COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 64

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Speculators drop 5-Year Treasury bets to 215-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

5-Year, 10-Year drops lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (65,490 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (17,631 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 5-Year Bond (-129,257 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-72,434 contracts), the Fed Funds (-46,249 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-27,703 contracts), the Long US Bond (-11,444 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (-6,362 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the further decrease in speculator positions for the 5-Year Bonds market. The large speculator position in 5-Year Bonds futures fell this week by the largest one-week amount (-129,257 contracts) since February and have now dropped for the third time out of the past four weeks (a total decline of -159,151 contracts over last 4-week period). This weakness in speculator bets for the 5-Year Bond has brought the overall level to its most bearish point of the past 215 weeks. The last time the 5-Year Bond bets were this bearish was October 23rd of 2018 with a total of -773,639 contracts at that time. Despite the speculator weakness, the 5-Year Bond future prices have come off their November lows and touched their highest level since September this week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,263,670	0	-1,643,862	23	1,944,031	76	-300,169	38
FedFunds	1,323,028	31	-78,867	30	87,745	71	-8,878	37
2-Year	2,109,988	15	-534,540	8	529,893	91	4,647	54
Long T-Bond	1,170,663	37	-115,361	47	90,700	43	24,661	72
10-Year	3,775,431	49	-369,206	16	483,149	79	-113,943	53
5-Year	4,130,322	59	-658,606	0	770,224	100	-111,618	50

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) leads the bonds category.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (0.0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent), the 2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (29.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (8.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (16.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (27.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (47.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (50.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (26.3 percent)
Eurodollar (22.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (21.7 percent)

Eurodollar tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (4.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent), the 5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent), the Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-18.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-7.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-27.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-28.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-26.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-18.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-7.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-8.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
Eurodollar (4.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (6.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,643,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 65,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,709,352 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	69.4	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	42.6	9.0
– Net Position:	-1,643,862	1,944,031	-300,169
– Gross Longs:	548,998	5,041,684	353,408
– Gross Shorts:	2,192,860	3,097,653	653,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	75.8	38.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-1.0	-43.2

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -78,867 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -46,249 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,618 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	78.6	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.9	2.9
– Net Position:	-78,867	87,745	-8,878
– Gross Longs:	114,699	1,039,303	30,010
– Gross Shorts:	193,566	951,558	38,888
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	18.5	-3.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -534,540 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,362 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -528,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	82.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	56.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-534,540	529,893	4,647
– Gross Longs:	171,760	1,730,674	174,708
– Gross Shorts:	706,300	1,200,781	170,061
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	90.8	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	16.4	34.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -658,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -129,257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -529,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	85.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	67.0	10.1
– Net Position:	-658,606	770,224	-111,618
– Gross Longs:	229,001	3,537,413	303,580
– Gross Shorts:	887,607	2,767,189	415,198
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.1	25.5	-7.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -369,206 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -72,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -296,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	77.2	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	64.4	11.9
– Net Position:	-369,206	483,149	-113,943
– Gross Longs:	423,994	2,914,741	336,179
– Gross Shorts:	793,200	2,431,592	450,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.3	79.3	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	22.1	-15.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -106,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,703 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.9	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	64.5	17.2
– Net Position:	-106,952	189,505	-82,553
– Gross Longs:	142,263	1,099,122	160,187
– Gross Shorts:	249,215	909,617	242,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.0	88.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	7.8	-1.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -115,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.7	79.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	71.7	12.7
– Net Position:	-115,361	90,700	24,661
– Gross Longs:	55,349	930,571	173,282
– Gross Shorts:	170,710	839,871	148,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	42.9	72.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	15.3	-3.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -371,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 17,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -389,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.9	83.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.0	61.5	8.0
– Net Position:	-371,773	317,929	53,844
– Gross Longs:	56,272	1,193,551	168,437
– Gross Shorts:	428,045	875,622	114,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	68.3	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	5.8	8.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

10 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Corn bullish bets to 19-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (19,835 contracts) with Cocoa (8,266 contracts), Sugar (4,089 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,409 contracts), Soybeans (2,453 contracts), Cotton (2,140 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,229 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-71,867 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-37,543 contracts), Wheat (-6,592 contracts) and Coffee (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent drop in Corn‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn decreased sharply this week and by the largest one-week amount since 2018 with a -71,867 contract decline. Overall, Corn bets have now fallen by -142,413 net speculator contracts in just the past five weeks, going from a total of +340,788 contracts on November 1st to a total of +198,375 contracts this week. This week’s total is the least bullish level in the past nineteen weeks, dating back to July 26th.

