COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 59

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (24,054 contracts) with Soybeans (9,341 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,784 contracts), Cocoa (6,661 contracts), Corn (5,636 contracts), Coffee (4,711 contracts), Live Cattle (4,243 contracts), Cotton (1,857 contracts), Lean Hogs (2,611 contracts) and Wheat (3,312 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-16,519 contracts) with also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,951,628	49	172,442	4	-198,377	95	25,935	31
Gold	436,301	7	175,641	54	-198,187	47	22,546	36
Silver	137,871	23	21,475	49	-34,065	53	12,590	36
Copper	229,756	66	-25,956	8	24,610	92	1,346	27
Palladium	11,541	76	-6,602	5	7,192	97	-590	6
Platinum	67,537	65	24,613	72	-28,747	34	4,134	24
Natural Gas	1,389,864	85	-126,852	21	92,364	76	34,488	62
Brent	135,100	8	-42,455	23	41,681	84	774	20
Heating Oil	307,550	39	21,277	66	-28,835	61	7,558	25
Soybeans	669,123	21	39,155	5	-16,089	91	-23,066	36
Corn	1,322,137	17	-14,771	27	66,120	82	-51,349	26
Coffee	204,447	16	28,331	56	-28,769	47	438	18
Sugar	1,021,535	75	233,868	74	-278,395	25	44,527	61
Wheat	405,201	69	-90,684	2	85,364	97	5,320	91

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (97 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (74 percent), Soybean Meal (62 percent) and Coffee (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (2 percent), Wheat (2 percent), Soybeans (5 percent) and the Soybean Oil (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (26.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (26.2 percent)
Sugar (73.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.4 percent)
Coffee (56.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (51.6 percent)
Soybeans (4.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (61.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (57.0 percent)
Live Cattle (96.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (91.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (2.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (21.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (92.5 percent)
Wheat (2.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

Cotton & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (16 percent) and Cocoa (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybeans (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-16 percent), Coffee (-8 percent) and Lean Hogs (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.4 percent)
Sugar (-16.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-6.7 percent)
Coffee (-8.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.7 percent)
Soybeans (-25.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-58.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (6.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-12.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (-4.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-18.6 percent)
Live Cattle (4.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-5.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.4 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.6 percent)
Cocoa (11.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.0 percent)
Wheat (-5.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-16.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,771 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,636 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.3	50.8	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	45.8	12.8
– Net Position:	-14,771	66,120	-51,349
– Gross Longs:	268,763	672,074	117,595
– Gross Shorts:	283,534	605,954	168,944
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.9	81.7	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	4.5	6.9

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 233,868 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,519 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 250,387 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	42.7	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.1	70.0	4.7
– Net Position:	233,868	-278,395	44,527
– Gross Longs:	316,809	436,281	92,941
– Gross Shorts:	82,941	714,676	48,414
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.6	24.7	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.2	17.4	-15.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,711 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	44.4	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	58.4	3.4
– Net Position:	28,331	-28,769	438
– Gross Longs:	49,241	90,686	7,356
– Gross Shorts:	20,910	119,455	6,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	47.3	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	8.9	-8.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	52.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	55.0	10.4
– Net Position:	39,155	-16,089	-23,066
– Gross Longs:	136,718	351,669	46,263
– Gross Shorts:	97,563	367,758	69,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.5	91.3	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.5	20.9	8.2

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,194 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.6	58.0	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	56.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-7,194	10,834	-3,640
– Gross Longs:	84,021	312,922	30,043
– Gross Shorts:	91,215	302,088	33,683
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.0	88.2	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.4	-5.0	-5.5

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,533 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	37.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	61.3	6.8
– Net Position:	103,317	-117,624	14,307
– Gross Longs:	131,273	185,802	47,980
– Gross Shorts:	27,956	303,426	33,673
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.6	41.2	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	4.8	-5.6

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 105,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,243 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.5	26.9	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	56.3	11.9
– Net Position:	105,621	-97,322	-8,299
– Gross Longs:	150,516	89,224	31,127
– Gross Shorts:	44,895	186,546	39,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.5	3.2	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-5.9	7.1

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,611 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	39.1	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.4	25.1	8.8
– Net Position:	-33,503	31,957	1,546
– Gross Longs:	55,832	88,831	21,583
– Gross Shorts:	89,335	56,874	20,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.1	98.9	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	7.4	-8.0

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,469 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	48.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	59.3	4.8
– Net Position:	16,469	-21,021	4,552
– Gross Longs:	60,225	94,138	13,865
– Gross Shorts:	43,756	115,159	9,313
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.1	76.1	43.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-18.5	33.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.0	27.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	50.5	3.5
– Net Position:	72,234	-76,549	4,315
– Gross Longs:	147,856	92,990	15,922
– Gross Shorts:	75,622	169,539	11,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-11.6	-2.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -90,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -93,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	39.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.7	18.0	8.8
– Net Position:	-90,684	85,364	5,320
– Gross Longs:	106,834	158,400	40,861
– Gross Shorts:	197,518	73,036	35,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	97.2	91.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	8.0	-8.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

