COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 63

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Weekly COT Stock Market Speculator bets led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rdand shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as all of the eight stock markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was S&P500-Mini (6,980 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (6,738 contracts), Russell-Mini (4,563 contracts), Nikkei 225 (1,633 contracts), Nikkei 225 Yen (992 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (190 contracts), DowJones-Mini (154 contracts) and the VIX (415 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,010,996	2	-167,301	25	166,552	72	749	27
Nikkei 225	11,889	3	-2,974	63	2,892	44	82	29
Nasdaq-Mini	244,658	39	1,362	76	4,177	29	-5,539	42
DowJones-Mini	79,731	42	-11,891	25	16,039	79	-4,148	19
VIX	297,329	33	-68,000	67	75,329	35	-7,329	56
Nikkei 225 Yen	38,248	17	6,205	53	75	10	-6,280	68

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (76 percent) and the VIX (67 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (63 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (53 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (25 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
VIX (67.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (25.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (23.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (25.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (24.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (75.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (75.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (30.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (28.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (55.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (36.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.0 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4.5 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei 225 (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-3.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-2.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (4.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (5.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-2.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-0.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (3.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-1.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-5.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-13.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (26.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -68,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	56.6	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	31.3	8.9
– Net Position:	-68,000	75,329	-7,329
– Gross Longs:	56,713	168,326	18,988
– Gross Shorts:	124,713	92,997	26,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.3	35.1	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	4.0	-6.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -167,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,980 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -174,281 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	73.3	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	65.1	11.5
– Net Position:	-167,301	166,552	749
– Gross Longs:	261,260	1,474,811	232,853
– Gross Shorts:	428,561	1,308,259	232,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	72.4	26.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.5	-3.9	0.9

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	51.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	31.2	19.7
– Net Position:	-11,891	16,039	-4,148
– Gross Longs:	25,248	40,900	11,541
– Gross Shorts:	37,139	24,861	15,689
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.2	79.2	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	2.7	18.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,362 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 190 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	59.6	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	57.9	16.4
– Net Position:	1,362	4,177	-5,539
– Gross Longs:	59,802	145,713	34,484
– Gross Shorts:	58,440	141,536	40,023
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.8	29.1	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	0.5	1.8

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,361 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	83.6	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	68.6	5.0
– Net Position:	-65,361	65,079	282
– Gross Longs:	43,799	363,125	21,973
– Gross Shorts:	109,160	298,046	21,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.6	69.4	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	3.0	-16.3

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,974 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.9	52.5	25.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	28.2	24.9
– Net Position:	-2,974	2,892	82
– Gross Longs:	2,609	6,242	3,038
– Gross Shorts:	5,583	3,350	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	44.1	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	5.3	-0.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	91.7	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	91.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-5,996	-9	6,005
– Gross Longs:	16,843	320,467	10,720
– Gross Shorts:	22,839	320,476	4,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	60.4	70.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.9	-28.8	16.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

17 Dec

Currency Speculators cut Japanese Yen bearish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,808 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (2,726 contracts), British Pound (2,454 contracts), Brazilian Real (1,261 contracts), US Dollar Index (892 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (419 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-5,158 contracts), Mexican Peso (-3,588 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-1,008 contracts), EuroFX (-168 contracts) and Bitcoin (-107 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data this week is the improvement being seen in the Japanese yen speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Japanese yen have risen for two straight weeks and in six out of the past seven weeks. This improvement for the yen has taken the net position from a total of -102,618 contracts on October 25th to just a total of -53,188 contracts this week for a total reduction in the bearish position by +49,430 contracts. The yen speculator position is now at the least bearish level in the past fifteen weeks.

