Financial News

Archive for Financial News – Page 150

European indices set new price highs. PBoC cut the rate on 5-year loans

Due to a bank holiday, the US stock market was not trading on Monday.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) lost 0.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.01% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 0.59% on Monday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.22%. The FTSE 100 Index gained momentum and closed at 7730 on Monday, its highest level all year. Investors are gearing up for the week ahead as key data such as the flash Eurozone PMI and final inflation data will be released. The market also looks forward to the Fed and ECB meeting minutes and semiconductor giant Nvidia Corp’s (NVDA) earnings report.

Silver (XAGUSD) prices are trading around $23 an ounce, moving away from the seven-week high of $23.4 an ounce reached on February 16, as traders continue adjusting their bets on a Fed rate cut. Upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and statements from Fed officials will provide more clues as to when the first rate cut may occur. Originally expected to be cut in March, there is now a 53% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in June. Silver prices are expected to rise this year thanks to a weaker dollar and lower Treasury bond yields as the Fed moves to looser monetary policy.

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil prices held near three-week highs above $83 a barrel as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to raise supply concerns. The Houthi rebel group in Yemen launched fresh strikes on shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, with at least four more ships hit by drone strikes or missiles since Friday. Investors were also cheered by strong travel data from China, a significant importer of crude oil.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.04% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.82% after the holidays, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.13% on Monday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.09% on the day.

The offshore yuan (CNY) is holding near 7.20 per dollar as investors reacted to the central bank’s latest decision. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its main five-year lending rate by 25 basis points to 3/95%, beating forecasts for a 15 bps cut. It was the most aggressive cut since this rate was introduced in 2019 as China continues to struggle with a sluggish economic recovery. Meanwhile, the PBoC left the one-year lending rate unchanged at 3.45%. Earlier this week, investors were cheered by strong travel data from China during the Lunar New Year celebrations, which exceeded pre-New Year’s Eve levels this year.

The Australian dollar fell to $0.652, pulling back from two-week highs, as investors digested the latest central bank meeting minutes. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) February meeting discussed the possibility of further interest rate hikes but ultimately decided to maintain current monetary settings given signs of moderate inflation. The RBA also indicated it needed more time to see if inflation was returning to target before ruling out the possibility of further rate hikes. Markets expect the central bank to cut interest rates by a total of about 40 basis points this year, with the first move coming in August.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,005.57 0 (0%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,627.99 0 (0%)

DAX (DE40) 17,092.26 −25.18 (−0.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,728.50 +16.79 (+0.22%)

USD Index 104.24 −0.05 (−0.05%)

Important events today:

– Australia RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– China PBoC Prime Rate (m/m) at 03:15 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

20 Feb

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD waits for directional spark

By ForexTime

EURUSD enters standby mode

EU data + ECB minutes in focus

USD volatility could trigger breakout

Key levels of interest at 1.0800 & 1.0700

After bouncing within a 100-pip range since early February, the world’s most-traded FX pair may be set for a big move.

The trend is bearish on the H4/daily timeframe but bulls have put up a good fight with support at 1.0700 and resistance at 1.0800.

It is a similar story on the weekly charts with the bullish pin bar signalling a potential reversal if prices push back above the 50-week SMA.

Nevertheless, the recent price action suggests that the EURUSD needs fresh motivation to trigger a potential breakout.

Here are 3 potential catalysts to keep an eye on:

EU data + ECB minutes

The euro could turn volatile from mid-week due to key EU data and the ECB meeting minutes.

Key reports in the form of the Eurozone consumer confidence and latest inflation readings among others may provide fresh insights on the future path of ECB interest rates. It will be wise to keep an eye on data from Germany, the largest economy in Europe.

Regarding the ECB minutes, investors are likely to closely scrutinise them for any clues on the timings of rate cuts.

Traders are currently pricing in a 45% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by April, with a cut fully priced in by June.

These odds are likely to be influenced by the incoming data from Europe this week.

The EURUSD may push higher if overall EU economic data and minutes signal that the ECB may need more time before cutting interests.
Should economic data disappoint, inflation cools and the minutes sound dovish – the EURUSD may fall.

Fed minutes + speeches

The Fed minutes and speeches by Federal Reserve officials may inject renewed life into the dollar.

Although much has changed since the January meeting, it could provide investors with some insight into why Fed officials held off on cutting rates in March despite signs of cooling inflation. Speeches by Fed officials will be closely scrutinized by market players for fresh clues on the timings of Fed interest rate cuts.