04 Jun

Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (18,612 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (4,955 contracts), British Pound (1,646 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,528 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (233 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (468 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-15,533 contracts) with the EuroFX (-8,011 contracts), the Mexican Peso (1,062 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,417 contracts) and Bitcoin (-706 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued gains for the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators raised their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the fifth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +129,731 contracts since the beginning of 2023 (a total of 22 weeks), going from a total of -56,376 contracts on January 3rd to a total of +78,005 contracts this week. This rise in the speculator sentiment has pushed the current net position to the highest level in the past 168 weeks, dating all the way back to the height of the pandemic on March 10th of 2020.

The peso has been riding the tide of record high interest rates in Mexico that had risen to 11.25 percent level at the central bank meeting in March. However, the Mexican Central Bank, in their May meeting, held their rate steady and look to continue to do so for the time being with inflation subsiding in the latest data-points.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been surging higher this year with the MXN hitting a new 7-year high in this week’s trading. Overall, the peso is higher against the dollar in 2023 by approximately 15 percent and is trading at the best levels since 2016.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,373	28	12,768	46	-16,260	50	3,492	55
EUR	775,142	81	165,725	82	-214,015	18	48,290	56
GBP	240,301	61	13,235	80	-15,208	24	1,973	62
JPY	243,237	75	-96,193	10	106,512	88	-10,319	32
CHF	41,354	40	-435	53	1,533	48	-1,098	54
CAD	179,871	50	-29,914	27	39,037	83	-9,123	3
AUD	204,963	94	-44,126	44	59,100	63	-14,974	16
NZD	39,507	33	-130	53	1,195	49	-1,065	37
MXN	224,395	46	78,005	100	-83,021	0	5,016	75
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	64,846	59	31,275	76	-35,269	21	3,994	76
Bitcoin	11,715	45	187	80	-624	0	437	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (80 percent), Bitcoin (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (27 percent), the Australian Dollar (44 percent) and the US Dollar Index (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.7 percent)
EuroFX (82.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (80.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (53.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.4 percent)
Bitcoin (80.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (92.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (22 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (15 percent), the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-2 percent), EuroFX (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-24.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-10.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.1 percent)
Bitcoin (11.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (35.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.9	2.5	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	52.8	7.5
– Net Position:	12,768	-16,260	3,492
– Gross Longs:	23,927	819	5,936
– Gross Shorts:	11,159	17,079	2,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	49.9	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.8	22.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 165,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	53.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	81.3	5.9
– Net Position:	165,725	-214,015	48,290
– Gross Longs:	241,817	415,872	93,836
– Gross Shorts:	76,092	629,887	45,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	18.2	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.2	-1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	51.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	57.9	11.5
– Net Position:	13,235	-15,208	1,973
– Gross Longs:	70,320	124,002	29,613
– Gross Shorts:	57,085	139,210	27,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	23.8	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-4.9	-9.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -96,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	24.8	16.3
– Net Position:	-96,193	106,512	-10,319
– Gross Longs:	40,736	166,931	29,299
– Gross Shorts:	136,929	60,419	39,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	87.6	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	21.9	-11.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	44.9	32.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	41.2	35.3
– Net Position:	-435	1,533	-1,098
– Gross Longs:	8,482	18,560	13,516
– Gross Shorts:	8,917	17,027	14,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	47.5	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-3.1	-8.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	59.6	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	37.9	20.3
– Net Position:	-29,914	39,037	-9,123
– Gross Longs:	37,619	107,243	27,430
– Gross Shorts:	67,533	68,206	36,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	82.7	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-2.1	-29.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	53.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	24.6	16.8
– Net Position:	-44,126	59,100	-14,974
– Gross Longs:	68,969	109,462	19,509
– Gross Shorts:	113,095	50,362	34,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	63.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	6.4	-16.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	47.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	44.1	12.0
– Net Position:	-130	1,195	-1,065
– Gross Longs:	16,081	18,608	3,670
– Gross Shorts:	16,211	17,413	4,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	49.3	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-5.9	-14.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 78,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,943 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	44.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	81.1	1.3
– Net Position:	78,005	-83,021	5,016
– Gross Longs:	115,535	98,971	7,942
– Gross Shorts:	37,530	181,992	2,926
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-14.9	3.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	29.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	83.5	9.3
– Net Position:	31,275	-35,269	3,994
– Gross Longs:	35,223	18,861	9,998
– Gross Shorts:	3,948	54,130	6,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	21.3	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-25.2	22.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	2.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.6	7.5	6.3
– Net Position:	187	-624	437
– Gross Longs:	9,040	251	1,178
– Gross Shorts:	8,853	875	741
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	35.2	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-18.8	-5.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

