COT Updates

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Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Speculator Extremes: GBP, MXN, 2-Year and Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 98.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 29.2 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 50,265 net contracts this week with a change of -1,729 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 11.2 this week. The speculator position registered 95,240 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -1,109 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 97.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 23.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 239,839 net contracts this week with a change of -44,151 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 94.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 7.6 this week. The overall speculator position was 72,584 net contracts this week with a change of 1,032 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 92.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.1 this week.

The speculator position was 105,443 net contracts this week with a change of 2,354 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -450,572 net contracts this week with a change of -26,881 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.7 this week. The speculator position was -1,058,426 net contracts this week with a change of -44,022 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -48.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -206,500 net contracts this week with a change of -18,761 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.1 this week. The speculator position was -117,920 net contracts this week with a change of -5,050 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.4 this week. The speculator position was -7,890 net contracts this week with a change of -566 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions

08 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (11,187 contracts) with Steel (1,150 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-11,702 contracts), Palladium (-566 contracts), Platinum (-4,093 contracts) and Silver (-1,062 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	448,063	12	163,097	49	-184,717	53	21,620	34
Silver	114,421	0	17,990	44	-29,569	58	11,579	31
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	14,781	100	-7,890	0	8,358	100	-468	14
Platinum	69,383	70	8,067	34	-13,570	65	5,503	42

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent)comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (48.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (43.9 percent)
Silver (43.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (45.4 percent)
Copper (23.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (33.4 percent)
Platinum (34.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.6 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (72.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (69.5 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (23 percent) and Steel (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (1.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (-12.3 percent)
Silver (-5.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.8 percent)
Copper (18.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (30.7 percent)
Platinum (-44.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-31.5 percent)
Palladium (-22.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.7 percent)
Steel (15.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (9.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,187 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	25.6	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	66.9	5.3
– Net Position:	163,097	-184,717	21,620
– Gross Longs:	235,081	114,905	45,490
– Gross Shorts:	71,984	299,622	23,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	52.6	34.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	0.9	-11.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,052 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	33.0	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	58.9	10.0
– Net Position:	17,990	-29,569	11,579
– Gross Longs:	46,433	37,784	23,020
– Gross Shorts:	28,443	67,353	11,441
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	58.1	30.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.7	6.5	-8.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	42.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	44.4	7.2
– Net Position:	1,888	-4,003	2,115
– Gross Longs:	64,740	86,761	16,759
– Gross Shorts:	62,852	90,764	14,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	68.3	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-19.7	-19.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,093 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	28.6	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	48.2	5.1
– Net Position:	8,067	-13,570	5,503
– Gross Longs:	36,443	19,856	9,026
– Gross Shorts:	28,376	33,426	3,523
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	65.4	41.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.8	38.4	11.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -566 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.6	63.1	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.0	6.6	13.1
– Net Position:	-7,890	8,358	-468
– Gross Longs:	3,342	9,330	1,463
– Gross Shorts:	11,232	972	1,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	9.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	13.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.4	21.0	-5.3

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,280 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.5	74.9	1.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	75.1	0.7
– Net Position:	-130	-28	158
– Gross Longs:	4,129	17,669	312
– Gross Shorts:	4,259	17,697	154
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	26.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.0	-16.0	40.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

08 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by 10-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

The only market with gains for the bond category was the 10-Year Bonds with a total rise of 20,321 contracts.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the SOFR 3-Months (-44,151 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-44,022 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (-31,326 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-24,681 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-26,881 contracts), the Fed Funds (-17,553 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,713 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	9,300,042	89	239,839	97	-233,436	2	-6,403	84
FedFunds	1,414,525	39	-106,758	34	115,921	66	-9,163	73
2-Year	3,667,737	100	-1,058,426	0	970,602	100	87,824	97
Long T-Bond	1,242,918	63	-139,929	39	106,742	49	33,187	73
10-Year	4,737,762	91	-780,678	7	719,909	96	60,769	87
5-Year	5,080,610	99	-1,029,814	0	1,026,687	100	3,127	82

