COT Updates

Archive for COT Updates – Page 43

Commitment of Traders Data – Weekly Updates for the Futures Markets

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (179,262 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (119,278 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75,655 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (45,643 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (4,382 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-15,127 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-10,331 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-4,866 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Bonds – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the 10-Year Bonds (6 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (15 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (40.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.9 percent)
5-Year Bond (19.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (1.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (18.9 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (29.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (34.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (57.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (62.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (98.3 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (88.7 percent)

5-Year Bonds & Ultra 10-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the 5-Year Bonds (15 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The Fed Funds (14 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-19 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-10 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (14.4 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (3.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (3.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (9.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (14.6 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (11.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (-9.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-16.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (15.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-2.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-18.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (6.5 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (8.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (8.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (0.3 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 685,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 179,262 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 506,101 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	50.9	0.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	57.8	0.4
– Net Position:	685,363	-674,767	-10,596
– Gross Longs:	1,854,270	5,002,614	31,668
– Gross Shorts:	1,168,907	5,677,381	42,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.3	2.1	82.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.4	-7.9	-4.8

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -136,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,866 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -131,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	69.6	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	60.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-136,193	142,645	-6,452
– Gross Longs:	165,155	1,131,777	38,635
– Gross Shorts:	301,348	989,132	45,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.5	60.0	78.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.4	-16.5	20.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,238,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,382 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,243,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.2	80.4	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.9	51.0	3.4
– Net Position:	-1,238,657	1,109,623	129,034
– Gross Longs:	421,993	3,038,980	256,226
– Gross Shorts:	1,660,650	1,929,357	127,192
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.2	83.7	93.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-2.3	-7.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,170,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 119,278 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,289,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	83.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	66.1	4.8
– Net Position:	-1,170,182	1,008,597	161,585
– Gross Longs:	443,301	4,841,923	438,210
– Gross Shorts:	1,613,483	3,833,326	276,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.1	76.1	97.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-17.8	3.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -787,020 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 45,643 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -832,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.1	79.4	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.0	63.8	7.6
– Net Position:	-787,020	726,488	60,532
– Gross Longs:	469,964	3,695,263	414,385
– Gross Shorts:	1,256,984	2,968,775	353,853
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.1	92.5	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	12.5	1.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,799 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 75,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -249,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	73.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	62.0	13.0
– Net Position:	-173,799	244,692	-70,893
– Gross Longs:	324,787	1,545,552	202,935
– Gross Shorts:	498,586	1,300,860	273,828
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.9	80.2	71.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-16.4	-1.0

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -155,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -15,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -140,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	73.6	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.0	67.0	9.5
– Net Position:	-155,752	96,151	59,601
– Gross Longs:	178,714	1,068,735	197,999
– Gross Shorts:	334,466	972,584	138,398
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.2	46.9	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.7	16.6	6.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -313,195 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,331 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -302,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.2	80.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.9	63.3	8.6
– Net Position:	-313,195	290,221	22,974
– Gross Longs:	154,339	1,352,257	167,038
– Gross Shorts:	467,534	1,062,036	144,064
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.9	38.3	58.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.5	-14.7	12.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Jan

Speculator Extremes: DowJones & Soybeans lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 79.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 24,079 net contracts this week with a gain of 4,537 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 44.1 this week. The speculator position registered 111,283 net contracts this week with a weekly increase of 30,024 contracts in speculator bets.

Russell 2000 Mini

The Russell 2000 Mini speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Russell 2000 Mini speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 54.3 this week. The overall speculator position was 21,012 net contracts this week with a rise of 21,933 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 8.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 685,363 net contracts this week with a boost of 179,262 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nasdaq-Mini

The Nasdaq speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level sits at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 45.4 this week.