Corn futures prices have been in retreat since peaking in April of this year as the front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over 644’0. This is down almost 20 percent from the April peak, however, Corn does remain in an uptrend on the weekly charts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (56.9 percent) and Corn (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (1.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.6 percent)
Sugar (56.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (55.5 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (38.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (37.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (48.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.5 percent)
Live Cattle (48.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.1 percent)
Cotton (21.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (34.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.4 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Sugar leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Sugar (24.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (19.3 percent), Soybeans (10.3 percent) and Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-29.9 percent) and Wheat (-26.4 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week. The next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-16.8 percent), Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) and Cotton (-4.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.4 percent)
Sugar (24.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.1 percent)
Coffee (-29.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-38.9 percent)
Soybeans (10.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-1.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.6 percent)
Cotton (-4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.2 percent)
Cocoa (19.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.5 percent)
Wheat (-26.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-29.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 198,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -71,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	48.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	61.2	13.2
– Net Position:	198,375	-157,536	-40,839
– Gross Longs:	315,270	597,177	121,431
– Gross Shorts:	116,895	754,713	162,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.4	49.5	20.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.8	16.5	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 183,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.1	45.0	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	70.6	5.5
– Net Position:	183,124	-226,066	42,942
– Gross Longs:	282,673	396,317	91,614
– Gross Shorts:	99,549	622,383	48,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.3	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.5	-24.7	18.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	54.8	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	48.4	3.8
– Net Position:	-14,642	12,907	1,735
– Gross Longs:	40,476	111,365	9,524
– Gross Shorts:	55,118	98,458	7,789
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.0	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.9	28.8	-3.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 89,661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	51.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	60.9	12.1
– Net Position:	89,661	-59,882	-29,779
– Gross Longs:	160,518	319,120	45,508
– Gross Shorts:	70,857	379,002	75,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.5	71.3	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-8.0	-13.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -37,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	47.0	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	66,311	-78,867	12,556
– Gross Longs:	106,474	204,193	36,717
– Gross Shorts:	40,163	283,060	24,161
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	50.6	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	17.0	-0.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 122,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.0	37.9	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	74.4	7.3
– Net Position:	122,174	-141,761	19,587
– Gross Longs:	140,034	147,251	47,971
– Gross Shorts:	17,860	289,012	28,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.5	9.2	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-0.3	-28.4

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	32.8	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	50.6	12.3
– Net Position:	55,263	-52,026	-3,237
– Gross Longs:	108,912	95,851	32,667
– Gross Shorts:	53,649	147,877	35,904
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	42.0	79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	13.3	-3.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	35.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.9	12.6
– Net Position:	38,908	-28,396	-10,512
– Gross Longs:	76,849	67,376	13,694
– Gross Shorts:	37,941	95,772	24,206
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	62.5	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	2.4	-2.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	47.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.6	57.8	5.3
– Net Position:	18,720	-20,658	1,938
– Gross Longs:	64,807	92,047	12,243
– Gross Shorts:	46,087	112,705	10,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.5	78.5	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	3.5	6.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	47.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	55.8	3.1
– Net Position:	17,964	-21,713	3,749
– Gross Longs:	83,808	122,383	11,758
– Gross Shorts:	65,844	144,096	8,009
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.6	66.0	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-21.1	17.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	40.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.5	27.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-39,897	42,820	-2,923
– Gross Longs:	95,846	135,857	34,182
– Gross Shorts:	135,743	93,037	37,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	27.0	21.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

03 Dec

Currency Speculators up their Mexican Peso bets higher for 8th time in 9 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican peso (2,767 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (827 contracts) and the Swiss franc (229 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-4,444 contracts) and the Japanese yen (-2,544 contracts) with the Australian dollar (-1,844 contracts), the Brazilian real (-1,099 contracts), the Euro (-865 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-770 contracts), the British pound sterling (-642 contracts) and Bitcoin (-382 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the eighth time out of the past nine weeks. Peso bets have now improved by a total of +107,408 contracts over that nine-week period going from a standing of -41,322 contracts on September 27th to +66,086 contracts through Tuesday.

The peso positioning has been helped out by the rising interest rates in Mexico that have reached 10 percent with expectations of another 50 basis point increase in December. Peso prices have also been on the rise higher against the US Dollar recently and are up by over 6 percent (vs USD) since late-September. The peso is also one of the rare currencies to be up overall against the US Dollar in 2022.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	46,836	60	24,892	66	-28,492	31	3,600	56
EUR	695,776	77	122,247	73	-154,585	32	32,338	31
GBP	225,480	52	-36,584	38	49,232	68	-12,648	33
JPY	228,328	67	-67,394	27	82,669	76	-15,275	22
CHF	41,360	25	-14,247	17	19,970	78	-5,723	38
CAD	136,654	21	-16,116	23	13,951	80	2,165	34
AUD	159,378	52	-44,630	43	50,906	57	-6,276	37
NZD	46,180	39	-5,054	48	4,641	52	413	56
MXN	307,733	99	66,086	56	-72,759	42	6,673	71
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	32,057	16	7,637	56	-9,659	44	2,022	85
Bitcoin	16,832	90	324	83	-780	0	456	23

Bitcoin, EuroFX lead Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (82.6 percent) and the EuroFX (72.5 percent) lead the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores but the Dollar has been losing steam over the past weeks and months.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (65.1 percent)
EuroFX (72.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (37.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (22.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (27.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (47.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (49.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (55.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (56.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (57.2 percent)
Bitcoin (82.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.3 percent)

Strength Trends led by Mexican Peso

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (37.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent), the EuroFX (22.7 percent) and the Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-19.3 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-18.8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was the US Dollar Index (-13.0 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-14.5 percent)
EuroFX (22.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (26.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (7.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-18.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-22.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-10.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (34.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (37.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (41.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (-19.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-17.8 percent)
Bitcoin (5.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-2.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 24,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.6	4.4	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.4	65.3	5.5
– Net Position:	24,892	-28,492	3,600
– Gross Longs:	37,279	2,079	6,199
– Gross Shorts:	12,387	30,571	2,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	30.5	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	13.5	-7.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 122,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -865 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	51.3	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	73.5	7.1
– Net Position:	122,247	-154,585	32,338
– Gross Longs:	241,122	356,905	81,867
– Gross Shorts:	118,875	511,490	49,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	32.2	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.7	-23.8	15.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	76.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	54.5	15.1
– Net Position:	-36,584	49,232	-12,648
– Gross Longs:	26,000	172,199	21,363
– Gross Shorts:	62,584	122,967	34,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.6	67.5	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-18.4	24.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -67,394 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	76.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.8	40.0	16.5
– Net Position:	-67,394	82,669	-15,275
– Gross Longs:	28,125	173,959	22,403
– Gross Shorts:	95,519	91,290	37,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	76.0	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.6	-13.7	2.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.6	69.7	25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	21.4	39.7
– Net Position:	-14,247	19,970	-5,723
– Gross Longs:	1,488	28,814	10,696
– Gross Shorts:	15,735	8,844	16,419
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	77.9	38.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.8	1.4	21.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,672 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	48.5	24.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	38.3	22.8
– Net Position:	-16,116	13,951	2,165
– Gross Longs:	35,123	66,304	33,375
– Gross Shorts:	51,239	52,353	31,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.6	80.4	34.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-9.3	13.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -44,630 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,844 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	65.6	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	33.6	13.8
– Net Position:	-44,630	50,906	-6,276
– Gross Longs:	35,045	104,506	15,698
– Gross Shorts:	79,675	53,600	21,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	56.9	37.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.6	1.4	17.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -770 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	50.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.8	40.1	7.1
– Net Position:	-5,054	4,641	413
– Gross Longs:	18,855	23,162	3,691
– Gross Shorts:	23,909	18,521	3,278
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	51.7	56.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-37.6	49.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 66,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,767 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.9	32.0	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	55.6	0.8
– Net Position:	66,086	-72,759	6,673
– Gross Longs:	199,744	98,322	9,226
– Gross Shorts:	133,658	171,081	2,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.5	42.5	71.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-37.1	2.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	36.0	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	66.1	5.1
– Net Position:	7,637	-9,659	2,022
– Gross Longs:	16,500	11,541	3,666
– Gross Shorts:	8,863	21,200	1,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.0	43.6	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.3	19.2	-0.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 706 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.9	0.8	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	80.0	5.4	4.6
– Net Position:	324	-780	456
– Gross Longs:	13,783	127	1,236
– Gross Shorts:	13,459	907	780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.6	26.6	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.6	-4.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

03 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Bloomberg Commodity Index, Wheat lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 29th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Most Bullish and Top Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 93.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled -3,559 net contracts this week. This market usually has a bearish speculator position and currently it is at the lower end of its range that has averaged a weekly position of -10,636 contracts in 2022.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is now at a 87.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 30,733 net contracts this week after rising by 3,561 contracts for the week.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 84.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 102,339 net contracts this week and edged up by 1,269 contracts through Tuesday.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of 324 net contracts this week after falling by -382 speculator contracts this week.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 80.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 9,755 net contracts this week and saw an increase of 6,709 contracts through Tuesday.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -33,305 net contracts this week as the position fell by -5,787 contracts this week.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was a total of -14,636 net contracts this week. Coffee bets rose by 1,550 contracts this week but had fallen for the previous eight straight weeks.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 5.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -529,349 net contracts this week and saw a dip by -5,695 contracts for the week.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s next most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 7.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 239,739 net contracts this week after a decline of -12,736 contracts through Tuesday’s data cutoff.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

03 Dec

Platinum Speculators raise their bullish bets to 38-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT precious metals speculator bets were a little lower this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Platinum (1,769 contracts) with Silver (717 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-6,110 contracts) with Copper (-1,120 contracts) and Palladium (-523 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness of Platinum positions. The large speculator standing in Platinum futures rose this week by +1,769 contracts. Speculator bets have now gained in eight out of the past nine weeks with a total rise of +24,098 contracts over that period. This has pushed the overall speculator’s bullish level for Platinum to its highest level in the past thirty-eight weeks, dating back to March 8th when the net position totaled +25,833 contracts.