04 Jun

Speculators drop 2-Year, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds bets to new record lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (144,765 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (47,285 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (9,208 contracts) and the Eurodollar (3,739 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-91,660 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-78,783 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-79,661 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-49,768 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-16,677 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop 2-Year, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds bets to new record lows

Highlighting the COT bonds data this week was the further rise in the record bearish speculator positions for the 2-Year, 5-Year and 10-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply decreased (weekly change of -79,661 contracts) their bets for the fifth consecutive week this week. The speculative position has now added a gigantic total of -423,556 contracts to the bearish position in just the past five weeks alone. This brings the overall net position to the new all-time record bearish level of -969,863 contracts.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions also fell once again this week by -49,768 contracts and have now declined for six consecutive weeks. The 5-Year speculator bets have added a total of -229,335 contracts to the bearish position in just the past six weeks and have established a new record bearish level of -983,837 contracts.

Large speculative 10-Year Bond positions also continued to fall this week for a second straight week. The -157,979 contract shortfall over the past two weeks has dropped the 10-Year to its own all-time record low for a second consecutive week with this week’s record at a total of -850,421 contracts.

The latest data is through Tuesday and prior to the final agreement on the debt ceiling so it will be interesting to see if there are sharp adjustments made in next week’s data with a new debt ceiling deal done.

All three bond markets saw higher futures prices to close out the week and remain off their lows of this bearish cycle despite the speculator’s historically weak sentiment. The 2-Year is higher by approximately 1.40 percent from its March 2023 low, the 5-Year is higher by approximately 3 percent from the October 2022 low while the 10-Year is higher by approximately 4.50 percent from its own October 2022 low-point.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	560,386	0	-37,810	73	45,422	23	-7,612	98
FedFunds	1,855,851	77	-180,155	17	189,980	83	-9,825	72
2-Year	3,162,876	93	-969,863	0	885,109	100	84,754	96
Long T-Bond	1,280,460	78	-59,913	65	12,279	15	47,634	83
10-Year	4,728,273	90	-850,421	0	758,535	100	91,886	94
5-Year	4,871,724	88	-983,837	0	922,460	100	61,377	98

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (98 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Fed Funds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (17.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (28.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (7.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (21.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (65.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (70.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (14.8 percent)
Eurodollar (73.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (98.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (86.3 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (54 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-21 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-17 percent) and the Fed Funds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-7.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (9.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-37.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-21.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-15.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (7.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (18.6 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (29.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-4.2 percent)
Eurodollar (0.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (4.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -37,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	61.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	53.3	11.2
– Net Position:	-37,810	45,422	-7,612
– Gross Longs:	161,451	344,051	54,884
– Gross Shorts:	199,261	298,629	62,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	22.8	97.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.0	-2.4

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 144,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -101,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	61.0	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.6	61.3	0.6
– Net Position:	43,222	-28,251	-14,971
– Gross Longs:	1,690,850	6,052,948	45,501
– Gross Shorts:	1,647,628	6,081,199	60,472
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.0	3.1	79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.2	-53.2	-7.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -180,155 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -91,660 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	76.9	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	66.7	2.9
– Net Position:	-180,155	189,980	-9,825
– Gross Longs:	115,276	1,427,182	43,471
– Gross Shorts:	295,431	1,237,202	53,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	82.8	71.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	7.3	4.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -969,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -79,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -890,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	83.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.3	55.9	4.7
– Net Position:	-969,863	885,109	84,754
– Gross Longs:	242,645	2,651,778	233,553
– Gross Shorts:	1,212,508	1,766,669	148,799
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.3	39.2	14.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -983,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -49,768 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -934,069 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	83.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	64.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-983,837	922,460	61,377
– Gross Longs:	338,249	4,064,536	368,659
– Gross Shorts:	1,322,086	3,142,076	307,282
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	20.5	6.5

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -850,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -78,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -771,638 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	79.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	63.8	6.9
– Net Position:	-850,421	758,535	91,886
– Gross Longs:	412,506	3,774,585	417,126
– Gross Shorts:	1,262,927	3,016,050	325,240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	12.7	11.0

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -110,794 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 47,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -158,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	75.1	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	64.9	14.7
– Net Position:	-110,794	170,548	-59,754
– Gross Longs:	203,767	1,258,392	185,836
– Gross Shorts:	314,561	1,087,844	245,590
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.9	70.6	78.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.5	-25.0	12.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -59,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,236 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	73.3	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	72.3	10.9
– Net Position:	-59,913	12,279	47,634
– Gross Longs:	108,088	938,620	187,052
– Gross Shorts:	168,001	926,341	139,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	15.0	83.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.6	-12.1	-16.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -399,900 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,208 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -409,108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	81.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	58.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-399,900	342,324	57,576
– Gross Longs:	80,393	1,198,201	175,098
– Gross Shorts:	480,293	855,877	117,522
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.7	71.7	97.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-2.7	6.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

04 Jun

Copper Speculators added to their bearish positions for 167-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (8,584 contracts) with Steel (12 contracts) also having a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,894 contracts), Silver (-834 contracts), Palladium (-761 contracts) and Platinum (-4,073 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Copper Speculators added to their bearish positions for 167-week low

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued slide for the Copper speculative positions.

The large speculator position in Copper futures fell by -5,894 contracts this week and have now declined in five out of the past six weeks. The decrease in Copper bets has taken the current net contracts from a standing of +8,934 contracts on April 18th to a total of -35,702 contracts this week for an overall 6-week decline by -44,636 contracts.

This week’s standing marks the most bearish level of the past 167-weeks, dating back to March 17th of 2020 when bearish positions were -38,055 contracts.

Copper prices have been on the decline since last year with prices down by a little over 25 percent since the highs of March 2022. Recent weakness in China’s economy is continuing to weigh on Copper’s outlook. The futures price closed higher this week at $3.72 and bounced off the 200-week moving average which coincides with a $3.65 support level. Futures prices had fallen in five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s slight rebound.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	449,515	13	169,316	52	-190,005	51	20,689	32
Silver	133,619	18	21,124	48	-34,536	52	13,412	41
Copper	223,185	61	-35,702	0	34,259	100	1,443	28
Palladium	10,658	64	-6,050	10	6,472	91	-422	16
Platinum	69,929	72	23,406	70	-27,973	36	4,567	29

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (70 percent) and Steel (58 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (0 percent) and Palladium (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (51.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.8 percent)
Silver (48.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.6 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (5.1 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (79.0 percent)
Palladium (9.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)
Steel (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)

Platinum & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (-2 percent) and Steel (-2 percent) are the leaders over the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-39 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-9 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-9.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-14.1 percent)
Silver (-7.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.5 percent)
Copper (-38.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-22.0 percent)
Platinum (-2.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.6 percent)
Palladium (-3.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)
Steel (-1.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 169,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.8	29.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	71.9	5.1
– Net Position:	169,316	-190,005	20,689
– Gross Longs:	237,306	133,329	43,611
– Gross Shorts:	67,990	323,334	22,922
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	50.6	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.2	-14.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -834 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.0	31.1	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	57.0	9.0
– Net Position:	21,124	-34,536	13,412
– Gross Longs:	54,837	41,602	25,484
– Gross Shorts:	33,713	76,138	12,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.4	52.1	40.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	5.0	7.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -35,702 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	48.9	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.7	33.5	6.7
– Net Position:	-35,702	34,259	1,443
– Gross Longs:	55,099	109,115	16,379
– Gross Shorts:	90,801	74,856	14,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.6	41.8	-37.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,406 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.7	29.6	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.2	69.7	3.9
– Net Position:	23,406	-27,973	4,567
– Gross Longs:	37,534	20,734	7,315
– Gross Shorts:	14,128	48,707	2,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.6	35.6	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	0.5	9.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.9	70.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.6	9.4	16.2
– Net Position:	-6,050	6,472	-422
– Gross Longs:	1,584	7,473	1,308
– Gross Shorts:	7,634	1,001	1,730
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	7.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.5	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	2.7	5.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,299 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.9	83.3	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	64.6	1.1
– Net Position:	-5,299	5,413	-114
– Gross Longs:	2,291	24,022	200
– Gross Shorts:	7,590	18,609	314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.8	5.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.5	2.3	-33.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

04 Jun

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (41,860 contracts) with Soybeans (609 contracts) and Cocoa (199 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-23,423 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-15,489 contracts), Coffee (-9,128 contracts), Cotton (-7,707 contracts), Wheat (-7,677 contracts), Lean Hogs (-2,262 contracts), Soybean Oil (-3,385 contracts) and Live Cattle (-269 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Wheat Speculators continue to raise bearish bets to 279-week high

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the rising bearish level of the Wheat’s speculator’s positioning.

Wheat speculator bets continued to fall again this week for a second straight week and for the eleventh time out of the past fifteen weeks. Speculator positions have now added approximately -60,000 contracts to the bearish level over the past fifteen weeks.

The Wheat speculator standing, currently at -93,996 contracts, has fallen to the most bearish level of the past 279 weeks, dating back to January 23rd of 2018.

Wheat prices have also been on the downtrend since hitting all-time record high levels in March of 2022 and have now fallen over 50 percent from those highest levels of 2022. Wheat futures closed this week at $619.00 with the low of this week touching the lowest price since December of 2020 near 573.20

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,920,740	47	162,591	2	-192,877	97	30,286	40
Gold	449,515	13	169,316	52	-190,005	51	20,689	32
Silver	133,619	18	21,124	48	-34,536	52	13,412	41
Copper	223,185	61	-35,702	0	34,259	100	1,443	28
Palladium	10,658	64	-6,050	10	6,472	91	-422	16
Platinum	69,929	72	23,406	70	-27,973	36	4,567	29
Natural Gas	1,359,496	79	-106,170	30	74,969	69	31,201	54
Brent	148,868	21	-53,294	0	48,912	100	4,382	68
Heating Oil	309,819	40	18,341	61	-22,943	70	4,602	14
Soybeans	672,482	21	29,814	1	-4,162	95	-25,652	32
Corn	1,319,205	17	-20,407	27	72,210	82	-51,803	25
Coffee	202,708	14	23,620	52	-23,623	52	3	13
Sugar	962,437	62	250,387	79	-293,732	20	43,345	59
Wheat	395,158	63	-93,996	0	88,847	100	5,149	91

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (79 percent), Soybean Meal (57 percent) and Coffee (52 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Soybean Oil (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Wheat (0 percent) and the Soybeans (1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (22.1 percent)
Sugar (79.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (87.7 percent)
Coffee (51.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (2.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (57.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (65.1 percent)
Live Cattle (91.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.9 percent)
Cotton (19.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.5 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (99.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.5 percent)

Cocoa & Cotton top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (8 percent) and Cotton (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Soybeans (-58 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-19 percent), Wheat (-17 percent) and Corn (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (-21.2 percent)
Sugar (-6.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.0 percent)
Coffee (-13.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybeans (-58.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-59.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-12.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-18.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-3.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-0.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (7.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-7.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.0 percent)
Cotton (7.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.3 percent)
Cocoa (7.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-16.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-13.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 41,860 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,267 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	51.9	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	46.5	12.7
– Net Position:	-20,407	72,210	-51,803
– Gross Longs:	274,956	685,222	115,112
– Gross Shorts:	295,363	613,012	166,915
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.4	82.2	24.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	16.1	10.6

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 250,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -23,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 273,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	40.2	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.5	70.7	4.8
– Net Position:	250,387	-293,732	43,345
– Gross Longs:	332,464	386,730	89,595
– Gross Shorts:	82,077	680,462	46,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	20.0	59.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.7	9.9	-18.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,620 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	46.9	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	58.5	3.4
– Net Position:	23,620	-23,623	3
– Gross Longs:	47,353	95,031	6,827
– Gross Shorts:	23,733	118,654	6,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.6	52.4	12.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	14.6	-15.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 29,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 609 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	53.7	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.3	10.4
– Net Position:	29,814	-4,162	-25,652
– Gross Longs:	132,301	360,791	44,298
– Gross Shorts:	102,487	364,953	69,950
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	95.4	31.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-58.0	50.3	4.3

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,248 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	56.8	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.4	50.7	6.1
– Net Position:	-31,248	33,635	-2,387
– Gross Longs:	80,635	311,897	31,021
– Gross Shorts:	111,883	278,262	33,408
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	13.8	-19.1

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 94,533 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 110,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	39.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.6	61.7	6.9
– Net Position:	94,533	-107,413	12,880
– Gross Longs:	121,664	191,186	46,401
– Gross Shorts:	27,131	298,599	33,521
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	46.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	20.7	-16.7

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 101,378 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	27.3	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.2	54.8	12.8
– Net Position:	101,378	-90,357	-11,021
– Gross Longs:	151,401	89,705	31,082
– Gross Shorts:	50,023	180,062	42,103
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.8	11.7	28.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	2.9	-9.6

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -36,114 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	38.1	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	24.0	8.5
– Net Position:	-36,114	33,233	2,881
– Gross Longs:	54,977	89,961	22,880
– Gross Shorts:	91,091	56,728	19,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	8.7	-3.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	48.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	56.7	5.5
– Net Position:	14,612	-15,861	1,249
– Gross Longs:	58,770	95,264	12,016
– Gross Shorts:	44,158	111,125	10,767
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.7	79.6	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-5.9	-9.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,573 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 199 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,374 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	29.7	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	50.7	3.3
– Net Position:	65,573	-71,049	5,476
– Gross Longs:	142,385	100,654	16,614
– Gross Shorts:	76,812	171,703	11,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	51.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-8.3	6.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	39.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	16.7	8.6
– Net Position:	-93,996	88,847	5,149
– Gross Longs:	107,338	154,656	39,165
– Gross Shorts:	201,334	65,809	34,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	90.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	18.9	-0.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

03 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Cocoa, Lean Hogs, Wheat & Brent top Bull/Bear Leaders

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 30th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,668 net contracts this week with a change of 9 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 7.5 this week. The speculator position registered 65,573 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher of 199 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 15.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 78,005 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,062 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 54.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,222 net contracts this week with a jump of 144,765 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 91.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.8 this week.