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (97 percent). The US Treasury Bonds (39 percent) and the Fed Funds (34 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra Treasury Bonds (0 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (33.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (36.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (3.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (39.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (47.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (11.1 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (97.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (24 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 10-Year Bonds (-1 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-31 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-2.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-3.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (-14.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (-8.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.6 percent)
10-Year Bond (-0.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-10.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (3.7 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (11.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-31.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-17.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-17.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (23.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (31.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 239,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -44,151 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 283,990 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.2	58.6	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	61.1	0.4
– Net Position:	239,839	-233,436	-6,403
– Gross Longs:	1,880,577	5,453,300	28,213
– Gross Shorts:	1,640,738	5,686,736	34,616
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.0	2.1	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.5	-23.9	0.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -106,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,205 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	72.0	2.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.0	63.8	3.1
– Net Position:	-106,758	115,921	-9,163
– Gross Longs:	91,610	1,018,379	35,112
– Gross Shorts:	198,368	902,458	44,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	66.3	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.9	1.4	18.9

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,058,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -44,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,014,404 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.1	81.2	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	54.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,058,426	970,602	87,824
– Gross Longs:	405,459	2,977,688	241,676
– Gross Shorts:	1,463,885	2,007,086	153,852
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	96.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.7	16.7	-0.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,029,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -31,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -998,488 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.9	84.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	64.4	7.3
– Net Position:	-1,029,814	1,026,687	3,127
– Gross Longs:	348,230	4,297,985	373,393
– Gross Shorts:	1,378,044	3,271,298	370,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	100.0	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	13.0	-13.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -780,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 20,321 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -800,999 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	80.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.6	65.0	7.6
– Net Position:	-780,678	719,909	60,769
– Gross Longs:	434,456	3,798,675	418,993
– Gross Shorts:	1,215,134	3,078,766	358,224
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	95.9	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	4.0	-6.2

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,188 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.9	76.8	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	65.2	15.2
– Net Position:	-139,901	197,302	-57,401
– Gross Longs:	168,089	1,304,780	201,280
– Gross Shorts:	307,990	1,107,478	258,681
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	76.4	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.7	-8.1	11.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -139,929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -24,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -115,248 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	79.3	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	70.7	11.6
– Net Position:	-139,929	106,742	33,187
– Gross Longs:	70,648	985,219	177,299
– Gross Shorts:	210,577	878,477	144,112
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.1	48.7	72.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.5	36.7	-4.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -450,572 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -423,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.6	83.6	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	57.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-450,572	394,354	56,218
– Gross Longs:	69,955	1,272,590	174,627
– Gross Shorts:	520,527	878,236	118,409
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	99.2	90.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	23.2	-2.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

08 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by VIX & DowJones-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was VIX (9,797 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (5,840 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,241 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (1,011 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (61 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were with the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,784 contracts) and the Russell-Mini (-3,810 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,211,004	22	-207,239	34	205,791	68	1,448	45
Nikkei 225	16,359	17	-6,185	29	4,671	64	1,514	47
Nasdaq-Mini	248,698	29	5,458	80	-3,883	20	-1,575	50
DowJones-Mini	95,161	55	-13,082	37	14,236	63	-1,154	38
VIX	406,805	76	-54,924	79	58,022	17	-3,098	80
Nikkei 225 Yen	57,318	49	10,965	68	15,896	54	-26,861	20

Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (80 percent) and the VIX (79 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (68 percent) and DowJones-Mini (37 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Nikkei 225 (29 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the MSCI EAFE-Mini (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (72.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (33.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (33.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (36.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (20.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (80.3 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (87.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (31.5 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (33.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (28.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (28.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (29.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (24.7 percent)

S&P500-Mini & DowJones-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (29 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The DowJones-Mini (27 percent), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (11 percent) and the VIX (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Russell-Mini (-11 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nasdaq-Mini (-5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (7.1 percent) vs VIX previous week (-7.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (29.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (26.9 percent)
DowJones-Mini (27.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (7.7 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-5.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-1.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-11.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (0.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (-4.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-11.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (10.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (1.0 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -54,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	50.2	6.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.7	35.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-54,924	58,022	-3,098
– Gross Longs:	94,274	204,071	26,095
– Gross Shorts:	149,198	146,049	29,193
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	17.5	80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.1	-7.3	2.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -207,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -208,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	76.4	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.5	67.1	11.1
– Net Position:	-207,239	205,791	1,448
– Gross Longs:	223,358	1,688,344	245,999
– Gross Shorts:	430,597	1,482,553	244,551
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.8	68.3	44.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.4	-29.8	6.8