Should the dollar end up weakening this week, the EURUSD is likely to push higher.
If the dollar strengthens as data and Fed officials further dampen hopes of early cuts, the EURUSD has the potential to tumble.

Technical forces

The EURUSD is bearish on the daily timeframe as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

A bearish daily close below 1.0800 may trigger a selloff back towards the 1.0700 support.
A strong breakout and daily close above 1.0800 may encourage a move towards the 200-day SMA at 1.0825 and resistance at 1.0869 just below the 50-day SMA.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 78% chance that EURUSD trades within the 1.0687 – 1.0869 over the next week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

18 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-30,570 contracts) with Copper (-18,987 contracts), Platinum (-7,596 contracts), Silver (-4,455 contracts), Palladium (-2,509 contracts) and Steel (-587 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) and Copper (3 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (49.3 percent)
Silver (38.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (45.2 percent)
Copper (2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.8 percent)
Platinum (20.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.0 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (90.2 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals have negative 6-week trend scores currently.

Platinum (-65 percent) leads the downside trend scores with Copper (-37 percent) and Gold (-34 percent) as the next market with the lowest trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-34.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-20.7 percent)
Silver (-30.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-22.8 percent)
Copper (-37.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-18.7 percent)
Platinum (-65.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-33.9 percent)
Palladium (-32.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.3 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 131,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -30,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 161,738 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	26.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	62.4	5.3
– Net Position:	131,168	-152,980	21,812
– Gross Longs:	217,505	109,529	44,228
– Gross Shorts:	86,337	262,509	22,416
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	62.9	44.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.4	33.7	-19.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,425 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	31.2	21.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	50.6	9.8
– Net Position:	12,425	-29,688	17,263
– Gross Longs:	56,785	47,556	32,154
– Gross Shorts:	44,360	77,244	14,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	56.3	62.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	26.3	-4.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	39.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	27.2	5.8
– Net Position:	-32,697	30,426	2,271
– Gross Longs:	78,229	100,413	17,289
– Gross Shorts:	110,926	69,987	15,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	96.8	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.2	34.8	-4.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,596 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,534 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	25.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	34.5	4.4
– Net Position:	1,938	-8,229	6,291
– Gross Longs:	50,318	23,849	10,369
– Gross Shorts:	48,380	32,078	4,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	75.7	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-65.0	52.6	33.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	52.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	6.0	6.6
– Net Position:	-13,511	13,042	469
– Gross Longs:	4,317	14,720	2,308
– Gross Shorts:	17,828	1,678	1,839
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	8.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	69.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	28.3	33.9

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	81.2	1.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	73.1	0.6
– Net Position:	-2,183	1,957	226
– Gross Longs:	3,117	19,560	379
– Gross Shorts:	5,300	17,603	153
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	12.1	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	12.1	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

18 Feb

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (117,595 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (67,943 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (30,099 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (29,415 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (6,328 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-19,126 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-15,056 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,021 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (91 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (50 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (44 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (9 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (10 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (38.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (39.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (18.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (12.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (44.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (33.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (50.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (47.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (90.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (89.0 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Ultra Treasury Bonds (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Fed Funds (-2 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-2.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-5.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-2.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-1.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (9.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (0.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-13.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-20.8 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (4.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-2.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 586,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 30,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 556,443 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	51.2	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	56.6	0.5
– Net Position:	586,542	-567,164	-19,378
– Gross Longs:	1,910,959	5,376,976	34,146
– Gross Shorts:	1,324,417	5,944,140	53,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.6	10.2	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-3.3	-9.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -141,981 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -135,960 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	69.5	1.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	61.6	2.3
– Net Position:	-141,981	153,433	-11,452
– Gross Longs:	259,866	1,346,488	33,686
– Gross Shorts:	401,847	1,193,055	45,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.2	62.3	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	2.5	-1.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,188,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 117,595 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,305,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	81.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	55.4	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,188,014	1,052,479	135,535
– Gross Longs:	374,316	3,254,831	263,751
– Gross Shorts:	1,562,330	2,202,352	128,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.4	79.6	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-5.5	8.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,316,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,126 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,297,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.7	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	64.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-1,316,293	1,215,390	100,903
– Gross Longs:	417,558	4,996,200	397,262
– Gross Shorts:	1,733,851	3,780,810	296,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.3	84.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	5.0	-8.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -760,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 67,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -828,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	78.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	63.9	7.6
– Net Position:	-760,519	688,569	71,950
– Gross Longs:	489,605	3,713,618	432,020
– Gross Shorts:	1,250,124	3,025,049	360,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.0	82.9	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-12.0	4.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -230,706 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -15,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -215,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	76.6	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	62.3	12.7
– Net Position:	-230,706	313,523	-82,817
– Gross Longs:	279,753	1,686,833	197,906
– Gross Shorts:	510,459	1,373,310	280,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	93.9	64.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	0.3	-12.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -113,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	71.8	14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	67.6	10.6
– Net Position:	-113,371	59,063	54,308
– Gross Longs:	185,581	1,029,694	205,953
– Gross Shorts:	298,952	970,631	151,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	33.9	88.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-10.8	0.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -334,876 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -341,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	79.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	61.1	8.7
– Net Position:	-334,876	309,005	25,871
– Gross Longs:	165,750	1,330,881	170,951
– Gross Shorts:	500,626	1,021,876	145,080
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	47.8	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.3	8.0	15.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

