InvestMacro

By JustMarkets

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.85%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.91%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.33%. Optimism about the economic outlook is supporting stocks. Stocks have also received support since Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said the Fed’s next move is unlikely to be an interest rate hike. Stock indices maintained gains even after US economic reports showed weekly jobless claims rose less than expected and unit labor costs rose more in the first quarter, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.

On Thursday, Apple (AAPL) reported second-quarter results that beat Wall Street expectations, thanks to better-than-expected performance in its key China market. It also announced the most significant share repurchase in its history. Apple Inc (AAPL) shares rose more than 7% after the report. Qualcomm (QCOM) rose more than 9% after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter adjusted earnings per share and predicting third-quarter adjusted earnings per share above consensus. On the downside, Etsy (ETSY) is down more than 16% after the company reported first-quarter gross merchandise sales below consensus.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised its 2024 global growth prognosis to 3.1% from a February estimate of 2.9% and said risks are becoming “more balanced.”

Equity markets in Europe traded flat yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.20%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.88%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.16%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.63%.

On Thursday, the FTSE 100 Index hit a new record high of 8160 on positive corporate developments. Shell shares rose more than 2.5% after announcing a $3.5 billion share buyback and better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and cash flow.

WTI crude futures stabilized above $79 a barrel on Friday but are still down more than 5% this week as easing fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, signs of increased US oil supplies, and growing uncertainty about the outlook for oil demand weighed on prices. Egypt led efforts this week to restart stalled peace talks between Israel and Hamas. At the same time, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Hamas to accept Israel’s offer of a ceasefire in exchange for hostages. Meanwhile, OPEC+ said it may extend a voluntary 2.2 million BPD production cut beyond June if oil demand does not recover.

US natural gas (XNGUSD) prices climbed above the $2/MMBtu mark on Thursday, recovering from two consecutive losses. Prognoses point to higher demand next week, including increased gas deliveries to LNG export plants. In addition, the latest EIA report showed that US utilities pumped 59 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas into storage for the week ended April 26, 2024, compared to market expectations of a 55 BCF increase. Inventories are now 34.9% above the seasonal average.

Asian markets were mostly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.10%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was not trading, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 2.5% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.23%.

Global hedge funds using a strategy of long-short equity market positions are increasingly tilted in favor of China, as evidenced by their active buying of Hong Kong-listed stocks. The Hang Seng Index rose more than 7% in April, posting its best monthly gain since January 2023 and outperforming most significant markets. Swiss bank UBS said in a research note that trends in the Hong Kong market have reversed, unlike in February when the primary inflows came from covering short positions. As Hong Kong stocks rose, fundamental hedge funds with long-short positions continued accumulating shares of Chinese companies.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,064.20 +45.81 (+0.91%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,225.66 +322.37 (+0.85%)

DAX (DE40) 17,896.50 −35.67 (−0.20%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,172.15 +50.91 (+0.63%)

USD Index 105.39 −0.36 (−0.34%)

• – Norwegian NB Interest Rate Decision at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.34%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.33%. US stock indices traded mixed on Wednesday. Stock prices rose after bond yields fell, and Fed Chairman Powell said it was unlikely that the Fed’s next move would be a rate hike. However, the broader market gave up its gains and declined to close on the prospect of higher long-term interest rates. The broader market also came under pressure after Wednesday’s ADP employment change report for April rose more than expected, indicating a strengthening US labor market and strengthening the case for the Fed not to cut interest rates.

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. Fed Chair Powell ruled out the possibility of another rate hike, confirming that the Central Bank is leaning toward easing despite the delay. Meanwhile, policymakers acknowledged that inflation has fallen over the past year but remains high, saying there has been no progress on the Central Bank’s inflation target in recent months. Investors now await the critical monthly US jobs report on Friday to gauge the labor market’s strength and determine the future outlook for rates.

