COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 62

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, WTI Crude Oil lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 10th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position continues to come in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 26.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 157,710 net contracts this week with a change of 1,142 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is now at a 79.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 32.5 this week. The speculator position registered 79,994 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 9,505 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 76.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 134,982 net contracts this week with a rise of 5,067 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 73.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 33.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 7,350 net contracts this week with a dip of -130 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 70.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.0 this week.

The speculator position was -8,151 net contracts this week with a decline of -9,513 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 205,236 net contracts this week with a drop of -22,371 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -39,716 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,425 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Coffee

The Coffee speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Coffee speculator level resides at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -14,739 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -13,927 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 3.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.9 this week. The speculator position was -98,270 net contracts this week with a gain of 15,087 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

Finally, the Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -50.9 this week. The speculator position was -53,381 net contracts this week with a rise of 2,995 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

14 Jan

Large Metals Speculators boost their Copper bets into bullish territory

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,902 contracts) with Gold (8,869 contracts), Palladium (52 contracts) and Platinum (199 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Silver with a drop by -1,921 contracts on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the boost the the Copper positions got this week. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose this week for only the first time in the past four weeks but represented the highest one-week gain of the past 64 weeks, dating back to October of 2019.

Copper speculators pushed the overall position back into bullish territory after a week spent in bearish levels on January 3rd. Copper had been in bearish territory in 29 out of the previous 37 weeks before this week’s gain.

The Copper futures price jumped by over 7 percent this week to around the $4.20 per pound level and the highest weekly close since June. Copper is also up by over 30 percent since hitting a recent low in July of 2022. The opening of China’s economy (after discarding its zero-covid policies) has been a positive development for the price outlook as China is one of the leading countries in both producing and consuming Copper.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	481,519	16	150,535	33	-172,478	66	21,943	35
Silver	129,961	7	29,013	46	-42,925	55	13,912	40
Copper	186,383	29	10,227	44	-16,253	54	6,026	60
Palladium	8,352	12	-2,490	11	2,337	85	153	51
Platinum	72,216	43	30,702	50	-34,346	53	3,644	17

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (50 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (46 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (32.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (29.7 percent)
Silver (46.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.2 percent)
Copper (44.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.6 percent)
Platinum (50.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.1 percent)
Palladium (11.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.9 percent)

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (13.4 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (12.7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-6.2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only negative mover over the past six weeks.

Move Statistics:
Gold (13.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.5 percent)
Silver (12.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (15.6 percent)
Copper (6.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-6.2 percent)
Platinum (8.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (10.8 percent)
Palladium (-6.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 150,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.6	23.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	59.0	5.1
– Net Position:	150,535	-172,478	21,943
– Gross Longs:	243,566	111,718	46,373
– Gross Shorts:	93,031	284,196	24,430
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	65.9	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-16.5	32.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,013 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.7	32.8	18.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	65.8	7.7
– Net Position:	29,013	-42,925	13,912
– Gross Longs:	56,770	42,599	23,938
– Gross Shorts:	27,757	85,524	10,026
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.1	54.7	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-13.2	12.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,227 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,902 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,675 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	37.4	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	46.2	7.3
– Net Position:	10,227	-16,253	6,026
– Gross Longs:	74,753	69,787	19,691
– Gross Shorts:	64,526	86,040	13,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	54.4	60.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-10.0	26.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 30,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,503 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.6	26.5	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	74.0	4.4
– Net Position:	30,702	-34,346	3,644
– Gross Longs:	43,745	19,128	6,832
– Gross Shorts:	13,043	53,474	3,188
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.4	52.7	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.0	-11.4

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 52 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	53.3	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	25.3	14.5
– Net Position:	-2,490	2,337	153
– Gross Longs:	2,114	4,452	1,362
– Gross Shorts:	4,604	2,115	1,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.3	84.7	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	4.6	12.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

14 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators reduced their 2-Year & 5-Year Bonds bearish bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bonds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were even this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (65,457 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (29,768 contracts), Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15,087 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (11,873 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Eurodollar (-71,774 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-27,756 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,512 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-3,929 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bonds data is this week’s breather in the highly bearish 2-Year and 5-Year speculator positioning.