Platinum futures prices have also been on the rise since hitting a September low near the $800.00 level. Platinum futures closed out this week right around the $1,026.60 level for an approximate gain by 28 percent since the September 1st low.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,412,121	1	239,739	8	-262,654	93	22,915	37
Gold	433,661	1	110,003	19	-119,233	82	9,230	3
Silver	121,258	0	17,483	33	-28,997	68	11,514	26
Copper	146,760	0	1,984	38	-3,362	64	1,378	33
Palladium	7,537	8	-1,631	14	1,687	84	-56	38
Platinum	66,468	33	24,259	42	-28,762	60	4,503	28
Natural Gas	985,010	7	-163,429	30	136,191	74	27,238	45
Brent	155,500	15	-32,087	57	29,424	42	2,663	45
Heating Oil	266,829	23	30,733	88	-48,255	20	17,522	59
Soybeans	634,754	13	87,208	40	-61,551	68	-25,657	28
Corn	1,226,410	0	270,242	65	-231,169	39	-39,073	21
Coffee	196,365	9	-14,636	2	13,695	99	941	12
Sugar	876,309	34	179,035	56	-222,607	39	43,572	62
Wheat	310,667	10	-33,305	0	37,024	100	-3,719	91

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Platinum (41.7 percent) and Copper (37.9 percent) lead the metals category at the moment. Silver (33.4 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (14.2 percent) and Gold (19.2 percent) are at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish levels.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (19.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (21.2 percent)
Silver (33.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (32.6 percent)
Copper (37.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (38.8 percent)
Platinum (41.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.3 percent)
Palladium (14.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (17.3 percent)

Platinum tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Platinum (21.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Silver (17.9 percent), Copper (17.7 percent) and Gold (11.0 percent) are also positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-2.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (11.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.2 percent)
Silver (17.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (10.3 percent)
Copper (17.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (15.1 percent)
Platinum (21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.3 percent)
Palladium (-2.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 110,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,110 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.2	30.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	58.4	5.7
– Net Position:	110,003	-119,233	9,230
– Gross Longs:	209,161	134,184	33,946
– Gross Shorts:	99,158	253,417	24,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	82.3	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.0	-9.0	-9.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,483 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 717 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,766 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	38.2	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	62.1	8.8
– Net Position:	17,483	-28,997	11,514
– Gross Longs:	48,441	46,270	22,150
– Gross Shorts:	30,958	75,267	10,636
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	67.8	26.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.9	-18.8	17.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,984 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	43.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	45.4	8.3
– Net Position:	1,984	-3,362	1,378
– Gross Longs:	51,433	63,196	13,549
– Gross Shorts:	49,449	66,558	12,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	64.4	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-17.9	4.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.1	29.8	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	73.1	4.4
– Net Position:	24,259	-28,762	4,503
– Gross Longs:	35,268	19,824	7,400
– Gross Shorts:	11,009	48,586	2,897
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.7	59.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-21.6	18.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,631 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.4	52.4	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	30.0	14.8
– Net Position:	-1,631	1,687	-56
– Gross Longs:	2,289	3,951	1,061
– Gross Shorts:	3,920	2,264	1,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.2	83.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.4	10.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

03 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators trim their Eurodollar bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (115,943 contracts) with the 2-Year Bond (38,817 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (25,883 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (24,484 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the Fed Funds (-44,174 contracts) with the Long US Bond (-13,433 contracts), the Ultra US Bond (-12,393 contracts), and the 5-Year Bond (-5,695 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the continued decrease in speculator bearish positions for the Eurodollar market. The large speculator position in Eurodollar futures fell this week for the third straight week and for the eighth time out of the past eleven weeks. This recent trimming of the bearish position has shaved off a total of 1,167,970 contracts – going from a total of -2,877,322 contracts on September 13th to this week’s total of -1,709,352 contracts.

Eurodollar contracts are a bet on short-term interest rates where more bullish bets equal a bet on lower interest rates while more bearish bets means speculators are looking for higher interest rates. The Eurodollar speculator contracts hit a bearish peak on August 9th at a total of -2,885,979 contracts and since then speculators have reduced their bearish bets in eleven out of those sixteen weeks.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,234,801	0	-1,709,352	22	1,952,152	76	-242,800	51
FedFunds	1,641,595	58	-32,618	36	42,973	65	-10,355	33
2-Year	2,099,117	15	-528,178	9	519,516	89	8,662	56
Long T-Bond	1,197,681	42	-103,917	51	66,851	34	37,066	82
10-Year	3,897,383	58	-296,772	27	359,620	65	-62,848	65
5-Year	4,303,419	69	-529,349	5	618,522	89	-89,173	57

US Treasury Bond tops Strength Scores

On the downside, the 5-Year Bond (5.5 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (41.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (8.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (5.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (6.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (23.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (50.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (55.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (26.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (31.4 percent)
Eurodollar (21.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (19.5 percent)

Strength Trends led by Eurodollar & 10-Year Treasury Bond

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (6.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) and the Fed Funds (-7.7 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (1.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-28.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-31.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (-6.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (2.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-0.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-5.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-2.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-14.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-10.9 percent)
Eurodollar (6.8 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (5.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,709,352 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 115,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,825,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.2	68.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	41.6	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,709,352	1,952,152	-242,800
– Gross Longs:	520,547	4,964,242	360,091
– Gross Shorts:	2,229,899	3,012,090	602,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.7	76.0	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-6.3	-3.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -32,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	75.0	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	72.3	2.5
– Net Position:	-32,618	42,973	-10,355
– Gross Longs:	184,273	1,230,567	30,497
– Gross Shorts:	216,891	1,187,594	40,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.6	65.1	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	7.7	-4.2

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -528,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 38,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -566,995 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	81.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	56.3	8.5
– Net Position:	-528,178	519,516	8,662
– Gross Longs:	156,249	1,700,306	186,732
– Gross Shorts:	684,427	1,180,790	178,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	89.2	55.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.6	17.4	34.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -529,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -523,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.4	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	68.0	9.3
– Net Position:	-529,349	618,522	-89,173
– Gross Longs:	316,986	3,544,108	309,862
– Gross Shorts:	846,335	2,925,586	399,035
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	88.7	56.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	3.9	2.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -296,772 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 24,484 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -321,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	75.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-296,772	359,620	-62,848
– Gross Longs:	469,072	2,939,872	351,940
– Gross Shorts:	765,844	2,580,252	414,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	64.6	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-1.4	-1.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -79,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	77.0	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	65.3	17.6
– Net Position:	-79,249	159,553	-80,304
– Gross Longs:	142,588	1,050,386	159,395
– Gross Shorts:	221,837	890,833	239,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	81.2	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.7	2.1	-3.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -103,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	78.8	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	73.2	12.1
– Net Position:	-103,917	66,851	37,066
– Gross Longs:	47,371	943,291	182,448
– Gross Shorts:	151,288	876,440	145,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.8	34.4	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	4.9	3.1

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -389,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -377,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.1	82.7	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	60.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-389,404	331,412	57,992
– Gross Longs:	60,228	1,222,893	175,631
– Gross Shorts:	449,632	891,481	117,639
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.3	75.4	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	11.5	10.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

03 Dec

Soft Commodity Speculators drop Cotton bets for 12th time in 13 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (21,477 contracts) with Soybeans (16,969 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,333 contracts), Coffee (1,550 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-8,927 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-8,233 contracts), Wheat (-5,787 contracts), Cocoa (-5,586 contracts), Live Cattle (-1,481 contracts) and Cotton (-1,143 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued decline in Cotton‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Cotton have declined for three straight weeks and in twelve out of the past thirteen weeks. Overall, Cotton bets have dropped by a total of -35,187 contracts in the past thirteen weeks going from a standing of +51,767 total net contracts on August 30th to just +16,580 total net contracts this week.

Cotton futures prices have been in sharp retreat since late-August as well. The front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over $83.00 which is down almost 30 percent from August 30th. Cotton prices are also down by approximately 47 percent from the 2022 high-point reached in early May at over $155.95.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-29-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,412,121	1	239,739	8	-262,654	93	22,915	37
Gold	433,661	1	110,003	19	-119,233	82	9,230	3
Silver	121,258	0	17,483	33	-28,997	68	11,514	26
Copper	146,760	0	1,984	38	-3,362	64	1,378	33
Palladium	7,537	8	-1,631	14	1,687	84	-56	38
Platinum	66,468	33	24,259	42	-28,762	60	4,503	28
Natural Gas	985,010	7	-163,429	30	136,191	74	27,238	45
Brent	155,500	15	-32,087	57	29,424	42	2,663	45
Heating Oil	266,829	23	30,733	88	-48,255	20	17,522	59
Soybeans	634,754	13	87,208	40	-61,551	68	-25,657	28
Corn	1,226,410	0	270,242	65	-231,169	39	-39,073	21
Coffee	196,365	9	-14,636	2	13,695	99	941	12
Sugar	876,309	34	179,035	56	-222,607	39	43,572	62
Wheat	310,667	10	-33,305	0	37,024	100	-3,719	91

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) and Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) lead the soft commodity markets with Soybean Meal residing in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (64.6 percent) and Sugar (55.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent), Coffee (1.8 percent) and Cotton (19.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (61.8 percent)
Sugar (55.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.6 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (40.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (71.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (83.7 percent)
Live Cattle (47.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.4 percent)
Cotton (19.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.8 percent)
Cocoa (26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (32.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.1 percent)

Strength Trends led Soybean Oil & Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) and Sugar (18.1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Live Cattle (15.5 percent), Soybeans (10.0 percent) and Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-38.9 percent), Wheat (-31.2 percent) and Cotton (-12.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.8 percent)
Sugar (18.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.8 percent)
Coffee (-38.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-65.2 percent)
Soybeans (10.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.8 percent)
Cotton (-12.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-31.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 270,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 21,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	45.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	63.9	13.2
– Net Position:	270,242	-231,169	-39,073
– Gross Longs:	360,350	552,816	122,723
– Gross Shorts:	90,108	783,985	161,796
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	39.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.4	2.6	13.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 179,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	45.2	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	70.6	5.8
– Net Position:	179,035	-222,607	43,572
– Gross Longs:	282,793	396,433	94,194
– Gross Shorts:	103,758	619,040	50,622
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	39.3	61.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-16.6	6.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	56.0	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	49.1	4.1
– Net Position:	-14,636	13,695	941
– Gross Longs:	35,834	110,025	9,075
– Gross Shorts:	50,470	96,330	8,134
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	98.8	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.9	38.8	-20.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.8	50.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	60.5	11.9
– Net Position:	87,208	-61,551	-25,657
– Gross Longs:	151,317	322,231	49,683
– Gross Shorts:	64,109	383,782	75,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	67.7	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-9.6	-2.7