The speculator position was 101,378 net contracts this week with a small decline of -269 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,114 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,262 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.6 this week. The speculator position was -31,248 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,385 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -93,996 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,677 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Brent Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.4 this week. The speculator position was -53,294 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,488 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.5 this week. The speculator position was -850,421 net contracts this week with a decrease of -78,783 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

27 May

Currency Speculators drop Japanese Yen bets to 30-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,513 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,308 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,726 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (1,712 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (956 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-15,869 contracts), EuroFX (-13,353 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-5,536 contracts), British Pound (-1,004 contracts), Brazilian Real (-914 contracts) and Bitcoin (-118 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop Japanese Yen bets to 30-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewed weakness of the speculator’s positioning for the Japanese yen.

Large speculative yen positions dropped this week by -15,869 net contracts and fell for the second week in a row. Over the past fifteen weeks, yen speculator bets have declined in eight of those weeks and a total of -51,571 contracts has been added to the bearish standing.

This week’s yen net position of -80,660 contracts marks the most bearish level of the past 30 weeks, dating back to October. From November to late-January, the yen positions had started to improve and started to shed bearish bets. The spec position saw improving positions in 10 out of 12 weeks through January 31st and this improvement brought the overall net position down to just -20,060 contracts. Since then, however, bearish bets have steadily risen and culminated in this week’s 30-week high.

The yen futures price is also back in a downtrend after rising approximately 17 percent from the most recent bottom in October to the most recent top in January. The yen futures have now fallen for three straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks with this week’s closing price at 0.0071 and at the lowest level since November.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	30,203	24	11,240	44	-13,869	54	2,629	45
EUR	781,123	84	173,736	85	-224,195	15	50,459	59
GBP	237,614	60	11,589	79	-16,676	23	5,087	68
JPY	226,400	64	-80,660	19	92,378	81	-11,718	30
CHF	44,808	52	-903	52	1,691	48	-788	55
CAD	159,199	36	-48,526	9	49,140	90	-614	21
AUD	180,138	74	-49,081	39	60,043	64	-10,962	26
NZD	39,011	32	-363	53	-556	45	919	61
MXN	233,538	49	76,943	100	-82,616	0	5,673	83
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	53,223	44	32,692	77	-36,671	20	3,979	76
Bitcoin	13,043	56	893	93	-1,245	0	352	21

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and Bitcoin (93 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (85 percent), British Pound (79 percent) and the Brazilian Real (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the US Dollar Index (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (40.8 percent)
EuroFX (85.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (90.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (29.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (39.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (35.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (52.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (77.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.5 percent)
Bitcoin (92.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.6 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (35 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (15 percent), the British Pound (12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.7 percent)
EuroFX (4.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-10.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-24.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (25.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (24.9 percent)
Bitcoin (35.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (28.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.5	2.8	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	48.8	9.2
– Net Position:	11,240	-13,869	2,629
– Gross Longs:	22,194	859	5,398
– Gross Shorts:	10,954	14,728	2,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	53.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	1.8	9.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	82.2	5.3
– Net Position:	173,736	-224,195	50,459
– Gross Longs:	250,070	418,071	92,077
– Gross Shorts:	76,334	642,266	41,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	14.8	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-4.1	2.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	51.9	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	58.9	10.9
– Net Position:	11,589	-16,676	5,087
– Gross Longs:	69,203	123,348	31,097
– Gross Shorts:	57,614	140,024	26,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	22.8	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-7.7	-5.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	69.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	28.8	17.4
– Net Position:	-80,660	92,378	-11,718
– Gross Longs:	36,760	157,498	27,680
– Gross Shorts:	117,420	65,120	39,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	80.7	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	17.6	-25.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	40.9	30.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	37.1	32.3
– Net Position:	-903	1,691	-788
– Gross Longs:	10,267	18,328	13,674
– Gross Shorts:	11,170	16,637	14,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	47.8	54.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-13.3	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	65.1	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	34.2	19.9
– Net Position:	-48,526	49,140	-614
– Gross Longs:	20,388	103,597	31,126
– Gross Shorts:	68,914	54,457	31,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	89.6	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-6.2	2.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	56.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.9	23.3	16.7
– Net Position:	-49,081	60,043	-10,962
– Gross Longs:	53,419	102,079	19,057
– Gross Shorts:	102,500	42,036	30,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	63.7	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	9.7	-4.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	45.8	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	47.2	8.0
– Net Position:	-363	-556	919
– Gross Longs:	16,648	17,854	4,036
– Gross Shorts:	17,011	18,410	3,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	45.2	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-7.4	-11.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.8	45.6	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	81.0	1.1
– Net Position:	76,943	-82,616	5,673
– Gross Longs:	118,579	106,541	8,155
– Gross Shorts:	41,636	189,157	2,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-11.6	7.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.1	17.0	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	85.9	3.3
– Net Position:	32,692	-36,671	3,979
– Gross Longs:	38,371	9,074	5,736
– Gross Shorts:	5,679	45,745	1,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	19.5	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-27.2	18.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	1.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.8	10.8	6.6
– Net Position:	893	-1,245	352
– Gross Longs:	10,124	168	1,207
– Gross Shorts:	9,231	1,413	855
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	9.1	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.1	-67.9	-9.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 May

