Archive for Financial News – Page 148

03 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Corn & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were a bit higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (33,463 contracts) with Lean Hogs (12,790 contracts), Sugar (11,564 contracts), Wheat (7,658 contracts), Cotton (7,212 contracts) and Live Cattle (4,119 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-21,367 contracts) with Soybeans (-30,944 contracts), Coffee (-4,163 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,985 contracts) and Cocoa (-6,938 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cotton & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (86 percent) and Coffee (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (54 percent), Cocoa (52 percent) and Live Cattle (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Oil (0 percent), Soybean Meal (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and Corn (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (4.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.0 percent)
Sugar (27.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (23.8 percent)
Coffee (80.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (84.7 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (7.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.8 percent)
Live Cattle (50.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (45.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (53.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.2 percent)
Cotton (85.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (80.3 percent)
Cocoa (52.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (59.1 percent)
Wheat (41.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (36.5 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (68 percent) and Live Cattle (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (45 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Soybeans (-22 percent) and Soybean Oil (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-1.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-11.5 percent)
Sugar (15.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.2 percent)
Coffee (2.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (10.5 percent)
Soybeans (-22.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-27.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (-7.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-22.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-17.6 percent)
Live Cattle (46.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (41.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (33.7 percent)
Cotton (68.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (67.1 percent)
Cocoa (-29.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-21.2 percent)
Wheat (6.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -232,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -266,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.744.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.127.911.2
– Net Position:-232,604250,628-18,024
– Gross Longs:295,676670,777151,100
– Gross Shorts:528,280420,149169,124
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.195.994.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.61.16.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.952.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.365.97.1
– Net Position:103,254-110,9527,698
– Gross Longs:187,869431,22766,010
– Gross Shorts:84,615542,17958,312
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.975.413.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-9.0-20.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,700 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.038.03.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.363.13.2
– Net Position:51,700-52,424724
– Gross Longs:75,33079,6907,361
– Gross Shorts:23,630132,1146,637
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.423.823.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-1.3-14.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -191,232 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -30,944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.960.57.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.732.18.9
– Net Position:-191,232202,950-11,718
– Gross Longs:92,361432,41851,829
– Gross Shorts:283,593229,46863,547
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.076.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.120.117.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,926 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.648.25.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.041.15.1
– Net Position:-38,92637,2891,637
– Gross Longs:107,981252,66028,265
– Gross Shorts:146,907215,37126,628
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.019.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.16.7-2.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -66,820 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.652.89.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.140.57.5
– Net Position:-66,82056,23810,582
– Gross Longs:80,930242,67444,952
– Gross Shorts:147,750186,43634,370
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.824.7-30.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,999 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.634.710.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.054.611.9
– Net Position:65,999-60,465-5,534
– Gross Longs:114,745105,81130,732
– Gross Shorts:48,746166,27636,266
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.148.860.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.6-46.2-28.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,286 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.433.88.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.544.010.2
– Net Position:29,286-24,985-4,301
– Gross Longs:94,03782,65820,760
– Gross Shorts:64,751107,64325,061
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.747.664.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.0-49.77.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 102,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,093 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.730.36.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.171.82.8
– Net Position:102,305-112,88110,576
– Gross Longs:129,75082,40718,183
– Gross Shorts:27,445195,2887,607
– Long to Short Ratio:4.7 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.713.880.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:68.4-69.368.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 41,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.931.06.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.352.33.9
– Net Position:41,188-46,8715,683
– Gross Longs:81,55268,54414,358
– Gross Shorts:40,364115,4158,675
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.045.060.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.625.630.3

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.036.87.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.925.98.8
– Net Position:-36,98140,756-3,775
– Gross Longs:123,166137,34028,974
– Gross Shorts:160,14796,58432,749
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.857.049.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.7-9.916.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
02 Mar

GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned

“Every major peak gets cinematic treatment”

By Elliott Wave International

Back in early 2021, the meme stock craze was going strong.

As you’ll recall that craze was all over the news and revolved around favorite stocks promoted by largely novice traders via social media. This January 27, 2021 New York Times news item sums up the frenzy surrounding one of those stocks:

‘Dumb Money’ Is on GameStop, and It’s Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game

GameStop shares have soared 1,700 percent as millions of small investors, egged on by social media, employ a classic Wall Street tactic to put the squeeze — on Wall Street.

A few days later, after GameStop shares had fallen hard, the February 2021 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which provides analysis of major U.S. financial markets, offered this warning:

Every major peak gets cinematic treatment and the current one is no exception. … The Wall Street Journal reported, “Netflix, MGM Race to Produce Projects About GameStop Saga.”

After that big decline in Gamestop shares in late January and early February 2021, the share price did bounce back, but has since fallen dramatically. Even so, some traders are not fazed, which is testimony to the high degree of overall optimism toward financial markets.

The recently published February Elliott Wave Financial Forecast provides an update with this chart and commentary:

The sustained public tolerance for falling prices is well illustrated by the resilience of retail demand for GameStop shares. GME is down 88% from its intraday high of $120.75 on January 28, 2021. But the faith in GME as a vehicle for wealth continues. … On January 22, TheStreet’s “meme maven” columnist added a host of “Reasons to Buy GameStop.” There’s just no quenching the demand for GME shares.

Again, this speaks to the high degree of optimism toward the market as a whole and our latest analysis of the main U.S. stock indexes is something you need to see for yourself.

As you might imagine, the main way Elliott Wave International analyzes financial markets is by employing the Elliott wave model.

If you’d like to learn the details of the Wave Principle, read Frost & Prechter’s definitive text on the subject, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from this Wall Street classic book:

In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or “waves,” that recur in market price data. He named, defined and illustrated these patterns and their variations. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns of the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle.

Would you like to read the entire book for free?

All that’s required for free access to the online version of the book is a Club EWI membership. Club EWI is the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community and is free to join. Members enjoy complimentary access to a wealth of Elliott wave insights regarding financial markets, investing and trading.

Follow this link to read the book for free: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline GameStop (GME): 88% Shellacking Yet No Lesson Learned. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News
01 Mar

Semiconductor stocks continue to rally. The first interest rate cuts by central banks are expected in June

By JustMarkets 

On Thursday, stock indices posted moderate gains on signs that inflationary pressures continue to ease. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.52% at yesterday’s stock market close. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed the day positively by 0.90%. In addition, other Fed-friendly reports on Thursday on weekly jobless claims, January MNI Chicago PMI, and January home sales data lowered bond yields and supported equities.

The US core PCE deflator for January declined to 2.8% y/y from 2.9% y/y in December, which matched expectations and was the slowest rate of increase in 2 years. US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 215,000, indicating a weak labor market vs. expectations of 210,000. US personal spending in January rose by 0.2% m/m, matching expectations. Personal income for January increased by 1.0% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.4% mom and the largest increase in a year. Chicago PMI for February unexpectedly declined 2.0 to 44.0, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to 48.0 and the sharpest rate of contraction in 7 months. January US home sales unexpectedly fell by 4.9% m/m, which was weaker than expectations for a 1.5% m/m increase and was the steepest decline in the last 5 months.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said yesterday that if inflation continues to decline as he expects, it will probably be appropriate for the Fed to start easing rates this summer. Currently, markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut of 3% at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 21% at the next meeting on April 30-May 1.

Shares of chip companies rose on Thursday after Citigroup said it remains optimistic about semiconductor stocks given solid demand. The artificial intelligence market continues to grow as businesses and organizations actively buy chips for artificial intelligence.

Salesforce (CRM) stock is up more than 3%, leading the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) higher after Raymond James raised its price target on the shares from $300 to $380. HP Inc (HPQ) closed down more than 1% after reporting first-quarter net revenue of $13.19 billion, weaker than the consensus forecast of $13.58 billion.

The Bank of Canada is forecast to cut the overnight interest rate in June. The timing roughly coincides with when the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will cut their first interest rate.

Equity markets in Europe traded yesterday without a single dynamic. The German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.44%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.34% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.67%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.07%.

German retail sales for January unexpectedly fell by 0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of 0.5% m/m. German unemployment for February rose by 11,000, showing a weaker labor market than expected 5,000. The unemployment rate for February was unchanged at 5.9%, weaker than expectations of 5.8%. The German Consumer Price Index (EU harmonized) for February declined to 2.7% y/y from 3.1% y/y in January, which was in line with expectations.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann said yesterday that he sees no significant negotiations on lowering borrowing costs before the ECB’s June meeting. Swaps are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a 25 bps ECB rate cut to 5% at the next meeting on March 7 and 22% at the April 11 meeting.

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday on expectations that OPEC+ will extend next week’s oil production cuts by about 2 million bpd beyond March. In addition, ongoing attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial ships in the Red Sea have disrupted Middle Eastern oil supplies and bolstered US physical oil markets as foreign buyers turn to US crude supplies to avoid transportation problems.

Natural gas prices increased on Thursday after the EIA’s weekly natural gas inventories fell by 96 billion cubic feet, more than the expected 85 billion cubic feet.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.87%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.70% on Thursday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 0.29% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.96% on the day. Most Asian stocks extended gains on Friday, following strong overnight gains on Wall Street, with Japanese and Australian markets hitting record highs amid growing hopes of an interest rate cut in 2024. Chinese stocks also rose slightly, even as purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data showed that business activity in China remained sluggish in February. China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month, dragging down overall business activity, even though a rise in consumer spending during the New Year holiday period helped non-manufacturing businesses.

Yesterday, Bank of Japan (BoJ) board official Takata said the 2% price target is finally approaching, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate campaign. But earlier today, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said it was too early to conclude that inflation was close to sustainably reaching the 2% inflation target and emphasized the need to scrutinize more data on the wage outlook. The divergent views underscore the difficulties within the Bank.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,096.27 +26.51 (+0.52%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,996.39 +47.37 (+0.12%)

DAX (DE40)  17,678.19 +76.97 (+0.44%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,630.02 +5.04 (+0.07%)

USD Index  104.12 +0.17 (+0.16%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 02:05 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 03:10 (GMT+2);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Flash Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
29 Feb

AI, Digital Wallet Firm Picked for Sports Accelerator Program

Source: Streetwise Reports  (2/26/24)

Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital wallet provider firm Fobi AI Inc. announced it is one of ten companies picked from 1,500 applicants for the Comcast NBCUniversal SportsTech Accelerator program. Find out why one technical analyst says this company’s stock is about to break out into a bull market.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and digital wallet provider firm Fobi AI Inc. (FOBI:TSX) announced it is one of ten companies picked from 1,500 applicants for the Comcast NBCUniversal SportsTech Accelerator program.

The six-month program gives company officials opportunities to collaborate with leading sports brands like NBC Sports, NASCAR, the Premier League, the PGA Tour, Sky Sports, Comcast Spectator, and U.S. Olympic sports organizations, Fobi AI said.

Since it started in 2021, alumni of the SportsTech program have achieved 132 pilots, partnerships, and commercial deals with consortium partners.

“It’s an extraordinary opportunity for us to not only enhance our visibility but also establish direct connections within the partner network,” Fobi AI Chief Executive Officer Rob Anson said.

Fobi AI leverages AI, automation, and analytics to deliver data-driven, real-time applications to deliver speed, connectivity, and interoperability, according to its investor presentation. With recent acquisitions, the company is expanding its presence in the rapidly expanding digital wallet market dominated by companies like Apple and Google.

“But you certainly wouldn’t think so to look at its stock price and, like it or not, these wallets look set to be the future and to be introduced rapidly,” wrote Technical analyst Clive Maund on February 20.

“But you certainly wouldn’t think so to look at its stock price and, like it or not, these wallets look set to be the future and to be introduced rapidly,” wrote Technical analyst Clive Maund on February 20.

Over the past year, Fobi AI’s share price has decreased 83% from CA$0.51 on Feb. 24, 2023, to CA$0.085 on February 23, 2024.

However, Maund said that based on its one-year arithmetic chart, “factors have been in play for many weeks, suggesting that a breakout into a new bull market is incubating, and, furthermore, that it is likely to happen soon.”

Allowing Co.’s to Align Solutions With Potential Partners

In the SportsTech Accelerator program, the company will work with SportsTech advisors and learn market strategy, commercial business alignment, and adaptive business modeling.

“Every facet of our decision-making process aims to unlock startups that can become ‘scale-ups’ ready to impact the world of sports,” said Jenna Kurath, vice president of startup partnerships and head of Comcast NBCUniversal SportsTech. “The SportsTech program focuses not only on tackling complex business challenges for a vast cross-section of some of the world’s most recognized sports brands, but it additionally prepares founders to build sustainable businesses.”

The program is set to begin March 4 in Florida with behind-the-scenes looks at Universal Studios Florida, NASCAR’s Daytona International Speedway, and coverage of the PGA Tour and other sporting events.

This will allow the companies “to identify how to align their technology solutions to the business and operational needs of partners,” Comcast NBCUniversal noted in a release.

“The capstone of the program will take place at Rally Innovation in Indianapolis on August 27-28, 2024, where this year’s founders will showcase their tech innovations, putting a spotlight on their scale-up traction during the program to garner new business opportunities across the broader sports industry,” the release noted.

The Catalyst: Growth of Sectors Here to Stay

The AI and mobile wallet sectors are here to stay and are expected to be the focus of big growth. The company’s investor presentation said AI will generate US$15 trillion in revenue by 2030 and increase business efficiency by 40%. Four out of five companies say AI is a top priority in their business strategy.

By 2026, about 5.2 billion mobile wallet passes will be in use, it said. About 85% of wallet passes are never deleted (while 71% of apps are), and four out of five customers abandon transactions that require apps.

The continued emergence of digital credential digital wallet solutions is “at the forefront of everything that we hear about today,” Anson said in Fobi AI’s conference call with the media about its earnings in January.

Anson said the company operates in 150 countries and provides more than 100 million digital wallets.

“We’ve seen tremendous growth, not just in, of course, the scale of the product, but obviously now from international support with our acquisitions that we’ve made to date and the addition of some of our international tech resource team,” Anson said.

Last year, the company acquired the leading Spanish digital wallet agency Wallet-Com and the leading European digital wallet company Passwortks SA.

“This agreement with Wallet-Com not only marks Fobi’s fifth wallet pass acquisition but also the strategic acquisition of a leading digital wallet agency that will help reinforce Fobi’s strength and scale as a global wallet pass leader,” Anson said when the Wallet-Com transaction was announced. “This collaboration not only broadens our global footprint but also opens doors to exciting new prospects and innovative opportunities.”

Analyst: ‘Upside Breakout Soon’

The mobile wallet market was valued at about US$7.42 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.3% from 2023 to 2022, Grand View Research said in a report.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a positive effect on the market, researchers said.

“The pandemic pushed digital transactions and mobile payments across the world,” the report said. “It has accelerated the growth of the e-commerce industry toward new customers, firms, and types of products. For instance, according to the Census Bureau’s Annual Retail Trade Survey (ARTS), in the U.S., sales in the e-commerce sector surged by 43% or (US$)244.2 billion in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.”

Maund agreed that the AI and mobile wallet industries were huge growth markets. In the company’s one-year chart, the downtrend of Fobi AI’s stock has “morphed into a bullish Falling Wedge,” and downside momentum has eased during that period, he noted.

The third bullish factor is the buildup in upside volume since the end of 2023.

“This quite aggressive and persistent buying has been draining off the supply at these levels at quite a rapid rate, setting the stage for an upside breakout soon,” Maund wrote.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Fobi AI Inc. (FOBI:TSX)

Retail: 80%
Insiders & Management: 20%
80%
20%
*Share Structure as of 2/26/2024

 

That tilt toward upside volume has also driven the Accumulation line higher, the analyst said.

“These factors together make a strong case for an upside breakout soon,” Maund wrote.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to the company, about 20% is held by insiders, including the CEO Anson, who has 4.35% personally and 15.45% through Fobisuite Technologies Inc. The rest is with retail.

Fobi AI’s market cap is CA$15.9 million, with 176.65 million shares outstanding, and 141.87 million free floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.58 and CA$0.07.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Fobi AI Inc. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Fobi AI Inc.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Contributor Disclosures:

  1. Author Certification and Compensation: [Clive Maund of clivemaund.com] is being compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, for writing this article. Maund received his UK Technical Analysts’ Diploma in 1989. The recommendations and opinions expressed in this content accurately reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the designated securities discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks can only be construed as a solicitation to buy and sell securities when they are subject to the prior approval and endorsement of a Registered Securities Advisor operating in accordance with the appropriate regulations in your area of jurisdiction.

Financial News Stock Market News
29 Feb

The German Index set an all-time high. Bitcoin rate reached 2-year high

By JustMarkets

The US stock indices posted moderate losses on Wednesday. Pressure to liquidate long positions from recent record highs weighed on the stock market ahead of Thursday’s PCE deflator report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.06% at the stock market close yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.17%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed the day negative 0.55%. On Wednesday, the hawkish comments from Fed members Williams, Bostic, and Collins also hamstrung the indices when they said they favored a wait-and-see stance before cutting interest rates. Markets now expect the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged in March and May, but there is more than a 50% chance of a rate cut in June.

Wednesday’s Q4 US GDP report was mixed for the dollar, with Q4 GDP revised downward (from 3.3% to 3.2% y-o-y) but still pointing to a robust economy.

The bitcoin exchange rate (BTC/USD) rose more than 6% on Wednesday, hitting a 2-year high following the successful launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US. The ETFs have raised more than $6 billion since they began trading on January 11, with some analysts warning of a looming supply shortage as new coins from bitcoin miners fail to keep up with demand. Additional demand has been sparked by the expected April 20 halving of bitcoin issuance. About 80% of the bitcoin supply has not changed hands in the past six months, which could exacerbate the situation and contribute to a further rise in bitcoin prices. Additionally, speculation is growing around the possible approval of spot ETFs, potentially driving higher Ethereum (ETH/USD) prices.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.25%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.08% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.45%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.76%.

On Wednesday, Frankfurt’s DAX (DE40) Index, outperforming European benchmarks on the back of strong corporate earnings, held on to early gains and hit a new record. Puma shares closed by 5% higher after meeting full-year targets and announcing a new brand campaign. Meanwhile, technology stocks came under pressure after Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASM International reported lower fourth-quarter earnings, sending Infineon down 4% and SAP down 1.5%.

ECB Governing Council representative Kazaks said yesterday that the ECB should not be in a hurry to cut interest rates as there is a risk that tighter measures will be needed later. His colleague, ECB Governing Council representative Kazimir, added that the ECB has no reason to rush interest rate cuts and prefers June as the first rate cut. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 5% at the next meeting on March 7 and 32% at the next meeting on April 11.

The latest EIA report showed a larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories of 4.199 million barrels last week, although much smaller than the 8.428 million reported by the API. The rise in inventories is mainly attributed to a slowdown in processing crude oil into finished products at refineries. Looking ahead, investors are eagerly anticipating the upcoming OPEC+ meeting in March to discuss extending production cuts. Producers will likely stick to voluntary production limits until at least the June ministerial meeting to help stabilize the market. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as well as ongoing Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, have increased the risk premium in oil prices.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.08% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.24% on Wednesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.51% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.03% on the day. The Hang Seng Index (HK50) opened higher on Thursday, reversing a decline after removing measures to curb housing demand as part of the 2024 budget, including the complete abolition of housing levies. Wednesday’s GDP report showed the city’s economy grew by 4.3% y/y in Q4 2023, the highest growth in 2 years, on the back of a rebound in inbound tourism and a recovery in private consumption.

Fresh data showed that Australian retail sales rose by 1.1% month-on-month in January 2024, reversing an upwardly revised 2.1% drop in the previous month but falling short of market consensus, which expected a 1.5% rise.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,069.76 −8.42 (−0.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,949.02 −23.39 (−0.06%)

DAX (DE40)  17,601.22 +44.73 (+0.25%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,624.98 −58.04 (−0.76%)

USD Index  103.95 +0.01 (+0.01%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • –– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 20:15 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
29 Feb

Target Thursdays: USDJPY, EURNZD & Silver reach targets!

By ForexTime 

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

  • USDJPY bears bag over 100 pips
  • EURNZD rallies almost 400 pips
  • Silver down 2.5% this week

 

    1) USDJPY bears strike key support level   

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As discussed in our Week Ahead article on Friday, February 23rd:

“Should bulls get cold feet below 150.90, this may trigger a selloff towards 149.70 and potentially lower.”

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

The USDJPY was trapped within a range with bulls lacking the confidence to breach 150.90.

Hawkish remarks by a BoJ official on Thursday morning boosted the Japanese Yen, triggering a selloff as a result.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who shorted the USDJPY last Friday from the intraday high would have gained 107 pips!

The negative momentum briefly took prices below the 149.70 support with more volatility expected ahead of the US PCE report this afternoon.

 

    2) EURNZD charges through all bullish targets

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

As written in our Trade of The Week article on Monday, February 26th:

“A strong breakout above the 50-day SMA at 1.7600 may encourage an incline towards 1.7700 and the 100-day SMA at 1.7760”.

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

After kicking off the week on a positive note, the EURNZD exploded higher on Wednesday following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) dovish pivot.

The currency pair charged through the 50- and 100-day SMA with the momentum taking prices to the 200-day SMA which was 400 pips away from the key 1. 7240 support!

 

  • How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakout above 1.7600 would have been rewarded 160 pips.

 

    3) Silver widens gap as negative momentum builds

  • Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our technical article covering Silver on Tuesday, February 27th we discussed the near-term outlook for the precious metal.

“XAGUSD bears may look for a close below the 100 Fibonacci level at $22.614 with a retest and breach of $22.565 as a possible sign of a decline to lows below $22.437“

 

  • What happened since TP was published?

Silver prices were pressured by a stabilizing dollar and overall bearish price action with the metal shedding roughly 2.5% since the start of the week.

 

  • How much in potential profits?

177 points for traders who shorted silver at $22.614 and exited at $22.437.

At the time of writing silver remains under pressure and could be exposed to further volatility ahead of the incoming US PCE report.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
28 Feb

The RBNZ kept the interest rate on hold and took a less hawkish stance. Inflation in Australia is at two-year lows

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.25%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed the day positively by 0.37%.

Hawkish comments from the Fed supported the dollar and had a limited impact on the indices. Fed spokeswoman Bowman said that inflation will continue to decline if interest rates remain at current levels, but “it is not yet time” to start cutting rates. Kansas City Fed President Schmid also said: “With inflation running above target, labor markets tight, and demand showing considerable momentum, my view is that there is no need to preemptively adjust the stance of monetary policy.”

Strong earnings support equities: data from Bloomberg Intelligence showed that Q4 earnings for companies reporting on the S&P 500 rose 7.7% year-over-year, well above forecast (1.2%) and the highest since Q4 2021. About 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Tuesday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.76%, French CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.23% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.24%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.02%. Key economic data for Europe will be released later this week.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $78.5 per barrel on Wednesday, retreating slightly from a one-month high as part of a likely technical correction. At the same time, investors continued to evaluate various supply and demand factors. Oil prices have gained around 3% over the past two sessions amid ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and signs of a strengthening US physical market. The outcome of ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas remains highly uncertain, while Houthi rebels in Yemen continue to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, and there are also reports of attacks on telecommunications cables that lie at the bottom of the Red Sea. Investors are awaiting OPEC’s March decision to extend production cuts next quarter. According to preliminary reports, OPEC+ will consider extending voluntary oil production cuts in the second quarter and may extend them until the end of the year. This would be a bullish signal for oil.

We continue to watch the natural gas market. Producers’ efforts to combat oversupply by cutting production support the price, with companies such as Chesapeake Energy cutting their 2024 production plans by about 30%. Other industry leaders, including Antero Resources, Comstock Resources, and EQT, have also reduced drilling and production in response to market conditions. Natural gas prices rose to $1.8/MMBtu yesterday.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.06% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 0.75% on Tuesday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 1.09% on the day, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended yesterday positive 0.57%.

On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index settled at its highest level in almost three months as Beijing took a series of policy measures to support the stock market, boosting investor confidence. Investors are also looking ahead to the National People’s Congress, which begins on March 5, for signs of further policy support from the authorities. Meanwhile, investors are on edge as Hong Kong is due to announce its 2024 budget today amid a fragile economic turnaround amid a shaky recovery in China and lingering geopolitical tensions.

The Australian dollar fell to $0.652, hitting its lowest level in a week, as investors reacted to softer-than-expected inflation data in the country. The data showed that Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) remained at a two-year low of 3.4% y/y in January, unchanged from December and below forecasts of 3.6% y/y. Last week, minutes from the latest RBA meeting showed that policymakers discussed the possibility of further rate hikes at the February meeting. Still, they ultimately decided to maintain current monetary parameters, given signs of moderate inflation.

The New Zealand dollar slid to $0.61, hitting its lowest level in almost two weeks, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates unchanged and offered a less hawkish view on monetary policy than the market expected. The RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting at 5.5%. The central bank noted the progress in containing inflation and lowered its forecast for rates to peak at 5.6% from 5.7%. However, the committee still expects monetary easing to begin in mid-2025. Markets have now lowered bets on a May rate hike to 20% from nearly 50% before the latest decision. Last week, RBNZ head Adrian Orr said there was still work to bring core inflation down but acknowledged the risks of excessive policy tightening.

S&P 500 (US500)  5,078.18 +8.65 (+0.17%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,972.41 −96.82 (−0.25%)

DAX (DE40)  17,556.49 +133.26 (+0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,683.02 −1.28 (−0.017%)

USD Index  103.94 +0.11 (+0.11%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 03:00 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement at 03:00 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Williams at 19:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
27 Feb

EUR/USD Shows Resilience Amid Risk Appetite

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trading close to 1.0821, demonstrating a strong stance in the current market environment. Investors are leaning towards riskier assets, buoyed by the anticipation of several key macroeconomic releases this week.

A critical focal point for the market will be the upcoming US inflation data, particularly the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, a preferred measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve. The report, expected to be released on Thursday, is forecasted to show a 0.4% month-on-month increase. This data is crucial as it influences the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.

The prevailing market sentiment suggests that the Federal Reserve may not be poised to embark on a monetary easing cycle just yet, opting instead to maintain the current interest rate levels for a longer duration.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has shown a downtrend, reaching a low of 1.0802. It’s anticipated that a corrective movement could occur next. After this correction, the price is expected to decline to 1.0785, where it might form a consolidation range. A break below this range could lead to a further decrease towards the local target of 1.0720. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned below zero and the histogram indicating a sharp decline, suggesting a potential further decline in the price to new lows.

The H1 chart presents a consolidation phase around 1.0824, followed by a potential drop to 1.0784. After reaching this level, the price may rebound to 1.0850 before descending again to 1.0720. This analysis is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently near 80 and anticipated to drop to 20, indicating the likelihood of further price movements within this trend.

 

Disclaimer: Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 Feb

XAGUSD: Poised to fill the gap?

By ForexTime

  • Silver rangebound on D1 chart
  • US PCE report could trigger volatility
  • H1 inverse head & shoulders formation
  • Key levels of interest at $22.72 and $22.614

Silver kicked off Tuesday’s session on a bullish note with prices approaching the H1 161.8 golden Fibonacci point at $22.722.

The precious metal could see heightened levels of volatility this week due to key US economic data and speeches by Fed officials that could offer clues on the outlook for rates. It will be wise to keep a close tab on the US January PCE report on Thursday, especially the Core Personal Consumption – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Silver often follows gold’s lead, with interest rate expectations influencing appetite for non-yielding assets like precious metals.

To put things into perspective, silver and gold have moved in tandem 68% of the time, in any given 30-day period over the past decade! Essentially, traders who have been closely following gold can expect similar price action on silver.

From a technical perspective, silver remains trapped within a wide range on the daily charts.

But after opening the week with a downward gap, the question is whether the precious metal can close the gap?

At the time of writing, silver is fulfilling the measured move objective of an inverse head and shoulder pattern on the H1 timeframe.

After the completion of the “Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern“, silver bulls (those looking to see the precious metal rally) will have their attention turned to the $22.72 level which is the golden 161.8 Fibonacci ratio, to act as near-term resistance.

  • A breach of the 161.8 golden Fibonacci ratio may give way to the closure of the gap.

On the other hand, XAGUSD bears (those looking to see the precious metal decline) may look for a close below the 100 Fibonacci level at $22.614 with a retest and breach of the neckline of the inverse head and shoulder patterns neckline at $22.565 as a possible sign of a decline to lows below $22.437.

The Fibonacci levels are taken from the February 26th intraday high of $22.614 to February 26th intraday low of $22.437.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 73% chance that XAGUSD will trade within the $22.0165 – $23.3762 range over the next one week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals
27 Feb

Inflationary pressures are easing in Japan. Natural gas producers want to stop prices from falling

By JustMarkets

On Monday, stock indices gave up early gains and closed lower, consolidating below last week’s record highs. At Monday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.16%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed the day negative 0.13%. Supply-side pressure pushed bond yields higher on Monday and was bearish for stocks.

In extended trading, Zoom Video (ZM) shares jumped by 10% after beating revenue and earnings expectations, while Unity Software fell by 18% after reporting weak financial guidance.

This week, investor attention is focused on PCE inflation data and Federal Reserve speeches. PCE and core inflation are expected to show a small monthly increase, but the annual rate is expected to slow. In addition, the second estimate of US GDP growth for Q4 will be released.

Equity markets in Europe traded flat on Monday. German DAX (DE40) rose by 0.02%, French CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.46% yesterday, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.08%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.29%.

Speaking at the European Parliament, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the current disinflation process should continue at a pace that could lead to the first rate cut by June, although some favor an earlier approach. Money markets have also reassessed their expectations for the first rate cut by the US Fed from May to June. With the ECB generally following the US Fed’s lead, investors should not expect the first rate cut from the ECB until summer.

Silver retreated yesterday amid the negative impact of iron ore prices falling to a 4-month low on Monday on concerns about Chinese demand for industrial metals.

WTI crude futures are holding above $77 a barrel on Tuesday after jumping more than 1% in the previous session, helped by ongoing supply disruptions that have raised supply concerns. Houthi rebels in Yemen continued attacks on Red Sea vessels, driving up freight costs and delaying deliveries. Meanwhile, in the United States, analysts noted strong demand from refineries, benefiting from high margins. Refineries with high profit margins buy more barrels, and foreign buyers favor US crude to avoid Red Sea transportation problems.

Natural gas prices rose moderately on Monday thanks to some coverage of short positions by funds ahead of Tuesday’s March futures contract expiration. Also, it was reported last week that major shale gas producers will cut production due to extremely low prices, and Chesapeake Energy will be the first to do so. The low prices result from weak demand, so producers are beginning to take action to stop the drop in natural gas prices. Seasonally, natural gas has a positive March-April performance, so there is plenty of upside for prices in the coming weeks.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 0.35% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined 1.64% on Monday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down 0.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed positive 0.12%.

Japan’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food but includes the cost of fuel, was 2% in January 2024, slowing from 2.3% in December and the lowest since March 2022. Still, the January figure was above market forecasts of 1.8%. Japan’s core inflation is now within the central bank’s 2% target. This eases pressure on the BoJ to raise interest rates after months of speculation that rising wages and prices would force it to do so. The BoJ’s ultra-confident stance has been a key fulcrum for Japanese markets in the past year as rising interest rates in the rest of the world and a weakening yen have sent foreign investors rushing into local equities.

While additional stimulus measures from Beijing helped Chinese markets bounce off multi-year lows, markets are now waiting for signs of real improvement in the economy. Purchasing managers’ index data for February is due out later this week and is expected to provide clearer signals on the health of Asia’s largest economy.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,069.53 −19.27 (−0.38%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,069.23 −62.30 (−0.16%)

DAX (DE40)  17,423.23 +3.90 (+0.022%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,684.30 −21.98 (−0.29%)

USD Index  103.78 −0.16 (−0.15%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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