The yen exchange rate versus the dollar has been on the mend as well after falling to over a 30-year low in October at the 151.94 exchange rate. The yen has rallied by approximately 10 percent since the recent low and has been helped out by a decreasing interest rate differential between the US bonds and the Japanese bonds (see chart below). The yen could see further improvement if the USDJPY falls below the approaching the 200-day moving average.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	48,069	63	25,778	68	-28,482	31	2,704	46
EUR	772,800	100	124,715	73	-157,377	31	32,662	31
GBP	240,264	61	-25,739	47	31,288	55	-5,549	47
JPY	226,964	66	-53,188	36	59,029	64	-5,841	42
CHF	49,340	64	-11,811	23	15,972	71	-4,161	43
CAD	169,433	43	-27,248	9	24,924	89	2,324	35
AUD	172,269	62	-37,837	50	42,845	51	-5,008	40
NZD	55,294	64	-7,506	34	6,096	61	1,410	68
MXN	290,116	91	44,364	46	-49,811	52	5,447	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	34,190	19	3,459	50	-5,560	49	2,101	86
Bitcoin	13,989	71	-40	76	-409	0	449	23

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Bitcoin (76 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (68 percent), Australian Dollar (50 percent) and the Brazilian Real (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (23 percent), New Zealand Dollar (34 percent) and the Japanese Yen (36 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (67.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (36.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (28.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (22.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (47.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (47.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (49.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (48.3 percent)
Bitcoin (76.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (78.1 percent)

British Pound & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (16 percent) and the Japanese Yen (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (12 percent), the Swiss Franc (8 percent) and the Bitcoin (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-8.7 percent)
EuroFX (5.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (22.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (17.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-27.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-28.9 percent)
Bitcoin (7.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,886 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.6	2.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	61.8	6.4
– Net Position:	25,778	-28,482	2,704
– Gross Longs:	38,766	1,245	5,782
– Gross Shorts:	12,988	29,727	3,078
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	30.5	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	7.7	-9.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 124,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -168 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 124,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	53.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	73.9	7.9
– Net Position:	124,715	-157,377	32,662
– Gross Longs:	236,415	414,090	94,033
– Gross Shorts:	111,700	571,467	61,371
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	31.4	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.8	-8.1	15.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -25,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.3	66.0	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	53.0	12.9
– Net Position:	-25,739	31,288	-5,549
– Gross Longs:	32,008	158,686	25,472
– Gross Shorts:	57,747	127,398	31,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	55.3	47.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-23.2	29.4

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 12,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	69.2	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	43.2	14.3
– Net Position:	-53,188	59,029	-5,841
– Gross Longs:	22,290	157,021	26,668
– Gross Shorts:	75,478	97,992	32,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	64.5	41.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-17.9	25.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	68.9	21.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	36.6	29.9
– Net Position:	-11,811	15,972	-4,161
– Gross Longs:	2,081	34,016	10,597
– Gross Shorts:	13,892	18,044	14,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	71.3	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-19.4	29.7

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,090 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	51.6	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.8	36.9	17.6
– Net Position:	-27,248	24,924	2,324
– Gross Longs:	31,720	87,471	32,089
– Gross Shorts:	58,968	62,547	29,765
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	89.5	34.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	4.7	7.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -37,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	61.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	36.4	13.0
– Net Position:	-37,837	42,845	-5,008
– Gross Longs:	35,825	105,480	17,339
– Gross Shorts:	73,662	62,635	22,347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.8	50.8	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-14.8	17.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	52.1	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	41.0	7.0
– Net Position:	-7,506	6,096	1,410
– Gross Longs:	19,700	28,793	5,297
– Gross Shorts:	27,206	22,697	3,887
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.1	60.9	67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	-1.9	51.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.1	36.8	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	53.9	0.9
– Net Position:	44,364	-49,811	5,447
– Gross Longs:	168,481	106,698	7,935
– Gross Shorts:	124,117	156,509	2,488
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	52.0	66.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	0.3	-4.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.7	22.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.6	38.4	4.0
– Net Position:	3,459	-5,560	2,101
– Gross Longs:	23,161	7,574	3,455
– Gross Shorts:	19,702	13,134	1,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	49.3	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.5	24.7	23.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.2	2.9	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.5	5.8	6.3
– Net Position:	-40	-409	449
– Gross Longs:	10,666	403	1,329
– Gross Shorts:	10,706	812	880
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	44.6	23.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.2	-19.1	-0.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, 5-Year Bond lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 13th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Bullish and Top Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score or at the exact top of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score shows a gain of 7.7 over the past six-weeks.

The overall net speculator position was a total of 133,532 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,358 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 95.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score was a gain of 11.3 percent.