The speculator position was 36,776 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,291 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -30.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,049 net contracts this week with a drop of -16,121 contracts in the speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -2.2 this week. The speculator position was -173,033 net contracts this week with a decrease of -26,305 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -74.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,490 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -29,428 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 2.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.5 this week. The speculator position was -29,208 net contracts this week with a gain of 3,279 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

Finally, the Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 4.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.8 this week. The speculator position was 23,367 net contracts this week with a dip of -7,286 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

13 Jan

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by S&P500 & Russell

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini with a strong weekly gain by 97,039 contracts. Coming in next was the Russell-Mini (21,933 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (7,603 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (4,537 contracts), the VIX (823 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (762 contracts) also recording positive weekly gains.

The only market with a drop in speculator bets was the Nasdaq-Mini with a decline by -2,291 contracts on the week.

Stock Markets – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (100 percent) and the Russell-Mini (100 percent) lead the stock markets this week at their top levels of the past three years. The Nasdaq-Mini (96 percent) and VIX (80 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (36 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the S&P500-Mini (47 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (79.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (79.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (47.3 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (32.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (100.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (92.6 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (99.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (100.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (84.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (47.7 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (36.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (28.4 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Russell-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (80 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Russell-Mini (54 percent), the Nasdaq-Mini (45 percent) and the MSCI EAFE-Mini (34 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The S&P500-Mini (-8 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Nikkei USD (-2 percent) coming in as the next market with a lower trend score.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (2.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (1.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-7.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-20.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (79.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (88.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (45.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (52.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (54.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (40.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (-2.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-8.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (22.3 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week was a net position of -44,169 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 823 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,992 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	48.3	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.1	33.9	9.3
– Net Position:	-44,169	51,245	-7,076
– Gross Longs:	69,775	171,526	25,924
– Gross Shorts:	113,944	120,281	33,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.8	21.2	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.3	1.7	-30.8

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -117,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 97,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -214,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	72.5	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	71.8	8.0
– Net Position:	-117,049	15,495	101,554
– Gross Longs:	272,247	1,602,234	278,896
– Gross Shorts:	389,296	1,586,739	177,342
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.3	42.0	77.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	-0.9	23.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,079 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,537 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,542 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.8	47.8	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	72.4	12.5
– Net Position:	24,079	-25,433	1,354
– Gross Longs:	36,987	49,419	14,256
– Gross Shorts:	12,908	74,852	12,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	79.6	-80.7	30.1

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 36,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	54.2	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	69.6	13.0
– Net Position:	36,776	-42,601	5,825
– Gross Longs:	83,021	150,591	42,040
– Gross Shorts:	46,245	193,192	36,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	5.2	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	45.4	-35.0	6.0

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of 21,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 21,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -921 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.0	74.3	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	80.7	3.8
– Net Position:	21,012	-31,976	10,964
– Gross Longs:	94,710	370,642	30,111
– Gross Shorts:	73,698	402,618	19,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	65.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	54.3	-53.9	25.7

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.7	64.4	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.8	53.3	17.9
– Net Position:	-2,658	1,724	934
– Gross Longs:	1,811	9,991	3,702
– Gross Shorts:	4,469	8,267	2,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.7	46.4	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	1.3	1.3

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week was a net position of -29,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	89.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	83.6	2.2
– Net Position:	-29,126	22,977	6,149
– Gross Longs:	30,146	379,373	15,395
– Gross Shorts:	59,272	356,396	9,246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.3	60.6	47.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	34.1	-35.1	6.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jan

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Meal & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (3,950 contracts) with Soybean Oil (3,279 contracts), Coffee (2,160 contracts), Cotton (261 contracts) and Wheat (227 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-29,428 contracts), Corn (-26,305 contracts), Soybeans (-16,121 contracts) Sugar (-5,867 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,286 contracts) and Cocoa (-73 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities – Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