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	41.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.4	67.5	4.6
– Net Position:	103,854	-116,889	13,035
– Gross Longs:	136,812	183,315	33,560
– Gross Shorts:	32,958	300,204	20,525
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.3	26.8	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-15.9	-8.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 102,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.1	40.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.4	73.4	6.5
– Net Position:	102,339	-122,247	19,908
– Gross Longs:	122,479	149,139	43,937
– Gross Shorts:	20,140	271,386	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.5	19.4	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	-0.1	-15.8

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.7	33.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	51.2	12.0
– Net Position:	54,034	-52,522	-1,512
– Gross Longs:	106,265	95,838	33,215
– Gross Shorts:	52,231	148,360	34,727
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	41.4	86.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-14.3	-7.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	35.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	48.6	13.1
– Net Position:	35,499	-25,480	-10,019
– Gross Longs:	73,573	68,586	15,357
– Gross Shorts:	38,074	94,066	25,376
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	63.4	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.2	-6.5	-15.2

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	47.8	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	57.1	5.7
– Net Position:	16,580	-18,172	1,592
– Gross Longs:	63,352	92,854	12,743
– Gross Shorts:	46,772	111,026	11,151
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.9	80.3	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.2	-0.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	47.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	52.8	3.0
– Net Position:	9,698	-13,322	3,624
– Gross Longs:	80,762	123,639	11,404
– Gross Shorts:	71,064	136,961	7,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	74.3	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	-0.9	24.0

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -33,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	42.1	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	30.2	11.4
– Net Position:	-33,305	37,024	-3,719
– Gross Longs:	87,807	130,938	31,815
– Gross Shorts:	121,112	93,914	35,534
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	91.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.2	33.5	17.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

20 Nov

Currency Speculators continue to trim their US Dollar Index bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Japanese Yen & Mexican Peso top Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese yen (9,416 contracts) with the Mexican peso (8,237 contracts), the British pound sterling (6,901 contracts), the Canadian dollar (5,544 contracts), the Euro (5,067 contracts), the Brazilian real (4,517 contracts), the Australian dollar (1,934 contracts), Bitcoin (553 contracts) and the Swiss franc (327 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the US Dollar Index (-3,339 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (-261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the US Dollar Index positioning. Large speculators dropped their bullish bets for the US Dollar Index this week by the most in the past eight weeks and have now decreased their weekly bets for four out of the past five weeks. The Dollar positions have slipped under +30,000 contracts for the second time in three weeks and this week’s level marks the lowest net standing in the past 59-weeks, dating back to September 28th of 2021. Overall, the Dollar positioning has been in a continuous bullish position for the past 72-weeks, dating back to July of 2021.

The price of the Dollar Index has been in retreat since reaching a 20-year high of over 114.00 at the end of the September. Since the start of November, the Dollar Index has declined sharply from a November 3rd high at over 113.00 to this week’s close on Friday November 18th at 106.83.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	48,382	63	26,854	70	-29,981	28	3,127	51
EUR	682,575	70	112,666	70	-151,573	33	38,907	41
GBP	230,102	55	-32,834	41	49,439	68	-16,605	25
JPY	233,346	70	-65,842	28	77,213	73	-11,371	30
CHF	41,966	25	-16,827	14	21,637	78	-4,810	41
CAD	139,753	23	-12,920	26	14,229	81	-1,309	27
AUD	162,440	54	-44,749	43	54,112	59	-9,363	30
NZD	42,589	32	-6,628	55	8,381	48	-1,753	31
MXN	303,442	97	67,851	56	-74,563	42	6,712	71
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	23,469	4	9,018	59	-12,404	39	3,386	100
Bitcoin	17,901	100	571	87	-914	0	343	21

Bitcoin tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Bitcoin (86.9 percent) leads the currency markets at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The US Dollar Index (69.7 percent) and the EuroFX (69.6 percent) come in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (13.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength score currently and the only one with an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (69.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (75.3 percent)
EuroFX (69.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (68.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (40.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (34.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (41.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (55.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (56.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (52.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (59.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.8 percent)
Bitcoin (86.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (77.3 percent)

