COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 56

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso positions to 165-week high as peso cruises

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (12,322 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (7,833 contracts), the Japanese Yen (7,309 contracts), EuroFX (5,933 contracts), British Pound (3,463 contracts) and Bitcoin (255 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,183 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (-2,664 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,468 contracts), Brazilian Real (-867 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-194 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso positions hit 165-week high as peso cruises higher

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued rise in the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators boosted their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the second straight week and for the fourth time out of the past six weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +101,284 contracts over the past nine weeks, going from a net position of -31,252 contracts on March 7th to this week’s total net position of +70,032 contracts. This boost in speculator sentiment has brought the current net position to the highest level in 165 weeks, dating back to the height of the pandemic in March of 2020.

Helping the peso positioning has been the rising interest rates in Mexico that recently reached the 11.25 percent level at the latest central bank meeting in March. There is speculation of another 25 basis point increase in May as well. This has given Mexico a rising interest rate differential with the US central bank that is seen as mostly likely holding its key interest rate in June with an 84 percent probability, according to the CME Fed Tool.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been in a sharp uptrend to start 2023. The MXN futures (front month) price closed this week at 0.5642 compared to the 2023 opening price around the 0.5070 exchange rate. The MXN futures have gained in six out of the past eight weeks and, this week, reached its highest level since September 2017.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,175	28	11,156	44	-12,626	56	1,470	33
EUR	794,721	90	179,422	88	-234,260	11	54,838	66
GBP	242,576	63	4,528	73	-11,528	26	7,000	72
JPY	192,574	42	-61,015	31	69,162	69	-8,147	37
CHF	43,389	47	-4,467	43	4,759	53	-292	57
CAD	159,364	37	-42,263	15	41,957	85	306	23
AUD	165,532	62	-49,193	39	56,897	61	-7,704	34
NZD	41,583	39	-4,581	41	4,283	57	298	54
MXN	255,441	57	70,032	100	-76,533	0	6,501	96
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	49,208	38	34,594	80	-36,504	20	1,910	59
Bitcoin	13,102	56	423	84	-1,131	0	708	29

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), Brazilian Real (80 percent) and the British Pound (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (31 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (41 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.9 percent)
EuroFX (87.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (72.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (42.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (46.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (39.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (41.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (79.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (80.9 percent)
Bitcoin (84.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (79.9 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (25 percent) and the Mexican Peso (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (14 percent), the Brazilian Real (14 percent) and the EuroFX (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-13 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-4 percent), US Dollar Index (-3 percent) and the Swiss Franc (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.7 percent)
EuroFX (13.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (11.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (24.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (18.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-1.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (18.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.5 percent)
Bitcoin (12.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (13.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -194 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.3	12.1	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	51.4	10.7
– Net Position:	11,156	-12,626	1,470
– Gross Longs:	21,656	3,902	4,923
– Gross Shorts:	10,500	16,528	3,453
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	55.7	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	3.9	-9.8

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 179,422 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.6	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	82.1	5.2
– Net Position:	179,422	-234,260	54,838
– Gross Longs:	260,335	418,410	96,515
– Gross Shorts:	80,913	652,670	41,677
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.5	11.4	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.3	-14.5	13.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	52.3	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.6	57.1	9.9
– Net Position:	4,528	-11,528	7,000
– Gross Longs:	71,561	126,935	31,057
– Gross Shorts:	67,033	138,463	24,057
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	26.3	71.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-23.2	10.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -61,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,309 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	71.7	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	35.7	19.4
– Net Position:	-61,015	69,162	-8,147
– Gross Longs:	22,229	137,992	29,150
– Gross Shorts:	83,244	68,830	37,297
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	69.4	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	5.7	-9.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,467 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	44.8	33.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	33.8	34.5
– Net Position:	-4,467	4,759	-292
– Gross Longs:	7,056	19,431	14,657
– Gross Shorts:	11,523	14,672	14,949
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	52.8	56.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-9.9	14.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	59.4	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	33.1	19.4
– Net Position:	-42,263	41,957	306
– Gross Longs:	29,609	94,662	31,226
– Gross Shorts:	71,872	52,705	30,920
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.1	84.7	23.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.6	-14.6	15.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	59.6	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.6	25.3	16.4
– Net Position:	-49,193	56,897	-7,704
– Gross Longs:	41,225	98,698	19,371
– Gross Shorts:	90,418	41,801	27,075
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	61.3	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.8	8.3	6.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,664 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,917 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.0	48.6	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.0	38.3	8.1
– Net Position:	-4,581	4,283	298
– Gross Longs:	17,461	20,224	3,681
– Gross Shorts:	22,042	15,941	3,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.2	56.6	53.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.4	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 70,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.0	46.2	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	76.1	0.9
– Net Position:	70,032	-76,533	6,501
– Gross Longs:	127,763	117,890	8,859
– Gross Shorts:	57,731	194,423	2,358
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.5	-16.0	11.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	14.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.3	88.6	3.9
– Net Position:	34,594	-36,504	1,910
– Gross Longs:	38,196	7,097	3,841
– Gross Shorts:	3,602	43,601	1,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	19.8	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.1	-7.4	-40.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 255 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	1.8	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.3	10.4	4.8
– Net Position:	423	-1,131	708
– Gross Longs:	10,027	233	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,604	1,364	626
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	8.7	29.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.2	-38.3	3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 May

Copper Speculator bets slide to 32-week low as prices touch lowest since November

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (1,397 contracts) with Palladium (797 contracts), Silver (408 contracts) and Gold (247 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-3,123 contracts) and Steel (-314 contracts).

