InvestMacro

By InvestMacro
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 41.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,039 net contracts this week with a change of 532 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 8.7 this week. The speculator position registered 86,220 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 2,999 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 18.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 272,072 net contracts this week with a change of -53,150 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 25.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 38,737 net contracts this week with a change of -715 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level sits at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.8 this week.

The speculator position was 46,384 net contracts this week with a change of -2,017 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,079 net contracts this week with a change of -11,282 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.9 this week. The speculator position was -11,021 net contracts this week with a change of -1,045 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Corn speculator level resides at a 2.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -45,632 net contracts this week with a change of -9,819 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 3.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,217,890 net contracts this week with a change of -48,034 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 5.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.3 this week. The speculator position was -791,535 net contracts this week with a change of 14,018 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (10,052 contracts) with the British Pound (3,968 contracts), US Dollar Index (2,367 contracts), Japanese Yen (2,219 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,445 contracts) and Bitcoin (437 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,788 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-10,205 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,564 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,068 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,628 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s rebound and the overall strength in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions rose this week by almost +4,000 contracts and turned around a three-week streak of declines.

The Sterling speculative level has been on the move higher recently and is at its strongest levels in years with the average contract level of the past ten weeks right around +50,000 contracts. On July 18th, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts) ascended to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years.

The Pound’s positioning has been helped out by continued high inflation in the United Kingdom which brings forecasts for higher interest rates. The UK consumer inflation numbers for July came in at 6.8 percent with a core inflation reading of 6.9 percent. The Bank of England has boosted the interest rate to combat inflation for fourteen consecutive meetings and brought the rate to 5.25 percent at it’s last meeting which is the highest since 2008. The BOE may need to further push the rate higher to bring inflation back down to reasonable levels which in turn can provide the UK currency with an interest rate differential advantage against other currencies.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in an uptrend over recent months with the exchange rate hitting over 1.3000 in July. Since that 2023 high, the Sterling has cooled off some but remains over the psychologically significant 1.2500 exchange rate.

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (91 percent), the Mexican Peso (89 percent) and the EuroFX (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent) and Bitcoin (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (33 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (35 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (33.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (80.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (91.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (88.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (47.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.4 percent)
Bitcoin (64.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.9 percent)

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (7 percent) and the British Pound (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-15 percent), Brazilian Real (-10 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-15.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-20.6 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (1.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-9.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.5 percent)
Bitcoin (23.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -80,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 82,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 8th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Swiss Franc

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (8,600 contracts) with the Swiss Franc (3,295 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-22,251 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (-6,988 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-5,312 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-4,897 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,964 contracts), the British Pound (-2,542 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,954 contracts), Bitcoin (-610 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets drop for 6th straight week to new 2-year low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued decreasing nature of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index.

The large speculative US Dollar Index positions fell for a sixth straight week this week with the speculator position now declining by a total of -12,344 contracts over this last six-week span.

This bearishness has brought the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at just a total of +2,624 contracts) to a new 110-week low, dating back to June 29th of 2021 when the speculator’s net position was last in negative territory at a total of -448 contracts.

Despite the speculator’s pessimism in the US Dollar Index contracts, the futures price has been on the rise for a fourth consecutive week. The USD futures price advanced by approximately 1 percent this week with a Friday close right around the 102.70 level, it’s highest close level since June. The USD Index futures had fallen to a price of 99.22 on July 18th before rebounding and starting back on it’s current trend higher.

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (90 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week and are in Extreme-Bullish levels. The EuroFX (76 percent), Brazilian Real (71 percent) and the Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (21 percent) and the US Dollar Index (29 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (42 percent) and the Australian Dollar (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (29.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (30.1 percent)
EuroFX (76.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (84.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (88.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (90.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (20.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (23.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (32.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (54.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (60.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (44.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (52.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (57.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (90.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (93.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (71.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.2 percent)
Bitcoin (56.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (67.5 percent)

Japanese Yen & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (18 percent) and the Bitcoin (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (2 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-21 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Mexican Peso (-8 percent), Brazilian Real (-5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-20.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-19.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (10.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-3.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (17.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-10.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (2.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (1.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-4.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (9.5 percent)
Bitcoin (16.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-16.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: New Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: New Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 149,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -22,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -83,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,964 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,365 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -43,192 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,792 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly drop of -4,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,548 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,312 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline by -610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -539 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.