Archive for COT Updates – Page 49

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

Currency Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets for 9th time in 10 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (1,337 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (536 contracts) and Bitcoin (532 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-13,352 contracts), EuroFX (-10,448 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-9,202 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,342 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,624 contracts), Brazilian Real (-2,655 contracts), the British Pound (-2,017 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-807 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets for 9th time in 10 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued weakness of the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative currency positions for the Aussie dropped this week by over -13,000 net contracts and fell for the fourth consecutive week as well as for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks.

The AUD positioning has now shed a total of -40,345 contracts over these past four weeks and this has brought the overall net speculator standing (currently at -83,352 contracts) to the lowest level in the past eighty weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022 when the net position was -84,080 contracts. The 3-Year Strength Index is showing a 7.4 percent score for the AUD, marking an extreme bearish reading for speculators this week.

The Australian dollar has been in a downtrend over the course in 2023 after opening the year at approximately the 0.6815 exchange rate and this week touched the lowest level since November of 2022 at a low of 0.6360.

Hurting the AUD’s exchange against the US Dollar is the interest rate disparity and the possible future divergence of the central banks with the US Federal Reserve possibly continuing to raise its benchmark rate (currently at 5.25-5.50%) while the Reserve Bank of Australia is assumed to be finished boosting its rate (currently at 4.10%).


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index36,579263,35931-5,005681,64626
EUR754,26365136,23177-175,8542439,62342
GBP225,4045246,38488-49,955183,57165
JPY268,34490-97,13612105,86787-8,73136
CHF46,67059-5,3254210,68759-5,36242
CAD189,66055-24,9633129,46176-4,49813
AUD241,201100-83,537795,36690-11,82924
NZD56,46279-14,0001617,29187-3,29111
MXN246,0615467,52180-71,732194,21138
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL34,8711913,93354-15,569461,63650
Bitcoin14,962692,039100-2,534049524

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (77 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (7 percent), the Japanese Yen (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (30.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.6 percent)
EuroFX (77.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (88.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (89.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (31.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (7.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (56.9 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.8 percent)

 

Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the Swiss Franc (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-4.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.7 percent)
EuroFX (-17.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-13.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-8.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-28.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-30.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-22.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.1 percent)
Bitcoin (41.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.4 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.620.412.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.434.08.0
– Net Position:3,359-5,0051,646
– Gross Longs:22,8817,4484,587
– Gross Shorts:19,52212,4532,941
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.567.825.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.52.116.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 136,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.353.911.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.277.26.7
– Net Position:136,231-175,85439,623
– Gross Longs:235,732406,48590,003
– Gross Shorts:99,501582,33950,380
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.123.742.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.221.8-27.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.137.315.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.559.513.4
– Net Position:46,384-49,9553,571
– Gross Longs:92,64584,12933,867
– Gross Shorts:46,261134,08430,296
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.017.765.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.815.1-28.3

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -97,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.871.113.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.031.716.3
– Net Position:-97,136105,867-8,731
– Gross Longs:37,014190,80434,930
– Gross Shorts:134,15084,93743,661
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.387.335.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.59.40.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.648.226.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.025.337.6
– Net Position:-5,32510,687-5,362
– Gross Longs:11,49422,50812,168
– Gross Shorts:16,81911,82117,530
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.959.141.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.513.1-37.3

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.154.817.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.339.319.5
– Net Position:-24,96329,461-4,498
– Gross Longs:45,761103,95932,462
– Gross Shorts:70,72474,49836,960
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.376.212.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.435.1-46.8

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.460.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.021.114.9
– Net Position:-83,53795,366-11,829
– Gross Longs:54,032146,17624,035
– Gross Shorts:137,56950,81035,864
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.490.123.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.034.2-32.8

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.860.35.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.629.711.0
– Net Position:-14,00017,291-3,291
– Gross Longs:16,84734,0682,947
– Gross Shorts:30,84716,7776,238
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.687.210.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.440.7-50.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 67,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.851.82.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.380.91.2
– Net Position:67,521-71,7324,211
– Gross Longs:100,298127,3727,084
– Gross Shorts:32,777199,1042,873
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.318.638.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.412.1-0.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.730.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.875.34.8
– Net Position:13,933-15,5691,636
– Gross Longs:20,47310,6813,318
– Gross Shorts:6,54026,2501,682
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.545.549.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.920.215.4