Copper bets slide to 32-week low as prices touch lowest since November

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the recent bearishness for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures decreased for the third straight week this week and has now dropped in five out of the past six weeks. The slide in Copper bets has taken the current net contracts standing down to a total of -24,865 contracts. This marks the most bearish level for speculators in the past 32-weeks, dating back to last September 27th.

Overall, the Copper speculator position has now been in a bearish level for eleven out of the past thirteen weeks.

Denting the sentiment for the red metal has been the weaker than expected data out of China (including imports & inflation), which is the largest importer of Copper in the world.

The Copper front-month futures price (US Comex futures) has been on downtrend since hitting a most recent high of $4.25 per pound in January. This week saw the price fall for a fourth straight week and close at approximately 3.73 per pound while also touching the lowest price since November. Overall, the Copper price is down about 25 percent from the post-2020 high of $4.6255 per pound that was reached in March of 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	518,951	45	195,814	63	-222,515	38	26,701	47
Silver	145,445	32	32,360	64	-46,190	38	13,830	43
Copper	194,243	38	-24,865	6	19,732	90	5,133	51
Palladium	13,295	100	-5,647	13	5,965	87	-318	23
Platinum	74,125	86	28,084	80	-32,484	26	4,400	27

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (80 percent) and Silver (64 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (63.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.1 percent)
Silver (64.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (63.8 percent)
Copper (6.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (9.0 percent)
Platinum (80.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (77.2 percent)
Palladium (13.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (6.0 percent)
Steel (61.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.8 percent)

Platinum & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (41 percent) and Silver (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (16.3 percent)
Silver (27.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (40.7 percent)
Copper (-20.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.4 percent)
Platinum (40.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (39.6 percent)
Palladium (10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.3 percent)
Steel (3.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 195,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,567 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	25.2	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	68.1	4.9
– Net Position:	195,814	-222,515	26,701
– Gross Longs:	266,472	130,985	52,012
– Gross Shorts:	70,658	353,500	25,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.3	38.0	46.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.1	17.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 32,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,952 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.6	28.6	17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	60.4	8.0
– Net Position:	32,360	-46,190	13,830
– Gross Longs:	69,166	41,636	25,474
– Gross Shorts:	36,806	87,826	11,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.4	37.9	43.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-29.4	29.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,865 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	48.0	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	37.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-24,865	19,732	5,133
– Gross Longs:	55,131	93,211	18,255
– Gross Shorts:	79,996	73,479	13,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.2	90.2	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.9	20.9	-8.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 28,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,687 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	27.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	71.4	4.2
– Net Position:	28,084	-32,484	4,400
– Gross Longs:	41,712	20,408	7,535
– Gross Shorts:	13,628	52,892	3,135
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	26.3	27.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	40.9	-36.6	-0.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	62.2	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.5	17.3	11.5
– Net Position:	-5,647	5,965	-318
– Gross Longs:	1,733	8,269	1,211
– Gross Shorts:	7,380	2,304	1,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	87.2	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.3	-10.3	6.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,896 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.2	77.1	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	61.9	0.9
– Net Position:	-3,896	3,922	-26
– Gross Longs:	3,161	19,929	214
– Gross Shorts:	7,057	16,007	240
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	38.4	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-2.9	-45.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

13 May

COT Speculator Extremes: Peso, 2-Year, 5-Year & SP500 lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 15.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 70,032 net contracts this week with a boost of 12,322 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 1.0 this week. The speculator position registered 62,029 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 4,078 contracts in speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level resides at a 99.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 5.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,101 net contracts this week with a change of -82 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 88.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 276,610 net contracts this week with a gain of 9,263 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 37.2 this week.

The speculator position was 97,837 net contracts this week with a decline of -6,949 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -910,642 net contracts this week with a edge lower by -412 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The S&P500 speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.7 this week. The speculator position was -376,023 net contracts this week with a drop of -20,612 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -749,885 net contracts this week with a sharp decline of -116,409 contracts in the speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.6 this week. The speculator position was -26,075 net contracts this week with a decrease of -6,381 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.2 this week. The speculator position was -211,598 net contracts this week with a change of 6,690 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

13 May

What is the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)?