Starbucks (SBUX) shares fell more than 15% after the company reported an unexpected decline in comparable sales in the second quarter. Additionally, Garmin Ltd (GRMN) is up more than 13% after it reported first-quarter earnings that beat consensus estimates. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) closed down more than 8% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $5.4–6.0 billion, below the average consensus estimate of $5.72 billion. Kraft Heinz (KHC) lost more than 6% after the company reported first-quarter net sales of $6.41 billion, below the consensus forecast of $6.43 billion. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, about 81% of the S&P 500 companies already reported beat first-quarter earnings forecasts.

European equity markets did not trade yesterday, except for the British FTSE 100 (UK100), which closed negative 0.04%.

WTI crude oil prices stabilized above $79 per barrel on Thursday amid speculation that the US government may move to replenish its strategic oil reserves as it seeks to buy back oil at or below $79 per barrel. However, WTI crude prices remained near 7-week lows and are down more than 5% this week as hopes of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas and rising US crude inventories put pressure on the oil market.

Asian markets were predominantly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 0.34%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) were not trading, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.23%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75% on May 2, hours after the US Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged for the sixth consecutive time. Monetary policy in the Asian financial hub is conducted in line with US policy as the local currency is pegged to the US dollar.

Australia’s trade surplus in goods fell to A$5.02 billion in March 2024 from a downwardly revised $6.59 billion in the previous month, below market forecasts of $7.30 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since November 2020, as exports grew slower than imports.

The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 49.0 from March’s three-month low of 48.4. It was the 20th consecutive month of contraction in factory activity as demand remained weak. Declines in output and new orders were more moderate, with overseas sales rising for the first time in a year and at the fastest pace since April 2021. Employment remained flat after three consecutive monthly declines. On the other hand, purchasing activity declined, and delivery times fell marginally.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,018.39 −17.30 ((−0.34%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,903.29 +87.37 (+0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 17,932.17 0 (0%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,121.24 −22.89 (−0.28%)

USD Index 105.63 −0.59 (−0.56%)

• – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
• – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

At the end of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.49%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) was down 1.57%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 2.04% yesterday. Rising labor costs pushed bond yields higher and pressured stocks. The US Employment Cost Index for the first quarter rose more than expected, which is hawkish for Fed policy.

The US Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting today. The rate is expected to be kept at 5.5% at this meeting, so traders will focus on the FOMC statement and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Higher inflation and strong activity and employment figures have led to a shift in market expectations regarding the timing of the first interest rate cut. Markets now forecast a rate cut of 3 bps by June, 20 bps by September, and 36 bps by December. This is a striking change considering that just three months ago the market was fully discounting 150 bps of rate cuts this year from the March FOMC meeting. So if Jerome Powell announces that the rate cuts have been pushed to late summer or fall/winter, that would be a major support for the US dollar and a negative for indices and precious metals.

Amazon (AMZN) reported strong first-quarter results Tuesday, led by growth in its cloud computing division and new advertising dollars from its Prime Video streaming service. Shares of Amazon.com Inc. rose about 2% in after-hours trading.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) fell by 1.03%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.99% yesterday, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 2.22%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.04%.

The Eurozone inflation report showed a decline in the core index (excluding volatile food and energy prices) for April to a 2-year low of 2.7% y/y, which is dovish for ECB policy. ECB Governing Council spokesman Villeroy de Galhau said that Eurozone inflation data for April gives the ECB the confidence to start cutting interest rates in June. Eurozone Q1 GDP grew by 0.3% QoQ and 0.4% YoY, stronger than expectations of 0.1% QoQ and 0.2% YoY. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 87%.

WTI crude oil prices fell towards $81/bbl on Wednesday, declining for the third consecutive session as an industry report pointed to a sharp rise in US crude inventories, while hopes of a ceasefire agreement in the Middle East continued to weigh on oil prices. API data showed that US crude inventories rose by 4.906 million barrels last week after declining by 3.23 million barrels the previous week, the biggest increase since mid-March. On Tuesday, the US EIA also reported that US oil production rose to 13.15 million barrels per day in February from 12.58 barrels per day in January, the biggest monthly increase in 3.5 years.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.18%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.09% for Tuesday, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.35%.

