COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 55

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Cocoa, Lean Hogs, Wheat & Brent top Bull/Bear Leaders

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 30th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,668 net contracts this week with a change of 9 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 7.5 this week. The speculator position registered 65,573 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher of 199 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 15.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 78,005 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,062 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 54.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,222 net contracts this week with a jump of 144,765 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 91.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.8 this week.

The speculator position was 101,378 net contracts this week with a small decline of -269 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,114 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,262 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.6 this week. The speculator position was -31,248 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,385 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -93,996 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,677 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Brent Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.4 this week. The speculator position was -53,294 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,488 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.5 this week. The speculator position was -850,421 net contracts this week with a decrease of -78,783 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

27 May

Currency Speculators drop Japanese Yen bets to 30-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Australian Dollar & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,513 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,308 contracts), US Dollar Index (1,726 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (1,712 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (956 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-15,869 contracts), EuroFX (-13,353 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-5,536 contracts), British Pound (-1,004 contracts), Brazilian Real (-914 contracts) and Bitcoin (-118 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop Japanese Yen bets to 30-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewed weakness of the speculator’s positioning for the Japanese yen.

Large speculative yen positions dropped this week by -15,869 net contracts and fell for the second week in a row. Over the past fifteen weeks, yen speculator bets have declined in eight of those weeks and a total of -51,571 contracts has been added to the bearish standing.

This week’s yen net position of -80,660 contracts marks the most bearish level of the past 30 weeks, dating back to October. From November to late-January, the yen positions had started to improve and started to shed bearish bets. The spec position saw improving positions in 10 out of 12 weeks through January 31st and this improvement brought the overall net position down to just -20,060 contracts. Since then, however, bearish bets have steadily risen and culminated in this week’s 30-week high.

The yen futures price is also back in a downtrend after rising approximately 17 percent from the most recent bottom in October to the most recent top in January. The yen futures have now fallen for three straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks with this week’s closing price at 0.0071 and at the lowest level since November.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	30,203	24	11,240	44	-13,869	54	2,629	45
EUR	781,123	84	173,736	85	-224,195	15	50,459	59
GBP	237,614	60	11,589	79	-16,676	23	5,087	68
JPY	226,400	64	-80,660	19	92,378	81	-11,718	30
CHF	44,808	52	-903	52	1,691	48	-788	55
CAD	159,199	36	-48,526	9	49,140	90	-614	21
AUD	180,138	74	-49,081	39	60,043	64	-10,962	26
NZD	39,011	32	-363	53	-556	45	919	61
MXN	233,538	49	76,943	100	-82,616	0	5,673	83
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	53,223	44	32,692	77	-36,671	20	3,979	76
Bitcoin	13,043	56	893	93	-1,245	0	352	21

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and Bitcoin (93 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (85 percent), British Pound (79 percent) and the Brazilian Real (77 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Japanese Yen (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the US Dollar Index (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (40.8 percent)
EuroFX (85.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (90.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (29.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (49.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (39.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (35.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (52.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (48.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (77.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.5 percent)
Bitcoin (92.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (94.6 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (35 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (15 percent), the British Pound (12 percent) and the Mexican Peso (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.7 percent)
EuroFX (4.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (16.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (14.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-10.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-24.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (25.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (24.9 percent)
Bitcoin (35.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (28.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,726 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,514 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.5	2.8	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.3	48.8	9.2
– Net Position:	11,240	-13,869	2,629
– Gross Longs:	22,194	859	5,398
– Gross Shorts:	10,954	14,728	2,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.7	53.7	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	1.8	9.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 173,736 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	53.5	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	82.2	5.3
– Net Position:	173,736	-224,195	50,459
– Gross Longs:	250,070	418,071	92,077
– Gross Shorts:	76,334	642,266	41,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.3	14.8	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-4.1	2.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,589 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,593 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	51.9	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.2	58.9	10.9
– Net Position:	11,589	-16,676	5,087
– Gross Longs:	69,203	123,348	31,097
– Gross Shorts:	57,614	140,024	26,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	22.8	68.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-7.7	-5.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -80,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.2	69.6	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	28.8	17.4
– Net Position:	-80,660	92,378	-11,718
– Gross Longs:	36,760	157,498	27,680
– Gross Shorts:	117,420	65,120	39,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.2	80.7	29.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.4	17.6	-25.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,859 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	40.9	30.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	37.1	32.3
– Net Position:	-903	1,691	-788
– Gross Longs:	10,267	18,328	13,674
– Gross Shorts:	11,170	16,637	14,462
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	47.8	54.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-13.3	7.5