The speculator position registered -3,090 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher by 149 contract in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a plus 19.2 change over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was 19,198 net contracts this week with a boost of 5,681 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or at the bottom of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -19.6 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -691,537 net contracts this week with a drop of -32,931 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -23.7 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -39,918 net contracts this week with a tiny decline of -21 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -4.7 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -101,471 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,481 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score has fallen by -6.7 percentage points over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was 229,559 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,161 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Coffee

Finally, the Coffee speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 7.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is fall of -13.4 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -9,470 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,172 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

17 Dec

Large Speculators raise their Metals bets led higher by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (10,524 contracts) with Silver (3,611 contracts), Platinum (2,809 contracts), Copper (877 contracts) and Palladium (489 contracts) all showing positive weeks.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the gains in bets for the Gold positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fourth time over the past six weeks. Speculator bets have now increased by a total of +61,026 contracts over these past six weeks, going from a total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a total of +125,649 contracts this week. These recent gains have now put the net position above +100,000 for the fifth straight week after having been below that threshold for nine consecutive weeks (from September 13th to November 8th) which was the longest stretch under +100,000 net contracts since 2018.

The Gold futures price has been moving positively as well with prices closing higher on a weekly basis for five out of the past seven weeks. The Gold price hit a recent bottom at the $1,618.30 level in early November and has rallied by approximately 11 percent since then to close out this week slightly above the $1,800.00 price threshold.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	437,040	4	125,649	24	-138,529	76	12,880	12
Silver	125,555	4	22,819	39	-35,806	61	12,987	33
Copper	162,191	11	2,556	38	-6,559	62	4,003	48
Palladium	7,494	8	-883	20	854	77	29	43
Platinum	72,416	43	28,445	47	-32,624	55	4,179	24

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (47 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (39 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Gold (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (24.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (20.9 percent)
Silver (39.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (35.3 percent)
Copper (38.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.7 percent)
Platinum (47.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.6 percent)
Palladium (20.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (17.2 percent)

Silver & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (23 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (20 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (6 percent) is the lowest in trend scores currently with Copper (8 percent) coming in next. The all positive movement score underlines the change of sentiment for the metals category after spending many weeks of 2022 with all or most of the metals with negative trends.

Move Statistics:
Gold (20.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.6 percent)
Silver (23.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (21.3 percent)
Copper (8.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.8 percent)
Platinum (16.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (19.2 percent)
Palladium (6.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	27.4	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	59.1	5.6
– Net Position:	125,649	-138,529	12,880
– Gross Longs:	224,409	119,908	37,309
– Gross Shorts:	98,760	258,437	24,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.4	76.4	12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.2	-19.7	6.8

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	35.8	19.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	64.3	8.6
– Net Position:	22,819	-35,806	12,987
– Gross Longs:	51,405	44,913	23,843
– Gross Shorts:	28,586	80,719	10,856
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	61.4	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-24.0	19.9

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,556 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	40.9	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	44.9	7.9
– Net Position:	2,556	-6,559	4,003
– Gross Longs:	58,057	66,265	16,760
– Gross Shorts:	55,501	72,824	12,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	61.9	48.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-11.3	26.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 28,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.0	29.0	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	74.1	4.5
– Net Position:	28,445	-32,624	4,179
– Gross Longs:	39,112	21,003	7,434
– Gross Shorts:	10,667	53,627	3,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	54.9	24.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-16.3	6.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	48.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	37.2	13.6
– Net Position:	-883	854	29
– Gross Longs:	2,466	3,644	1,050
– Gross Shorts:	3,349	2,790	1,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	77.3	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-8.5	23.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

17 Dec

COT Bonds Speculators Weekly Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (29,641 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (12,741 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (5,481 contracts), Fed Funds (4,973 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,605 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-32,931 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-7,232 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-1,377 contracts).

