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Archive for Financial News – Page 141

Japanese yen shows volatility amid speculation of intervention

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is hovering around 155.00 on Monday, having earlier touched a new 34-year peak at 160.00. Market rumours suggest that the Japanese authorities might have intervened in the currency market, although there has been no official confirmation. Today’s market movement is particularly notable due to a public holiday in Japan, which has resulted in minimal market liquidity. This scenario made it relatively easy for investors to prompt significant changes in the quotes.

Last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its monetary policy foundation, keeping the interest rate steady at 0-0.1% per annum. Market participants were left disappointed, as they had anticipated a more pronounced reaction from the BoJ.

The primary driver of the yen’s ongoing weakness is the significant discrepancy between the interest rates set by the BoJ and the US Federal Reserve. This interest rate gap exerts substantial pressure on the yen, making any actual intervention largely ineffective. The BoJ, aware of this reality, has thus far limited its actions to verbal interventions to influence the yen’s value.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart of USD/JPY, a growth wave reaching the level of 160.16 was realised. The structure of the first impulse of decline to 154.70 is currently forming. Once this level is reached, a correction to 157.35 (testing from below) is anticipated, potentially followed by a new wave of decline towards 152.32, with the prospect of continuing the trend to 149.65. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD oscillator, which is positioned above zero at the highs but is expected to decline to new lows.

On the H1 chart, the upward growth wave to 160.16 has been completed. We are now observing the formation of the first impulse of the decline wave. The local target of this downside impulse at 155.15 has been achieved. We anticipate a corrective move to 157.35 (testing from below). Subsequently, the next phase of the downward trend to 154.65 is expected, which is the primary target. After completing this, a correction back to 157.35 may be considered. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish outlook, with its signal line below 50 and pointing strictly downwards.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Apr

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Weekly Changes led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 23th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 5-Year Bonds (103,933 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (8,119 contracts) and the Fed Funds (536 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-104,410 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-34,423 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-25,928 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-5,407 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-3,700 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (81 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (76 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (66 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 5-Year Bonds (24 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (81.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (81.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (31.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (33.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (50.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (49.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (76.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (78.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (65.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (67.3 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (48.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (53.7 percent)

Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Fed Funds (54 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (12 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-34 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-21 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (54.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (52.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-2.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (32.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-21.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-5.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (11.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-34.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-12.5 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -232,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -104,410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -127,967 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	58.3	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	56.0	0.4
– Net Position:	-232,377	237,071	-4,694
– Gross Longs:	1,467,240	5,894,339	33,941
– Gross Shorts:	1,699,617	5,657,268	38,635
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	51.8	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.1	34.0	0.9

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 59,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	61.8	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	64.8	2.2
– Net Position:	59,264	-57,401	-1,863
– Gross Longs:	397,936	1,161,610	40,379
– Gross Shorts:	338,672	1,219,011	42,242
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.2	17.5	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.5	-53.5	-6.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -980,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -946,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	79.1	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.0	58.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-980,726	855,608	125,118
– Gross Longs:	518,847	3,206,411	264,099
– Gross Shorts:	1,499,573	2,350,803	138,981
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	65.3	91.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	2.7	2.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,090,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 103,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,194,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	66.7	5.2
– Net Position:	-1,090,289	970,956	119,333
– Gross Longs:	458,988	4,946,205	426,940
– Gross Shorts:	1,549,277	3,975,249	307,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	72.0	88.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-13.7	1.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -353,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -362,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	67.9	9.1
– Net Position:	-353,920	356,954	-3,034
– Gross Longs:	546,367	3,404,137	405,097
– Gross Shorts:	900,287	3,047,183	408,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	40.7	72.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.3	-26.0	-9.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -25,928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -213,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.4	76.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	61.3	14.0
– Net Position:	-239,527	318,016	-78,489
– Gross Longs:	234,270	1,578,675	209,370
– Gross Shorts:	473,797	1,260,659	287,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.8	93.6	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.5	27.7	-3.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -21,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	70.1	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	71.1	10.5
– Net Position:	-21,171	-14,335	35,506
– Gross Longs:	252,737	1,086,997	198,692
– Gross Shorts:	273,908	1,101,332	163,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	9.1	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-5.3	-14.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -298,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -294,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	80.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	61.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-298,500	302,463	-3,963
– Gross Longs:	142,473	1,297,057	173,986
– Gross Shorts:	440,973	994,594	177,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.8	44.5	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-0.3	-16.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