18 Feb

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by S&P500 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (17,184 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2,480 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (92 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell-Mini (-4,458 contracts), the VIX (-1,979 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-616 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-812 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (93 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (89 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (75 percent) and Russell-Mini (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (33 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (75.2 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (32.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (30.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (93.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (94.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (88.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (90.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (67.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (70.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (42.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (41.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (37.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets.

The Russell-Mini (-17 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-4.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-6.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (1.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (16.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (7.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-16.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (0.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (12.5 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.1	46.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	31.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-50,966	54,671	-3,705
– Gross Longs:	76,506	167,381	26,308
– Gross Shorts:	127,472	112,710	30,013
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	23.4	77.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.0	2.9	8.0

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -215,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -232,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	74.3	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	67.8	8.2
– Net Position:	-215,778	152,512	63,266
– Gross Longs:	292,466	1,738,023	254,739
– Gross Shorts:	508,244	1,585,511	191,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	60.9	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	3.5	-9.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	51.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	73.4	12.7
– Net Position:	20,369	-23,116	2,747
– Gross Longs:	32,665	52,815	15,867
– Gross Shorts:	12,296	75,931	13,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.4	4.7	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.3	-3.7	8.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -812 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,888 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	52.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	65.0	12.1
– Net Position:	32,076	-37,213	5,137
– Gross Longs:	97,292	155,161	40,984
– Gross Shorts:	65,216	192,374	35,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	11.7	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.8	11.1	-8.4

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	80.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	76.9	4.8
– Net Position:	-24,451	16,168	8,283
– Gross Longs:	60,783	405,971	32,713
– Gross Shorts:	85,234	389,803	24,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	30.9	56.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	16.8	-9.2

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 92 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,480 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	64.2	25.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	54.9	14.3
– Net Position:	-3,388	1,576	1,812
– Gross Longs:	1,829	10,843	4,222
– Gross Shorts:	5,217	9,267	2,410
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.5	45.5	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-2.7	6.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -27,856 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	88.8	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	83.3	2.2
– Net Position:	-27,856	23,703	4,153
– Gross Longs:	33,926	382,513	13,677
– Gross Shorts:	61,782	358,810	9,524
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	61.4	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-5.7	-16.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

18 Feb

Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator bets led by Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (24,092 contracts) with Sugar (11,631 contracts), Soybean Oil (9,985 contracts), Wheat (9,277 contracts), Coffee (5,101 contracts), Live Cattle (4,440 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-16,517 contracts), Soybean Meal (-11,545 contracts), Cocoa (-8,763 contracts) and Soybeans (-934 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (89 percent) and Cotton (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Cocoa (60 percent), Wheat (47 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent) and the Soybean Oil (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.1 percent)
Sugar (23.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.7 percent)
Coffee (89.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.8 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (36.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (31.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (31.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (29.8 percent)
Cotton (71.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (53.8 percent)
Cocoa (60.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (69.2 percent)
Wheat (47.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.9 percent)