Some Highlights of this week’s bonds data:

5-Year Bonds bets fell again this week and dropped to the most bearish level in 216-weeks, dating back to October of 2018.
Eurodollar bets and futures prices have been improving steadily since hitting recent lows in August
2-Year Bond speculator positions have improved in three out of the past four weeks since falling to a record low bearish position on November 15th
The 10-Year Bond speculator bets have fallen for two straight weeks and the overall position is at the most bearish level since August 30th at a total of -376,438 contracts

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	7,223,627	0	-1,614,221	23	1,847,037	74	-232,816	53
FedFunds	1,402,582	38	-73,894	30	83,130	70	-9,236	36
2-Year	2,202,604	19	-521,799	10	519,176	89	2,623	53
Long T-Bond	1,185,521	40	-116,738	47	76,266	38	40,472	85
10-Year	3,822,244	52	-376,438	15	474,930	78	-98,492	57
5-Year	4,114,021	58	-691,537	0	774,022	100	-82,485	58

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (47 percent) continues to lead the bond markets and is the only market close to the 50 percent or 3-Year midpoint.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (2 percent), 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (2.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (46.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (35.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (33.5 percent)
Eurodollar (23.4 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (22.9 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the Eurodollar (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bonds (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-12.5 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-18.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-19.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-25.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-18.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-7.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (8.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.5 percent)
Eurodollar (6.2 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,614,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 29,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,643,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	69.3	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	43.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-1,614,221	1,847,037	-232,816
– Gross Longs:	534,813	5,006,987	353,101
– Gross Shorts:	2,149,034	3,159,950	585,917
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	74.1	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-6.6	7.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -73,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,973 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,867 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	77.5	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	71.6	3.1
– Net Position:	-73,894	83,130	-9,236
– Gross Longs:	121,174	1,087,398	34,439
– Gross Shorts:	195,068	1,004,268	43,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	70.0	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	6.4	11.6

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -521,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -534,540 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	80.6	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	57.0	8.2
– Net Position:	-521,799	519,176	2,623
– Gross Longs:	193,812	1,774,593	183,713
– Gross Shorts:	715,611	1,255,417	181,090
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	89.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	8.3	13.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -691,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -32,931 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.9	85.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	66.7	9.4
– Net Position:	-691,537	774,022	-82,485
– Gross Longs:	241,345	3,519,766	304,790
– Gross Shorts:	932,882	2,745,744	387,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	58.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.6	16.3	2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -376,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -369,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.9	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	64.4	11.4
– Net Position:	-376,438	474,930	-98,492
– Gross Longs:	452,127	2,938,306	336,813
– Gross Shorts:	828,565	2,463,376	435,305
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	78.3	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	15.6	-12.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	76.4	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	62.8	17.6
– Net Position:	-101,471	195,085	-93,614
– Gross Longs:	169,295	1,094,617	158,109
– Gross Shorts:	270,766	899,532	251,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	90.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	8.7	-10.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -116,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.1	79.2	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.9	72.7	11.4
– Net Position:	-116,738	76,266	40,472
– Gross Longs:	60,004	938,513	176,212
– Gross Shorts:	176,742	862,247	135,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	37.8	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.0	4.1	8.0

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -367,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -371,773 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	83.7	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	62.0	7.7
– Net Position:	-367,168	310,758	56,410
– Gross Longs:	59,908	1,194,785	165,771
– Gross Shorts:	427,076	884,027	109,361
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.4	64.5	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-13.3	3.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

17 Dec

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Soybean Meal bullish bets to 236-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,398 contracts) with Corn (13,855 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,358 contracts), Sugar (9,927 contracts) with Cocoa (5,353 contracts), Coffee (5,172 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,552 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-10,669 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-5,281 contracts), Cotton (-4,281 contracts) and Wheat (-21 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Soybean Meal speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Soybean Meal rose this week for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Soybean Meal (currently at +133,532 contracts) to the highest level in the past two-hundred and thirty-six weeks, dating back to June 5th of 2018.

Soybean Meal futures prices dipped this week despite the continued strong sentiment. The Soybean Meal futures price had previously gained for three straight weeks and hit the highest price level since March above the 470.0 threshold. The futures price closed out the week right around the 460.0 support/resistance area.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,450,482	4	229,559	5	-247,747	97	18,188	29
Gold	437,040	4	125,649	24	-138,529	76	12,880	12
Silver	125,555	4	22,819	39	-35,806	61	12,987	33
Copper	162,191	11	2,556	38	-6,559	62	4,003	48
Palladium	7,494	8	-883	20	854	77	29	43
Platinum	72,416	43	28,445	47	-32,624	55	4,179	24
Natural Gas	996,823	9	-153,681	32	129,960	72	23,721	36
Brent	148,097	10	-28,567	62	25,351	36	3,216	53
Heating Oil	270,751	24	17,308	68	-32,771	36	15,463	52
Soybeans	638,744	14	113,059	46	-82,011	64	-31,048	19
Corn	1,205,259	0	212,230	57	-173,223	47	-39,007	21
Coffee	198,702	11	-9,470	8	8,451	93	1,019	14
Sugar	899,777	38	193,051	60	-228,593	38	35,542	52
Wheat	335,354	21	-39,918	0	42,894	100	-2,976	95