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -48,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	65.1	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	34.2	19.9
– Net Position:	-48,526	49,140	-614
– Gross Longs:	20,388	103,597	31,126
– Gross Shorts:	68,914	54,457	31,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	89.6	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-6.2	2.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -49,081 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.7	56.7	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.9	23.3	16.7
– Net Position:	-49,081	60,043	-10,962
– Gross Longs:	53,419	102,079	19,057
– Gross Shorts:	102,500	42,036	30,019
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	63.7	25.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	9.7	-4.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,712 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,075 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	45.8	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	47.2	8.0
– Net Position:	-363	-556	919
– Gross Longs:	16,648	17,854	4,036
– Gross Shorts:	17,011	18,410	3,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.6	45.2	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-7.4	-11.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 76,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.8	45.6	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	81.0	1.1
– Net Position:	76,943	-82,616	5,673
– Gross Longs:	118,579	106,541	8,155
– Gross Shorts:	41,636	189,157	2,482
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	82.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-11.6	7.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,692 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.1	17.0	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	85.9	3.3
– Net Position:	32,692	-36,671	3,979
– Gross Longs:	38,371	9,074	5,736
– Gross Shorts:	5,679	45,745	1,757
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.4	19.5	75.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-27.2	18.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 893 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	1.3	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	70.8	10.8	6.6
– Net Position:	893	-1,245	352
– Gross Longs:	10,124	168	1,207
– Gross Shorts:	9,231	1,413	855
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.5	9.1	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.1	-67.9	-9.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

27 May

Speculator Extremes: MXN, Cocoa, US Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 23rd.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 76,943 net contracts this week with a change of 3,308 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 9.7 this week. The speculator position registered -1,677 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 20 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 6.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 65,374 net contracts this week with a change of 1,319 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 35.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 893 net contracts this week with a change of -118 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.9 this week.

The speculator position was 101,647 net contracts this week with a change of -469 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -33,852 net contracts this week with a change of -5,118 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.9 this week. The speculator position was -771,638 net contracts this week with a change of -79,196 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -40.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -890,202 net contracts this week with a change of -36,627 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The S&P500 Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.1 this week. The speculator position was -404,292 net contracts this week with a change of -15,571 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.7 this week. The speculator position was -934,069 net contracts this week with a change of -10,156 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

COT Updates Opinions

27 May

Speculators drop their 10-Year Bonds bets to lowest level on record

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (65,278 contracts) with the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (28,348 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (18,345 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-79,196 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-36,627 contracts), the Fed Funds (-20,924 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-20,128 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-10,156 contracts) and the Eurodollar (-4,665 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

10-Year Bonds Speculator bets hit lowest level on record

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the record weakness in the 10-Year Treasury Bond contracts. The 10-Year Bond contract dropped this week by -79,196 contracts and fell for the sixth time out of the past eight weeks which has added a total of -300,060 contracts to the bearish level.

This weakness has pushed the 10-Year speculative positions to hit their most bearish level on record this week at a total of -771,638 contracts, according to CFTC data that stretches back to 1986. This eclipses the previous record of -756,316 contracts that was reached on September of 2018.

The 10-Year now joins both the 2-Year and 5-Year Treasury Bonds with current record low levels in speculator positions.

The 2-Year speculator positions fell again this week for the fourth straight week and has a new record low level position at -890,202 contracts. The 2-Year speculators have added a total of -343,895 contracts to the bearish standing in just the past four weeks.

Meanwhile, the 5-Year speculator positioning dropped again for the fifth consecutive week and hit a new record bearish position of -934,069 contracts. A total of-179,567 contracts has been added to the bearish position in the past five weeks.

The 10-Year futures price is back on the downtrend over the past three weeks after rising to touch a 7-month high in March. The futures price closed this week at 112.13 which still remains about 3.30 percent above the most recent low-point (and approximately 15-year low) that was hit in October.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	556,278	0	-41,549	73	43,737	23	-2,188	99
FedFunds	1,735,674	66	-88,495	29	107,292	73	-18,797	54
2-Year	3,266,610	100	-890,202	0	800,371	100	89,831	99
Long T-Bond	1,299,274	83	-43,236	71	3,696	12	39,540	77
10-Year	4,902,288	100	-771,638	0	682,402	95	89,236	93
5-Year	5,105,531	100	-934,069	0	882,607	100	51,462	95

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (86 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (28.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (31.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (8.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (12.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.5 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (64.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (14.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (23.4 percent)
Eurodollar (73.0 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (73.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (86.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (81.0 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (29 percent) and the Eurodollar (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The 2-Year Bonds (-40 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-14 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (9.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (-40.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-35.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (-16.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-13.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-13.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
Eurodollar (15.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (15.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (4.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (2.8 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -41,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,884 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	61.0	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.6	53.1	10.3
– Net Position:	-41,549	43,737	-2,188
– Gross Longs:	156,341	339,284	55,303
– Gross Shorts:	197,890	295,547	57,491
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	22.8	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-18.0	31.2