Strength Trends led by Mexican Peso

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (44.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (21.2 percent), the British Pound Sterling (14.3 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (13.9 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Swiss Franc (-25.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Brazilian Real (-16.5 percent), the Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-8.1 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.6 percent)
EuroFX (21.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (14.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (5.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-25.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-29.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (13.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (44.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (43.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.8 percent)
Bitcoin (10.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-17.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.5	4.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	66.4	5.6
– Net Position:	26,854	-29,981	3,127
– Gross Longs:	38,965	2,149	5,843
– Gross Shorts:	12,111	32,130	2,716
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.7	28.2	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.1	10.8	-21.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 112,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,599 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.1	50.3	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.6	72.5	6.9
– Net Position:	112,666	-151,573	38,907
– Gross Longs:	239,369	343,388	86,147
– Gross Shorts:	126,703	494,961	47,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	33.0	41.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-26.9	41.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -32,834 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	74.0	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.3	52.5	15.8
– Net Position:	-32,834	49,439	-16,605
– Gross Longs:	34,699	170,322	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	67,533	120,883	36,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	67.7	25.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.3	-20.2	25.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -65,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,416 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.5	74.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	41.0	15.2
– Net Position:	-65,842	77,213	-11,371
– Gross Longs:	33,797	172,905	24,061
– Gross Shorts:	99,639	95,692	35,432
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	73.3	30.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.7	-7.9	0.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,827 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 327 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.4	69.7	24.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.5	18.1	35.4
– Net Position:	-16,827	21,637	-4,810
– Gross Longs:	2,271	29,249	10,058
– Gross Shorts:	19,098	7,612	14,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	78.0	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	9.0	14.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,464 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	50.2	21.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	40.0	22.7
– Net Position:	-12,920	14,229	-1,309
– Gross Longs:	37,456	70,173	30,478
– Gross Shorts:	50,376	55,944	31,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.4	80.6	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-3.1	-9.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -44,749 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,683 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	67.8	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	34.5	15.0
– Net Position:	-44,749	54,112	-9,363
– Gross Longs:	33,214	110,099	15,029
– Gross Shorts:	77,963	55,987	24,392
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	59.3	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	11.4	4.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,628 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	57.1	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.5	37.4	10.4
– Net Position:	-6,628	8,381	-1,753
– Gross Longs:	15,285	24,311	2,680
– Gross Shorts:	21,913	15,930	4,433
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	48.3	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-15.3	17.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 67,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,614 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	65.2	31.5	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	56.1	0.9
– Net Position:	67,851	-74,563	6,712
– Gross Longs:	197,700	95,530	9,390
– Gross Shorts:	129,849	170,093	2,678
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.3	41.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.9	-44.4	5.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 9,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.9	8.5	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	61.3	5.8
– Net Position:	9,018	-12,404	3,386
– Gross Longs:	16,397	1,986	4,742
– Gross Shorts:	7,379	14,390	1,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	3.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.2	39.2	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	14.8	17.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.7	0.8	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.6	5.9	5.0
– Net Position:	571	-914	343
– Gross Longs:	14,096	137	1,231
– Gross Shorts:	13,525	1,051	888
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.9	20.1	20.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-24.0	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 Nov

Bonds Speculator’s bearish bets surge to push 2-Year Bond positions to record low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bond

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower overall this week as just two out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while six other markets had lower contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (145,719 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (4,465 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The bond markets leading the weekly declines in speculator bets this week was the 2-Year Bond (-102,997 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-59,962 contracts), the Fed Funds (-48,469 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-48,163 contracts), the Long US Bond (-6,956 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (-2,545 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week is the 2-Year Bond position that continues to see the bearish bets pile up. Large speculators sharply added to their bearish positioning this week by a total of -102,997 contracts and marking the largest one-week bearish gain since February. Overall, bearish bets have risen for the past four straight weeks and for five out of the past six weeks. The bearish position has now risen by a total of -250,758 contracts over just the past four weeks.

This continued weakness for the 2-Year has pushed the overall net position standing to the lowest on record for a third straight week with this week’s standing totaling -586,270 contracts, according to CFTC data going back to 1990.

The 2-Year Bond futures price has continued to be in a steep downtrend but has trended a bit higher in the past week off its recent low touched on November 4th at 101.19.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,670,696	0	-1,966,931	17	2,232,777	81	-265,846	46
FedFunds	1,488,043	42	-26,285	36	32,822	64	-6,537	43
2-Year	2,261,042	22	-586,270	0	590,806	100	-4,536	50
Long T-Bond	1,199,687	43	-97,681	53	78,745	39	18,936	68
10-Year	4,015,833	66	-343,021	20	405,129	70	-62,108	65
5-Year	4,333,912	70	-547,618	3	632,207	90	-84,589	58

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bond

On the downside, the 2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level and currently at the bottom of its 3-Year range. The 5-Year Bond (2.7 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) and the Eurodollar (16.9 percent) join the 2-Year Bond with scores in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (42.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (2.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (29.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (8.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (55.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (31.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (29.3 percent)
Eurodollar (16.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.2 percent)