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (60 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (57 percent), Live Cattle (53 percent) and Soybeans (46 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Lean Hogs (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (55.4 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (56.9 percent)
Coffee (7.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (45.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (93.8 percent)
Live Cattle (53.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (37.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (18.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (39.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (34.6 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (43 percent) and Cocoa (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-24 percent), Corn (-16 percent) and Lean Hogs (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.8 percent)
Sugar (42.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (24.5 percent)
Coffee (-13.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-11.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-14.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-1.8 percent)
Cotton (-1.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.6 percent)
Cocoa (31.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.3 percent)
Wheat (-23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 212,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	47.3	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.6	61.7	13.4
– Net Position:	212,230	-173,223	-39,007
– Gross Longs:	316,184	570,199	122,422
– Gross Shorts:	103,954	743,422	161,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	47.2	21.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	16.2	8.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 193,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	44.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.6	70.0	6.2
– Net Position:	193,051	-228,593	35,542
– Gross Longs:	288,052	401,488	91,410
– Gross Shorts:	95,001	630,081	55,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.3	37.6	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	42.6	-39.7	17.4

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	53.0	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	48.7	4.0
– Net Position:	-9,470	8,451	1,019
– Gross Longs:	44,628	105,240	8,917
– Gross Shorts:	54,098	96,789	7,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.7	93.1	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	13.9	-13.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 113,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	50.7	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	63.6	12.4
– Net Position:	113,059	-82,011	-31,048
– Gross Longs:	172,330	324,126	48,054
– Gross Shorts:	59,271	406,137	79,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	64.1	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-7.8	-4.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	49.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	66.2	5.5
– Net Position:	55,642	-68,529	12,887
– Gross Longs:	95,349	203,433	35,470
– Gross Shorts:	39,707	271,962	22,583
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	57.1	61.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.5	26.7	-4.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 133,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.8	36.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.8	75.0	7.5
– Net Position:	133,532	-152,141	18,609
– Gross Longs:	148,357	142,149	47,862
– Gross Shorts:	14,825	294,290	29,253
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	3.8	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-3.6	-37.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	32.9	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	51.5	12.2
– Net Position:	58,815	-55,162	-3,653
– Gross Longs:	114,479	97,378	32,476
– Gross Shorts:	55,664	152,540	36,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.1	37.7	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.8	7.4	-2.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	36.6	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	49.0	13.1
– Net Position:	33,627	-23,073	-10,554
– Gross Longs:	69,910	68,312	13,877
– Gross Shorts:	36,283	91,385	24,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	69.2	44.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	13.2	6.9

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	49.5	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.0	57.0	5.9
– Net Position:	14,439	-14,822	383
– Gross Longs:	62,069	98,286	12,021
– Gross Shorts:	47,630	113,108	11,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.3	82.6	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	0.9	2.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	46.5	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	56.5	3.0
– Net Position:	23,317	-26,669	3,352
– Gross Longs:	84,900	123,825	11,260
– Gross Shorts:	61,583	150,494	7,908
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	61.1	30.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.2	-32.2	9.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	40.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	28.2	10.6
– Net Position:	-39,918	42,894	-2,976
– Gross Longs:	94,335	137,316	32,455
– Gross Shorts:	134,253	94,422	35,431
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	24.0	19.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