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.80.78.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.117.64.8
– Net Position:2,039-2,534495
– Gross Longs:11,9331051,218
– Gross Shorts:9,8942,639723
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.024.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:41.6-64.3-7.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (102,419 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (14,018 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (7,444 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2,598 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-7,692 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-51,645 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-53,150 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (-48,034 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,646,087100272,07296-267,0653-5,00785
FedFunds1,352,67234-146,89032160,10069-13,21065
2-Year3,661,94185-1,217,89041,114,53298103,35890
Long T-Bond1,343,05773-198,29220152,4176545,87582
10-Year4,718,78290-791,5356770,68510020,85078
5-Year5,415,83285-1,056,26815969,4138186,85593

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (96 percent) and the Fed Funds (32 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra Treasury Bonds (32 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (4 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (8 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (31.9 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (13.1 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (18.7 percent)
10-Year Bond (5.7 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (4.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (8.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (6.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (31.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (30.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (96.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (100.0 percent)

 

Ultra Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (27 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (6 percent) and the  are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-17 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-16 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the 2-Year Bonds (-5 percent) and the Fed Funds (2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (2.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-16.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (-5.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-3.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.0 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (-16.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (4.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-17.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-15.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (26.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (23.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (18.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (26.1 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 272,072 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -53,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 325,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.758.20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.160.70.3
– Net Position:272,072-267,065-5,007
– Gross Longs:1,882,3916,190,89728,482
– Gross Shorts:1,610,3196,457,96233,489
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.43.385.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-19.16.2

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -146,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 102,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,309 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.172.52.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.060.63.2
– Net Position:-146,890160,100-13,210
– Gross Longs:96,359980,02229,657
– Gross Shorts:243,249819,92242,867
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.969.165.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.2-1.7-5.2

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,217,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -48,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,169,856 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.382.37.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.651.84.2
– Net Position:-1,217,8901,114,532103,358
– Gross Longs:341,1983,013,032255,487
– Gross Shorts:1,559,0881,898,500152,129
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.997.690.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.35.33.4

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,056,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -51,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,004,623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.883.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.365.76.1
– Net Position:-1,056,268969,41386,855
– Gross Longs:424,1574,525,006414,910
– Gross Shorts:1,480,4253,555,593328,055
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.880.692.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-10.010.2

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -791,535 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,018 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -805,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.679.28.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.462.98.4
– Net Position:-791,535770,68520,850
– Gross Longs:454,8803,738,091416,866
– Gross Shorts:1,246,4152,967,406396,016
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.3 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.7100.078.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.317.9-0.7

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -177,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,444 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -184,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.676.810.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.661.615.3
– Net Position:-177,048268,877-91,829
– Gross Longs:206,1291,360,518179,479
– Gross Shorts:383,1771,091,641271,308
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.491.859.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-5.11.6

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -198,292 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -190,600 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.278.514.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.067.110.9
– Net Position:-198,292152,41745,875
– Gross Longs:83,1531,053,899191,920
– Gross Shorts:281,445901,482146,045
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.165.081.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.120.4-3.5

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -378,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,598 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -380,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.682.611.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.059.69.7
– Net Position:-378,271356,79221,479
– Gross Longs:86,2221,279,191171,723
– Gross Shorts:464,493922,399150,244
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.672.957.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.8-14.9-33.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was with Gold (14,734 contracts) and Copper (9,846 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-1,045 contracts) with Platinum (-436 contracts), Silver (-329 contracts) and Steel (-320 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold438,6728138,00638-158,2396320,23331
Silver128,2791726,80456-37,7084810,90427
Copper193,59737-6,770254,659752,11132
Palladium17,64480-11,021010,88810013350
Platinum68,7215314,60249-19,001544,39927

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (61 percent) and Silver (56 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Copper (25 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (37.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (31.3 percent)
Silver (56.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (57.0 percent)
Copper (25.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.5 percent)
Platinum (49.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.3 percent)
Palladium (0.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.1 percent)
Steel (61.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.2 percent)

Platinum & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (-2 percent) and Copper (-7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with the least negative scores.