Bonds Speculators drop 2-Year & 5-Year bets to record lows

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (172,071 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (17,449 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (16,285 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6,690 contracts) and the Eurodollar (257 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-116,409 contracts), the Fed Funds (-35,180 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-412 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-1,713 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop 2-Year and 5-Year Bonds bets to record lows

Highlighting the COT bonds data is this week’s record bearish speculator positioning in both the 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply added to their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the third time in the past four weeks. Speculators have now added a total of -253,044 contracts to the bearish position over the past four weeks alone. This weakness in sentiment has pushed the overall bearish standing to the highest level on record at a total of -749,885 contracts, according to CFTC data that goes back to 1990. This record bearish position surpassed the previous one that was recently registered on February 14th at a total of -696,686 contracts.

The 5-Year Bond speculator positions have also dropped their bets to a record low position this week and have done so for three straight weeks in succession. The 5-Year speculators have added a whopping -353,430 contracts to their net positions over the past eight weeks. This week’s record bearish position is at a total of -910,642 contracts which is the all-time low dating back to 1988, according to the CFTC.

Despite these all-time lows in both the 2-Year and 5-Years positions, their respective futures prices have not followed lower. The 2-Year futures price closed this week at 103.05 and is almost 2 percent higher than the low that was reached in early March at 101.09. Meanwhile, the 5-Year futures price closed at 110.01 this week and is approximately 4.35 percent higher than the low that was hit in October at 105.14. Overall in the longer view, the 5-Year price is down by approximately 13 percent from the highs of 2021 while the 2-Year prices are down by about 6.5 percent from 2021.

The outlook for both of these bonds will depend very much on the path forward for the benchmark interest rate controlled by the US Federal Reserve and how the economy evolves. The latest forecast for the next Fed meeting shows a high likelihood of an interest rate pause (almost 85 percent per the CME Fed tool). This pause would be a positive for bond prices while if an economic recession does take place, bond prices would likely be a place for safe haven investments. A recession could also prompt a Fed interest rate cut (bond price positive). However, further upside in inflation and followed by more Fed hikes would be a negative for bonds. The US debt ceiling is also an outlier risk event coming up that needs to be kept in mind as well.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-09-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	632,242	0	-55,110	73	58,414	23	-3,304	99
FedFunds	1,502,281	47	-75,317	30	104,070	73	-28,753	35
2-Year	3,007,292	100	-749,885	0	681,291	100	68,594	89
Long T-Bond	1,189,414	54	-73,129	61	2,355	11	70,774	100
10-Year	4,510,018	100	-731,698	2	641,595	90	90,103	100
5-Year	5,086,319	100	-910,642	0	872,302	99	38,340	92

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (73 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (61 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (58 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (2 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (30.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (34.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (13.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (1.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (1.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (60.8 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (55.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (18.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
Eurodollar (72.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (57.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.9 percent)

Eurodollar & Fed Funds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (15 percent) and the Fed Funds (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (9 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (6 percent) are the next positive movers in the latest trends data.

The SOFR 3-Months (-33 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-28 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-27 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (11.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-1.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-26.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-20.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-22.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-27.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (-28.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-19.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (5.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (3.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (9.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.2 percent)
Eurodollar (14.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-32.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-43.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 257 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,367 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.9	63.2	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.6	53.9	11.1
– Net Position:	-55,110	58,414	-3,304
– Gross Longs:	157,203	399,297	66,638
– Gross Shorts:	212,313	340,883	69,942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	23.1	98.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-18.0	38.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -452,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 172,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -624,899 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.3	62.7	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.9	58.1	0.5
– Net Position:	-452,828	457,566	-4,738
– Gross Longs:	1,408,633	6,178,976	42,103
– Gross Shorts:	1,861,461	5,721,410	46,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.5	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.9	32.8	0.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -75,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -35,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,137 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.0	78.4	2.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.0	71.5	4.2
– Net Position:	-75,317	104,070	-28,753
– Gross Longs:	59,367	1,178,447	34,793
– Gross Shorts:	134,684	1,074,377	63,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	72.5	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.5	-8.5	-45.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -749,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -116,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -633,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	82.8	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.8	60.2	5.1
– Net Position:	-749,885	681,291	68,594
– Gross Longs:	266,070	2,490,414	221,650
– Gross Shorts:	1,015,955	1,809,123	153,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	24.3	22.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -910,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -412 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -910,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.5 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.4	81.5	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	64.4	6.3
– Net Position:	-910,642	872,302	38,340
– Gross Longs:	477,767	4,146,935	361,166
– Gross Shorts:	1,388,409	3,274,633	322,826
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.1	91.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.7	25.4	-4.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -731,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -749,147 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	78.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.3	63.9	7.4
– Net Position:	-731,698	641,595	90,103
– Gross Longs:	453,077	3,522,275	425,427
– Gross Shorts:	1,184,775	2,880,680	335,324
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.9	90.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.0	22.5	12.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -211,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -218,288 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	79.2	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	62.2	14.4
– Net Position:	-211,598	283,856	-72,258
– Gross Longs:	154,358	1,326,293	169,295
– Gross Shorts:	365,956	1,042,437	241,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.4	95.0	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.2	11.1	4.9