The 2-Year Bond large speculator positions trimmed their bearish bets for a second straight week and for the sixth time in the past eight weeks. This improvement comes after speculators pushed their positioning to an all-time bearish low of -586,270 contracts on November 15th. Since that record low, speculators have taken off a total of 130,219 contracts from the bearish standing.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions have also improved recently with four straight weeks of decreasing bearish levels. The 5-Year speculator positions had recently fallen to 216-week low of -691,537 contracts on December 13th which marked the most bearish level since October of 2023. Since then, bets have gained by +68,386 contracts in the past four weeks.

Despite the recent improvements, both the 2-Year and 5-Year speculator levels continue to remain strongly bearish in this rising rate economic environment that also currently has yield curve inversions all over the total US bonds yield curve. However, there is the potential that both recent significant lows (in 2-Year and 5-Year) could be seen as bearish sentiment peaks if inflation data continues to moderate and the US Federal Reserve decides to scale back on their interest rate hikes.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	6,013,989	1	-1,055,535	34	1,258,804	64	-203,269	60
FedFunds	1,527,145	49	-112,330	26	129,044	76	-16,714	19
2-Year	2,319,897	25	-456,051	19	452,472	79	3,579	54
Long T-Bond	1,184,966	40	-157,385	33	129,734	57	27,651	75
10-Year	3,894,938	57	-411,358	10	488,454	80	-77,096	62
5-Year	4,095,328	57	-623,151	9	657,644	87	-34,493	72

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & Ultra Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (34 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (34 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (33 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (9 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (19 percent) come in as the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (25.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (26.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.6 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (14.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (33.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (33.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (36.3 percent)
Eurodollar (33.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (35.0 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (12 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (11 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) following next for lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-14.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (10.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (6.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-16.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-17.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-9.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (7.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.9 percent)
Eurodollar (12.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.5 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,055,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -71,774 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -983,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.5	69.9	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	48.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-1,055,535	1,258,804	-203,269
– Gross Longs:	450,880	4,201,292	306,594
– Gross Shorts:	1,506,415	2,942,488	509,863
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	63.6	59.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-12.3	8.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -112,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	76.8	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	68.3	3.1
– Net Position:	-112,330	129,044	-16,714
– Gross Longs:	132,184	1,172,814	31,131
– Gross Shorts:	244,514	1,043,770	47,845
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.8	75.5	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.8	10.4	-18.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -456,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 65,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -521,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	80.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	60.6	8.4
– Net Position:	-456,051	452,472	3,579
– Gross Longs:	220,701	1,857,300	199,092
– Gross Shorts:	676,752	1,404,828	195,513
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	79.1	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-10.1	-2.3

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -623,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -652,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	84.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	68.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-623,151	657,644	-34,493
– Gross Longs:	235,968	3,471,933	326,120
– Gross Shorts:	859,119	2,814,289	360,613
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.7	86.8	71.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	4.4	15.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -411,358 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -383,602 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	79.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	66.9	11.0
– Net Position:	-411,358	488,454	-77,096
– Gross Longs:	355,989	3,095,025	350,630
– Gross Shorts:	767,347	2,606,571	427,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	79.9	61.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	15.3	-3.4

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,270 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -113,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	78.6	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.4	65.3	16.4
– Net Position:	-98,270	193,388	-95,118
– Gross Longs:	153,296	1,138,679	142,921
– Gross Shorts:	251,566	945,291	238,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.9	89.9	63.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.9	8.7	-9.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -157,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -169,258 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.0	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	68.0	12.3
– Net Position:	-157,385	129,734	27,651
– Gross Longs:	66,962	935,742	173,392
– Gross Shorts:	224,347	806,008	145,741
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	56.9	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.4	22.4	-7.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -371,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -364,894 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	83.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	59.6	9.1
– Net Position:	-371,406	338,409	32,997
– Gross Longs:	63,917	1,176,415	161,277
– Gross Shorts:	435,323	838,006	128,280
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	79.1	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	3.7	-20.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

14 Jan

Live Cattle leads Soft Commodities Speculator bets while Corn & Sugar bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (9,505 contracts) with Cotton (1,485 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,142 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-40,779 contracts), Corn (-33,737 contracts), Coffee (-13,927 contracts), Lean Hogs (-17,857 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,591 contracts), Soybeans (-8,311 contracts), Wheat (-7,425 contracts) and Cocoa (-617 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Live Cattle speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Live Cattle gained this week for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time over the past seven weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Live Cattle (currently at +79,994 contracts) to the highest level in the past forty-six weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022.