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (59 percent) and Live Cattle (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (25 percent), Coffee (17 percent) and Sugar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-33 percent), Cocoa (-20 percent) and Corn (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-12.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (-12.9 percent)
Sugar (6.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.7 percent)
Coffee (17.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (11.3 percent)
Soybeans (-33.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-36.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-0.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-32.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-33.7 percent)
Live Cattle (24.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (17.6 percent)
Cotton (58.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (42.3 percent)
Cocoa (-20.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.6 percent)
Wheat (3.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of -245,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -229,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	45.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	29.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-245,939	263,504	-17,565
– Gross Longs:	281,214	730,978	157,423
– Gross Shorts:	527,153	467,474	174,988
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.6	16.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 92,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 80,524 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	55.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	68.5	6.2
– Net Position:	92,155	-112,138	19,983
– Gross Longs:	184,125	493,076	75,081
– Gross Shorts:	91,970	605,214	55,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	75.1	28.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-6.1	3.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	37.6	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	65.0	3.4
– Net Position:	60,084	-61,442	1,358
– Gross Longs:	82,479	84,398	8,905
– Gross Shorts:	22,395	145,840	7,547
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.0	14.8	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-16.4	-2.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -161,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	59.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	37.0	8.2
– Net Position:	-161,751	171,638	-9,887
– Gross Longs:	86,975	456,229	52,898
– Gross Shorts:	248,726	284,591	62,785
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.9	81.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.9	32.4	8.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -24,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,601 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	49.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	45.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-24,616	25,463	-847
– Gross Longs:	105,702	275,768	27,680
– Gross Shorts:	130,318	250,305	28,527
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.0	95.0	10.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-2.8	-10.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	49.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	43.6	6.4
– Net Position:	-45,467	28,730	16,737
– Gross Longs:	79,737	244,539	48,351
– Gross Shorts:	125,204	215,809	31,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	30.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.5	29.7	24.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 53,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,440 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.0	37.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	54.7	12.7
– Net Position:	53,594	-48,988	-4,606
– Gross Longs:	97,639	108,023	31,859
– Gross Shorts:	44,045	157,011	36,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.7	62.9	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-24.6	-14.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,579 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	39.1	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	37.6	11.0
– Net Position:	1,579	3,243	-4,822
– Gross Longs:	70,928	82,947	18,474
– Gross Shorts:	69,349	79,704	23,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.0	72.5	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.7	-27.5	5.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	36.8	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	73.2	3.7
– Net Position:	83,935	-92,565	8,630
– Gross Longs:	102,360	93,505	17,952
– Gross Shorts:	18,425	186,070	9,322
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.9	27.6	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	58.9	-59.5	57.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 49,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.2	31.4	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	51.6	4.0
– Net Position:	49,351	-54,822	5,471
– Gross Longs:	95,562	85,415	16,442
– Gross Shorts:	46,211	140,237	10,971
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	37.0	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.0	14.7	42.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	36.4	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	27.8	8.7
– Net Position:	-29,007	33,760	-4,753
– Gross Longs:	124,909	143,969	29,853
– Gross Shorts:	153,916	110,209	34,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.4	51.8	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-5.2	10.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

15 Feb

Australia’s labor market report is weak. Japan’s GDP unexpectedly contracted

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.40%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.96%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively at 1.30%.

Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee stated yesterday that even if inflation is slightly higher for a few months, it would still be consistent with a path back to target. He added that the Fed’s current policy is pretty restrictive and said that he doesn’t support the idea of waiting until inflation hits 2% in 12 months to start cutting interest rates. That raised the odds that the Fed could begin cutting rates this spring. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 14% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 46% for the April 30-May 1 meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) gained 0.68% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined 0.09%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.75%.

Eurozone industrial production for December unexpectedly rose by 2.6% m/m, beating expectations of 0.2% m/m and the most significant increase in 16 months.

ECB Vice President Guindos said yesterday that it would take some time before the ECB has the necessary information to confirm that inflation is steadily returning to our 2% target. His colleague, ECB Governing Council representative Makhlouf, added that the short-term outlook for the Eurozone economy points to stagnation amid tightening financing conditions, weak business and consumer confidence, and weak foreign demand. Swaps put the odds of an ECB rate cut at 25 bps at 8% at the March 7 meeting and 55% at the April 11 meeting.

Silver gained support on Wednesday after Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly rose rapidly in 16 months, a positive for industrial metals demand. Gold also gained support as an inflation hedge after the US 10-year breakeven inflation rate rose to a 3-week high on Wednesday.