On the downside there are a number of markets at extreme lows. Soybean Meal (0 percent), Corn (0 percent), Soybeans (0 percent), Soybean Oil (3 percent), Live Cattle (4 percent), Lean Hogs (10 percent), Sugar (16 percent) and Cotton (13 percent) all come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (0.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (3.6 percent)
Sugar (15.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (17.7 percent)
Coffee (74.2 percent) vs Coffee previous week (72.0 percent)
Soybeans (0.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (5.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (2.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (0.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (0.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (16.4 percent)
Live Cattle (4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (12.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (6.3 percent)
Cotton (13.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.0 percent)
Cocoa (80.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (80.3 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (44.2 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (44 percent) and Coffee (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Lean Hogs (1 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-74 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-49 percent), Soybeans (-31 percent) and Soybean Oil (-27 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-2.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-3.2 percent)
Sugar (-49.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-53.3 percent)
Coffee (15.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.4 percent)
Soybeans (-30.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-33.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (-26.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-33.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-74.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-62.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-17.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-8.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-9.5 percent)
Cotton (-0.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.2 percent)
Cocoa (-2.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.0 percent)
Wheat (44.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -173,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,305 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -146,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.7	46.4	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.9	32.7	11.9
– Net Position:	-173,033	194,021	-20,988
– Gross Longs:	263,111	654,962	146,167
– Gross Shorts:	436,144	460,941	167,155
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	2.7	-4.7

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.4	57.1	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.9	67.1	7.5
– Net Position:	68,958	-81,593	12,635
– Gross Longs:	173,488	463,071	73,874
– Gross Shorts:	104,530	544,664	61,239
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.5	84.4	18.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.3	51.4	-42.0

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 45,588 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.2	36.4	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.5	58.1	3.6
– Net Position:	45,588	-47,708	2,120
– Gross Longs:	73,163	80,276	10,075
– Gross Shorts:	27,575	127,984	7,955
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	28.4	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-15.2	3.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -38,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -16,121 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,928 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	57.5	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	49.3	10.0
– Net Position:	-38,049	53,620	-15,571
– Gross Longs:	99,237	378,409	50,048
– Gross Shorts:	137,286	324,789	65,619
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.7	27.8	11.4

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -29,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,487 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	50.5	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.3	45.1	5.5
– Net Position:	-29,208	27,654	1,554
– Gross Longs:	95,344	258,646	29,768
– Gross Shorts:	124,552	230,992	28,214
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.8	96.7	19.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.5	25.6	-13.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	48.2	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	50.7	7.2
– Net Position:	-2,490	-10,834	13,324
– Gross Longs:	90,725	210,311	44,758
– Gross Shorts:	93,215	221,145	31,434
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	15.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-74.1	75.1	-27.1

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	40.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	49.3	12.3
– Net Position:	23,367	-23,263	-104
– Gross Longs:	70,653	109,803	33,163
– Gross Shorts:	47,286	133,066	33,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.8	15.9	18.3

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -24,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,950 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	38.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.6	22.5	11.4
– Net Position:	-24,496	29,637	-5,141
– Gross Longs:	55,979	72,177	16,359
– Gross Shorts:	80,475	42,540	21,500
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.5	95.7	60.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.6	2.2	-14.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 5,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,689 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.4	45.8	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.5	48.5	6.4
– Net Position:	5,950	-5,513	-437
– Gross Longs:	57,617	92,979	12,617
– Gross Shorts:	51,667	98,492	13,054
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.2	86.6	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	-0.9	9.2

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 68,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,954 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.6	26.6	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	47.8	5.4
– Net Position:	68,881	-67,423	-1,458
– Gross Longs:	119,536	84,761	15,778
– Gross Shorts:	50,655	152,184	17,236
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	24.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	6.4	-30.5

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.8	37.1	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.8	25.7	10.2
– Net Position:	-33,390	42,432	-9,042
– Gross Longs:	107,680	138,560	29,116
– Gross Shorts:	141,070	96,128	38,158
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.3	58.3	26.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	44.3	-41.7	-33.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

24 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Steel, DowJones, Soybeans & Bonds lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 19th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Steel speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 5.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 130 net contracts this week with a rise by 615 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

DowJones Mini

The DowJones Mini speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is now at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 95.5 this week. The speculator position registered 7,123 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,672 contracts in speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 10.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 577,707 net contracts this week with a drop of -140,519 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is at a 91.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,832 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,832 contracts in the speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level sits at a 90.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 28.8 this week.

The speculator position was 84,001 net contracts this week with a boost by 9,876 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Soybeans

The Soybeans speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 1,998 net contracts this week with a drop of -15,541 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 2.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.2 this week. The speculator position was -265,218 net contracts this week with an increase by 11,258 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Corn speculator level resides at a 4.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -127,570 net contracts this week with a decrease of -26,355 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 5.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 2.2 this week. The speculator position was -1,388,222 net contracts this week with a decline of -48,102 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

Finally, the Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 8.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.2 this week. The speculator position was -16,356 net contracts this week with a decrease of -10,552 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

17 Dec

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,825 contracts) with the British Pound (9,916 contracts), the Australian Dollar (5,341 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,378 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,962 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (669 contracts) Bitcoin (183 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,033 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,580 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,343 contracts).

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was a sharp boost in sentiment for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions rose strongly this week by over +23,000 net contracts and gained for a second straight week as well as for the third time in four weeks. Over these past four weeks, the yen speculator bets now have improved by a total of +49,118 contracts.

This turn in sentiment has taken the overall bearish net positioning for speculators down to a current level of -81,131 contracts, marking the least bearish level since August.

The yen exchange rate continued to improve as well this week versus the US Dollar. The USDJPY currency pair fell for a fifth consecutive week this week (a lower USDJPY exchange rate means USD weakness and JPY strength) and closed at the 142.13 level. The USDJPY is off it’s most recent high in November by about 7 percent.

Helping the yen’s fortunes lately has been a general speculation that the Bank of Japan will look to end its negative interest rate policy sometime in the coming new year. Also, on the US Dollar side, this is combined with the US Federal Reserve’s dovish interest rate hold last week that has lent credence to the outlook that US interest rates will be on hold or even possibly be reduced over 2024.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,345	38	17,601	54	-18,032	47	431	15
EUR	792,149	84	147,327	83	-182,357	21	35,030	35
GBP	243,677	63	21,581	71	-20,101	34	-1,480	55
JPY	257,581	80	-81,131	27	79,527	74	1,604	57
CHF	65,186	100	-14,474	17	19,313	75	-4,839	44
CAD	213,873	71	-55,245	13	61,193	90	-5,948	10
AUD	208,927	64	-52,340	41	54,868	58	-2,528	46
NZD	58,308	77	-13,488	20	13,109	75	379	54
MXN	269,074	62	74,125	84	-79,064	14	4,939	43
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	68,646	54	46,664	95	-48,955	5	2,291	56
Bitcoin	21,211	89	-2,067	35	1,188	0	879	33

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent), the Mexican Peso (84 percent) and the EuroFX (83 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.2 percent)
EuroFX (83.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (63.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (99.7 percent)
Bitcoin (35.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (48 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (26 percent), the Mexican Peso (26 percent) and the Australian Dollar (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-5 percent), Bitcoin (-5 percent), the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (26.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (28.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-7.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (26.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (58.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-4.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-27.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.0	18.6	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	62.2	6.5
– Net Position:	17,601	-18,032	431
– Gross Longs:	28,100	7,677	3,116
– Gross Shorts:	10,499	25,709	2,685
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.3	47.1	14.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	3.3	-8.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 147,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 152,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	54.7	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	77.7	8.2
– Net Position:	147,327	-182,357	35,030
– Gross Longs:	231,837	433,209	100,250
– Gross Shorts:	84,510	615,566	65,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.1	20.9	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.4	-27.4	18.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	47.4	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	55.7	18.9
– Net Position:	21,581	-20,101	-1,480
– Gross Longs:	72,011	115,620	44,638
– Gross Shorts:	50,430	135,721	46,118
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.8	34.4	55.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.1	-30.4	24.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	67.1	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.5	36.2	14.4
– Net Position:	-81,131	79,527	1,604
– Gross Longs:	28,226	172,756	38,804
– Gross Shorts:	109,357	93,229	37,200
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.2	74.0	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.6	-13.6	10.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.1	65.2	19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	35.6	27.0
– Net Position:	-14,474	19,313	-4,839
– Gross Longs:	3,970	42,489	12,788
– Gross Shorts:	18,444	23,176	17,627
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	74.5	43.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-12.1	22.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -55,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.1	71.9	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.9	43.2	16.1
– Net Position:	-55,245	61,193	-5,948
– Gross Longs:	19,457	153,678	28,390
– Gross Shorts:	74,702	92,485	34,338
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.7	89.7	9.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	3.2	1.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	67.1	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.9	40.8	11.9
– Net Position:	-52,340	54,868	-2,528
– Gross Longs:	30,967	140,172	22,411
– Gross Shorts:	83,307	85,304	24,939
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.8	58.4	46.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.8	-23.8	21.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	59.3	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	36.8	7.1
– Net Position:	-13,488	13,109	379
– Gross Longs:	13,273	34,588	4,515
– Gross Shorts:	26,761	21,479	4,136
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	74.6	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-7.1	45.2