The Live Cattle futures prices have continued to trade in a sustained uptrend with prices closing higher in each of the past seven months. Recently, the Live Cattle futures front month price touched its highest level since 2015 with a high right below the $160 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,557,092	14	205,236	0	-225,502	100	20,266	33
Gold	481,519	16	150,535	33	-172,478	66	21,943	35
Silver	129,961	7	29,013	46	-42,925	55	13,912	40
Copper	186,383	29	10,227	44	-16,253	54	6,026	60
Palladium	8,352	12	-2,490	11	2,337	85	153	51
Platinum	72,216	43	30,702	50	-34,346	53	3,644	17
Natural Gas	1,070,386	22	-172,503	27	143,506	76	28,997	49
Brent	140,391	4	-26,209	62	22,463	35	3,746	60
Heating Oil	260,845	20	16,769	67	-35,035	34	18,266	62
Soybeans	620,659	10	140,328	55	-104,166	57	-36,162	10
Corn	1,214,817	4	233,795	60	-182,611	46	-51,184	16
Coffee	210,169	19	-14,739	2	11,310	96	3,429	47
Sugar	905,839	39	187,713	58	-232,509	36	44,796	63
Wheat	334,538	20	-39,716	0	43,529	100	-3,813	91

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (60 percent), Sugar (58 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (21 percent) and the Lean Hogs (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (59.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.2 percent)
Sugar (58.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (72.5 percent)
Coffee (1.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (54.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (57.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (45.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (51.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (99.4 percent)
Live Cattle (79.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.3 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.8 percent)
Cocoa (43.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (0.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.5 percent)

Live Cattle & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Cocoa (17 percent) and Sugar (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-12 percent), Wheat (-6 percent) and Corn (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-4.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.4 percent)
Sugar (3.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.9 percent)
Coffee (-0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (17.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (26.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (26.8 percent)
Live Cattle (32.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-11.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cotton (1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.0 percent)
Cocoa (17.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.4 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 233,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 267,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.4	46.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	61.2	13.8
– Net Position:	233,795	-182,611	-51,184
– Gross Longs:	332,822	561,153	116,990
– Gross Shorts:	99,027	743,764	168,174
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	45.9	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	6.9	-8.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 228,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	44.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	69.8	5.0
– Net Position:	187,713	-232,509	44,796
– Gross Longs:	274,296	399,818	90,034
– Gross Shorts:	86,583	632,327	45,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.5	36.5	63.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.8	1.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	51.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	46.4	3.9
– Net Position:	-14,739	11,310	3,429
– Gross Longs:	48,809	108,900	11,598
– Gross Shorts:	63,548	97,590	8,169
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	96.2	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-2.6	34.7

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 140,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	48.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	65.5	12.8
– Net Position:	140,328	-104,166	-36,162
– Gross Longs:	187,837	302,217	42,977
– Gross Shorts:	47,509	406,383	79,139
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.7	57.0	9.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.0	-13.8	-17.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.5	49.1	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	68.2	6.4
– Net Position:	62,099	-71,356	9,257
– Gross Longs:	91,252	183,263	33,103
– Gross Shorts:	29,153	254,619	23,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	55.3	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	28.6	-14.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 157,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	31.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	76.0	6.3
– Net Position:	157,710	-180,580	22,870
– Gross Longs:	171,785	130,280	48,473
– Gross Shorts:	14,075	310,860	25,603
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-27.4	15.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	27.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.1	12.7
– Net Position:	79,994	-72,962	-7,032
– Gross Longs:	132,029	88,511	33,907
– Gross Shorts:	52,035	161,473	40,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	13.3	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.5	-28.0	-21.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.3	36.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	47.1	13.3
– Net Position:	25,769	-19,358	-6,411
– Gross Longs:	65,146	70,042	18,949
– Gross Shorts:	39,377	89,400	25,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.7	73.8	72.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	7.6	21.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	49.6	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.9	59.5	5.7
– Net Position:	17,944	-19,936	1,992
– Gross Longs:	58,104	99,886	13,474
– Gross Shorts:	40,160	119,822	11,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-1.2	2.6

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	44.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	54.9	3.2
– Net Position:	27,221	-31,199	3,978
– Gross Longs:	94,218	132,109	13,616
– Gross Shorts:	66,997	163,308	9,638
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	56.6	36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.3	-17.7	3.6

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	42.1	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.9	29.1	11.2
– Net Position:	-39,716	43,529	-3,813
– Gross Longs:	87,085	140,763	33,599
– Gross Shorts:	126,801	97,234	37,412
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.2	100.0	90.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	7.6	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

14 Jan

Stock Market Speculators nudge up Russell, Dow Jones & push SP500 bets more bearish

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was Russell-Mini (7,233 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (2,749 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were S&P500-Mini (-45,873 contracts), Nasdaq-Mini (-9,513 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-7,413 contracts) and the VIX (-4,807 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-10-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,032,566	3	-213,174	17	202,933	77	10,241	29
Nikkei 225	11,991	4	-2,719	65	2,717	43	2	28
Nasdaq-Mini	253,625	44	-8,151	70	13,928	35	-5,777	41
DowJones-Mini	77,628	39	-9,142	29	12,647	74	-3,505	23
VIX	301,215	34	-72,807	64	79,810	38	-7,003	57
Nikkei 225 Yen	41,161	23	9,085	62	-901	8	-8,184	64

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (70 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (65 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (17 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (64.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (67.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (16.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (25.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (29.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (25.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (70.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (75.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (34.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (30.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (64.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (27.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.1 percent)

MSCI EAFE-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets and is the only positive mover this week.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the DowJones-Mini (-4.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-3.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-3.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (4.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-4.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-10.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-0.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-0.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-5.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (15.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -72,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.6	56.7	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.8	30.2	8.7
– Net Position:	-72,807	79,810	-7,003
– Gross Longs:	50,080	170,766	19,207
– Gross Shorts:	122,887	90,956	26,210
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	38.0	57.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.5	4.3	-5.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -213,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop by -45,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.0	74.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	64.5	11.2
– Net Position:	-213,174	202,933	10,241
– Gross Longs:	243,503	1,512,933	236,946
– Gross Shorts:	456,677	1,310,000	226,705
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	77.3	28.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	0.2	1.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -9,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,749 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.4	47.8	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.2	31.5	20.4
– Net Position:	-9,142	12,647	-3,505
– Gross Longs:	25,943	37,120	12,296
– Gross Shorts:	35,085	24,473	15,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.3	74.4	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	-0.3	16.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -8,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,362 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	61.5	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	56.0	15.3
– Net Position:	-8,151	13,928	-5,777
– Gross Longs:	57,068	156,031	32,962
– Gross Shorts:	65,219	142,103	38,739
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	35.1	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	8.6	7.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -58,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.4	82.7	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	70.1	4.9
– Net Position:	-58,128	54,539	3,589
– Gross Longs:	44,813	357,515	24,756
– Gross Shorts:	102,941	302,976	21,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	63.9	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	0.9	-3.5

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,719 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,974 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	52.2	23.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	29.5	23.7
– Net Position:	-2,719	2,717	2
– Gross Longs:	2,886	6,257	2,848
– Gross Shorts:	5,605	3,540	2,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.6	43.2	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.9	6.5	-6.0

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,409 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,413 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	91.5	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.3	89.5	1.7
– Net Position:	-13,409	6,968	6,441
– Gross Longs:	15,571	318,983	12,299
– Gross Shorts:	28,980	312,015	5,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	68.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-18.2	18.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

07 Jan

Large Currency Speculators trimmed Euro bullish bets after run to 100-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (20,796 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,267 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,277 contracts), the US Dollar Index (820 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (573 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (524 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-16,247 contracts) with the British Pound (-9,414 contracts), Japanese Yen (-9,134 contracts), Mexican Peso (-4,650 contracts) and Bitcoin (-304 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currencies data is this week’s breather in the highly bullish Euro currency speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for the Euro dropped this week by the most in the past twenty-four weeks. This week’s shortfall, however, follows a strong bullish run that had seen positions rise in fourteen out of the previous seventeen weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to a new 100-week high last week at a total of +146,621 contracts and the highest since January of 2021. Despite this week’s decline, the Euro positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past ten weeks which marks the best run since 2021.

The Euro price has been in an uptrend since bottoming in September and has shot higher against the US Dollar since US inflationary data has started to cool. The Euro/US Dollar exchange rate closed just below the 1.0700 level this week after having been right at parity (1.0000) as recently as November 22nd.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,850	49	17,761	55	-20,204	44	2,443	43
EUR	712,030	74	129,915	75	-174,081	27	44,166	49
GBP	205,722	40	-20,301	52	29,692	54	-9,391	40
JPY	172,590	33	-46,864	40	46,773	58	91	54
CHF	33,250	12	-2,854	47	6,431	56	-3,577	45
CAD	138,995	23	-26,766	10	24,541	89	2,225	35
AUD	132,960	32	-36,267	51	39,595	48	-3,328	44
NZD	29,773	6	7,480	74	-8,170	27	690	60
MXN	245,029	70	-56,376	3	50,262	94	6,114	94
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	37,987	24	28,211	76	-29,648	24	1,437	78
Bitcoin	14,530	74	389	84	-578	0	189	17

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (84 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (75 percent), New Zealand Dollar (74 percent) and the US Dollar Index (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (40 percent) and the Swiss Franc (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (53.2 percent)
EuroFX (74.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (59.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (40.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (45.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (47.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (43.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (51.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (50.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (74.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (72.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (5.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.9 percent)
Bitcoin (83.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.0 percent)

Swiss Franc & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Swiss Franc (31 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (21 percent), the British Pound (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-51 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-18 percent), US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and Bitcoin (-6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-10.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-16.5 percent)
EuroFX (2.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (10.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (30.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-18.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (7.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (31.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-51.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-51.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-1.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-5.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (2.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.3	3.8	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.8	52.1	7.4
– Net Position:	17,761	-20,204	2,443
– Gross Longs:	33,171	1,588	5,538
– Gross Shorts:	15,410	21,792	3,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	43.7	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	12.3	-15.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 129,915 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.8	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	79.2	5.8
– Net Position:	129,915	-174,081	44,166
– Gross Longs:	222,543	389,861	85,209
– Gross Shorts:	92,628	563,942	41,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.9	26.6	49.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-4.6	14.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -20,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,887 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	65.8	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.1	51.3	15.3
– Net Position:	-20,301	29,692	-9,391
– Gross Longs:	43,625	135,314	22,168
– Gross Shorts:	63,926	105,622	31,559
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	54.3	39.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.4	-14.8	12.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -46,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,134 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -37,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	68.3	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	41.2	15.7
– Net Position:	-46,864	46,773	91
– Gross Longs:	25,377	117,959	27,267
– Gross Shorts:	72,241	71,186	27,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.0	58.5	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-15.3	27.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,277 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,131 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	48.9	31.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	29.6	41.8
– Net Position:	-2,854	6,431	-3,577
– Gross Longs:	6,632	16,274	10,322
– Gross Shorts:	9,486	9,843	13,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	55.6	45.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.7	-21.1	3.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,766 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.3	55.8	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	38.2	21.3
– Net Position:	-26,766	24,541	2,225
– Gross Longs:	25,497	77,624	31,870
– Gross Shorts:	52,263	53,083	29,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.9	89.2	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	9.9	6.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	56.2	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.8	26.4	15.9
– Net Position:	-36,267	39,595	-3,328
– Gross Longs:	35,208	74,724	17,847
– Gross Shorts:	71,475	35,129	21,175
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.2	48.4	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-7.8	9.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	41.6	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	69.0	10.6
– Net Position:	7,480	-8,170	690
– Gross Longs:	13,366	12,378	3,842
– Gross Shorts:	5,886	20,548	3,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	27.2	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.5	-31.2	16.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,650 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	43.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.6	22.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-56,376	50,262	6,114
– Gross Longs:	131,201	105,401	8,078
– Gross Shorts:	187,577	55,139	1,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	93.8	93.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.0	50.2	-3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,796 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.5	7.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	85.4	4.4
– Net Position:	28,211	-29,648	1,437
– Gross Longs:	32,105	2,779	3,096
– Gross Shorts:	3,894	32,427	1,659
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.2 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.1	24.0	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-20.4	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.8	0.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	78.2	4.5	6.3
– Net Position:	389	-578	189
– Gross Longs:	11,747	73	1,103
– Gross Shorts:	11,358	651	914
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	36.4	17.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	21.0	-2.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Jan

Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal & Ultra 10-Year Bonds lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 3rd.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled a gain of 27.0 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 156,568 net contracts this week with a rise of 9,695 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 91.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was a small gain of 2.2 this week. The speculator position registered -4,301 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -980 contracts in speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bitcoin speculator level resides at a 83.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -5.5 this week. The speculator position was 389 net contracts this week with a change of -304 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 76.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 20.9 this week. The speculator position was 28,211 net contracts this week with a rise by 20,796 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 75.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.9 this week. The speculator position was 1,362 net contracts this week with a small gain of 190 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.1 this week. The speculator position was -113,357 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -30,091 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -51.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -56,376 net contracts this week with a decrease of -4,650 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.6 this week. The speculator position was 227,607 net contracts this week with a drop by -20,011 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -652,919 net contracts this week with a small rise by 2,609 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Wheat

Finally, the Wheat speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 7.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.7 this week. The speculator position was -32,291 net contracts this week with an increase by 3,998 contracts in this week’s speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Jan

Metals Speculators push their Platinum bullish bets to 91-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (5,837 contracts) with Gold (4,786 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,399 contracts), Palladium (-336 contracts) and Silver (-93 contracts) registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued gains in bets for the Platinum positions. The large speculator position in Platinum futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Over the past fourteen weeks, Platinum bets have been higher in twelve of those weeks. The speculator position (sitting at +30,503 contracts) has now risen to the most bullish level since April 6th of 2021, a span of 91 weeks.

Platinum prices have been moving higher since hitting a multi-year low in early September as well. Since falling to a low just beneath $800 on September 1st, Platinum futures have been in a strong uptrend and closed this week above the $1100 price level for an almost 40 percent rise (since Sept. 1st) and the highest weekly close since March 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	449,393	7	141,666	30	-159,974	70	18,308	26
Silver	131,990	9	30,934	48	-44,211	53	13,277	37
Copper	164,594	13	-4,675	33	-163	67	4,838	53
Palladium	8,456	12	-2,542	10	2,422	87	120	49
Platinum	69,687	38	30,503	50	-33,157	54	2,654	4

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Platinum (50 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (48 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (29.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (28.1 percent)
Silver (48.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.3 percent)
Copper (32.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (36.9 percent)
Platinum (50.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (42.3 percent)
Palladium (9.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.0 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.5 percent)
Silver (15.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.8 percent)
Copper (-6.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.2 percent)
Platinum (10.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 141,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.4	25.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	60.9	5.3
– Net Position:	141,666	-159,974	18,308
– Gross Longs:	230,801	113,520	42,337
– Gross Shorts:	89,135	273,494	24,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	69.8	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-9.2	11.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -93 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	33.5	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	67.0	7.8
– Net Position:	30,934	-44,211	13,277
– Gross Longs:	57,801	44,229	23,576
– Gross Shorts:	26,867	88,440	10,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	53.5	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-15.7	12.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,675 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.7	41.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.6	42.0	7.4
– Net Position:	-4,675	-163	4,838
– Gross Longs:	57,191	68,905	17,079
– Gross Shorts:	61,866	69,068	12,241
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	66.9	53.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	4.6	10.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.6	26.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	74.5	6.1
– Net Position:	30,503	-33,157	2,654
– Gross Longs:	41,555	18,734	6,879
– Gross Shorts:	11,052	51,891	4,225
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	54.2	3.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.1	-31.8

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	55.6	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.1	26.9	13.6
– Net Position:	-2,542	2,422	120
– Gross Longs:	2,120	4,700	1,270
– Gross Shorts:	4,662	2,278	1,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	86.8	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	7.8	11.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

07 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators increased their 2-Year Bond & Eurodollar bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 2-Year Bond & Eurodollar

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (29,137 contracts) with the Eurodollar (6,950 contracts), Ultra Treasury Bonds (4,009 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (2,609 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-39,393 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-30,091 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-18,194 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-14,154 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	6,012,543	1	-983,761	35	1,179,506	62	-195,745	61
FedFunds	1,306,518	30	-108,401	26	119,440	74	-11,039	32
2-Year	2,219,812	20	-521,508	10	524,938	90	-3,430	51
Long T-Bond	1,198,425	42	-169,258	30	142,676	61	26,582	74
10-Year	3,851,091	54	-383,602	14	467,443	77	-83,841	60
5-Year	4,213,262	63	-652,919	5	709,058	93	-56,139	66

Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (36 percent) and the Eurodollar (35 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (30 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently followed by the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (10 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (14.1 percent). These markets are all in Extreme-Bearish territory with scores below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (26.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (9.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (14.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (35.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (36.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (34.7 percent)
Eurodollar (35.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (34.9 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (16 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-16 percent) and the Fed Funds (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-14.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-8.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-16.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-13.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-2.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-1.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (3.6 percent)
Eurodollar (15.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (18.0 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -983,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -990,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	69.1	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.6	49.5	8.4
– Net Position:	-983,761	1,179,506	-195,745
– Gross Longs:	497,428	4,154,503	307,951
– Gross Shorts:	1,481,189	2,974,997	503,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	62.2	61.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.5	18.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -108,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,154 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -94,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	79.1	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	70.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-108,401	119,440	-11,039
– Gross Longs:	97,128	1,033,784	32,892
– Gross Shorts:	205,529	914,344	43,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.2	74.4	31.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.8	14.9	-7.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -521,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 29,137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -550,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	81.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	57.5	8.8
– Net Position:	-521,508	524,938	-3,430
– Gross Longs:	178,437	1,801,839	192,701
– Gross Shorts:	699,945	1,276,901	196,131
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	90.1	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-9.0	6.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -652,919 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -655,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.3	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	67.5	8.9
– Net Position:	-652,919	709,058	-56,139
– Gross Longs:	290,221	3,553,482	317,117
– Gross Shorts:	943,140	2,844,424	373,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.9	92.7	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.4	12.3	5.7

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -383,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -39,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -344,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	78.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	65.8	11.1
– Net Position:	-383,602	467,443	-83,841
– Gross Longs:	405,781	3,003,300	343,068
– Gross Shorts:	789,383	2,535,857	426,909
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.1	77.4	60.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	12.3	-9.7

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -113,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -30,091 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,266 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	78.5	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	64.1	17.4
– Net Position:	-113,357	205,988	-92,631
– Gross Longs:	137,564	1,117,231	154,908
– Gross Shorts:	250,921	911,243	247,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	93.1	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.5	-1.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -169,258 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -151,064 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.5	80.3	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	68.4	12.0
– Net Position:	-169,258	142,676	26,582
– Gross Longs:	54,314	962,504	170,139
– Gross Shorts:	223,572	819,828	143,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	61.5	73.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.6	34.7	-14.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -364,894 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.4	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	60.8	8.5
– Net Position:	-364,894	319,175	45,719
– Gross Longs:	65,262	1,180,797	166,521
– Gross Shorts:	430,156	861,622	120,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	68.9	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-2.2	-6.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

07 Jan

Weekly COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (32,399 contracts) with Soybeans (15,120 contracts), Soybean Meal (9,695 contracts), Wheat (3,998 contracts), Live Cattle (3,288 contracts), Coffee (1,892 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,376 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-17,938 contracts), Cocoa (-3,065 contracts), Cotton (-3,250 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,087 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,459,936	6	227,607	4	-249,040	97	21,433	35
Gold	449,393	7	141,666	30	-159,974	70	18,308	26
Silver	131,990	9	30,934	48	-44,211	53	13,277	37
Copper	164,594	13	-4,675	33	-163	67	4,838	53
Palladium	8,456	12	-2,542	10	2,422	87	120	49
Platinum	69,687	38	30,503	50	-33,157	54	2,654	4
Natural Gas	1,031,182	15	-169,813	28	142,142	76	27,671	46
Brent	139,687	4	-26,514	61	23,081	36	3,433	56
Heating Oil	252,205	17	16,613	67	-34,031	35	17,418	59
Soybeans	603,609	7	148,639	57	-111,329	55	-37,310	8
Corn	1,221,434	4	267,532	64	-217,117	41	-50,415	16
Coffee	187,767	3	-812	18	-641	83	1,453	20
Sugar	940,021	45	228,492	72	-273,497	25	45,005	63
Wheat	331,577	19	-32,291	7	37,636	94	-5,345	83

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent), Corn (64 percent) and Soybeans (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (7 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Cotton (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Cocoa (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (60.1 percent)
Sugar (72.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.5 percent)
Soybeans (57.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (51.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.3 percent)
Live Cattle (67.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (37.4 percent)
Cotton (19.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.3 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.4 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.9 percent)

Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (27 percent) and Soybeans (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (19 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Sugar (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-5 percent) and Cotton (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.3 percent)
Sugar (13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.0 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.2 percent)
Soybeans (25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-19.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-24.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (18.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.3 percent)
Cocoa (12.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.0 percent)
Wheat (-4.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 267,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	44.4	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.5	62.1	13.7
– Net Position:	267,532	-217,117	-50,415
– Gross Longs:	359,493	541,890	117,043
– Gross Shorts:	91,961	759,007	167,458
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	41.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	-0.2	-11.2

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 228,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	40.5	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	69.6	5.2
– Net Position:	228,492	-273,497	45,005
– Gross Longs:	325,685	381,086	93,920
– Gross Shorts:	97,193	654,583	48,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	24.7	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-10.7	-3.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	51.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.1	51.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-812	-641	1,453
– Gross Longs:	46,411	96,423	9,429
– Gross Shorts:	47,223	97,064	7,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	83.1	19.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-16.9	0.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 148,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	47.1	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	65.5	13.2
– Net Position:	148,639	-111,329	-37,310
– Gross Longs:	195,320	284,335	42,635
– Gross Shorts:	46,681	395,664	79,945
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	54.6	7.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-21.7	-19.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	47.7	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	69.2	6.0
– Net Position:	70,690	-80,697	10,007
– Gross Longs:	99,018	178,653	32,575
– Gross Shorts:	28,328	259,350	22,568
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	49.5	50.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	19.2	-6.3

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 156,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,873 net contracts.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	34.9	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	3.4	78.4	5.6
– Net Position:	156,568	-175,970	19,402
– Gross Longs:	170,218	141,313	42,222
– Gross Shorts:	13,650	317,283	22,820
– Long to Short Ratio:	12.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	33.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.0	-26.2	-4.3

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.8	29.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	48.3	11.3
– Net Position:	70,489	-63,397	-7,092
– Gross Longs:	129,128	97,353	30,372
– Gross Shorts:	58,639	160,750	37,464
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	26.5	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-14.7	-16.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	36.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.0	52.9	14.0
– Net Position:	43,626	-31,671	-11,955
– Gross Longs:	73,833	68,295	14,524
– Gross Shorts:	30,207	99,966	26,479
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.3	58.6	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	1.1	-4.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	50.2	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	59.1	6.0
– Net Position:	16,459	-17,685	1,226
– Gross Longs:	59,178	99,292	13,198
– Gross Shorts:	42,719	116,977	11,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.8	80.6	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.8	0.3

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.4	43.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	54.9	3.2
– Net Position:	27,838	-31,978	4,140
– Gross Longs:	87,974	121,844	12,987
– Gross Shorts:	60,136	153,822	8,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.4	55.8	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-13.1	7.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	42.8	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.3	31.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-32,291	37,636	-5,345
– Gross Longs:	84,689	141,962	30,370
– Gross Shorts:	116,980	104,326	35,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	93.8	82.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.7	8.3	-11.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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