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -101,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -166,821 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.8 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.1	61.1	0.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	59.9	0.5
– Net Position:	-101,543	108,863	-7,320
– Gross Longs:	1,568,592	5,953,387	45,538
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,135	5,844,524	52,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.3	14.2	83.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-4.1	-4.1

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -88,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,571 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	76.5	1.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	70.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-88,495	107,292	-18,797
– Gross Longs:	100,027	1,327,988	33,520
– Gross Shorts:	188,522	1,220,696	52,317
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	72.7	54.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-8.4	-20.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -890,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -36,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -853,575 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	82.4	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	57.9	4.7
– Net Position:	-890,202	800,371	89,831
– Gross Longs:	270,465	2,690,719	244,689
– Gross Shorts:	1,160,667	1,890,348	154,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.2	40.2	25.6

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -934,069 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -923,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.3	82.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	64.7	6.8
– Net Position:	-934,069	882,607	51,462
– Gross Longs:	423,353	4,186,028	396,832
– Gross Shorts:	1,357,422	3,303,421	345,370
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.7	16.6	3.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -771,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -79,196 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -692,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.8	77.5	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	63.5	7.5
– Net Position:	-771,638	682,402	89,236
– Gross Longs:	480,032	3,797,760	454,534
– Gross Shorts:	1,251,670	3,115,358	365,298
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	94.9	92.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.9	6.5	15.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -158,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 28,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,427 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	76.0	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	62.5	15.2
– Net Position:	-158,079	234,828	-76,749
– Gross Longs:	174,270	1,319,934	186,701
– Gross Shorts:	332,349	1,085,106	263,450
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.2	84.5	68.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-9.8	4.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -43,236 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 18,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	74.4	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	74.1	11.8
– Net Position:	-43,236	3,696	39,540
– Gross Longs:	112,271	966,329	192,516
– Gross Shorts:	155,507	962,633	152,976
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.5	11.9	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-23.5	-17.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -409,108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -20,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -388,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.5 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.5	80.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	57.9	8.4
– Net Position:	-409,108	350,435	58,673
– Gross Longs:	84,063	1,239,774	187,318
– Gross Shorts:	493,171	889,339	128,645
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	76.0	98.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	0.9	8.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

27 May

Metals Speculators boost Copper & Platinum bets, trim Gold bullish positions

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (2,799 contracts) with Platinum (1,656 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,082 contracts), Silver (-1,857 contracts), Steel (-891 contracts) and Palladium (-373 contracts).

Highlights of this week’s positions:

The largest mover of the week this week was the Gold speculative position. The large speculative position of Gold futures fell by over -19,000 contracts this week following a decline by -16,000 contracts last week. These declines have not taken much off the overall net position that has been trending higher since late in 2022 and recently reaching an approximate 1-year high of +195,814 contracts on May 9th. Gold prices have been strong lately as well with Gold futures prices reaching their highest levels since 2020 at over $2,000 in early May.

Copper speculator bets rebounded a bit this week after dropping for four weeks in a row and for six out of the past seven weeks. Copper positions have been dented by less than expected economic activity out of China and last week the Copper speculator positions dropped to the most bearish level in the past 165-weeks. Copper prices have also been on the downtrend since last year and have fallen approximately 25 percent from the highs of March 2022.

The Platinum speculative position continues to increase higher and has risen in six out of the past nine weeks. Platinum fundamentals have been boosted with car manufacturers starting to use more Platinum in their products, especially in electric vehicles. The futures price fell this week but has been in an uptrend since bottoming in September and recently touched its highest level in over a year at $1148.90 in late-April.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	479,080	26	160,732	48	-187,023	52	26,291	46
Silver	135,740	21	21,958	50	-34,972	52	13,014	39
Copper	215,394	55	-29,808	2	27,496	97	2,312	33
Palladium	11,138	71	-5,289	17	5,669	85	-380	19
Platinum	73,079	82	27,479	79	-32,157	27	4,678	31