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 74,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	49.7	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	79.1	0.7
– Net Position:	74,125	-79,064	4,939
– Gross Longs:	114,396	133,847	6,875
– Gross Shorts:	40,271	212,911	1,936
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.4	14.2	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.1	-26.8	15.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.3	20.9	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.3	92.3	2.2
– Net Position:	46,664	-48,955	2,291
– Gross Longs:	50,305	14,375	3,767
– Gross Shorts:	3,641	63,330	1,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.0	4.5	55.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	48.4	-47.8	5.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.1	7.9	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.8	2.3	3.7
– Net Position:	-2,067	1,188	879
– Gross Longs:	15,714	1,684	1,654
– Gross Shorts:	17,781	496	775
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	94.9	32.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.8	7.3	0.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

17 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Platinum & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,576 contracts) with Palladium (614 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-15,311 contracts), Silver (-7,845 contracts), Copper (-2,010 contracts) and Steel (-318 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	469,939	22	188,233	60	-212,808	42	24,575	46
Silver	134,281	25	28,458	59	-47,496	36	19,038	72
Copper	176,034	23	-4,004	29	5,131	76	-1,127	11
Palladium	21,309	72	-10,638	6	10,920	97	-282	25
Platinum	74,004	62	7,709	33	-11,713	69	4,004	22

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (98 percent) and Gold (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (6 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (59.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.7 percent)
Silver (58.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.1 percent)
Copper (28.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (30.3 percent)
Platinum (33.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (27.4 percent)
Palladium (5.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.6 percent)
Steel (97.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (98.8 percent)

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (12 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-7 percent) and Palladium (-3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (23.8 percent)
Silver (11.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (11.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.9 percent)
Platinum (-7.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.0 percent)
Palladium (-2.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-0.1 percent)
Steel (8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (20.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 188,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 203,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.2	22.5	9.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	67.8	4.7
– Net Position:	188,233	-212,808	24,575
– Gross Longs:	273,536	105,710	46,457
– Gross Shorts:	85,303	318,518	21,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.9	41.8	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.9	-11.6	14.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	28.2	22.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	63.6	8.6
– Net Position:	28,458	-47,496	19,038
– Gross Longs:	55,684	37,850	30,602
– Gross Shorts:	27,226	85,346	11,564
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	36.4	72.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-17.4	34.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.3	38.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.6	36.0	8.3
– Net Position:	-4,004	5,131	-1,127
– Gross Longs:	65,630	68,476	13,473
– Gross Shorts:	69,634	63,345	14,600
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.5	75.9	11.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-11.0	0.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	28.1	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	43.9	4.9
– Net Position:	7,709	-11,713	4,004
– Gross Longs:	36,789	20,804	7,620
– Gross Shorts:	29,080	32,517	3,616
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.4	69.3	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.2	5.1	8.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.7	59.7	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.7	8.4	9.1
– Net Position:	-10,638	10,920	-282
– Gross Longs:	5,270	12,719	1,653
– Gross Shorts:	15,908	1,799	1,935
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	7.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	96.6	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	4.8	-22.4

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.5	69.7	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	69.6	0.6
– Net Position:	-485	23	462
– Gross Longs:	4,671	13,862	587
– Gross Shorts:	5,156	13,839	125
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.6	1.3	82.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-9.9	43.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Metals