WTI crude futures fell as low as $76 a barrel on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session as official data showed that US oil inventories rose by about 12 million barrels last week, the highest in three months. The latest figure also exceeded market expectations for a 2.56 million barrel rise in inventories and raised demand concerns in the world’s largest oil consumer. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest report forecasts global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, contrasting with more conservative estimates from other sources.

Asian markets traded mixed on Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.69% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) will not trade for the rest of the week due to Chinese New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.84%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day negative 0.74%.

Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracted 0.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023, falling short of market forecasts that expected 1.4% growth. It was the first decline in five years amid high inflation and an uncertain global economic outlook.

Traders are looking to add new positions on Chinese indices after Chinese authorities said the country’s holiday season could witness a record 9 billion domestic passenger trips this week. Meanwhile, Beijing has taken a dozen steps since January to cushion the rout in China’s stock market while supporting weak demand in the real estate market amid the lingering real estate crisis.

The Australian dollar held below $0.65 in a weak market reaction as weak employment data reinforced a dovish view of the country’s monetary policy. Australia’s unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 4.1% in January, and employment increased by just 500, while analysts had expected 30,000 new jobs. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut interest rates by a total of about 40 basis points this year, with the first move coming in August. Earlier this week, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said inflation didn’t need to slow to 2.5% before the central bank would consider cutting the money rate. However, she emphasized that the central bank remains open to the possibility of a further rate hike in the face of persistent inflation. Expectations for Australian consumer inflation in February 2024 stood at 4.5%, unchanged for the third consecutive month and at its lowest level since January 2022.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,000.62 +47.45 (+0.96%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,424.27 +151.52 (+0.40%)

DAX (DE40) 16,945.48 +64.65 (+0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,568.40 +56.12 +0.75%)

USD Index 104.71 -0.25 (-0.23%)

News feed for 2024.02.15:

– Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
– Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
– Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
– UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Trade Balance at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
– US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
– US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
– New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 20:40 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

15 Feb

Target Thursdays: USDInd, Bitcoin & XAGUSD hit target prices

By ForexTime

USDInd bulls bags over 350 index points

Bitcoin secures 2 out of 4 profit levels

Silver eyes 4th and final M15 profit target

Check out these potential profits that you may have missed from our Daily Market Analysis.

USDInd bullish breakout

After struggling for direction in recent days, the USDInd has soared to its highest level in three-months.

TP hit: YES, prices blasted through 104.679 – the 161.8 golden Fibonacci ratio.

Why: Sticky US inflation data prompted investors to cut back bets on Fed rate cuts.

Technicals: Decisive breakout above 104.31 level and D1 channel resistance.

Bitcoin hits fresh 2024 high

Bitcoin has seen spectacular bullish action over the past two weeks, especially after the cryptocurrency surged to a fresh 2024 high!

TP hit: YES, 2 out of the 4 profit targets have been hit so far.

Why: Positive sentiment towards cryptocurrency amid growing success of bitcoin ETFs.

Technicals: H4 Momentum, MACD and 50 LWMA point to further upside.

Silver nears 4th profit level

Silver prices kicked off Thursday morning on a positive note with prices breaking through the bullish prices targets on the M15 timeframe.

TP hit: YES, 3 out of the 4 profit targets have been hit his morning.

Why: The precious metal seems to be drawing strength from a weaker dollar

Technicals: Prices bullish on M15 timeframe. Momentum and MACD signal further upside.

The above scenario (XAGUSD) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

This can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

14 Feb

Bitcoin bulls ride off weekly support

By ForexTime

Bitcoin bullish on D1/W1 timeframe

Strong W1 support at 48412.28

Prices firmly above H4 LWMA

4 potential targets on the H4 timeframe

Bullish scenario invalidated below 47714.98

Bitcoin has seen spectacular bullish action over the past two weeks.

Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts with the higher highs and higher lows confirming an uptrend. The upside momentum not only propelled prices towards a weekly resistance level but also triggered a breakout – opening a path beyond the psychological $50,000 level.

Although prices may retest the previous weekly resistance now turned support, demand seems strong and might cause another impulse wave to commence in the current uptrend market structure.

On the 4-hour chart, a strong uptrend is in progress. The price is above the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with both the Momentum Oscillators as well as the longer price cycle Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Oscillators confirming the upward momentum.