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (79 percent) and Steel (58 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (2 percent) and Palladium (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (47.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (56.2 percent)
Silver (49.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.2 percent)
Copper (2.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (79.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (75.2 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (20.1 percent)
Steel (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.4 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (33 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Copper (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Gold (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.8 percent)
Silver (-2.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.6 percent)
Copper (-22.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-26.3 percent)
Platinum (32.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (24.0 percent)
Palladium (16.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.0 percent)
Steel (-0.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 160,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,082 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.3	29.8	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	68.9	4.8
– Net Position:	160,732	-187,023	26,291
– Gross Longs:	236,149	142,984	49,327
– Gross Shorts:	75,417	330,007	23,036
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.8	51.7	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.1	11.4	6.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 21,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.8	31.1	18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	56.8	9.3
– Net Position:	21,958	-34,972	13,014
– Gross Longs:	56,686	42,194	25,655
– Gross Shorts:	34,728	77,166	12,641
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	51.5	38.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	1.6	2.7

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -29,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,607 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	47.0	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	34.2	7.3
– Net Position:	-29,808	27,496	2,312
– Gross Longs:	61,463	101,169	17,941
– Gross Shorts:	91,271	73,673	15,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.5	96.7	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.6	24.4	-20.2

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 27,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.4	27.0	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	71.0	3.6
– Net Position:	27,479	-32,157	4,678
– Gross Longs:	41,246	19,698	7,306
– Gross Shorts:	13,767	51,855	2,628
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.0	27.0	30.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.6	-28.2	-6.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,916 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	66.4	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.9	15.5	15.8
– Net Position:	-5,289	5,669	-380
– Gross Longs:	1,720	7,400	1,379
– Gross Shorts:	7,009	1,731	1,759
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.7	84.7	18.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.5	-15.3	2.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	82.6	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.0	63.5	1.2
– Net Position:	-5,311	5,467	-156
– Gross Longs:	2,112	23,604	191
– Gross Shorts:	7,423	18,137	347
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	42.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.6	1.5	-40.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

27 May

Soft Commodities: Cotton Speculators boost their bullish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 23rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (20,764 contracts) with Sugar (2,981 contracts), Coffee (1,713 contracts), Soybean Oil (1,620 contracts) and Cocoa (1,319 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-13,808 contracts) with Soybeans (-8,949 contracts), Soybean Meal (-2,319 contracts), Wheat (-4,907 contracts), Live Cattle (-469 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-5,118 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlights of Weekly positions:

Cotton speculative bets this week (+20,764 contracts) jumped by the highest weekly amount in over a year. This has brought the current speculator standing to the most bullish level (+22,319 contracts) since October of 2021. Cotton prices have had a big downfall since their highs in May of 2022 with a peak-to-trough drop of over 50 percent but looked to have bottomed for the time being.

Soybeans bets have dropped sharply over the past two months with speculator positions falling for seven straight weeks. The current net position for Soybeans is at the lowest level since November of 2021 due to an expectation of a record crop in the United States.

Wheat speculator bets dipped again this week and have declined in ten out of the past fourteen weeks. Wheat prices have cooled off markedly since screaming higher at the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The futures price has fallen over 50 percent from the highest levels of 2022 and has recently crossed below the 200-week moving average.

Corn speculator positions declined this week and have now fallen by a total of -167,903 contracts over the past 5-week period. This recent bearishness has brought the speculator positioning into an overall bearish level for the first time since August of 2020. Like many of the other agriculture soft commodities, Corn prices are down from their 2022 highs with the current Corn level lower by about 25 percent from May 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-23-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,847,901	40	193,119	9	-217,386	91	24,267	28
Gold	479,080	26	160,732	48	-187,023	52	26,291	46
Silver	135,740	21	21,958	50	-34,972	52	13,014	39
Copper	215,394	55	-29,808	2	27,496	97	2,312	33
Palladium	11,138	71	-5,289	17	5,669	85	-380	19
Platinum	73,079	82	27,479	79	-32,157	27	4,678	31
Natural Gas	1,338,868	76	-112,278	27	80,837	72	31,441	55
Brent	146,776	19	-47,806	10	45,210	92	2,596	44
Heating Oil	306,360	39	9,097	43	-16,705	80	7,608	25
Soybeans	651,248	17	29,205	1	-2,404	96	-26,801	28
Corn	1,299,841	14	-62,267	22	115,832	88	-53,565	23
Coffee	198,683	11	32,748	61	-33,373	43	625	20
Sugar	983,887	67	273,810	88	-323,323	11	49,513	67
Wheat	379,453	54	-86,319	3	80,586	98	5,733	93

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Live Cattle (92 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Sugar (88 percent), Soybean Meal (65 percent) and Coffee (61 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Soybean Oil (1 percent), Soybeans (1 percent) and the Wheat (3 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (22.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.8 percent)
Sugar (87.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (86.7 percent)
Coffee (61.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (59.3 percent)
Soybeans (0.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (0.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (65.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.3 percent)
Live Cattle (92.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (92.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (4.3 percent)
Cotton (25.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.9 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (98.4 percent)
Wheat (2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.4 percent)