17 Dec

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 2-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (206,446 contracts) with the 2-Year Bonds (116,542 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (89,307 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (79,525 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (23,682 contracts) recording strong positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-8,621 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-6,180 contracts) and the Fed Funds (-6,043 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
SOFR-3-Months	11,214,870	100	718,226	100	-715,081	0	-3,145	86
FedFunds	1,493,915	45	-159,197	35	172,723	66	-13,526	64
2-Year	3,950,417	89	-1,359,474	7	1,223,113	92	136,361	96
Long T-Bond	1,308,164	62	-136,259	36	100,575	49	35,684	74
10-Year	4,475,716	73	-556,931	28	520,684	68	36,247	81
5-Year	5,737,034	85	-1,340,120	8	1,206,871	91	133,249	96

Strength Scores led by SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) and the 5-Year Bonds (8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (34.5 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (35.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (7.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (8.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.5 percent)
10-Year Bond (28.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (20.7 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.0 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (1.6 percent)
US Treasury Bond (36.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (38.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (66.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (56.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (100.0 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (89.0 percent)

SOFR 3-Months & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 3-Months (25 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The US Treasury Bonds (7 percent) and the are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The 5-Year Bonds (-10 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (11.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.9 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (-9.5 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-26.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (6.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-7.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-4.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-3.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (6.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (25.1 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (12.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 718,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 206,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 511,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.8	52.9	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.4	59.2	0.3
– Net Position:	718,226	-715,081	-3,145
– Gross Longs:	2,328,164	5,929,211	26,487
– Gross Shorts:	1,609,938	6,644,292	29,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	86.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.1	-25.0	-1.7

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -159,197 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153,154 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	75.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	64.3	2.9
– Net Position:	-159,197	172,723	-13,526
– Gross Longs:	129,934	1,133,265	30,437
– Gross Shorts:	289,131	960,542	43,963
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	66.4	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.0	-6.2	20.4

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,359,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 116,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,476,016 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.3	81.6	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	50.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,359,474	1,223,113	136,361
– Gross Longs:	405,799	3,222,184	261,377
– Gross Shorts:	1,765,273	1,999,071	125,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	91.9	95.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.9	-6.4	4.9

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,340,120 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 89,307 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,429,427 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.0	83.5	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	62.5	5.1
– Net Position:	-1,340,120	1,206,871	133,249
– Gross Longs:	460,211	4,790,468	427,616
– Gross Shorts:	1,800,331	3,583,597	294,367
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.2	90.6	95.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	7.0	11.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -556,931 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 79,525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -636,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	78.2	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.9	66.6	8.0
– Net Position:	-556,931	520,684	36,247
– Gross Longs:	513,976	3,501,136	392,754
– Gross Shorts:	1,070,907	2,980,452	356,507
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	68.0	81.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-1.4	-12.9

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -276,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -267,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.8	78.4	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	61.1	13.6
– Net Position:	-276,476	342,405	-65,929
– Gross Longs:	214,045	1,553,719	203,035
– Gross Shorts:	490,521	1,211,314	268,964
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	74.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	11.8	-20.7

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -136,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130,079 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.3	76.2	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	68.5	11.4
– Net Position:	-136,259	100,575	35,684
– Gross Longs:	121,982	996,728	184,452
– Gross Shorts:	258,241	896,153	148,768
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.0	48.5	74.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-0.2	-13.5

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -292,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -316,662 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	81.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.9	64.0	9.8
– Net Position:	-292,980	278,286	14,694
– Gross Longs:	115,577	1,290,226	169,381
– Gross Shorts:	408,557	1,011,940	154,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.0	32.3	51.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.6	-14.5	-13.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

17 Dec

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led this week by VIX & Russell-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the VIX & Russell-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the VIX (10,461 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (4,800 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,143 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-17,822 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-4,851 contracts), the Nikkei 225 (-627 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (-298 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,670,454	61	-65,083	55	21,495	43	43,588	55
Nikkei 225	14,756	28	-2,317	50	1,807	47	510	45
Nasdaq-Mini	337,236	100	8,104	51	-10,817	31	2,713	90
DowJones-Mini	112,076	85	3,451	88	199	29	-3,650	26
VIX	427,229	86	-46,316	78	45,724	18	592	99
Nikkei 225 Yen	40,280	17	9,714	64	-3,881	1	-5,833	89