28 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 23th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (4,474 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (2,350 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (1,985 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the DowJones-Mini (-6,827 contracts) with the S&P500-Mini (-6,436 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,404 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by VIX & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (96 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (75 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (71 percent) and Nikkei 225 (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nasdaq-Mini (49 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (95.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (90.8 percent)
S&P500-Mini (74.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (75.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (71.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (48.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (59.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (57.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (68.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (72.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (62.6 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (60.6 percent)

S&P500-Mini & VIX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (46 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The VIX (34 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-14 percent) and the Russell-Mini (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (33.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (25.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (45.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (41.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-1.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (7.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-12.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (10.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (17.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (8.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,474 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,474 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	41.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.6	34.8	8.1
– Net Position:	-18,000	23,471	-5,471
– Gross Longs:	89,831	150,091	24,178
– Gross Shorts:	107,831	126,620	29,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	5.2	68.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.7	-29.9	-20.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	67.8	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	77.0	8.0
– Net Position:	67,678	-189,951	122,273
– Gross Longs:	320,552	1,402,033	288,399
– Gross Shorts:	252,874	1,591,984	166,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.8	13.7	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.9	-45.8	9.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	62.0	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	70.5	13.2
– Net Position:	6,852	-7,730	878
– Gross Longs:	19,266	56,280	12,873
– Gross Shorts:	12,414	64,010	11,995
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.4	27.0	48.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	14.6	-6.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 6,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,404 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	55.3	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	62.5	12.3
– Net Position:	6,125	-18,478	12,353
– Gross Longs:	63,431	141,714	43,786
– Gross Shorts:	57,306	160,192	31,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	32.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-10.8	12.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,100 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.2	77.8	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	71.5	4.6
– Net Position:	-36,100	30,140	5,960
– Gross Longs:	72,411	371,751	27,723
– Gross Shorts:	108,511	341,611	21,763
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.5	39.8	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	9.7	6.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	69.6	24.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	69.5	15.8
– Net Position:	-1,384	11	1,373
– Gross Longs:	922	10,929	3,849
– Gross Shorts:	2,306	10,918	2,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.4	30.3	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-3.2	-11.8

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,985 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	89.4	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	89.8	1.6
– Net Position:	-3,647	-1,739	5,386
– Gross Longs:	31,113	377,781	12,016
– Gross Shorts:	34,760	379,520	6,630
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.6	35.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-14.1	-17.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

28 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Soybean Meal

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 23th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Meal

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (44,689 contracts) with Soybean Meal (27,275 contracts), Wheat (19,506 contracts), Soybeans (17,323 contracts), Live Cattle (4,542 contracts), Soybean Oil (3,205 contracts), also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-23,470 contracts), Sugar (-17,463 contracts), Coffee (-4,157 contracts), Cocoa (-4,251 contracts) and Lean Hogs (125 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Softs Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

On the downside, Sugar (7 percent), Soybeans (10 percent), Soybean Oil (11 percent) and the Corn (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (13.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (7.6 percent)
Sugar (6.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.2 percent)
Coffee (96.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybeans (9.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (11.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (22.1 percent)
Live Cattle (30.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (25.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (76.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (76.1 percent)
Cotton (30.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (48.1 percent)
Cocoa (40.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.5 percent)
Wheat (37.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.8 percent)