17 Dec

Stock Market Speculator bets trend lower led by S&P500-Mini & VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by S&P500-Mini & VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Russell-Mini (9,651 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (5,681 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-26,403 contracts), VIX (-8,399 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,969 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-939 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-356 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-13-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,477,140	15	-230,122	14	212,726	79	17,396	30
Nikkei 225	18,813	23	-2,964	63	1,418	37	1,546	48
Nasdaq-Mini	312,984	79	19,198	86	-12,779	19	-6,419	40
DowJones-Mini	106,454	79	-12,542	24	20,249	85	-7,707	1
VIX	347,723	51	-82,978	57	85,453	42	-2,475	79
Nikkei 225 Yen	39,328	19	8,049	59	3,511	20	-11,560	57

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (86 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (63 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (57 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (14 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the DowJones-Mini (24.2 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (57.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (63.0 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (24.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (82.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (31.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (26.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (63.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (65.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (25.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (35.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (19.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (13 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The Nikkei 225 (-14 percent) and the Russell-Mini (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-12.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-14.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-10.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (2.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (3.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (19.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (4.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (4.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-14.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-19.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (13.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (25.8 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -82,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	54.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	29.7	8.1
– Net Position:	-82,978	85,453	-2,475
– Gross Longs:	56,330	188,883	25,721
– Gross Shorts:	139,308	103,430	28,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.4	41.8	79.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	10.6	14.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -230,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -26,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -203,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	73.3	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	64.8	10.6
– Net Position:	-230,122	212,726	17,396
– Gross Longs:	226,507	1,816,921	279,775
– Gross Shorts:	456,629	1,604,195	262,379
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.6	78.7	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	2.1	8.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -12,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -939 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	55.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	36.8	20.3
– Net Position:	-12,542	20,249	-7,707
– Gross Longs:	23,411	59,477	13,855
– Gross Shorts:	35,953	39,228	21,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	85.2	1.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	5.9	1.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,517 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	58.6	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.2	62.7	13.9
– Net Position:	19,198	-12,779	-6,419
– Gross Longs:	73,103	183,306	36,975
– Gross Shorts:	53,905	196,085	43,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.8	18.6	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-25.8	14.1

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	82.2	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	71.1	4.2
– Net Position:	-63,784	57,647	6,137
– Gross Longs:	44,847	426,831	27,878
– Gross Shorts:	108,631	369,184	21,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	65.5	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	6.7	3.9

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -2,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	45.9	22.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	38.4	13.7
– Net Position:	-2,964	1,418	1,546
– Gross Longs:	3,193	8,634	4,132
– Gross Shorts:	6,157	7,216	2,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.4	36.7	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	9.2	14.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	90.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	89.4	2.2
– Net Position:	-14,886	4,926	9,960
– Gross Longs:	18,081	386,031	19,545
– Gross Shorts:	32,967	381,105	9,585
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.4	66.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-24.5	73.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

10 Dec

COT Currency Speculators drive Euro bullish bets to a 92-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

British pound sterling & Australian dollar lead Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British pound sterling (8,391 contracts) with the Australian dollar (4,067 contracts), the Euro (2,636 contracts), the Swiss franc (2,017 contracts) and the Japanese yen (1,398 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-18,134 contracts) with the Canadian dollar (-5,974 contracts), the Brazilian real (-5,439 contracts), the New Zealand dollar (-1,444 contracts), Bitcoin (-257 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the rising Euro positioning. Large speculators increased their bullish bets for the Euro this week for the seventh time out of the past eight weeks and for the twelfth time out of the past thirteen weeks. The Euro speculator position has gone from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a total of +124,883 contracts this week for a thirteen-week change of +172,559 contracts. The current speculator standing for the Euro has now ascended to the most bullish level since March 2nd of 2021, a span of ninety-two weeks.

The Euro (EURUSD) price has been on a bullish trend as well since falling to an approximate 20-year low in September at a below parity exchange rate of 0.9593. Since the September low, the Euro has rallied by approximately 9 percent and is now trading at the highest levels since June with this week’s close above the 1.0550 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	45,115	56	24,886	66	-27,540	32	2,654	46
EUR	711,537	84	124,883	73	-160,005	31	35,122	35
GBP	230,311	55	-28,193	45	37,774	60	-9,581	39
JPY	223,424	64	-65,996	28	75,202	72	-9,206	35
CHF	40,171	33	-12,230	22	17,859	74	-5,629	38
CAD	148,891	29	-22,090	15	22,905	88	-815	28
AUD	158,755	51	-40,563	47	42,820	51	-2,257	47
NZD	42,954	36	-6,498	37	6,301	61	197	54
MXN	293,708	93	47,952	48	-53,360	51	5,408	66
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	25,464	7	2,198	48	-4,324	51	2,126	86
Bitcoin	15,769	83	67	78	-568	0	501	24