Cotton & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (19 percent) and Coffee (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (8 percent), Cocoa (7 percent) and Sugar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybeans (-59 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-21 percent), Wheat (-14 percent) and Soybean Oil (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-21.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-17.1 percent)
Sugar (5.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (8.6 percent)
Coffee (8.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybeans (-59.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-57.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-12.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-3.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-0.4 percent)
Live Cattle (7.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (17.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-7.5 percent)
Cotton (19.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (6.2 percent)
Cocoa (6.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (4.6 percent)
Wheat (-14.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-15.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -62,267 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.8	52.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.6	43.6	13.1
– Net Position:	-62,267	115,832	-53,565
– Gross Longs:	282,880	682,886	116,884
– Gross Shorts:	345,147	567,054	170,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.1	88.4	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.2	22.9	3.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 273,810 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.6	39.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.8	72.1	4.3
– Net Position:	273,810	-323,323	49,513
– Gross Longs:	350,244	386,150	92,284
– Gross Shorts:	76,434	709,473	42,771
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.7	11.0	67.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.0	-1.8	-10.5

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 32,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	44.6	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	61.4	3.3
– Net Position:	32,748	-33,373	625
– Gross Longs:	53,687	88,628	7,267
– Gross Shorts:	20,939	122,001	6,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.0	42.7	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-8.1	3.2

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 29,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,949 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	53.9	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	54.3	11.0
– Net Position:	29,205	-2,404	-26,801
– Gross Longs:	138,687	351,024	44,581
– Gross Shorts:	109,482	353,428	71,382
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.6	96.0	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-59.0	50.6	7.0

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -27,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,620 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,483 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.0	55.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.2	50.5	5.8
– Net Position:	-27,863	28,911	-1,048
– Gross Longs:	86,842	302,248	30,161
– Gross Shorts:	114,705	273,337	31,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.9	99.3	5.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.9	3.0

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 110,022 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	38.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.5	63.4	7.0
– Net Position:	110,022	-119,902	9,880
– Gross Longs:	136,546	184,271	43,425
– Gross Shorts:	26,524	304,173	33,545
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.1	40.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	7.4	-36.9

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 101,647 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.6	27.0	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	54.1	13.3
– Net Position:	101,647	-89,891	-11,756
– Gross Longs:	151,178	89,344	32,235
– Gross Shorts:	49,531	179,235	43,991
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.1	12.2	24.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-2.6	-27.2

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -33,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	37.8	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	24.7	9.1
– Net Position:	-33,852	30,405	3,447
– Gross Longs:	60,033	88,003	24,705
– Gross Shorts:	93,885	57,598	21,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	98.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	8.0	4.4

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	46.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	59.5	4.8
– Net Position:	22,319	-26,017	3,698
– Gross Longs:	63,540	88,722	13,024
– Gross Shorts:	41,221	114,739	9,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.5	72.7	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.3	-19.7	21.1

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 65,374 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.4	29.0	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	50.1	3.1
– Net Position:	65,374	-70,745	5,371
– Gross Longs:	142,438	97,452	15,901
– Gross Shorts:	77,064	168,197	10,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	50.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.8	2.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -86,319 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -81,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	37.2	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	16.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-86,319	80,586	5,733
– Gross Longs:	112,390	141,282	37,340
– Gross Shorts:	198,709	60,696	31,607
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	97.7	92.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.3	15.3	4.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

20 May

Currency Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (8,065 contracts) with the EuroFX (7,667 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,603 contracts), Swiss Franc (2,608 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,506 contracts) and Bitcoin (588 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-4,401 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,776 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-1,642 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-727 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-988 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators raise British Pound bullish bets for 6th time in 7 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the rising bullishness of the speculator’s positioning in the British pound sterling. Large speculative pound Sterling positions gained this week for a second consecutive week and for the sixth time in the past seven weeks.

Sterling weekly positions have now increased by a total of +36,677 contracts over the past seven-week period. This bullish turn in bets has taken the overall net speculator position from a total of -24,084 contracts on March 28th to a total of +12,593 contracts this week, the best level since November of 2021. The sterling position has been in a bullish level for five straight weeks after a streak of sixty straight weeks in bearish territory through April 11th.

The sterling’s front-month future’s price has been on the uptrend since bottoming in September with a low at the 1.0392 exchange rate. This week’s closing price of 1.2457 is approximately 20 percent higher than that September low.