Soybean Meal & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (29 percent) and Lean Hogs (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (15 percent), Wheat (7 percent) and Soybeans (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cotton (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Live Cattle (-27 percent), Cocoa (-17 percent) and Sugar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (3.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.2 percent)
Sugar (-14.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-7.0 percent)
Coffee (15.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (22.0 percent)
Soybeans (5.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (9.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (29.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (19.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-27.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (20.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (18.6 percent)
Cotton (-51.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-36.7 percent)
Cocoa (-16.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-9.7 percent)
Wheat (7.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-12.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -160,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 44,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -204,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	44.7	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.7	33.3	10.7
– Net Position:	-160,168	172,388	-12,220
– Gross Longs:	288,529	676,526	149,210
– Gross Shorts:	448,697	504,138	161,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	85.8	91.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-3.4	-2.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 45,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,564 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	54.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	59.4	8.7
– Net Position:	45,101	-39,150	-5,951
– Gross Longs:	197,297	451,980	66,162
– Gross Shorts:	152,196	491,130	72,113
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.9	97.4	8.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	15.4	-13.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 71,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,157 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	34.9	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	66.6	2.1
– Net Position:	71,914	-75,215	3,301
– Gross Longs:	93,736	82,876	8,334
– Gross Shorts:	21,822	158,091	5,033
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.0	3.5	58.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-16.4	19.9

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -154,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 17,323 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -171,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	58.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	39.3	7.4
– Net Position:	-154,570	159,322	-4,752
– Gross Longs:	96,430	479,373	55,609
– Gross Shorts:	251,000	320,051	60,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	89.3	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-7.1	15.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -31,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,546 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	51.3	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	45.9	4.9
– Net Position:	-31,341	31,005	336
– Gross Longs:	115,457	291,905	28,361
– Gross Shorts:	146,798	260,900	28,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.2	89.7	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	0.3	-6.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 27,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	44.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	51.4	6.1
– Net Position:	14,443	-31,560	17,117
– Gross Longs:	120,442	211,556	45,894
– Gross Shorts:	105,999	243,116	28,777
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.3	65.2	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-28.6	3.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,553 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.5	35.4	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	50.0	12.2
– Net Position:	47,553	-39,851	-7,702
– Gross Longs:	99,621	96,676	25,617
– Gross Shorts:	52,068	136,527	33,319
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	74.0	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	32.7	-7.9

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	32.9	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	48.6	10.6
– Net Position:	56,616	-47,302	-9,314
– Gross Longs:	122,474	98,812	22,604
– Gross Shorts:	65,858	146,114	31,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	26.0	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-17.9	-21.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.6	41.5	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	56.8	5.4
– Net Position:	28,859	-31,088	2,229
– Gross Longs:	74,765	84,774	13,337
– Gross Shorts:	45,906	115,862	11,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.4	69.3	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.7	51.4	-43.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	32.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	55.9	4.3
– Net Position:	29,584	-35,403	5,819
– Gross Longs:	51,685	50,137	12,440
– Gross Shorts:	22,101	85,540	6,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	56.5	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	15.7	4.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -43,391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	36.1	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	24.0	8.6
– Net Position:	-43,391	45,239	-1,848
– Gross Longs:	123,697	135,439	30,321
– Gross Shorts:	167,088	90,200	32,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	60.4	58.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-7.8	0.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

26 Apr

Today, investors’ focus is on the PCE Price Index inflation report

By JustMarkets

As of Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down 0.98%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.46%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.64%. US stock indices closed modestly lower, led by technological stock weakness. Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 10% after forecasting second-quarter revenue below consensus and raising its full-year total expense estimate. IBM (IBM) also fell more than 8% after it reported weak first-quarter earnings from its consulting division. In addition, shares of Caterpillar (CAT) fell more than 6% after the company said it expects second-quarter sales to decline from a year ago. Stock losses also accelerated after bond yields jumped on signs of a strengthening labor market when weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 2-month low, a hawkish factor for Fed policy.

US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 5,000 to a 2-month low of 207,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 215,000. US Q1 GDP was revised downward to 1.6% (q/q annualized) from 3.4%, weaker than expectations of 2.5%, and Q1 personal consumption was revised downward to 2.5% from 3.3%, weaker than expectations of 3.0%.