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & EuroFX

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Bitcoin (78.1 percent) and the EuroFX (73.3 percent) lead the currency markets currently. The US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets in strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only currency in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (66.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (66.4 percent)
EuroFX (73.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (28.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (22.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (47.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (36.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (47.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (55.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.1 percent)
Bitcoin (78.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (82.6 percent)

Japanese Yen tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent), the British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent), the EuroFX (15.3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (22.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (22.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-2.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-18.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (17.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (35.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (37.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-28.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.2 percent)
Bitcoin (0.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (5.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 24,886 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.1	4.1	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	65.1	6.6
– Net Position:	24,886	-27,540	2,654
– Gross Longs:	36,157	1,838	5,610
– Gross Shorts:	11,271	29,378	2,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	32.0	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	10.8	-17.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 124,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	51.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	73.5	7.0
– Net Position:	124,883	-160,005	35,122
– Gross Longs:	245,063	363,169	85,050
– Gross Shorts:	120,180	523,174	49,928
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	30.6	35.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.3	-18.8	25.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -28,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,391 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,584 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.3	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	56.9	14.1
– Net Position:	-28,193	37,774	-9,581
– Gross Longs:	28,539	168,838	22,941
– Gross Shorts:	56,732	131,064	32,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	59.7	39.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-19.6	18.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,394 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	76.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.4	15.3
– Net Position:	-65,996	75,202	-9,206
– Gross Longs:	23,589	169,918	24,896
– Gross Shorts:	89,585	94,716	34,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.2	72.3	34.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-20.9	12.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.3	70.9	25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	26.5	39.4
– Net Position:	-12,230	17,859	-5,629
– Gross Longs:	1,343	28,500	10,183
– Gross Shorts:	13,573	10,641	15,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.3	74.4	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-8.7	21.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,090 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,974 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	53.3	20.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	37.9	21.4
– Net Position:	-22,090	22,905	-815
– Gross Longs:	30,717	79,379	30,984
– Gross Shorts:	52,807	56,474	31,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	87.8	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	4.0	-1.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -40,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,630 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	63.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	36.7	12.0
– Net Position:	-40,563	42,820	-2,257
– Gross Longs:	36,334	101,160	16,814
– Gross Shorts:	76,897	58,340	19,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	50.8	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.1	-17.5	30.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -6,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,054 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	53.4	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	38.8	7.4
– Net Position:	-6,498	6,301	197
– Gross Longs:	16,302	22,950	3,397
– Gross Shorts:	22,800	16,649	3,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.8	61.3	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-23.5	41.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 47,952 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.5	35.9	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	54.1	0.8
– Net Position:	47,952	-53,360	5,408
– Gross Longs:	177,555	105,410	7,854
– Gross Shorts:	129,603	158,770	2,446
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	50.5	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.1	-14.0	-7.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 2,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	28.6	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	45.5	5.7
– Net Position:	2,198	-4,324	2,126
– Gross Longs:	14,625	7,271	3,566
– Gross Shorts:	12,427	11,595	1,440
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.3	50.6	85.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.9	28.6	-3.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.2	1.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.8	5.5	5.5
– Net Position:	67	-568	501
– Gross Longs:	12,651	306	1,365
– Gross Shorts:	12,584	874	864
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.1	36.9	24.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-9.1	3.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

10 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Wheat lead Most Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 6th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The overall net speculator position totaled 122,174 net contracts this week with a gain of +19,835 contract in weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -3,239 net contracts this week with a change of +320 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 82.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 13,517 net contracts this week with a gain of +3,762 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 78.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 67 net contracts this week although with a drop of -257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -39,897 net contracts this week with a -6,592 contract decline in speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is also at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -658,606 net contracts this week with a significant drop of -129,257 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -106,952 net contracts this week with a decline of -27,703 contract in this week’s speculator positions.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Coffee speculator level is at a 1.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was -14,642 net contracts this week with a small -6 contract change in the weekly speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