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -13,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	60.3	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.2	45.4	14.7
– Net Position:	-13,082	14,236	-1,154
– Gross Longs:	24,233	57,403	12,794
– Gross Shorts:	37,315	43,167	13,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.9	62.7	38.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-23.8	10.3

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 5,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	52.8	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	54.3	16.7
– Net Position:	5,458	-3,883	-1,575
– Gross Longs:	70,707	131,223	40,005
– Gross Shorts:	65,249	135,106	41,580
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	20.2	50.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	1.2	13.6

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,510 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,700 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	83.5	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.4	71.1	4.0
– Net Position:	-67,510	63,856	3,654
– Gross Longs:	52,926	429,656	24,280
– Gross Shorts:	120,436	365,800	20,626
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.5	66.4	37.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.2	4.7	31.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,185 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 61 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	63.6	27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	35.1	18.2
– Net Position:	-6,185	4,671	1,514
– Gross Longs:	1,460	10,407	4,492
– Gross Shorts:	7,645	5,736	2,978
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.7	64.3	47.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	-1.4	11.4

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,743 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	90.7	2.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	88.2	1.6
– Net Position:	-11,743	9,769	1,974
– Gross Longs:	25,587	356,504	8,292
– Gross Shorts:	37,330	346,735	6,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	70.8	26.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-7.0	-14.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

08 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (7,992 contracts) with Lean Hogs (4,006 contracts), Live Cattle (2,354 contracts), Wheat (1,713 contracts) and Cocoa (1,032 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-67,035 contracts) with Sugar (-20,806 contracts), Coffee (-18,522 contracts), Soybeans (-10,876 contracts), Cotton (-8,336 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-3,275 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,816,043	37	141,429	1	-170,148	99	28,719	37
Gold	448,063	12	163,097	49	-184,717	53	21,620	34
Silver	114,421	0	17,990	44	-29,569	58	11,579	31
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	14,781	100	-7,890	0	8,358	100	-468	14
Platinum	69,383	70	8,067	34	-13,570	65	5,503	42
Natural Gas	1,241,419	57	-98,775	33	68,313	67	30,462	52
Brent	127,019	1	-39,873	34	38,114	70	1,759	33
Heating Oil	305,681	38	27,699	78	-41,810	40	14,111	47
Soybeans	610,352	8	90,973	25	-71,924	72	-19,049	55
Corn	1,246,983	8	46,403	28	524	76	-46,927	46
Coffee	180,118	3	8,495	36	-8,052	68	-443	7
Sugar	863,843	40	199,368	61	-229,713	39	30,345	42
Wheat	297,933	7	-45,464	34	51,053	70	-5,589	54

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (94 percent) and Live Cattle (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week and are in Bullish-Extreme levels. Sugar (61 percent), Soybean Meal (55 percent) and Soybean Oil (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (7 percent) and Lean Hogs (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (28.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (37.8 percent)
Sugar (61.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (68.7 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (24.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (37.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (54.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.7 percent)
Live Cattle (92.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (90.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (19.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (16.1 percent)
Cotton (7.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (94.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (93.3 percent)
Wheat (34.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (33.3 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (40 percent) and Wheat (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (24 percent), Lean Hogs (17 percent) and Corn (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-23 percent), Soybean Meal (-8 percent) and Cotton (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.2 percent)
Sugar (-26.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-17.9 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (24.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (39.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-7.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-7.3 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (1.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (10.0 percent)
Cotton (-2.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.1 percent)
Cocoa (7.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.9 percent)
Wheat (29.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (24.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -67,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 113,438 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.7	49.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	48.9	13.6
– Net Position:	46,403	524	-46,927
– Gross Longs:	270,772	610,770	122,354
– Gross Shorts:	224,369	610,246	169,281
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.1	76.2	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-17.4	9.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 199,368 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,806 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 220,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.5	43.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.4	69.9	5.1
– Net Position:	199,368	-229,713	30,345
– Gross Longs:	280,634	374,262	74,497
– Gross Shorts:	81,266	603,975	44,152
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.4	39.5	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.4	28.5	-25.2

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.0	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	51.4	3.9
– Net Position:	8,495	-8,052	-443
– Gross Longs:	42,190	84,606	6,662
– Gross Shorts:	33,695	92,658	7,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.1	67.9	7.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	24.0	-19.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 90,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,876 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,849 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	50.2	7.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.0	62.0	10.2
– Net Position:	90,973	-71,924	-19,049
– Gross Longs:	170,206	306,598	43,239
– Gross Shorts:	79,233	378,522	62,288
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	72.0	55.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-24.1	17.8

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 40,809 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	56.9	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	66.8	5.1
– Net Position:	40,809	-48,028	7,219
– Gross Longs:	85,067	274,385	32,017
– Gross Shorts:	44,258	322,413	24,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	57.7	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	39.8	-39.8	30.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 95,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	37.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.6	60.6	6.3
– Net Position:	95,998	-109,012	13,014
– Gross Longs:	118,320	182,431	43,129
– Gross Shorts:	22,322	291,443	30,115
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	48.9	14.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	6.1	14.0

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 105,443 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,354 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	29.0	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	55.6	11.9
– Net Position:	105,443	-92,019	-13,424
– Gross Longs:	153,517	100,089	27,594
– Gross Shorts:	48,074	192,108	41,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	10.3	14.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-2.6	-9.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -12,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	39.4	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.5	32.0	10.4
– Net Position:	-12,574	14,847	-2,273
– Gross Longs:	58,151	78,658	18,525
– Gross Shorts:	70,725	63,811	20,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	83.6	73.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.5	-13.9	-25.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,678 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	50.9	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	49.5	7.0
– Net Position:	-1,678	2,320	-642
– Gross Longs:	53,597	88,184	11,530
– Gross Shorts:	55,275	85,864	12,172
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	91.9	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.4	2.8	-5.7

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 72,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,032 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,552 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	26.1	4.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	48.0	3.2
– Net Position:	72,584	-75,594	3,010
– Gross Longs:	151,319	90,381	14,031
– Gross Shorts:	78,735	165,975	11,021
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.4	7.0	26.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.6	-5.1	-23.7

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -45,464 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,177 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.0	41.4	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	24.3	11.1
– Net Position:	-45,464	51,053	-5,589
– Gross Longs:	83,554	123,400	27,557
– Gross Shorts:	129,018	72,347	33,146
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	69.7	53.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.0	-23.6	-38.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Jun

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (39,873 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (20,883 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,129 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,125 contracts), Swiss Franc (192 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,173 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-3,680 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,828 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-254 contracts) and Bitcoin (-346 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was this week’s sharp boost in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions jumped by over +39,000 contracts this week and halted a two-week streak of declines.

The Pound weekly positions rise was the largest one-week increase on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The gain has pushed the overall net position now to over +46,608 contracts and the highest standing since April 17th of 2018, a span of 270 weeks.

The Pound’s positioning was helped out by the anticipation of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate increase that was by 50 basis points on Thursday. This brought the bank rate to 5 percent and its highest sitting in the past 15 years.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar reacted strongly and touched it’s highest level (1.2874) since April of 2022 after the interest rate announcement. However, the Pound closed out Thursday and Friday lower with the weekly close at the 1.2714 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	27,306	17	14,861	50	-16,574	49	1,713	35
EUR	732,979	64	144,649	74	-192,723	25	48,074	56
GBP	226,505	53	46,608	100	-59,003	0	12,395	82
JPY	238,556	71	-107,656	3	118,272	93	-10,616	32
CHF	36,128	22	-4,851	42	5,236	54	-385	56
CAD	184,106	51	-33,543	23	18,758	69	14,785	56
AUD	149,898	44	-49,616	39	50,986	57	-1,370	49
NZD	32,401	13	-2,659	46	4,441	57	-1,782	29
MXN	224,897	46	99,718	100	-103,040	0	3,322	32
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	52,991	43	25,902	69	-23,418	36	-2,484	24
Bitcoin	15,687	78	397	84	-927	0	530	25

