.1	88.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-8.7	2.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -191,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 39,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -230,706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	75.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	62.8	13.1
– Net Position:	-191,039	283,638	-92,599
– Gross Longs:	267,786	1,672,832	196,088
– Gross Shorts:	458,825	1,389,194	288,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.8	88.0	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	7.8	-12.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -94,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,577 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	71.2	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	68.1	11.0
– Net Position:	-94,794	43,899	50,895
– Gross Longs:	185,825	1,008,905	206,932
– Gross Shorts:	280,619	965,006	156,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.5	28.1	85.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-19.9	-6.4

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -322,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -334,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	79.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	61.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-322,760	302,669	20,091
– Gross Longs:	158,142	1,333,231	168,395
– Gross Shorts:	480,902	1,030,562	148,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.7	44.6	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	6.3	-2.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

24 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (14,917 contracts) with Cotton (11,158 contracts), Live Cattle (8,286 contracts), Soybeans (1,463 contracts) and Soybean Meal (14 contracts) also in the plus column for the week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-20,128 contracts) with Wheat (-15,632 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,325 contracts), Coffee (-4,221 contracts), Cocoa (-1,225 contracts) and Sugar (-465 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Softs Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (85 percent) and Cotton (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and Soybean Oil (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.5 percent)
Sugar (23.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.9 percent)
Coffee (84.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (89.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (0.0 percent)
Live Cattle (45.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (36.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.0 percent)
Cotton (80.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (71.9 percent)
Cocoa (59.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (60.3 percent)
Wheat (36.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (47.4 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (67 percent) and Live Cattle (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (34 percent), Coffee (11 percent) and Sugar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-21 percent), Soybean Meal (-19 percent) and Corn (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-11.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (-12.3 percent)
Sugar (8.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.3 percent)
Coffee (10.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.1 percent)
Soybeans (-29.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-33.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (-2.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (4.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-32.5 percent)
Live Cattle (41.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (24.7 percent)
Cotton (67.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (58.9 percent)
Cocoa (-21.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-20.0 percent)
Wheat (-7.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (3.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -266,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -20,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -245,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	46.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	28.5	11.2
– Net Position:	-266,067	282,468	-16,401
– Gross Longs:	282,549	738,256	162,300
– Gross Shorts:	548,616	455,788	178,701
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	11.3	6.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 91,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	54.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	65.8	7.7
– Net Position:	91,690	-97,693	6,003
– Gross Longs:	184,174	461,062	71,375
– Gross Shorts:	92,484	558,755	65,372
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	79.5	10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-4.9	-9.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 55,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.2	36.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.6	3.2
– Net Position:	55,863	-56,600	737
– Gross Longs:	78,875	74,712	7,412
– Gross Shorts:	23,012	131,312	6,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	19.6	23.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-8.8	-18.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -160,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -161,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	59.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	37.8	7.9
– Net Position:	-160,288	171,748	-11,460
– Gross Longs:	100,976	476,364	52,352
– Gross Shorts:	261,264	304,616	63,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	100.0	77.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.6	28.1	10.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,325 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	48.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	43.0	4.8
– Net Position:	-33,941	32,527	1,414
– Gross Longs:	107,910	271,182	27,829
– Gross Shorts:	141,851	238,655	26,415
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	98.8	18.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	2.7	-0.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -45,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	49.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	43.6	6.3
– Net Position:	-45,453	29,150	16,303
– Gross Longs:	87,267	247,497	47,872
– Gross Shorts:	132,720	218,347	31,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	17.7	13.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 61,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	36.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	56.3	12.3
– Net Position:	61,880	-57,126	-4,754
– Gross Longs:	106,475	106,523	30,961
– Gross Shorts:	44,595	163,649	35,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.7	52.9	64.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.5	-41.3	-24.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	36.2	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	41.3	10.6
– Net Position:	16,496	-11,597	-4,899
– Gross Longs:	82,762	81,580	18,963
– Gross Shorts:	66,266	93,177	23,862
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.2	59.4	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-36.3	1.1

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 95,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,935 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.6	33.4	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	72.4	3.1
– Net Position:	95,093	-103,497	8,404
– Gross Longs:	118,288	88,447	16,722
– Gross Shorts:	23,195	191,944	8,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	20.2	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	67.1	-66.4	53.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 48,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,225 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	30.5	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	51.5	4.6
– Net Position:	48,126	-52,597	4,471
– Gross Longs:	89,680	76,177	15,889
– Gross Shorts:	41,554	128,774	11,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.1	39.2	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	14.9	50.3

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -44,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,632 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,007 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	36.8	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	24.3	9.2
– Net Position:	-44,639	49,606	-4,967
– Gross Longs:	124,169	145,807	31,337
– Gross Shorts:	168,808	96,201	36,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	63.6	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	5.3	17.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (11,895 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (246 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-6,515 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,641 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-2,752 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-3,346 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-332 contracts).

Stock Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (80 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nasdaq-Mini (79 percent) and Russell-Mini (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (32 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently followed by the MSCI EAFE-Mini at 34 percent.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (70.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (32.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (93.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (78.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (88.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (67.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (40.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (37.6 percent)

VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for the stock markets this week.

The Russell-Mini (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-17 percent) coming in as the next lowest market for trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (4.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-4.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-15.1 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-0.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-12.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-17.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-10.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-32.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-16.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (-7.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (0.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,966 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	44.8	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	32.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-39,071	43,488	-4,417
– Gross Longs:	74,671	152,747	25,470
– Gross Shorts:	113,742	109,259	29,887
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.9	19.1	73.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-6.0	13.6

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -218,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,778 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	74.1	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	68.0	8.0
– Net Position:	-218,530	143,353	75,177
– Gross Longs:	271,870	1,722,121	262,112
– Gross Shorts:	490,400	1,578,768	186,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.2	59.7	67.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	17.6	-10.4

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 16,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	52.3	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	70.8	12.3
– Net Position:	16,728	-18,898	2,170
– Gross Longs:	32,293	53,584	14,754
– Gross Shorts:	15,565	72,482	12,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	10.8	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	9.5	4.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	51.8	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.3	63.0	12.4
– Net Position:	25,561	-32,432	6,871
– Gross Longs:	92,445	148,596	42,460
– Gross Shorts:	66,884	181,028	35,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	16.9	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	11.1	2.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -24,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 246 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	81.0	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	77.1	5.2
– Net Position:	-24,205	19,727	4,478
– Gross Longs:	59,033	407,623	30,904
– Gross Shorts:	83,238	387,896	26,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	33.1	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.1	33.1	-21.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -332 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	64.9	24.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	52.5	14.9
– Net Position:	-3,720	2,124	1,596
– Gross Longs:	1,852	11,121	4,156
– Gross Shorts:	5,572	8,997	2,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.2	48.8	63.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.5	2.4	10.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	87.9	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	82.1	1.9
– Net Position:	-31,202	25,565	5,637
– Gross Longs:	37,822	386,072	14,132
– Gross Shorts:	69,024	360,507	8,495
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.1	63.3	45.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.7	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

23 Feb

Rising stock indices overshadowed hawkish speeches by US Fed policymakers. Canada is seeing a drop in retail sales

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.18%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped 2.11% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively at 2.96%. The S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) set new record highs, while the NASDAQ (US100) set a weekly high. Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 16% to a record high on Thursday, leading a rally in the chip market after its quarterly earnings results released on Wednesday showed an explosive rise in demand for its artificial intelligence computing hardware.

Hawkish comments from policymakers failed to stop the indices from rising yesterday. Fed spokesman Christopher Waller said Thursday that the Fed should hold off on cutting rates for at least a couple more months to ensure the January inflation report was a fluke and that the Fed is still moving toward its inflation target. He added that acting too soon could squander the central bank’s gains in fighting inflation and cause significant damage to the economy. Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson agreed. He said that the Fed should be on guard against cutting interest rates too much in response to falling inflation because “excessive easing could cause progress in restoring price stability to stall or backslide. In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Harker cautioned against expecting interest rate cuts “right now and immediately” and said the biggest risk is cutting rates too quickly. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 6% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 29% for the April 30-May 1 meeting.

Today, in the US, the minutes from the January FOMC meeting will be released. Investors will be looking for clues on the timing of the first-rate cut. Traders and investors have heard several Fed officials speak since the January meeting, and most preached patience with rates, warning against a premature cut, citing the strength of the US economy. If the minutes strike the same tone, given that the market is still pricing four rate cuts this year while the Fed has signaled only three, the dollar could get a boost. This would hurt stock indices and precious metals.

The latest economic data showed that US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 12,000 to a 5-week low of 201,000, indicating a strengthening labor market versus expectations of a rise to 216,000. The S&P Manufacturing PMI for February rose by 0.8 to a 17-month high of 51.5, stronger than expectations of no change at 50.7. US home sales for January rose by 3.1% to a 5-month high of 4.00 million, stronger than expectations of 3.97 million.

Canadian consumers sharply reduced their spending in January following stronger-than-expected retail purchases late last year. According to Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate released Thursday, retail receipts fell by 0.4%, the biggest decline since March 2023. This followed a 0.9% jump in December. While this data points to strong consumer spending at the end of last year, the sharp decline in January suggests some weakness, especially amid rapid growth in Canada’s population due to immigration. The slowdown in retail consumption is expected to continue as more households renew their mortgages at higher interest rates this year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 1.47%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 1.27% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.31% on Thursday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.29%.

Eurozone January CPI declined to 2.8% y/y from 2.9% y/y in December, matching expectations. Core CPI for January was 3.3% y/y, unchanged from December, which was in line with expectations. The report on the ECB’s January 24-25 meeting was hawkish as policymakers said the risk of cutting interest rates too early is more dangerous than cutting too late. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 3% at the next meeting on March 7 and 29% at the April 11 meeting.

Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023 after two consecutive periods of stagnation. Europe’s largest economy has been hit by rising prices, higher borrowing costs, and weak external demand, especially in the manufacturing and construction sectors.

Asian markets also rose yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.19% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.50%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended Thursday up 1.45%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day positive 0.04%.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 2.9% in January 2024 from 3.7% in December, well below market forecasts of 3.8%. This marked the lowest inflation rate since September 2021.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate in January 2024 stood at 1.5%, unchanged for the third consecutive month and at its lowest level since February 2021. The data was slightly below market forecasts of 1.6% amid declines in the cost of clothing (0.2% vs. unchanged in December) and communication services (2.4% vs. 3.7%). At the same time, prices continued to rise for food (2.0% vs. 2.3%), housing (2.0% vs. 1.6%), and transportation (0.7% vs. 0.3%).

S&P 500 (US500) 4,981.80 +6.29 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,612.24 +48.44 (+0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 17,118.12 +49.69 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,662.51 −56.70 (−0.73%)

USD Index 103.87 −0.13 (−0.13%)

Important events today:

– US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
– German GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Employment Rate (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

22 Feb

NVIDIA reported record earnings and issued an encouraging outlook. Traders are no longer reacting to the Fed’s hawkish bias

By JustMarkets

At yesterday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.13%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.13% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.32%. Liquidation of long positions in high-yielding artificial intelligence (AI) technology stocks weighed on the overall market on Wednesday ahead of NVIDIA Corporation’s (NVDA) earnings release. But NVDA shares jumped more than 10% in late trading after its quarterly earnings beat forecasts, and the chipmaker predicted better-than-expected revenue in the next quarter.

Minutes from the January 30-31 FOMC meeting proved hawkish, as it said most participants noted the risks of easing policy too quickly and stressed the importance of carefully evaluating incoming data to judge whether inflation is steadily easing to 2%. Fed spokeswoman Bowman said yesterday that given the current economic environment, the time for the Fed to cut interest rates is definitely not now.

FRB Richmond President Barkin also noted that recent economic data suggest that price pressures in some sectors are still too great despite an improving overall inflation picture. But despite the hawkish nature of the remarks, markets reacted calmly, suggesting that investors have postponed their rate cut expectations until later.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.29%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.69% on Wednesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.73%. Following their global peers, European equity markets opened higher on Thursday as an encouraging earnings report from chip giant Nvidia boosted investor confidence. Investors also overlooked the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which indicated the central bank would delay interest rate cuts.

British economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics revised their forecast for the Bank of England’s first June rate cut since May. This adjustment is due to the strategic timing of allowing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to consider additional economic data before making a decision. In particular, waiting until June will allow the MPC to review April labor market data, reflecting the impact of the National Living Wage (NLW) increase on wages.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.26% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 2.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 1.57% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.66% on the day.

Nvidia’s share gains spilled to Asian chipmaker stocks as strong results and guidance suggested increased demand for artificial intelligence developments. Japan’s Advantest Corp. and Taiwan’s TSMC (NYSE: TSM), both suppliers to Nvidia, rose by 4.7% and 1.2%, respectively. The rise in shares of leading tech companies led Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index (JP225) to jump 1.8% to a record intraday high of 39,001.50 points, breaking the 1989 peak that preceded the deflation of Japan’s huge speculative bubble in the 1990s. But it should be noted that the Bank of Japan’s ultra-soft stance has been one of the main drivers of the rally in Japanese stocks in recent months.

Broader Asian stocks are trading weaker. After seven straight sessions of gains, Chinese stocks were weak on Thursday, as much of the rebound was driven by heavy-handed government restrictions. Beijing banned institutional traders from building sell positions near the market’s open and close.

Australian economists moved their forecasts for the start of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) easing cycle, reflecting a slight reduction in inflation estimates and bringing them in line with current money market prices. Under the new forecasts, the RBA will cut the money rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.1% in the third quarter of 2024. Judo Bank’s Australian manufacturing PMI fell to 47.7 in February 2024 from 50.1 a month earlier, flash data showed. This was due to a significant drop in new orders, which led to a downturn in production. High interest rates and difficult manufacturing conditions weakened demand, leading to the sharpest decline in output since May 2020. Employment and purchasing activity fell accordingly.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,981.80 +6.29 (+0.13%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,612.24 +48.44 (+0.13%)

DAX (DE40) 17,118.12 +49.69 (+0.29%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,662.51 −56.70 (−0.73%)

USD Index 103.87 −0.13 (−0.13%)

Important events today:

– Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 00:00 (GMT+2);
– Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 14:30 (GMT+2);
– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
– US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand Retail Sales (m/m) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

21 Feb

Drone Co.s Revenue and Income Forecasts Climb Through 2025

Source: Dr. Ashok Kumar (2/20/24)

Current released revenues for Red Cat Holdings Inc. show that the company is doing well in the market, noted a Think Equity research note.

Red Cat Holdings Inc.’s (RCAT:NASDAQ) updated third quarter for 2024’s fiscal year shows that the company’s Teal 2 is doing well in the marketplace, according to Think Equity analyst Dr. Ashok Kumar in a February 20 research note.

The company disclosed initial revenue figures for the three-month period, which ended on January 31, 2024, which represents the third fiscal quarter of 2024. Revenue for those months totaled around US$5.8 million. Additionally, the value of confirmed future orders and contracts currently stands at approximately US$5.1 million. For the following fiscal quarter, ending April 30, 2024, revenue estimates come to about US$7 million, based on current projections. Kumar noted that Red Cat is perceiving regained positive momentum after spending 12 months focused on business development and building relationships in NATO member nations and Saudi Arabia.

Finalist for Army’s Drone Program

Kumar stated that Red Cat was chosen as one of the final contenders for the U.S. Army’s Short Range Reconnaissance Tranche 2 drone program. Separately, an unspecified U.S. federal government agency placed orders with Red Cat for 344 drones amounting to around US$5.2 million total.

He also reported that Red Cat also secured a contract with U.S. Customs and Border Protection for 106 of its Teal 2 drone systems. In addition, Red Cat’s drones received Remote ID certification from the Federal Aviation Administration to operate legally in U.S. airspace.

“Teal2 sUAS is now available through the federal government’s GSA Advantage. Red Cat continues its global expansion by entering Latin America,” Kumar said.

IPO With Unusual Machines

Red Cat also shared that Unusual Machines bought two subsidiaries, Rotor Riot and Fat Shark, from the company for a total price of US$20 million. The payment was structured as US$1 million in cash upfront, a US$2 million promissory note from Unusual Machines to Red Cat promising future payment, and US$17 million worth of Unusual Machines stock, which at the current valuation equals 4,250,000 shares. After finalizing this acquisition deal, Red Cat will hold a 48.66% ownership stake in Unusual Machines based on the outstanding common shares of Unusual Machines.

Midterm Revenue and Catalysts

For the upcoming fourth quarter financial period, the projected revenue goal is US$7 million. Achieving that quarterly target would amount to an annual revenue pace of US$28 million within only nine months of introducing the Teal 2 drone system to market. Looking even further ahead to the 2025 fiscal year, current forecasts have estimated annual revenue of US$35 million based on current business performance and expected further expansion.

“We forecast total revenues to grow from US$9.9 million in fiscal 2023 to US$35.0 million in fiscal 2025. Over the same period, we expect operating income to improve from US$27 million to US$9 million,” Kumar wrote.

Kumar pointed out that some primary catalysts for the rest of 2024 will be to increase revenue, improve gross profit margins, and keep operating expenses under control. With the recent influx of capital from an initial public offering with Unusual Machines that raised US$1 million, Kumar believes that the company now has the necessary funding to work toward achieving those key objectives over the course of the next year.

With this, Kumar gave Red Cat Holdings Inc. a Buy rating with a US$5 target price.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Red Cat Holdings Inc.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Disclosures for Think Equity, Red Cat Holdings Inc., February 20, 2024

Analyst Certification The analyst, Ashok Kumar, responsible for the preparation of this research report attests to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.

Financial Interests The analyst, Ashok Kumar, has no financial interest in the debt or equity securities of the subject company of this report. Further, no member of his household has any financial interest in the securities of the subject company. Neither the analyst, nor any member of his household, is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the issuer(s) or has another significant affiliation with the issuer(s) that is the subject of this research report. The analyst has not received compensation from the subject company. The CEO of ThinkEquity, LLC., owns shares in the company. At the time of this research report, the analyst does not know, or have reason to know, of any other material conflict of interest.

Company Specific Disclosures ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity, LLC or an affiliate has a client relationship with and has received compensation from this subject company Red Cat Holdings, Inc. in the last 12 months.

ThinkEquity, LLC ThinkEquity, LLC is a member of FINRA and SIPC. ThinkEquity expects to receive or intends to seek investment banking business from the subject company in the next three months. ThinkEquity does not make a market in the securities of the subject company of this report at the time of publication. ThinkEquity does not hold a beneficial ownership of more than 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company. This report is for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While the information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we have not independently verified the information and we do not represent or guarantee that the report is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Any references or citations to, or excerpts from, third-party information or data sources (including, but not limited to, Bloomberg and Capital IQ) do not and are not intended to provide financial or investment advice and are not to be relied upon by anyone as providing financial or investment advice. Based on public information available to us, prices and opinions expressed in this report reflect judgments as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The securities covered by or mentioned in this report involve substantial risk and should generally be purchased only by investors able to accept such risk. This research report and the securities mentioned herein, some of which may not be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, are intended only for Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), as defined under Rule 144A. Any opinions expressed assume that this type of investment is suitable for the investor.