10-Year Bond lead the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the 10-Year Bond (3.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The Eurodollar (2.2 percent), the US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-41.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with a steep drop while the next markets with lower trend scores was the 5-Year Bond (-9.8 percent) followed by the Fed Funds (-2.4 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-2.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-9.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-41.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-24.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-8.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.6 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (12.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.8 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (1.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-0.1 percent)
Eurodollar (2.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (0.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,966,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 145,719 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,112,650 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	67.9	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	38.8	8.7
– Net Position:	-1,966,931	2,232,777	-265,846
– Gross Longs:	559,946	5,207,904	402,188
– Gross Shorts:	2,526,877	2,975,127	668,034
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	81.0	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-2.0	-2.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,285 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -48,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,184 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	75.6	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.8	73.4	3.0
– Net Position:	-26,285	32,822	-6,537
– Gross Longs:	149,693	1,124,421	38,519
– Gross Shorts:	175,978	1,091,599	45,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.4	63.9	43.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	1.0	29.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -586,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -102,997 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -483,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	82.2	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.4	56.1	8.5
– Net Position:	-586,270	590,806	-4,536
– Gross Longs:	146,333	1,859,038	187,082
– Gross Shorts:	732,603	1,268,232	191,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-41.6	29.6	37.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -547,618 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -48,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -499,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	83.8	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	69.2	9.1
– Net Position:	-547,618	632,207	-84,589
– Gross Longs:	309,373	3,632,210	310,934
– Gross Shorts:	856,991	3,000,003	395,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.7	90.3	57.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	0.9	15.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -343,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -59,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -283,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	66.0	11.0
– Net Position:	-343,021	405,129	-62,108
– Gross Longs:	472,288	3,054,508	379,476
– Gross Shorts:	815,309	2,649,379	441,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	70.0	65.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-1.4	-2.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -79,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	79.9	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.3	66.7	17.1
– Net Position:	-79,073	184,254	-105,181
– Gross Longs:	133,971	1,114,722	133,372
– Gross Shorts:	213,044	930,468	238,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	87.6	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	4.2	-12.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -97,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	79.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	72.8	13.0
– Net Position:	-97,681	78,745	18,936
– Gross Longs:	57,233	951,931	174,421
– Gross Shorts:	154,914	873,186	155,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.8	38.7	67.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	-2.3	0.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -377,708 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -382,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.3	81.5	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	59.7	8.0
– Net Position:	-377,708	326,617	51,091
– Gross Longs:	94,540	1,217,889	170,609
– Gross Shorts:	472,248	891,272	119,518
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	72.9	73.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	3.5	-4.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

20 Nov

COT Metals Speculators boost their Gold bullish bets to 13-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as all five of the metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (43,931 contracts) with Copper (6,908 contracts), Silver (4,604 contracts), Platinum (3,095 contracts) and Palladium (1,338 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rebound of the Gold speculator bets. The large speculator position for Gold jumped by over +40,000 contracts this week following a gain by over +17,000 contracts. This week’s rise marked the highest weekly gain in 143-weeks and the renewed speculator sentiment has pushed the overall Gold net position back above the +100,000 contract level for the first time since early September. The Gold speculator net standing is now at the highest level since August 16th when the net contracts was +141,164 contracts.

Gold prices have had a bit of an upswing since November 4th as well as the futures price has risen from the (Nov. 4th) opening level of $1,631.00 to close out this week at the $1,754.40 threshold. Gold, also this week, touched its highest level since the middle of August just below $1,792.00 before retreating lower.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-15-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,469,437	3	278,267	18	-307,395	81	29,128	48
Gold	495,171	17	126,269	25	-134,308	78	8,039	0
Silver	141,623	14	17,607	34	-29,424	67	11,817	27
Copper	168,962	9	9,821	44	-13,583	56	3,762	47
Palladium	8,793	14	-1,072	17	1,231	81	-159	32
Platinum	63,391	27	22,544	39	-27,037	62	4,493	28
Natural Gas	978,425	6	-152,114	33	120,830	69	31,284	54
Brent	139,080	4	-25,194	69	20,782	28	4,412	69
Heating Oil	275,254	26	25,660	80	-46,933	21	21,273	72
Soybeans	616,094	9	76,804	37	-49,046	72	-27,758	24
Corn	1,421,555	22	252,908	62	-211,862	42	-41,046	19
Coffee	191,743	6	-14,154	0	11,840	100	2,314	32
Sugar	832,522	26	156,194	59	-201,779	39	45,585	64
Wheat	350,091	27	-22,481	0	29,310	100	-6,829	75

Copper & Platinum lead Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Copper (44.1 percent) and Platinum (39.4 percent) lead the metals category. Silver (33.5 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (17.5 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in a bearish extreme position with a score under 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (24.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (33.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.4 percent)
Copper (44.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (38.6 percent)
Platinum (39.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.2 percent)
Palladium (17.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.7 percent)

Platinum tops the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Platinum (25.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Copper (22.3 percent), Gold (12.6 percent) and Silver (9.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-2.8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (12.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.0 percent)
Silver (9.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (22.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.4 percent)
Platinum (25.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (25.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-9.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 126,269 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 43,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	27.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	54.4	5.8
– Net Position:	126,269	-134,308	8,039
– Gross Longs:	227,282	135,035	36,973
– Gross Shorts:	101,013	269,343	28,934
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.6	77.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-11.7	-0.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.2	34.2	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	54.9	8.9
– Net Position:	17,607	-29,424	11,817
– Gross Longs:	52,692	48,393	24,386
– Gross Shorts:	35,085	77,817	12,569
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	67.4	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-11.2	14.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.9	36.5	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	44.6	8.0
– Net Position:	9,821	-13,583	3,762
– Gross Longs:	60,730	61,693	17,332
– Gross Shorts:	50,909	75,276	13,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	56.5	47.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.3	-24.5	20.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	27.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	70.1	4.8
– Net Position:	22,544	-27,037	4,493
– Gross Longs:	33,079	17,374	7,567
– Gross Shorts:	10,535	44,411	3,074
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.4	61.9	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-25.1	8.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	51.3	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	37.3	15.0
– Net Position:	-1,072	1,231	-159
– Gross Longs:	1,997	4,512	1,161
– Gross Shorts:	3,069	3,281	1,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	81.1	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	5.0	-23.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

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