Microsoft said Thursday that its profit rose by 20% for January-March. Based on licensing the Windows operating system, Microsoft’s personal computer business earned $15.6 billion in the quarter, up 17% from a year ago. Microsoft shares rose about 4% in trading. The company said it intends to spend even more in the coming months to build infrastructure to build and operate artificial intelligence systems.

The PCE inflation report will be released in the US today. The March Personal Consumption Goods Price Index is predicted to show a mixed picture of inflationary trends, which could strengthen the US Federal Reserve’s resolve to refrain from raising interest rates. Nearly all Fed officials who have spoken recently have reiterated that the Central Bank is not ready to cut rates. Analysts at BofA expect the Fed to start cutting rates in December at quarterly intervals. For gold and indices to continue to rise, it is now crucial for inflation to continue to decline, as rising oil prices could start a new spiral of inflation unwinding.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.95%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down by 0.93%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.40% cheaper, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.48%. The GfK German Consumer Confidence Index for May rose by 3.1 to a 2-year high of 24.2, beating expectations of 26.0.

ECB Governing Council spokesman Muller said yesterday that he does not favor cutting interest rates for the second consecutive meeting after an expected first cut in June. His counterpart, ECB Governing Council spokesman Panetta, said ECB rate cuts need to be made soon because “unnecessary delays could leave the ECB uncomfortably close to the effective lower bound if stagflation takes root and inflation expectations fall below target.”

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 2.16%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was up 0.52% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was not trading.

The Japanese yen fell to 156 per dollar, the first time since May 1990, as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left interest rates unchanged despite pressure from the sharply declining currency. Meanwhile, the Central Bank revised its inflation forecasts and said the economy will likely continue growing healthy. Investors also reacted to data that Tokyo’s core inflation rate slowed to a two-year low of 1.6% in April. The yen has lost about 10% against the dollar this year as the Bank of Japan kept rates near zero despite interest rate hikes in other major economies, prompting traders to borrow yen and invest in higher-yielding currencies.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,048.42 −23.21 (−0.46%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,085.80 −375.12 (−0.98%)

DAX (DE40) 17,917.28 −171.42 (−0.95%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,078.86 +38.48 (+0.48%)

USD Index 105.57 −0.28 (−0.27%)

Important events today:

– Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Australia Producer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– Japan BoJ Press Conference at 09:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

26 Apr

Gold price recovers amid uncertain US economic outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of a troy ounce of gold climbed to 2330.00 USD on Friday. This surge was driven by investors’ ongoing evaluation of the potential direction of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy following mixed macroeconomic data.

The US GDP for Q1 did not meet expectations, marking the slowest recovery in two years. The economy expanded by only 1.6%, significantly lower than the forecasted 2.5%. In contrast, GDP growth in Q4 2023 reached 3.4%. The Fed’s consensus forecast for 2024 expects economic growth of 2.1%.

The underwhelming economic performance might prompt the Fed to consider a reduction in interest rates. However, a localised acceleration in consumer inflation suggests that monetary policy might remain restrictive for longer.

As long as interest rates remain high, gold’s appeal as an investment option is somewhat diminished since it does not generate its yield as bonds do. Nonetheless, in times of rising inflation, gold increasingly becomes a valuable hedge against currency devaluation.

Today, the stock exchange will focus on the March Core PCE figures. These data are expected to provide further insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart of XAU/USD, a consolidation range has formed above 2346.00, with the ongoing development of the third wave of decline aiming for 2262.22. The local target for this wave at 2296.96 has been reached. Today, a corrective move towards 2346.00 is expected, followed by an anticipated further decline to 2262.22. This bearish scenario is supported technically by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and is trending downwards towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, the corrective movement towards 2346.00 (testing from below) is continuing. Once completed, a new downward wave towards 2277.00 is expected, potentially reaching 2262.22. This outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 but poised for a decline towards 20.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

26 Apr

This “Bullish Buzz” Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years

Learn what the AIM Index reveals

By Elliott Wave International

Yes, there’s been a recent pickup in stock market volatility, but overall, bullish sentiment remains very much alive and well.