Palladium (-18 percent), Gold (-16 percent) and Silver (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-15.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-30.8 percent)
Silver (-14.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-23.9 percent)
Copper (-6.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.3 percent)
Platinum (-2.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.6 percent)
Palladium (-17.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-11.0 percent)
Steel (-8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-11.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 138,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,272 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.825.410.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.361.55.9
– Net Position:138,006-158,23920,233
– Gross Longs:235,802111,45645,966
– Gross Shorts:97,796269,69525,733
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.862.930.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.715.4-10.9

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.931.218.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.060.610.1
– Net Position:26,804-37,70810,904
– Gross Longs:57,55840,05223,814
– Gross Shorts:30,75477,76012,910
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.548.226.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.414.5-10.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.740.77.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.238.36.6
– Net Position:-6,7704,6592,111
– Gross Longs:67,11878,86714,880
– Gross Shorts:73,88874,20812,769
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.075.531.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.97.1-4.0

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -436 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,038 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.825.011.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.652.74.8
– Net Position:14,602-19,0014,399
– Gross Longs:36,99117,2127,704
– Gross Shorts:22,38936,2133,305
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.354.227.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.03.0-7.4

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.764.09.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.22.39.1
– Net Position:-11,02110,888133
– Gross Longs:4,00811,2961,746
– Gross Shorts:15,0294081,613
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 127.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.049.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.913.039.4

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.587.63.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.665.71.9
– Net Position:-4,4424,220222
– Gross Longs:1,05816,848587
– Gross Shorts:5,50012,628365
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.238.350.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.07.617.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Stock Market Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by MSCI EAFE-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Nikkei 225

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as one out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Nikkei 225 with a small gain of 591 contracts.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were MSCI EAFE-Mini (-11,282 contracts) with the VIX (-8,940 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-4,833 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-2,612 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (-2,105 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (-1,724 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,259,16026-144,21143123,5675720,64446
Nikkei 22524,68440-14268-1,199291,34145
Nasdaq-Mini274,7014713,55085-5,69619-7,85439
DowJones-Mini93,93353-11,7244110,223551,50151
VIX402,06173-42,7268844,2659-1,53988
Nikkei 225 Yen66,338665,8605214,72351-20,58340

 


Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (88 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (85 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (68 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Russell-Mini (29 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (87.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (43.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (43.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (40.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (45.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (85.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (28.9 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (68.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (64.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (0.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (13.5 percent)

 

Nikkei 225 & Nasdaq-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nikkei 225 (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (14 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (13 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The DowJones-Mini (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-0.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.7 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-37.2 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.6 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-1.8 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-0.7 percent)
Nikkei USD (16.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (13.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-8.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-7.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -42,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.345.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.034.87.0
– Net Position:-42,72644,265-1,539
– Gross Longs:101,854184,11226,430
– Gross Shorts:144,580139,84727,969
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.89.188.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-1.513.7

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -144,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -142,106 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.975.011.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.269.510.5
– Net Position:-144,211123,56720,644
– Gross Longs:245,3781,693,540256,870
– Gross Shorts:389,5891,569,973236,226
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.256.945.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.2-12.71.4

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.757.315.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.246.513.9
– Net Position:-11,72410,2231,501
– Gross Longs:22,24553,86514,590
– Gross Shorts:33,96943,64213,089
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.754.651.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.220.315.4

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 13,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.056.213.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.058.316.7
– Net Position:13,550-5,696-7,854
– Gross Longs:74,040154,34638,035
– Gross Shorts:60,490160,04245,889
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.019.038.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-8.6-20.3

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -71,711 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.983.35.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.969.55.1
– Net Position:-71,71170,806905
– Gross Longs:50,897426,55426,844
– Gross Shorts:122,608355,74825,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.970.229.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.84.0-13.1

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.362.918.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.867.812.6
– Net Position:-142-1,1991,341
– Gross Longs:4,01515,5374,453
– Gross Shorts:4,15716,7363,112
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.228.645.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.0-18.36.8