Helping boost the sterling in recent months is the rising interest rate as the Bank of England increased it’s Bank Rate to 4.5 percent at the May 11th meeting. The inflation rate in the UK currently is right around 10 percent (with a target of 2 percent) and investor’s are expecting more rate rises to come, according to ING.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	30,880	25	9,514	41	-12,357	56	2,843	48
EUR	789,930	88	187,089	90	-238,333	10	51,244	61
GBP	247,165	66	12,593	80	-17,729	22	5,136	68
JPY	200,515	47	-64,791	29	76,137	73	-11,346	30
CHF	43,681	48	-1,859	50	2,838	50	-979	54
CAD	161,195	38	-42,990	14	44,533	86	-1,543	19
AUD	167,020	63	-53,594	35	61,902	65	-8,308	32
NZD	36,187	24	-2,075	48	1,943	51	132	52
MXN	254,037	57	73,635	100	-79,465	0	5,830	92
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	50,633	40	33,606	79	-36,899	19	3,293	70
Bitcoin	13,043	56	1,011	95	-1,463	0	452	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the Bitcoin (95 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (90 percent), British Pound (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (79 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Japanese Yen (29 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (40.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.5 percent)
EuroFX (90.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (72.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (31.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (49.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (42.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (48.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (41.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (79.8 percent)
Bitcoin (94.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (84.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (24 percent), the EuroFX (17 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Australian Dollar (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-8 percent) and Japanese Yen (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-7.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (16.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (13.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (23.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (24.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-4.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (16.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-24.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-12.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (5.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (24.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (14.1 percent)
Bitcoin (28.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 9,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.9	9.1	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.1	49.1	9.1
– Net Position:	9,514	-12,357	2,843
– Gross Longs:	20,669	2,817	5,644
– Gross Shorts:	11,155	15,174	2,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	56.1	47.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	6.0	8.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 187,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,422 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	52.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	82.9	5.3
– Net Position:	187,089	-238,333	51,244
– Gross Longs:	258,736	416,383	93,212
– Gross Shorts:	71,647	654,716	41,968
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	10.0	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.8	-14.7	-0.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,593 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	50.8	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	58.0	10.4
– Net Position:	12,593	-17,729	5,136
– Gross Longs:	77,388	125,675	30,873
– Gross Shorts:	64,795	143,404	25,737
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	22.0	68.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-18.1	-1.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,776 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,015 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.7	71.0	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.0	33.0	18.9
– Net Position:	-64,791	76,137	-11,346
– Gross Longs:	29,494	142,392	26,570
– Gross Shorts:	94,285	66,255	37,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.0	72.8	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	11.6	-32.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,859 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,467 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	42.4	33.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	35.9	35.7
– Net Position:	-1,859	2,838	-979
– Gross Longs:	8,561	18,524	14,600
– Gross Shorts:	10,420	15,686	15,579
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	49.7	54.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.2	-13.2	6.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -42,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -727 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.7	60.9	19.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.4	33.2	20.0
– Net Position:	-42,990	44,533	-1,543
– Gross Longs:	28,514	98,089	30,767
– Gross Shorts:	71,504	53,556	32,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.5	86.4	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.5	-9.3	-4.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -53,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,401 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	58.7	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.4	21.7	16.8
– Net Position:	-53,594	61,902	-8,308
– Gross Longs:	43,903	98,069	19,676
– Gross Shorts:	97,497	36,167	27,984
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.1	65.1	32.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	18.7	3.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,075 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,581 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.4	49.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.1	43.8	9.8
– Net Position:	-2,075	1,943	132
– Gross Longs:	14,610	17,789	3,695
– Gross Shorts:	16,685	15,846	3,563
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.0	51.1	51.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-1.8	-14.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 73,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	43.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	75.0	1.2
– Net Position:	73,635	-79,465	5,830
– Gross Longs:	133,268	111,178	8,968
– Gross Shorts:	59,633	190,643	3,138
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.4	-11.3	3.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,594 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.4	14.7	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.0	87.6	2.4
– Net Position:	33,606	-36,899	3,293
– Gross Longs:	38,661	7,439	4,485
– Gross Shorts:	5,055	44,338	1,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.6 to 1	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	19.3	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.9	-26.2	13.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 1,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.1	1.2	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.3	12.5	6.8
– Net Position:	1,011	-1,463	452
– Gross Longs:	10,055	163	1,334
– Gross Shorts:	9,044	1,626	882
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.6	0.0	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	28.4	-53.7	-7.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

20 May

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and 5-Year Treasuries

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (286,007 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (39,256 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (25,171 contracts), the Eurodollar (18,226 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (11,539 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (11,548 contracts), and the Fed Funds (7,746 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 2-Year Bonds (-103,690 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (-13,271 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds Speculators continue to raise record bearish bets in 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds

Highlighting the COT bonds data once again this week was an increase in the record bearish speculator positions for both the 2-Year and the 5-Year bonds.