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -73,129 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	76.8	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	76.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-73,129	2,355	70,774
– Gross Longs:	76,938	913,035	182,961
– Gross Shorts:	150,067	910,680	112,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	11.4	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.9	0.8

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -400,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -398,806 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	81.3	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	58.0	8.1
– Net Position:	-400,519	340,881	59,638
– Gross Longs:	89,706	1,188,568	178,139
– Gross Shorts:	490,225	847,687	118,501
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.5	71.9	99.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-11.7	1.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

29 Apr

Euro Currency Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as nine out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (5,039 contracts), British Pound (4,537 contracts), Brazilian Real (3,223 contracts), the Australian Dollar (2,894 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,442 contracts), the US Dollar Index (226 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,064 contracts), Bitcoin (196 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (652 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-11,875 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-2,043 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators boost their bullish bets to 133-week high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency. Euro speculator bets turned from bearish to bullish on September 20th of 2022 and have steadily increased in positive sentiment. The Euro positions have now been above the +100,000 contract threshold for 26 straight weeks, the best streak since 2021.

This week, the large speculative Euro positions went higher for a third consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now increased by a total of +29,444 contracts over these past six weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the overall bullish standing to the highest level in 133-weeks, dating back to October 6th of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar has also been on the rise and this week hit it’s highest level since March of 2022 above the 1.11 exchange level. Since late-February, the Euro has had higher weekly closes in seven out of the past nine weeks and is now higher by over 15 percent since it’s multi-decade low of 0.9592 in September.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	34,441	33	10,739	43	-12,711	56	1,972	38
EUR	772,882	83	169,400	84	-224,437	15	55,037	67
GBP	231,666	56	5,839	74	-10,530	27	4,691	67
JPY	184,041	37	-68,744	27	72,625	71	-3,881	46
CHF	41,736	41	-3,656	45	2,701	49	955	61
CAD	151,786	31	-43,791	14	45,878	87	-2,087	18
AUD	178,757	72	-39,462	48	53,746	59	-14,284	18
NZD	36,603	25	-3,252	45	3,928	56	-676	44
MXN	267,276	61	54,128	90	-58,607	11	4,479	84
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	78,748	78	16,819	57	-16,343	45	-476	40
Bitcoin	14,064	64	-293	72	-296	0	589	26

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and the EuroFX (84 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (74 percent), Bitcoin (72 percent) and the Brazilian Real (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (27 percent), the US Dollar Index (43 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (42.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (42.5 percent)
EuroFX (83.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (74.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (70.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (26.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (33.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (11.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (44.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (91.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (53.1 percent)
Bitcoin (71.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.4 percent)

British Pound & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (11 percent), the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent), Mexican Peso (-9 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-5.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (11.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (19.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-2.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-16.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-25.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (-9.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-14.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-21.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-9.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 10,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,513 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	70.1	10.0	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.9	46.9	9.4
– Net Position:	10,739	-12,711	1,972
– Gross Longs:	24,149	3,432	5,219
– Gross Shorts:	13,410	16,143	3,247
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.8	55.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	6.8	-13.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 169,400 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 164,361 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.5	54.2	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.6	83.2	5.1
– Net Position:	169,400	-224,437	55,037
– Gross Longs:	243,516	418,842	94,777
– Gross Shorts:	74,116	643,279	39,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.7	14.7	66.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-12.7	13.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,302 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.6	55.0	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	59.5	11.5
– Net Position:	5,839	-10,530	4,691
– Gross Longs:	59,405	127,306	31,336
– Gross Shorts:	53,566	137,836	26,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	26.9	67.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-24.6	25.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	73.5	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.8	34.1	18.6
– Net Position:	-68,744	72,625	-3,881
– Gross Longs:	13,680	135,330	30,358
– Gross Shorts:	82,424	62,705	34,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.5	71.1	45.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-6.5	14.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	44.0	36.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	37.6	34.2
– Net Position:	-3,656	2,701	955
– Gross Longs:	6,556	18,374	15,210
– Gross Shorts:	10,212	15,673	14,255
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	49.4	60.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.7	-17.5	14.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -43,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,442 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	61.8	19.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.9	31.6	21.1
– Net Position:	-43,791	45,878	-2,087
– Gross Longs:	24,295	93,784	29,997
– Gross Shorts:	68,086	47,906	32,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	87.4	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	6.5	5.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -39,462 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,894 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,356 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	55.3	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	25.3	18.6
– Net Position:	-39,462	53,746	-14,284
– Gross Longs:	54,241	98,900	18,987
– Gross Shorts:	93,703	45,154	33,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	59.0	17.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	0.5	-3.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.7	52.8	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.6	42.1	11.3
– Net Position:	-3,252	3,928	-676
– Gross Longs:	13,070	19,334	3,465
– Gross Shorts:	16,322	15,406	4,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.8	55.7	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-3.4	-0.5