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), EuroFX (74 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (3 percent) and the comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (49.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.3 percent)
EuroFX (74.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (68.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.1 percent)
Bitcoin (83.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.9 percent)

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (33 percent) and the Mexican Peso (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (8 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (-13.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-15.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-0.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.8	3.1	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	63.8	9.5
– Net Position:	14,861	-16,574	1,713
– Gross Longs:	20,972	835	4,318
– Gross Shorts:	6,111	17,409	2,605
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.7	49.4	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-6.3	2.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 144,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	54.4	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.6	80.7	6.1
– Net Position:	144,649	-192,723	48,074
– Gross Longs:	229,399	398,646	92,826
– Gross Shorts:	84,750	591,369	44,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.1	25.4	55.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	14.0	-10.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.8	32.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	58.6	10.8
– Net Position:	46,608	-59,003	12,395
– Gross Longs:	101,567	73,692	36,837
– Gross Shorts:	54,959	132,695	24,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	82.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	33.1	-30.4	10.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.5	73.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.6	23.9	16.2
– Net Position:	-107,656	118,272	-10,616
– Gross Longs:	32,244	175,201	27,983
– Gross Shorts:	139,900	56,929	38,599
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.6	93.4	31.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.7	24.0	-5.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.0	43.1	33.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	28.6	34.8
– Net Position:	-4,851	5,236	-385
– Gross Longs:	8,322	15,585	12,170
– Gross Shorts:	13,173	10,349	12,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.8	53.6	56.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.8	-0.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	62.4	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.5	52.2	12.8
– Net Position:	-33,543	18,758	14,785
– Gross Longs:	28,187	114,925	38,400
– Gross Shorts:	61,730	96,167	23,615
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	68.9	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-15.8	32.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	52.9	14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.6	18.9	15.2
– Net Position:	-49,616	50,986	-1,370
– Gross Longs:	45,743	79,300	21,444
– Gross Shorts:	95,359	28,314	22,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	56.9	49.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-4.4	15.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	57.3	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.7	43.6	14.1
– Net Position:	-2,659	4,441	-1,782
– Gross Longs:	10,867	18,573	2,794
– Gross Shorts:	13,526	14,132	4,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	57.0	28.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	0.4	-24.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 99,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	42.1	3.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	87.9	2.2
– Net Position:	99,718	-103,040	3,322
– Gross Longs:	121,005	94,733	8,262
– Gross Shorts:	21,287	197,773	4,940
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.1	-15.8	-20.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.9	20.2	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	64.4	15.3
– Net Position:	25,902	-23,418	-2,484
– Gross Longs:	36,535	10,685	5,625
– Gross Shorts:	10,633	34,103	8,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	35.9	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.1	16.1	-35.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	1.6	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.5	7.5	4.6
– Net Position:	397	-927	530
– Gross Longs:	11,932	250	1,259
– Gross Shorts:	11,535	1,177	729
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.9	22.5	25.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.5	8.6	-4.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

24 Jun

Copper Speculators raise their bets into first bullish position in 9 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,794 contracts) with Gold (2,766 contracts), Palladium (501 contracts) and Steel (175 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-3,678 contracts) and Platinum (-2,500 contracts) having lower bets on the week.

Copper Speculators raise their bets into first bullish position in 9 weeks

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the gains for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by +14,794 contracts this week following a gain by +13,050 contracts last week. The speculator position has now risen by over +37,590 contracts in total over the past three weeks.

This renewed positive sentiment has brought the net position standing back into a small bullish level after spending the past eight weeks in bearish territory.

Despite the bullish return of speculators, Copper prices closed out the week lower following three straight weeks of gains. The futures price touched a six-week high on Thursday at 3.967 before turning lower and finishing the week at 3.8035.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	438,037	7	162,975	49	-186,537	52	23,562	39
Silver	152,633	40	20,058	47	-36,210	50	16,152	56
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	12,304	87	-6,635	5	7,214	96	-579	7
Platinum	69,436	70	19,472	61	-25,052	42	5,580	43

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (48.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.6 percent)
Silver (46.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (32.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.7 percent)
Platinum (60.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (66.3 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (67.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.3 percent)

Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (23 percent) and Steel (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-20 percent), Silver (-18 percent) and Gold (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.6 percent)
Silver (-17.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (23.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.6 percent)
Platinum (-19.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.4 percent)
Steel (5.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (4.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 162,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,209 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	27.7	10.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.1	70.3	5.4
– Net Position:	162,975	-186,537	23,562
– Gross Longs:	229,308	121,419	47,402
– Gross Shorts:	66,333	307,956	23,840
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	51.9	39.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	13.9	-7.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.4	30.1	18.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.3	53.8	7.9
– Net Position:	20,058	-36,210	16,152
– Gross Longs:	52,547	45,941	28,208
– Gross Shorts:	32,489	82,151	12,056
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.9	50.0	56.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.6	12.1	13.0

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.7	42.4	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.7	44.4	7.2
– Net Position:	1,888	-4,003	2,115
– Gross Longs:	64,740	86,761	16,759
– Gross Shorts:	62,852	90,764	14,644
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	68.3	31.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.1	-19.7	-19.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.1	28.3	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	64.4	4.8
– Net Position:	19,472	-25,052	5,580
– Gross Longs:	34,059	19,682	8,936
– Gross Shorts:	14,587	44,734	3,356
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	41.7	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	15.4	15.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	67.2	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.4	8.6	14.3
– Net Position:	-6,635	7,214	-579
– Gross Longs:	2,525	8,268	1,182
– Gross Shorts:	9,160	1,054	1,761
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.6	96.4	6.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	10.3	-15.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	78.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.5	71.8	0.4
– Net Position:	-1,855	1,710	145
– Gross Longs:	4,085	21,522	264
– Gross Shorts:	5,940	19,812	119
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.8	32.0	38.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-6.4	22.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

24 Jun

Speculator Extremes: British Pound, Peso & Live Cattle lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 20th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 33.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 46,608 net contracts this week with a change of 39,873 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 18.1 this week. The speculator position registered 99,718 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 20,883 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 47.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 204,698 net contracts this week with a change of 78,952 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 99.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 2.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,510 net contracts this week with a change of -48 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 93.2 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 8.7 this week.

The speculator position was 105,936 net contracts this week with a change of -6,313 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -32.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -154,369 net contracts this week with a change of -61,298 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -24.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,027,276 net contracts this week with a change of 19,169 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 2.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -28.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -107,656 net contracts this week with a change of -3,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 3.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.7 this week. The speculator position was 166,477 net contracts this week with a change of 11,403 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

Finally, the Palladium speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week. The speculator position was -6,635 net contracts this week with a change of 501 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

COT Updates Opinions

24 Jun

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (73,681 contracts) with Soybeans (25,583 contracts), Wheat (20,463 contracts), Soybean Oil (13,962 contracts), Sugar (9,741 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,704 contracts), Coffee (5,163 contracts) and Soybean Meal (4,314 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cocoa (-10,597 contracts) with Cotton (-4,552 contracts) and Live Cattle (-6,313 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Corn Speculators push their bullish bets sharply higher on drought

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the renewed bullish appetite of the Corn’s speculator’s positioning. The speculator positioning sharply jumped this week by over +73,681 contracts following a gain of +59,863 contracts last week. The Corn speculative bets have risen in four straight weeks and for six out of the past seven weeks.

The grains markets have been starting to see higher prices coming back over the past month due to a drought in the US Midwest that has been stated as the worst since 2012. Speculators have been reacting to the changes in the weather and have now pushed their overall net standing for Corn back into a bullish position last week after spending the previous six weeks in bearish territory.

Corn’s futures price had been on a rise for three out of the previous four weeks and touched a nine-week high this week above 672.0 but ended up closing the week lower at the 630.6 price level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-20-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,846,816	40	166,477	3	-189,918	97	23,441	26
Gold	438,037	7	162,975	49	-186,537	52	23,562	39
Silver	152,633	40	20,058	47	-36,210	50	16,152	56
Copper	204,399	46	1,888	32	-4,003	68	2,115	32
Palladium	12,304	87	-6,635	5	7,214	96	-579	7
Platinum	69,436	70	19,472	61	-25,052	42	5,580	43
Natural Gas	1,303,558	69	-109,315	28	79,735	71	29,580	50
Brent	144,348	17	-47,056	13	45,090	91	1,966	36
Heating Oil	310,297	40	16,100	57	-28,496	61	12,396	41
Soybeans	662,469	19	88,532	24	-67,634	73	-20,898	47
Corn	1,290,348	13	118,773	39	-58,030	67	-60,743	28
Coffee	185,800	7	33,494	62	-33,426	43	-68	12
Sugar	967,113	63	261,001	83	-310,762	15	49,761	67
Wheat	353,865	39	-66,364	20	63,862	80	2,502	82