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -38,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -11,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.190.72.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.981.91.5
– Net Position:-38,07934,3463,733
– Gross Longs:23,910354,1379,687
– Gross Shorts:61,989319,7915,954
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.035.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.513.0-18.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (26,991 contracts) with Cotton (11,560 contracts), Wheat (3,847 contracts), Cocoa (2,999 contracts) and Lean Hogs (1,659 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-18,522 contracts) with Corn (-9,819 contracts), Soybean Meal (-6,481 contracts), Soybeans (-4,833 contracts), Soybean Oil (-619 contracts) and Live Cattle (-976 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Sep-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,703,13027299,32240-308,997679,6750
Gold438,6728138,00638-158,2396320,23331
Silver128,2791726,80456-37,7084810,90427
Copper193,59737-6,770254,659752,11132
Palladium17,64480-11,021010,88810013350
Platinum68,7215314,60249-19,001544,39927
Natural Gas1,169,72543-118,2792590,7167627,56345
Brent129,4177-44,6822444,2268345615
Heating Oil319,4914438,73796-67,126028,38997
Soybeans716,2003187,32923-68,84373-18,48660
Corn1,229,7005-45,632379,96594-34,33384
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar966,99263235,42174-289,8052154,38473
Wheat376,77053-46,4103444,160642,25078

 


Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (100 percent) and Sugar (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (72 percent), Soybean Meal (53 percent) and Soybean Oil (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Corn (3 percent) and Soybeans (23 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Lean Hogs (25 percent) and the Wheat (34 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (2.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.3 percent)
Sugar (74.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (64.6 percent)
Coffee (36.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (61.8 percent)
Soybeans (23.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (50.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (53.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (56.7 percent)
Live Cattle (72.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (73.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (24.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.3 percent)
Cotton (51.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (42.5 percent)
Cocoa (100.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (96.9 percent)
Wheat (33.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (31.1 percent)

 

Cotton & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Cotton (14 percent) and Cocoa (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Sugar (6 percent), Soybean Oil (1 percent) and Lean Hogs (-3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Corn (-19 percent), Soybeans (-19 percent) and Wheat (-18 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.1 percent)
Sugar (5.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.3 percent)
Coffee (-23.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.0 percent)
Soybeans (-18.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (1.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-7.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.1 percent)
Live Cattle (-9.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-18.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-2.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-3.1 percent)
Cotton (13.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.8 percent)
Cocoa (8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (7.0 percent)
Wheat (-18.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-8.2 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -45,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.648.910.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.342.413.0
– Net Position:-45,63279,965-34,333
– Gross Longs:278,322601,098125,742
– Gross Shorts:323,954521,133160,075
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.794.283.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.014.052.2

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 235,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 26,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 208,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.842.910.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.572.94.6
– Net Position:235,421-289,80554,384
– Gross Longs:317,572415,11998,808
– Gross Shorts:82,151704,92444,424
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.121.273.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.5-11.730.0

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 8,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.447.03.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.751.43.9
– Net Position:8,495-8,052-443
– Gross Longs:42,19084,6066,662
– Gross Shorts:33,69592,6587,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.167.97.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.124.0-19.8

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 87,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,833 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.551.46.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.461.09.4
– Net Position:87,329-68,843-18,486
– Gross Longs:161,468368,02448,992
– Gross Shorts:74,139436,86767,478
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.573.059.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.716.6-0.9

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 55,935 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,554 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.350.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.065.25.2
– Net Position:55,935-66,48310,548
– Gross Longs:105,904229,77534,049
– Gross Shorts:49,969296,25823,501
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.648.252.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.1-0.1-6.1

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 92,750 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,231 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.139.19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.863.85.6
– Net Position:92,750-112,19019,440
– Gross Longs:109,916178,23044,988
– Gross Shorts:17,166290,42025,548
– Long to Short Ratio:6.4 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.147.142.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.69.1-11.4

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -976 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,465 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.628.59.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.252.712.3
– Net Position:86,489-76,291-10,198
– Gross Longs:134,20589,58528,644
– Gross Shorts:47,716165,87638,842
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.229.532.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.57.116.6

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,132 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,791 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.339.49.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.434.711.1
– Net Position:-6,1329,659-3,527
– Gross Longs:63,71680,13319,036
– Gross Shorts:69,84870,47422,563
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.679.067.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.67.3-22.8

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,850 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.841.28.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.270.43.5
– Net Position:56,410-66,78610,376
– Gross Longs:91,09394,30418,327
– Gross Shorts:34,683161,0907,951
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.245.178.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-13.710.4