The large speculators in the 2-Year bonds sharply added to their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and for the fourth time in the past five weeks. Speculators have now added more than -100,000 contracts to the bearish position in each of the past two weeks. There has been a total of -356,734 contracts added to the overall bearish standing in the past five weeks which has taken the position from -496,841 on April 11th to a total new historical record bearish level of -853,575 contracts this week.

Meanwhile, the 5-Year Bond speculator positions only edged slightly lower this week but have now been more bearish for four straight weeks. The last four weeks have added a total of -169,411 contracts to the net speculator level and has brought the current bearish position to a record total of -923,913 contracts.

The 2-Year and 5-Years front-month futures prices were on retreat this week as were most of the bonds across the US Treasury yield curve. The 5-Year price closed at the 108.22 level but remains approximately 3 percent higher from the most recent low hit in October. The 2-Year futures price closed the week at 102.19 and only approximately 1.25 percent higher than the recent low reached in March.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	550,147	0	-36,884	73	39,568	23	-2,684	99
FedFunds	1,585,578	54	-67,571	31	88,368	71	-20,797	50
2-Year	3,164,301	100	-853,575	0	772,391	100	81,184	95
Long T-Bond	1,236,267	67	-61,581	65	-315	10	61,896	94
10-Year	4,718,099	100	-692,442	6	570,703	83	121,739	100
5-Year	5,100,803	100	-923,913	0	872,715	99	51,198	95

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (81 percent) and the Eurodollar (73 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (65 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (11.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
US Treasury Bond (64.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (60.8 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (23.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.5 percent)
Eurodollar (73.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (72.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (81.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (57.8 percent)

US Treasury Bonds & Eurodollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the Eurodollar (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (10 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-37 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (9.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (11.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (-37.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-23.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-14.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-22.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-7.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (22.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.9 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (8.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (9.0 percent)
Eurodollar (15.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (14.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (2.8 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -36,884 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,226 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	60.7	11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	53.5	11.5
– Net Position:	-36,884	39,568	-2,684
– Gross Longs:	155,249	333,675	60,427
– Gross Shorts:	192,133	294,107	63,111
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.1	22.7	98.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.7	-18.5	35.7

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -166,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 286,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -452,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	61.5	0.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	59.8	0.5
– Net Position:	-166,821	176,705	-9,884
– Gross Longs:	1,503,562	6,133,861	41,542
– Gross Shorts:	1,670,383	5,957,156	51,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.0	19.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.8	-2.4	-2.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -67,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,746 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.4	76.7	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	71.1	3.3
– Net Position:	-67,571	88,368	-20,797
– Gross Longs:	69,674	1,216,347	31,381
– Gross Shorts:	137,245	1,127,979	52,178
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	70.6	50.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-8.3	-21.8

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -853,575 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -103,690 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -749,885 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	82.6	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	58.1	4.6
– Net Position:	-853,575	772,391	81,184
– Gross Longs:	290,539	2,612,188	227,803
– Gross Shorts:	1,144,114	1,839,797	146,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	94.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.3	35.3	29.8

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -923,913 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,271 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -910,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	81.9	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.7	64.8	6.2
– Net Position:	-923,913	872,715	51,198
– Gross Longs:	435,965	4,177,142	368,639
– Gross Shorts:	1,359,878	3,304,427	317,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.1	95.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.0	12.3	6.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -692,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 39,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -731,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	76.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	64.0	7.1
– Net Position:	-692,442	570,703	121,739
– Gross Longs:	527,490	3,588,001	454,956
– Gross Shorts:	1,219,932	3,017,298	333,217
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	82.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.7	-5.2	25.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -186,427 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 25,171 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -211,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	77.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	62.1	14.3
– Net Position:	-186,427	267,999	-81,572
– Gross Longs:	173,884	1,340,651	164,624
– Gross Shorts:	360,311	1,072,652	246,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.5	91.6	65.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-2.4	6.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,548 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.4	76.1	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.4	76.2	9.9
– Net Position:	-61,581	-315	61,896
– Gross Longs:	91,193	941,115	183,809
– Gross Shorts:	152,774	941,430	121,913
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	10.5	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.1	-29.5	10.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -388,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -400,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.6	80.1	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	58.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-388,980	328,975	60,005
– Gross Longs:	97,884	1,192,422	183,052
– Gross Shorts:	486,864	863,447	123,047
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	65.3	99.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-12.6	5.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

20 May

Palladium Speculators trim bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 16th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals this week was Palladium with a gain of 731 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,000 contracts), Silver (-8,545 contracts), Copper (-7,742 contracts), Steel (-524 contracts) and Platinum (-2,261 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium speculators trim their bearish bets for 2nd week as sentiment & prices improve

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the improvement in bets for the Palladium speculative positions. Palladium was the only metal with a gain in speculator bets this week and has now risen for two straight weeks. Palladium has also gained in three out of the past five weeks. The current net speculator position of -4,916 contracts is the least bearish standing out of the past fourteen weeks.