Indeed, here’s a Feb. 18 Yahoo! Finance headline:

A Bull Market is Here.

On April 9, a Fox Business headline reflects the views of a well-known investment manager:

Fed doesn’t matter in this bull market

An extreme in bullish sentiment also shows up in the Advisor and Investor Model, which is a very broad measure of market sentiment compiled by SentimenTrader.com. The model is also known as the AIM Index.

This chart and commentary from the April Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets, provide insight:

The AIM Index constantly fluctuates between extremes; what’s unparalleled about it now is how long it’s been pinned to the top of its range. After hitting its highest possible reading of 1.0 on December 19, it stayed above .90 for the entirety of the first quarter for all but one week. This relentless bullish buzz is represented here by the index’s 20-week average. At 0.93, the April 2 reading is the highest in 53 years.

Yes, it’s possible that this dogged bullish sentiment could persist even longer. Yet, as you might imagine, Elliott Wave International considers extremes in market sentiment to be major red flags.

The April Elliott Wave Theorist, a monthly publication which analyzes major financial and cultural trends, reveals another cautionary sign via this chart and commentary:

As many pundits are saying, the market is not beyond the valuation of 2021, so what’s the problem? But that was the year of the most overvalued U.S. stock market of all time, from which broad indexes such as the Russell 2000 have not recovered. That optimism has returned to an equivalent level is a big deal. …

This is an especially critical time to keep on top of the stock market’s Elliott wave pattern.

If you’re unfamiliar with Elliott wave analysis, read Frost & Prechter’s Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, which is the definitive text on the subject. Here’s a quote from the book:

[Ralph N.] Elliott recognized that not news, but something else forms the patterns evident in the market. Generally speaking, the important analytical question is not the news per se, but the importance the market places or appears to place on the news. In periods of increasing optimism, the market’s apparent reaction to an item of news is often different from what it would have been if the market were in a downtrend. It is easy to label the progression of Elliott waves on a historical price chart, but it is impossible to pick out, say, the occurrences of war, the most dramatic of human activities, on the basis of recorded stock market action. The psychology of the market in relation to the news, then, is sometimes useful, especially when the market acts contrarily to what one would “normally” expect.

If you’d like to read the entire online version of Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, you can get complimentary access by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline This “Bullish Buzz” Reaches Highest Level in 53 Years. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News

25 Apr

FastSpring and EBANX Forge Partnership to Expand Pix Payments for Digital Products in Brazil

Through the integration, the companies aim to provide the best payment experience to Brazilian clients through local payments via the fast-growing and highly adopted Pix

Curitiba, BRAZIL, April 25, 2024 – FastSpring, the leading merchant of record for global SaaS and software companies, and EBANX, a global technology company specializing in payments for rising markets, announce today a partnership to enhance users’ payment experience within FastSpring’s product suite in Latin America through local payment method Pix.

Pix, Brazil’s instant payment system introduced by the Central Bank of Brazil in 2020, has rapidly gained popularity among consumers as a preferred digital payment method. According to market data from EBANX’s annual study, Beyond Borders, Pix is projected to account for 40% of the total value of digital commerce in Brazil by 2026, tied with credit cards in market share. Furthermore, Pix is expected to comprise 20% of digital commerce transactions within Latin America by the same year.

As part of this partnership, FastSpring’s platform will integrate EBANX’s Pix payment processing capabilities, enabling global SaaS, software, video game, and digital product companies to offer Pix payments to Brazilian customers seamlessly. This partnership also allows Brazilian digital products companies to utilize FastSpring’s platform to power their global expansion while seamlessly maintaining Pix payments for their consumers at home. This integration marks FastSpring’s debut in accepting Pix payments and reinforces its commitment to providing localized payment solutions to its clients in the Latin American market.