New Zealand’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the first quarter, exceeding forecasts and the highest in three years, while employment unexpectedly fell by 0.2%, putting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on track to cut interest rates ahead of the US Federal Reserve. Investors are betting on a fourth-quarter RBNZ rate cut, although some expect the official money rate to remain unchanged until 2025.

Judo Bank Flash Australian manufacturing PMI rose to 49.6 in April from 47.3 a month earlier, according to the final estimate. This was the third consecutive monthly deterioration in conditions in the manufacturing sector, albeit slight. New orders for goods continued to fall, attributed to subdued market conditions and the impact of higher interest rates.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,035.69 −80.48 (−1.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,815.92 −570.17 (−1.49%)

DAX (DE40) 17,932.17 −186.15 (−1.03%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,144.13 −2.90 (−0.04%)

USD Index 106.26 +0.68 (+0.64%)

• – New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 00:00 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks at 04:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 23:15 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

On Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) rose by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index gained 0.32%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.35%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) 100 indices hit 2-week highs. Optimism over first-quarter earnings, positive corporate news, and lower bond yields contribute to the broader market’s gains.

Tesla’s (TSLA) shares are up more than 12% after the company met vital security and data privacy requirements in China. It will partner with Baidu (BIDU) to introduce a fully autonomous driving feature. Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is up more than 4% after reporting better-than-expected revenue from operations in the first quarter. Apple (AAPL) shares are up more than 3% after Bernstein upgraded its rating to “outperform.”

First-quarter earnings results were mostly better than expected, which is favorable for the stock. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, about 81% of the S&P 500 companies already reported beat first-quarter earnings estimates.

In the coming days, markets will focus on the outcome of Tuesday/Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell’s comments on how long the Federal Reserve is willing to wait before cutting interest rates. Recent US price data has signaled solid core inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations. Currently, markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut of 2% at the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 13% at the next meeting on June 12. In addition, the earnings results of AMZN and AAPL on Thursday will also determine the market’s direction.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed negative 0.29%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.48%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.09%.

Hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Knot and Wunsch on Monday put moderate pressure on European indices when they said the ECB should be cautious, sending a signal to markets that it will cut rates for a second consecutive month in July. The Eurozone economic confidence indicator for April unexpectedly fell by 0.6 to 95.6, weaker than expectations of a rise to 96.7. Germany’s consumer price index (EU harmonized) for April rose by 2.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of 2.3% y/y.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $82.5/bbl on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous session as peace talks between Israel and Hamas eased fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East. Markets are awaiting the Hamas leadership’s response to a phased truce offer made by Israel over the weekend in Cairo. However, ongoing Houthi attacks on maritime traffic south of the Suez Canal keep investors on edge.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.81%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.64%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.54%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.81%. The Hang Seng (HK50) retreated from the 5-month peak the previous day as some traders sought to lock in profits after substantial gains in the last six sessions. Meanwhile, investors were digesting China’s manufacturing PMI data for April, where official data showed a second consecutive month of growth in factory activity. Private Caixin survey data indicated the manufacturing sector grew the most in 14 months.

On Monday, the yen fell to 160 per dollar for the first time since 1990 before making a more than 3% jump to 154.5 per dollar due to a supposed intervention by Japanese authorities. Meanwhile, the government has not confirmed whether it has intervened in the markets to support the yen, although chief currency diplomat Masato Kanda said they would release the results at the end of next month. Japan’s March 2024 retail sales rose 1.2% year-on-year, slowing significantly from the upwardly revised 4.7% rise in February and well below market expectations for a 2.5% rise. Nevertheless, it was the 25th consecutive month of retail sales growth as consumption in Japan continued to rise.

Flash data showed that retail sales in Australia fell by 0.4% in March 2024, falling short of the 0.2% growth projection, which was also revised down from February. It was the first decline in retail sales since December last year, as turnover fell across all sectors.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,116.17 +16.21 (+0.32%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,386.09 +146.43 (+0.38%)

DAX (DE40) 18,118.32 −42.69 (−0.24%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,147.03 +7.20 (+0.09%)

USD Index 105.64 −0.32 (−0.30%)

• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – China Non-Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
• – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
• – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – German GDP (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.