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 54,128 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	47.2	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.5	69.1	1.1
– Net Position:	54,128	-58,607	4,479
– Gross Longs:	133,098	126,071	7,451
– Gross Shorts:	78,970	184,678	2,972
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.6	11.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	7.6	8.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 16,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.4	44.4	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	65.2	5.6
– Net Position:	16,819	-16,343	-476
– Gross Longs:	39,668	34,986	3,942
– Gross Shorts:	22,849	51,329	4,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	44.6	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.0	-31.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	2.9	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.1	5.0	5.5
– Net Position:	-293	-296	589
– Gross Longs:	9,566	410	1,364
– Gross Shorts:	9,859	706	775
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.8	45.9	26.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.3	-0.6	4.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

29 Apr

Metals Speculators raise Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (5,298 contracts) with Silver (4,008 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-25,976 contracts), Gold (-4,629 contracts), Steel (-785 contracts) and Palladium (-240 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators increase Platinum bullish bets to 20-week high

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the rise in bullish bets for the Platinum speculative positions. The large speculator position in Platinum futures rose by over +5,000 contracts this week and are higher for the fourth time in the past five weeks as well as higher in six out of the past nine weeks.

A total of +20,091 contracts have been added to the net speculator position over the past five-week period, bringing the current standing to the most bullish level in twenty weeks, dating back to January 10th. Overall, the Platinum positioning has now been in bullish territory for thirty-two straight weeks.

The Platinum futures price recently hit its highest level in over a year with a high of $1102.00 on April 23rd. This marked the best level since March 9th of 2022 when prices reached all the way to $1197.00.

This week, however, Platinum gave back some of its gains and prices fell for the first time in the past five weeks and closed at the $1090.10 threshold. Despite this week’s decline, Platinum overall has risen by over twenty percent since it’s most recent low of $904 in February.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	473,209	24	185,264	59	-211,928	42	26,664	47
Silver	149,692	37	30,603	62	-41,523	44	10,920	27
Copper	202,422	44	-17,042	13	8,304	80	8,738	74
Palladium	12,270	88	-5,877	11	6,309	90	-432	16
Platinum	72,125	79	29,617	84	-34,316	23	4,699	31

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

On the downside, Palladium (11 percent) and Copper (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (58.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (60.6 percent)
Silver (61.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (56.2 percent)
Copper (13.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (36.4 percent)
Platinum (83.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.7 percent)
Palladium (11.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (57.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.3 percent)

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (45 percent) and Platinum (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Steel (-2 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (19.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.2 percent)
Silver (45.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (49.1 percent)
Copper (-2.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (14.9 percent)
Platinum (44.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.3 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.5 percent)
Steel (-2.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 185,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 189,893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	26.3	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	71.1	5.2
– Net Position:	185,264	-211,928	26,664
– Gross Longs:	253,186	124,518	51,048
– Gross Shorts:	67,922	336,446	24,384
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.6	42.1	46.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-21.8	29.0

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 30,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,008 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.2	30.7	16.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.7	58.4	8.9
– Net Position:	30,603	-41,523	10,920
– Gross Longs:	66,145	45,907	24,230
– Gross Shorts:	35,542	87,430	13,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.9	43.6	27.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.4	-39.1	2.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -25,976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,934 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	45.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	41.5	6.1
– Net Position:	-17,042	8,304	8,738
– Gross Longs:	57,224	92,294	21,052
– Gross Shorts:	74,266	83,990	12,314
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	80.5	73.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.6	1.0	10.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,617 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,319 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.2	25.4	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	73.0	4.0
– Net Position:	29,617	-34,316	4,699
– Gross Longs:	41,240	18,302	7,597
– Gross Shorts:	11,623	52,618	2,898
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	22.5	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.0	-41.3	12.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	68.1	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.5	16.7	12.9
– Net Position:	-5,877	6,309	-432
– Gross Longs:	1,428	8,361	1,152
– Gross Shorts:	7,305	2,052	1,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.3	90.1	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.5	-5.7	5.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,564 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.9	77.9	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	59.7	0.6
– Net Position:	-5,564	5,499	65
– Gross Longs:	3,595	23,482	244
– Gross Shorts:	9,159	17,983	179
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.0	43.0	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	3.5	-58.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

29 Apr

Bonds Speculators push their 5-Year Bond bets to most bearish on record

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the 2-Year Bonds (28,607 contracts) with the Fed Funds (28,111 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (19,560 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15,667 contracts), the Eurodollar (8,395 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (1,016 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 5-Year Bonds (-114,786 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-89,967 contracts) and the 10-Year Bonds (-60,180 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Speculators push their 5-Year Bond bets to most bearish on record

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the historic weakness in the 5-Year Bonds speculator net contracts. Large speculative 5-Year Bond positions dropped sharply this week by over -114,000 net contracts, marking the largest decline in 20 weeks and have now decreased in four out of the past six weeks. The 5-Year net positions have fallen by a total of -312,076 contracts over the past six-week period, going from a total of -557,212 contracts on March 14th to a total net position of -869,288 contracts this week.

This bearishness has pushed the net position to the most bearish level in history, according to CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The previous record bearish position was a total of -867,556 contracts that took place on August 7th of 2018 and coincided with an almost exact bottom in the 5-Year Bond futures price (see image below comparing the price on dates of record bearish levels).

The 5-Year Bond futures price has not followed along lately with the extreme bearishness of the speculators in this case and has potentially already bottomed with a low of 105.14 in October and a more recent dip to 106.02 in March. The 5-Year futures closed this week higher near the 109.24 level and about 3.25 percent higher than the most recent low in March. In terms of bond yields, the 5-Year yield is currently trading at the 3.48 percent level and also down from a recent high of 4.37 percent in March. Only time will tell if the 5-Year Bond price has bottomed (and yields have topped out) with the future paths of the US Federal Reserve and the US economy likely weighing heavily on the future direction.

Chart by TradingView

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	604,722	0	-42,836	73	52,682	23	-9,846	97
FedFunds	1,909,067	81	-90,608	28	103,006	72	-12,398	67
2-Year	2,719,441	85	-546,307	19	486,757	76	59,550	84
Long T-Bond	1,193,358	55	-97,368	53	26,698	20	70,670	100
10-Year	4,362,222	90	-740,261	0	685,216	95	55,045	97
5-Year	4,576,091	100	-869,288	0	837,209	100	32,079	90

Strength Scores led by Eurodollar & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Eurodollar (73 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (53 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 3-Months (36 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (25.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (19.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (15.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (52.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (46.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (19.1 percent)
Eurodollar (72.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (36.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.8 percent)

Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (19 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 5-Year Bond (-32.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the SOFR 3-Months (-31 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-25 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-0.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (15.2 percent)
2-Year Bond (-1.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (5.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-32.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-10.2 percent)
10-Year Bond (-25.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-13.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (17.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (19.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.3 percent)
Eurodollar (15.9 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (23.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-31.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -42,836 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	62.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	53.5	11.2
– Net Position:	-42,836	52,682	-9,846
– Gross Longs:	162,210	375,924	57,705
– Gross Shorts:	205,046	323,242	67,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	23.0	97.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-20.7	52.8

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -716,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -89,967 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -626,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.2	64.0	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	56.4	0.5
– Net Position:	-716,355	722,508	-6,153
– Gross Longs:	1,351,648	6,105,246	41,555
– Gross Shorts:	2,068,003	5,382,738	47,708
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	63.9	84.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.3	18.9	84.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -90,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 28,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,719 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.7	79.7	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	74.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-90,608	103,006	-12,398
– Gross Longs:	70,441	1,520,816	41,850
– Gross Shorts:	161,049	1,417,810	54,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	72.4	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-3.9	66.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -546,307 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,607 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -574,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	81.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	63.1	6.0
– Net Position:	-546,307	486,757	59,550
– Gross Longs:	265,711	2,203,465	221,675
– Gross Shorts:	812,018	1,716,708	162,125
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	75.8	84.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	-3.4	18.5

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -869,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -114,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -754,502 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.7	84.1	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.7	65.8	7.2
– Net Position:	-869,288	837,209	32,079
– Gross Longs:	307,640	3,846,432	359,672
– Gross Shorts:	1,176,928	3,009,223	327,593
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	89.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.3	27.5	16.4

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -740,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -60,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -680,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	79.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	63.7	7.9
– Net Position:	-740,261	685,216	55,045
– Gross Longs:	389,728	3,462,741	400,768
– Gross Shorts:	1,129,989	2,777,525	345,723
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	95.2	96.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.3	11.8	30.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -190,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -206,583 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	80.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	63.2	14.9
– Net Position:	-190,916	269,304	-78,388
– Gross Longs:	137,531	1,281,853	160,380
– Gross Shorts:	328,447	1,012,549	238,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	91.9	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	11.5	-32.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -97,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -116,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	77.9	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	75.7	8.8
– Net Position:	-97,368	26,698	70,670
– Gross Longs:	81,222	929,608	176,053
– Gross Shorts:	178,590	902,910	105,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.9	20.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-30.1	23.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -397,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,016 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -399,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	82.0	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	57.7	8.4
– Net Position:	-397,985	347,575	50,410
– Gross Longs:	83,053	1,171,201	170,666
– Gross Shorts:	481,038	823,626	120,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.6	76.7	90.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-23.2	2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