“This partnership with EBANX allows FastSpring to leverage local payments, starting with the largest Latin American market, by delivering one of the country’s preferred payment methods,” stated Dan Garcia, Sr. Director of Payments, Risk, and Compliance at FastSpring. “The FastSpring platform enables sellers of digital goods to accept the most popular global payment methods. Adding Pix opens up the Brazilian market to new buyers who do not have internationally enabled cards. It’s a must-have payment method in Brazil. Our partnership with EBANX enables this code-free upgrade for our customers.”

EBANX, known for its expertise in facilitating cross-border payments in Latin America, will serve as the exclusive partner processing Pix payments for FastSpring in Brazil. Through EBANX’s extensive regional knowledge and infrastructure, FastSpring aims to streamline payment processes and enhance the overall purchasing experience for its clients and their customers in Brazil.

“The collaboration between FastSpring and EBANX means a significant step forward in providing tailored payment solutions for digital product companies operating in Brazil,” commented Gregory Cornwell, Vice-President of Channels and Business Development at EBANX. “By integrating Pix payments into FastSpring’s platform, we are facilitating access to a key payment method in the Brazilian market, ultimately enabling businesses to expand their reach and drive growth.”

In addition to Pix, FastSpring’s platform offers a comprehensive suite of e-commerce solutions, including merchant of record services that handle tax calculation, collection, and remittance, thereby reducing operational complexities and costs for digital product companies expanding globally.

ABOUT FASTSPRING

FastSpring powers global payments for SaaS and software companies, video game publishers, and other digital goods businesses. As a merchant of record, FastSpring provides a fully managed payment solution including checkout, fraud mitigation, comprehensive sales tax and VAT compliance, and more. Founded in 2005, FastSpring is a privately owned company headquartered in California with offices in the UK, the Netherlands, and Canada.

For more information:

Website: https://fastspring.com/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fastspring/

ABOUT EBANX

EBANX is the leading payment platform connecting global companies with customers from one of the fastest-growing digital markets in the world. The company was founded in 2012 in Brazil with the mission of giving people access to buy in international digital commerce. With powerful proprietary technology and infrastructure, combined with in-depth knowledge of the markets where it operates, EBANX enables global businesses to connect with hundreds of payment methods in different countries in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. EBANX goes beyond payments, increasing sales, and fostering seamless purchase experiences for businesses and clients.

For more information:

Website: https://www.ebanx.com/en/

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ebanx

Finance Press Release Financial News

25 Apr

Target Thursdays: NAS100, Robusta Coffee, USDCHF

By ForexTime

NAS100 bulls pocket 4000 points!

FXTM’s Robusta Coffee hits record high

USDCHF secures all bearish targets

It has been an eventful week thanks to corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world.

And things could liven up further due to more earnings releases and high impact economic reports.

Here are how these discussed instruments performed this week:

1) NAS100 bounces from 17,000 level

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

In our week ahead article published on Friday, 19th April:

We cautioned that more volatility could be on the horizon and highlighted that “should 17,000 prove to be reliable support, this may open a path back towards the 100-day SMA at 17,400….”

What happened since TP was published?

After testing the 17,000 level last Friday, the NAS100 rebounded earlier this week due to soft US data and optimism around tech earnings.

The Index rallied on Tuesday evening as Tesla stocks surged in pre-market after publishing its earnings. However, bears were back in action on Wednesday evening after Meta shares tumbled in after-hours trading.

Note: NAS100 could see more volatility due to earnings from Microsoft & Alphabet after US markets close on Thursday.

How much in potential profits?

A handsome 4000 points for traders who entered NAS100 from the 17,000 level.

2) Robusta Coffee hits fresh all-time high

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

Earlier in the week, we discussed how fundamental forces were powering Robusta Coffee higher.

We identified how “prices seem to be in a range on the H1 charts with support around $4130 and resistance at $4280.”

What happened since TP was published?

Robusta Coffee soared to a new record high on Wednesday as crop concerns in Vietnam and Brazil fuelled concerns over tight global supplies.

Prices charged past the $4280 resistance level, punching above $4372.85 to create a fresh all-time high.

How much in potential profits?

Traders who took advantage of the breakout and exited at $4372.85 would have caught a 2% move to the upside.

3) USDCHF secures all bearish targets

Where and when was Target Price (TP) published?

This technical scenario (USDCHF) is based on the FXTM Signals that are posted twice a day (before the London and New York sessions) for all FXTM clients to follow.

It can be found in the MyFXTM profile under Trading Services… FXTM Trading Signals.

What happened since TP was published?

The USDCHF slipped this morning as the Dollar weakened against most G10 currencies.

How much in potential profits?

USDCHF has hit all bearish targets.

Traders who entered at 0.91394 and exited at the final target level of 0.91265 would have gained 13 pips.

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

25 Apr

QCOM wants to create competition in the AI chip market. Hong Kong index hits five-month high

By JustMarkets

At Wednesday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was down 0.11%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.10%. The US stock indices traded mixed, with the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) hitting weekly highs. Strengthening technology stocks provided support for the overall market. However, the broader market’s gains were limited as rising bond yields pressured equities. On the positive side, shares of Tesla (TSLA) rose more than 12% despite weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings per share after the company said it would accelerate the launch of less expensive models as early as this year. Also on Wednesday, semiconductor stocks rose after Texas Instruments (TXM) reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and projected second-quarter profit above consensus.

On Wednesday, chip developer Qualcomm (QCOM) announced its latest chips designed to run Windows software on laptops. Qualcomm is thus entering the AI race and potentially competing with software developers such as Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD). It introduced the Arm (ARM)-based Snapdragon X Plus chip for Windows laptops, having previously announced the more powerful Snapdragon X Elite chips for Windows. These chips will be available in mid-2024 and are designed to consider the latest lineup of chips from rival Intel’s Core Ultra and Apple’s (AAPL) M3.

Meta (META) achieved record first-quarter sales, showing strong growth in its advertising business thanks to new advances in artificial intelligence. The company announced a substantial increase in revenue to $36.5 billion, up 27% year-over-year, setting a new record for the January through March period and beating analysts’ expectations. However, the company provided a softer revenue outlook for the second quarter, forecasting between $36.5 billion and $39 billion, averaging 18% growth for the year – below analysts’ average forecast of $38.3 billion. This conservative outlook caused Meta’s shares to fall by — 11% in extended trading, reflecting investor concerns about the company’s ability to grow at the pace it has previously.

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell 0.27%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.17%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.43%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.26%.

WTI crude oil futures faced downward pressure on Thursday as investors weighed the potential impact of a delayed US rate cut on the demand outlook. Traders were wary of the prospect of the Fed taking longer to raise rates amid a string of solid inflation and employment data. Markets now await Thursday’s US GDP data and the PCE Price Index report, which the Fed prefers to release on Friday, to determine the future outlook. However, official data showed that US crude inventories fell by 6.37 million barrels last week, contradicting expectations of a 1.6 million barrel increase. Meanwhile, supply concerns eased as tensions in the Middle East continued to reduce, and Iran and Israel signaled no further military action against each other.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose 2.42%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.35% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 2.21%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed at its opening price. The Hang Seng Index (HK50) hit its highest level in nearly five months as positive outlooks for Chinese and Hong Kong equities from central investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, continued to lift sentiment.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly reached 1.8% in March 2024, unchanged for the second consecutive month but below market forecasts of 2%. The latest result remained at the highest level since October 2023.

The Japanese yen breached 155 per dollar on Thursday, falling to new 34-year lows as the Bank of Japan begins its two-day monetary policy meeting. The BoJ is expected to leave rates unchanged after exiting negative rates in March. Still, traders will watch for any hawkish signals as the yen weakens, breaking through a psychologically crucial level market previously thought would prompt Tokyo to act.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,071.63 +1.08 (+0.02%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,460.92 −42.77 (−0.11%)

DAX (DE40) 18,088.70 −48.95 (−0.27%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,040.38 −4.43 (−0.055%)

USD Index 105.83 +0.15 (+0.14%)

Important events today:

– Eurozone GfK German Consumer Climate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.