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & VIX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (88 percent) and the VIX (78 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 Yen (64 percent) and S&P500-Mini (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores and above a 50 percent score.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (78.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (71.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (55.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (57.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (87.6 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (80.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (51.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (51.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (45.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (42.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (50.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (54.5 percent)
EAFE-Mini (9.3 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (14.1 percent)

DowJones-Mini & Nikkei 225 Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (85 percent) overwhelmingly leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (2 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-10 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-21.7 percent) vs VIX previous week (-23.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-10.4 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-8.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (85.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (2.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (8.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-7.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-7.4 percent)
Nikkei USD (-3.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (3.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-9.1 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-19.1 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -46,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 10,461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,777 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	47.6	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	36.9	7.2
– Net Position:	-46,316	45,724	592
– Gross Longs:	97,484	203,215	31,240
– Gross Shorts:	143,800	157,491	30,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.3	17.6	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.7	17.6	27.2

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -65,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.6	70.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.1	69.9	9.8
– Net Position:	-65,083	21,495	43,588
– Gross Longs:	257,533	1,888,239	306,616
– Gross Shorts:	322,616	1,866,744	263,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	42.9	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	7.7	5.5

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	58.7	12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	58.5	16.0
– Net Position:	3,451	199	-3,650
– Gross Longs:	25,968	65,779	14,302
– Gross Shorts:	22,517	65,580	17,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.6	28.5	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	85.5	-68.2	4.2

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 8,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.2	62.9	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	66.1	12.4
– Net Position:	8,104	-10,817	2,713
– Gross Longs:	71,616	212,001	44,538
– Gross Shorts:	63,512	222,818	41,825
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.4	30.9	89.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.1	-5.4	8.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -50,629 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	80.4	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.2	73.6	5.0
– Net Position:	-50,629	43,204	7,425
– Gross Longs:	65,483	513,991	39,542
– Gross Shorts:	116,112	470,787	32,117
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	53.2	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	1.3	27.4

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	66.1	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	53.8	17.5
– Net Position:	-2,317	1,807	510
– Gross Longs:	1,910	9,748	3,098
– Gross Shorts:	4,227	7,941	2,588
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.1	46.9	45.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	4.4	-4.6

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -54,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,858 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.0	92.0	2.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.0	81.0	1.2
– Net Position:	-54,709	50,564	4,145
– Gross Longs:	22,631	419,808	9,840
– Gross Shorts:	77,340	369,244	5,695
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.3	89.5	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	5.7	16.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

17 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (27,046 contracts) with Corn (9,224 contracts), Cotton (7,547 contracts), Coffee (2,308 contracts), Live Cattle (1,300 contracts) and Cocoa (392 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-58,077 contracts), Soybean Meal (-31,907 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,060 contracts), Lean Hogs (-3,765 contracts) and Soybeans (-2,759 contracts).

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Dec-12-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,650,245	23	151,599	3	-175,326	98	23,727	28
Gold	469,939	22	188,233	60	-212,808	42	24,575	46
Silver	134,281	25	28,458	59	-47,496	36	19,038	72
Copper	176,034	23	-4,004	29	5,131	76	-1,127	11
Palladium	21,309	72	-10,638	6	10,920	97	-282	25
Platinum	74,004	62	7,709	33	-11,713	69	4,004	22
Natural Gas	1,412,602	90	-111,617	32	88,022	71	23,595	36
Brent	126,671	7	-17,577	78	15,753	24	1,824	37
Heating Oil	302,940	37	27,120	72	-41,287	43	14,167	40
Soybeans	718,648	38	17,539	1	-216	97	-17,323	62
Corn	1,251,100	8	-101,215	8	131,530	94	-30,315	81
Coffee	210,390	25	36,568	65	-38,176	38	1,608	33
Sugar	781,527	21	107,392	29	-129,631	70	22,239	31
Wheat	347,460	35	-40,021	40	48,543	63	-8,522	29