If the price reaches the 50425.86 level, a long scenario becomes possible.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level at 50425.86 and dragging it to a lower bottom at 47714.98, four conservative targets can be determined:

Target 1: 51510.21
Target 2: 52052.39
Target 3: 53136.74
Target 4: 54492.18

If the price breaks past the 47714.98 level, this scenario becomes invalidated.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Financial News

14 Feb

The US inflation report strengthened the US dollar and affected the indices. Switzerland is seeing a sharp decline in inflation

By JustMarkets

US stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after releasing a sharper-than-expected inflation report. At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.35%. The S&P 500 index (US500) was down 1.37%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative at 1.80%. In the United States, the annual inflation rate eased to 3.1%, beating expectations of 2.9%, while core inflation came in at 3.9% compared to the forecast of 3.7%. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% from the previous month, and core inflation rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations. The strong inflation report forced investors to revise their expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in March and May. All key sectors were down, with real estate and technology leading the way as shares of major technology companies such as Microsoft (2.1%), Amazon (2.1%), and Alphabet (1.6%) fell.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.92%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.84% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.59% on Tuesday, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.81%.

The ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator for Germany rose for the seventh consecutive month to 19.9 in February 2024, reaching its highest level in a year and beating market expectations of 17.5 amid hopes that major central banks will start cutting interest rates this year. In addition, German investor morale improved to a one-year high in February, while the assessment of current economic conditions fell to its lowest level since mid-2020. More than two-thirds of respondents expect the ECB to cut interest rates in the next six months due to lower inflation, while nearly three-quarters of respondents predict the US central bank will cut interest rates soon. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on March 7 and 52% at the April 11 meeting.

The UK unemployment rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 fell to 3.8% from 4.0%. The UK wages rose more than expected in the year’s final quarter, leading investors to cut bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England this year.

The Swiss franc fell to 0.88 per US dollar in February, its lowest in two months, after lower-than-expected inflation data strengthened the case for doves at the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Swiss consumer prices rose 1.3% year-on-year in January, well below market expectations of 1.7% and the lowest in two years, remaining below the SNB’s upper 2% target for the seventh consecutive month. Inflation fell despite repeated calls for stubbornly higher rates as the country scraped electricity subsidies and revised the value-added tax. In turn, this result has raised bets that the SNB may start to cut its benchmark discount rate in the first half of the year, including the possibility of a March cut. The franc was also pressured because the SNB increased its foreign exchange reserves for the second month in a row.

WTI crude oil prices rose to 78 dollars per barrel on Tuesday, hitting a two-week high, as tensions in the Middle East continued to support oil prices. Meanwhile, OPEC maintained its forecasts for sustained growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025 and raised its economic growth forecasts for those years, pointing to additional growth potential. In addition, the report noted a 350,000 bpd reduction in OPEC oil production in January following the implementation of a new round of voluntary production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance in the first quarter.

The US natural gas prices fell more than 5.5% to below $1.7/MMBtu, hitting their lowest since July 2020 due to rising production and weak demand. Gas wells pushed production to near-record levels after a sharp cold snap in mid-January.

Asian markets were mostly up on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was up 2.89% for the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) will not trade for the rest of the week due to Chinese New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was also not trading yesterday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day negative 0.15% on the day.

The sharp fall in the Japanese yen yesterday prompted Japan’s Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki to warn that authorities were closely monitoring the market without confirming whether they would intervene again. Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda also said that Japan would take appropriate action in the foreign exchange market if necessary, as the sharp fall of the yen is not suitable for the economy. The country intervened in the foreign exchange market three times in 2022 when the yen fell to a 32-year low of 152 per dollar but has taken no further action since then.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,953.17 −68.67 (−1.37%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,272.75 −524.63 (−1.35%)

DAX (DE40) 16,880.83 −156.52 (−0.92%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,512.28 −61.41 (−0.81%)

USD Index 104.85 +0.68 (+0.65%)

News feed for 2024.02.14:

– UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
– UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+2);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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Archive for Financial News – Page 150

After bouncing within a 100-pip range since early February, the world’s most-traded FX pair may be set for a big move.

EU data + ECB minutes

Fed minutes + speeches

Technical forces

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 78% chance that EURUSD trades within the 1.0687 – 1.0869 over the next week.

Weekly Speculator bets led lower by Gold & Copper

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Silver Comex Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Platinum Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Palladium Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Steel Futures Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 10-Year Bonds

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

US Treasury Bonds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

MSCI EAFE-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Sugar

Speculators Leaderboard

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Cotton

Cotton & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SUGAR Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

COFFEE Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

SOYBEANS Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

LIVE CATTLE Futures: