COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (2,657 contracts) with Silver (2,302 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-382 contracts), Platinum (-280 contracts), Copper (-2,395 contracts) and Steel (-71 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	483,170	28	165,754	50	-187,749	51	21,995	35
Silver	120,282	6	20,292	47	-31,649	56	11,357	29
Copper	197,785	41	-11,157	21	7,915	78	3,242	39
Palladium	15,772	100	-8,272	0	8,765	100	-493	12
Platinum	71,007	72	7,787	34	-13,912	65	6,125	50

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (73 percent) and Gold (50 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (21 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Platinum (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (50.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (48.9 percent)
Silver (47.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (43.9 percent)
Copper (21.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (23.3 percent)
Platinum (33.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (34.2 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.2 percent)
Steel (72.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (72.8 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (21 percent) and Steel (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (-18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-36 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.0 percent)
Silver (-1.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.7 percent)
Copper (21.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.2 percent)
Platinum (-36.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-44.8 percent)
Palladium (-18.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-21.7 percent)
Steel (14.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (15.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 165,754 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.8	23.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	62.6	5.1
– Net Position:	165,754	-187,749	21,995
– Gross Longs:	240,546	114,790	46,618
– Gross Shorts:	74,792	302,539	24,623
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	51.5	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	0.9	3.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,302 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	31.8	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	58.1	9.9
– Net Position:	20,292	-31,649	11,357
– Gross Longs:	51,305	38,238	23,304
– Gross Shorts:	31,013	69,887	11,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	55.5	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	3.5	-11.5

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,395 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	43.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	39.7	7.1
– Net Position:	-11,157	7,915	3,242
– Gross Longs:	59,389	86,466	17,338
– Gross Shorts:	70,546	78,551	14,096
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	78.2	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-21.8	11.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,787 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -280 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	27.2	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.4	46.8	4.6
– Net Position:	7,787	-13,912	6,125
– Gross Longs:	38,590	19,294	9,369
– Gross Shorts:	30,803	33,206	3,244
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	64.7	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.0	29.1	20.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -8,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,890 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	62.3	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.1	6.8	12.8
– Net Position:	-8,272	8,765	-493
– Gross Longs:	3,575	9,831	1,519
– Gross Shorts:	11,847	1,066	2,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	9.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.5	17.4	-4.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -71 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.3	75.3	1.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	75.1	0.8
– Net Position:	-201	46	155
– Gross Longs:	4,124	17,946	347
– Gross Shorts:	4,325	17,900	192
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	27.1	40.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.8	-15.6	34.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

15 Jul

Stock Market Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & the VIX

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nasdaq-Mini & the VIX

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nasdaq-Mini (5,490 contracts) with the VIX (4,191 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (2,314 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (1,637 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were with DowJones-Mini (-5,503 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-1,318 contracts) and the S&P500-Mini (-1,740 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,209,607	21	-208,979	34	202,437	68	6,542	47
Nikkei 225	16,338	17	-3,871	44	1,916	48	1,955	53
Nasdaq-Mini	259,491	37	10,948	83	-8,013	18	-2,935	48
DowJones-Mini	97,782	60	-18,585	21	21,325	77	-2,740	31
VIX	403,072	74	-50,733	82	52,127	13	-1,394	89
Nikkei 225 Yen	53,828	43	11,836	71	12,920	46	-24,756	27

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (83 percent) and the VIX (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (71 percent) and Nikkei 225 (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the DowJones-Mini (21 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength score is the MSCI EAFE-Mini (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (82.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (33.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (21.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (36.9 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (83.5 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (80.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (32.4 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (43.8 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.7 percent)
EAFE-Mini (28.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (29.9 percent)

S&P500-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (20 percent), the VIX (9 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-2 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (8.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (7.1 percent)
S&P500-Mini (33.6 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (29.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (8.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (27.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (1.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-5.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-11.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (19.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-4.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (6.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (10.7 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -50,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.3	48.9	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	36.0	6.7
– Net Position:	-50,733	52,127	-1,394
– Gross Longs:	93,879	197,282	25,734
– Gross Shorts:	144,612	145,155	27,128
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.4	13.2	88.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.6	-9.6	7.5