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Cocoa

On the downside, Lean Hogs (14 percent) and Cotton (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (39.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.7 percent)
Sugar (83.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (79.7 percent)
Coffee (61.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (56.5 percent)
Soybeans (23.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (34.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (26.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (63.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (61.6 percent)
Live Cattle (93.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (100.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (14.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (8.0 percent)
Cotton (13.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.2 percent)
Cocoa (88.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (100.0 percent)
Wheat (19.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.1 percent)

Corn & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Corn (25 percent) and Soybean Oil (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (13 percent), Soybeans (10 percent) and Soybean Meal (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (4 percent) and Lean Hogs (6 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (25.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.0 percent)
Sugar (-5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-5.7 percent)
Coffee (-0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-8.5 percent)
Soybeans (9.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (21.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.6 percent)
Live Cattle (8.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-5.5 percent)
Cotton (4.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (5.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (13.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 118,773 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 73,681 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,092 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.5	48.3	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.3	52.8	14.1
– Net Position:	118,773	-58,030	-60,743
– Gross Longs:	342,125	623,477	121,205
– Gross Shorts:	223,352	681,507	181,948
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	66.6	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.2	-24.1	-22.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 261,001 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 251,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	40.9	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.4	73.0	4.5
– Net Position:	261,001	-310,762	49,761
– Gross Longs:	342,320	395,116	93,065
– Gross Shorts:	81,319	705,878	43,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.2	14.8	67.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.5	6.3	-6.6

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 33,494 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,331 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.8	41.3	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	59.3	3.8
– Net Position:	33,494	-33,426	-68
– Gross Longs:	51,676	76,767	7,058
– Gross Shorts:	18,182	110,193	7,126
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.8	42.6	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.0	1.1	-12.4

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 88,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 25,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,949 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.4	53.3	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.1	63.5	10.0
– Net Position:	88,532	-67,634	-20,898
– Gross Longs:	161,793	353,062	45,676
– Gross Shorts:	73,261	420,696	66,574
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.9	73.4	46.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.5	-10.1	10.1

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,127 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	59.2	5.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.5	65.1	5.3
– Net Position:	28,127	-30,138	2,011
– Gross Longs:	76,705	301,792	29,161
– Gross Shorts:	48,578	331,930	27,150
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	67.0	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.1	-20.3	10.7

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,314 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,436 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	38.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	62.7	6.3
– Net Position:	107,750	-122,189	14,439
– Gross Longs:	130,518	195,986	46,491
– Gross Shorts:	22,768	318,175	32,052
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.9	38.8	20.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-9.4	5.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 105,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 112,249 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.1	27.5	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	55.3	12.1
– Net Position:	105,936	-94,062	-11,874
– Gross Longs:	155,744	92,892	29,165
– Gross Shorts:	49,808	186,954	41,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.2	7.7	23.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-4.9	-22.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -18,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	40.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	29.5	10.2
– Net Position:	-18,727	20,759	-2,032
– Gross Longs:	56,562	77,522	17,534
– Gross Shorts:	75,289	56,763	19,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.3	88.9	74.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.0	-2.7	-19.6

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,210 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.8	51.0	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	56.2	6.5
– Net Position:	6,658	-8,868	2,210
– Gross Longs:	52,445	86,869	13,339
– Gross Shorts:	45,787	95,737	11,129
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.7	84.3	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-5.1	12.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.7	27.9	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.9	49.0	3.0
– Net Position:	67,342	-71,968	4,626
– Gross Longs:	152,239	95,151	14,724
– Gross Shorts:	84,897	167,119	10,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.8	10.8	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-5.4	-1.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -66,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	38.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	20.5	9.3
– Net Position:	-66,364	63,862	2,502
– Gross Longs:	98,146	136,416	35,384
– Gross Shorts:	164,510	72,554	32,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.6	80.0	81.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.1	-13.4	-5.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

24 Jun

COT Bonds Charts: Speculators raised Fed Funds and SOFR 3-Months bets this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & SOFR 3-Months

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (84,512 contracts) with the SOFR 3-Months (78,952 contracts), 5-Year Bonds (76,570 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (19,169 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (1,640 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-58,144 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-6,411 contracts), the Eurodollar (-8,627 contracts) and the US Treasury Bonds (-2,554 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-13-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	511,711	0	-11,672	74	23,432	22	-11,760	97
FedFunds	1,693,141	63	-101,642	32	115,607	69	-13,965	64
2-Year	3,503,880	100	-1,027,276	2	939,587	98	87,689	97
Long T-Bond	1,233,359	63	-102,301	51	66,493	34	35,808	74
10-Year	4,641,767	86	-749,997	10	681,043	92	68,954	89
5-Year	4,948,670	92	-958,826	7	931,171	92	27,655	89

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (100 percent) and the Eurodollar (74 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (51 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (7 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (19.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (1.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (9.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (17.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (51.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (52.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.3 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (20.0 percent)
Eurodollar (73.7 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (74.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (94.2 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (48 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Eurodollar (1 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 2-Year Bonds (-25 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-4 percent) and the Fed Funds (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-3.8 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-21.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (-24.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-36.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-4.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-11.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-1.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (16.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-9.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-1.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (0.8 percent)
Eurodollar (1.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (1.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (47.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (54.7 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -11,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,045 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	67.2	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	62.6	11.3
– Net Position:	-11,672	23,432	-11,760
– Gross Longs:	118,404	343,978	45,860
– Gross Shorts:	130,076	320,546	57,620
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.7	22.3	96.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.1	-1.0	0.1

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of 204,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 78,952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 125,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.4	60.1	1.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	62.0	1.3
– Net Position:	204,698	-189,803	-14,895
– Gross Longs:	1,811,313	6,267,481	122,143
– Gross Shorts:	1,606,615	6,457,284	137,038
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	79.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	47.9	-47.7	-5.6

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -101,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 84,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -186,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	71.1	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	64.3	3.5
– Net Position:	-101,642	115,607	-13,965
– Gross Longs:	147,292	1,204,550	45,368
– Gross Shorts:	248,934	1,088,943	59,333
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.6	69.3	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	1.6	29.0

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,027,276 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,046,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.6	80.9	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	54.1	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,027,276	939,587	87,689
– Gross Longs:	406,848	2,836,230	244,127
– Gross Shorts:	1,434,124	1,896,643	156,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.7	98.0	96.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.5	25.7	9.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -958,826 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 76,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,035,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.4	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.3	64.6	6.8
– Net Position:	-958,826	931,171	27,655
– Gross Longs:	394,457	4,129,490	363,566
– Gross Shorts:	1,353,283	3,198,319	335,911
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.8	91.8	88.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.3	5.3	-2.9

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -749,997 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -58,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691,853 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	79.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.3	65.2	7.5
– Net Position:	-749,997	681,043	68,954
– Gross Longs:	425,965	3,708,456	415,816
– Gross Shorts:	1,175,962	3,027,413	346,862
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	91.8	88.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	4.2	-4.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -134,686 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -136,326 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.5	76.8	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	65.0	15.1
– Net Position:	-134,686	200,704	-66,018
– Gross Longs:	179,226	1,306,770	191,631
– Gross Shorts:	313,912	1,106,066	257,649
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	77.1	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-17.9	3.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -102,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,747 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	77.3	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.6	71.9	11.6
– Net Position:	-102,301	66,493	35,808
– Gross Longs:	89,659	952,842	178,917
– Gross Shorts:	191,960	886,349	143,109
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.3	34.3	74.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	22.9	-25.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -403,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -396,993 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.6	82.3	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	59.1	7.5
– Net Position:	-403,404	342,024	61,380
– Gross Longs:	82,695	1,212,061	172,397
– Gross Shorts:	486,099	870,037	111,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.3	71.6	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	0.6	1.7

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