COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Platinum & Palladium

December 17, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,576 contracts) with Palladium (614 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-15,311 contracts), Silver (-7,845 contracts), Copper (-2,010 contracts) and Steel (-318 contracts).


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold469,93922188,23360-212,8084224,57546
Silver134,2812528,45859-47,4963619,03872
Copper176,03423-4,004295,13176-1,12711
Palladium21,30972-10,638610,92097-28225
Platinum74,004627,70933-11,713694,00422

 


Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (98 percent) and Gold (60 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (6 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (59.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (66.7 percent)
Silver (58.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.1 percent)
Copper (28.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (30.3 percent)
Platinum (33.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (27.4 percent)
Palladium (5.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.6 percent)
Steel (97.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (98.8 percent)

 

Silver & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (12 percent) and Copper (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-7 percent) and Palladium (-3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (23.8 percent)
Silver (11.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (11.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.9 percent)
Platinum (-7.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.0 percent)
Palladium (-2.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-0.1 percent)
Steel (8.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (20.9 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 188,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 203,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.222.59.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.267.84.7
– Net Position:188,233-212,80824,575
– Gross Longs:273,536105,71046,457
– Gross Shorts:85,303318,51821,882
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.3 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.941.845.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-11.614.7

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,458 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,845 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.528.222.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.363.68.6
– Net Position:28,458-47,49619,038
– Gross Longs:55,68437,85030,602
– Gross Shorts:27,22685,34611,564
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.936.472.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-17.434.2

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,004 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.338.97.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.636.08.3
– Net Position:-4,0045,131-1,127
– Gross Longs:65,63068,47613,473
– Gross Shorts:69,63463,34514,600
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.575.911.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-11.00.7

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,709 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.728.110.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.343.94.9
– Net Position:7,709-11,7134,004
– Gross Longs:36,78920,8047,620
– Gross Shorts:29,08032,5173,616
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.469.321.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.25.18.6

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,638 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.759.77.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:74.78.49.1
– Net Position:-10,63810,920-282
– Gross Longs:5,27012,7191,653
– Gross Shorts:15,9081,7991,935
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.696.624.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.54.8-22.4

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -318 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.569.73.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.969.60.6
– Net Position:-48523462
– Gross Longs:4,67113,862587
– Gross Shorts:5,15613,839125
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 14.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.61.382.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-9.943.0

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.