Speculator Extremes: MXN, Cocoa, US Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 23rd.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 76,943 net contracts this week with a change of 3,308 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 9.7 this week. The speculator position registered -1,677 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 20 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 6.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 65,374 net contracts this week with a change of 1,319 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 35.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 893 net contracts this week with a change of -118 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.9 this week.

The speculator position was 101,647 net contracts this week with a change of -469 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -33,852 net contracts this week with a change of -5,118 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.9 this week. The speculator position was -771,638 net contracts this week with a change of -79,196 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -40.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -890,202 net contracts this week with a change of -36,627 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The S&P500 Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.1 this week. The speculator position was -404,292 net contracts this week with a change of -15,571 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.7 this week. The speculator position was -934,069 net contracts this week with a change of -10,156 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

COT Updates Opinions

27 May

Speculators drop their 10-Year Bonds bets to lowest level on record

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (65,278 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (28,348 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (18,345 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-79,196 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-36,627 contracts), the Fed Funds (-20,924 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-20,128 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-10,156 contracts) and the Eurodollar (-4,665 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bonds Speculator bets hit lowest level on record

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the record weakness in the 10-Year Treasury Bond contracts. The 10-Year Bond contract dropped this week by -79,196 contracts and fell for the sixth time out of the past eight weeks which has added a total of -300,060 contracts to the bearish level.

This weakness has pushed the 10-Year speculative positions to hit their most bearish level on record this week at a total of -771,638 contracts, according to CFTC data that stretches back to 1986. This eclipses the previous record of -756,316 contracts that was reached on September of 2018.

The 10-Year now joins both the 2-Year and 5-Year Treasury Bonds with current record low levels in speculator positions.

The 2-Year speculator positions fell again this week for the fourth straight week and has a new record low level position at -890,202 contracts. The 2-Year speculators have added a total of -343,895 contracts to the bearish standing in just the past four weeks.

Meanwhile, the 5-Year speculator positioning dropped again for the fifth consecutive week and hit a new record bearish position of -934,069 contracts. A total of-179,567 contracts has been added to the bearish position in the past five weeks.

The 10-Year futures price is back on the downtrend over the past three weeks after rising to touch a 7-month high in March. The futures price closed this week at 112.13 which still remains about 3.30 percent above the most recent low-point (and approximately 15-year low) that was hit in October.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	556,278	0	-41,549	73	43,737	23	-2,188	99
FedFunds	1,735,674	66	-88,495	29	107,292	73	-18,797	54
2-Year	3,266,610	100	-890,202	0	800,371	100	89,831	99
Long T-Bond	1,299,274	83	-43,236	71	3,696	12	39,540	77
10-Year	4,902,288	100	-771,638	0	682,402	95	89,236	93
5-Year	5,105,531	100	-934,069	0	882,607	100	51,462	95