29 Apr

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & Nasdaq

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & Nasdaq-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,043 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (2,457 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-19,010 contracts), the VIX (-18,089 contracts), MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,041 contracts), DowJones-Mini (-1,276 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-16 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,265,794	20	-363,267	0	386,640	100	-23,373	22
Nikkei 225	12,374	6	-2,572	61	1,806	41	766	38
Nasdaq-Mini	247,654	39	5,130	78	3,469	29	-8,599	37
DowJones-Mini	99,217	62	-25,673	8	32,600	100	-6,927	10
VIX	370,163	75	-81,850	60	82,906	35	-1,056	90
Nikkei 225 Yen	44,218	29	5,466	51	15,711	54	-21,177	35

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Nikkei 225

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (78 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (61 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (60 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the S&P500-Mini (0 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (0.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (3.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (8.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (11.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (77.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (76.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (40.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (36.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (61.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (21.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (23.9 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (6.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for the stock markets this week.

The S&P500-Mini (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-29 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-14.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-1.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-40.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-22.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-14.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-30.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (6.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-1.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (4.8 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-29.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-14.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -81,850 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -18,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	54.2	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	31.8	7.1
– Net Position:	-81,850	82,906	-1,056
– Gross Longs:	72,595	200,747	25,269
– Gross Shorts:	154,445	117,841	26,325
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.6	35.5	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.9	12.0	19.1

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -363,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -344,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	77.1	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	60.1	11.6
– Net Position:	-363,267	386,640	-23,373
– Gross Longs:	207,333	1,747,428	240,239
– Gross Shorts:	570,600	1,360,788	263,612
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	22.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.6	30.1	8.6

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -25,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,397 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	63.8	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.9	30.9	18.4
– Net Position:	-25,673	32,600	-6,927
– Gross Longs:	22,829	63,281	11,297
– Gross Shorts:	48,502	30,681	18,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.1	100.0	10.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	12.3	-2.4

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 5,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,673 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	57.6	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.1	56.2	17.7
– Net Position:	5,130	3,469	-8,599
– Gross Longs:	64,807	142,707	35,188
– Gross Shorts:	59,677	139,238	43,787
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.9	28.6	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-19.4	37.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -52,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	83.3	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	72.1	5.0
– Net Position:	-52,119	57,566	-5,447
– Gross Longs:	59,738	428,832	20,133
– Gross Shorts:	111,857	371,266	25,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	62.8	9.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	4.6	-16.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,556 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	47.4	32.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	32.8	26.3
– Net Position:	-2,572	1,806	766
– Gross Longs:	2,485	5,867	4,022
– Gross Shorts:	5,057	4,061	3,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.3	41.2	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	3.0	-4.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,652 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	89.5	2.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	86.4	1.2
– Net Position:	-18,693	12,490	6,203
– Gross Longs:	28,394	359,980	11,143
– Gross Shorts:	47,087	347,490	4,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	74.1	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	41.6	-52.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Cocoa, 5-Year & 10-Year Bonds lead weekly Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 25th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week with the speculator level at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend change for the percent strength score totaled 37.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 61,714 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,359 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 99.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.6 this week. The speculator position registered -2,059 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 1,851 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 102,034 net contracts this week with a dip of -38 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Sugar

The Sugar speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 89.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 17.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 279,528 net contracts this week with a rise of 10,356 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 89.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week.

The net speculator position was 54,128 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,043 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week as the speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -869,288 net contracts with a sharp drop of -114,786 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -25.3 this week. The speculator position was -740,261 net contracts this week with a decrease of -60,180 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -27,022 net contracts this week with a nudge higher by 135 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing with a speculator level is at 3.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 0.3 this week. The speculator position was -190,916 net contracts this week with a gain of 15,667 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton

Finally, the Cotton speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.0 this week. The speculator position was -5,413 net contracts this week with a drop of -9,883 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

29 Apr

Speculators boost Cocoa bullish bets to highest since March 2020

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (10,356 contracts) with Cocoa (2,359 contracts) and Lean Hogs (135 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-80,988 contracts), Soybeans (-73,414 contracts), Wheat (-12,652 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,017 contracts), Cotton (-9,883 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,806 contracts), Coffee (-409 contracts) and Live Cattle (-38 contracts).

Cocoa bullish bets hit highest since March 2020

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the multi-year high in bullish bets of the Cocoa speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Cocoa rose this week for the first time in the past four weeks but the boost pushed the overall net position to its highest level since 2020. This week’s gain brought the Cocoa speculator net position to a total of +61,714 contracts which marks the most bullish level of the past 164 weeks, dating back to March 10th of 2020.

Cocoa trader sentiment and futures prices have been pushed higher recently due to increased demand and because of supply issues arising out of Africa. Nigeria’s exports as well as the Ivory Coast’s exports have been on the decline while dryer weather conditions have also hampered production on the continent. Meanwhile, the demand for Cocoa is being forecast to grow approximately 5 percent annually for the next decade.