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 86,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.525.94.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.757.03.2
– Net Position:86,220-90,2123,992
– Gross Longs:137,72075,13613,139
– Gross Shorts:51,500165,3489,147
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.036.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-9.15.5

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -46,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,257 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.234.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.522.99.3
– Net Position:-46,41044,1602,250
– Gross Longs:109,981130,57837,412
– Gross Shorts:156,39186,41835,162
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.864.278.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.413.435.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Cocoa, MSCI EAFE lead Bullish & Bearish Bets

By InvestMacro
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin


The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 41.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,039 net contracts this week with a change of 532 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 8.7 this week. The speculator position registered 86,220 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 2,999 contracts in speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 18.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 272,072 net contracts this week with a change of -53,150 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 25.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 38,737 net contracts this week with a change of -715 contracts in the speculator bets.


British Pound


The British Pound speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level sits at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.8 this week.

The speculator position was 46,384 net contracts this week with a change of -2,017 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI


The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,079 net contracts this week with a change of -11,282 contracts in the speculator bets.


Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.9 this week. The speculator position was -11,021 net contracts this week with a change of -1,045 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


The Corn speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Corn speculator level resides at a 2.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -45,632 net contracts this week with a change of -9,819 contracts in the speculator bets.


2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 3.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,217,890 net contracts this week with a change of -48,034 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


10-Year Note


Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 5.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.3 this week. The speculator position was -791,535 net contracts this week with a change of 14,018 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound, near 16-Year Highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (10,052 contracts) with the British Pound (3,968 contracts), US Dollar Index (2,367 contracts), Japanese Yen (2,219 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,445 contracts) and Bitcoin (437 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,788 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-10,205 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,564 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,068 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,628 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s rebound and the overall strength in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions rose this week by almost +4,000 contracts and turned around a three-week streak of declines.

The Sterling speculative level has been on the move higher recently and is at its strongest levels in years with the average contract level of the past ten weeks right around +50,000 contracts. On July 18th, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts) ascended to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years.

The Pound’s positioning has been helped out by continued high inflation in the United Kingdom which brings forecasts for higher interest rates. The UK consumer inflation numbers for July came in at 6.8 percent with a core inflation reading of 6.9 percent. The Bank of England has boosted the interest rate to combat inflation for fourteen consecutive meetings and brought the rate to 5.25 percent at it’s last meeting which is the highest since 2008. The BOE may need to further push the rate higher to bring inflation back down to reasonable levels which in turn can provide the UK currency with an interest rate differential advantage against other currencies.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in an uptrend over recent months with the exchange rate hitting over 1.3000 in July. Since that 2023 high, the Sterling has cooled off some but remains over the psychologically significant 1.2500 exchange rate.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-15-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index26,95414,99133-6,048661,05723
EUR760,23369159,86380-205,2842145,42151
GBP215,3404650,98891-60,188129,20076
JPY247,95475-80,9612290,49780-9,53634
CHF42,79445-4,007464,20049-19357
CAD157,82732-11,4114413,76966-2,35818
AUD204,45891-53,3973565,25868-11,86124
NZD46,78153-2,436474,96958-2,53320
MXN228,9844882,02389-85,227113,20432
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL42,0312823,47566-25,216341,74158
Bitcoin15,43273-7126514069829

 


Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (91 percent), the Mexican Peso (89 percent) and the EuroFX (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent) and Bitcoin (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (33 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (35 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (33.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (80.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (91.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (88.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (47.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.4 percent)
Bitcoin (64.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.9 percent)

 

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (7 percent) and the British Pound (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-15 percent), Brazilian Real (-10 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-15.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-20.6 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (1.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-9.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.5 percent)
Bitcoin (23.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.85.816.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.328.212.4
– Net Position:4,991-6,0481,057
– Gross Longs:19,6171,5564,404
– Gross Shorts:14,6267,6043,347
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.366.123.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.616.7-14.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.655.412.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.682.46.0
– Net Position:159,863-205,28445,421
– Gross Longs:232,466420,94290,895
– Gross Shorts:72,603626,22645,474
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.021.151.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.3-1.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.036.016.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.463.911.8
– Net Position:50,988-60,1889,200
– Gross Longs:90,54177,49634,690
– Gross Shorts:39,553137,68425,490
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.212.076.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.51.9-8.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -80,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.070.813.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.734.317.6
– Net Position:-80,96190,497-9,536
– Gross Longs:34,789175,63634,192
– Gross Shorts:115,75085,13943,728
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.979.834.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-17.3-2.9