Strength Scores led by Cocoa & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cocoa (79 percent) and Coffee (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybeans (1 percent), Lean Hogs (6 percent), Corn (8 percent), Soybean Oil (15 percent) and Cotton (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (7.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (6.6 percent)
Sugar (29.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (50.5 percent)
Coffee (64.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (62.6 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (14.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (48.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (66.4 percent)
Live Cattle (20.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (6.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.4 percent)
Cotton (19.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.7 percent)
Cocoa (78.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (78.2 percent)
Wheat (39.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (20.9 percent)

Wheat & Coffee top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Wheat (21 percent) and Coffee (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities.

Sugar (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-19 percent), Soybean Oil (-18 percent) and Live Cattle (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-1.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (-8.8 percent)
Sugar (-38.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.4 percent)
Coffee (14.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (16.5 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-17.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (5.7 percent)
Live Cattle (-12.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-20.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (-8.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-3.3 percent)
Cotton (-6.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.1 percent)
Cocoa (-2.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-10.3 percent)
Wheat (20.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -101,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,224 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	46.8	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	36.3	13.0
– Net Position:	-101,215	131,530	-30,315
– Gross Longs:	266,655	585,265	132,780
– Gross Shorts:	367,870	453,735	163,095
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.9	93.6	80.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	2.6	-6.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 107,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -58,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,469 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	52.2	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	68.8	6.6
– Net Position:	107,392	-129,631	22,239
– Gross Longs:	200,473	408,051	74,109
– Gross Shorts:	93,081	537,682	51,870
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.4	69.7	31.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.4	39.5	-29.9

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 36,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.9	37.5	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.5	55.6	4.7
– Net Position:	36,568	-38,176	1,608
– Gross Longs:	67,149	78,878	11,508
– Gross Shorts:	30,581	117,054	9,900
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.9	37.9	33.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.7	-16.2	25.3

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,539 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	53.5	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	53.6	9.7
– Net Position:	17,539	-216	-17,323
– Gross Longs:	107,860	384,698	52,732
– Gross Shorts:	90,321	384,914	70,055
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	96.6	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	0.6	-6.9

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,804 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,060 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.6	49.7	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	49.5	5.9
– Net Position:	-5,804	699	5,105
– Gross Longs:	86,954	232,182	32,465
– Gross Shorts:	92,758	231,483	27,360
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	14.8	83.0	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	16.1	-0.8

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 84,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -31,907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	38.0	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.7	60.3	6.2
– Net Position:	84,744	-107,389	22,645
– Gross Longs:	136,307	183,339	52,503
– Gross Shorts:	51,563	290,728	29,858
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	49.8	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.4	17.7	15.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,758 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,300 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,458 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	38.9	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	51.8	13.2
– Net Position:	38,758	-34,044	-4,714
– Gross Longs:	71,116	103,176	30,336
– Gross Shorts:	32,358	137,220	35,050
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.7	81.1	64.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	12.0	8.7

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	40.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.5	23.5	10.8
– Net Position:	-28,455	32,876	-4,421
– Gross Longs:	54,212	77,622	16,150
– Gross Shorts:	82,667	44,746	20,571
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.3	99.7	63.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	11.5	-11.7

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 7,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,557 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.7	44.7	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.5	51.9	5.6
– Net Position:	14,104	-14,147	43
– Gross Longs:	66,280	88,023	11,017
– Gross Shorts:	52,176	102,170	10,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.3	80.8	16.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.4	7.1	-12.0

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 67,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	27.0	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.6	51.2	4.4
– Net Position:	67,303	-70,652	3,349
– Gross Longs:	118,747	79,020	16,150
– Gross Shorts:	51,444	149,672	12,801
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.6	21.1	30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	1.5	7.2

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -40,021 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,046 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	38.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	25.0	10.5
– Net Position:	-40,021	48,543	-8,522
– Gross Longs:	108,383	135,276	28,033
– Gross Shorts:	148,404	86,733	36,555
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.7	62.8	29.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-14.9	-41.2

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