The Cocoa futures price fell modestly this week but has been on a strong bullish trend since hitting a recent low in September. Last week, the futures price hit its highest level since 2016 right around the 2995 price before retreating this week to 2937.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-25-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,826,195	38	236,438	20	-271,197	79	34,759	53
Gold	473,209	24	185,264	59	-211,928	42	26,664	47
Silver	149,692	37	30,603	62	-41,523	44	10,920	27
Copper	202,422	44	-17,042	13	8,304	80	8,738	74
Palladium	12,270	88	-5,877	11	6,309	90	-432	16
Platinum	72,125	79	29,617	84	-34,316	23	4,699	31
Natural Gas	1,274,536	63	-136,150	18	105,774	82	30,376	52
Brent	140,321	6	-40,564	26	36,713	73	3,851	61
Heating Oil	268,225	23	7,593	40	-16,018	81	8,425	28
Soybeans	630,935	12	104,096	30	-76,491	70	-27,605	26
Corn	1,242,943	7	24,648	33	34,700	77	-59,348	18
Coffee	192,927	7	36,592	65	-37,705	38	1,113	26
Sugar	959,708	61	279,528	90	-335,640	7	56,112	76
Wheat	366,390	47	-83,188	0	75,369	100	7,819	100

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (90 percent), Soybean Meal (66 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and the Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (43.5 percent)
Sugar (89.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.1 percent)
Coffee (64.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (65.4 percent)
Soybeans (30.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (58.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (75.6 percent)
Live Cattle (92.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (0.0 percent)
Cotton (4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (12.1 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (97.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (9.7 percent)

Cocoa & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cocoa (38 percent) and Coffee (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (17 percent) and Live Cattle (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-24 percent), Lean Hogs (-19 percent) and Wheat (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (0.3 percent)
Sugar (17.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (10.1 percent)
Coffee (24.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (22.5 percent)
Soybeans (-25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-1.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-24.4 percent)
Live Cattle (7.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-7.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-17.5 percent)
Cotton (-2.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.1 percent)
Cocoa (37.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.9 percent)
Wheat (-13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -80,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 105,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.9	51.8	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	49.0	13.5
– Net Position:	24,648	34,700	-59,348
– Gross Longs:	297,251	644,207	109,017
– Gross Shorts:	272,603	609,507	168,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	76.8	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.1	3.4

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 279,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 10,356 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 269,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	39.5	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	74.5	4.8
– Net Position:	279,528	-335,640	56,112
– Gross Longs:	354,581	379,027	101,894
– Gross Shorts:	75,053	714,667	45,782
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	7.3	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-17.1	10.3

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,592 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,001 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	42.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	61.9	3.3
– Net Position:	36,592	-37,705	1,113
– Gross Longs:	58,266	81,704	7,412
– Gross Shorts:	21,674	119,409	6,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	38.4	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-24.6	5.1

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 104,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -73,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.4	49.0	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.9	61.1	11.5
– Net Position:	104,096	-76,491	-27,605
– Gross Longs:	160,083	309,256	45,031
– Gross Shorts:	55,987	385,747	72,636
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	70.4	25.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.1	18.7	16.5

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	59.8	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	55.4	6.8
– Net Position:	-18,257	20,425	-2,168
– Gross Longs:	73,661	280,735	29,738
– Gross Shorts:	91,918	260,310	31,906
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	11.6	-7.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 111,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,269 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.6	39.0	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.3	67.8	6.6
– Net Position:	111,252	-126,822	15,570
– Gross Longs:	139,164	171,929	44,665
– Gross Shorts:	27,912	298,751	29,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.7	36.4	16.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	25.9	-13.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 102,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -38 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,072 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.9	25.3	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	51.7	12.4
– Net Position:	102,034	-92,450	-9,584
– Gross Longs:	156,838	88,281	33,814
– Gross Shorts:	54,804	180,731	43,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	9.1	36.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-5.3	-12.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 135 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.6	37.3	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.5	26.9	10.9
– Net Position:	-27,022	23,686	3,336
– Gross Longs:	60,383	84,742	28,143
– Gross Shorts:	87,405	61,056	24,807
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	98.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	16.5	19.3

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -5,413 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	49.2	6.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	45.4	6.9
– Net Position:	-5,413	6,321	-908
– Gross Longs:	52,624	82,680	10,665
– Gross Shorts:	58,037	76,359	11,573
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	94.6	10.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	1.4	3.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 61,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.2	31.1	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.9	51.8	3.3
– Net Position:	61,714	-66,251	4,537
– Gross Longs:	135,292	99,730	15,048
– Gross Shorts:	73,578	165,981	10,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	37.7	-38.2	4.4

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,188 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	37.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.5	17.1	9.6
– Net Position:	-83,188	75,369	7,819
– Gross Longs:	101,941	137,977	43,119
– Gross Shorts:	185,129	62,608	35,300
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	9.3	26.0

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