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.344.035.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.734.136.1
– Net Position:-4,0074,200-193
– Gross Longs:8,69318,81215,262
– Gross Shorts:12,70014,61215,455
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.549.356.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.6-5.913.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.554.319.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.745.620.8
– Net Position:-11,41113,769-2,358
– Gross Longs:37,11285,77430,496
– Gross Shorts:48,52372,00532,854
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.965.517.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.922.2-37.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.653.410.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.721.415.8
– Net Position:-53,39765,258-11,861
– Gross Longs:68,623109,11020,392
– Gross Shorts:122,02043,85232,253
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.367.623.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.210.4-12.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.846.66.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.036.011.7
– Net Position:-2,4364,969-2,533
– Gross Longs:21,91021,7952,942
– Gross Shorts:24,34616,8265,475
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.058.219.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.98.2-2.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 82,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.847.43.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.984.62.2
– Net Position:82,023-85,2273,204
– Gross Longs:109,340108,5968,197
– Gross Shorts:27,317193,8234,993
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.210.631.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.18.4-6.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.823.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.083.94.8
– Net Position:23,475-25,2161,741
– Gross Longs:27,67610,0653,774
– Gross Shorts:4,20135,2812,033
– Long to Short Ratio:6.6 to 10.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.633.657.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.72.743.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.63.98.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:82.33.83.9
– Net Position:-71214698
– Gross Longs:11,9816021,299
– Gross Shorts:12,693588601
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.556.928.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.8-43.1-5.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Cocoa, GBP, US Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on August 15th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX


The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 21.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -25,985 net contracts this week with a change of 18,419 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 97.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 5.1 this week. The speculator position registered 77,125 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -2,377 contracts in speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level resides at a 91.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 0.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 50,988 net contracts this week with a change of 3,968 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is at a 89.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -8.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 82,023 net contracts this week with a change of -1,628 contracts in the speculator bets.


Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level sits at a 85.9 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.5 this week.

The speculator position was 31,677 net contracts this week with a change of 796 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,117,392 net contracts this week with a change of -8,266 contracts in the speculator bets.


Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds


The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 4.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.1 this week. The speculator position was -445,497 net contracts this week with a change of -409 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 4.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,191,295 net contracts this week with a change of 39,012 contracts in the speculator bets.


Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Palladium speculator level is at a 5.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.0 this week. The speculator position was -9,423 net contracts this week with a change of 769 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 5.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.0 this week. The speculator position was -26,966 net contracts this week with a change of -52,693 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium with a weekly rise of 769 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,849 contracts) with Copper (-15,641 contracts), Silver (-5,463 contracts), Platinum (-2,991 contracts) and Steel (-403 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-15-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold433,6115121,13630-141,9306920,79432
Silver138,215307,86129-23,2646615,40352
Copper224,21562-25,698920,665895,03350
Palladium20,511100-9,42369,72296-29924
Platinum84,557100116-5,866815,86547

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (63 percent) and Gold (30 percent) lead the metals markets this week.  comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent), Copper (9 percent) and Platinum (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (30.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (40.0 percent)
Silver (29.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (37.3 percent)
Copper (8.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.2 percent)
Platinum (15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (22.5 percent)
Palladium (5.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.1 percent)

 

Platinum & Gold top the negative 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all the metals markets have lower six-week trends scores.

Platinum (-19 percent), Gold (-18 percent, Copper (-15 percent) and Silver (-15 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-18.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.9 percent)
Silver (-14.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.2 percent)
Copper (-14.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.2 percent)
Platinum (-18.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-21.2 percent)
Palladium (-11.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-20.6 percent)
Steel (-9.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-5.3 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 121,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -21,849 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.826.810.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.859.55.4
– Net Position:121,136-141,93020,794
– Gross Longs:233,078116,06244,337
– Gross Shorts:111,942257,99223,543
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.469.232.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.516.5-2.1

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,463 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.734.220.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.051.09.1
– Net Position:7,861-23,26415,403
– Gross Longs:50,69247,24028,028
– Gross Shorts:42,83170,50412,625
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.565.752.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.57.621.4

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -25,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.145.48.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.536.25.9
– Net Position:-25,69820,6655,033
– Gross Longs:67,401101,82718,180
– Gross Shorts:93,09981,16213,147
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.688.750.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.611.618.2

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.328.511.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.335.44.6
– Net Position:1-5,8665,865
– Gross Longs:44,23324,0759,751
– Gross Shorts:44,23229,9413,886
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.681.446.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.615.94.8

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 769 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.758.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.711.18.7
– Net Position:-9,4239,722-299
– Gross Longs:4,04812,0061,482
– Gross Shorts:13,4712,2841,781
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.596.123.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.09.210.2

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,524 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,121 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.387.41.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.870.71.4
– Net Position:-3,5243,558-34
– Gross Longs:1,54718,597274
– Gross Shorts:5,07115,039308
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.037.415.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.810.5-24.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were mixed this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (58,656 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (39,012 contracts), US Treasury Bonds (22,821 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (12,562 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-50,877 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (-55,202 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-8,266 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-409 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-15-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months10,263,811984,5438110,84519-15,38879
FedFunds1,532,02549-244,21814257,37987-13,16165
2-Year3,820,729100-1,117,3922991,94195125,451100
Long T-Bond1,370,326100-176,73427137,7036039,03177
10-Year4,857,42298-746,92810718,3049628,62480
5-Year5,768,718100-1,191,29551,110,1959281,100100

 


Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (81 percent) leads the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (27 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (2 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (4 percent), the 5-Year Bonds (5 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (10 percent), Fed Funds (14.0 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
vs Fed Funds previous week (23.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (2.3 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (3.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (10.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (15.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (16.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (27.1 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (19.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.4 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (4.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (80.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (76.7 percent)

 

10-Year Bonds & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 10-Year Bonds (3 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Fed Funds (-25 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 5-Year Bonds (-12 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-25.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-19.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (-4.8 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-7.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-17.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (3.3 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (10.6 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-27.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (2.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-8.6 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-16.2 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-23.3 percent)


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 4,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 58,656 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.759.80.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.759.70.4
– Net Position:4,54310,845-15,388
– Gross Longs:1,716,3926,136,20626,291
– Gross Shorts:1,711,8496,125,36141,679
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.719.279.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.217.1-4.9

 


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -244,218 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -50,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -193,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.378.32.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.361.52.9
– Net Position:-244,218257,379-13,161
– Gross Longs:35,9301,200,17631,331
– Gross Shorts:280,148942,79744,492
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.086.865.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.125.5-7.8

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,117,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,109,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.081.37.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.255.34.1
– Net Position:-1,117,392991,941125,451
– Gross Longs:380,2653,105,026282,436
– Gross Shorts:1,497,6572,113,085156,985
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.394.6100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.81.915.5

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,191,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 39,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,230,307 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.983.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.564.05.7
– Net Position:-1,191,2951,110,19581,100
– Gross Longs:453,0254,804,142411,812
– Gross Shorts:1,644,3203,693,947330,712
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.992.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.96.720.7

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -746,928 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -55,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.278.78.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.663.98.3
– Net Position:-746,928718,30428,624
– Gross Longs:495,2103,822,746430,877
– Gross Shorts:1,242,1383,104,442402,253
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.095.779.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.3-0.2-7.0

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -137,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -149,951 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.576.79.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.963.914.4
– Net Position:-137,389235,155-97,766
– Gross Longs:230,1631,416,246168,833
– Gross Shorts:367,5521,181,091266,599
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.484.555.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.58.1-24.0

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -176,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -199,555 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.975.914.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.865.911.4
– Net Position:-176,734137,70339,031
– Gross Longs:94,3371,040,666195,617
– Gross Shorts:271,071902,963156,586
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.159.776.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.011.04.3

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -445,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -445,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.579.911.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.055.28.2
– Net Position:-445,497401,24344,254
– Gross Longs:89,2271,296,276177,740
– Gross Shorts:534,724895,033133,486
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.494.579.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.13.3-11.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.