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (86 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (8.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (14.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (23.4 percent)
Eurodollar (73.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (86.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (81.0 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (29 percent) and the Eurodollar (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 2-Year Bonds (-40 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (9.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-40.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-35.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-13.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-13.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
Eurodollar (15.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (4.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (2.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,884 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	61.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	53.1	10.3
– Net Position:	-41,549	43,737	-2,188
– Gross Longs:	156,341	339,284	55,303
– Gross Shorts:	197,890	295,547	57,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	22.8	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-18.0	31.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -166,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	61.1	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	59.9	0.5
– Net Position:	-101,543	108,863	-7,320
– Gross Longs:	1,568,592	5,953,387	45,538
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,135	5,844,524	52,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.3	14.2	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-4.1	-4.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -88,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	76.5	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	70.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-88,495	107,292	-18,797
– Gross Longs:	100,027	1,327,988	33,520
– Gross Shorts:	188,522	1,220,696	52,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	72.7	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-8.4	-20.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -890,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -853,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	82.4	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	57.9	4.7
– Net Position:	-890,202	800,371	89,831
– Gross Longs:	270,465	2,690,719	244,689
– Gross Shorts:	1,160,667	1,890,348	154,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.2	40.2	25.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -934,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -923,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	82.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	64.7	6.8
– Net Position:	-934,069	882,607	51,462
– Gross Longs:	423,353	4,186,028	396,832
– Gross Shorts:	1,357,422	3,303,421	345,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	16.6	3.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -771,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -79,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -692,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	63.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-771,638	682,402	89,236
– Gross Longs:	480,032	3,797,760	454,534
– Gross Shorts:	1,251,670	3,115,358	365,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	94.9	92.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	6.5	15.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -158,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,427 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	76.0	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	62.5	15.2
– Net Position:	-158,079	234,828	-76,749
– Gross Longs:	174,270	1,319,934	186,701
– Gross Shorts:	332,349	1,085,106	263,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	84.5	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-9.8	4.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -43,236 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	74.4	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	74.1	11.8
– Net Position:	-43,236	3,696	39,540
– Gross Longs:	112,271	966,329	192,516
– Gross Shorts:	155,507	962,633	152,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	11.9	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-23.5	-17.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -409,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -388,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	80.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	57.9	8.4
– Net Position:	-409,108	350,435	58,673
– Gross Longs:	84,063	1,239,774	187,318
– Gross Shorts:	493,171	889,339	128,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	76.0	98.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	0.9	8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

27 May

Metals Speculators boost Copper & Platinum bets, trim Gold bullish positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,799 contracts) with Platinum (1,656 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,082 contracts), Silver (-1,857 contracts), Steel (-891 contracts) and Palladium (-373 contracts).

Highlights of this week’s positions:

The largest mover of the week this week was the Gold speculative position. The large speculative position of Gold futures fell by over -19,000 contracts this week following a decline by -16,000 contracts last week. These declines have not taken much off the overall net position that has been trending higher since late in 2022 and recently reaching an approximate 1-year high of +195,814 contracts on May 9th. Gold prices have been strong lately as well with Gold futures prices reaching their highest levels since 2020 at over $2,000 in early May.

Copper speculator bets rebounded a bit this week after dropping for four weeks in a row and for six out of the past seven weeks. Copper positions have been dented by less than expected economic activity out of China and last week the Copper speculator positions dropped to the most bearish level in the past 165-weeks. Copper prices have also been on the downtrend since last year and have fallen approximately 25 percent from the highs of March 2022.

The Platinum speculative position continues to increase higher and has risen in six out of the past nine weeks. Platinum fundamentals have been boosted with car manufacturers starting to use more Platinum in their products, especially in electric vehicles. The futures price fell this week but has been in an uptrend since bottoming in September and recently touched its highest level in over a year at $1148.90 in late-April.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	479,080	26	160,732	48	-187,023	52	26,291	46
Silver	135,740	21	21,958	50	-34,972	52	13,014	39
Copper	215,394	55	-29,808	2	27,496	97	2,312	33
Palladium	11,138	71	-5,289	17	5,669	85	-380	19
Platinum	73,079	82	27,479	79	-32,157	27	4,678	31

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (79 percent) and Steel (58 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (2 percent) and Palladium (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (47.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (56.2 percent)
Silver (49.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.2 percent)
Copper (2.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (79.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (75.2 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (20.1 percent)
Steel (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.4 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (33 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.8 percent)
Silver (-2.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.6 percent)
Copper (-22.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-26.3 percent)
Platinum (32.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (24.0 percent)
Palladium (16.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.0 percent)
Steel (-0.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 160,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	29.8	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	68.9	4.8
– Net Position:	160,732	-187,023	26,291
– Gross Longs:	236,149	142,984	49,327
– Gross Shorts:	75,417	330,007	23,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	51.7	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	11.4	6.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	31.1	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	56.8	9.3
– Net Position:	21,958	-34,972	13,014
– Gross Longs:	56,686	42,194	25,655
– Gross Shorts:	34,728	77,166	12,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	51.5	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.6	2.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	47.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	34.2	7.3
– Net Position:	-29,808	27,496	2,312
– Gross Longs:	61,463	101,169	17,941
– Gross Shorts:	91,271	73,673	15,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	96.7	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.6	24.4	-20.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 27,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.4	27.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	71.0	3.6
– Net Position:	27,479	-32,157	4,678
– Gross Longs:	41,246	19,698	7,306
– Gross Shorts:	13,767	51,855	2,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	27.0	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.6	-28.2	-6.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,916 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	66.4	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.9	15.5	15.8
– Net Position:	-5,289	5,669	-380
– Gross Longs:	1,720	7,400	1,379
– Gross Shorts:	7,009	1,731	1,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	84.7	18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-15.3	2.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.6	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	63.5	1.2
– Net Position:	-5,311	5,467	-156
– Gross Longs:	2,112	23,604	191
– Gross Shorts:	7,423	18,137	347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	1.5	-40.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

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