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,740 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -207,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	76.2	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.6	67.0	11.0
– Net Position:	-208,979	202,437	6,542
– Gross Longs:	224,554	1,683,791	249,227
– Gross Shorts:	433,533	1,481,354	242,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.6	67.8	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.6	-32.2	2.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.7	63.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	41.2	15.0
– Net Position:	-18,585	21,325	-2,740
– Gross Longs:	23,205	61,658	11,959
– Gross Shorts:	41,790	40,333	14,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.3	77.1	30.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-2.1	-9.6

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 10,948 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,490 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	52.7	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	55.8	16.6
– Net Position:	10,948	-8,013	-2,935
– Gross Longs:	75,622	136,668	40,206
– Gross Shorts:	64,674	144,681	43,141
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	17.5	47.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	-8.4	19.5

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,637 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,510 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	83.8	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	71.3	4.5
– Net Position:	-65,873	65,463	410
– Gross Longs:	53,492	438,843	24,054
– Gross Shorts:	119,365	373,380	23,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.4	67.3	27.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-2.2	20.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -3,871 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	62.8	28.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.5	51.0	16.4
– Net Position:	-3,871	1,916	1,955
– Gross Longs:	1,445	10,254	4,639
– Gross Shorts:	5,316	8,338	2,684
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	47.5	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.7	-22.9	9.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	89.3	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	87.5	1.3
– Net Position:	-13,061	6,926	6,135
– Gross Longs:	27,415	345,863	11,243
– Gross Shorts:	40,476	338,937	5,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	67.4	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-7.9	4.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

15 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,004 contracts) with Natural Gas (12,020 contracts), Gasoline (7,393 contracts), Heating Oil (301 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (95 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil with a decrease of -8,158 contracts also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,796,348	36	173,433	9	-196,688	93	23,255	26
Gold	483,170	28	165,754	50	-187,749	51	21,995	35
Silver	120,282	6	20,292	47	-31,649	56	11,357	29
Copper	197,785	41	-11,157	21	7,915	78	3,242	39
Palladium	15,772	100	-8,272	0	8,765	100	-493	12
Platinum	71,007	72	7,787	34	-13,912	65	6,125	50
Natural Gas	1,236,802	56	-86,755	37	55,554	62	31,201	54
Brent	134,662	8	-48,031	18	46,617	87	1,414	28
Heating Oil	320,001	44	28,000	79	-47,728	31	19,728	67
Soybeans	622,509	11	90,863	25	-77,180	70	-13,683	68
Corn	1,241,940	7	7,811	23	35,215	81	-43,026	52
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	877,695	43	196,304	60	-226,030	41	29,726	41
Wheat	297,146	7	-40,411	38	45,506	65	-5,095	56

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) and Heating Oil (79.0 percent) lead the energy close to the top of their respective ranges. Gasoline (41.9 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength scores currently and are in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (34.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (32.6 percent)
Gasoline (41.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (29.7 percent)
Heating Oil (79.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (83.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (18.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent), Gasoline (9.5 percent) and Natural Gas (7.7 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (15.8 percent)
Natural Gas (7.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.4 percent)
Gasoline (9.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-2.1 percent)
Heating Oil (18.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (35.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 173,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 32,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	39.0	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	49.9	3.7
– Net Position:	173,433	-196,688	23,255
– Gross Longs:	339,297	700,019	89,390
– Gross Shorts:	165,864	896,707	66,135
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.5	93.0	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-0.9	-14.1

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	54.1	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.8	19.5	4.5
– Net Position:	-48,031	46,617	1,414
– Gross Longs:	13,704	72,834	7,524
– Gross Shorts:	61,735	26,217	6,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.7	87.4	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.5	-4.7	-40.2

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.4	39.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	34.7	3.2
– Net Position:	-86,755	55,554	31,201
– Gross Longs:	251,784	484,758	70,705
– Gross Shorts:	338,539	429,204	39,504
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.4	61.5	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.7	-7.8	0.0

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	44.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	62.5	4.3
– Net Position:	53,407	-62,164	8,757
– Gross Longs:	95,389	152,407	23,514
– Gross Shorts:	41,982	214,571	14,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	56.5	71.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-13.8	23.9

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,699 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.3	46.0	14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	60.9	8.5
– Net Position:	28,000	-47,728	19,728
– Gross Longs:	52,184	147,076	46,782
– Gross Shorts:	24,184	194,804	27,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	30.5	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.2	-39.5	52.4

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 95 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	86.6	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	76.7	0.2
– Net Position:	-5,651	5,508	143
– Gross Longs:	6,698	48,079	269
– Gross Shorts:	12,349	42,571	126
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.3	16.2	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.0	15.1	-0.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Energy Financial News

08 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 03 2023 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (17,049 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (3,041 contracts) and Heating Oil (3,599 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-5,975 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,666 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-350 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,816,043	37	141,429	1	-170,148	99	28,719	37
Gold	448,063	12	163,097	49	-184,717	53	21,620	34
Silver	114,421	0	17,990	44	-29,569	58	11,579	31
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	14,781	100	-7,890	0	8,358	100	-468	14
Platinum	69,383	70	8,067	34	-13,570	65	5,503	42
Natural Gas	1,241,419	57	-98,775	33	68,313	67	30,462	52
Brent	127,019	1	-39,873	34	38,114	70	1,759	33
Heating Oil	305,681	38	27,699	78	-41,810	40	14,111	47
Soybeans	610,352	8	90,973	25	-71,924	72	-19,049	55
Corn	1,246,983	8	46,403	28	524	76	-46,927	46
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	863,843	40	199,368	61	-229,713	39	30,345	42
Wheat	297,933	7	-45,464	34	51,053	70	-5,589	54

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Commodity Index and Heating Oil

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) and Heating Oil (78.4 percent) lead the energy near the top of their respective ranges.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a Bearish-Extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (34.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Natural Gas (32.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (35.0 percent)
Gasoline (29.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (32.5 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (71.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (85.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by Heating Oil

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (35.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week.

Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) and Gasoline (-2.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (15.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Natural Gas (5.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.4 percent)
Gasoline (-2.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.6 percent)
Heating Oil (35.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (27.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-13.9 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 141,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	40.6	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.7	50.0	3.2
– Net Position:	141,429	-170,148	28,719
– Gross Longs:	316,998	737,228	87,049
– Gross Shorts:	175,569	907,376	58,330
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.7	99.2	36.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	11.0	9.0

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	50.0	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.1	20.0	5.2
– Net Position:	-39,873	38,114	1,759
– Gross Longs:	14,882	63,542	8,338
– Gross Shorts:	54,755	25,428	6,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	70.0	33.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.8	-14.6	-11.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	39.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.5	34.1	3.1
– Net Position:	-98,775	68,313	30,462
– Gross Longs:	254,883	491,198	69,432
– Gross Shorts:	353,658	422,885	38,970
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.6	66.7	52.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.4	-5.1	-2.3

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	45.7	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	62.7	4.6
– Net Position:	46,014	-54,480	8,466
– Gross Longs:	86,285	146,031	23,246
– Gross Shorts:	40,271	200,511	14,780
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.7	67.8	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	-3.1	22.3

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	44.4	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.8	58.0	9.7
– Net Position:	27,699	-41,810	14,111
– Gross Longs:	54,613	135,611	43,667
– Gross Shorts:	26,914	177,421	29,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.4	39.9	47.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.1	-40.0	22.5

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	86.8	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	76.8	0.2
– Net Position:	-5,746	5,553	193
– Gross Longs:	6,514	48,124	294
– Gross Shorts:	12,260	42,571	101
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	16.4	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	15.3	0.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

All information and opinions on this website and in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News

08 Jul

Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (7,374 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,661 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,542 contracts) and Bitcoin (18 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,158 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-5,050 contracts), Mexican Peso (-1,109 contracts), the British Pound (-1,729 contracts), the EuroFX (-2,191 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-651 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the new bullish positioning in the Canadian dollar. Large speculative Canadian dollar positions rose this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks.

Speculators have now added +42,856 net contracts to the overall position in just the last four weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at +4,527 contracts) to the first bullish level of the past 41 weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2022.

The Canadian dollar’s futures price (versus the US dollar) has been in an uptrend since hitting a recent 2023-low in March of 2022 near 0.7223. The CAD front month futures price climbed back over the 200-day moving average in June and closed this week at the 0.7541 level. Helping the CAD go higher at the end of this week was the better than expected Canadian jobs report which could help propel the currency higher and continue on its current uptrend.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	26,619	7	14,317	49	-16,580	49	2,263	41
EUR	725,927	56	142,837	73	-189,459	26	46,622	53
GBP	221,021	50	50,265	99	-63,664	2	13,399	84
JPY	265,066	89	-117,920	0	126,010	97	-8,090	37
CHF	40,639	38	-3,404	46	7,565	57	-4,161	43
CAD	156,284	31	4,527	59	-18,815	43	14,288	55
AUD	153,744	44	-44,582	44	51,374	57	-6,792	36
NZD	34,057	18	830	56	1,511	50	-2,341	22
MXN	238,269	51	95,240	97	-99,399	2	4,159	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	66,547	62	31,104	75	-27,440	31	-3,664	15
Bitcoin	17,008	85	-2,076	41	1,132	0	944	34

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (99 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week and are in Extreme-Bullish levels. The Brazilian Real (75 percent), EuroFX (73 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (49.9 percent)
EuroFX (73.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (98.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (3.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (48.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.0 percent)
Bitcoin (40.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.4 percent)

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (49 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (11 percent), the US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-22 percent), EuroFX (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-16.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (29.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-28.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-6.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (49.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-51.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-54.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	2.2	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	64.5	8.3
– Net Position:	14,317	-16,580	2,263
– Gross Longs:	20,267	584	4,462
– Gross Shorts:	5,950	17,164	2,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	49.4	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-4.3	-4.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 142,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	55.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	81.4	6.1
– Net Position:	142,837	-189,459	46,622
– Gross Longs:	221,272	401,256	90,921
– Gross Shorts:	78,435	590,715	44,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	26.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	11.7	-6.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	33.7	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	62.5	10.5
– Net Position:	50,265	-63,664	13,399
– Gross Longs:	96,461	74,446	36,707
– Gross Shorts:	46,196	138,110	23,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	1.9	84.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.2	-28.7	16.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -117,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	71.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.2	24.2	14.5
– Net Position:	-117,920	126,010	-8,090
– Gross Longs:	41,713	190,157	30,449
– Gross Shorts:	159,633	64,147	38,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	16.4	7.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	45.9	27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	27.2	37.8
– Net Position:	-3,404	7,565	-4,161
– Gross Longs:	10,634	18,633	11,193
– Gross Shorts:	14,038	11,068	15,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	57.5	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	9.7	-11.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	47.0	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	59.0	13.7
– Net Position:	4,527	-18,815	14,288
– Gross Longs:	44,178	73,437	35,761
– Gross Shorts:	39,651	92,252	21,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	43.3	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.5	-46.2	33.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	53.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	20.0	16.3
– Net Position:	-44,582	51,374	-6,792
– Gross Longs:	50,170	82,076	18,331
– Gross Shorts:	94,752	30,702	25,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	57.2	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-6.5	10.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	53.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	48.9	13.9
– Net Position:	830	1,511	-2,341
– Gross Longs:	13,170	18,176	2,390
– Gross Shorts:	12,340	16,665	4,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	50.1	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	4.9	-38.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	44.1	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	85.9	1.9
– Net Position:	95,240	-99,399	4,159
– Gross Longs:	123,919	105,172	8,685
– Gross Shorts:	28,679	204,571	4,526
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	2.2	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-10.0	-9.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.1	35.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	76.5	13.1
– Net Position:	31,104	-27,440	-3,664
– Gross Longs:	38,012	23,461	5,070
– Gross Shorts:	6,908	50,901	8,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	30.9	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	11.4	-60.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	10.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.8	3.3	3.7
– Net Position:	-2,076	1,132	944
– Gross Longs:	12,854	1,698	1,568
– Gross Shorts:	14,930	566	624
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	100.0	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.8	91.6	13.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Jul

Speculator Extremes: GBP, MXN, 2-Year and Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 29.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 50,265 net contracts this week with a change of -1,729 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 11.2 this week. The speculator position registered 95,240 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -1,109 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 97.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 23.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 239,839 net contracts this week with a change of -44,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 94.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 7.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 72,584 net contracts this week with a change of 1,032 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.1 this week.

The speculator position was 105,443 net contracts this week with a change of 2,354 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -450,572 net contracts this week with a change of -26,881 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,058,426 net contracts this week with a change of -44,022 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -48.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -206,500 net contracts this week with a change of -18,761 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.1 this week. The speculator position was -117,920 net contracts this week with a change of -5,050 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.4 this week. The speculator position was -7,890 net contracts this week with a change of -566 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Opinions

08 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (11,187 contracts) with Steel (1,150 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-11,702 contracts), Palladium (-566 contracts), Platinum (-4,093 contracts) and Silver (-1,062 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	448,063	12	163,097	49	-184,717	53	21,620	34
Silver	114,421	0	17,990	44	-29,569	58	11,579	31
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	14,781	100	-7,890	0	8,358	100	-468	14
Platinum	69,383	70	8,067	34	-13,570	65	5,503	42

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent)comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (48.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (43.9 percent)
Silver (43.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (45.4 percent)
Copper (23.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (33.4 percent)
Platinum (34.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.6 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (72.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (69.5 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (23 percent) and Steel (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-12.3 percent)
Silver (-5.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.8 percent)
Copper (18.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (30.7 percent)
Platinum (-44.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-31.5 percent)
Palladium (-22.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.7 percent)
Steel (15.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (9.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	25.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	66.9	5.3
– Net Position:	163,097	-184,717	21,620
– Gross Longs:	235,081	114,905	45,490
– Gross Shorts:	71,984	299,622	23,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	52.6	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	0.9	-11.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	33.0	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	58.9	10.0
– Net Position:	17,990	-29,569	11,579
– Gross Longs:	46,433	37,784	23,020
– Gross Shorts:	28,443	67,353	11,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	58.1	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	6.5	-8.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	42.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	44.4	7.2
– Net Position:	1,888	-4,003	2,115
– Gross Longs:	64,740	86,761	16,759
– Gross Shorts:	62,852	90,764	14,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	68.3	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-19.7	-19.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	28.6	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	48.2	5.1
– Net Position:	8,067	-13,570	5,503
– Gross Longs:	36,443	19,856	9,026
– Gross Shorts:	28,376	33,426	3,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	65.4	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.8	38.4	11.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,324 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	63.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.0	6.6	13.1
– Net Position:	-7,890	8,358	-468
– Gross Longs:	3,342	9,330	1,463
– Gross Shorts:	11,232	972	1,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	9.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	21.0	-5.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	74.9	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	75.1	0.7
– Net Position:	-130	-28	158
– Gross Longs:	4,129	17,669	312
– Gross Shorts:	4,259	17,697	154
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	26.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-16.0	40.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

08 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with gains for the bond category was the 10-Year Bonds with a total rise of 20,321 contracts.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-44,151 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-44,022 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-31,326 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-24,681 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-26,881 contracts), the Fed Funds (-17,553 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,713 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	9,300,042	89	239,839	97	-233,436	2	-6,403	84
FedFunds	1,414,525	39	-106,758	34	115,921	66	-9,163	73
2-Year	3,667,737	100	-1,058,426	0	970,602	100	87,824	97
Long T-Bond	1,242,918	63	-139,929	39	106,742	49	33,187	73
10-Year	4,737,762	91	-780,678	7	719,909	96	60,769	87
5-Year	5,080,610	99	-1,029,814	0	1,026,687	100	3,127	82

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (97 percent). The US Treasury Bonds (39 percent) and the Fed Funds (34 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (97.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (24 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (-1 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-31 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-2.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-0.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-31.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (23.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (31.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 239,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -44,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	58.6	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	61.1	0.4
– Net Position:	239,839	-233,436	-6,403
– Gross Longs:	1,880,577	5,453,300	28,213
– Gross Shorts:	1,640,738	5,686,736	34,616
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.0	2.1	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-23.9	0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -106,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	72.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	63.8	3.1
– Net Position:	-106,758	115,921	-9,163
– Gross Longs:	91,610	1,018,379	35,112
– Gross Shorts:	198,368	902,458	44,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	66.3	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	1.4	18.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,058,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,014,404 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	81.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	54.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,058,426	970,602	87,824
– Gross Longs:	405,459	2,977,688	241,676
– Gross Shorts:	1,463,885	2,007,086	153,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	16.7	-0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,029,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -31,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -998,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	64.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-1,029,814	1,026,687	3,127
– Gross Longs:	348,230	4,297,985	373,393
– Gross Shorts:	1,378,044	3,271,298	370,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	100.0	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	13.0	-13.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -780,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -800,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	80.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	65.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-780,678	719,909	60,769
– Gross Longs:	434,456	3,798,675	418,993
– Gross Shorts:	1,215,134	3,078,766	358,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	95.9	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	4.0	-6.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	76.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	65.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-139,901	197,302	-57,401
– Gross Longs:	168,089	1,304,780	201,280
– Gross Shorts:	307,990	1,107,478	258,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	76.4	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-8.1	11.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.3	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	70.7	11.6
– Net Position:	-139,929	106,742	33,187
– Gross Longs:	70,648	985,219	177,299
– Gross Shorts:	210,577	878,477	144,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	48.7	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.5	36.7	-4.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -450,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -423,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.6	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	57.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-450,572	394,354	56,218
– Gross Longs:	69,955	1,272,590	174,627
– Gross Shorts:	520,527	878,236	118,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.2	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	23.2	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

08 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was VIX (9,797 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (5,840 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,241 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (1,011 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (61 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,784 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (-3,810 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,211,004	22	-207,239	34	205,791	68	1,448	45
Nikkei 225	16,359	17	-6,185	29	4,671	64	1,514	47
Nasdaq-Mini	248,698	29	5,458	80	-3,883	20	-1,575	50
DowJones-Mini	95,161	55	-13,082	37	14,236	63	-1,154	38
VIX	406,805	76	-54,924	79	58,022	17	-3,098	80
Nikkei 225 Yen	57,318	49	10,965	68	15,896	54	-26,861	20

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (80 percent) and the VIX (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (68 percent) and DowJones-Mini (37 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (33.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (36.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (20.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (80.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (31.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (29.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (27 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (11 percent) and the VIX (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (7.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-7.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-4.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-11.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (10.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -54,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	50.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	35.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-54,924	58,022	-3,098
– Gross Longs:	94,274	204,071	26,095
– Gross Shorts:	149,198	146,049	29,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	17.5	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-7.3	2.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -207,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	76.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	67.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-207,239	205,791	1,448
– Gross Longs:	223,358	1,688,344	245,999
– Gross Shorts:	430,597	1,482,553	244,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	68.3	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.4	-29.8	6.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -13,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	60.3	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	45.4	14.7
– Net Position:	-13,082	14,236	-1,154
– Gross Longs:	24,233	57,403	12,794
– Gross Shorts:	37,315	43,167	13,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.9	62.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-23.8	10.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 5,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	52.8	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	54.3	16.7
– Net Position:	5,458	-3,883	-1,575
– Gross Longs:	70,707	131,223	40,005
– Gross Shorts:	65,249	135,106	41,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	20.2	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	1.2	13.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	83.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	71.1	4.0
– Net Position:	-67,510	63,856	3,654
– Gross Longs:	52,926	429,656	24,280
– Gross Shorts:	120,436	365,800	20,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	4.7	31.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 61 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	63.6	27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	35.1	18.2
– Net Position:	-6,185	4,671	1,514
– Gross Longs:	1,460	10,407	4,492
– Gross Shorts:	7,645	5,736	2,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	64.3	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	-1.4	11.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	90.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	88.2	1.6
– Net Position:	-11,743	9,769	1,974
– Gross Longs:	25,587	356,504	8,292
– Gross Shorts:	37,330	346,735	6,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.8	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-7.0	-14.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

08 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (7,992 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,006 contracts), Live Cattle (2,354 contracts), Wheat (1,713 contracts) and Cocoa (1,032 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-67,035 contracts) with Sugar (-20,806 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-10,876 contracts), Cotton (-8,336 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-3,275 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,816,043	37	141,429	1	-170,148	99	28,719	37
Gold	448,063	12	163,097	49	-184,717	53	21,620	34
Silver	114,421	0	17,990	44	-29,569	58	11,579	31
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	14,781	100	-7,890	0	8,358	100	-468	14
Platinum	69,383	70	8,067	34	-13,570	65	5,503	42
Natural Gas	1,241,419	57	-98,775	33	68,313	67	30,462	52
Brent	127,019	1	-39,873	34	38,114	70	1,759	33
Heating Oil	305,681	38	27,699	78	-41,810	40	14,111	47
Soybeans	610,352	8	90,973	25	-71,924	72	-19,049	55
Corn	1,246,983	8	46,403	28	524	76	-46,927	46
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	863,843	40	199,368	61	-229,713	39	30,345	42
Wheat	297,933	7	-45,464	34	51,053	70	-5,589	54

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (94 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week and are in Bullish-Extreme levels. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (55 percent) and Soybean Oil (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (7 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.8 percent)
Sugar (61.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (68.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (24.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (54.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.7 percent)
Live Cattle (92.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (90.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.1 percent)
Cotton (7.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (94.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (93.3 percent)
Wheat (34.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (40 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (24 percent), Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Corn (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Soybean Meal (-8 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.2 percent)
Sugar (-26.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.9 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-7.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.0 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.1 percent)
Cocoa (7.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.9 percent)
Wheat (29.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -67,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	49.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	48.9	13.6
– Net Position:	46,403	524	-46,927
– Gross Longs:	270,772	610,770	122,354
– Gross Shorts:	224,369	610,246	169,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	76.2	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-17.4	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 199,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 220,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	43.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	69.9	5.1
– Net Position:	199,368	-229,713	30,345
– Gross Longs:	280,634	374,262	74,497
– Gross Shorts:	81,266	603,975	44,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	39.5	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	28.5	-25.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	50.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	62.0	10.2
– Net Position:	90,973	-71,924	-19,049
– Gross Longs:	170,206	306,598	43,239
– Gross Shorts:	79,233	378,522	62,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	72.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-24.1	17.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	56.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	66.8	5.1
– Net Position:	40,809	-48,028	7,219
– Gross Longs:	85,067	274,385	32,017
– Gross Shorts:	44,258	322,413	24,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	57.7	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.8	-39.8	30.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	37.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	60.6	6.3
– Net Position:	95,998	-109,012	13,014
– Gross Longs:	118,320	182,431	43,129
– Gross Shorts:	22,322	291,443	30,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	48.9	14.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	6.1	14.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 105,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	29.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	55.6	11.9
– Net Position:	105,443	-92,019	-13,424
– Gross Longs:	153,517	100,089	27,594
– Gross Shorts:	48,074	192,108	41,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	10.3	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-2.6	-9.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	39.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	32.0	10.4
– Net Position:	-12,574	14,847	-2,273
– Gross Longs:	58,151	78,658	18,525
– Gross Shorts:	70,725	63,811	20,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	83.6	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-13.9	-25.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	50.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	49.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-1,678	2,320	-642
– Gross Longs:	53,597	88,184	11,530
– Gross Shorts:	55,275	85,864	12,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	91.9	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.8	-5.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,552 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	26.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	48.0	3.2
– Net Position:	72,584	-75,594	3,010
– Gross Longs:	151,319	90,381	14,031
– Gross Shorts:	78,735	165,975	11,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	7.0	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-5.1	-23.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	41.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	24.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-45,464	51,053	-5,589
– Gross Longs:	83,554	123,400	27,557
– Gross Shorts:	129,018	72,347	33,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.7	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.0	-23.6	-38.9

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