Finally, the WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 5.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The speculator position was 231,720 net contracts this week with a weekly -8,019 contract shortfall in speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

10 Dec

COT Metals Speculators boosted their Silver bullish bets to 30-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Gold & Platinum lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT precious metals speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while just one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (5,122 contracts) with Platinum (1,377 contracts), Silver (1,725 contracts) and Palladium (259 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The only metals markets with declines in speculator bets this week was Copper at a total of -305 contracts.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the increasing bullishness of Silver positions. The large speculator position in Silver futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. Speculator bets have now risen by a total of +19,309 contracts over these past six weeks, going from a total of -101 contracts on October 25th to a total of +19,208 contracts this week. The recent gains have now positioned the speculator standing at its highest level since May 10th, a span of 30 weeks.

The Silver futures price has been on the move as well with prices closing out the week at $23.71. This is the highest weekly close for Silver since April and Silver is now up by over +30 percent since bottoming at the beginning of September.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,436,728	3	231,720	6	-259,553	94	27,833	45
Gold	422,100	0	115,125	21	-130,079	79	14,954	17
Silver	122,558	1	19,208	35	-32,262	65	13,054	33
Copper	158,762	9	1,679	38	-4,354	64	2,675	41
Palladium	7,785	9	-1,372	16	1,226	81	146	50
Platinum	68,821	37	25,636	44	-30,148	58	4,512	29
Natural Gas	1,010,479	11	-164,037	29	135,606	74	28,431	48
Brent	144,147	7	-28,118	64	23,746	33	4,372	68
Heating Oil	257,158	19	22,828	76	-39,506	29	16,678	56
Soybeans	622,200	11	89,661	38	-59,882	71	-29,779	21
Corn	1,232,307	1	198,375	55	-157,536	49	-40,839	20
Coffee	203,296	14	-14,642	2	12,907	98	1,735	24
Sugar	881,388	34	183,124	57	-226,066	38	42,942	61
Wheat	334,760	21	-39,897	0	42,820	100	-2,923	95

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Copper

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Platinum (43.6 percent) and Copper (37.7 percent) lead the metals category this week. Silver (35.3 percent) and then Gold (20.9 percent) comes in as the next highest metals market in strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15.7 percent) is at the lowest strength level currently and is in an Extreme-Bearish level below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (20.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (19.2 percent)
Silver (35.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (33.4 percent)
Copper (37.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.9 percent)
Platinum (43.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (41.7 percent)
Palladium (15.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.2 percent)

Silver & Platinum tops Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all metals markets were positive movers this week. Silver (21.3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (19.2 percent), Gold (15.6 percent), Copper (14.8 percent) and Palladium (2.2 percent) fill out the positive movers in the latest trends data.

Move Statistics:
Gold (15.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.0 percent)
Silver (21.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.9 percent)
Copper (14.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (17.7 percent)
Platinum (19.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.2 percent)
Palladium (2.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-2.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 115,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	27.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	58.7	5.4
– Net Position:	115,125	-130,079	14,954
– Gross Longs:	211,472	117,578	37,785
– Gross Shorts:	96,347	247,657	22,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	17.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.4	7.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,725 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	36.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	62.8	8.6
– Net Position:	19,208	-32,262	13,054
– Gross Longs:	48,954	44,757	23,648
– Gross Shorts:	29,746	77,019	10,594
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	64.7	33.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.3	-22.1	19.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,679 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.0	41.8	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	44.5	8.0
– Net Position:	1,679	-4,354	2,675
– Gross Longs:	55,496	66,286	15,368
– Gross Shorts:	53,817	70,640	12,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.7	63.6	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.7	9.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.3	29.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	72.9	4.1
– Net Position:	25,636	-30,148	4,512
– Gross Longs:	36,693	20,025	7,324
– Gross Shorts:	11,057	50,173	2,812
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.6	58.0	28.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.1	12.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,372 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 259 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	49.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.2	34.0	13.0
– Net Position:	-1,372	1,226	146
– Gross Longs:	2,460	3,875	1,157
– Gross Shorts:	3,832	2,649	1,011
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	81.1	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.2	-5.8	37.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

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