The speculator positioning has been improving for Palladium as the strength index score (speculator positioning range of past three years) came out of a bearish extreme position this week for the first time since February 7th. Palladium’s strength index has improved by 16 percentage points over the past six weeks.

Fundamentally, the outlook for Palladium has taken a hit with car manufacturers looking to use Platinum instead of Palladium for parts, especially in electric cars. Despite the pullback from manufacturers, recent reports have shown the both Platinum and Palladium supply will be in deficits this year, possibly putting a floor under prices.

Palladium prices have bounced off of a major support level at $1,400 in recent weeks and closed this week above $1,520. Palladium raced as high as $3,425 in March of 2022 before dropping sharply into a downtrend that has extended into this year. Palladium bulls hope that the recent drop to $1,333 in March marks a new bottom as it coincides with the 2020 pandemic low-point as well.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-16-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	521,832	46	179,814	56	-211,557	42	31,743	60
Silver	140,139	26	23,815	52	-37,067	49	13,252	40
Copper	210,415	51	-32,607	0	28,695	98	3,912	43
Palladium	12,761	93	-4,916	20	5,388	82	-472	13
Platinum	73,410	83	25,823	75	-30,405	31	4,582	30

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (75 percent) and Steel (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (0 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (20 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Silver (52 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (56.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (63.3 percent)
Silver (52.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (64.4 percent)
Copper (0.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.9 percent)
Platinum (75.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (80.4 percent)
Palladium (20.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (13.4 percent)
Steel (60.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (61.9 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (24 percent) and Palladium (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (-7 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Steel (-1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-26 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.2 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.1 percent)
Copper (-26.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.7 percent)
Platinum (24.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (40.9 percent)
Palladium (16.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (10.3 percent)
Steel (-0.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 179,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -16,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 195,814 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.9	26.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	67.0	4.4
– Net Position:	179,814	-211,557	31,743
– Gross Longs:	255,250	138,322	54,852
– Gross Shorts:	75,436	349,879	23,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.2	42.3	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.8	2.6	21.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	30.7	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.1	57.2	8.8
– Net Position:	23,815	-37,067	13,252
– Gross Longs:	60,440	43,026	25,607
– Gross Shorts:	36,625	80,093	12,355
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.2	49.0	40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.6	-6.8	17.4

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -32,607 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,865 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	47.5	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	33.9	7.3
– Net Position:	-32,607	28,695	3,912
– Gross Longs:	59,693	100,023	19,241
– Gross Shorts:	92,300	71,328	15,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.8	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.3	28.5	-24.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,823 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	28.9	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.3	70.3	3.7
– Net Position:	25,823	-30,405	4,582
– Gross Longs:	39,962	21,228	7,282
– Gross Shorts:	14,139	51,633	2,700
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	30.6	29.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.0	-23.2	10.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,916 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,647 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	61.9	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.5	19.7	12.6
– Net Position:	-4,916	5,388	-472
– Gross Longs:	1,782	7,900	1,136
– Gross Shorts:	6,698	2,512	1,608
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.1	82.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-13.6	-6.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -4,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -524 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.7	0.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.8	62.4	1.0
– Net Position:	-4,420	4,502	-82
– Gross Longs:	2,997	21,755	185
– Gross Shorts:	7,417	17,253	267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.1	8.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	1.6	-34.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

20 May

Speculator Extremes: MXN Peso, Cocoa, Lean Hogs & 2-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 16th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 11.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 73,635 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,603 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 9.6 this week. The speculator position registered -1,697 net contracts this week with a weekly rise of 404 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 4.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 64,055 net contracts this week with a gain of 2,026 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is at a 94.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 28.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,011 net contracts this week with an increase of 588 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 17.9 this week.

The speculator position was 102,116 net contracts this week with a rise of 4,279 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -28,734 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,659 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.8 this week. The speculator position was -29,483 net contracts this week with a drop of -21,208 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -853,575 net contracts this week with a decrease of -103,690 contracts in the speculator bets.

S&P500 Mini

The S&P500 Mini speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The S&P500 Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -10.8 this week. The speculator position was -388,721 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -12,698 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.0 this week. The speculator position was -923,913 net contracts this week with a drop of -13,271 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

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COT Updates Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.