Financial News Stock Market News

21 Feb

Canada is seeing a sharp decline in inflation. SNB continues to increase foreign exchange reserves

By JustMarkets

The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.17% at the close of the stock market yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.92%. The broad market was under pressure yesterday as weakness in chip maker stocks led to a decrease in the technology sector. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 5%, leading to a decline in technology sector stocks ahead of Wednesday’s fourth-quarter earnings results.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to “neutral.” Airbnb (ABNB) is down more than 3% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy”. Caterpillar (CAT) is down 1% after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to “neutral” from “buy”. Walmart (WMT) is up over 4%, leading the Dow Jones Industrials, after the company reported Q4 comparable sales rose by 3.9%, which was stronger than the consensus forecast of 3.2%.

Canada’s annual inflation rate for January 2024 fell to 2.9%, the lowest since June, from 3.4% the previous month and well below market expectations of 3.3%. The result marked a sharp reversal from the significant reading in December, renewing hopes for disinflation in the Canadian economy and strengthening the case for more easing measures from the Bank of Canada (BoC) on rising growth concerns.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.14%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) was up 0.34%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped 0.94% on Tuesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.12%.

The latest ECB report showed that Eurozone wage growth slowed to 4.5% in the final quarter of last year from a record 4.7% in the previous period. This confirmed market expectations that while wage growth has peaked, it is still well above the level consistent with 2% inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently said she prefers to wait for the outcome of the first quarter wage agreement before considering a rate cut. Other policymakers have supported the cautious sentiment for monetary easing, suggesting that rate cuts are possible this year but refraining from giving a specific timeline for such moves.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may start cutting its benchmark discount rate in the year’s first half, including possibly a March cut. The SNB also increased its foreign exchange reserves for the second consecutive month in January, indicating a recovery from a prolonged decline over the past two years that has seen reserve levels hit seven-year lows.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.28% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.03%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.57% on Tuesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.08% on the day. Hong Kong stocks (HK50) soared to a seven-week high of 16,615 in Wednesday morning trading, rising for a second straight session, amid rising bets that China’s central bank may go for more policy easing this year after a record cut in the main 5-year lending rate on Tuesday, as policymakers seek to support economic growth. Economists say China’s increased stimulus could boost its growth and positively impact the global economy.

Japan’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to JPY1,758.311 billion in January 2024 from JPY3,506.43 billion in the same period of the previous year. Exports rose by 11.9% Y/Y to JPY7,332.65 bln, the highest in 14 months, helped by strong demand from the US and China. Meanwhile, imports fell 9.6% YoY to JPY9,090.97 bln, marking the tenth consecutive month of decline driven by lower energy prices. The Tankan sentiment index for manufacturers in Japan fell sharply to negative 1 in February 2024 from plus 6 in January, adding to fears of a further economic slowdown.

Australian wages rose by 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, beating forecasts for a 4.2% increase and the highest since the first quarter of 2009. Wage growth tends to be accompanied by rising inflation figures. This could eventually lead to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) holding rates for longer than forecast.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,975.51 −30.06 (−0.60%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,563.80 −64.19 (−0.17%)

DAX (DE40) 17,068.43 −23.83 (−0.14%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,719.21 −9.29 (−0.12%)

USD Index 104.00 −0.08 (−0.07%)

Important events today:

– Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Wage Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+2);
– US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Financial News – Page 149

After practically erasing its 2024 gains last week, the EURNZD kicked off Monday with renewed bullish force!

RBNZ rate decision

Key EU data

Technical forces

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 75% chance that EURNZD will trade within the 1.7384 – 1.7768 over the next week.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper, Silver & Gold

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Bonds & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Cotton

Softs Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

COTTON Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

COCOA Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

WHEAT Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

Stock Net Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

VIX & MSCI EAFE-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures: