InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.12%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.11%, setting an all-time high. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.14%. Stocks received some support from Thursday’s upwardly revised fourth-quarter GDP report. In contrast, the core PCE price deflator was revised downward, reinforcing the prospect of a soft landing for the economy. However, hawkish comments from Fed spokesman Waller on Wednesday night pushed bond yields higher and capped gains in stocks when he said the latest inflation data was disappointing and he wanted to see at least a couple of months of better inflation data before cutting interest rates.

US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 2,000 to 210,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 212,000. US GDP for Q4 was revised upward to 3.4% (QoQ), which is stronger than expectations of 3.2%, and Personal Consumption for Q4 was revised upward to 3.3%, which is stronger than expectations of 3.0%. US home sales for February rose by 1.6 % mom, slightly stronger than expectations of 1.5% mom. The March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward to a 2-year high of 79.4, stronger than expectations of 76.5.

Although most financial markets are closed today, the PCE Price Index report will be released in the US. The overall PCE Price Index is expected to remain at a 2.4% annualized rate. The Core Price Index (which excludes food and energy prices) is forecast at 2.7% y/y from the current 2.8%. If the Core PCE Price Index remains around 2.8%, it would confirm the Fed’s hypothesis that progress on the inflation front has stalled. In such a scenario, the dollar index may get additional support.

Equity markets in Europe mostly rose on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.01%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 0.33%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.26%.

Thursday’s Eurozone money supply report and German retail sales report for February proved dovish for ECB policy and supported European indices. In addition, indices rose due to dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Panetta and Villeroy de Galhau, who said that conditions for monetary easing are emerging and rate cuts should start in the spring. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 11% at the next meeting on April 11 and 95% at the June 6 meeting.

Gold (XAU/USD) held above $2,230 an ounce on Friday, sitting at all-time highs amid bets that major central banks will move to cut interest rates this year. Heated geopolitical tensions boosted bullion demand. The metal’s price rose more than 9% in March. Silver (XAG/USD) gained support on Thursday after the US fourth-quarter GDP data was revised slightly higher, which was a positive for industrial metals demand.

WTI crude oil prices rose above $82 per barrel on Thursday, marking the third consecutive monthly rise. This was driven by optimism over the OPEC+ alliance’s continued production cuts. Despite rising geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supplies, OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil production policy at its meeting next Wednesday.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 1.46%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.90%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 0.91% on the day and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.99%.

The offshore yuan weakened to 7.26 per dollar, near its lowest level in four months, amid expectations that China will further ease policy to stimulate growth. Meanwhile, US interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period amid stagnant inflation. A senior central bank official recently said the People’s Bank of China has room to further reduce banks’ reserve requirement ratios.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,254.35 +5.86 (+0.11%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,807.37 +47.29 (+0.12%)

DAX (DE40) 18,492.49 +15.40 (+0.083%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,952.62 +20.64 (+0.26%)

USD Index 104.53 +0.19 (+0.18%)

• – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
• – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+2);
• – US Core PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:20 (GMT+2);
• – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

On Wednesday, the US stock indices ended trading with moderate growth. A decline in T-note bond yields supported the broader market. Investors also welcomed reports that S&P Global Ratings maintained its AA+ long-term US sovereign credit rating and A-1+ short-term sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook. As of Wednesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.22%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.86%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.51%.

Merck’s (MRK) stock price rose more than 4% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials Index after its pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. Netflix (NFLX) shares closed down more than 2% after Wedbush removed it from its list of best ideas, saying the company will have a “much harder time” impressing investors this year compared to last. According to SEC filings, Salesforce (CRM) closed down more than 1% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials losers list on signs of insider selling after CEO Benioff sold $4.59 million worth of shares on Monday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.50% and set a new all-time high, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed yesterday up 0.25%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 1.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.01%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index (EU50) rose to a 23-year high on Wednesday.

More ECB policymakers are hinting at a rate cut in June. Yesterday, ECB Governing Council representative Kazaks said inflation will continue to fall across the Eurozone, and June could be a good time for the ECB to start lowering borrowing costs. His colleague, ECB executive board representative Cipollone, added that if incoming data confirms the scenario envisioned in the March forecasts, the ECB should be ready to roll back its restrictive monetary policy stance quickly. Currently, swaps are pricing in the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut to 13% at the next meeting on April 11 and fully pricing in that rate cut (100%) at the next meeting on June 6.

German retail sales in February 2024 fell by 1.9% month-on-month, falling short of market forecasts that expected a 0.3% increase. This was the fourth consecutive month of decline in retail sales and the sharpest pace since October 2022, reflecting the impact of higher inflation and high borrowing costs.

The UK economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023, entering a technical recession as high inflation, record borrowing costs, and weak external demand put pressure on demand and activity.

WTI crude futures rose to $82 a barrel on Thursday, breaking a two-day decline, as the latest EIA report pointed to a smaller weekly increase in US crude inventories compared to API data. The EIA data showed that US crude inventories rose by 3.165 million barrels last week, beating market expectations for a 1.275 million barrel decline but far less than the 9.337 million barrel increase reported by the API. Investors also highlighted ongoing supply concerns before next week’s OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.90%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) declined by 0.76%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.36% yesterday, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.51%. At the market open on Thursday, Chinese indices bounced off one-month lows amid expectations that Chinese authorities will step up policy support to shore up the economy. On Thursday, Chinese lawmaker Zhao Leji said that the country would continue to open its economy to foreign investors, which boosted market sentiment. Investors are awaiting data on manufacturing and services activity in China in the coming days to gauge the health of the world’s second-largest economy. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US business leaders in Beijing on Wednesday as the government seeks to return foreign investors to the country.

The Reserve Bank of South Africa unanimously decided to keep the key repo rate at 8.25%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting at 2009 levels, as expected. Policymakers emphasized that risks to the inflation outlook were generally skewed to the upside. Core inflation accelerated for the second consecutive month, reaching 5.6% in February from January’s 5.3%, nearing the upper end of the central bank’s target range of 3-6%. Inflation is not expected to reach the middle of the target range until the end of 2025, later than previously thought, as it was initially expected to do so by mid-year.

Expectations for Australian consumer inflation fell to 4.3% in March 2024 from 4.5% in February, indicating the lowest level since October 2021 amid signs that domestic price pressures continue to ease. Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month in February 2024, slowing sharply from a 1.1% increase in the previous month and below market forecasts of 0.4%. The S&P/ASX 200 Index (AU200) closed at 7,897 on Thursday, hitting new record highs. Mining stocks led the gains amid higher gold, iron ore, and lithium prices. The interest rate-sensitive banking, real estate, and retail sectors also rose as softer-than-expected domestic inflation data bolstered bets for a rate cut in the second half of 2024.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,248.49 +44.91 (+0.86%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,760.08 +477.75 (+1.22%)

DAX (DE40) 18,477.09 +92.74 (+0.50%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,931.98 +1.02 (+0.01%)

USD Index 104.37 +0.08 (+0.07%)

• – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
• – US GDP (q/q) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – Canada GDP (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 15:45 (GMT+2);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).
• – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.08%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.42%.

On Tuesday, stock indices gave up early gains and suffered moderate losses. Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, causing chip maker stocks to fall, which impacted the overall market. Eight of the eleven sectors ended trading lower. The US economic news on Tuesday was mixed for stocks, with new capital goods orders rising more than expected in February, but the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined.

Tesla (TSLA) closed higher by more than 2% after it was revealed that Italy’s Ministry of Industry has contacted the company about the potential production of electric trucks.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.67% and set a new all-time high, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed Tuesday up 0.41%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.36%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.17%.

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for April in Germany rose by 1.4 to 27.4, stronger than expectations of 28.0. ECB Governing Council spokesman Müller said the data over the coming weeks may be enough to confirm a slowdown in inflation by the time ECB policymakers set borrowing costs in June.

The Swiss franc fell to 0.9 per US dollar in late March, the lowest in nearly five months, amid contrasting monetary policies from the Swiss National Bank and the Federal Reserve. The SNB cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 1.5% at its March meeting, surprising markets that had expected it to hold, the first rate cut among major central banks since global disinflation began in 2023. In addition to the rate cut, the SNB sharply revised its inflation forecast for Switzerland downward, with policymakers expecting inflation to stay below 1.5% in the near term despite the government ending utility subsidies.

Sweden’s Riksbank will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The Riksbank is expected to leave rates unchanged at this meeting, but traders will be hoping for hints that a rate cut will come in June or even earlier.

WTI crude prices fell to $81 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session. A large increase in US crude inventories raised demand concerns in the world’s top oil consumer. Industry data showed that US crude inventories rose by 9.337 million barrels last week, a reversal from the previous week’s 1.519 million barrel decline and the biggest weekly increase since February last year.

Asian markets were mostly down. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) lost 0.40%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped 0.69%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended yesterday up 0.88% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.41%.

Softer-than-expected Australian inflation data bolstered bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may start cutting interest rates this summer. The data showed that Australia’s monthly consumer price index for February 2024 came in at 3.4%, unchanged from the previous two months and missing forecasts for a slight rise to 3.5%.

The Japanese yen’s gradual decline toward 152 per dollar for the first time since 1990 was enough for Japan’s finance minister to immediately warn of “decisive steps” to tame “disorderly” moves. He last uttered those words before the central bank intervened at the end of 2022 to support the yen. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Wednesday that supporting the economy with an accommodative monetary policy is now essential.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,203.58 −14.61 (−0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,282.33 −31.31 (−0.08%)

DAX (DE40) 18,384.35 +123.04 (+0.67%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,930.96 +13.39 (+0.17%)

USD Index 104.30 +0.07 (+0.07%)

• – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.